Beane's drafting record...new data

[eball]

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

[The Frankish Reich]

12 minutes ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It's good! 

Wouldn't we all love to have Rousseau turn into prime Von, or Cook turn into prime, umm, CJ Spiller (sorry). But you start off with a mile long lead if you draft a franchise QB, and lots of other guys are big to significant contributors.

[GoBills808]

Must compare w rest of league

[Yobogoya!]

I mean if you put me in charge of a team for 5 years, a lot of my draft picks are going to be starters. 
 

Doesn’t mean they’re going to be particularly high quality starters, lol

[Low Positive]

17 minutes ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

Homer! Get your head out of the sand. Do you remember Wyatt Teller? Or the Jacksonville game? /s

 

But seriously. Everyone loves the Bengals drafting now, but remember they took John Ross and Billy Price, who are both out of football, in the first round in back-to-back years (2017 and 2018). And Ross was picked right before Mahomes!

 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

[Mango]

Is 48% good? I honestly don't know. 

 

One thing I think is important to remember is that The Bills are no longer peers to the rest of the league. They operate in a world with KC, Cincinatti, and maybe Philly. So the measure for McBeane isn't "have they done a good job". It is have they done a good enough job compared to KC and CIN (and maybe a couple other teams). We aren't really measured against Pittsburgh anymore. 

 

This era of Bills football will go down as awesome no matter how it ends. Sort of like the 2005-2007 Sabres. Great team. Unfortunate injuries and getting flat in the playoffs. But ultimately Lindy and Darcy did great by the franchise in that era. McBeane will likely have a similar reputation in Buffalo sports history if they don't win it all.

[Low Positive]

Just now, Mango said:

Is 48% good? I honestly don't know. 

 

One thing I think is important to remember is that The Bills are no longer peers to the rest of the league. They operate in a world with KC, Cincinatti, and maybe Philly. So the measure for McBeane isn't "have they done a good job". It is have they done a good enough job compared to KC and CIN (and maybe a couple other teams). We aren't really measured against Pittsburgh anymore. 

 

This era of Bills football will go down as awesome no matter how it ends. Sort of like the 2005-2007 Sabres. Great team. Unfortunate injuries and getting flat in the playoffs. But ultimately Lindy and Darcy did great by the franchise in that era. McBeane will likely have a similar reputation in Buffalo sports history if they don't win it all.

Buffalo would have its championship if not for some sweaty shin pads. 

[Mango]

Just now, FrenchConnection said:

Buffalo would have its championship if not for some sweaty shin pads. 

 

And hockey superstitions!

[BillsVet]

The FB is a starter but poster doesn't know he's a UDFA?  A guy who had a 14% and 17% snap count on offense these past 2 seasons?  Not quite.  

 

The quality or better starters (top half at their position across the NFL) on that list are Allen, Knox, Oliver, Rousseau, Johnson and Bass.  Torrence is a complete unknown as a rookie, so counting him as a "starter" is weak for this exercise and Bernard had less than 11% of their total defensive snaps last year. 

 

But let's include (even though Beane didn't take them) Tre, Puff Dawkins and Milano.  That's 9 quality starters out of 25 total starters from 2017-2022.  And of those 9, 4 are RD1 picks, 1 is RD2, 1 is RD3, 1 is RD4, 1 is RD5, and the RD6 pick is their kicker.

 

Not a stellar draft record.  More pedestrian with a franchise QB as has been mentioned previously. Heck, I'd say McD did better without Beane in 2017 save for 2018. 

 

[AuntieEm]

29 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

I mean if you put me in charge of a team for 5 years, a lot of my draft picks are going to be starters. 
 

Doesn’t mean they’re going to be particularly high quality starters, lol

 

Teams without quality starters don't often luck into 13 wins.  

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

The FB is a starter but poster doesn't know he's a UDFA?  A guy who had a 14% and 17% snap count on offense these past 2 seasons?  Not quite.  

 

The quality or better starters (top half at their position across the NFL) on that list are Allen, Knox, Oliver, Rousseau, Johnson and Bass.  Torrence is a complete unknown as a rookie, so counting him as a "starter" is weak for this exercise and Bernard had less than 11% of their total defensive snaps last year. 

 

But let's include (even though Beane didn't take them) Tre, Puff Dawkins and Milano.  That's 9 quality starters out of 25 total starters from 2017-2022.  And of those 9, 4 are RD1 picks, 1 is RD2, 1 is RD3, 1 is RD4, 1 is RD5, and the RD6 pick is their kicker.

 

Not a stellar draft record.  More pedestrian with a franchise QB as has been mentioned previously. Heck, I'd say McD did better without Beane in 2017 save for 2018. 

 

 

guarantee better than more teams than you think

[Yobogoya!]

14 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

 

Teams without quality starters don't often luck into 13 wins.  

This topic is about this year’s roster bud, last year’s wins don’t mean too much. Either way, I didn’t say anything about the overall quality of our roster. 
 

But is it really enough to say that after five years the starting roster is mostly the GM’s draft picks? Or should we be looking at the quality level of those players and how strong their contributions are? Just a thought. 

[msw2112]

I don't know if this statistic is good without comparing it to other teams' numbers.  Subjectively, I think that Beane is an excellent GM overall and maybe average to slightly-above-average when it comes to drafting players.  There are other aspects to the GM job that he's very good with.  Cap management, pro personnel/free agency, media management, culture-setting, etc.

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by freddyjj

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

WOFer Phil Hanson

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

The recent criticisms havent been that Beane cant draft at all, or that he wastes all of his picks.

 

The criticisms have been that he hasnt turned his early (1st/2nd) picks into home runs.

 

If the bar is simply "decent starter" then sure. He can fill holes, no problem.

 

But Edmunds was lackluster when home runs like Shaq Leonard and Fred Warner were there. Ed Oliver is, well, Ed Oliver. And then there's a string of 2nd round picks that have been pretty much flops.'

 

So this data and stat doesnt exactly refute the recent criticism on Bills drafting. It's merely looking at it from a different metric which really just lowers the bar in that discussion.

 

I'm not much of a hindsight guy since it's too easy to go back and criticize, but on a lot of those wasted 2nds there were plenty of fans online begging to use the pick on another player, and the fan-favorite players have gone on to make major impacts to their teams while we have cut/traded guys away.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

WOFer Phil Hanson

 

More recently, Aaron Schobel. But yeah, havent been many since Bruce.

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What does he mean by early contributions??…. I mean Bernard? Dude was awful last year and is being forced to start BECAUSE of where he was drafted and every other scrub they have at the position. 
 

Beanes not horrible with the draft but great or even good? Eh. He’s failed to find any superstars outside of Allen and his day 2 picks have been trash.

 

Yeah, "contributing starter" could just mean we couldnt find anyone better to fill that hole. Doesnt mean they are great.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

It is true that Oliver, Benford, Bernard, Brown are starters.....

[vincec]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

WOFer Phil Hanson

Aaron Schobel?

[Breakout Squad]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

Chris Kelsay!! 😝

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Must compare w rest of league

Also, "starter" is a useless metric. 
For example, I could say 100% of the Bills starters have been acquired through the draft, trade or free agency by Brandon Beane. 
I could make the same comment about pretty much anyone who has been a GM for five seasons or more.  

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

The criticism of Beane has never been his ability to draft contributors or even starters. It is his ability to draft difference makers. I still think that is the knock. He has one in 5 drafts to this point (exluding this year's rookies) and that is Josh Allen.

 

He doesn't have many true busts. But he doesn't have a lot of slam dunks either.

[HOUSE]

I didn't like DK Metcalf either, we needed a guard and we got one.

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The criticism of Beane has never been his ability to draft contributors or even starters. It is his ability to draft difference makers. I still think that is the knock. He has one in 5 drafts to this point (exluding this year's rookies) and that is Josh Allen.

 

He doesn't have many true busts. But he doesn't have a lot of slam dunks either.

Difference makers aren't available where we've been drafting lately

 

Chiefs aren't getting those kinds of guys either

[Not Applicable]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

This era of Bills football will go down as awesome no matter how it ends. Sort of like the 2005-2007 Sabres. Great team. Unfortunate injuries and getting flat in the playoffs. But ultimately Lindy and Darcy did great by the franchise in that era. McBeane will likely have a similar reputation in Buffalo sports history if they don't win it all.

If they don't reach a Super Bowl, McDermott will go down as the coach who choked away a championship in 2021, and Beane will be remembered for lucking into Allen before blowing multiple high-round picks on defensive players rather than offensive weapons for his QB. And that's how they should be remembered.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I would think there has to be some sort of measure of whether or not the players that are starting or actually any good? Above average, below average, etc.

 

Spencer Brown seems like the perfect example of this. Yes he is starting. Is that a good thing?

 

 

[Mango]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The criticism of Beane has never been his ability to draft contributors or even starters. It is his ability to draft difference makers. I still think that is the knock. He has one in 5 drafts to this point (exluding this year's rookies) and that is Josh Allen.

 

He doesn't have many true busts. But he doesn't have a lot of slam dunks either.

My criticism actually goes a little further. But I do agree. 
 

I don’t like that we:

 

drafted 3 DE in the top 100 recently and only 1 is under contract next year. Meaning we’ll likely have to draft another one high…again. Rinse and repeat for RB. Those are 5 top 100 picks on 2 positions and none will be on the roster. We basically lit them on fire.

 

Over spend in FA. We’ve had multiple years where we had a top 5 paid DL, LB, and/or OL and at no point were any of those units top 5. Maybe DL was at or just outside but we’re splitting hairs. I don’t mind spending, and spending big on position groups. But if you spend top 5 resources (cash/draft picks) you’ve over invested and have a negative return. 

 

I think both of these in tandem is why we are so tight against the cap with reasonable cap hits from Allen/Diggs and why I think the team is due for a bit of a step back in the next season or two. You just can’t invest 6 top 100 picks and not have anything to show for it and expect to keep the train on the tracks consistently. 
 

 

[AlfaBill]

4 hours ago, Yobogoya! said:

I mean if you put me in charge of a team for 5 years, a lot of my draft picks are going to be starters. 
 

Doesn’t mean they’re going to be particularly high quality starters, lol

True. But how do they manage to win lotsa games and the division year after year?

Edited September 6, 2023 by AlfaBill

[Yobogoya!]

7 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

True. But how do they manage to win lotsa games and the division year after year?

Basically: Josh Allen.

 

He may not be perfect but he’s an elite QB and that counts for a lot in this league. And I wouldn’t say his supporting cast is a dumper fire - it’s just lacking in top shelf talent other than Diggs. 
 

I mean Oliver and Rousseau and good players, but have either of them taken over and dominated a game? That’s what those criticizing Beane’s drafting are looking for. 

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Difference makers aren't available where we've been drafting lately

 

Chiefs aren't getting those kinds of guys either

 

Some truth to that, sure. But they did draft Humphrey and Smith who are among the best at their IOL positions in the NFL. IOL isn't necessarily a difference maker position, agreed. But they did draft elite level players at C and RG. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Some truth to that, sure. But they did draft Humphrey and Smith who are among the best at their IOL positions in the NFL. IOL isn't necessarily a difference maker position, agreed. But they did draft elite level players at C and RG. 

Smith was a late round guy, he's like Taron Johnson value, Humphrey sure is good value but I can't call a center a difference maker

 

I just am not seeing these superior drafts, esp early rounds, coming out of KC that are the supposed difference between us

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Difference makers aren't available where we've been drafting lately

 

Chiefs aren't getting those kinds of guys either

 

Shaq Leonard, Fred Warner, DK Metcalf, and AJ Brown were all 2nd round picks.

 

Creed Humphrey was available in the late 2nd and is a difference maker as the Center and leader of the OLine. Drafted by the Chiefs.

 

Plenty of difference makers have been available to us in the late 1st and 2nd rounds.

 

No one is expecting the big Top-10 type player where we pick, and it is tougher to find when picking late, but hot talent is there in the first 2 rounds, and we've consistently missed it.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Shaq Leonard, Fred Warner, DK Metcalf, and AJ Brown were all 2nd round picks.

 

Creed Humphrey was available in the late 2nd and is a difference maker as the Center and leader of the OLine. Drafted by the Chiefs.

 

Plenty of difference makers have been available to us in the late 1st and 2nd rounds.

 

No one is expecting the big Top-10 type player where we pick, and it is tougher to find when picking late, but hot talent is there in the first 2 rounds, and we've consistently missed it.

Creed Humphrey notwithstanding, so have the Chiefs is my point

[billsfan89]

How good the Bills' drafting has been in recent seasons will be heavily revealed by the end of this season. 2017-2018 were both home run drafts. The Bills got 3 high-quality starters in 2017 plus a future first-round pick (Tre, Dawkins and Milano plus the 2018 KC first). 2018 was of course another home run. Josh is a franchise QB, T. Johnson is a very good "unsung hero" on the defensive side of the ball, Edumonds for all his ups and downs was a decent to good starter, and H. Phillips was productive as a defensive starter for a season or two. Also, Siran Neal has been a good ST role-player for the team. 

 

2019 was decent, Oliver has not been the "Pro-Bowl" caliber player you would expect to get as a top 10 pick but he has been solid, Knox was a nice pickup and Singletary provided some value for four years at RB. 

 

2020 was solid, factoring in not having a first-round pick (not counting Diggs as part of the draft class but weighing the draft class differently due to lacking a top pick). AJE has not lived up to his second round billing but turned in a solid season 3 and hopefully in year 4 is more productive, the Bills may or may not get "good" value for a late second round pick but they certainly got some production. Gabe Davis has been a productive WR esp for where he was picked and Bass has locked in on being one of the best kickers while Dane Jackson has held down as a solid defensive contributor/starter. 

 

2019-2020 were not great draft classes but they were not bad ones either. But the Bills will need to get more "impact" and "high-end" player from 2021 draft classes and beyond if they hope to sustain success. 

 

2021- Groot needs to develop into the high-end starter he was developed to be, The Bills will also need to get production out of Spencer Brown and maybe something out of Hamlin to really get good "value" out of the draft class. This season will tell if Brown can be a viable RT and what Groot can provide. Getting two good starters out of a draft class and a nice depth player is not bad at all. But getting only one starter unless they are an All Pro at a key position is not going to be great. 

 

2022- If James Cook locks down RB, Elam and Benford are good corners and Shakir or Benford develop into decent starters or at least role players the draft will have turned out good. I know Benford has already locked down a starting position and Cook and Elam flashed good play their rookie seasons but they will need some of these players to develop. 

 

2023- If Torrence and Kincaid are high-end starters for the offense and one other player develops the Bills will have done a solid job in 2023 esp factoring in they got a pair of sixth round picks for trading down. 

 

TLDR- 2017-2018 were great drafts, 2019-2020 were OK drafts jury is still out on 2021-2023. The more recent 2021-2023 drafts will need to pan out closer to the 2017-18 classes if the Bills want to be more successful. At worst McBeane is a solid to good drafter but will need to be better to sustain success.

[Chaos]

42 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

True. But how do they manage to win lotsa games and the division year after year?

Simple. Josh Allen.  Put Allen on most other NFL teams and they make the playoffs this year. This is only part of the goal.  They have a top 1 to 3 QB.   And can't finish in the top 1 to 3.  Its either the coaching or the rest of the lineup  Pick on. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Smith was a late round guy, he's like Taron Johnson value, Humphrey sure is good value but I can't call a center a difference maker

 

I just am not seeing these superior drafts, esp early rounds, coming out of KC that are the supposed difference between us

 

I agree that the positions they have hit on are not premium positions. But Smith is a top 5 RG. Humphrey a top 5 C and Sneed a top 5 nickel corner. And they have had starters from round 2 where we have had busts. The 2021 and 2022 drafts are big wins for KC over Buffalo

 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The 2021 and 2022 drafts are big wins for KC over Buffalo

Yeah, but did the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, oh wait, nevermind. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Simple. Josh Allen.  Put Allen on most other NFL teams and they make the playoffs this year. This is only part of the goal.  They have a top 1 to 3 QB.   And can't finish in the top 1 to 3.  Its either the coaching or the rest of the lineup  Pick on. 

 

They have been top 3 in the regular season 2 of the past 3 seasons. They haven't made or won a Superbowl. We all know that. But when it gets to that point it becomes about more than just a QB.... talent, coaching, matchup and luck are all variables. 

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They have been top 3 in the regular season 2 of the past 3 seasons. They haven't made or won a Superbowl. We all know that. But when it gets to that point it becomes about more than just a QB.... talent, coaching, matchup and luck are all variables. 

Hence my exact comment that it is the rest of the lineup or coaching.