Beane's drafting record...new data

[HappyDays]

56 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'd love to see your argument for taking Rousseau and the bums over those Chiefs players.

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

I actually disagree that the records would not be different. I think that IOL is and has been a major Achilles’ heel on this Bills team since 2020. But I hear what you are saying, the lack of a true defensive superstar has also hurt, a lot. Von’s injury was a major blow. He was also available the year prior via trade in which he remained healthy for the Rams run but hey.

 

I will continue to hammer this point forever, which I think you would agree. The biggest difference between the best season of this era (2020) and every other season is that 2020 had the best overall OL and overall receiving group. The defense wasn’t even that good that season and it was still our best year.

 

Now, do I think we win the Super Bowl if we swap classes? No. Do I think we win the Super Bowl if we sign JuJu instead of Crowder? Also no.

 

But it’s a combination of being second or third best in the conference in FA/draft and other major decisions that, surprise surprise, keep us second or third best in the conference. 

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think that IOL is and has been a major Achilles’ heel on this Bills team since 2020.

 

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

 

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do I think we win the Super Bowl if we sign JuJu instead of Crowder?

 

I actually think we would have ended up the #1 seed with JuJu as our WR2 instead of Davis. Having a much more efficient player in that role would have been enough to make a difference in at least one of our losses IMO. The Jets and Dolphins losses in particular featured several negative plays from Davis and those games were decided by just a couple of plays. Flip one of those to a win and we get the #1 seed. The Bengals regular season game wouldn't have even mattered. If we head into the playoffs as the #1 seed that changes everything.

 

So if you want to look at small decisions that had a big impact on the outcome of the season, that one free agency decision was monumentally more important than us failing to draft a great center.

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

 

 

I actually think we would have ended up the #1 seed with JuJu as our WR2 instead of Davis. Having a much more efficient player in that role would have been enough to make a difference in at least one of our losses IMO. The Jets and Dolphins losses in particular featured several negative plays from Davis and those games were decided by just a couple of plays. Flip one of those to a win and we get the #1 seed. The Bengals regular season game wouldn't have even mattered. If we head into the playoffs as the #1 seed that changes everything.

 

So if you want to look at small decisions that had a big impact on the outcome of the season, that one free agent decision was monumentally more important than us failing to draft a great center.

I think that's likely true

 

McKenzie playing important snaps, Davis an inefficient wr2, a better guy in FA solves both issues that hurt the offense

 

 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

 

 

I actually think we would have ended up the #1 seed with JuJu as our WR2 instead of Davis. Having a much more efficient player in that role would have been enough to make a difference in at least one of our losses IMO. The Jets and Dolphins losses in particular featured several negative plays from Davis and those games were decided by just a couple of plays. Flip one of those to a win and we get the #1 seed. The Bengals regular season game wouldn't have even mattered. If we head into the playoffs as the #1 seed that changes everything.

 

So if you want to look at small decisions that had a big impact on the outcome of the season, that one free agency decision was monumentally more important than us failing to draft a great center.

 

I personally don’t agree on the JuJu thing and think you may be overstating his value a tiny bit, but I hear what you’re saying. I would say that the #1 seed thing is a little overblown given that we lost at home. I think the Jaguars may have beaten us in the divisional round last year.

 

Ultimately, I think our chances of winning an SB last year went out the window after the Hamlin incident. Too much trauma for a team to remain locked in (understandably so)

 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Correct, hence all of the "depth" that we have on the team.  

 

Depth is great, when you have above-average starters, particularly difference makers.  

 

It is problematic for Cap reasons however if you constantly have to pay out to get those difference makers, often via high-risk contracts.  

 

Von Miller 

Floyd 

Diggs

McGovern 

Hyde 

Jones Poyer 

 

All of them either have some risk associated with their signings or cost a lot more than third or fourth year players would that played at their levels given where we've drafted.  

 

Torrence pending, Beane has yet to draft an above-average OL-man

He has yet to draft an above average WR  (Davis?  ... by the majority opinion here, no)  

He has yet to draft an above average RB.  Cook pending   

Kincaid is pending, Knox is above average, but only marginally so.  

 

IMO Edmunds was an above-average LB, but it seems that a majority opinion here disagrees.  Otherwise he has yet to draft an above-average LB.  

Rousseau may be above-average, Oliver is above-average, but given where he was drafted has obviously underperformed a 9th overall and the 2nd DT off the board, with several DTs taken after him having outperformed him.  

Beane has yet to draft an above-average DB besides Johnson who's also above-average but not by a lot.  And that after having come from the DB coaching ranks, having played DB, and having spent more picks by position (8) on DBs than any other.  

 

JMO ... I know you disagree.   

 

 

 

I don't much disagree with that actually. I think Dawson Knox and Taron Johnson are better than "marginally above average" but that apart I don't disagree with much else. 

 

Beane doesn't draft many outright busts... guys who just can't play. Cody Ford was one, personally I think Boogie Basham was another but let's see how he does with the Giants before we sign off on that. And then there is Vosean Joseph in round 5, Luke Tenuta in round 6, Austin Proehl in round 7. That is probably it. In all of his drafts. It is likely among the lowest outrigh miss rate of any GM. 

 

But I think the only two guys he has drafted who are top 5 at their position are Josh Allen and the aforemention Taron Johnson at nickel..... and both of those came in his first class in 2018. He needs a pick to hit really big sooner or later or the cap situation will be increasingly difficult to manage. Maybe Torrence or Kincaid or James Cook in year 2 are it. Gotta keep pur fingers crossed. We need some of our best players to still be on their rookie deals. 

[eball]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea it’s not “new data” at all… nor meaningful. 

 

You’re such a tool.  And a one-trick pony.

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't much disagree with that actually. I think Dawson Knox and Taron Johnson are better than "marginally above average" but that apart I don't disagree with much else.

 

Thank you

 

Again, we're getting into definitions, we probably agree for the most part, but the point is that neither is an impact player much less premier, where Beane has fallen short.  

 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Beane doesn't draft many outright busts... guys who just can't play. Cody Ford was one, personally I think Boogie Basham was another but let's see how he does with the Giants before we sign off on that. And then there is Vosean Joseph in round 5, Luke Tenuta in round 6, Austin Proehl in round 7. That is probably it. In all of his drafts. It is likely among the lowest outrigh miss rate of any GM.

 

Also, we can obviously discount 6th and 7th round picks since little is expected to come from them generally speaking.  Typically if one gets a steady role-player or depth player that's a very favorable development.  

 

Otherwise let's not forget Moss, and Elam and/or Bernard may also end up there.  

 

But let's also keep in mind, that good GM's aren't known as being good due to their ability to stock a roster via their Drafts of depth caliber and otherwise average or thereabouts players.  

 

 

[RyanC883]

6 hours ago, Dopey said:

So 22 receptions and ZERO TDs is a difference maker!?  That’s what Moore had last year. Stop that.
If you’re referring to Pacheco(Pacco), he was ok, but it’s a little early to call him a difference maker. CEH has similar stats his rookie season for KC and we know how that turned out. Even KC has misses. Crazy talk just to try and complain about Beane. 

 

What this team has accomplished the past few seasons is anything but mediocre. Again. Crazy talk. 

 

you forgot about Creed Humphrey.  Also, Oliver was taken No. 9 (not late), Edmunds 19, so not all of these picks that have turned out to be non difference makers have been “late picks”.  

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But I think the only two guys he has drafted who are top 5 at their position are Josh Allen and the aforemention Taron Johnson at nickel..... and both of those came in his first class in 2018. He needs a pick to hit really big sooner or later or the cap situation will be increasingly difficult to manage. Maybe Torrence or Kincaid or James Cook in year 2 are it. Gotta keep pur fingers crossed. We need some of our best players to still be on their rookie deals. 

 

Agree.  I'm hopeful of both Torrence and Kincaid.  Cook not so much since he's never had more than 140 touches, 110 in the NFL, and he doesn't come acrossa as being a large robust RB that can take that kind of wear.  We'll see though, I'm slightly hopeful there too.  At the same time, we can survive and win a Championship without a top-10 RB, particularly w/ Allen at the helm.  

 

But Allen carries the perceptions that Beane is good.  When I look at this roster without Allen on it, I see better rosters apart from the QB position in numerous years during our drought.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Also, we can obviously discount 6th and 7th round picks since little is expected to come from them generally speaking.  Typically if one gets a steady role-player or depth player that's a very favorable development.  

 

Otherwise let's not forget Moss, and Elam and/or Bernard may also end up there.  

 

But let's also keep in mind, that good GM's aren't known as being good due to their ability to stock a roster via their Drafts of depth caliber and otherwise average or thereabouts players.  

 

The reason I don't exclude 6th and 7th rounders is because I wouldn't exclude the successes he has had there - Tyler Bass, Christian Benford (potentially) and Dane Jackson in particular. So don't think it is fair to include the 6th and 7th round hits but not the misses. Though obviously those misses hurt less. 

 

Elam and Bernard fair, too soon to say. I think on Moss he can play in the league. He isn't great and he was overdrafted but as a short yardage back, good in pass protection and actually a good pass catcher he is a backup level player. 

 

On your final point, actually often they are. It is a really important part of the job. If you can draft the number of starting and solid backup level players Beane has in his drafts that is a way of managing your roster really effectively. GMs who don't do that lose their jobs pretty quickly. I agree drafting stars matters too and I have made this criticism if Beane for a number of years now. Lots of 6s and 7s not enough 9s and 10s. But you only have to look at the depth defensively last year with all the injuries to see that the 6s and 7s do matter, they will enable you to ride our injury crises better than other teams. Without the 9s and 10s they won't win you a championship though. 

[Chandler#81]

13 hours ago, vincec said:

Aaron Schobel?

On the Wall of Fame? No. Ergo, no.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agree.  I'm hopeful of both Torrence and Kincaid.  Cook not so much since he's never had more than 140 touches, 110 in the NFL, and he doesn't come acrossa as being a large robust RB that can take that kind of wear.  We'll see though, I'm slightly hopeful there too.  At the same time, we can survive and win a Championship without a top-10 RB, particularly w/ Allen at the helm.  

 

But Allen carries the perceptions that Beane is good.  When I look at this roster without Allen on it, I see better rosters apart from the QB position in numerous years during our drought.  

 

 

 

There were some. Definitely. The 2015 roster was, aside from QB the most talented I think I have seen in Buffalo on paper. Sadly not only was the QB underwhelming the coaching was horrible. 

 

But at the same time the Bills still have a top 3rd of the league roster even aside from Allen. It isn't as good as San Fran or Philly, or Cincy, or probably Dallas.... but I think it's about on a par with KC. 

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

4). The nfl gods didn’t rule in our favor.  Injuries and random bs that tends to avoid the SB champion.  

[Mango]

13 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Aaron Schobel was the last DE draft to really hit. Schobel had 54 sacks in a 5 season span from 2002-2006 and another double-digit sack season with 10 sacks in 2009. All in all 78 sacks in 9 seasons which I would qualify as a very good pick. 

 

From 2002-2016 the Bills invested 4 picks in the top 2 rounds at DE. 2002-2003 they drafted Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denny, both were more or less decent role players at best. 2009 they drafted Aaron Maybin in the top 10 which was a huge miss (esp with Orakpo there) and then in 2016 the Bills drafted Shaq Lawson who after a sluggish start played decently in a contract year and then came back to the Bills on the cheap and is a solid role player. 

 

The Bills have under the McBeane era invested 3 picks in the first 2 rounds at DE. Boogie has already been traded. Groot and AJE are still on the roster but AJE is looking more like he is a fringe starter at best. Groot the jury is still out on. 

 

Given that since Schobel they have spent 7 picks in the first two rounds on the position it is really hard to think they haven't had at least one "solid hit" (I would say a player producing 2-3 double-digit sack seasons and some other 8ish sack years) unless AJE has an unexpected breakout the only hope for a home grown DE hit is Groot at this point. 

The kicker for me is that next year Groot and Miller are the only two DE under contract. We are - $33M over the cap for 2024 right now. 
 

Look for one, maybe even 2 DE taken high again. 
 

I expect a high pick for MLB as well.

OL and WR likely get pushed down the list. 

[Mango]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

Great post and I largely agree. I think it’s his FA spend plus the draft that put the team in a tough spot at times.

 

One thing about Bills v Chiefs draft comparisons. The Chiefs won the SB starting 4 rookies all year. That’s a big draft. 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No question that list of Chiefs picks is better (although it's fair to point out that they got two extra early picks by trading Tyreek Hill, which automatically gave them a 50% higher likelihold of finding good players).

 

But I think a better question in this conversation is: do the Bills and Chiefs trade records, playoffs included, over the last two years if those draft classes are swapped? Without hesitation my answer is no. None of those players made a huge difference for the Chiefs - they are all either role players or devalued positions or just pretty good. No stars at premium positions. None of them would have made a difference in any of our games and certainly not our last two playoff losses.

 

So if swapping the draft classes doesn't change our playoff fortunes or theirs, then it is fair to say that the discrepancy between us and the Chiefs is not because of Beane's somewhat lesser drafting in recent years.

 

IMO the discrepancy is mainly because of three major factors, in no particular order of importance:

 

1) They had 1 elite defensive player in each of their last two playoff runs. We had 0 elite defensive players.

2) They had superior coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs compared to us.

3) Beane's free agency signings have not been as effective as other contenders. For a $3.7 million cap hit the Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster - an effective WR2 with a 77.2% catch percentage and 933 yards. For a $1.975 million cap hit we got Jamison Crowder - a complete dud. That one example was far and away more impactful to our season vs. theirs last year than all of that draft value discrepancy combined.

 

The conversation around Beane's drafting is a red herring IMO.

 

 

Maybe not a 1:1 "guaranteed SB" results swap ,but I absolutely believe we improve enough to leapfrog them and get much better results.

 

Creed Humprhey was starting at Center for them in the 13 seconds game. If he isnt starting for them, and instead playing for us, maybe even a single play goes differently.

 

I also fully believe that with Humprhey, a young, strong, healthy (non-injured) road-grader, Josh gets that snap in the Vikings game and we go on to win. And that would change the entire course of last season.

 

I'll also add that it's only your opinion that Center is not a premium position. Getting a guy who is now an All-Pro AND Super Bowl champ is a Premium no matter where he plays. Let alone the guy who is making the protection calls and getting your QB the ball every play.

 

So yeah, swapping those draft classes absolutely changes our fortunes. With 2 glaring examples, and probably many more.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Creed Humprhey was starting at Center for them in the 13 seconds game. If he isnt starting for them, and instead playing for us, maybe even a single play goes differently.

 

In a shootout decided by a coin flip? I don't think the center on either side had anything to do with that outcome.

 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I also fully believe that with Humprhey, a young, strong, healthy (non-injured) road-grader, Josh gets that snap in the Vikings game and we go on to win. And that would change the entire course of last season.

 

Are we saying Morse was responsible for that fumbled snap? I thought the common belief was that Josh simply flubbed it.

 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I'll also add that it's only your opinion that Center is not a premium position. Getting a guy who is now an All-Pro AND Super Bowl champ is a Premium no matter where he plays.

 

It's not just my opinion, it's the common belief of everyone that makes decisions in the NFL. When is the last time a center only was drafted in the top 10? Currently only 6 centers have an AAV of over $10 million, and the highest paid center (Jason Kelce) has an AAV of $14.25 million.

 

Just to be clear I recognize that Humphrey was inarguably a much better pick than Basham. But that misstep has had no impact on our team's success. There have been much larger and more glaring blemishes on Beane's record.

[LabattBlue]

At the risk of repeating myself, Allen hides and makes up for the mistakes/defencies of McD & BB.   He alone has bought these 2 at least several years of job security. 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

In a shootout decided by a coin flip? I don't think the center on either side had anything to do with that outcome.

 

If it's a shootout decided by a coin flip, then I'd definitely argue removing one team's All Pro Center and putting him on the other team that has zero All Pro, or even Pro Bowl players, would absolutely affect the outcome.

 

One more Ed Oliver sack up the middle changes everything.

 

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Are we saying Morse was responsible for that fumbled snap? I thought the common belief was that Josh simply flubbed it.

 

No. Ultimately it's on Josh. I'm saying that I believe a lot of Josh's anxiety that caused the fumble was due to knowing his IOL was getting blown off the ball all day (all season), and that he'd have to get out quick.

 

Morse is a softer, pass-protecting Center. And by the Vikings game last year he had a bad elbow and a bad ankle.

 

I believe with the younger, healthy, stronger, road-grading Center, Josh feels more confident taking that snap and likely doesnt fumble.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

If you consider Bernard starting some sort of success then I guess it is good.  

I guess Cook starts but he is the third running back chosen on day 2 of recent drafts. 

Oliver is performing far below where he was drafted. Yet Benford, Davis, and Johnson are far exceeding their draft status.  

 

Nobody would question Beane's draft record if they had a Championship ring.  However, since they don't and there have been some high profile busts like Ford, Basham, Moss, Epenesa in the early rounds and the questionable use of 3rd round pick on smurf Linebackers there is legit reason to question his drafts.

 

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

If you consider Bernard starting some sort of success then I guess it is good.  

I guess Cook starts but he is the third running back chosen on day 2 of recent drafts. 

Oliver is performing far below where he was drafted. Yet Benford, Davis, and Johnson are far exceeding their draft status.  

 

Nobody would question Beane's draft record if they had a Championship ring.  However, since they don't and there have been some high profile busts like Ford, Basham, Moss, Epenesa in the early rounds and the questionable use of 3rd round pick on smurf Linebackers there is legit reason to question his drafts.

 

 

Every team has busts, the question is how does the busts in McBeane's tenure hold up to other teams? How does the late round finds measure up against what other teams do? I think you can safely say that the 2017-18 drafts were way better than the solid but unspectacular 2019-2020 drafts. And if this team does want to get over the hump the players drafted from 2021-2023 will have to develop better and produce more results than the 2019-2020 draft classes. 

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

On your final point, actually often they are. It is a really important part of the job. If you can draft the number of starting and solid backup level players Beane has in his drafts that is a way of managing your roster really effectively. GMs who don't do that lose their jobs pretty quickly. I agree drafting stars matters too and I have made this criticism if Beane for a number of years now. Lots of 6s and 7s not enough 9s and 10s. But you only have to look at the depth defensively last year with all the injuries to see that the 6s and 7s do matter, they will enable you to ride our injury crises better than other teams. Without the 9s and 10s they won't win you a championship though. 

 

I think that we're confusing what I said that you reacted to there.  

 

Certainly it is a really important part of the job, but what I said was this;  

 

Quote

But let's also keep in mind, that good GM's aren't known as being good due to their ability to stock a roster via their Drafts of depth caliber and otherwise average or thereabouts players.  

 

You threw in the part about number of starting level players, but that's questionable at best apart from Johnson and Knox being above-average.  

 

Oliver's good, but I'd rate him a 6, 7 absolute max, and given that he was a 9th overall, that's really what we're discussing.  

 

Rousseau, big season.  If he performs as he did in his last what, 9 or 10 games or so, he's a 5, at best.  If he performs as he did in his first four last season, he's a 9 or 10.  We'll see, but I'm not a fan of projecting a player's future on a streak of four games over a body of work that's 26 games otherwise, and those 26 games overall have been unimpressive and inconsistent at best.  

 

Bernard's a 4 tops

Cook we'll see, he had limited use last season, 110 touches.  We'll know more if he gets 200+.  

Brown, what, 4?  3?  He's not average.  We'll see how he does this season, but that's pending.  

 

As to Johnson, he's good as a NCB, but if he's that good, how come he's not starting opposite White.  (rhetorical)  

 

You seem to have leapfrogged the starting spots while supporting that a GM needs to draft depth well too.  The priority is for starters, then depth.  Not visa versa.  

 

There's a lot pending, and I suspect that many of McD's apologists aren't going to be as much in his camp after this season, but that's hardly an impressive list of starters that Beane has drafted in his five drafts to day, this year's not included.  We seem to disagree there, which is fine.  

 

We'll see.  It all starts on Monday.  

 

GO BILLS!!  

 

 

[warrior9]

23 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

There are quite literally 3 "monsters" at DE in the league and they all went top 10.... 

 

They don't grow on trees there bubba.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I think that we're confusing what I said that you reacted to there.  

 

Certainly it is a really important part of the job, but what I said was this;  

 

 

You threw in the part about number of starting level players, but that's questionable at best apart from Johnson and Knox being above-average.  

 

Oliver's good, but I'd rate him a 6, 7 absolute max, and given that he was a 9th overall, that's really what we're discussing.  

 

Rousseau, big season.  If he performs as he did in his last what, 9 or 10 games or so, he's a 5, at best.  If he performs as he did in his first four last season, he's a 9 or 10.  We'll see, but I'm not a fan of projecting a player's future on a streak of four games over a body of work that's 26 games otherwise, and those 26 games overall have been unimpressive and inconsistent at best.  

 

Bernard's a 4 tops

Cook we'll see, he had limited use last season, 110 touches.  We'll know more if he gets 200+.  

Brown, what, 4?  3?  He's not average.  We'll see how he does this season, but that's pending.  

 

As to Johnson, he's good as a NCB, but if he's that good, how come he's not starting opposite White.  (rhetorical)  

 

You seem to have leapfrogged the starting spots while supporting that a GM needs to draft depth well too.  The priority is for starters, then depth.  Not visa versa.  

 

There's a lot pending, and I suspect that many of McD's apologists aren't going to be as much in his camp after this season, but that's hardly an impressive list of starters that Beane has drafted in his five drafts to day, this year's not included.  We seem to disagree there, which is fine.  

 

We'll see.  It all starts on Monday.  

 

GO BILLS!!  

 

 

 

Allen, Edmunds, Johnson, Oliver, Singletary, Knox, Davis, Bass, Jackson, Rousseau. They are all good starters drafted by Beane (with no projecting of the next generation of maybe guys). There are not many GMs with a better record of finding starters than that and that is without, obviously, the one that got away in Teller (poor decision but we are just talking about his drafting here). They aren't depth guys they are starters. Two have gone as free agents at the end of their rookie deals, yep, but again I'm looking here just at the drafting. 

 

I think every single one on that list is at least a 6 or a 7. They are NFL starters. The problem is Allen's a 10..... I'd make Taron an 8 (and he doesn't start outside because that isn't his skillset, that's the modern NFL nickel is a starting position now and he is one of the very best at it)... but everyone else is a 7 or a 6. And you have to have 4 or 5 starts that are a 9 or a 10 to win in the NFL. Diggs has been a 10 through 3 years. White was a 9/10 consistently until the injury but wasn't close last season and their roll of the dice was with Von.... let's see where he is post a second ACL. I am totally with you that they haven't drafted enough stars. But their record of finding good to very good starters and then solid depth is very good, it is among the best and it is why they score higher on all the draft grading metrics than you would imagine for a team that hasn't drafted an all-pro under Beane other than Allen (and the aforementioned one that got away....). 

18 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

There are quite literally 3 "monsters" at DE in the league and they all went top 10.... 

 

They don't grow on trees there bubba.

 

TJ Watt didn't. I know he plays OLB in a 3-4 but there is no reason he couldn't play as a 4-3 end if he was in that scheme. He has all the tools. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

In a shootout decided by a coin flip? I don't think the center on either side had anything to do with that outcome.

 

 

Are we saying Morse was responsible for that fumbled snap? I thought the common belief was that Josh simply flubbed it.

 

 

It's not just my opinion, it's the common belief of everyone that makes decisions in the NFL. When is the last time a center only was drafted in the top 10? Currently only 6 centers have an AAV of over $10 million, and the highest paid center (Jason Kelce) has an AAV of $14.25 million.

 

Just to be clear I recognize that Humphrey was inarguably a much better pick than Basham. But that misstep has had no impact on our team's success. There have been much larger and more glaring blemishes on Beane's record.

You guys are having a great discussion.  I've enjoyed reading some of it. 

 

Happy, I think you're largely correct.  The fact is, winning is a lot about teamwork, how athletes play together, and in some (certainly not all) cases it just isn't that important to have great talent at a position than it is to have good talent everywhere.   I've saying that's particularly the case at middle linebacker, for example.   I think Beane and McDermott may actually think for the team in general, teamwork is the most important thing. 

 

And I'd suggest that one reason we see Beane not having had much success at drafting true difference-makers is that he's not looking for those guys as much as we might like.  I think their philosophy is that good athletes can learn to play together in ways that give them an execution edge, and that edge is (in their opinion) more valuable than the talent edge.   That's really what McDermott is about.   He wants a team of full of wrestlers who desperately want to win and who live to be part of a team.   

 

That's why we see guys like Spencer Brown and Terrel Bernard and Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa getting drafted, guys who maybe can do a lot of different things for you, so you can teach them to be effective in multiple offenses or defenses.   (And that's why they value depth players like Bates, too.)

 

Before I start an argument, I'm not saying that's a good thing.  I subscribe to the notion that you have to find a really key contributor in the draft from time to time.  A guy like Micah Hyde (I know he wasn't drafted); what I mean it's important to add a guy like Micah to your team from time to time, a guy who isn't just good at his position, he turns out be almost essential to your success.   You gotta find a Kyle Williams or Matt MIlano in a later round, or you gotta find a transcendent player in the first round.   You have to hit on someone, on an Edmunds or a Rousseau or a Kincaid, because the player you hit on CAN make a difference.  

 

What I'm saying that is Beane and McDermott may have a different opinion.  They may value the versatility of some high-value players like Gabriel Davis or Groot over what the Bills would have had if those guys were less versatile but bigger stars.  Why would they value those guys so highly?  Because at the core of McDermott's philosophy is the cult of the team, the belief that he can build a military-like machine out of a certain kind of athlete.  He believes the machine will be more successful than a team with an extra star or two.  

 

That's the vision that the Pegulas invest in every time they extend Beane and McDermott.  

 

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

There were some. Definitely. The 2015 roster was, aside from QB the most talented I think I have seen in Buffalo on paper. Sadly not only was the QB underwhelming the coaching was horrible. 

 

But at the same time the Bills still have a top 3rd of the league roster even aside from Allen. It isn't as good as San Fran or Philly, or Cincy, or probably Dallas.... but I think it's about on a par with KC. 

 

We touched on this before.   We both seem to agree that a team loaded with players in the 6-8 caliber range (10 scale) is adequate.  

 

IMO more defenses than not have had comparable if not more talent.  I'll take a few scattered ones throughout that era.  

 

In 2004, our DL of Kelsay, Adams, Williams and Schobel was at least as good as ours.  

Posey, Fletcher and Spikes as a better LB core, consider, we don't even have three like that today, only two bona fide starters.  

Our secondary McGee, Clements, Milloy and Reese is comparable to what we have today.  

Our OL was Jennings, Tucker, Teague, Villareal, and Williams, better than what we have now easily.  

 

I took a look at NFL OL rankings from as many sources as I could find recently, going into the season, and we're generally ranked from somewhere around average 16th or so, to mid-20s.  I can't think of too many of our OLs that were that bad for as long as we've been in/around that area.  It's hardly a stretch to realize that our past OLs haven't been worse than the one we've had on Beane's watch, often better.  

 

Exchange Allen for Bledsoe and it's unfathomable that we don't win that second game against the Jets, at least, and make the playoffs.  The schedule that season was also one of the tougher ones we had in the drought years.  

 

Other defenses we've had: 

 

2014: 

DL:  Williams, Williams, Dareus, Hughes 

LB:  Brown, Spikes, Bradham 

DB:  McKelvin, Gilmore, Searcy, Williams 

 

A coupld of weaknesses there, but a better DL and Front-7 overall.  

 

Same thing there, that was an even tougher schedule and we finished 9-7, and as you and I have discussed before, with Orton at QB and you saying that we'd have made the playoffs had he started the first four games instead of Manuel. 

 

How much more with Allen at QB.  (rhetorical)  Assuming 10-6 with Orton at QB per your statements, I find it to be unfathomable that we wouldn't have won at least two more games if Allen had been our QB, and taken at least the 2nd if not the 1st seed for the playoffs.  NE with Brady was still an obstacle, but we had a better defense then and at least as good skill position players on offense as well.  

 

Either way, there's some subjectivity built into this for both of us, it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme.  Thanks for discussing.   

 

 

[Shaw66]

There's another aspect of this that no one has talked about.   By "this," I mean the original data showing that 46% of draftees are on the roster.   

 

The GM's concept of what needs to be done to construct a team also has to be considered.   Yes, there are discussions to be had about how good or not so good the draftees were, what the batting average and slugging percentage is.  

 

However, there's also questions about the proper mix of free agent and draftee additions,  Do you really want a roster of 53 guys, all of whom you've drafted?   I don't think so, because if you're having that kind of draft success, you start having cap problems as these guys' rookie contracts expire.  Especially when you factor in the experience that some guys can bring to your team at a lower price, it means that your team will be better.   And success also is affected by the constant churning of the roster, generally, and that churning has to be managed.   In view of all that, what's the optimal mix of drafted vs. free agent acquisition?   I don't know.  But I do think that Beane and McDermott are trying manage all of it to achieve a particular mix of athletes who can win.

 

Either the team that they're building toward will win a Lombardi soon, or the Pegulas may lose faith in their particular team-building philosophy. 

 

 

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Allen, Edmunds, Johnson, Oliver, Singletary, Knox, Davis, Bass, Jackson, Rousseau. They are all good starters drafted by Beane (with no projecting of the next generation of maybe guys). There are not many GMs with a better record of finding starters than that and that is without, obviously, the one that got away in Teller (poor decision but we are just talking about his drafting here). They aren't depth guys they are starters. Two have gone as free agents at the end of their rookie deals, yep, but again I'm looking here just at the drafting. 

 

I think every single one on that list is at least a 6 or a 7. They are NFL starters. The problem is Allen's a 10..... I'd make Taron an 8 (and he doesn't start outside because that isn't his skillset, that's the modern NFL nickel is a starting position now and he is one of the very best at it)... but everyone else is a 7 or a 6. And you have to have 4 or 5 starts that are a 9 or a 10 to win in the NFL. Diggs has been a 10 through 3 years. White was a 9/10 consistently until the injury but wasn't close last season and their roll of the dice was with Von.... let's see where he is post a second ACL. I am totally with you that they haven't drafted enough stars. But their record of finding good to very good starters and then solid depth is very good, it is among the best and it is why they score higher on all the draft grading metrics than you would imagine for a team that hasn't drafted an all-pro under Beane other than Allen (and the aforementioned one that got away....). 

 

Keep in mind though, I'm not referring to any free agents.  

 

Remember, my point is that if apart from Allen, you took only the players that Beane has drafted, it's less than impressive if you were handed the team and asked to take over as GM.  

 

As you list, Edmunds, Johnson, Oliver, Singletary, Knox, Davis, Bass, Jackson, Rousseau.  

 

No OL

Davis the only WR

No RBs 

 

Rousseau and Oliver on the DL  

Edmunds the only LB 

Johnson, but not as a starting CB, apparently

 

We can disagree, but IMO you're overrating Jackson as a good starter.  I'd put him at a 5 tops.  

 

Agree on Singletary and Edmunds, but many here disagree whereas I think that both are going to do well elsewhere, and we didn't retain them, which is also part of the mix.  Expensive free agents and not enough first contract players playing to the level of the free agents has disallowed us from retaining players like Edmunds.  Which is part of the overall mix.  

 

Meh, we'll see how this season plays out.  Hoping for the best.  it's going to come down to the OL play and the addition of Kincaid.  

 

I realize I'm on the optimistic side here, but I'm hoping that my good chances of a franchise record setting Offense unfolds.  As I've said before, I'm expecting both Diggs and Davis to go over 1,000 and Allen to exceed 5,000.  

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

 

 

Since we are talking numbers, 7.7% of those guys (Josh Allen) made it to the Pro Bowl...ever.

 

Go Bills!

 

Come on we gotta start this season!

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We touched on this before.   We both seem to agree that a team loaded with players in the 6-8 caliber range (10 scale) is adequate.  

 

IMO more defenses than not have had comparable if not more talent.  I'll take a few scattered ones throughout that era.  

 

In 2004, our DL of Kelsay, Adams, Williams and Schobel was at least as good as ours.  

Posey, Fletcher and Spikes as a better LB core, consider, we don't even have three like that today, only two bona fide starters.  

Our secondary McGee, Clements, Milloy and Reese is comparable to what we have today.  

Our OL was Jennings, Tucker, Teague, Villareal, and Williams, better than what we have now easily.  

 

I took a look at NFL OL rankings from as many sources as I could find recently, going into the season, and we're generally ranked from somewhere around average 16th or so, to mid-20s.  I can't think of too many of our OLs that were that bad for as long as we've been in/around that area.  It's hardly a stretch to realize that our past OLs haven't been worse than the one we've had on Beane's watch, often better.  

 

Exchange Allen for Bledsoe and it's unfathomable that we don't win that second game against the Jets, at least, and make the playoffs.  The schedule that season was also one of the tougher ones we had in the drought years.  

 

Other defenses we've had: 

 

2014: 

DL:  Williams, Williams, Dareus, Hughes 

LB:  Brown, Spikes, Bradham 

DB:  McKelvin, Gilmore, Searcy, Williams 

 

A coupld of weaknesses there, but a better DL and Front-7 overall.  

 

Same thing there, that was an even tougher schedule and we finished 9-7, and as you and I have discussed before, with Orton at QB and you saying that we'd have made the playoffs had he started the first four games instead of Manuel. 

 

How much more with Allen at QB.  (rhetorical)  Assuming 10-6 with Orton at QB per your statements, I find it to be unfathomable that we wouldn't have won at least two more games if Allen had been our QB, and taken at least the 2nd if not the 1st seed for the playoffs.  NE with Brady was still an obstacle, but we had a better defense then and at least as good skill position players on offense as well.  

 

Either way, there's some subjectivity built into this for both of us, it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme.  Thanks for discussing.   

 

 

 

I have never denied the fact we have had more talented rosters. My view on 2014 and 2015 is well known. Both those teams were contenders with Josh Allen at Quarterback and probably one or two of the 00s teams too.

 

Where we disagreed on that was my view that of you swapped nothing about thoee teams other than coaching.... I think McDermott would have coached the Bills to 3 or 4 playoff appearances during the drought. Even with what we had at QB. 

 

He wouldn't have made them contenders... cos QB matters more than HC. Allen would have made at least the 14 and 15 teams contenders. 

 

The point with the 2014 and particularly the 2015 team though is we had invested heavily in a way Josh's contract makes difficult. The '15 team in particular was an expensive team everywhere else and dirt cheap at Quarterback.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:37 PM, FrenchConnection said:

Homer! Get your head out of the sand. Do you remember Wyatt Teller? Or the Jacksonville game? /s

 

But seriously. Everyone loves the Bengals drafting now, but remember they took John Ross and Billy Price, who are both out of football, in the first round in back-to-back years (2017 and 2018). And Ross was picked right before Mahomes!

 

 

The Steelers (Kevin Colbert) from 2000-2021 was the most consistent team I've seen hitting on their first round picks.

2000 - Burress

2001 - Casey Hampton

2002 - Kendall Simmons

2003 - Troy Polamalu

2004 - Ben Roethlisberger

2005 - Heath Miller

2006 - Santonio Holmes

2007 - Lawrence Timmons

2008 - Rashard Mendenhall

2009 - Evander Hood

2010 - Maurkice Pouncey

2011 - Cameron Heyward

2012 - David DeCastro

2013 - Jarvis Jones

2014 - Ryan Shazier

2015 - Bud Dupree

2016 - Artie Burns 

2017 - TJ Watt

2018 - Terrell Edmunds

2019 - Devin Bush

2020 - Chase Claypool (2nd)

2021 - Najee Harris

 

So just nailing your first round picks is a good path to show your drafting abilities. 

 

The Seahawks from 2011-2014 were the best drafting team in the league when John Schneider got there. Then they wandered the wilderness for years after the Max Unger for Jimmy Graham trade. But they got it back last year and I think this year will be good as well. 

 

Part of it is good teams pick lower. 

[Cray51]

Im trying to find a team that compared to the Bills in draft position year over year.  1-2 top 15 picks and the rest being later part of the first round.  I think understanding comparable GMs in comparable situations gives us insight to the realities of NFL drafting.

 

I think the closest I can find are the Green Bay Packers

 

Drafted 18th, 12th, 26th and 29th from 2018-2021.

 

From those drafts, they selected:

2 pro bowlers (Jaire Alexander and Elgton Jenkins)

7-8 Team Starters

Another 8 Bottom of the roster guys

 

In total, out of 37 selections, 15 are NFL roster talents.  That's a 40% hit rate.  And of the 37, I'd say 6 are GOOD starters, as in they would start for most if not all 32 NFL teams.

 

For the Bills, they have:

4 pro bowlers

10-11 Team Starters

Another 11 Bottom of the roster guys

 

Out of 31 picks, 22 are NFL roster worthy - that's 71%

 

Of course, Green Bay and the Bills are in different categories of team CURRENTLY.  But their draft selection spots have been relatively close year over year.  I'd say the Bills have had much better results compared to a team who has been in a similar position.

 

Take the Ravens:

Picked 25th, 32nd, 25th, 28th, 27th from 2018-2021 (two picks in 2018).

 

They selected:

4 Pro Bowlers

10-11 Team Starters

Another 12 Bottom of the roster guys

 

Out of 39 picks, 23 are NFL roster worthy - that's 59%.

 

Again, are we saying the Bills are the BEST drafting team around?  No.  But are they good at finding NFL talent and maintaining cost control across their depth with good selections?  I'd say yes.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, warrior9 said:

There are quite literally 3 "monsters" at DE in the league and they all went top 10.... 

 

They don't grow on trees there bubba.

 

59 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

TJ Watt didn't. I know he plays OLB in a 3-4 but there is no reason he couldn't play as a 4-3 end if he was in that scheme. He has all the tools. 

 

TJ Watt, Hassan Reddick was a 2nd, Matthew Judon was a 5th, Maxx Crosby was a 4th, Alex Highsmith was a 3rd, Brian Burns was pick 16,  Micah Parsons was pick 12

 

Outside of the Bosa's that's pretty much the entire top 10 sack leaders list. I would consider them all "monsters", certainly home run draft picks. None in the top 10 of the draft.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

Im trying to find a team that compared to the Bills in draft position year over year.  1-2 top 15 picks and the rest being later part of the first round.  I think understanding comparable GMs in comparable situations gives us insight to the realities of NFL drafting.

 

I think the closest I can find are the Green Bay Packers

 

Drafted 18th, 12th, 26th and 29th from 2018-2021.

 

From those drafts, they selected:

2 pro bowlers (Jaire Alexander and Elgton Jenkins)

7-8 Team Starters

Another 8 Bottom of the roster guys

 

In total, out of 37 selections, 15 are NFL roster talents.  That's a 40% hit rate.  And of the 37, I'd say 6 are GOOD starters, as in they would start for most if not all 32 NFL teams.

 

For the Bills, they have:

4 pro bowlers

10-11 Team Starters

Another 11 Bottom of the roster guys

 

Out of 31 picks, 22 are NFL roster worthy - that's 71%

 

Of course, Green Bay and the Bills are in different categories of team CURRENTLY.  But their draft selection spots have been relatively close year over year.  I'd say the Bills have had much better results compared to a team who has been in a similar position.

 

Take the Ravens:

Picked 25th, 32nd, 25th, 28th, 27th from 2018-2021 (two picks in 2018).

 

They selected:

4 Pro Bowlers

10-11 Team Starters

Another 12 Bottom of the roster guys

 

Out of 39 picks, 23 are NFL roster worthy - that's 59%.

 

Again, are we saying the Bills are the BEST drafting team around?  No.  But are they good at finding NFL talent and maintaining cost control across their depth with good selections?  I'd say yes.

 

This is exactly right. The Bills are not the best around but their record is far from terrible. It's steady. They need to find a couple of stars. Hopefully they can.

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

TJ Watt, Hassan Reddick was a 2nd, Matthew Judon was a 5th, Maxx Crosby was a 4th, Alex Highsmith was a 3rd, Brian Burns was pick 16,  Micah Parsons was pick 12

 

Outside of the Bosa's that's pretty much the entire top 10 sack leaders list. I would consider them all "monsters", certainly home run draft picks. None in the top 10 of the draft.

 

 

I don't think Reddick, Highsmith or Judon are monsters. Good players, for sure. Not monsters. Crosby is right on the brink if monster status but Burns and Parsons are absolutely among the best edge rushers in football and you are right, drafted outside the top 10.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is exactly right. The Bills are not the best around but their record is far from terrible. It's steady. They need to find a couple of stars. Hopefully they can.

 

I don't think Reddick, Highsmith or Judon are monsters. Good players, for sure. Not monsters. Crosby is right on the brink if monster status but Burns and Parsons are absolutely among the best edge rushers in football and you are right, drafted outside the top 10.

 

I'll give you Highsmith and Judon for the sake of argument. But I do think Reddick is a monster. I was hoping we'd be able to get him in FA last year, even over Von.

[Chaos]

I do not know why people care where the players come from, draft , free agency or trade. Beane is responsible for drafting Josh Allen. Allen is somewhere around 50% of what it takes to win a Superbowl.   Allen is also about 90% of what it takes to make the playoffs.  So far Beane has not been able to fill in the other 50% to win the Super Bowl.    Beane has had the Bills have way there for four years now.  I hope he figures out the other half before the first half of equation, Allen, retires. 

[Billl]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

It has, but only at guard. Creed Humphrey has exclusively been a center since his college days. So no I don't think him being here over Basham makes any kind of difference. Similarly I think the Chiefs would have been just as good the past couple years with just a decent center but I know that opinion is not shared by everyone.

You're forgetting to factor the opportunity cost, though.  If Creed replaced Morse, you'd have $10 million of additional call space each of the next two seasons.  That could pay for a pretty solid Guard.

[vincec]

10 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

On the Wall of Fame? No. Ergo, no.

Wasn't the original quote looking for a DE who "turned into a monster"? It didn't mention WOF. I would say that neither Hanson nor Schobel were "monsters", but they are equivalent to each other, IMO. The only reason Schobel isn't on the wall is because those Bills teams he played on were mediocre. He's at least as qualified as Phil Hansen.

Edited September 7, 2023 by vincec

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Where we disagreed on that was my view that of you swapped nothing about thoee teams other than coaching.... I think McDermott would have coached the Bills to 3 or 4 playoff appearances during the drought. Even with what we had at QB. 

 

Yes, that's correct.  IMO had Marrone been coaching this team he'd have done the same, perhaps more in the playoffs, than McD.  

 

What you're implying then though, whether you realize it or not, is that the QB wouldn't have mattered in "getting to the playoffs."  

 

Here's the issue you yourself said that had Manuel not started the season for four games, Marrone would have gone to the playoffs.  

 

My position is two-fold;  

 

A.  Put Allen on that team and Marrone does at least what McD's done here, and is more successful in the playoffs.  

 

B.  Put Marrone as the coach of our current team during McD's tenure, and he also doesn't do any worse than McD's done.  

 

We'll never know, so it's not worth debating I suppose.  Again, IMO we're going to find a lot out this season about McD and his staff.  My expectation is that by season's end, he's going to have a substantially smaller number of people in his corner.   

 

As long as Dorsey has the offense in order, I don't think it's going to matter.