The Bills need worse recievers

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

After Kelce retires there will be other guys that Mahomes (along with Reid’s offense) will elevate. Other team fans will say if Mahomes doesn’t have so and so he won’t be as productive. All the while missing the point that Mahomes is the reason his receivers are productive. 

 

Kelce had two 1,000 yard seasons before Mahomes. Tyreek Hill and Marquez Valdes-Scantling had the best yardage seasons of their career with a different QB throwing them the ball. It's a myth that great QBs can turn WRs into somebody they aren't. Of course a great QB will elevate their weapons' production simply because the QB's added production has to show up somewhere, but WRs are who they are regardless of who's throwing them the ball. For example Gabe Davis is a limited WR that only runs one type of route at a high level and has a bizarre catch technique that leads to more drops than average. He will always be that receiver whether Allen is throwing him the ball or Mahomes or Nate Peterman. And if you do a modicum of research you'll see that Allen has elevated all of his targets throughout his career too.

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

There's some misperception here that in order to succeed a QB seems to need two of the five top WRs in the league or the like.  

 

No, just that Super Bowl caliber teams need a better #2 receiving target than Gabe Davis. That has been the case for all 12 teams that participated in each of the last 6 Super Bowls, at least. I don't need Chase and Higgins. I think Diggs and Beasley in their prime is likely the minimum standard for what a Super Bowl contender needs, and it's no coincidence that the one time we reached the AFCCG in the Allen era we had that minimum standard met. Davis is below that standard.

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

No, just that Super Bowl caliber teams need a better #2 receiving target than Gabe Davis. That has been the case for all 12 teams that participated in each of the last 6 Super Bowls, at least. I don't need Chase and Higgins. I think Diggs and Beasley in their prime is likely the minimum standard for what a Super Bowl contender needs, and it's no coincidence that the one time we reached the AFCCG in the Allen era we had that minimum standard met. Davis is below that standard.

 

OK, let's start here.  What has Diggs done in our last five playoff games that Davis has not done? 

 

Secondly, what's your explanation of our 2021 season KC playoff game?  

 

Thirdly, back to my point, taking simply Brady's second and third Super Bowl seasons, Brady had as his second WRs in those seasons, first in one of them, Patten and Givins.  Are you suggesting that either one of those was better than Davis?  Before you answer that you may want to take a look at their career stats, catch%, etc.  

 

What you said is simply mimicking the narrative.  There's little behind it.  

 

Remember, our problem is in the playoffs, not in the regular season racking up stats.  

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by PBF81

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

OK, let's start here.  What has Diggs done in our last five playoff games that Davis has not done? 

 

Diggs gets punished in the playoffs because defenses know if they stop him no one else behind him will pick up the slack. That was a problem for the entire second half of this past season too. Analytics shows that the #2 target is almost just as important as the #1 target in the modern NFL when it comes to reaching and winning the Super Bowl. The reason is because of what I just decribed... defenses are better and smarter in the playoffs so it's harder to funnel the whole offense through one guy.

 

27 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Secondly, what's your explanation of our 2021 season KC playoff game?  

 

My explanation is that Mike Hughes had one of the worst individual performances I've ever seen from a player in a playoff game. That and Tyrann Mathieu was out of the game for the entire second half. Davis was the beneficiary of these factors, plus of course Allen played out of his mind. But if we want Davis consistently facing #3 and lower quality DBs on the depth chart in playoff games we can't hope for injury. We have to put players above him on OUR depth chart so that he automatically gets more favorable matchups. Like he did in 2020 which for my money is still the best season of his career when you account for target share (best yards per target, best TDs per target, and best catch percentage of his career).

 

27 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

taking simply Brady's second and third Super Bowl seasons

 

I mean this is ancient history. It's meaningless to even bring up. Recent NFL history shows that Davis is not worthy of being the #2 target for a Super Bowl participant. I already put this in another thread, but this is a list of the #2 receiving targets of the most recent 6 Super Bowl participants, the winners and the losers:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

OBJ

Tee Higgins

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

As I said the last time I posted this, JuJu is likely the weakest link on that entire list and even he has a 1,400 yard season on his resume. This is the standard of the modern NFL era. Davis doesn't belong on that list. And unless something changes before December we will have to hope that the rest of our team is good enough to break a six-season trend.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by HappyDays

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kelce had two 1,000 yard seasons before Mahomes. Tyreek Hill and Marquez Valdes-Scantling had the best yardage seasons of their career with a different QB throwing them the ball. It's a myth that great QBs can turn WRs into somebody they aren't. Of course a great QB will elevate their weapons' production simply because the QB's added production has to show up somewhere, but WRs are who they are regardless of who's throwing them the ball. For example Gabe Davis is a limited WR that only runs one type of route at a high level and has a bizarre catch technique that leads to more drops than average. He will always be that receiver whether Allen is throwing him the ball or Mahomes or Nate Peterman. And if you do a modicum of research you'll see that Allen has elevated all of his targets throughout his career too.

Do you have any examples of this or is this myth your opinion? Of course any great receivers will be great (meaning getting open) regardless of who’s throwing the ball. But the better the qb the more balls those receivers will get. It’s useless to get open but the qb can’t get you the ball. Look at Hill during the Smith years with KC.

 

Diggs and Davis is a dynamic combo. It’s up to Allen (and Dorsey) to unlock that. There has been flashes but nothing consistent. Hoping for more consistency this coming season. 

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Diggs gets punished in the playoffs because defenses know if they stop him no one else behind him will pick up the slack. That was a problem for the entire second half of this past season too. Analytics shows that the #2 target is almost just as important as the #1 target in the modern NFL when it comes to reaching and winning the Super Bowl. The reason is because of what I just decribed... defenses are better and smarter in the playoffs so it's harder to funnel the whole offense through one guy.

 

 

My explanation is that Mike Hughes had one of the worst individual performances I've ever seen from a player in the a playoff game. That and Tyrann Mathieu was out of the game for the entire second half. Davis was the beneficiary of these factors, plus of course Allen played out of his mind. But if we want Davis consistently facing #3 and lower quality DBs on the depth chart in playoff games we can't hope for injury. We have to put players above him on OUR depth chart so that he automatically gets more favorable matchups. Like he did in 2020 which for my money is still the best season of his career when you account for target share (best yards per target, best TDs per target, and best catch percentage of his career).

 

 

I mean this is ancient history. It's meaningless to even bring up. Recent NFL history shows that Davis is not worthy of being the #2 target for a Super Bowl participant. I already put this in another thread, but this is a list of the #2 receiving targets of the most recent 6 Super Bowl participants, the winners and the losers:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

OBJ

Tee Higgins

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

As I said the last time I posted this, JuJu is likely the weakest link on that entire list and even he has a 1,400 yard season on his resume. This is the standard of the modern NFL era. Davis doesn't belong on that list. And unless something changes before December we will have to hope that the rest of our team is good enough to break a six-season trend.

 

I can see a little merit in what you say, but that last part I'm not seeing.  Let's look at the 2018 season, Brady still posted top numbers with Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Chris Hogan as his top-3 WRs, he won the Super Bowl.  Which validates that point alone.  Rodgers is another great example, he's hardly had great talent and generally not much more than Brady had, but he's posted very good passing numbers.  

 

As to the rest, I would agree entirely if the opponents that we played all had top passing defenses, but they didn't.  Last season Cincy had the 16th ranked passing D and Miami the 27th, which allowed both Diggs and Davis to post good games vs. Miami.  It's not as if Cincy's passing D was "unsolveable," right?  That's what good coaches do.  

 

In 2021 NE had the 2nd ranked passing D and KC the 27th ranked passing D, and against KC, one of the worst passing Ds in the league, Diggs had 3 catches for 7 yards.  Chase, Burrow's #1 had 6 for 54 and a TD against the same team in the playoffs.  In KC's game vs. Pittsburgh in the same playoffs, the washed up Roethlisburger's #1 also had a better game with 5 for 34 and a TD with Roeth spreading the ball out efficiently, which also feeds into the greater point.  

 

Again thought, fairly, there is some validity to your point in general.  

 

Let's also not lose sight of the original argument, the better QBs do more with what they do have.  It also hasn't escaped notice that every single offseason we talk about how our WRs suck as if we can only be good enough if we have several of the top-10 WRs or something.  It makes me wonder that if a QB really needs all the best WRs then how can he be that good.  

 

I digress on Brady and the "ancient history" argument to an extent as well.  It's not as sexy to have a bunch of average WRs, but the emphasis in the league these days is passing, but that doesn't mean that a team cannot succeed without a "top-5" WR.  

 

To me, my argument from the onset is the lack of properly optimizing our WRs.  I wasn't happy that they released Beasley, who was Allen's outlet during his best season easily, but most disturbing re: that was that they made no backup plan, at least not a good one, to take his place.  I understand the negative sentiments, which wouldn't have made me get rid of him or renegotiated his contract, but if you do that you should at least have a plan in replacement, we did not, at least not a good one.  

 

Then there's Hines, who was the Colts 3rd leading receiver in his rookie season in 2018, their 2nd leading receiver in 2019 & 2021, and leading receiver in 2020, and here he had 9 targets in as many games, catching 5 of them, whereas in Indy he averaged 68 targets and 52 catches/season.  You're never going anywhere if that's how your talent is managed.  

 

 

[Nextmanup]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

* RECEIVERS * 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, let's start here.  What has Diggs done in our last five playoff games that Davis has not done? 

 

Secondly, what's your explanation of our 2021 season KC playoff game?  

 

Thirdly, back to my point, taking simply Brady's second and third Super Bowl seasons, Brady had as his second WRs in those seasons, first in one of them, Patten and Givins.  Are you suggesting that either one of those was better than Davis?  Before you answer that you may want to take a look at their career stats, catch%, etc.  

 

What you said is simply mimicking the narrative.  There's little behind it.  

 

Remember, our problem is in the playoffs, not in the regular season racking up stats.  

 

 

 

@HappyDays has thoroughly answered your question marked sentences.

 

But to your last point........

 

The problem has shown up in the playoffs.........but not only there.

 

It's easy for some to forget that the 21' team failed to earn home field advantage over KC(despite beating them in KC in the regular season) in great part because Beasley fell off greatly and they had also lost the explosiveness they'd had in John Brown during the first half of their 2020 season..........which was the high point for their receiving corps and a place in time where some Bills fans still think they are for some reason.   

 

They've had some horrible, inexcusable, damaging regular season losses......Jacksonville in 21' and NYJ in 22' in particular......... where they needed someone other than Diggs to step up and make plays in the passing game........clever defensive gameplans that allowed the far inferior teams defenses to dictate terms to the Bills offense.  

 

And in both games they also called on Gabe to catch an important pass late........and he instead spilled those catchable balls on the turf.  

 

Gabe has NOT been good enough.

 

The only argument against that is if someone thinks Gabe is going to be much better.   I don't know how anyone can have watched him play week-in and week-out and expect that.    It's not realistic.

[Success]

I don't have an issue w/ the premise.

 

Having top wideouts is enticing as a fan.  But I look at those Pats teams - the only time they really invested in WR was Moss, and that actually ended up not working out.

 

It's about the lines and protecting Allen. Give Allen time, and he can get the ball to anyone.

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

@HappyDays has thoroughly answered your question marked sentences.

 

But to your last point........

 

The problem has shown up in the playoffs.........but not only there.

 

It's easy for some to forget that the 21' team failed to earn home field advantage over KC(despite beating them in KC in the regular season) in great part because Beasley fell off greatly and they had also lost the explosiveness they'd had in John Brown during the first half of their 2020 season..........which was the high point for their receiving corps and a place in time where some Bills fans still think they are for some reason.   

 

They've had some horrible, inexcusable, damaging regular season losses......Jacksonville in 21' and NYJ in 22' in particular......... where they needed someone other than Diggs to step up and make plays in the passing game........clever defensive gameplans that allowed the far inferior teams defenses to dictate terms to the Bills offense.  

 

And in both games they also called on Gabe to catch an important pass late........and he instead spilled those catchable balls on the turf.  

 

Gabe has NOT been good enough.

 

The only argument against that is if someone thinks Gabe is going to be much better.   I don't know how anyone can have watched him play week-in and week-out and expect that.    It's not realistic.

 

Gabe has been fine in the playoffs.   Who cares about the regular season, that hasn't been a problem for us.  Why is that so difficult for people to grasp.  We can say "we've won the regular season" in essence.  17-0, 10-7, as long as a team makes the playoffs, it's what the team does therein that matters.  Every player on the team will tell you that.  

 

As to the playoffs, once again, we had the AFC Championship in '21 won!  ... and likely the Super Bowl as well.  The reason why we lost it wasn't because of talent; it wasn't because of Davis, to the contrary in fact regarding Davis;  it wasn't because of Allen, it was 100% because of McD, who, once again, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, something that is difficult envisioning any other of the 31 coaches in the league doing.  The offense played lights out ball.  The D not so much, more impugning of McD, our marvy D-minded coach.  

 

What, it's a real reach to think that a new coach wouldn't do things that are that galactically stupid?  

 

I'm not sure how else to put it.  It was idiocy and/or incompetence at its finest.  We have a perpetual place now in the annuls of NFL playoff dunderheadedness as  direct result.  But we're expected to believe that someone that did that and other dunderheaded things in the playoffs will one day pull his head out of his a$$ far enough to be able to breath and see straight for 4 entire playoff games against the best teams in the league when we can't even get our O and D to both bring their A-games to any given game with even the remotest of regularity?  
 

IDK, that's simply seems like misplaced faith and hope if you ask me.  

 

Again, this season will spell out much.  We essentially have the Panthers' coaching staff from 2011-2016 guiding our team this season.  So should we expect more than they delivered during those six seasons in Carolina, which is about what we've gotten here to date?  

 

Other than this faith in completely nebulous things, I'm not sure what there is concrete to offer the hope that everyone has.  That's what many of us see.  Of course we hope that we're wrong, but there's nothing indicative that that's the case.  

 

Go Bills!!! 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Gabe has been fine in the playoffs.   Who cares about the regular season, that hasn't been a problem for us.  Why is that so difficult for people to grasp.  We can say "we've won the regular season" in essence.  17-0, 10-7, as long as a team makes the playoffs, it's what the team does therein that matters.  Every player on the team will tell you that.  

 

As to the playoffs, once again, we had the AFC Championship in '21 won!  ... and likely the Super Bowl as well.  The reason why we lost it wasn't because of talent; it wasn't because of Davis, to the contrary in fact regarding Davis;  it wasn't because of Allen, it was 100% because of McD, who, once again, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, something that is difficult envisioning any other of the 31 coaches in the league doing.  The offense played lights out ball.  The D not so much, more impugning of McD, our marvy D-minded coach.  

 

What, it's a real reach to think that a new coach wouldn't do things that are that galactically stupid?  

 

I'm not sure how else to put it.  It was idiocy and/or incompetence at its finest.  We have a perpetual place now in the annuls of NFL playoff dunderheadedness as  direct result.  But we're expected to believe that someone that did that and other dunderheaded things in the playoffs will one day pull his head out of his a$$ far enough to be able to breath and see straight for 4 entire playoff games against the best teams in the league when we can't even get our O and D to both bring their A-games to any given game with even the remotest of regularity?  
 

IDK, that's simply seems like misplaced faith and hope if you ask me.  

 

Again, this season will spell out much.  We essentially have the Panthers' coaching staff from 2011-2016 guiding our team this season.  So should we expect more than they delivered during those six seasons in Carolina, which is about what we've gotten here to date?  

 

Other than this faith in completely nebulous things, I'm not sure what there is concrete to offer the hope that everyone has.  That's what many of us see.  Of course we hope that we're wrong, but there's nothing indicative that that's the case.  

 

Go Bills!!! 

 

 

 

 

Not having home field and a first round bye in any of these seasons has been very detrimental.   

 

Just because they lost at home in 2022........after a brutal year with, once again, no meaningless game and bye week to re-charge at the end..........doesn't mean that the regular seasons just don't matter.

 

In fact, if they had finished with the #1 seed last season they'd have had a bye week......not sustained injuries and been rested........and likely would have been playing the grass-green Jaguars in the divisional round instead of the bad matchup against Cinci.

 

We see teams play far below their standard at points in the playoffs and escape and then get their act together and win the SB.    Tampa in 2020 narrowly beating Washington in the wild card round and KC in the championship game versus Cinci this past season.  

 

Never having that #1 seed and that first round bye matter.    In 6 of their 9 losses the past two seasons they've failed to reach 20 points and a common theme has been the lack of playmakers around Allen on offense.

 

Trying to say it's not an issue because Gabe has had 3 very good playoff games out of the 7 he's played is by no means definitive proof that the Bills don't have a problem receiver 2.   It's just box score scouting.  

 

  

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[ngbills]

Kelce. 

[Rigotz]

On 6/24/2023 at 2:16 PM, Zerovoltz said:

 

If you look at those seasons, Rodgers threw to Adams 169 times in 2020 and 149 times in 2021.  the next most targeted guys.  In those same 2 seasons, Tyreek Hill was targeted 135 and 159 times.  

 

When Mahomes lost Hill, he efficiently was able to distribute those lost targets to other players.  He actually had a career high comp% last season, without Hill.  as well as higher Y/A and YPG.  His QBR was up from 62 to 77, his QB Rating was up from 98.5 to 105.  NONE of Mahomes metrics got worse....they all got better after losing Tyreek Hill, who he threw to more than anyone on the team.  He threw for over 500 MORE yards, 4 MORE TD's  One fewer INT....

 

When Rodgers lost his leading WR (Adams)  ....all his metric got worse....

 

And so you might say that doesn't account for Kelce being gone....Rodger didn't have a Kelce.  We won't know for sure what Mahomes will do once Kelce declines/retires....but based on losing a top 5 WR and all those targets....Mahomes didn't have any trouble adjusting and distributing.  I'm confident that Mahomes will continue to play at a very high level.  I believe Allen is that same kind of player at this point.  If Diggs got hurt, holds out etc....Allen is going to deliver big plays, and get the ball into the right place at the right time most of the time.  

 

Excellent, so if Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid turn out to be the greatest Tight End of all time, yes maybe we'll consider dropping our star WR.

 

Until then, the Rodgers scenario proved that you kinda need at least one elite pass catcher on offense to succeed. The arrogance in saying Mahomes was just fine without Hill and pass catchers are overrated ....when he had the greatest Tight End of all time... is pretty wild.

[Zerovoltz]

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

Yeah, well, your qb sounds like Kermit the frog.

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

What does this have to do with the Bills needing new receivers?  
 

Why don’t you post this on a Chiefs forum?  People might actually give a ****
 

Mahomes is amazing-  we know this. Congrats.  Maybe the entire message board should give him a standing ovation for being so great.  Maybe we should have a sub forum discussing the greatness of Pat Mahomes.  
 

no one here cares Z

[Zerovoltz]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

What does this have to do with the Bills needing new receivers?  
 

Why don’t you post this on a Chiefs forum?  People might actually give a ****
 

Mahomes is amazing-  we know this. Congrats.  Maybe the entire message board should give him a standing ovation for being so great.  Maybe we should have a sub forum discussing the greatness of Pat Mahomes.  
 

no one here cares Z

 

My point isn't an argument for Mahomes.....it's an argument that Allen has reached a point at which you don't need to suffer a high priced diva WR to have a high powered, productive offense.  I post this about Mahomes, not to boast, but to illustrate that KC has reached a point in Mahomes development where he also doesn't need elite divas and is free to deliver a ball where it should go, and not worry about making sure WR X gets his stats.  Some argue here that Mahomes has Kelce and so the arguement doens't apply....I just threw this up to point out that while Kelce is awesome, Mahomes picks and chooses where to put that ball without considering that Kelce or anyone else gets numbers.  

 

The entire point of this post from start to finish is that Allen and the Bills would be better off at this point, without the drama of a Diggs...and that Allen is able to lead a high powered offense with lower priced, "good" WR.....I use the term low self esteem jokingly, but guys who are good players not elite, not expensive and not thin skinned complainers.  

 

There was a time when it was a plus to add Diggs.  I believe he really did help the team and Allen develop...and if the drama and price tag weren't so high...Diggs would still be a great piece.  At this point...when you have a QB the caliber of Allen.  Diggs isn't worth the cost in money and he isn't worth having in your locker room.

 

 

[LabattBlue]

0.0v…Mahomes is better than Allen and I don’t come out and say it, but read between the lines.  Blah, blah, blah…

[3rdand12]

On 6/24/2023 at 5:58 PM, Success said:

I don't have an issue w/ the premise.

 

Having top wideouts is enticing as a fan.  But I look at those Pats teams - the only time they really invested in WR was Moss, and that actually ended up not working out.

 

It's about the lines and protecting Allen. Give Allen time, and he can get the ball to anyone.

 

We need competent and consistent WRs  TEs and RBs to catch the ball

and the play calling that allows the opportunities

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

My point isn't an argument for Mahomes.....it's an argument that Allen has reached a point at which you don't need to suffer a high priced diva WR to have a high powered, productive offense.  I post this about Mahomes, not to boast, but to illustrate that KC has reached a point in Mahomes development where he also doesn't need elite divas and is free to deliver a ball where it should go, and not worry about making sure WR X gets his stats.  Some argue here that Mahomes has Kelce and so the arguement doens't apply....I just threw this up to point out that while Kelce is awesome, Mahomes picks and chooses where to put that ball without considering that Kelce or anyone else gets numbers.  

 

The entire point of this post from start to finish is that Allen and the Bills would be better off at this point, without the drama of a Diggs...and that Allen is able to lead a high powered offense with lower priced, "good" WR.....I use the term low self esteem jokingly, but guys who are good players not elite, not expensive and not thin skinned complainers.  

 

There was a time when it was a plus to add Diggs.  I believe he really did help the team and Allen develop...and if the drama and price tag weren't so high...Diggs would still be a great piece.  At this point...when you have a QB the caliber of Allen.  Diggs isn't worth the cost in money and he isn't worth having in your locker room.

 

 

Understood- apologies for the rant.  
 

i feel that you should have included this description in your original post

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

 

The seemingly random distribution of QBs on this list tells me it is a meaningless stat that you dug out because you think it proves a point.

 

If you change it to 3rd and 4-7 yards to go, the results are very different:

 

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-and-4-to-7/2022?sort=passrate

 

Allen's passer rating of 148.6 in that situation is much higher than Mahomes' 102.5. Ditto for Allen's first down conversion percentage of 68.75% compared to Mahomes' 56.60% in that situation.

 

Here's a weird one - on 3rd and 11+ Allen and Mahomes both have exactly a 35% first down conversion rate, a 0% interception rate, and a 0% TD rate, but Mahomes has a much higher passer rating of 108.3 to Allen's 73.5.

 

Where Mahomes really makes up ground is on 3rd and 8-10 yards. There he converts 48.15% for a 1st down, whereas Allen only converts 28.13%.

 

By the way I don't think any of these metrics I posted proves anything. My point is that if you change the sample size for the data you get wildly different results each of which could be used to prove some hypothetical point if you stretch the data to fit that point.

 

And the stat you posted also has nothing to do with what you're trying to argue. If we got rid of Diggs, Allen would have zero elite targets and Mahomes would still have one. Nothing you can possibly say will change that fact.

[starrymessenger]

To me its really just a cost benefit analysis. At what point does what an elite receiver brings to the table become secondary to the disturbance he may be to the locker room and to the concerted team effort needed to win a championship. Otherwise any QB is better off with more rather than less accomplished receivers, and many elite receivers are not known to be troublemakers. Mahomes has proven that his performance was in no way dependent upon Hill. But the Chiefs invested in his O-line, he has Andy Reid and had EB, and his receiving corps and support from the run game was better overall than what Allen has had. Allen needs to be surrounded by better talent not lesser talent. He already shoulders too much of the load.

[HappyDays]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Where Mahomes really makes up ground is on 3rd and 8-10 yards. There he converts 48.15% for a 1st down, whereas Allen only converts 28.13%.

 

Just to add something to this, in this down and distance Allen took a sack on an alarming 25% of attempts. Mahomes only took a sack on 7.41% of his attempts. Without looking at each attempt I can't say how much of that discrepancy is because of the OL versus how much is because of QB processing. But it shows one possible reason why 3rd down conversion rate without context may not tell us anything meaningful.

 

It's also worth noting that the sample size we're working off of here is very very low. On the 3rd and 8-10 splits where Mahomes builds most of his overall lead in 3rd and 5+ conversion percentage, Mahomes and Allen have just 27 and 32 attempts respectively.

 

Edited July 2, 2023 by HappyDays

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm perplexed how you draw the conclusion that the Chiefs don't think they need star receivers when they have an All Pro in Kelce.......3 first or second round picks at WR from the past 3 drafts that they've acquired in the past 15 months........and a $10M aav WR3?

 

I mean.........do the Bills need a "diva" receiver who assaults women and children or women pregnant with his children....like Tyreek Hill?   No, that's a hard pass in the WNY market and I think that when the Chiefs finally felt they could no longer keep him satisfied playing at a deviants discount.......they made that decision too.   

 

You are over-thinking this, IMO.

 

[Zerovoltz]

1.  My intent isn't to make this thread a Mahomes thread.

 

2. I would bet money that if Diggs isn't on this roster in 2023, the Bills offense keeps on truckin'.  

 

3.  If you want to argue about the O line.....I will listen to that argument.  

 

4.  I am sticking to my point.  Allen is an elite NFL QB and does not need an elite WR 1.  I would argue he and the Bills would be better off with a deep group of good WR.

 

5.  Joe Burrow has a bad line and elite WR's 3 deep.  They were 12th in yards per play.  KC was 1 and Bills were 2.  

 

6.  The Bills were 6th in NY/A  KC was 1.  Cincy was 8.  The Bills had nearly the same amount of passing yards on 36 fewer attempts.

 

The guy who needs the elite WR's is Burrow, not Allen.  

[MPT]

22 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

1.  My intent isn't to make this thread a Mahomes thread.

 

2. I would bet money that if Diggs isn't on this roster in 2023, the Bills offense keeps on truckin'.  

 

3.  If you want to argue about the O line.....I will listen to that argument.  

 

4.  I am sticking to my point.  Allen is an elite NFL QB and does not need an elite WR 1.  I would argue he and the Bills would be better off with a deep group of good WR.

 

5.  Joe Burrow has a bad line and elite WR's 3 deep.  They were 12th in yards per play.  KC was 1 and Bills were 2.  

 

6.  The Bills were 6th in NY/A  KC was 1.  Cincy was 8.  The Bills had nearly the same amount of passing yards on 36 fewer attempts.

 

The guy who needs the elite WR's is Burrow, not Allen.  

 

The problem with your argument is that the Chiefs still have an elite WR1 equivalent. His name is Travis Kelce. They had two elite #1 pass catchers when Hill was there. Mahomes didn't miss a beat when Hill left, but we'll see what happens when Kelce starts slowing down. That's going to be a much different situation. 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 7/2/2023 at 8:18 PM, Zerovoltz said:

1.  My intent isn't to make this thread a Mahomes thread.

 

2. I would bet money that if Diggs isn't on this roster in 2023, the Bills offense keeps on truckin'.  

 

3.  If you want to argue about the O line.....I will listen to that argument.  

 

4.  I am sticking to my point.  Allen is an elite NFL QB and does not need an elite WR 1.  I would argue he and the Bills would be better off with a deep group of good WR.

 

5.  Joe Burrow has a bad line and elite WR's 3 deep.  They were 12th in yards per play.  KC was 1 and Bills were 2.  

 

6.  The Bills were 6th in NY/A  KC was 1.  Cincy was 8.  The Bills had nearly the same amount of passing yards on 36 fewer attempts.

 

The guy who needs the elite WR's is Burrow, not Allen.  

 

 

 

4.  Who are the Bills "deep group of good WR"?    It's Diggs.......a huge gap..........and THEN a MVS-like WR3 in Gabe Davis(who is a pending UFA)......the another drop-off to a couple 5th rounders and a couple journeymen with 190 yards per season averages.    You are subtracting Diggs from the equation but not adding ANY of the 4 or 5 "good" receivers.    Maybe Kincaid turns into a WR,  but even then, without Diggs, on paper it's Kincaid and the pips without significant investment into the position in the 2024 offseason.

 

Again........you are drawing a broad conclusion based on one single result that you think was the Chiefs filling WR roles with a bunch of rando's(when they in fact, did not)........and then the Chiefs being the first team to win a SB without two very high quality WR's since the 2018 Patriots.

 

My advice is to eliminate any Patriot result when you are looking at SB success.   There are not any HC's in the NFL who can hold a candle to Belichick on an even playing field.   

[BuffaloBillyG]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

Myth: BUSTED 

[Forward Progress]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Myth: BUSTED 

 

This may be the greatest thread bumping in the history of bumping threads.  🏆

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Myth: BUSTED 

 

The interwebs never forget

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

 

They were way worse than Gabe.

 

 

My favorite comment I saw:  "Toney beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl and then immediately turning into the worst player on the planet was every Giants fan's dream come true"

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

Toney made me THANKFUL for Davis.

[Captain Hindsight]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

More like bad Isiah McKenzie 

[Mango]

I think the answer at WR is similar to what KC did last year/this year and the groupings the Pats won with. Very good tight end and a lot of "pretty good" with specific skill sets. The idea QB's like Allen, Mahomes, Brady, etc. need Diggs and OBJ or Hopkins, or whoever isn't the solution. Not once you pay the QB. 

I think the Bills have gotten close but not quite there. Knox is very good but not great. Diggs is great. Davis is good but needs some consistency with his hands. Harty, Sherfield, Kincaid, and Kalil should all be able to contribute. I think the Bills have a bigger issue at pass catcher, we don't often put our WR in a position to succeed and we do a pretty mediocre job at spreading the ball out. We have to do a better job at making the defense cover everybody rather than our top 3 all the time. 

 

Brady and Mahomes pay the bills by throwing to the guy defenses ignore. Over the course of the season that should make life easier for Diggs and Co. 

[Mango]

11 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

They were way worse than Gabe.

 

 

My favorite comment I saw:  "Toney beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl and then immediately turning into the worst player on the planet was every Giants fan's dream come true"

 

I was typing something on another thread about Toney and after I hit "reply" I immediately got an ESPN notification he was cut. 

In a weird way I respect that Mahomes kept going back to him. It is something that I think sometimes holds Rodgers back. He openly says "I won't throw x the ball because of drops" (paraphrasing). At some point you have to make the right decisions about given plays and coverage. If John Smith costs you a game that's on John Smith. But he won't get better if you never throw to him. And the job for your other WR won't get any easier if you just ignore other players on the field either. 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

 

The concept isn't a terrible idea, but as has been pointed out KC still have Kelce.  The other issue would be the cap hit.  Believe it's been stated that for this season and next, the Bills are stuck with Diggs due to the hit.  But in 2025 if there is any more whining, issues coming from Diggs, at that point, he likely would be gone once the cap hit is low enough.

 

 

Personally I wasn't a big fan of getting Hopkins for the reasons the OP stated, we don't need a second elite WR.  One plus the talent around him when throwing in Allen is enough to win with.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

19 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think the answer at WR is similar to what KC did last year/this year and the groupings the Pats won with. Very good tight end and a lot of "pretty good" with specific skill sets. The idea QB's like Allen, Mahomes, Brady, etc. need Diggs and OBJ or Hopkins, or whoever isn't the solution. Not once you pay the QB. 

I think the Bills have gotten close but not quite there. Knox is very good but not great. Diggs is great. Davis is good but needs some consistency with his hands. Harty, Sherfield, Kincaid, and Kalil should all be able to contribute. I think the Bills have a bigger issue at pass catcher, we don't often put our WR in a position to succeed and we do a pretty mediocre job at spreading the ball out. We have to do a better job at making the defense cover everybody rather than our top 3 all the time. 

 

Brady and Mahomes pay the bills by throwing to the guy defenses ignore. Over the course of the season that should make life easier for Diggs and Co. 

Hmmm...so much to unpack here

I do tend to agree Dorsey and Allen need to find a way to spread the ball around and trust in your 4th and 5th option to make plays from time to time. Yet if you look at the very best WRs of which Diggs is one of them, they get high volumes of targets. 

My gut tells me this offense will be best if Diggs is around 110 receptions and Davis, Knox and Kincaid each get 6-8 TD receptions. 

[Mango]

35 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Hmmm...so much to unpack here

I do tend to agree Dorsey and Allen need to find a way to spread the ball around and trust in your 4th and 5th option to make plays from time to time. Yet if you look at the very best WRs of which Diggs is one of them, they get high volumes of targets. 

My gut tells me this offense will be best if Diggs is around 110 receptions and Davis, Knox and Kincaid each get 6-8 TD receptions. 

 

I am a less concerned about Diggs numbers vs other top receivers, and more concerned about the patterns of the two teams who consistently seem to be in their conference championship games. But I don't think we are saying something much different from each other either. Here are all the SB's from Brady and Mahomes, as well as their top receiver by receptions and league rank. 

2022 - Kelce - 110 (3) - Mahomes

2020 - Evans- 70 (33) - Brady

2019 - Kelce - 97 (8) - Mahomes

2018 - White - 87 (16) - Brady

2016 - Edelman - 98 (4) - Brady

2014 - Edelman - 92 (8) - Brady

2004 - Givens - 56 (41) - Brady

2003 - Branch - 57 (42) - Brady

2001- Brown - 101 (5) - Brady

 

I was curious so I added the SB's from any QB who won 2x since 2000. 
 

2015 - Thomas - 105 (7) - Manning

2011 - Cruz - 82 (9) - Eli

2008 - Ward - 81 (14) - Ben

2007 - Burress - 70 (30)- Eli

2006 - Harrison - 95 (3) - Manning

2005 - Ward - 69 (30) - Ben

 

To yours (and others) points, having somebody to go to as your outlet consistently is important. But Diggs doesn't need 110 targets either. Kelce last year would be the first time that happened to a QB who won multiple SB's in a SB year. 

 

Diggs doesn't need more targets, the rest of the WR corp does.  Some of this is on Beane, some on Dorsey, some on Allen, and some on the WR's themselves. 

 

 

[mjd1001]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

It it was possible, I would trade giving the WR room 10-20% less money if that could be used to improve the OL.  I think Allen could be even better throwing to a slightly worse WR group if he had slightly more time to do so and a slightly better Running game.