Bills Draftees Don't Contribute Much

[Snappysnackcakes]

9 hours ago, Yantha said:

Shakir DESERVED way more playing time in his rookie season.

 

 

He was having trouble with the playbook. Slot must recognize blitzes and act as an outlet, Shakir ended a couple drives early in the season by doing his job. 

[Yantha]

6 minutes ago, Snappysnackcakes said:

He was having trouble with the playbook. Slot must recognize blitzes and act as an outlet, Shakir ended a couple drives early in the season by doing his job. 

 

I'm sorry but I have no idea how you can know that without being an insider in the organization.  I'm not discounting the point at all, I just want to know how you can know information like that.  To me it wasn't evident on the field at all.

[Snappysnackcakes]

7 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

I'm sorry but I have no idea how you can know that without being an insider in the organization.  I'm not discounting the point at all, I just want to know how you can know information like that.  To me it wasn't evident on the field at all.

I witnessed it live. There’s a reason why a WR coach who was beloved by the players was sent packing, too. Was it all on Shakir? No. We were picking the proverbial WR trash heap by the end of the season. Do you really think they wanted to do this? Shakir was sitting there and they didn’t trust I’m enough to not sign CB and JB. I’ve no inside knowledge but I sure as hell can read football tea leaves. 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Snappysnackcakes
Spelling

[Yantha]

2 minutes ago, Snappysnackcakes said:

I witnessed it live. There’s a reason why a WR coach who was beloved by the players was sent packing, too. Was it all on Shakir? No. We were picking the proverbial WR trash heap by the end of the season. Do you really think they wanted to do this? Shakir was sitting there and they didn’t trust I’m enough to not sign CB and JB. I’ve no inside knowledge but I sure as hell can read football yea leaves. 

 

I guess it was less obvious watching from home.  I WISH I was live!  Thanks for the insight.  

[nedboy7]

6 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure it matters either way.  Exactly one SB winner in top 10 (TB) and in bottom 10 (LAR) in the 5 year period.  

 

You nailed it.  But the reality of your assessment doesn't match the narrative on here that Bean doesn't know what he is doing. 

[Dopey]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

In their rookie years he means?

Good question 

[Dopey]

6 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure it matters either way.  Exactly one SB winner in top 10 (TB) and in bottom 10 (LAR) in the 5 year period.  

We didn’t win the SB, so it’s “let’s take all off season to complain, about anything “. 
You’re making too much sense here. Stop it. 

[Bigvinny]

How does a 3rd round LB never see the field ? And your first round corner hardly sees the field. Meanwhile every Chiefs draft pick made plays in the Super Bowl and or the AFC Champ game. Pacheco was 6th round. 

[brianthomas]

the cold truth is if we didn't hit on Josh Allen, we would suck & suck bad.

this data on BILLS draft picks & their ineffectiveness just supports this claim.

[Malazan]

8 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

the cold truth is if we didn't hit on Josh Allen, we would suck & suck bad.

this data on BILLS draft picks & their ineffectiveness just supports this claim.

 

Yea, look at all the superbowl winners in the top of the 10 compared to the bottom 10. You're on to something here. KC being at number 1 tells us all we need to know. 

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Players who the Bills draft don't seem to contribute much according to Warren Sharp...

 

 

I went on twitter, and I went to sharp's site https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/content/

I want to look at methodology - does "drafted themselves" count UDFA, for example?

 

I don't read this as applying at all to how much the players played, as rookies.  I think what it means is that when McDermott arrived, he basically purged the building of players drafted and developed by previous regimes, and brought in FA he trusted as well as rookies. 

 

And a lot of those FA have held on to jobs for a long time - eg

DB Hyde, Poyer vs. Hamlin, Jaquan Johnson;

DL Star Lotulelei, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison over Harrison Phillips, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham and Greg Rousseau

 

It does mean that a number of players the Bills have drafted have NOT worked out for the Bills or have been traded elsewhere (I'm not including guys who reached FA and we didn't re-sign like Harrison Phillips and Tremaine Edmunds.)

 

2017 Zay Jones (2), Nathan Peterman (5), Tanner Vallejo (6)

2018 Wyatt Teller (5), Ray-Ray McCloud (6), Austin Proel (7)

2019 Cody Ford (2) , Vosean Joseph (5), Darryl Johnson (7), Tommy Sweeney (7)

2020 Zach Moss (3), Jake Fromm (5), Isaiah Hodgins (6)

2021 Marquez Stevenson (6), Rachad Wildgoose (6)

2022 Matt Araiza (6), Luke Tenuta (6)

 

What's striking to me looking back at 6 years of McDermott drafts and 5 years of Beane, is how many of the top draft choices have worked out, and worked out well, as well as how many of the players we moved on from are starting for other teams (Teller, McCloud, Hodgins).   Most of those players we moved on from are late-round players where the overall hit rate for every team is poor, and many of them stayed around for several years, but didn't beat out the guys ahead of them (McCloud, Sweeney, Hodgins)

 

But equally striking to me is how many of the times we did use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on offense, it hasn't worked out - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, and Zach Moss all big whiffs.  It's almost as though we have much better ability to identify and sign defensive talent.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, UConn James said:

McDermott’s distrust of rookies has been chronicled before. 

 

7 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

When you have a good team. Your rookies ain’t gonna see much time. 

 

This isn't just about rookies - he's talking about how many of the guys who saw snaps over a 5 year period were drafted by the team in question, pretty sure.

 

But a similar principle to the "when you have a good team....." applies

 

When you have a team that has a top offense and top defense and is winning a lot of games, the new player is going to struggle to beat out the entrenched player, wherever that player came from.  And, with 53 slots on the roster and 7 draft picks per year (max), over 5 years at least 1/3 of the roster (18 out of 53) has to come from elsewhere EVEN IF EVERY DRAFT PICK IN EVERY ROUND IS A HIT, which is of course statistically unlikely.  And entrenched starters are least likely to be beat out by late round draftees.

11 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

In their rookie years he means?

 

No, that can't be correct given the numbers, though I cant find the original article on his website or linked on twitter to see his methodology

 

[BillsFanSD]

Yep, and I've been beating this drum for a little while now.  I don't mind easing rookies into their role, and maybe that makes sense for a team like the Bills, who need to avoid the "rookie wall" so guys are fresh for the playoffs.  But McDermott seems genuinely allergic to putting rookies on the field, to the degree that I wonder if he and Beane are really on the same page.  If I were Beane, I think I'd be a little ticked at Cook and Shakir just standing around on the sidelines all year.  

 

For people who are playing the "it's hard for rookies to crack the lineup when our team is this good" card, let's recall that we had problems at slot all year -- it's not like Shakir had to beat out Cooper Kupp or anything.  And it's not like Cook had Thurman Thomas in front of him.  For that matter, remember when we would take Singletary off the field in his rookie year so Frank Gore could fall forward for two yards?  It's been like this since McDermott arrived.  He's philosophically committed to not playing rookies as a matter of principle.

Edited March 26, 2023 by BillsFanSD

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Yantha said:

Shakir DESERVED way more playing time in his rookie season.

 

 

 

Oh, really?  How so?

 

20 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

the cold truth is if we didn't hit on Josh Allen, we would suck & suck bad.

this data on BILLS draft picks & their ineffectiveness just supports this claim.

 

I don't think that's what this data is about.   But, Alert the Media; ANY team that doesn't hit on its QB is gonna suck and suck bad unless they have an offense that's predicated on the run game and crafted so that almost any QB can run it effectively (SF)

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[cgg716]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Josh Allen, Tre White, Tremaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis, Gregory Rousseau, and Christian Benford all disagree with you.

Dude started Peterman 

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Confusing tweet as I'm assuming it's the number of snaps the players we drafted in the last five years played for us. 

 

A lot of this goes back to the 2017 offseason where we got five regulars that have started nearly every snap for at least five of the last six years (White, Dawkins, Milano, Poyer, Hyde).  There's other reasons (Diggs trade, d-line rotation, etc.) but that's pry the main reason.  Not many teams have that many core starters over the last six years.  This list means very little by the way except to laugh at the Raiders.

DingDingDingDing this guy gets it. 

 

Starting back in 2017, we picked up some FA that have nailed down their starting jobs -

2017 Poyer, Hyde (already had Hughes), Taiwan Jones (5 seasons, not continuous)

2018 Lotulelei, Phillips (3 seasons, not continuous)

2019 Morse, Feliciano (3 seasons), Addison (2 seasons), Brown (2 seasons), Beasley (3 seasons)

2020 Diggs, Matakevich (ST), Roberts (ST, 2 seasons)

 

And one important factor I can't discern, is how is he counting UDFA?   For example, Levi Wallace went undrafted, but played 2805 snaps for us from his rookie year thru 2021.  So is he counting as a player we drafted, or no?

 

It's really a factor of where did the guys come from who locked down their roles.  It doesn't show that we drafted badly (since in most cases, even the guys we drafted late and moved on from are still playing in the league - see post above).  It doesn't show that McDermott won't play rookies, since it seems to be talking about every snap over the last 5 years.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

 

I'm sorry but I have no idea how you can know that without being an insider in the organization.  I'm not discounting the point at all, I just want to know how you can know information like that.  To me it wasn't evident on the field at all.

You contradict yourself with the statement and your precious statement. You say he deserved more playing time but then state this. Using your own logic, how would you know he deserved more playing time if you yourself isn’t an insider in the organization?  

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Josh Allen, Tre White, Tremaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis, Gregory Rousseau, and Christian Benford all disagree with you.

 

And don't forget a guy like Levi Wallace who walked on as an UDFA, started his rookie season, and kept the job for 4 seasons.

7 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure it matters either way.  Exactly one SB winner in top 10 (TB) and in bottom 10 (LAR) in the 5 year period.  

 

THANK YOU! 

 

If we look at the two teams who played in the SB, we have 2 teams in the top 10 (TB, CIN)

Two teams in the bottom 10 (LAR, twice)

6 teams presumably somewhere in the middle (KC x 3, Eagles, Pats, 49ers)

 

I think the moral of the story is that there's more than 1 way to skin a muskrat build a winning roster

 

This is what we used to refer to as a "garbage can stat" - a statistic which looks important, but doesn't apparently have predictive value.

[hondo in seattle]

Beane has done well in free agency.  But you can't fill up a roster with free agents - it's too expensive.  You need guys on rookie contracts.   And some of the cheaper guys need to be more than just backups.  They need to contribute.  

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, Bigvinny said:

How does a 3rd round LB never see the field ? And your first round corner hardly sees the field. Meanwhile every Chiefs draft pick made plays in the Super Bowl and or the AFC Champ game. Pacheco was 6th round. 

We had 2 studs at lb already and we usually only play 2 lbs at a time. Our 1st round cb was beat out by another rookie. Pacheco was a 7th round pick and replaced a 1st round pick who wasn’t that good. We play rookies, we’re just a deeper team that can let rookies develop, if they’re not better than the starters. 

[Buffarukus]

12 hours ago, Virgil said:

Considering the rotation we run on our defensive line and the amount of picks we dump into it, not surprising 

 

at what point do we decide this heavy rotation is not working. you got guys as fresh as can be still not dominating the line thats in all game. it doesnt really mitigating injuries. pick your best four and rotate them when needed but i think consistency may yield better rewards then energy levels at this point. 🤔

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, Yantha said:

Shakir DESERVED way more playing time in his rookie season.

 

 

and so did Cook.  We banished him because he fumbled his first pro-snap.  This team needs to trust its rookies more

[ColoradoBills]

It's true that McDermott does tend to trust a veteran more than a rookie and there is merit to McDermott's starting rookies slowly due in a

large part to the long NFL season compared to college.  I think Beane has gone along with it always trying to fill all holes with some sort of

a veteran before the draft.

 

Now that the core team is together, and the cap is much tighter and definitely will be tight again next spring, I do feel that McDermott will,

out of necessity, have to ease up on his mantra concerning rookies.  I don't expect a huge change, but I do see a need for compromise.

[BearNorth]

11 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Looking over the list one thing is for certain..being in the top 10 or bottom 10 doesn't dictate success or failure. There's a mixed bag in both groups.

 

I saw a similar situation with regard to O-Line, some of the highest ranking O-Lines play for non-contenders, and some of the lesser groups play for contenders [e.g. Bills].  The fact that the Bills have had sub-par O-line play and have still won 72% of their games over the past 4 years, is a real tribute to Allen, (Diggs for three of those), and the defense.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Snappysnackcakes said:

I witnessed it live. There’s a reason why a WR coach who was beloved by the players was sent packing, too. Was it all on Shakir? No. We were picking the proverbial WR trash heap by the end of the season. Do you really think they wanted to do this? Shakir was sitting there and they didn’t trust I’m enough to not sign CB and JB. I’ve no inside knowledge but I sure as hell can read football tea leaves. 

 

I dunno if Shakir was struggling with the playbook per se, but he was sure as hell struggling to apply it on the field at times.  And, I do think Beane traded for Hines in part to free Shakir from the PR/KR role so that he could focus his attention on mastering his WR role - Beane alluded to "a big step up in competition for (Shakir)" and allowing him to focus on WR, when making the move

 

But I believe that people over-interpret signing Cole Beasley and John Brown.  The fact is, by mid-November we simply overall had insufficient bodies to play WR.  We started the season with 6 WR on the roster - Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, and Kumerow (primarily a ST). 

 

By mid-October, Crowder was out for the season with a broken leg, and we'd elevated Hodgins.

Then Beane got caught in a squeeze at CB with the need to activate a player who couldn't or wouldn't play yet (Tre White) while another was injured, and decided to sacrifice a WR to waivers in order to keep an extra CB.  Hodgins got sniped by the Giants.

 

That meant that by November, we were giving meaningful in-game snaps to Jake Kumerow just to field 5 bodies at WR, and once Kumerow went on IR 11-20, we were giving meaningful in-game snaps to Tanner Gentry.  We literally only had 4 WR on the whole roster, for a team which keeps 5 active every game.

 

Signing Brown and Beasley was a desperation play to bring in bodies at WR, bodies who knew the playbook and were trusted to come with the right attitude - it did not reflect lack of trust in McKenzie or lack of trust in Shakir (although, obviously if they trusted him more comprehensively, he would have gotten more snaps instead of fielding Kumerow or Gentry,

I offer as evidence Shakir's snap counts, which actually did not decline, but increased, after John Brown was signed to the PS 11/26 and Beasley 12/13.  39% of the snaps in Chicago on Christmas Eve, 41% in the Miami Playoff.  Oh, and 44% on Thanksgiving in Detroit.

 

In hindsight, Beane mis-managed the whole matter of opening Tre White's window and of chosing to waive Hodgins vs. someone else, when Kumerow was apparently struggling with a back issue all season in addition to a high ankle sprain.  But, I assume Beane went with the input of trainers and doctors and White himself, so it's hard to fault him too much.

 

 

[Airseven]

Yeah but I’m told Beane’s draftees cling to the bottom of NFL rosters and wind up with the most games played ever. So that’s awesome.

[PrimeTime101]

1. Mc.D likes to sit some of the positions for a year, Like WR and DE.  These are players that can develop on the bench without hurting a "SB" ready team.

2. One thing Mc.D does not take kindly to is drops and fumbles. Shakir had 2 drops early in the season and Cook had the dropsies too. He does not tolerate it and I respect Mc.D for that.

3. I seriously think this GM/HC combo has a different philosophy outside their first draft. They try hard to plug holes so they are more wide open to the talent as much as position needed so yea.. 

4. I don't think I would categorize our last 2-3 drafts as great... yet.. 

 

Does McD need to have more trust and faith in his rookies? Absolutely.. But that being said, if he feels the same rookies will hurt this team more than help.. Then they sit the bench.

 

I would argue Davis should have seen the bench more while he was struggling and while Shakir was excelling he should of had more playing time. 

 

As far as the CB situation? that was tough.. No White do to injuries early on so he had to 1. decipher which CB was the better of the 2 and then decide if they wanted a vet. 

 

In short? I trust the process but the process needs to speed the heck up a bit. 

[cle23]

10 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

Good lord what is going on in Vegas?  

 

Mike Mayock happened.

 

But Ruggs with his situation, and the Raiders didn't have a pick until round 3 last year.  Leatherwood, their 2021 1st is already gone.  Arnette is gone.  Clellin Ferrell is gone.  Jonathan Abrams.  All well before their contracts expired.  All 1st rounders.

Edited March 26, 2023 by cle23

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

and so did Cook.  We banished him because he fumbled his first pro-snap.  This team needs to trust its rookies more

 

This is bunkum.  It's true that Cook only got 2 snaps in that game and sat down once he fumbled, but we were also beating the Rams 31-10 so there was no "need" to trust Cook more.

 

However, the next game Cook got 18 snaps and 11 carries.  Some Banishment.

 

There were hints that Cook wasn't practicing and preparing the way the Bills expected (McDermott said after one of the mid-season games "he's starting to see that the way you play reflects how you practice"), which taken at face value, would imply there were issues that had nothing to do with a fumble.

 

Then Cook steadily got more snaps until after week 12, he was getting 31-56% of the snaps consistently at the end of the season.

 

That's all consistent with a rookie who at first, maybe didn't give game prep and practice the attention it needed, but who settled in and was trusted more and more by the team as he EARNED IT in practice - not with a team that abstractly needs to "trust its rookies more", that doesn't trust its rookies even though they're ready and have earned trust, or that "banished" Cook for 1 fumble.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Buffarukus said:

 

at what point do we decide this heavy rotation is not working. you got guys as fresh as can be still not dominating the line thats in all game. it doesnt really mitigating injuries. pick your best four and rotate them when needed but i think consistency may yield better rewards then energy levels at this point. 🤔

 

This is actually a great question and probably deserves its own topic as discussion.

 

 McDermott has always built his defensive system on a heavy rotation of keeping guys fresh.

But, that inevitably means we're paying more players on DL - and paying more players, it follows that we can't follow a "Stars and Jags" model where we pay the Stars well and the Jags only fill in if injuries strike.

 

It seems to me that the other top teams pay and play their top guys more, and consequently have Monsters up the middle - Philly, KC, SF.  But, I really haven't looked "under the hood" to scrutinize the details of snap counts etc.

 

I do know at the end of the season, say from week 9 on, Ed Oliver was getting ~70% of the snaps at 3TDT and DaQuan Jones ~70% from week 13 on until he DNP vs the Bengals.  I think that would be because Phillips missed Week 13, 14 and the Mia playoff, and was playing hampered Week 15 and 16 and the Division round, and because Tim Settle wasn't "getting it done" to their satisfaction after an early season calf injury. 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[papazoid]

6 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

Now do rounds 2-7

 

i avoided those....they didnt help my arguement.....lol

 

2017 - dawkins & milano

2018 - taron johnson & wyatt teller (yea i know)

2019 - singletary & knox

2020- davis, bass, hodgins (yea i know)

 

and i'm sure you can name alot of misses

 

seriously tho, there is not a direct coorelation between rookies playing and team success.....of the final 4 conference championship teams, only 1 (cincy) made that top 10 list

[BillsShredder83]

11 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

Good lord what is going on in Vegas?  

im guessing the high turnover of picks. that year they get all those picks for Khalil, they all busted. have had another front office shakeup since then too

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Of course he did and so did Elam. Just a incredibly stupid philosophy by McDermott. If you want to mistrust your 5th round pick fine, coddle & sit them. But early round picks should be developed or evaluated immediately. 

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

Tweet seems pretty straightforward to mean the part that is bolded from your statement. The tweet itself says "total snaps".   I am not sure why anyone would read it to mean "during their rookie year", since there is no mention of rookie or first year and the number do not seem to make sense for only rookie years. 

No.  That's not the reason.  It was more to do with whether the total snaps played the last five seasons included players originally drafted by the team more than five years ago (White, Milano, Dawkins).  The tweet said "total snaps played in last 5 years by players a team drafted themselves."  It doesn't specify whether for example Mahomes would count for the Chiefs as he's a player they drafted themselves six years ago.

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

As a fan I’d rather see Shakir struggle than McKenzie, same can be said about Elam and Dane Jackson. If all players are struggling isn’t it best to go with the younger, superior talent? Late in the season they have the better chance of improving to help us down the stretch. 
 

It’s funny how so many people keep saying we can fill these holes with our draft picks, but if it take 3 or 4 years for them to contribute you ain’t filling anything. Look at our dline, how many picks has McD wasted there only to keep bringing in vets every year because it ain’t strong enough. 

[Mat68]

They fell into some FAs that turned out to be leaders of the franchise.  Hyde and Poyer feel like home grown guys but were bargin FAs who became stars.  Overall, Beane’s drafts are becoming questionable but his ability to find lower FAs has offset the depth.  

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

 

Stop Making Sense

[Simon Says]

18 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Players who the Bills draft don't seem to contribute much according to Warren Sharp...

 

Does he take into consideration how MANY draft picks a team had? That could skew the calculations.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

19 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

 

We have not done the best job in the draft, however the parameters of the 5 year period don't really fit well for this team during that time period. McBeane were in the process of completely rebuilding the roster 5 years ago. 2018 team above; there are only 2 starters on Offense and 5 starters on defense from that team currently on the roster and we drafted exactly 5 of those. 

That doesn't make sense and is actually opposite. A roster rebuild would actually favor Beane and McDermott playing more of their own draft picks. 

4 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

Isn't that the job of the coaching staff to teach them? 

The Chiefs' rookies had no problem getting playing time. 

 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

That doesn't make sense and is actually opposite. A roster rebuild would actually favor Beane and McDermott playing more of their own draft picks. 

Isn't that the job of the coaching staff to teach them? 

The Chiefs' rookies had no problem getting playing time. 

 

Coaches are the teachers but not all students are great students.  Not all Chiefs rookies were big contributors.  I don't equate all playing time with good contributions.