Gabe Davis caught an abysmal 51.6% of his 93 targets this year. Update: High% off target

[Norcalbillsfan]

22 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Gabes problem other than he can’t catch is that he’s horrible in the short and intermediate areas of the field.  

And he doesn't work back to josh on broken plays, which would be a massive help to joshs game. On the all 22 you will see him just kinda standing across feild while josh is scrambling looking down feild. Maybe the most dangerous part of mahomes game is his ability to scramble and hit a reciever working back to him. Kelce is elite at it. Then you see josh scramble and Gabe is opposite feild just giving up on the play.

[fergie's ire]

43 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

And he doesn't work back to josh on broken plays, which would be a massive help to joshs game. On the all 22 you will see him just kinda standing across feild while josh is scrambling looking down feild. Maybe the most dangerous part of mahomes game is his ability to scramble and hit a reciever working back to him. Kelce is elite at it. Then you see josh scramble and Gabe is opposite feild just giving up on the play.

My strongest emotional response after the Bengals game was "I am so done with Gabe Davis."  It is this "giving up" that annoys me so much, not just running routes but contested balls.  If he's not open it seems like he barely tries.  There's no fight in him.  Knox had drops but they were the easy ones...the ones he didn't have to fight for.  Not fighting for the ball is worse than a drop in my book.  Unfortunately, though I feel done with him, I don't think they can do much to move on now.  They wouldn't get much for him.  Have to hope he comes back next year with better focus.  Before the season I had hoped he would develop into a 1A type receiver and they could trade him for assets, because given what the receiver market was last year wouldn't be able to afford to extend such a receiver...but would have been a great asset to move.

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Anyone who thinks 41% of the incompletions were bad throws from Josh is smoking crack. Josh threw too many low percentage passes, but a relatively high amount were catchable. Gabe was his own worst enemy.

So you don't think the way Dorsey is using Davis has anything to do with it? 

 

Use Gabe Davis in the short game more and Davis's numbers get better IMO.

 

You can look at how on average a QB's completion percentage drops when you go from short to long range targeting. This carries over to the WR.

[PrimeTime101]

On 2/5/2023 at 7:40 PM, Figster said:

 

I only puked at your post cause these numbers make me sick. JA dropping dimes for Davis is the only thing that has made Davis. 

[Andy1]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but I’ve heard that Gabe uses unorthodox hand positioning when catching the ball. I may have heard it a while ago on Locked on Bills podcast. I’m no expert but maybe he needs to go back to school on his technique instead of endlessly drilling bad technique. 

[LABILLBACKER]

23 hours ago, Mango said:

It’s not stat padding, it’s keeping drives alive and making defenses pay for making certain decisions. 
 

It is a very real, regular, and necessary part of playing the QB position. 

Some of the greatest qbs in history understood the value of shorter passes and checkdowns.  It's how you get defenses out of cover2 shell.  Josh will have to eat some of his ego and practice this.  So on a different note will the Bills exercise their 5th year on Gabe? 

[Mango]

59 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Some of the greatest qbs in history understood the value of shorter passes and checkdowns.  It's how you get defenses out of cover2 shell.  Josh will have to eat some of his ego and practice this.  So on a different note will the Bills exercise their 5th year on Gabe? 

There is no 5th year. It’s extend or let walk. Only first round picks get the option. 
 

I think they re-sign. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Mango

[Meatloaf63]

11 hours ago, Figster said:

So you don't think the way Dorsey is using Davis has anything to do with it? 

 

Use Gabe Davis in the short game more and Davis's numbers get better IMO.

 

You can look at how on average a QB's completion percentage drops when you go from short to long range targeting. This carries over to the WR.

Possibly a little as easier catches should’ve improved his drop rate somewhat. But Gabe doesn’t seem to get much separation so contested catches become the problem with that. I was a huge Gabe 👾 fan. I live in Orlando and I watched him play at UCF, but he needs to improve a lot over what he did last season for me to want him to stay the Buffalo Bill.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Meatloaf63

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Possibly a little as easier catches should’ve improved his drop rate somewhat. But Gabe doesn’t seem to get much separation so contested catches become the problem with that. I was a huge Gabe 👾 fan. I live in Orlando and I watched him play at UCF, but he needs to improve a lot over what he did last season for me to want him to stay the Buffalo Bill.

One common denominator in all of this is, there was always a veteran over Gabe Davis in previous years. Perhaps that took some of the heat off of him and he over, took that veteran as the season went on. He didn’t have that this year he was the guy at number two.

[Don Otreply]

11 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Some of the greatest qbs in history understood the value of shorter passes and checkdowns.  It's how you get defenses out of cover2 shell.  Josh will have to eat some of his ego and practice this.  So on a different note will the Bills exercise their 5th year on Gabe? 

Yup, Josh really does need to incorporated the shorter passes into his craft, imo he has not matured enough in this aspect, he needs to get past this portion of his ego. If or when he does embrace this aspect of his craft he will truly become a devastatingly good QB that teams dread playing, not saying he isn’t a big talent because he is, but could you just imagine josh figuring this out, he would be near unstoppable. 

[Madbillsfan]

How many were over or under thrown passes?

[BuffaloRebound]

1 minute ago, Madbillsfan said:

How many were over or under thrown passes?

Yeah.  Davis needs a better QB.  That Josh Allen is a bum! 

[Chicken Boo]

For the first 3 or 4 seasons of his career Devante Adams was a slot guy who had a problem with drops.  He actually led the league with 10 in 2015.  He's now the best in the business.  (That's right, not Jefferson)

 

Just a gentle reminder.  

 

[BananaB]

Bills put a lot of faith in Gabe and McKenzie and both were a huge disappointed. Curious to see what Beane does this off-season. 

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

23 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

 

 

 

 

 

44 Targets

27 Catches (61.4%)

3 TDs 

541 yards

 

Thats Robert Foster’s rookie numbers, just running those same deep go routes, with rookie Josh Allen who couldn’t hit the broadside of the hospitality tent.  We all know Josh’s ball placement was nowhere near what it is now.  Which means I think that 41% you put on Josh for “flat out misses” more likely just

A-Gabe being a non-elite route runner

B-Gabe not getting separation

C-Gabe being slow

D-All of the above 

 

Not saying Josh is perfect, he misses a couple a game, but there is no way he “flat out missed” Gabe Davis almost half of every time he threw his way, that’s ridiculous.  
 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

44 Targets

27 Catches (61.4%)

3 TDs 

541 yards

 

Thats Robert Foster’s rookie numbers, just running those same deep go routes, with rookie Josh Allen who couldn’t hit the broadside of the hospitality tent.  We all know Josh’s ball placement was nowhere near what it is now.  Which means I think that 41% you put on Josh for “flat out misses” more likely just

A-Gabe being a non-elite route runner

B-Gabe not getting separation

C-Gabe being slow

D-All of the above 

 

Not saying Josh is perfect, he misses a couple a game, but there is no way he “flat out missed” Gabe Davis almost half of every time he threw his way, that’s ridiculous.  
 

 

 

Ehh, Davis had over twice as many targets this year as Foster in the year you cite.

 

I attribute that to the Josh/Dorsey philosophy of having never seen a bomb they dont like.

 

Way too many times this year the Bills would get the ball back and go bomb-bomb-sack-punt.

 

I dont think they were ALL misses by Josh, but I think a good portion of them were bad decisions - throwing deep, low percentage balls into tight coverage (and sometimes into double and triple coverage).

 

Throw another 50 bombs at Foster, against Defenses that are knowingly baiting Josh to throw it deep, and see how it goes.

 

Davis definitely had a disappointing season on his own and has a lot to improve upon, I am not arguing against that. But so do Dorsey and Josh from this year.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/6/2023 at 10:16 AM, BillsShredder83 said:

They play different positions. Gabe in the slot is NOT going to work. Hes awful w anything not deep.

 

Shakir also should stay in the slot where its most natural. Just flipping their positions makes this team worse. We need an outside WR

not suggesting Gabe, as a three means he is our slot. Just that he should be third in targets from the wide receiver position. Shakir would play a split from the slot and from the outside, but number two in targets on the team.

 

ideally, Knox would probably be third in targets on the team, and Davis would come in fourth in targets on the team, but number third in targets from the receiver group.

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Ehh, Davis had over twice as many targets this year as Foster in the year you cite.

 

I attribute that to the Josh/Dorsey philosophy of having never seen a bomb they dont like.

 

Way too many times this year the Bills would get the ball back and go bomb-bomb-sack-punt.

 

I dont think they were ALL misses by Josh, but I think a good portion of them were bad decisions - throwing deep, low percentage balls into tight coverage (and sometimes into double and triple coverage).

 

Throw another 50 bombs at Foster, against Defenses that are knowingly baiting Josh to throw it deep, and see how it goes.

 

Davis definitely had a disappointing season on his own and has a lot to improve upon, I am not arguing against that. But so do Dorsey and Josh from this year.

   Said it before and I’ll say it again, Dorsey calls plays in sequences like you would imagine a college QB doing it, he (Dorsey) needs to emphasize to Josh that throwing low success percentage passes at inopportune moments is not helping the team.

   They (Dorsey & Josh) need to think more about staying on the field, moving the chains, eating more clock and still scoring points, it’s the winning combination that the Bills fans buddy Tom Brady used to win the AFCE and championships, all those years. With a team as good as the Bills are, it’s the fine tuning of the offense that will put us over the top. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Victory Formation]

Buffalo needs at least two quality WRs this offseason. We need an outside guy and someone in the slot.

[Figster]

 

[Orlando Tim]

Gabe was a large disappointment for me this year, but I do believe he hurt his right hand early in the year. He dropped some easy throws several times that were not normal for him, and his contested ball work was very poor. I know we will give him one more chance but hope this year he gets it all together. I will also state he was certainly misused. 

[prissythecat]

11 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

Gabe was a large disappointment for me this year, but I do believe he hurt his right hand early in the year. He dropped some easy throws several times that were not normal for him, and his contested ball work was very poor. I know we will give him one more chance but hope this year he gets it all together. I will also state he was certainly misused. 

 

it’s possible Gabe may also have been affected by the earthquake in Buffalo this Monday.  So it might take a little longer for him to get it all together.

[Jim]

1 minute ago, prissythecat said:

 

it’s possible Gabe may also have been affected by the earthquake in Buffalo this Monday.  So it might take a little longer for him to get it all together.

Obviously this is a joke prissy, but seriously it does feel like some Bills fans will make any excuse for these guys. Davis hurt his hand? And when was this?

[Nephilim17]

Given his big playoff game and couple more this year (there are always people enamoured with a couple flashy moments despite inconsistency) and a cost-controlled contract for one more year, I wouldn't be shocked if Beane was able to swing a player-for-player trade for Gabe or maybe even 4th rounder or something. 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/7/2023 at 9:29 AM, fergie's ire said:

My strongest emotional response after the Bengals game was "I am so done with Gabe Davis."  It is this "giving up" that annoys me so much, not just running routes but contested balls.  If he's not open it seems like he barely tries.  There's no fight in him.  Knox had drops but they were the easy ones...the ones he didn't have to fight for.  Not fighting for the ball is worse than a drop in my book.  Unfortunately, though I feel done with him, I don't think they can do much to move on now.  They wouldn't get much for him.  Have to hope he comes back next year with better focus.  Before the season I had hoped he would develop into a 1A type receiver and they could trade him for assets, because given what the receiver market was last year wouldn't be able to afford to extend such a receiver...but would have been a great asset to move.

 

 

I totally disagree with this.

 

He gives up? Just the opposite. One of his absolute strengths is that when Allen is scrambling for extra time Davis is terrific at keeping the play going and finding space. He's terrific at it.

 

He's got his limitations, certainly, but he fights for contested balls and keeps going when he's covered. Both strengths for him.

 

 

On 2/7/2023 at 9:56 AM, Figster said:

So you don't think the way Dorsey is using Davis has anything to do with it? 

 

Use Gabe Davis in the short game more and Davis's numbers get better IMO.

 

You can look at how on average a QB's completion percentage drops when you go from short to long range targeting. This carries over to the WR.

 

 

He's got a tight lower body, hips and legs. I hadn't thought it was all that big a deal, but according to Joe Marino the other day, this is a physical limitation for him. And it means he's mostly going to be doing more vertical routes. This means he's not as good at hard horizontal cuts.

[Figster]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I totally disagree with this.

 

He gives up? Just the opposite. One of his absolute strengths is that when Allen is scrambling for extra time Davis is terrific at keeping the play going and finding space. He's terrific at it.

 

He's got his limitations, certainly, but he fights for contested balls and keeps going when he's covered. Both strengths for him.

 

 

 

 

He's got a tight lower body, hips and legs. I hadn't thought it was all that big a deal, but according to Joe Marino the other day, this is a physical limitation for him. And it means he's mostly going to be doing more vertical routes. This means he's not as good at hard horizontal cuts.

Thanks for this

[LABILLBACKER]

16 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

it’s possible Gabe may also have been affected by the earthquake in Buffalo this Monday.  So it might take a little longer for him to get it all together.

I'm tired of all the excuses for Gabe. Start Shakir at slot as your wr3 and stick Gabe outside as wr4.  Draft your wr2 in rounds 1 or 2. Love Quentin Johnston if he falls to 27.

Edited February 9, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Figster]

 

[Big Turk]

 

On 2/7/2023 at 9:48 PM, Orlando Tim said:

Gabe was a large disappointment for me this year, but I do believe he hurt his right hand early in the year. He dropped some easy throws several times that were not normal for him, and his contested ball work was very poor. I know we will give him one more chance but hope this year he gets it all together. I will also state he was certainly misused. 

 

Only because you had highly unrealistic expectations.

[Orlando Tim]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Only because you had highly unrealistic expectations.

I can't argue apparently, I thought he would go for 80 catches and 1000 yards, along with 12 TDs. From the first Dolphin game on, except for Pittsburgh, he looked mediocre. 

[hemma]

22 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Given his big playoff game and couple more this year (there are always people enamoured with a couple flashy moments despite inconsistency) and a cost-controlled contract for one more year, I wouldn't be shocked if Beane was able to swing a player-for-player trade for Gabe or maybe even 4th rounder or something. 

3rd/4th rounder sounds good to me.

3 years, time move on and clear the clutter.

[Nephilim17]

16 minutes ago, hemma said:

3rd/4th rounder sounds good to me.

3 years, time move on and clear the clutter.

I think if we get a third rounder it's no question: cost controlled contract for four years vs. Gabe who will seek a relatively big payday after this year. Yes, the draft is a crapshoot but Gabe is still inconsistent too and most agree not a true number two.

[Maine-iac]

Worth a listen.  From what I've seen this might sting a little unless you have an open mind. 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Gabe’s got a picture up right now on Instagram or Twitter with Bert Kriescher and he’s got a full beer belly 3-weeks after the season.

 

So I don’t want to hear about him being the hardest worker on the Bills.

 

Draft a Round 1 WR. 

[Madbillsfan]

On 2/7/2023 at 9:08 AM, BuffaloRebound said:

Yeah.  Davis needs a better QB.  That Josh Allen is a bum! 

I don’t remember saying that. 

[TonawandaTroy]

I thought he would break out last year, time to find an upgrade! 

[Maine-iac]

6 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Gabe’s got a picture up right now on Instagram or Twitter with Bert Kriescher and he’s got a full beer belly 3-weeks after the season.

 

So I don’t want to hear about him being the hardest worker on the Bills.

 

Draft a Round 1 WR. 

3 out the top 5 pass catchers the last two seasons were not 1st round picks ............ just saying.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

3 out the top 5 pass catchers the last two seasons were not 1st round picks ............ just saying.

Yeah you’re right let’s keeping going with our old FAs and late rounders. 
 

And yes I know Diggs was a 5th Rounder. 

[Beck Water]

On 2/6/2023 at 11:39 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

I know bashing Davis is hot right now (along with bashing anyone/everyone else from the team), but let's look at those numbers...

 

93 Targets

51.3% Catches (48)

7 true Drops

 

48 catches + 7 drops = 55

 

93 - 55 =38

 

So for all those targets, 38 of them (41%) were flat out misses by Josh. Mostly those deep, low percentage heaves that Josh just cant STOP himself from throwing when the D shows Cover 0 or Man or whatever gets him so excited.

 

I'm in favor of the "let's not make Gabe Davis our new whipping boy" theme.  I would agree in general, the routes he was asked to run/throws Josh made didn't do Gabe any favors. 

 

That said, I think your understanding of what constitutes a scored "drop" and how to calculate "flat out misses by the QB" are both incomplete.

 

A "drop" is pretty much defined as a throw that a competent receiver should be able to make easily.  Basically, the ball hits the WR in a frame between the head and the hips and maybe a forearm length to the side, no more

 

There are plenty of throws that a good NFL-quality WR is expected to be able to haul in, that are not scored as "drops".

 

That is not to say that a number of the throws in Gabe's direction were not off-target (not necessarily misses, but thrown over Gabe, possibly because he was held or didn't run as fast as Josh expected, possibly poor throws.

 

Data on how many throws were "catchable" vs. "throw aways" or so far off target there was no chance, are out there.  However, you can not determine what that number is, by simply subtracting his catches + drops from his targets, and saying the rest were "flat out misses by Josh"

 

That's simply not correct.

 

There's also a point that while his catch % was a career low and his drop % a career high this season, he ran about 55% his previous 2 years, when Josh was not throwing as many deep bombs and when elbow injury/accuracy were not believed to be factors.  That's not good, for a #2.

 

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Beck Water

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm in favor of the "let's not make Gabe Davis our new whipping boy" theme.  I would agree in general, the routes he was asked to run/throws Josh made didn't do Gabe any favors. 

 

That said, I think your understanding of what constitutes a scored "drop" and how to calculate "flat out misses by the QB" are both incomplete.

 

A "drop" is pretty much defined as a throw that a competent receiver should be able to make easily.  Basically, the ball hits the WR in a frame between the head and the hips and maybe a forearm length to the side, no more

 

There are plenty of throws that a good NFL-quality WR is expected to be able to haul in, that are not scored as "drops".

 

That is not to say that a number of the throws in Gabe's direction were not off-target (not necessarily misses, but thrown over Gabe, possibly because he was held or didn't run as fast as Josh expected, possibly poor throws.

 

Data on how many throws were "catchable" vs. "throw aways" or so far off target there was no chance, are out there.  However, you can not determine what that number is, by simply subtracting his catches + drops from his targets, and saying the rest were "flat out misses by Josh"

 

That's simply not correct.

 

There's also a point that while his catch % was a career low and his drop % a career high this season, he ran about 55% his previous 2 years, when Josh was not throwing as many deep bombs and when elbow injury/accuracy were not believed to be factors.  That's not good, for a #2.

 

 

Even as I say this I will explain I do think he had some issues with not making some catches I would have liked to seen him make.  That said the guys average depth of target was around 6 yards deeper than other #2 receivers.  It doesn't excuse everything but it certainly does explain both how his production can be somewhat manic and also why he has more TD's than most #2 receivers you'll see.