Playoff Solutions Assuming they don’t replay the Bengals game.

[Punch]

I haven’t seen this discussed beyond this tweet—- I’m interpreting this as a realistic possibility, am I wrong?

[Einstein]

33 minutes ago, boilertiger said:

Also, not an on field death but in 2011, Jevon Belcher (Chiefs starting LB) murdered his girlfriend and mother of his 3 month old daughter.

 

Belcher then drove to Arrowhead stadium. Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel in the parking lot tried to calm him down. Belcher asked Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli to take care of his daughter before shooting him self in the head. Chiefs had a game the next day.

 

 

He had CTE too.

 

The Hunt’s did as he requested and took care of his daughter. They started a trust fund for her.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

Not quite. If the Bills, Ravens and Raiders win, then the AFC North and the number three seed is still up for grabs. If the Bengals beat the Bills they take it; if the Bills beat the Bengals then the Ravens do.

ugh. You are right. What is sort of pointless though is to play that game at that point, because the Bills will have locked up homefield and so would rest their starters. You sort of wonder if the bills would forfeit the game, if that is allowed. Sort of would stink for the ravens. 

[Seventeen]

3 minutes ago, Punch said:

I haven’t seen this discussed beyond this tweet—- I’m interpreting this as a realistic possibility, am I wrong?

 

Nope not wrong -  I'm assuming the 19th week would be the current wild-card weekend and everything moved a week out x/c for the SB.

[Kiva]

7 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have a feeling the NFL will wait and see what happens this week. I think if the bills, raiders, and ravens win this weekend, the bills-bengals game is meaningless for every purpose, and they can declare it a forfeit. 

Raiders are not beating KC. The cinci game will need to be finished. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Just now, Kiva said:

Raiders are not beating KC. The cinci game will need to be finished. 

just wait— you aren’t going to see those mysterious calls going for the chiefs this weekend! 

[UKBillFan]

13 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

ugh. You are right. What is sort of pointless though is to play that game at that point, because the Bills will have locked up homefield and so would rest their starters. You sort of wonder if the bills would forfeit the game, if that is allowed. Sort of would stink for the ravens. 

Agreed. I think at least one of the Chiefs or Bengals will win at the weekend so the number one seed would still be up for grabs, as long as the Bills beat the Pats. But, should they both lose and the Bills win, then they’d as good as forfeit the Bengals game anyway. It would be pointless and I can understand the Ravens not being impressed (whilst acknowledging they’d do the same thing in the Bills position).

Edited January 4, 2023 by UKBillFan

[Low Positive]

None of this really matters, but since this thread is discussing football stuff I will post this here. I can't see the Bills beating the Pats this Sunday. Are Fraiser, Dorsey, and McDermott game planning as we speak? Will they hold practice to install the game plan tomorrow? Who's playing slot corner? Who's playing FS? Are all those players that looked shellshocked last night going to be ready to play at full-speed in a game that the Pats will play like a playoff game? IF we play the game, we'll have to play a preseason vanilla O and D with the Pats having everything to play for. I think the Bills go through the motions and get beat and enter the playoffs as the #3 seed. 

[HalftimeAdjustment]

Here are my thoughts on this topic, such as they are.

 

If the Bills do not play this Sunday, then they need to forfeit both games. I don't see the logic in forfeiting to the Patriots but not the Bengals. In that scenario, the Chiefs control their own destiny and the Bengals are #2 unless they win and the Chiefs lose; the Bills end up #3. However, I assume that the Bills will play on Sunday.

In any case where the Bills and Cinci are vying for the same spot, I think the resolution has to favor the Bengals. I wish that wasn't true, but it is what it is. Also, the Ravens are not going to win their division if the Bills/Bengals game can't be played. There's no logic I can see in which the Bengals can get tagged with a loss for Wk17. So the more I looked at this the less I could see a difference between "cancelling the game" and "Bills forfeit" in terms of practical results.

 

So, it breaks down like this in that case:

 - If KC wins OR ties their game, they are the #1 seed. In that case, Cinci is #2 if they win their game, otherwise they are #3 and Bills are #2.

 - If all 3 teams lose their game or if KC loses and the Bills and Bengals BOTH tie... KC is #1, Cinci #2, Buf #3.

 - If KC loses their game and the Bills win and the Bengals lose or tie, Buffalo is #1, KC is #2, and Cinci #3. 

 - If KC loses their game and the Bills lose or tie and the Bengals win, Cinci is #1, KC is #2, and Buf #3. 

 - If KC loses their game and the Bills win and the Bengals win, Cinci is #1, Buf #2, KC #3. 

 

Based on the above, assuming the Bills are playing this Sunday, a Bills forfeit for Wk17 is the most logical outcome - unless the NFL is REALLY prepared to mess with the playoff schedule a LOT to play this game. It is not reasonable to try to play Wk 18 Sunday, Wk 17 Thursday, and Playoff wk 1 on Monday... it is a bigger disadvantage than any team gets by the difference in 1-3 seeds.

 

 

 

 

 

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Here are my thoughts on this topic, such as they are.

 

If the Bills do not play this Sunday, then they need to forfeit both games. I don't see the logic in forfeiting to the Patriots but not the Bengals. In that scenario, the Chiefs control their own destiny and the Bengals are #2 unless they win and the Chiefs lose; the Bills end up #3. However, I assume that the Bills will play on Sunday.

In any case where the Bills and Cinci are vying for the same spot, I think the resolution has to favor the Bengals. I wish that wasn't true, but it is what it is. Also, the Ravens are not going to win their division if the Bills/Bengals game can't be played. There's no logic I can see in which the Bengals can get tagged with a loss for Wk17. So the more I looked at this the less I could see a difference between "cancelling the game" and "Bills forfeit" in terms of practical results.

 

So, it breaks down like this in that case:

 - If KC wins OR ties their game, they are the #1 seed. In that case, Cinci is #2 if they win their game, otherwise they are #3 and Bills are #2.

 - If all 3 teams lose their game or if KC loses and the Bills and Bengals BOTH tie... KC is #1, Cinci #2, Buf #3.

 - If KC loses their game and the Bills win and the Bengals lose or tie, Buffalo is #1, KC is #2, and Cinci #3. 

 - If KC loses their game and the Bills lose or tie and the Bengals win, Cinci is #1, KC is #2, and Buf #3. 

 - If KC loses their game and the Bills win and the Bengals win, Cinci is #1, Buf #2, KC #3. 

 

Based on the above, assuming the Bills are playing this Sunday, a Bills forfeit for Wk17 is the most logical outcome - unless the NFL is REALLY prepared to mess with the playoff schedule a LOT to play this game. It is not reasonable to try to play Wk 18 Sunday, Wk 17 Thursday, and Playoff wk 1 on Monday... it is a bigger disadvantage than any team gets by the difference in 1-3 seeds.

 

 

 

 

 

The other possibility is for the NFL to change the structure of the Play Offs.

 

Open the Play Offs to eight teams rather than seven, and scrap the bye for the first seed. In the AFC, if/when the Chiefs, Bengals and/or Bills meet, the game/s will be held on a neutral field. That negates much of the first seed advantage and placings can then be decided by win percentage without completing Bills-Bengals.

[Seventeen]

25 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

None of this really matters, but since this thread is discussing football stuff I will post this here. I can't see the Bills beating the Pats this Sunday. Are Fraiser, Dorsey, and McDermott game planning as we speak? Will they hold practice to install the game plan tomorrow? Who's playing slot corner? Who's playing FS? Are all those players that looked shellshocked last night going to be ready to play at full-speed in a game that the Pats will play like a playoff game? IF we play the game, we'll have to play a preseason vanilla O and D with the Pats having everything to play for. I think the Bills go through the motions and get beat and enter the playoffs as the #3 seed. 

 

Maybe, all depends on updates to Damar's condition over the next 24 hours. If they get an update he's off the ventilator and awake, likely they practice Thursday thru Saturday and are ready for the game. 

 

No idea how the secondary would look other than Rhodes could be added to the 53. Patriots passing game is not exactly scary so we should be OK. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Roy Hobbs

[Nitro]

47 minutes ago, Kiva said:

Raiders are not beating KC. The cinci game will need to be finished. 

They can go on winning percentages for seeding and head to head competition.  If you think they are going to delay the playoffs for a week while they play one game, guess again.  

[What a Tuel]

36 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

None of this really matters, but since this thread is discussing football stuff I will post this here. I can't see the Bills beating the Pats this Sunday. Are Fraiser, Dorsey, and McDermott game planning as we speak? Will they hold practice to install the game plan tomorrow? Who's playing slot corner? Who's playing FS? Are all those players that looked shellshocked last night going to be ready to play at full-speed in a game that the Pats will play like a playoff game? IF we play the game, we'll have to play a preseason vanilla O and D with the Pats having everything to play for. I think the Bills go through the motions and get beat and enter the playoffs as the #3 seed. 

 

We've played on less practice. Nothing like this situation but to say practice is 100% necessary to even compete is a stretch given the teams circumstances for several weeks this season.

2 minutes ago, Nitro said:

They can go on winning percentages for seeding and head to head competition.  If you think they are going to delay the playoffs for a week while they play one game, guess again.  

 

League rules don't allow them to just modify playoff qualifying conditions on the fly. They actually say that if the game has impact on other teams then it must be played.

 

There is much more going on than just the seeding for KC, Cinci, Buffalo. 

[Kiva]

8 minutes ago, Nitro said:

They can go on winning percentages for seeding and head to head competition.  If you think they are going to delay the playoffs for a week while they play one game, guess again.  

They game was “delayed” by the league. This indicates that the game will be finished at some point…

[vanhalen26]

Resuming the game would be problematic.  After another weekend of football coming up, surely there will be new injuries that impact availability, and some previously injured players may now be available.  To a lesser extent, new weather conditions will play a role on the game.  And resuming the previous game after the subsequent game has been played just feels odd.  I wonder if anything like that has been done before.  Maybe baseball?

 

Then there is the emotional considerations.  How can you ask these players to return to the field at the exact point where the hit took place with the same down and time on the clock.  That’s PTSD waiting to happen.  
 

I don’t have the answers, but I think resumption doesn’t work.  I’d probably cancel and seed spots 1, 2 and 3 based on win %.

Edited January 4, 2023 by vanhalen26

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Success said:

The game will not be meaningless.  Our game has huge implications for 4 cities hoping to get the 7 seed.

 

This wasn’t the Bills problem at kick off. And it’s not the Bills problem now.

 

This keeps getting mentioned like the Bills owe it to other teams to make the game up.
 

They don’t. 

[Bills fan since 87]

55 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

None of this really matters, but since this thread is discussing football stuff I will post this here. I can't see the Bills beating the Pats this Sunday. Are Fraiser, Dorsey, and McDermott game planning as we speak? Will they hold practice to install the game plan tomorrow? Who's playing slot corner? Who's playing FS? Are all those players that looked shellshocked last night going to be ready to play at full-speed in a game that the Pats will play like a playoff game? IF we play the game, we'll have to play a preseason vanilla O and D with the Pats having everything to play for. I think the Bills go through the motions and get beat and enter the playoffs as the #3 seed. 

 

It does matter, not as much as a million things in life but it does matter.  Vanilla Bills in front of a highly emotional home crowd?  Yeah.  Theyd still roll the Patriots.

[Not Applicable]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

This wasn’t the Bills problem at kick off. And it’s not the Bills problem now.

 

This keeps getting mentioned like the Bills owe it to other teams to make the game up.
 

They don’t. 

The league ,though, owes it to the other teams to create as level a playing field as possible.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

49 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

The other possibility is for the NFL to change the structure of the Play Offs.

 

Open the Play Offs to eight teams rather than seven, and scrap the bye for the first seed. In the AFC, if/when the Chiefs, Bengals and/or Bills meet, the game/s will be held on a neutral field. That negates much of the first seed advantage and placings can then be decided by win percentage without completing Bills-Bengals.

 

I just think the level of disruption that entails is not a precedent the league will want to set. This would require more than a commissioner decision, it would require serious buy-in from ownership. It's true that Damar Hamlin is a major national story right now. But really... most of the people across the country (non-Bills fans) will soon take the approach that however the playoffs are resolved, will not affect his recovery or prognosis. So why should their team (whomever it is) be negatively impacted by this? They (non-Bills fans) can both support him and pray for him and also want to get on with the NFL playoffs regardless of what happens to the Buffalo Bills. 

 

It would have been inhumane to require the Bills and Bengals to complete the game after witnessing his collapse on the field. It does not follow that other players and teams across the league want their plans disrupted for multiple weeks in order to accommodate the Bills or the Bengals. I just don't see the league bending over backwards to accommodate this game. I believe they just haven't announced any resolution because they don't need to and it would look terribly insensitive. Probably from their standpoint the ideal situation is this:

   - Damar regains consciousness before they have to announce any resolution

   - They can cancel the game rather than require a Bills forfeit without any difference in the standings.

 

But if they HAVE to I think they go for a Bills forfeit before they reschedule the entire playoff schedule. In any case I think that they will delay announcing as long as they can, in the hopes that Damar's condition improves. Which is also the right thing to do.

[Andy1]

Bob Costas was on tv tonight and thought the most likely scenario was that the game is never played and playoff seating is done using winning %.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

23 minutes ago, Kiva said:

They game was “delayed” by the league. This indicates that the game will be finished at some point…

 

They can just change it to cancelled or forfeited at any point later. "Postponed" lets them dodge questions while hoping Damar's condition improves. 

 

If Damar regains consciousness and does not have brain damage, the league can then announce whatever they want to do and it will be accepted, because the good outcome would outweigh the inconvenience to football.

 

I don't even want to contemplate other alternatives to that.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Kiva said:

Raiders are not beating KC. The cinci game will need to be finished. 

you should bet your house and retirement on it I guess

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

The league ,though, owes it to the other teams to create as level a playing field as possible.

That isn’t true. The league doesn’t owe any teams anything. No team is shorted. 

Nothing has changed for those teams there are in the same spot they were in 36 hours ago. Every team is in the same exact spot in the standing they were before kick off of a game that wasn’t played.
 

Their standing last week was fair. Nobody is messing with their standings. 
 

I find this argument so weak.
 

Nearly everybody in Buffalo has offered up the L. Nobody cares. 

 

[Kiva]

Just now, NoSaint said:

you should bet your house and retirement on it I guess

I’m in Cali. Sports gambling is illegal. 

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, Andy1 said:

Bob Costas was on tv tonight and thought the most likely scenario was that the game is never played and playoff seating is done using winning %.

The only reason this is wonky is because KC played the Bengals and Bills losing to both. As unique as this situation is, this is even more rare because of the teams it affects right now. 
 

My first choice is to take the L and move on.

 

In any other scenario I don’t understand why KC gets the one seed after losing to both CIN and BUF. 

[NoSaint]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

That isn’t true. The league doesn’t owe any teams anything. No team is shorted. 

Nothing has changed for those teams there are in the same spot they were in 36 hours ago. Every team is in the same exact spot in the standing they were before kick off of a game that wasn’t played.
 

Their standing last week was fair. Nobody is messing with their standings. 
 

I find this argument so weak.
 

Nearly everybody in Buffalo has offered up the L. Nobody cares. 

 

was typing the same thing and got an error. I’ll shorthand it to “call me back when Miami fixes their stadium or allows shade for visitors” if you want to talk to me about the nfl owing fairness to all teams. It’s a standard the league doesn’t believe in, outside of preserving ratings to preserve income. 
 

im cool if they make it up, and cool if you skip it. Nothing about that is unfair… and frankly even if it was it’s not even among the most egregious examples that needs to be fixed. 

[HalftimeAdjustment]

4 minutes ago, Andy1 said:

Bob Costas was on tv tonight and thought the most likely scenario was that the game is never played and playoff seating is done using winning %.

 

So, in that case the possible options would be (assuming the Bills do play in Wk 18):

KC W: 0.823 T: 0.794 L: 0.764

BUF W: 0.812 T:  0.781 L: 0.75

CIN W: 0.75 T: 0.718 L: 0.687 

 

In that case:

 1) Bengals vs Ravens is meaningless (Ravens cannot exceed 0.687 Win%)

 2) Bengals cannot win the #1 seed

 3) Bengals cannot get the #2 seed unless Buffalo loses and they win ... I think they take the tiebreaker on division W/L % but not sure.

 4) Chiefs are in the driver's seat for #1 and only lose it with a loss or tie plus a BUF win.

 

This is OK, it is more balanced between the Bills and Bengals than a forfeit of course, but it is defensible. 

[Buffalo03]

12 minutes ago, Mango said:

The only reason this is wonky is because KC played the Bengals and Bills losing to both. As unique as this situation is, this is even more rare because of the teams it affects right now. 
 

My first choice is to take the L and move on.

 

In any other scenario I don’t understand why KC gets the one seed after losing to both CIN and BUF. 

 

Benjamin Albright mentioned a random number generator. Considered no contest 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Buffalo03

[0017]

I don’t trust some random number generator! That’s weird, why not bring in Vegas and play a round of poker 😃

[transplantbillsfan]

25 minutes ago, Andy1 said:

Bob Costas was on tv tonight and thought the most likely scenario was that the game is never played and playoff seating is done using winning %.

 

If this is the case, I would really like McDermott and the team to forfeit the game on Sunday if KC wins.

 

I'm sure there are internal conversations about this already, but I don't even understand how Buffalo is expected to start practicing tomorrow. I could see players going in and spending the day together praying and talking and laying on couches getting their heads shrinked.

 

But does anyone honestly expect Buffalo to have a normal practice tomorrow?

 

Thinking strictly in terms of the season (because of course we're all still praying for Damar), the league should have figured this all our and notified teams today. Buffalo and Cincinnati are both already at a competitive disadvantage this weekend because they're half-heartedly thinking about their opponents while simultaneously not having a clue about anything else.

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

 

Benjamin Albright mentioned a random number generator. Considered no contest 

 

 

This makes some sense. Especially for the top 3. 
 

It sounds like the league is prepped to let the 7 seed figure itself out without the result from that game. I could be wrong, but it felt that way to me.

 

Here is my idea. We roll a 12 sided dice for KC for each conference game. Whatever number it rolls on is the corresponding game they played against a conference opponent. If it’s a win, they drop that game from their record. If it’s a loss they lose that. 

 

But if they roll the H2H match up with either CIN or BUF they get leap frogged by that team. Automatically. 

[Buffalo03]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

This makes some sense. Especially for the top 3. 
 

It sounds like the league is prepped to let the 7 seed figure itself out without the result from that game. I could be wrong, but it felt that way to me.

 

Here is my idea. We roll a 12 sided dice for KC for each conference game. Whatever number it rolls on is the corresponding game they played against a conference opponent. If it’s a win, they drop that game from their record. If it’s a loss they lose that. 

 

But if they roll the H2H match up with either CIN or BUF they get leap frogged by that team. Automatically. 

I still say push the playoffs back a week and get rid of the bye week before the Super Bowl. It's the only logical solution. After week 18, Bills and Bengals pick up where they left off the following weekend and then playoffs start the week after. I feel like anything else is overthinking it or making it more complicated 

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

This makes some sense. Especially for the top 3. 
 

It sounds like the league is prepped to let the 7 seed figure itself out without the result from that game. I could be wrong, but it felt that way to me.

 

Here is my idea. We roll a 12 sided dice for KC for each conference game. Whatever number it rolls on is the corresponding game they played against a conference opponent. If it’s a win, they drop that game from their record. If it’s a loss they lose that. 

 

But if they roll the H2H match up with either CIN or BUF they get leap frogged by that team. Automatically. 

Haha… hope they check the weight on that dice closely…

I can see after the result the loser saying … “it was best of three wasn’t it?”

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I still say push the playoffs back a week and get rid of the bye week before the Super Bowl. It's the only logical solution. After week 18, Bills and Bengals pick up where they left off the following weekend and then playoffs start the week after. I feel like anything else is overthinking it or making it more complicated 

This is by far my least favorite. Take the loss. Move on. Let the league and the team start to put the trauma behind them. 
 

Reshuffle the whole league, to have them be the only story line in the country. For two teams already in as high seeds. It will be nonstop talk about Hamlin. 
 

If the locker room wants this sure. But it doesn’t “feel” like they do. And my pulse on the city is that they don't want this either. It just provides so little value. 

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Haha… hope they check the weight on that dice closely…

I can see after the result the loser saying … “it was best of three wasn’t it?”

Also, KC has like an 80% chance of losing one of their wins. This definitely favors CIN and BUF. By a wide margin. 

[beebe]

12 minutes ago, Mango said:

This makes some sense. Especially for the top 3. 
 

It sounds like the league is prepped to let the 7 seed figure itself out without the result from that game. I could be wrong, but it felt that way to me.

 

Here is my idea. We roll a 12 sided dice for KC for each conference game. Whatever number it rolls on is the corresponding game they played against a conference opponent. If it’s a win, they drop that game from their record. If it’s a loss they lose that. 

 

But if they roll the H2H match up with either CIN or BUF they get leap frogged by that team. Automatically. 

 

So in other words, the Chiefs have ONE chance. They'd have to roll snake eyes. The second AFC team they played was Colts (2). The Bills (4) and Bengals (8) would be automatic leap frogs. So it would have to roll snake eyes for the Chiefs to secure the 1 seed.

 

The odds of rolling snake eyes is 1 out of 36.

 

With your suggested method, you've now turned the Chiefs' chances of a 1 seed (previously about 50-50 if Bills-Bengals was played to completion and Bills lost) to now a 2.7% chance. Brilliant idea!

[Mango]

1 minute ago, beebe said:

 

So in other words, the Chiefs have ONE chance. They'd have to roll snake eyes. The second AFC team they played was Colts (2). The Bills (4) and Bengals (8) would be automatic leap frogs. So it would have to roll snake eyes for the Chiefs to secure the 1 seed.

 

The odds of rolling snake eyes is 1 out of 36.

 

With your suggested method, you've now turned the Chiefs' chances of a 1 seed (previously about 50-50 if Bills-Bengals was played to completion and Bills lost) to now a 2.7% chance. Brilliant idea!

 

Just tell them if they don’t they’re nothing but a buncha yellow bellied cowards. 

[clearwater cadet]

Since we are only talking about the AFC, if the Bills, Bengals, and Chief win this weekend.  The Bills (9-2) and Chief (9-3) will have the most conference wins (9 each).  Bengals will (8-3) in conference.  The Bills did beat the Chiefs head to head.  So they are the number 1 seed.  Bengals would be # 2 they beat the chief head to head, Chiefs would be #3.  Simple, no need to play any additional games modify playoffs.

[Doc Brown]

In before the lock.

[Bookie Man]

Only one answer to this... Madden sim. 

[chongli]

For some (many?) years during the drought, if you counted only divsion records, like they do in college, the Bills would have been competitive with the Patriots. Either tied with them for the divsion title, or in second place.