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The 4th & 2 playcalling


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1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

And a proper HC would have chosen to go up by 13 points instead of letting the OC have the chance to f*ck it up.

 

 

incorrect

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

And a proper HC would have chosen to go up by 13 points instead of letting the OC have the chance to f*ck it up.

 

 

incorrect

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22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Don’t disagree, but you and I both know that Allen ain’t throwing a swing pass to Duke Freaking Johnson on a 4th down play form the five. Christ, he’s not even in Allen’s range of vision given the way he set up. That’s not a good thing, but it is also true.

 

 

Yes..........in the same way that you and I both knew that they were going to lose that game if they don't score a TD on that drive to stop the avalanche of momentum the Vikings had.      So.......more "probably" than "certainly".   Freaking Duke Johnson isn't a bum.......he's been one of the best receiving backs in the NFL over the last half decade.  

 

The inability to take what's being given is a problem and Allen needs to get past "ain't no freaking way" he is  throwing passes to wide open receivers in front of the coverage.    

 

We can go on forever about the reasons why Allen has lost any semblance of short game but it isn't because he doesn't have receiving options out of the backfield anymore.    Hines and Johnson are much better RB receiving options than Lil' Dummy McKenzie is as an excuse for a slot receiver.     The funniest moment of the game was Lil' Dummy trying to cut back his run to the middle of the field with time running out in regulation and the crowd with collective "gasp and NOOOO!" before he thought better of it and went out of bounds.   :lol:

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23 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Expected him to keep running? Huh? He threw it behind him.

 

Yeah because then he tried to throw it to where Davis stopped, and at the same time Davis started hopping to the right. You can see it perfectly here at 1:00:

 

We're running an offense that requires the QB and the WRs to be on the same page at all times, the same one the Patriots ran under Brady. Throughout their dynasty it was well known that only a few WRs were capable of fitting into the system. Edelman was great in that system not because of elite abilities but because he was always on the same page with Brady. We are NOT seeing that from this offense. Davis doesn't strike me as a cerebral WR, and I don't mean that in a disrespectful way. Ideally we would be sending him on simple vertical routes where he can show off his ability to climb the ladder like he did at UCF. We're instead asking him to read coverages and adjust route angles on the fly. Everyone is thinking too much from the QB all the way down and it's putting us in bad situations.

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4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes..........in the same way that you and I both knew that they were going to lose that game if they don't score a TD on that drive to stop the avalanche of momentum the Vikings had.      So.......more "probably" than "certainly".   Freaking Duke Johnson isn't a bum.......he's been one of the best receiving backs in the NFL over the last half decade.  

 

The inability to take what's being given is a problem and Allen needs to get past "ain't no freaking way" he is  throwing passes to wide open receivers in front of the coverage.    

 

We can go on forever about the reasons why Allen has lost any semblance of short game but it isn't because he doesn't have receiving options out of the backfield anymore.    Hines and Johnson are much better RB receiving options than Lil' Dummy McKenzie is as an excuse for a slot receiver.     The funniest moment of the game was Lil' Dummy trying to cut back his run to the middle of the field with time running out in regulation and the crowd with collective "gasp and NOOOO!" before he thought better of it and went out of bounds.   :lol:

He’s not a bum, no, but he has been targeted precisely zero times in his short career with the Bills, and my point it is that it wasn’t going to start with 4th down play meant to ice the game. Doesn’t mean he shouldn’t have thrown it to him, of course!

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1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

That was Duke Johnson and he had a defender on him and closing fast. It would have probably been a bang-bang play at the first down marker, or Duke would have had to make him miss.

 

He may have even been hit so hard that he doesn’t catch the ball.

 

AED55526-0296-4-F2-F-AC57-FB1520909-A90.

Exactly right. I honestly believe the screen to Duke was the initial design, but Josh saw that the defense had sniffed it out and instead headed to his right. The Vikings were all over the screen the whole game.

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Context matters though.

 

I am usually pro-go-for-it.

 

But in the context of the situation, where you have a QB struggling, and you have a chance to go up 2 touchdowns, I think you take the field goal considering the context of this particular situation.

 

But up until that point in the game, Josh had NOT been struggling. In fact, he had been in a rhythm on that very drive.

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22 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I agree with everything you're saying, but I feel like this problem (Josh and receivers not on same page) was not a problem until the 2nd half of the Green Bay game and it's continued since then.

 

I feel like he was in sync with all receiving options earlier in the season.

 

I think it's the usual, DCs have tape on Dorsey's offense now and they're calling plays to take away what we like to do. Patrick Peterson knew exactly what we were going to do on the last play of OT. He easily undercut Davis because of the angle Davis took and that was all she wrote. And personally I don't think the solution is just Allen checking the ball down more. We can check the ball all the way down to the 10, but does that matter if we can't punch it in? Allen wanted to win the game so he went for the TD throw twice. The first one was dropped, the second one the undercut by a smart DB in part because Davis took a bad angle.

 

I mean let's pretend Allen takes the check down and we end up in 1st and goal from the 10. Does anyone here have confidence in us getting a TD? So let's say we get the FG. Does anyone here have confidence in the defense stopping the Vikings in a 2 minute drill with timeouts from driving down the field for at the very least a FG attempt for the win? I think Allen checking the ball down on that play is a lazy solution with the same ultimate result. The difficult solution is Dorsey finding ways to create easy yards and reads, and creating some kind of identity in the RZ. I don't ever want Allen deciding not to throw an anticipatory throw downfield when his read tells him that's the right throw.

 

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1 hour ago, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

 

 

I am actually tempted to blame the sequence of events on the 3rd down and failed 4th down conversion for the game unraveling. It was the turning point. I disliked the throw on 4th, was against the call/wanted points, but absolutely hated the fact that we didn't run the ball on 3rd down if we were going to go for it on 4th. 

Not a single receiver on that 3rd down played the sticks. It was all out TD. I have been critical of Allen for having guys open and choosing to take a shot at a homerun. This was not one of those times. Unsure if this one was on Dorsey or McKenzie. It looks like McKenzie could have (should have?) run his route shallow. There was nobody there, but McK cut it up field to the end zone instead of across. he basically made his cut right in front of the defender. Had he gone shallow it was a clear first down. Allen went to McKenzie who was in a decent position but not ideal, so I am tempted to say play design was good, execution was bad. 


On 4th it looks like Gabe runs 3 yards and curls back to Allen and waits for a split second. A quick ball and it is a first. No YAC but a first for sure. After he curls, he cuts across the face of the LB towards Diggs to his right who is doing the same, but instead of curling Diggs just cuts across the face of the LB. Both LB's pass of their WR in zone. Allen hesitates again with the throw to Diggs and misses the opportunity. I have to assume that with both Diggs and Davis being covered by LB's and running routes a yard past the sticks, this is the play design. Allen had a narrow window, but I think it was within the initial design of the play. It doesn't get any better than both WR1 and 2 having a chance to make a play in front of the sticks. We've seen this offense execute these type of plays before.

 

Worth noting a quick dump off to Duke is also likely a first. Duke is outside or at the numbers on the 10, turned up field and looking back at Josh while the nearest defender is at the 2. Allen never looks his way. Duke is at the LOS and Josh never looked to his left once. The DB didn't move from the 2 yard line.We didn't need a TD. We needed to get to the 5. A throw there and all Duke needs to do is get 6 feet. 

 

That throw to the endzone never had a chance. It was never going to work. 

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38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah because then he tried to throw it to where Davis stopped, and at the same time Davis started hopping to the right. You can see it perfectly here at 1:00:

 

We're running an offense that requires the QB and the WRs to be on the same page at all times, the same one the Patriots ran under Brady. Throughout their dynasty it was well known that only a few WRs were capable of fitting into the system. Edelman was great in that system not because of elite abilities but because he was always on the same page with Brady. We are NOT seeing that from this offense. Davis doesn't strike me as a cerebral WR, and I don't mean that in a disrespectful way. Ideally we would be sending him on simple vertical routes where he can show off his ability to climb the ladder like he did at UCF. We're instead asking him to read coverages and adjust route angles on the fly. Everyone is thinking too much from the QB all the way down and it's putting us in bad situations.


Gabe and McKenzie are in the same place, that can’t be right. Gabe was a actually wide open 

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1 hour ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

IMG_8944.thumb.jpg.6976735efbce8af03c28fb7a71a68e44.jpg

 

 

He has Davis and McKenzie. He is staring right at them and still didn't throw the ball. I went and renewed my All 22 after the Jets game. It has been a lot of this. I honestly don't know WTF is going on with him, but our offensive execution just seems to be this play over and over and over again. 

 

I am frustrated upset. But also so confused. How can a player so good go back to such an early version of himself. There is something going on. Maybe he is all rattled from the GB hit? Maybe he is pressing too much with the pressure to be great? I have one itch that keeps bringing me back to the fact that he said he didn't do anything this offseason.  Josh is a guy who made so many improvements so quick, there is a scenario where those corrections are not yet permanent and without constant reinforcement there is risk of taking steps backwards. 

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Where is the creative play calling in the red zone.  Don't want any stupid play calls but it seems like when Daboll  was here there was more schemed creative plays -throws to wide open linemen, throw to Josh one time, more motion or even just designed run for Josh.  Still don't know why they didn't try to run Josh for those 2 yards. 

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1 hour ago, Turbo44 said:

Easy to say run, looking back.  Note than on 2nd and 1, a play earlier, singletary was stuffed for no gain, so that may have dissuaded the run option

Agree, Allen had Davis wide open on the 3rd down play. No one questions the play calling if we get a TD there. Sure running could have worked, but we called a play that should have been a TD if not for the execution of the players. 

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Just now, fan_in_tx said:

image.png.b4f03a4594a22ce67fcd6bfada4f2ee3.png

 

Talk about play calling why not audible to an inside run/trap play .. this would have gone for 20 yards  

 

To be honest, the Vikings actually showed a lot of light boxes in the 2nd half. They were daring Dorsey to call a run... and he did on a play with a light box and this was the result...

 

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1 hour ago, Einstein said:


The angle is messing with your eyes. Look at the yard markers. Duke was 4 yards from the 1st down marker. Defender was 3 yards. Defender was closer to the first down marker than Duke was. It would have been very very close. 

 

As I said........the angle isn't messing with my eyes.........I saw it right at the snap in real life and not again since.    I watch the defense as if I was the QB at the snap so I have a better understanding and Johnson was left WIDE OPEN by NFL standards.   Using stills to illustrate doesn't always work.   And "Freaking Duke Johnson" is a career 9.2 yard per reception running back.   That is a crazy high number for a RB with that amount of catches.   He's been borderline "great" at this stuff.   The odds of someone shoe string tackling him for no gain are very, very low.

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31 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

To be honest, the Vikings actually showed a lot of light boxes in the 2nd half. They were daring Dorsey to call a run... and he did on a play with a light box and this was the result...

 

 

Wtaf is Saffold doing?

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30 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

To be honest, the Vikings actually showed a lot of light boxes in the 2nd half. They were daring Dorsey to call a run... and he did on a play with a light box and this was the result...

 

 

 

Yeah you have to be able to run against that box if you are playing downhill.    This RPO style with the RB parallel with the QB and OL not being allowed to get upfield is not ideal for taking advantage of a light box.   Call a run or pass........get in the "I" and execute.........let the OL either block for the run or the pass.........not in-between.

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3 hours ago, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

Going for it was absolutely stupid there.  Take the points.  That decision was the difference in the ballgame.

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1 minute ago, Azucho98 said:

Going for it was absolutely stupid there.  Take the points.  That decision was the difference in the ballgame.

Calling it "absolutely stupid" just isn't a good-faith argument.  It might be very slightly against the odds according to certain calculators, but it was completely reasonable to say "You know what, a 13 point lead would be nice but a 17 point lead is game over -- let's put them to the sword right here, right now."  

 

And there were like 27 different plays and decisions that all had to go a certain way for the game to end the way it did.  It's silly to obsess over the one that was a statistical toss-up at the time.  Come on.

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3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

He is NOT a precision route runner which is what is needed from your slot receiver.  

This.  McKenzie is a WR5 at best.  A gadget guy.  Why they thought he could be a slot WR3 baffles me.  I was ok with letting Beasley go because he was becoming ineffective.  I really wanted a WR drafted in the second round this year.

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1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

He has Davis and McKenzie. He is staring right at them and still didn't throw the ball. I went and renewed my All 22 after the Jets game. It has been a lot of this. I honestly don't know WTF is going on with him, but our offensive execution just seems to be this play over and over and over again. 

 

I am frustrated upset. But also so confused. How can a player so good go back to such an early version of himself. There is something going on. Maybe he is all rattled from the GB hit? Maybe he is pressing too much with the pressure to be great? I have one itch that keeps bringing me back to the fact that he said he didn't do anything this offseason.  Josh is a guy who made so many improvements so quick, there is a scenario where those corrections are not yet permanent and without constant reinforcement there is risk of taking steps backwards. 

I know what you mean, but Allen was lights out for the first six games of the season.  That's not a weird aberration.  He's proven over multiple seasons that he can shred defenses.  He just needs to play within himself, and I don't think he's playing disciplined football right now.  

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7 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

This.  McKenzie is a WR5 at best.  A gadget guy.  Why they thought he could be a slot WR3 baffles me.  I was ok with letting Beasley go because he was becoming ineffective.  I really wanted a WR drafted in the second round this year.

 

It's not as if we're married to the guy or signed him to some lucrative extension.  They signed crowder for a pretty reasonable deal, and drafted Shakir.  Crowder got hurt, so Mckenzie is getting more snaps.  

7 minutes ago, JohnnyBuffalo said:

Wow that looks like if 6 keeps going across the field instead of up it or back he’s wide open.  

 

Not really sure what the playcall is there.  I can't fault a guy for running his route if thats what he's tasked with doing. 

 

My issue is he motions in on the play to show man coverage then as he motions out the snap came before he was fully set so it threw off the timing on it.  I'm fairly certain he's supposed to be behind davis on another slant but they ended up on top of each other because of either the play design or impatience.  

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9 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

It's not as if we're married to the guy or signed him to some lucrative extension.  They signed crowder for a pretty reasonable deal, and drafted Shakir.  Crowder got hurt, so Mckenzie is getting more snaps.  

 

Yeah it wasn't a lucrative extension but Crowder never really competed with McKenzie in training camp.  He got hurt early on and was behind the 8 ball.  McKenzie is a Smurf and has ball control issues and Allen doesn't trust him.

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Thanks for the replays.  Looks like the book on Allen is getting written these past few weeks.  

 

The 2nd and 2 broken play and toss into the ground is why we need to try to run at least a little more.  Why was 26 not in there?   Maybe Allen hangs in there and runs over to his left end.   If the defender stays on Knox, Allen has a run for the sideline, and he picks up the first down.  If the defender leaves Knox then he can get open.  I am surprised that Allen threw it away so quickly and never let anything else develop.  

 

The 3rd and 2 play required Josh to hit Davis in stride and immediately - instead he waited too long.  Knox was getting open in the right corner, would have been a safe play. Allen was locked onto the middle of the field.  

 

The 4th and 2 play was covered the whole way and never a threat.   The D never worried about a run.  Allen was flushed out of the pocket and was contained behind the line of scrimmage.  

 

The one-dimensional offense fails, even with an elite QB.    No runs.   No RPO's.  No play was even designed to get the ball to Diggs, our most reliable weapon. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Thanks for the replays.  Looks like the book on Allen is getting written these past few weeks.  

 

The 2nd and 2 broken play and toss into the ground is why we need to try to run at least a little more.  Why was 26 not in there?   Maybe Allen hangs in there and runs over to his left end.   If the defender stays on Knox, Allen has a run for the sideline, and he picks up the first down.  If the defender leaves Knox then he can get open.  I am surprised that Allen threw it away so quickly and never let anything else develop.  

 

The 3rd and 2 play required Josh to hit Davis in stride and immediately - instead he waited too long.  Knox was getting open in the right corner, would have been a safe play. Allen was locked onto the middle of the field.  

 

The 4th and 2 play was covered the whole way and never a threat.   The D never worried about a run.  Allen was flushed out of the pocket and was contained behind the line of scrimmage.  

 

The one-dimensional offense fails, even with an elite QB.    No runs.   No RPO's.  No play was even designed to get the ball to Diggs, our most reliable weapon. 

 

We didn't even have running backs in the backfield on some of them.  No jet motion, no eye candy, no play action, no sprint outs... its uninspiring to say the least.  

 

Not to mention, there was about 5 yards of space between the 1st and end zone and we didn't seem to try and get it at all.  

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25 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

Going for it was absolutely stupid there.  Take the points.  That decision was the difference in the ballgame.

I thought it was terrible as well. McD always goes on about how he trusts his players but he didn’t trust the D with a 13 point lead with 11 minutes left.  

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55 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Calling it "absolutely stupid" just isn't a good-faith argument.  It might be very slightly against the odds according to certain calculators, but it was completely reasonable to say "You know what, a 13 point lead would be nice but a 17 point lead is game over -- let's put them to the sword right here, right now."  

 

And there were like 27 different plays and decisions that all had to go a certain way for the game to end the way it did.  It's silly to obsess over the one that was a statistical toss-up at the time.  Come on.

Take the points.  They made it easier for the Vikings to come back and ultimately win the game.

 

You are wrong....A 13 point lead there would have resulted in a W.  That last FG drive by Josh ends the game in regulation, we win 33-30.  Hell even if they MADE the missed PAT we still would have won 33-31.

2 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

Take the points.  They made it easier for the Vikings to come back and ultimately win the game.

 

You are wrong....A 13 point lead there would have resulted in a W.  That last FG drive by Josh ends the game in regulation, we win 33-30.  Hell even if they MADE the missed PAT we still would have won 33-31.

 

This is why they call it "Monday morning quarterbacking."  You have the luxury of knowing how the rest of the game played out, so you can make the "correct" decision in hindsight.  It would be easy to draw up equally likely scenarios where the FG costs us the game and we really needed those additional four points, and then you'd be in here busting on McDermott for being too conservative and not going for it.  

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4 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

I agree. Have to look at the All-22 - can't see how close the defender is in that broadcast view. Regardless though - the design of the play was not the issue - there was a play to be had there.

I am also waiting for All-22 but I would slightly expand your points in this thread regardless. I think fans in general (i) love to blame "playcalling" whenever execution sucks and (ii) are extremely results oriented.

 

As @Rock-A-Bye Beasley already posted, going for it vs FG was extremely close decision from analytics point of view, yet people will claim that it was beyond stupid. It was probably slightly wrong based on math and even more so based on what was happening of the field, but nothing significant either way.

 

As for the calls in general - if we run and it fails, people say we should've pass. If we pass, we should've run. If we try sneak and it fails, it should've been shotgun. If we line up in shotgun, it should've been under center and sneak, or run. When we try 3 passes in the RZ in row, people are saying how stupid it was to pass. If we run Singletary on that 2nd down, the very same people (not everybody ofc, nobody needs to take this personal) would be screaming how that was just a wasted down and why didn't we let Josh throw it 3 times. If we do some jet sweep to McKenzie and it works - what a brilliant call. If it fails due to some great individual defensive effort - why is OC getting cute. And so on. Honorable mention to @GunnerBill, who is the only one I noticed, who once a while says that he didn't like a call even if it worked (and vice versa).

 

When Josh hit Gabe Davis from his own EZ on 3&10 with 45y bomb on 98y TD vs Steelers I don't remember anybody on this board complaining why did they try such a dangerous low-percentage play on 3&10 on our own 2 yards. Because it worked. When something doesn't, "playcalling sucks". And same with any coaching decisions.

 

I am not saying coaches are perfect and playcalling is always great. I am just saying that people are way too results oriented and inconsistent in this. Not to mention that most fans (including me, but that's why I don't offer strong opinions on calls) really have no clue what calls/assignments actually were.

Edited by No_Matter_What
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Let me ask this…. How many misdirection plays have you seen this year?

 

Minnesota did the same misdirection play where Cousins (play action, another thing bills don’t do) rolled out slightly to his right and threw back left…..

 

Any trick plays this year? Tennessee won from a trick play yesterday.

 

I just feel like the Bills think they are above being creative. Get creative, get innovative….. you gotta change it up every now and then.

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4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

It's really hard to argue with McD's decisions to go for it on 4th down. Almost always the correct ones. We can not like the result or the playcall, but the decision itself is hard to argue with.

 

 

Well they can't say we are scared or conservative, however I really thought taking 3 would have been the right move. Go up 13 and make them drive the long field twice. I counter punch or another FG and it's over.  This game was beyond frustrating and the probability we lose had to be less than 5% when it was 27-10. Yet we found a way to f'k it up again. 

 

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4 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

image.thumb.png.6e115da71588b669f71d6ae41cff7175.png

 

This is what pisses me off. McKenzie is in on the play and just watches Peterson return it. He made absolutely zero attempt to try and tackle him. Inexcusable.

Oh and this was brutal. I can see McKenzie in doghouse next game. This was hard to watch and it surely won't get unnoticed.

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43 minutes ago, BananaB said:

I thought it was terrible as well. McD always goes on about how he trusts his players but he didn’t trust the D with a 13 point lead with 11 minutes left.  

Would you trust the defense at that point ?

 

Rousseau, White, Elam, Poyer and Hyde all out ... Edmunds didn't play the second half, that's 6 of 11 starters out of the game. They had given up a 70+ yard TD run in the third Q and we had no one who could slow down Jefferson.

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2 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

To be honest, the Vikings actually showed a lot of light boxes in the 2nd half. They were daring Dorsey to call a run... and he did on a play with a light box and this was the result...

 

 

I mentioned this a few times in the game day thread. Calling more run plays does not automatically equal run success. We simply are not a good run blocking team. Calling 10 more run plays is likely to produce 8 more plays of what you posted.

 

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Wtaf is Saffold doing?

 

Saffold loses leverage immediately but i’m far more concerned about Morse & Bates double teaming a d-linemen and STILL losing the rep. That’s horrendous.

 

.

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6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Saffold loses leverage immediately but i’m far more concerned about Morse & Bates double teaming a d-linemen and STILL losing the rep. That’s horrendous.

 

.

 

Morse and Bates sealed the exact gap they were supposed to; Morse was even heading to the second level until he saw the 'backer heading for the wrong gap.

Saffold's brainfart at the snap forced the back out of the designed zero hole that was going to be an easy first down and probably a TD.

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