Bills 7.5 pt favorite over Vikings

[Freddie's Dead]

18 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Totally disagree with this anti-Bills fan negativity.

 

But at least you are here today.  Most of your ilk took off and are nowhere to be seen.

 

The double negative means you're talking about pro-Bills fan positivity....  My boy @Royale with Cheese had the sarcasm font enabled.

[Joe Ferguson]

17 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

This is assuming Allen plays. If he's out, that number will drop by 4-5 points, at least. Vegas knows everything, so hopefully they already know what's up with Josh. If there was a big question mark about him playing, this game would most likely be off the board. 

Obviously they didnt know the Jets would win the last game.😂

[BillsFanSD]

14 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

No Rousseau 

 

As of now no Poyer or Milano 

 

Essentially Vegas sees this D in that situation as trash.  
 

They’re not wrong.  

Relative to what we were hoping for in Week 1, we're missing Poyer, Hyde, Tre, Milano, Oliver, and Groot.  That's half our starting defense and every one of those players is potentially a Pro Bowler.  This isn't the defense that any of us were expecting, and yes it's kind of trash if this is what we have to put out there.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

The double negative means you're talking about pro-Bills fan positivity....  My boy @Royale with Cheese had the sarcasm font enabled.

 

I'm your boy like Blue?

 

If I died, would you sing "Dust in the Wind" at my funeral?

[Freddie's Dead]

22 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm your boy like Blue?

 

If I died, would you sing "Dust in the Wind" at my funeral?

 

[Nextmanup]

At -6 and dropping; will come down more before game time.

 

I'm surprised it's still this high.

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

At -6 and dropping; will come down more before game time.

 

I'm surprised it's still this high.

 

 

Most sports books give people the ability to "cancel" their bet, before the game starts.  

 

Line dropping gradually, is money coming in on Vikes (people either hedging, like said above and/or truly think Minny is within a TD of Bills).  Any indication that Allen is surely out this week, and this line flips to Minny being favored.

[Greg S]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

At -6 and dropping; will come down more before game time.

 

I'm surprised it's still this high.

 

 

 

Probably waiting for an official announcement if Allen plays or not.

[Bubba Gump]

6 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Obviously they didnt know the Jets would win the last game.😂

 

Point spread. Sucks everyone in. They made huge dollars on that game. 

 

[BillsShredder83]

On 11/7/2022 at 2:18 PM, gridirongold said:

Lot of bandwagoners hopping off. Good time to lay it with the Bills.  Buy low. Someone pointed out here before the Jets game Buffalo was a 9.5 point choice. Sharp shops don't have the game available.  Must be wating to be sure Allen isn't dinged. 7 is key . Doubt you'll see it or you won't be fast enough to get 7 before it's bought back to 7.5. Public underdogs aren't very wise investments without a team being superior...example Seattle at Arizona yesterday, books took a bath on that game.

The very nature of the nfl is a back and forth leauge

Where do you find the info on where the sharps are betting?

[ehfeuh57]

glad I got MIN +7.5 before the lines disappeared

[newcam2012]

On 11/7/2022 at 2:03 PM, Amaru523 said:

Also, the Bills are still favorites to win the Super Bowl (+275) according to MGM. The Miami team everyone is so scared of is 9th in SB odds (+2200).

 

This week the Bills are 7 pt favs over the team that are 7th in SB odds, while Fish are 4 pt favs over the team that are 19th.

Time for me to put some money on the Dolphins and Bengals. No way am I laying money on +275 for Buffalo. Those odds suck. Not saying Buffalo won't win it just saying from a betting point of view those odds aren't good. 

[ehfeuh57]

On 11/7/2022 at 2:18 PM, gridirongold said:

Public underdogs aren't very wise investments without a team being superior...example Seattle at Arizona yesterday, books took a bath on that game.

You use a lot of buzz words but do you know what you are talking about?

 

you say "Public underdogs are not a wise investment" then you cite Seattle who was an underdog vs Arizona and won the game outright

 

you have no proof the books took a bath. Ive said this again and again they do not bet on the games and do not like to expose themselves willingly. you would have to come with proof to say otherwise.

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Time for me to put some money on the Dolphins and Bengals. No way am I laying money on +275 for Buffalo. Those odds suck. Not saying Buffalo won't win it just saying from a betting point of view those odds aren't good. 

 

the favorite to win a championship in any sport is generally a bad bet (-EV)

[BillsShredder83]

6 minutes ago, DrDare said:

You use a lot of buzz words but do you know what you are talking about?

 

you say "Public underdogs are not a wise investment" then you cite Seattle who was an underdog vs Arizona and won the game outright

 

you have no proof the books took a bath. Ive said this again and again they do not bet on the games and do not like to expose themselves willingly. you would have to come with proof to say otherwise.

Agreed. I hate that I can't find old splits, but I remember seeing the splits look appetizing on sea/arz.

 

I wanna say on the spread sea had like 30% of tickets and 45% of the money. I'm def not a savvy vet but I've done a lot of homework the last year, enough to know I really liked that pick. Seemed like the sharps $$ was there, and def was on the same side as Vegas as it was under 50% whatever the number was

[Dablitzkrieg]

Down to 5.5

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, DrDare said:

glad I got MIN +7.5 before the lines disappeared

 

 

Fanduel still showing MIN +5.5

[mrags]

On 11/7/2022 at 1:15 PM, Greg S said:

Buffalo plays very well at home. 41-7 over the Titans, 38-3 over the Steelers, 27-17 over the Packers. GB scored a meaningless TD midway thru the 4th to make the score look respectable. I am not surprised its 7.5

That’s what you took out of GB? The only reason they didn’t win that game is they ran out of time. Josh started to look bad and the defense looked like a busted damn 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, DrDare said:

You use a lot of buzz words but do you know what you are talking about?

 

you say "Public underdogs are not a wise investment" then you cite Seattle who was an underdog vs Arizona and won the game outright

 

you have no proof the books took a bath. Ive said this again and again they do not bet on the games and do not like to expose themselves willingly. you would have to come with proof to say otherwise.

 

the favorite to win a championship in any sport is generally a bad bet (-EV)

Not if it wins. 

[ehfeuh57]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Fanduel still showing MIN +5.5

 

right I got 7.5 on Monday morning as soon as i hear about the Injury before it was off all the boards. now its back on at an in-between line of 5.5 which shows some worry but is not damning yet.

[MasterStrategist]

44 minutes ago, DrDare said:

 

right I got 7.5 on Monday morning as soon as i hear about the Injury before it was off all the boards. now its back on at an in-between line of 5.5 which shows some worry but is not damning yet.

To be clear, it didn't come off "all the boards".  In fact, DK might have been one of the few (or only major sportsbook) that took it down for a little while. 

 

Many others kept it up (Fanduel, betmgm, Caesars, to name a few majors).  And the line has gradually dropped as $$$ continues to come in on Minny. 

 

McDermott presser is scheduled for noon tomorrow, will find out then if Josh is possibly going to play this week.  But the line movement to date is not indicative of him sitting, more bettors "guessing"/hedging (as you did).

[1onemangang7]

5 hours ago, DrDare said:

You use a lot of buzz words but do you know what you are talking about?

 

you say "Public underdogs are not a wise investment" then you cite Seattle who was an underdog vs Arizona and won the game outright

 

you have no proof the books took a bath. Ive said this again and again they do not bet on the games and do not like to expose themselves willingly. you would have to come with proof to say otherwise.

 

the favorite to win a championship in any sport is generally a bad 

No man. I don't know what I'm talking about. Not sure what you're talking about? They don't bet on games? Well they take bets. They set numbers. They consider public perception heavily cause they'll have the numbers and the teasers and parlays. Anyone who knows where the line should be was comfortable with the unsexy Geno and Seattle. You hear them in here all the time. I've been laughed at a ton. Most don't know a team like the Jets is pretty good til they see it first....so yes, they are betting.

[1onemangang7]

6 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Agreed. I hate that I can't find old splits, but I remember seeing the splits look appetizing on sea/arz.

 

I wanna say on the spread sea had like 30% of tickets and 45% of the money. I'm def not a savvy vet but I've done a lot of homework the last year, enough to know I really liked that pick. Seemed like the sharps $$ was there, and def was on the same side as Vegas as it was under 50% whatever the number was

Way off

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

To be clear, it didn't come off "all the boards".  In fact, DK might have been one of the few (or only major sportsbook) that took it down for a little while. 

 

Many others kept it up (Fanduel, betmgm, Caesars, to name a few majors).  And the line has gradually dropped as $$$ continues to come in on Minny. 

 

McDermott presser is scheduled for noon tomorrow, will find out then if Josh is possibly going to play this week.  But the line movement to date is not indicative of him sitting, more bettors "guessing"/hedging (as you did).

The move to 7.5 could only be sharp money either real or steam.  Now under the key number of 7 though ithink it's indicative of Allen. Or you'll see a whole lot of buyback .. 

[1onemangang7]

Halftime numbers at draftkings are off by sometimes several points. Go beat those and they'll limit you in a hurry. So yes they bet. Taking bets is betting. 

[1onemangang7]

31 minutes ago, gridirongold said:

Way off

The move to 7.5 could only be sharp money either real or steam.  Now under the key number of 7 though ithink it's indicative of Allen. Or you'll see a whole lot of buyback .. 

I haven't ran mine yet but as of the Jets game I had buffalo a 9.8 vs minny a .3 so that'd be 9.5 on a neutral field. I'll gladly lay it at home if the kid thinks he's fine

[billsintaiwan]

5.5 on my site. Does not bode well for Allen starting.

[mannc]

41 minutes ago, billsintaiwan said:

5.5 on my site. Does not bode well for Allen starting.

Seems like they’re factoring in about a 50 percent chance that Allen starts.  -7.5 with him starting…probably -3 or -2.5 if he sits. I’m kinda surprised it’s not off the board entirely.

Edited November 9, 2022 by mannc

[Dablitzkrieg]

Down to 5

[Dablitzkrieg]

Down to 4

[YoloinOhio]

Hopefully we are the underdogs by game time 🤞

[Gugny]

Fan Duel down to -3.5

 

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl

 

[Warriorspikes51]

the line is going down because everyone is hammering the Vikings

[Alphadawg7]

On 11/7/2022 at 10:11 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I am a but surprised it is that much.   The Jets Loss might be good for them, cant take anyone lightly anymore and certainly not the Vikings.

 

Saying we can't take anyone lightly anymore (implying they took the Jets lightly) after a loss is a pet peeve of mine.  Just because we lost a game doesn't mean McD, Frazier, and the team came in taking anyone lightly.  

 

Jets are 6-3 on the back of great defense and good ground game and a good coaching staff with a stout defensive background.  Not like we lost to a bottom feeder team like Colts or Houston.  

 

This was a tough divisional rival, I have no doubt they took this game very seriously even though it didn't go our way.  

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Hopefully we are the underdogs by game time 🤞

Hopefully not because that'll signal josh is out

[BuffaloRebound]

Unfortunately the smart money is to bet the Vikings.  Even if Josh plays, the defense has too many guys injured/sitting out.  Without Poyer, Milano, and White, we might have the most inexperienced and worst back 7 in football.  

[Bruffalo]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Unfortunately the smart money is to bet the Vikings.  Even if Josh plays, the defense has too many guys injured/sitting out.  Without Poyer, Milano, and White, we might have the most inexperienced and worst back 7 in football.  

You must not be watching a lot of other games then.  It's also very possible we have Poyer, Milano, and White in the starting line up. I'm not sure I'm liking your "smart money". 

[BuffaloRebound]

 

13 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

You must not be watching a lot of other games then.  It's also very possible we have Poyer, Milano, and White in the starting line up. I'm not sure I'm liking your "smart money". 

 

You think we stand a chance with Hamlin, #4 Johnson, Bernard, and whatever rookie we start opposite Jackson against Jefferson, Thielen, Hockenson, Dalvin Cook and Cousins? 

And now Edmunds is on the injury report.  Here’s a question many people won’t like… why should Edmunds in a contract year play hurt when guys who already got paid like Milano and White are sitting out? 

Edited November 9, 2022 by BuffaloRebound

[NewEra]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Unfortunately the smart money is to bet the Vikings.  Even if Josh plays, the defense has too many guys injured/sitting out.  Without Poyer, Milano, and White, we might have the most inexperienced and worst back 7 in football.  

Are they out?

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

 

You think we stand a chance with Hamlin, #4 Jefferson, Bernard, and whatever rookie we start opposite Jackson against Jefferson, Thielen, Hockenson, Dalvin Cook and Cousins? 

And now Edmunds is on the injury report.  Here’s a question many people won’t like… why should Edmunds in a contract year play hurt when guys who already got paid like Milano and White are sitting out? 

 

Yes because we've been injured all year and are 6-2.  

[Bruffalo]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

 

You think we stand a chance with Hamlin, #4 Jefferson, Bernard, and whatever rookie we start opposite Jackson against Jefferson, Thielen, Hockenson, Dalvin Cook and Cousins? 

And now Edmunds is on the injury report.  Here’s a question many people won’t like… why should Edmunds in a contract year play hurt when guys who already got paid like Milano and White are sitting out? 

None of those players are officially rule out for Sunday, and most of them were day to day last week, so that kind of dulls the edge you're spitting out there frankly.

 

To address your first question: Yes.  I think they stand a chance because the Bills are a well coached team with a scheme that is exceptionally friendly to DBs. We also have one of the top edge rushers in the game in Von Miller and a solid interior line.  We'll be going against one of the least mobile QBs in football, so pressure will be important, but to say the Bills are the worst defense in the league because they're missing pieces is laughable. 

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

None of those players are officially rule out for Sunday, and most of them were day to day last week, so that kind of dulls the edge you're spitting out there frankly.

 

To address your first question: Yes.  I think they stand a chance because the Bills are a well coached team with a scheme that is exceptionally friendly to DBs. We also have one of the top edge rushers in the game in Von Miller and a solid interior line.  We'll be going against one of the least mobile QBs in football, so pressure will be important, but to say the Bills are the worst defense in the league because they're missing pieces is laughable. 

I said worst back 7 not defense.  We still have a good front 4 but the Jets weak offense attacked our backups in the back 7, especially #4 Johnson and Bernard.  The Vikings offense is much better than the Jets.