Two ends of the spectrum. Bills have the NFL's worst run blocking but the best pass rushing

[RyanC883]

56 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

I'm still willing to give the oline/rushing game the benefit of the doubt because of the quality of the defensive lines we've played thus far, especially LA/TEN/MIA who all have top 10 DT studs in their lineup.

 

But I think at some point you have to prove you can match up with a physical dline and win your matchups consistently because that's what true SB contenders do.

 

This is my biggest concern with KC right now and why I see them as the best team in the AFC/NFL. Their oline is ridiculously good and very young which is scary given the long term outlook. The fact the Bills and just about every other team missed on Creed Humphrey is a big price to pay putting him in front of a QB like Mahomes. Their Dline is also going to be an issue as long as Chris Jones is healthy and in the lineup.

 

missing on humphry, in an offseason when we had a need at OL, to take a flyer on a non-impactful DE was ridiculous.  

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

You can definitely find some involving Saquon Barkley 

 

?? WTF?  Read more carefully dude.  Same holes = our OL and downfield blocking.

Nope, can't do that one with Barkley either.  What's his name proposing we trade for him (which ain't gonna happen) not withstanding.

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

A lot of those yards are by Allen on scrambles tho, not the RB's, so it paints a false picture.

 

This should help paint a better picture...Bills are dead last in Adjusted Line Yards, which is explained below: 

 

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY): Statistic that attempts to, even to a small extent, separate the ability of a running back from the ability of the offensive line. Adjusted Line Yards begin as a measure of average rushing yards per play by running backs only, adjusted in the following way:

0-4 yards: 100% strength

5-10 yards: 50% strength

11+ yards: not included

runs for a loss: 120% strength

Each play is also adjusted based on game situation as well as quality of opponents faced. Adjusted Line Yards can be listed as total or broken down by direction to attempt to isolate ability of specific linemen.

 

I understand Josh's runs inflate the rush yards, but so do Lamar's in Baltimore.   The adjusted line yards stat is exactly the type of stat I am talking about.   You could pull stats like this all day to form a narrative but at the end of the day the Bills are a successful offense, adjusted line yards or not.   Its like the Buddy Nix thing, "Dont tell me about the labor pains, just show me the baby."  I dont care how the Bills win, i just care that they win.  

 

The depth of analytics has very little to do with the teams overall record and more to do with bored fans and pundits who have an overwhelming need for content from Monday-Saturday.  

Edited October 4, 2022 by thenorthremembers

[FilthyBeast]

19 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

missing on humphry, in an offseason when we had a need at OL, to take a flyer on a non-impactful DE was ridiculous.  

 

Basham has definitely looked good so far this year, but it's hard to see him being anything more than a rotational guy in the near term as long as Groot and Miller are healthy and on this roster.

 

But yeah I'd still trade him in a heartbeat for Humprhey if we could go back to last years draft. This dude is a flat out stud and best center in the league in just his 2nd year. And sucks that he'll be snapping the ball to a QB like Mahomes for the next 10 - 15 years.

[Boatdrinks]

17 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The offense is successful for one reason only. Josh Allen is a freak. His supporting cast is meh… and disagree with your FA pass blocking OL point. Saffold and Quessenberry were better in the running game than anything else. Saffold can’t seem to do either adequately at this point. 

Perhaps those OL are better at the run game ( doesn’t mean they can’t pass protect though) but since Beane arrived it’s been an organizational m.o to fill in the OL with FA. You’re picking nits. Josh makes the offense work to be sure, but they clearly have different ideas about team building strategy than you do. They play in the AFC with the Chiefs and couldn’t get Mahomes off the field enough times in the game that ended their 2021 season. That’s probably a big reason they made the offseason moves they did. We’ll see if it pays off or not. 

[Big Turk]

 

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The offense is successful for one reason only. Josh Allen is a freak. His supporting cast is meh… and disagree with your FA pass blocking OL point. Saffold and Quessenberry were better in the running game than anything else. Saffold can’t seem to do either adequately at this point. 

 

I find it near impossible to have 3 of the top 15 offenses by metrics in modern NFL history 3 straight years with this being the case.

 

Clearly that simply just isn't true.

 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577286810094354432?s=20&t=NVDT5v2gGHtwN6bspxWIJg

 

 

FYI anyone that can tell me why Twitter embeds the post half the time but not the other half would be appreciated and even more appreciated as to how to fix it.

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Big Turk

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I find it near impossible to have 3 of the top 15 offenses by metrics in modern NFL history 3 straight years with this being the case.

 

Clearly that simply just isn't true.

 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577286810094354432

Yep.  If its only because of Allen then he’s the greatest player in the history of the NFL and there’s not anyone even a close second.

 

Our roster top to bottom is top 3 in the NFL.  

[Simon Says]

7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

This is surprising after all the additions in the off-season to the poor offensive line from a season ago. 😅

 

Josh makes it work because he’s a freak at the QB position.

Saffold is the only new STARTER and so far is underwhelming. 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

The Bills run blocking is dreadful - yes they were the walking and dehydrated wounded in Miami but still - that graphic shows how bad they are.

The Bills have had a bottom 10 ranked Run blocking OL for 3 years now.  Has Kromer had much of an impact?  Hard to say. I like the fact that Dorsey has dialed up the dump offs to Devin, etc.  But there's going to come a time in a close playoff game where someone other than qb1 is going to have to get you a first on 3rd & 3. Teams will continue blitzing and teeing off on Josh. This is not sustainable, unless you want Josh's career to end in his early 30's.  

[Starr Almighty]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

A lot of those yards are by Allen on scrambles tho, not the RB's, so it paints a false picture.

 

This should help paint a better picture...Bills are dead last in Adjusted Line Yards, which is explained below: 

 

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY): Statistic that attempts to, even to a small extent, separate the ability of a running back from the ability of the offensive line. Adjusted Line Yards begin as a measure of average rushing yards per play by running backs only, adjusted in the following way:

0-4 yards: 100% strength

5-10 yards: 50% strength

11+ yards: not included

runs for a loss: 120% strength

Each play is also adjusted based on game situation as well as quality of opponents faced. Adjusted Line Yards can be listed as total or broken down by direction to attempt to isolate ability of specific linemen.

 

You know what's scary about this. The Rams are ahead of the Bills and they can barely run for 1/2 an inch

[LabattBlue]

What happened to the magic that Kromer was going to bring to the OL this season?

[1onemangang7]

Look at the poor run blocking 🤡

[HOUSE]

3-1 baby

[JohninMinn.]

Amazing how I'm the only one that knows Dirty is afraid of open field. His  lack of speed would be exposed. Start Cook and watch the OL improve immediately.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

Perhaps those OL are better at the run game ( doesn’t mean they can’t pass protect though) but since Beane arrived it’s been an organizational m.o to fill in the OL with FA. You’re picking nits. Josh makes the offense work to be sure, but they clearly have different ideas about team building strategy than you do. They play in the AFC with the Chiefs and couldn’t get Mahomes off the field enough times in the game that ended their 2021 season. That’s probably a big reason they made the offseason moves they did. We’ll see if it pays off or not. 

 

 

Quessenberry literally lead all NFL offensive tackles in sacks allowed last season.

 

He and Saffold were good run blockers and terrible pass blockers.     After they signed such one-dimensional OL I  thought we were going to see more of Josh under center and the OL getting a chance to tee off on DL as they ran traditional play action.     Running spread out of the shotgun with this inferior pass blocking OL personnel is a recipe for the kind of frantic, disjointed football they are playing on offense.   

[Big Blitz]

No way in heck is the Broncos run blocking that decent

 

I've watched most of their games - abysmal doesn't begin to even describe how bad.  

 

 

The Bills have played 3 great run defenses - Miami, Rams, Ravens.  

 

Is this quantified in the stats?  Quality of opponent

[TailgateChef]

I've said for 2 consecutive drafts now that a 2nd or 3rd round guard could transform this line.  I think Beane's terrified to draft a guard after the whiff on Cody Ford though.  Joe Marino had me SOLD on Dylan Parham this past draft.

[1ManRaid]

This is why I continue to roll my eyes at the people crying for new RBs.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The Bills have had a bottom 10 ranked Run blocking OL for 3 years now.  Has Kromer had much of an impact?  Hard to say. I like the fact that Dorsey has dialed up the dump offs to Devin, etc.  But there's going to come a time in a close playoff game where someone other than qb1 is going to have to get you a first on 3rd & 3. Teams will continue blitzing and teeing off on Josh. This is not sustainable, unless you want Josh's career to end in his early 30's.  

They have had zero continuity on the OL since camp opened.  So many missed time in camp, the presumed starters hardly played preseason, injurie during first 4 games have also prevented getting their game together.  That being said, I don’t think they will ever be a top half of the league run blocking unit with the personnel they currently have.

[MJS]

This one is cool:

 

 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

How does this even make sense? 
 

I didn’t say they are the worst supporting cast in the league. Their offensive line is below average and their Playmakers outside of Diggs are inconsistent at best. How does that makes Josh the greatest player to ever play the game? 
 

He’s arguably the best QB in the game today who does it all. 

 

Because the metrics show the Bills are fielding the 3rd best offense since 1970 this year and fielded the 15th best last year and 10th best in 2021.

 

That would be very very hard to do without a good to very good supporting cast at minimum

 

[LABILLBACKER]

21 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

They have had zero continuity on the OL since camp opened.  So many missed time in camp, the presumed starters hardly played preseason, injurie during first 4 games have also prevented getting their game together.  That being said, I don’t think they will ever be a top half of the league run blocking unit with the personnel they currently have.

The only moment that our run game improved late last season was when Dabs decided to pull his guards & tackles on D gap outside runs. Dorsey so far has not pulled his OL....yet.  Runs up the middle stand no chance.

[Royale with Cheese]

19 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

How does this even make sense? 
 

I didn’t say they are the worst supporting cast in the league. Their offensive line is below average and their Playmakers outside of Diggs are inconsistent at best. How does that makes Josh the greatest player to ever play the game? 
 

He’s arguably the best QB in the game today who does it all. 
 

Top to bottom defensively they are top 3…. Probably best in the league… offensively Josh is what makes them tick, and the reason they are a top 5 unit. 

Because you’ve stated over and over and over and over again that our offense is good for ONLY ONE reason.  

[Success]

The line was terrible for awhile last season - then it wasn't.

 

New coach, some new players - and guys have been out for a game or 2.  I think they'll gel & become more of a strength.

 

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, Success said:

The line was terrible for awhile last season - then it wasn't.

 

New coach, some new players - and guys have been out for a game or 2.  I think they'll gel & become more of a strength.

 

 

Wow, I was prepared to just post my thoughts without having a post to reference.  Thanks for that.

 

I refuse to believe the entire OL is incapable of becoming a capable run blocking group.

Once again, I will repeat that I speculate that the new OC has spent the majority of time working the passing game.

I also have commented that the Steeler game is a perfect opportunity to put together some sort of running plan.

 

The OL won't become a capable run line without the effort being put forth.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I agree the roster is top 3 in the league…. But it is a defensive top heavy roster with a freakishly athletic QB and arguably the best one in the league…. The supporting cast around him outside of Diggs is average to below average IMO. 

 

 

McDermott once said WR was their fastball.    One boo-boo foot and it became their fifth pitch.     

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

This one is cool:

 

 

 

My takeaway from these charts is that "series conversion rate" is a poor way to rank offenses and defenses. It seemingly rewards offenses that dink and dunk their way down the field whether they get in the end zone or not, and punishes defenses that bend but don't break.

 

DVOA is my favorite statistic but I will say it's still way too early to make sweeping judgments about supposed trends. Even analytics people recognize this - DVOA doesn't start fully adjusting for opponent until after week 10. We just finished the extended preseason portion of the regular season. The team that will eventually win the Super Bowl is not playing their best football right now. Trends will change and teams will evolve.

 

50% of our games have been in less than ideal conditions (in more ways than one), and there's not a ton of meaningful data to be mined from such a small sample size in even the best of statistical conditions. The Bills team that blew out the Rams and Titans and mostly scored at will against them is still there. A series of attrition and poor weather in our last two games has brought us down to earth somewhat. I don't see a long-term trend there - I see two separate sample sizes in entirely different contexts with predictably different results.

[LewPort71]

Ends of spectrum

The Bills have scored the 4th most points while allowing the second fewest.

Meanwhile, the Lions have scored the most and allowed the most.

 

I'd take 3--1  over 1--3  any day.