Jim Kubiak Analysis in BN

[Casey D]

Behind a paywall, but it is an amazing read on the game and the adversity the Bills and Allen almost overcame. 

 

The gist of it is that the entire game plan went out the window due to injuries and heat exhaustion.  Lots of plays they would have liked to call could not be used. Execution was all effed up because the guys on the field rarely play together.  Despite all that, Allen still got them within a win, and six key mistakes-- anyone of which went differently likely would have ended the game with a W-- cost them.  That does not do the article justice, but there it is.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Casey D

[eball]

No, I am certain that McD's terrible coaching cost the Bills the win.  I read it on this very forum.

 

[H2o]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

No, I am certain that McD's terrible coaching cost the Bills the win.  I read it on this very forum.

 

No, this one was not all on McDermott. It would have been nice to see him challenge the Gabe Davis reception that should have been a TD though. Just saying. 

[Beast]

Just now, H2o said:

No, this one was not all on McDermott. It would have been nice to see him challenge the Gabe Davis reception that should have been a TD though. Just saying. 

 

I disagree. That would have been upheld. I would have been pissed if they challenged that.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

Behind a paywall, but it is an amazing read on the game and the adversity the Bills and Allen almost overcame. 

 

The gist of it is that the entire game plan went out the window due to injuries and heat exhaustion.  Lots of plays they would have like to call could not be used. Execution was all effed up because the guys on the field rarely play together.  Despite all that, Allen still got them within a win, and six key mistakes-- anyone of which went differently likely would have ended the game with a W-- cost them.  That does not do the article justice, but there it is.

 

Kumerow going out early was big i think.  Good run blocking WR, and the depth behind diggs and davis.  Davis played the entire game because he didn't cramp - but Diggs and Mckenzie both did.  Diggs out means mckenzie or crowder lining up in his spots.  Cook, Morris, Gilliam, all likely stepped in at times.  Not to mention the patchwork unit on the offensive line.  

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

 

I disagree. That would have been upheld. I would have been pissed if they challenged that.

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

[boyst]

The most interesting point of advanced knowledge is when we lost Van Rotten and how it changed our gameplan.

 

Even with Van Rotten it was a bad situation.

 

Josh is best under center. Always has been. Van Roten was having several issues under center with Josh and it delayed Josh. Then when Van Roten went out we had to go to shotgun. 

 

No team spends much time on their backup Center. And old acquaintance of mine was a backup Center for several years and seldom got to practice with the starters. Relegated to scout team and the backup. And every QB likes the ball a certain way - a half inch off can be crucial. 

[uninja]

The last couple of drives Allen was pressing. He has a tendency to get like that when we're down and the clock is ticking. You were starting to see the more erratic, sugar-high, Josh. He had a handful of risky throws that by all accounts should have been intercepted.

 

I'm going to chalk it up to mental and physical exhaustion and having to play with a completely different cast of players that he's normally used to playing with.

[uninja]

10 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Kumerow going out early was big i think.  Good run blocking WR, and the depth behind diggs and davis.  Davis played the entire game because he didn't cramp - but Diggs and Mckenzie both did.  Diggs out means mckenzie or crowder lining up in his spots.  Cook, Morris, Gilliam, all likely stepped in at times.  Not to mention the patchwork unit on the offensive line.  

 

I think Kumerow going out changed a lot of the work they did during the week to set up blocking schemes/plays for the run game. I think him going out made running a lot of run plays complicated and/or impossible, with the right side of the line out and using 2nd and 3rd string centers further complicating things.

[Einstein]

17 minutes ago, Beast said:

 

I disagree. That would have been upheld. I would have been pissed if they challenged that.

 

Why?

 

That was during a 15+ play drive near the endzone. The offense was so overheated that there were injury stoppages due to players needing to take a knee on the field. 

 

I argue that it would have been the PERFECT time to challenge a call. Worst case scenario you lose the challenge but get an extra long timeout for your tired and overheated offense to rest and get ready for a push into the endzone. Challenging that call would have been strategic and smart.

 

Instead our offense that was having trouble standing up floundered and couldn’t get into the endzone.

 

You should be more upset that he called timeout on a PUNT and another timeout on a random first down closer to midfield the very next drive.

[4merper4mer]

14 minutes ago, H2o said:

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

Zero percent chance that got reversed.  Zero.  There was no football move.  If you’re going to challenge that you might as well challenge the missed FG saying it actually went through.  Equal chance at reversal.  Zero.

[uninja]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Why?

 

That was during a 15+ play drive near the endzone. The offense was so overheated that there were injury stoppages due to players needing to take a knee on the field. 

 

I argue that it would have been the PERFECT time to challenge a call. Worst case scenario you lose the challenge but get an extra long timeout for your tired and overheated offense to rest and get ready for a push into the endzone. Challenging that call would have been strategic and smart.

 

Instead our offense that was having trouble standing up floundered and couldn’t get into the endzone.

 

You should be more upset that he called timeout on a PUNT and another timeout on a random first down closer to midfield the very next drive.

 

I would have also challenged that ruling, if only to cause a 2-3 minute stoppage in play to give my guys a rest. Timeouts take 30 seconds, challenges take a couple of minutes. Even if you lose the challenge the result is the same, you end up using a timeout.

[RiotAct]

the potential game-winning field goal would have been from 50ish yards, correct?   Far from a gimme.

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, H2o said:

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

It was similar to the Lee Evans play in the AFC title game vs New England about ten years ago or so. You have to complete the play, there is no move to make in the end zone . He got lazy and let the DB swat the ball from his hands. Have to be more careful on those plays. I believe the call would have been allowed to stand. 

[uninja]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

Zero percent chance that got reversed.  Zero.  There was no football move.  If you’re going to challenge that you might as well challenge the missed FG saying it actually went through.  Equal chance at reversal.  Zero.

 

The reversal wasn't the point, the point would have been to cause a stoppage in play to give players a rest period longer than a standard timeout.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, uninja said:

 

I think Kumerow going out changed a lot of the work they did during the week to set up blocking schemes/plays for the run game. I think him going out made running a lot of run plays complicated and/or impossible, with the right side of the line out and using 2nd and 3rd string centers further complicating things.

 

He had back to back catches on one drive too.  I think he was there to really keep diggs fresh to make it harder on howard and it just never worked out that way.  

[4merper4mer]

Just now, uninja said:

 

The reversal wasn't the point, the point would have been to cause a stoppage in play to give players a rest period longer than a standard timeout.

Read the post to which I replied.

[Casey D]

5 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the potential game-winning field goal would have been from 50ish yards, correct?   Far from a gimme.

58-60 yards

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Zero percent chance that got reversed.  Zero.  There was no football move.  If you’re going to challenge that you might as well challenge the missed FG saying it actually went through.  Equal chance at reversal.  Zero.

 

I don’t agree with this. How many TD’s (in the endzone) do you see a football move happen? How many jukes, etc happen after catching in the endzone?

 

People will say “it’s the time that matters”. Except it’s often not. Watch this clip below. Lamb catches the ball and refs signal TD nearly immediately. THEY ARENT EVEN LOOKING AT HIM ON THE GROUND to see if he dropped it.

 

Just 2 feet were in, TD.

 

 

[Ralonzo]

2 hours ago, Casey D said:

Behind a paywall, but it is an amazing read on the game and the adversity the Bills and Allen almost overcame. 

 

The gist of it is that the entire game plan went out the window due to injuries and heat exhaustion.  Lots of plays they would have like to call could not be used. Execution was all effed up because the guys on the field rarely play together.  Despite all that, Allen still got them within a win, and six key mistakes-- anyone of which went differently likely would have ended the game with a W-- cost them.  That does not do the article justice, but there it is.

 

That's the game I saw. Apparently everyone else saw the Dolphins totally dominate and crush the Bills to the point where they are the new #1 in "power rankings."

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

No, this one was not all on McDermott. It would have been nice to see him challenge the Gabe Davis reception that should have been a TD though. Just saying. 

It'd be nice to live in a reality where he wasted a timeout there and we were complaining about that stupid challenge costing us the time for a last second FG.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

No, this one was not all on McDermott. It would have been nice to see him challenge the Gabe Davis reception that should have been a TD though. Just saying. 

The play would not have been reversed. They would have let it stand. I'm pretty certain of that.

[uninja]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

It'd be nice to live in a reality where he wasted a timeout there and we were complaining about that stupid challenge costing us the time for a last second FG.

 

Honestly that game was just a cosmic comedy or errors. Like that weird cursed Jags game from last year where everything that could have gone wrong, did. I could think of at least a dozen moments where if something every so slightly differently had happened, the Bills win.

[Tanoros]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

No, this one was not all on McDermott. It would have been nice to see him challenge the Gabe Davis reception that should have been a TD though. Just saying. 

It didn’t look like a TD to me, especially after the replay. Besides being a Bills fan, I have Gabe in two fantasy leagues, I WANTED that td, but it as a good play by the db to knock the ball out. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

 

I was more shocked at how the Fins didn't commit a DPI, defensive hold or illegal contact during any of the 63 passing snaps the Bills had, which was probably more like 67 factoring in Allen scrambles.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[Donuts and Doritos]

Might have been helpful to have another receiving option like Shakir or Hodgins available. Of course there was no way to know pregame the injury/heat issues they ran into. 

[Mikie's Bills]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

 

I disagree. That would have been upheld. I would have been pissed if they challenged that.

Everytime I see something similar to this it reminds me of a TD pass Trent Edwards threw to Michael Gaines (maybe it was his first NFL TD?). Gaines catches it and then it's immediately knocked out of his hands. Maybe they've changed the rules since then, but if they didn't I can definitely see the Davis non TD being overturned.

 

First play in this video is what I'm referring to:

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

On to Baltimore.

[Mikie's Bills]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

Do you need to make a "football move" when you catch a ball in the endzone? 

[TheBrownBear]

2 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

That's the game I saw. Apparently everyone else saw the Dolphins totally dominate and crush the Bills to the point where they are the new #1 in "power rankings."

Kudos to the Dolphins.  They squeaked out a 2 point home win against a ridiculously depleted Bills team through some key plays and a ton of luck.  To the winner go the spoils, but anyone who actually believes that the Phins are the best team in the league or somehow better than Buffalo are delusional.  On a neutral field with neutral conditions and a halfway healthy roster, the Bills win by 2 touchdowns (if not more).

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, eball said:

No, I am certain that McD's terrible coaching cost the Bills the win.  I read it on this very forum.

 

 

No crap Einstein! (I may have put those words in wrong order)

[TheBrownBear]

16 minutes ago, Mikie's Bills said:

Do you need to make a "football move" when you catch a ball in the endzone? 

Would love to hear a take on that play from one of the actual rules officials.  It was definitely a close call.  I wonder if it had been called a touchdown if it would have withstood a Dolphins challenge.  In super slow motion it looks like he secures the ball and "completes the catch", but in real time it looked like a bang-bang play where the ball pops free right near the end of completing the catch.  I just don't think it was ever going to be overturned. 

[appoo]

The more I think about that game, the more I think it's a testament to the roster build, McDermott and staff's ball knowledge, and Josh Allen that this game wasn't a 3 score blowout. 

 

You know how in political forecasting we have something called the fundamentals? Which is to say the inherent advantage for one party over the other based on economy, who's in powers, demographics, etc - before you ever get into candidate quality. 

 

Well in this game, fundamentals advantages the Dolphins by 3 TDs

1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

Would love to hear a take on that play from one of the actual rules officials.  It was definitely a close call.  I wonder if it had been called a touchdown if it would have withstood a Dolphins challenge.  In super slow motion it looks like he secures the ball and "completes the catch", but in real time it looked like a bang-bang play where the ball pops free right near the end of completing the catch.  I just don't think it was ever going to be overturned. 

 

He never completed the catch. That wouldn't have been ruled a fumble if it happened in midfield

Edited September 27, 2022 by appoo

[UKBillFan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I was more shocked at how the Fins didn't commit a DPI, defensive hold or illegal contact during any of the 63 passing snaps the Bills had, which was probably more like 67 factoring in Allen scrambles.

 

Yes, that's pretty astounding. No DPI or Holding on 63 passing plays? Remarkable. Would love to know the record of passes without any defensive penalties. Of course, I'm sure it was all above board and the Dolphins didn't get away with anything...

[TheBrownBear]

2 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Yes, that's pretty astounding. No DPI or Holding on 63 passing plays? Remarkable. Would love to know the record of passes without any defensive penalties. Of course, I'm sure it was all above board and the Dolphins didn't get away with anything...

It was an old school "let 'em play" type of game, which explains a clearly concussed quarterback playing an entire half of football.  Well, it was clearly "let 'em play" until there was about 18 seconds left on the clock.

[appoo]

 

This game shouldn't have been played

[TheBrownBear]

12 minutes ago, appoo said:

 

This game shouldn't have been played

More proof that the team (and us fans) just need to flush this game and forget about it.  

[appoo]

Just now, TheBrownBear said:

More proof that the team (and us fans) just need to flush this game and forget about it.  

Yup, I just looked up the dew point for Sunday and it was a wildly high 75-78. Like relatively speakiung that like playing a football game in the tropical rain forest, on a hot day, whilst wearing a wet heated blanket

[TheBrownBear]

1 minute ago, appoo said:

Yup, I just looked up the dew point for Sunday and it was a wildly high 75-78. Like relatively speakiung that like playing a football game in the tropical rain forest, on a hot day, whilst wearing a wet heated blanket

Yeah, that's brutal.  I remember the first time experiencing heat like that when I was 18 and on a senior trip to Cancun in early July.  We stepped off the plane onto the tarmac and I was gasping for air.  I actually thought I might suffocate and wondered how I was going to survive an entire week down there.  Turns out you can pull it off with ocean water and tequila.

[mannc]

3 hours ago, RiotAct said:

the potential game-winning field goal would have been from 50ish yards, correct?   Far from a gimme.

65 yards….highly unlikely