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Locked on Bills Podcast: A Case for Tremaine Edmunds


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I have an analogy that is less than perfect but will get my point across: my daughter is in middle school and plays for her school and the YMCA. I am her coach at the Y and because of her I am able to play a high pressure defense with the other 4 on the court and just her defending the lane basically in a league where the majority of the baskets are from the foul line or closer. When she is on the court the other teams generally don't score, but she does not block many shots or  get a ton of steals, all of her teammates do that and have the stats but she is the reason we won most games by an average of  about 28-8. At end of year one of the parents still said the kid who had the most steals was our defensive MVP, when I could have replaced him with so  many of the other kids in the league. The entire point of my big diatribe is that when you build an odd defense  people who don't understand it think of the positions conventionally, even when they are clearly being asked to do different.

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31 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I have an analogy that is less than perfect but will get my point across: my daughter is in middle school and plays for her school and the YMCA. I am her coach at the Y and because of her I am able to play a high pressure defense with the other 4 on the court and just her defending the lane basically in a league where the majority of the baskets are from the foul line or closer. When she is on the court the other teams generally don't score, but she does not block many shots or  get a ton of steals, all of her teammates do that and have the stats but she is the reason we won most games by an average of  about 28-8. At end of year one of the parents still said the kid who had the most steals was our defensive MVP, when I could have replaced him with so  many of the other kids in the league. The entire point of my big diatribe is that when you build an odd defense  people who don't understand it think of the positions conventionally, even when they are clearly being asked to do different.

Good example.   But why doesn't your league ban that style of play?  It deosn't help in skill development.  

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1 hour ago, RochesterLifer said:

So, now Tremaine Edmunds is the Bills' equivalent of an outfielder batting .160, truly amazing - and fortunately, comedic.

 

 

No it's merely meant to be an example of just how far teams will go to not criticize an underachieving player when they are stuck with him and a big guaranteed $ commitment.    

 

That said,  Joey Gallo(the outfielder in question) and Edmunds were similar level of players in their respective sports until a year ago when Gallo fell into a prolonged slump(that continues still).

 

Both were 2 time league All-Star/Pro Bowl players with things they do very well.  

 

Gallo the best defensive outfielder in the American League at his position twice and possessing enormous power.   

 

Edmunds........he has been really durable.  And he's young.  And produces a respectable amount of tackles and CAN cover a lot of ground in pass defense(even if much too often he can't make a play on the ball even when he has good coverage......and then, of course,  he too often gets suckered into covering the wrong ground by QB's that know the way his unininstictive mind works because of the tendencies he's put on tape).

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3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Marino's declaration that the Bills were sold on Edmunds as the leader of their defense was a fact-free fact..........not something "in depth".

 

The Bills are stuck with Edmunds this season because they had to commit to his fully guaranteed 5th year option AFTER 2020.

 

Other than extend him long term, which they obviously haven't felt compelled to do, there is simply nothing they can do but ride it out with him in 2021 and try to prop up his confidence.

 

People who can't see this simply don't understand pro sports and teams being stuck with bad contracts.

This is exactly my thinking but they didn't seem that interested in drafting his replacement either.  Bernard is too small to replace him which still makes me scratch my head on why the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on him with Milano locked up through 2024.  My gut tells me that they're going to let him play out this year and if he doesn't improve they'll let him walk unless they can get him at what they see as fair market value.  Then they'll likely draft his replacement and rely on the veterans to give the rookie a crash course in their scheme.

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5 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

thanks, was this the podcast referred to by LeGOATski in the other thread?

 

 

 

I don't know.  I don't read all the threads.  If he was talking about Edmunds specifically, then it was probably the same one.  I noticed the mention on page 45 of a thread started in April.  

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I have an analogy that is less than perfect but will get my point across: my daughter is in middle school and plays for her school and the YMCA

 

So you're saying Edmunds plays like a little girl? Jeez man, I've criticized him, but take it easy.

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3 hours ago, SCBills said:


He has trade value.  If we were “stuck” with him at a price we didn’t want to deal with, we would have moved him by now.  

 

 

As "guaranteed contract league's" like MLB and the NBA/NHL have proven......it definitely can be both.

 

The player can have a some kind of trade value but it can be low enough and the roster can be shallow enough at the position to make it not worthwhile to eat 8 figures of salary and make a trade when you are chasing a championship.

 

That's the situation the Yankees found themselves in with Joey Gallo this offseason as well.    They had a lot of trade interest in spring but also no depth at the position.......so they were hoping for the light to turn on for him with a new season.

 

 Edmunds situation is similar.........the Bills are still keeping the possibility open that the light will come on for him fully and he will start playing up to his  All-Pro-like physical gifts.    

 

Again, I'm not saying Edmunds is destined to fall off a cliff like Gallo has......it's likely been a worst case scenario with Gallo as a hitter............but another reason why this comp is relevant is because Edmunds is the rare non-QB who is playing on a fully guaranteed "baseball-like" contract.

 

And back to trade value........what really kills the trade value Edmunds may have is that he has a very high $12.7M cap number for 2021..........and absolutely zero motivation whatsoever to lower that cap figure without getting a long term deal at the top of the market.

 

Any team that is looking to pay much of anything in draft picks for a one year rental of a $13M MLB in trade likely considers themselves a contender.   Contenders generally have less cap space.    

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I'm betting the team will try to re-sign Edmunds.  Why?

 

He's a valuable part of the Bills' D. If he leaves who will replace him?  As Joe marino says Edmunds is a physical freak, tall, huge windspan and covers alot of ground.

 

Sure he has weaknesses but whoever replaces him would not be able to do what he does.

 

Replacing him would require a restructuring the Bills' base defense and likely set back the D a year or two. 

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I think he'll have a better season playing behind a better line.  He's asked to cover multiple gaps in the run game, and often chooses the wrong gap.  Maybe that's planned by the opposing offense to get him out of the way.  There is criticism over his lack of splash plays, but he's not normally in position to jackhammer anybody.  He's quick enough to jump into plays and disrupt the flow.  

 

It's hard to be to critical of the so-called leader of the number one defense in the league.  

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8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

This is exactly my thinking but they didn't seem that interested in drafting his replacement either.  Bernard is too small to replace him which still makes me scratch my head on why the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on him with Milano locked up through 2024.  My gut tells me that they're going to let him play out this year and if he doesn't improve they'll let him walk unless they can get him at what they see as fair market value.  Then they'll likely draft his replacement and rely on the veterans to give the rookie a crash course in their scheme.

This is a very, very un-Beanelike plan.  Who's to say there's a first- or second-round talent in the draft who can play MLB?   And who's to say the Bills could work the draft to get him?   I can't imagine that Beane and McDermott would go naked into the 2023 off-season like that.   That alone suggests to me that the Bills will keep him. 

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14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a very, very un-Beanelike plan.  Who's to say there's a first- or second-round talent in the draft who can play MLB?   And who's to say the Bills could work the draft to get him?   I can't imagine that Beane and McDermott would go naked into the 2023 off-season like that.   That alone suggests to me that the Bills will keep him. 

So is letting a rookie play out his fifth year option without re-signing him long term.  There should be options out there in the draft (Noah Sewell out of Oregon.  Trenton Simpson out of Clemson, DeMarvion Overshown out of Tennessee to name a few).  They can always address the position in free agency or via trade too.  

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33 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

Replacing him would require a restructuring the Bills' base defense and likely set back the D a year or two. 

 

Based on some of the moves they've made this offseason I think they are already in the process of doing this. Same on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are not going to be stagnant. They are making intentional moves to keep their scheme more flexible than it has been. They do NOT need a MLB with Edmunds' athletic gifts to build a successful defense, that's crazy. McDermott has built several successful defenses with a wide variety of players.

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6 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjyNXYJVBJY

 

Joe Marino gets into some depth about Edmunds.  If you don't listen to "Locked on Bills," you should give it a try.  


let me ask you 

 

How many Edmunds threads do we need?

 

Search Edmunds and you will see half a dozen or more 

 

Oh look. Front Page 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/239576-can-we-talk-about-tremaine-edmunds/page/16/#comment-7781845

 

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5 hours ago, SCBills said:


I think most people here see the big picture.   
 

Marino also points out that Edmunds, right now, is not on the level of the highest paid Linebackers.  
 

If he doesn’t make a jump this year, behind a potentially elite DL, it’s going to be hard to swallow a Darius Leonard contract.

 

Furthermore, if you overpay by 5M AAV for a guy who never becomes elite, that is how you start putting yourself in cap jail.  
 

So far, Beane has been spot on with his big contracts, which is how you build a contender that doesn’t mortgage the future.  
 

Also, we can likely keep Edmunds, Poyer, Knox, Oliver etc., if we really want to.. but it also means no Roger Saffold, DaQuan Jones type signings anymore.

 

Easier pill to swallow if Edmunds is paid in the 13-15M range or earns the 19M, and we finally start devoting RD1 picks to the Offense. 
 

I did say it was a well rounded critique.


JM did state he is not a top tier salary candidate do to specific performance expectations, and I agree with that,  I suspect Beane has made such a point directly to TE and his agent, I am also certain that Beane made it clear that pay is directly tied to game changing play/ splash play numbers. 
 

I expect him to be re-signed to a deal commiserate with his performance standing. 

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27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
1 hour ago, Old Coot said:

Replacing him would require a restructuring the Bills' base defense and likely set back the D a year or two. 

 

Based on some of the moves they've made this offseason I think they are already in the process of doing this. Same on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are not going to be stagnant. They are making intentional moves to keep their scheme more flexible than it has been. They do NOT need a MLB with Edmunds' athletic gifts to build a successful defense, that's crazy. McDermott has built several successful defenses with a wide variety of players.

To be clear, I was not saying that a successful D cannot be built absent Edmunds.  I was saying that absent Edmunds the Bills will need to restructure their D.  It takes awhile for a D to jell; that's why I said the base D will likely be set back a year or two.  

 

In those one or two years, the Bills may lose other key players on D or O so that the replacement process becomes something akin to "Wack-A-Mole."

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30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Based on some of the moves they've made this offseason I think they are already in the process of doing this. Same on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are not going to be stagnant. They are making intentional moves to keep their scheme more flexible than it has been. They do NOT need a MLB with Edmunds' athletic gifts to build a successful defense, that's crazy. McDermott has built several successful defenses with a wide variety of players.

That's interesting.  If they replace Edmunds, the roles of all the pass defenders change.   That's a big move.  But you may be right.  They certainly are intentional.  Maybe McDermott will be happy with a less mobile, more traditional MLB, with the idea that Bernard and Milano will have enough speed and quickness in the passing game.  Quite possible.  

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6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If the Bills really thought Edmunds was that important they would have paid him already. Since Beane took over they have paid their core players early. Allen, White, Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, Dawkins - these players all got new contracts a year before it was necessary. With Edmunds they exercised the 5th year option and are seemingly set to let him play it out this season and decide from there. So Beane and the coaches can say whatever they want in their press conferences. Their actions tell us otherwise.

 

Actually what they have said in pressers this off season has been telling too. The Beane combine presser apart it has been much less effusive in their praise / defense of Edmunds than in prior years. 

 

I think they are going to let it play out. That doesn't mean they definitely won't extend him eventually. But I agree if they thought he was a "must keep" it would have happened by now. 

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I like Joe Marino and I listen to the podcast pretty much everyday. Of course he has a couple takes I disagree with.
 

One that comes to mind is that you shouldn’t blame Beane for the Wyatt Teller trade. It’s not the end of the world but it was a mistake. There’s nothing wrong with admitting that. Beane has done a lot more good than bad. 
 

The reason I bring that up is because this Edmunds podcast is another case of Joe being too much of a homer to be objective. You can hear it in his voice. Even when he talks about the negatives he immediately makes excuses for TE. 
 

He puts far too much value in Edmunds’ length and unprovable theories about what opposing QBs are thinking. Having longer arms is negligible when you take a wrong step in coverage and are a couple feet out of position. 
 

Here’s a perfect example where the arms don’t help because they’re attached to a body that is in the wrong spot:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/touchdown-travis-kelce-uses-double-move-on-tremaine-edmunds

 

I know it’s the best tight end in football but it’s just an example of what Edmunds does far too often. 

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11 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjyNXYJVBJY

 

Joe Marino gets into some depth about Edmunds.  If you don't listen to "Locked on Bills," you should give it a try.  


Why not take the time to differentiate this topic and focus the title on the podcast? When you name it something that is indistinguishable from the other topic, then what’s the point?

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9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If the Bills really thought Edmunds was that important they would have paid him already. Since Beane took over they have paid their core players early. Allen, White, Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, Dawkins - these players all got new contracts a year before it was necessary. With Edmunds they exercised the 5th year option and are seemingly set to let him play it out this season and decide from there. So Beane and the coaches can say whatever they want in their press conferences. Their actions tell us otherwise.

Bingo. Been saying this all along.

 

Basically picking up his 5th year option means, "he's ok, we would like to see more and he's got potential to get better ".

 

If they truly thought he was the cornerstone player, he would have been extended already as you mentioned.

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9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I've of two minds about this.   First, I'd say you're correct.   If his impact is as great as Marino suggests, then he IS as valuable as the highest paid linebackers, just in a different way.   If he's a unicorn who affects the game as he say, yes, you pay him. 

 

However, Beane may have decided to pay him already, but in their overall cap-strategy it may have been better to wait a year to pay him.  I don't capology, so I can't really say, but it certainly may be the case.  Maybe they were going to extend Edmunds until it became possible to get Miller, and that may have forced the Bills to wait a year on Edmunds.   I don't think we can know the answer to that. 

 

Could be too that Beane first wants the dust to settle on the Proyer contract situation, maybe a Knox extension and any late unexpected signings either due to some team releasing a good player that fills a need Sept 1st or Bills need to sign someone due to training camp injury. Maybe he signs a new deal right before week one once team has a better handle on $$ available.

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1 hour ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:


 

Here’s a perfect example where the arms don’t help because they’re attached to a body that is in the wrong spot:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/touchdown-travis-kelce-uses-double-move-on-tremaine-edmunds

 

I know it’s the best tight end in football but it’s just an example of what Edmunds does far too often. 

 

 

That's a great example of Edmunds lack of instincts and just general inability to think quickly on his feet.

 

He jumps HARD inside even though he should know there is no chance that Mahomes would ever throw that ball.    Ever.    He took the most egregious of cheese like he was a preseason camp body MLB. 

 

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  • SDS changed the title to Locked on Bills Podcast: A Case for Tremaine Edmunds
53 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's a great example of Edmunds lack of instincts and just general inability to think quickly on his feet.

 

He jumps HARD inside even though he should know there is no chance that Mahomes would ever throw that ball.    Ever.    He took the most egregious of cheese like he was a preseason camp body MLB. 

 

Maybe Edmunds doesn’t know the defense well enough to know that his teammate, Taron Johnson, is playing a zone to his immediate left and would light Kelce up if he was to continue that route. It’s just lack of awareness and responsibility on Edmunds’ part. His lack of instinct didn’t even matter on that particular play. You’ve gotta know where your help is and where it isn’t and he’s just not a natural field general despite what some others would have you believe. 

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7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

So you're saying Edmunds plays like a little girl? Jeez man, I've criticized him, but take it easy.

I started by pointing out it was not a  perfect analogy, but also have you watched middle school basketball lately? It would not be  nearly the insult you think it is. 🙂

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Happy for Joe Marino to get some extra clicks. I've enjoyed his podcast for a few years now and he is actually willing to reply to your questions directly. He's tried to sound like he's taking a middle ground on Edmunds which is overly optimistic in my opinion. 

 

Please don't get me wrong, I would love for Tremaine to become something more. Nothing would make me happier than for our revamped DL to wreak so much havoc that all he has to do is concentrate on his read/gaps/fits. What the podcast highlighted, perhaps unintentionally, is the pro side of the argument rests solely on two factors: he's got great length/speed and he's not easily replaceable. That's it. The cons are many:

  1. he can't shed a block by a slot WR
  2. he's not good at blitzing
  3. for his touted wingspan, he doesn't have impressive numbers of passes defended or batted down
  4. for his role--that he's been in for multiple seasons--when he misdiagnoses a play its disastrous. Maybe we're expecting too much from him but that would be a conceit that the coaching staff expects too much. 
  5. he's had these issues since he was drafted. Either he doesn't spend any time working on them, or he's reached his ceiling

I think Marino had the right way to approach his contract, if he doesn't make strides and is the same player you pay him as such and tell him to test the market but we have a locker for him if he wants one. Maybe he walks and we recoup a compensatory pick. If he shows some block shedding skills, bats down passes, and channels Von Miller to blitz like a banshee, you pay him to stay. 

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6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

make it stop...

 

 

if it takes this many years and this many threads to decide whether a guy is worth pay...he probably isn't

  All this noise about his re-signing is likely already settled business for OBD, and is not more than a timing issue with multiple contracts being on the table currently, or some such a thing.  He may walk after this season, he may be making 15 million a year give or take, for three ish years after this season, no one here knows for certain, but back to the OP’s initial point, Marino lays it out in a reasonable fashion, with TE’s pluses and minuses in plain view…, not much else to say about the topic. My gut feeling is he gets re-signed at whatever rate that is I don’t care so much, the cap is “just accounting”  and totally manipulated at need. 

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I really don't think it is. I think they are in genuine wait and see mode. 

“Settled” in which they know what they are willing to pay relevant to performance goals being met/ the Poyer(sp) outcome, hence, “or some such a thing” , OBD knows the steps they will take going forward concerning TE and Poyer(sp) 

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On 7/2/2022 at 10:26 AM, TC in St. Louis said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjyNXYJVBJY

 

Joe Marino gets into some depth about Edmunds.  If you don't listen to "Locked on Bills," you should give it a try.  

Joe really usually does a nice iob. This one is not one of his better.  It's more of a, why you should not hate Tremaine and that's OK! But it's not super insightful.

 

I mean we get it, they said he's a leader, he's got a lot on his plate, he's young, and he's a physical specimen.

 

This is all stuff we already know. Would have been cool to see how he compares in his last few seasons to his rookie scouting report or something.

 

I listen to it everyday and enjoy it but I was a little left with wanting something more  then a lecture on why I should appreciate Tremaine vs more factual stuff. 

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I really don't think it is. I think they are in genuine wait and see mode. 

And it might be this way with some of the other impending free agents like Poyer and Knox.  If everyone balls out, probably can’t retain everyone.  If not, then that’s their answer of who to try and retain.  I personally think Edmunds is going to have his best year yet, given the improved D-Line talent in front of him, it’s a contract year, and he’s in his prime.

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14 hours ago, benderbender said:

Happy for Joe Marino to get some extra clicks. I've enjoyed his podcast for a few years now and he is actually willing to reply to your questions directly. He's tried to sound like he's taking a middle ground on Edmunds which is overly optimistic in my opinion. 

 

Please don't get me wrong, I would love for Tremaine to become something more. Nothing would make me happier than for our revamped DL to wreak so much havoc that all he has to do is concentrate on his read/gaps/fits. What the podcast highlighted, perhaps unintentionally, is the pro side of the argument rests solely on two factors: he's got great length/speed and he's not easily replaceable. That's it. The cons are many:

  1. he can't shed a block by a slot WR
  2. he's not good at blitzing
  3. for his touted wingspan, he doesn't have impressive numbers of passes defended or batted down
  4. for his role--that he's been in for multiple seasons--when he misdiagnoses a play its disastrous. Maybe we're expecting too much from him but that would be a conceit that the coaching staff expects too much. 
  5. he's had these issues since he was drafted. Either he doesn't spend any time working on them, or he's reached his ceiling

I think Marino had the right way to approach his contract, if he doesn't make strides and is the same player you pay him as such and tell him to test the market but we have a locker for him if he wants one. Maybe he walks and we recoup a compensatory pick. If he shows some block shedding skills, bats down passes, and channels Von Miller to blitz like a banshee, you pay him to stay. 

I really don't know where the Bills are going with Edmunds, but continuing to read an interesting collection of posts from smart people suggests to me that they will move on from Edmunds unless he has a big year.  

 

I would add to your list that for all his size and speed, he is not an impressive hitter.  He rarely blows up anyone.  

 

Marino's point, and the argument I've been fleshing out, is all of those complaints add up to the same thing: he isn't a great, traditional linebacker.  His value, if Marino is correct, is invisible.   His value, if Marino is correct comes from things that the opponent doesn't do when he's on the field.   

 

It's like how a shut down corner usually has very few interceptions.  Why?  Because the offense doesn't throw in his direction.   The value of the guy is not found in a traditional measure of quality corner play; the shut down corner's value is that he takes away more than 1/11 of the field, which means the other ten each have less than 1/11th to defend.  

 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

Edited by Shaw66
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47 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

Joe really usually does a nice iob. This one is not one of his better.  It's more of a, why you should not hate Tremaine and that's OK! But it's not super insightful.

 

I mean we get it, they said he's a leader, he's got a lot on his plate, he's young, and he's a physical specimen.

 

This is all stuff we already know. Would have been cool to see how he compares in his last few seasons to his rookie scouting report or something.

 

I listen to it everyday and enjoy it but I was a little left with wanting something more  then a lecture on why I should appreciate Tremaine vs more factual stuff. 

You didn't like the factual stats comparing Edmunds to his contemporaries?

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1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

And it might be this way with some of the other impending free agents like Poyer and Knox.  If everyone balls out, probably can’t retain everyone.  If not, then that’s their answer of who to try and retain.  I personally think Edmunds is going to have his best year yet, given the improved D-Line talent in front of him, it’s a contract year, and he’s in his prime.

 

I agree. I think they have Ed Oliver in "likely retain" territory but I think the rest of those guys (add Devin too) are genuine wait and sees.

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13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

make it stop...

 

 

if it takes this many years and this many threads to decide whether a guy is worth pay...he probably isn't

This is correct.

 

The players that ALWAYS have topics about them on TBD are pretty much not good.


Trent

Maybin

Losman

Whitner

McKelvin

EJ

Brandon Reilly

Edmunds

 

Millions of topics. Not good players.

 

When was the last “Tre White” topic? Probably 2 years ago. Because he’s a good player and it’s obvious to everyone.

 

When was the last “Milano” topic? Again, probably 2 years ago, because he’s good and we all know this.

 

Edmunds is mediocre. Time to accept it.

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18 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:


let me ask you 

 

How many Edmunds threads do we need?

 

Search Edmunds and you will see half a dozen or more 

 

Oh look. Front Page 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/239576-can-we-talk-about-tremaine-edmunds/page/16/#comment-7781845

 

 

I just shared some new information about the Joe Marino podcast from 3 days ago.  If you want to search through all those other topics, go right ahead.  Does it cost people anything to look at new information without having to scroll through posts created in April?  

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I really don't think it is. I think they are in genuine wait and see mode. 

 

 

If he takes that next step..........and to this point, starting to play "instinctively" has proven to be a huge step too far for him..........he would be an All Pro........then the question is do they pay him $20M per year?    

 

For reference, the "Legion of Boom" Seahawks paid their back 7 big bucks at the expense of the rest of the team and look where that lead them to.

 

If he stays where he was at in 2021..........I don't see him being retained even for Milano money.   

 

So there is, or at least "should be", a pretty narrow runway to him landing long term deal in Buffalo, IMO.

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