Divisional Round: Buffalo at KC Sunday at 6:30

[MiltonWaddams]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I see you are a disciple of the "No Fun League"

Nope. More of a situation where I don’t want to see players truly celebrating until the dragon has been slayed. Gabe and Doyle’s TD’s on Saturday were examples of when to let loose, and the player and team did on each.

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

2 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Nope. More of a situation where I don’t want to see players truly celebrating until the dragon has been slayed. Gabe and Doyle’s TD’s on Saturday were examples of when to let loose, and the player and team did on each.

100%. Nothing irks me more than when WRs. Celebrate routine first down catches….that’s your job. Look at Micah’s int against the Pats. Amazing, yes. But it was the first quarter. No big hooplah, just doing his job. Let the fans go nuts. 
 

Now, if it’s the 4th quarter and you just converted on a huge 4th down or intercepted the ball on a final drive…sure, go nuts….time and place. 

[Son of a K-Gun]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

People who find the name “Chiefs” offensive really need to get a grip and find something useful to complain about.

 

Nothing whatsoever is disparaging about that name.

Ugh, never said I was offended by the name...just saying that it might be culturally insensitive.  There are a lot of things the we used to say, or our parents or grandparents used to say, that simply shouldn't be said anymore.  I can't really believe that I have to defend this position in 2022, especially the day after MLK.

 

 

[Rockinon]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… never understood the “we’re built to beat the Chiefs” narrative… I expect the defense to struggle for much of the game. This games on the offense to match the Chiefs drive for drive.

Tell that to the #1 defense in the NFL. This is not just on the offense.

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, Son of a K-Gun said:

Ugh, never said I was offended by the name...just saying that it might be culturally insensitive.  There are a lot of things the we used to say, or our parents or grandparents used to say, that simply shouldn't be said anymore.  I can't really believe that I have to defend this position in 2022, especially the day after MLK.

 

 

I don’t think that Chiefs is a derogatory term or culturally insensitive. It is used worldwide in many cultures as the term for a leader of a group. Chief of Staff, tribal chief etc. when you mix it with aboriginal headdress, that’s when things start getting a little bit out of whack. The Tomahawk chop is a bit of a grey area.

[FilthyBeast]

3 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Tell that to the #1 defense in the NFL. This is not just on the offense.

 

Everyone knows the Bills defense is very good but the metrics are misleading for a number of reasons, specially the amount of rookie/backup QB's this team has faced through the course of the year.

 

Conversely you can say the same about the Chiefs as well considering how they stacked good games in the 2nd half of the season against a lot of poor matchups.

 

But at end of the day, anyone expecting the Bills defense to come close to replicating what they did in October or last week is kidding themselves. Wallace and Jackson are going to get picked and exposed big time like they did against Brady and the Bucs but the question is whether or not Allen and the offense can come close to having the performance they did against Patriots on the road against a much different team and QB.

[Punching Bag]

On 1/16/2022 at 11:14 PM, SoCal Deek said:

By the way weather report shows between 20 and 30 degrees but sunny all next Sunday in KC

 

Sunny @ 8:30 PM will be amazing.  Did game get moved to Fairbanks?

[Son of a K-Gun]

5 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

I don’t think that Chiefs is a derogatory term or culturally insensitive. It is used worldwide in many cultures as the term for a leader of a group. Chief of Staff, tribal chief etc. when you mix it with aboriginal headdress, that’s when things start getting a little bit out of whack. The Tomahawk chop is a bit of a grey area.

Yes, completely agree...it is the context around it, that's all.  

[Punching Bag]

On 1/16/2022 at 11:22 PM, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

By the time we play there will only be 5 teams left.  Why not us?

 

And if Bengals beat Titans the Bills will have additional incentive to win - playing AFC Championship at home.

[appoo]

Huge difference between Redskins/Indians & Chiefs

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

And if Bengals beat Titans the Bills will have additional incentive to win - playing AFC Championship at home.

 

This is the same for KC though since they are the #2 seed and getting a 4th straight AFC championship at home puts them in the same company as the 90's Bills. In fact they would surpass them since the Bills didn't play at home int the AFC championship all 4 years they were in the SB, in the 3rd year it was on the road in Miami.

Edited January 18, 2022 by FilthyBeast

[Jauronimo]

39 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Saw this in some of the coverage for the upcoming game and it made me think, this is a terrible analogy.

 

People like/enjoy cake, hell some people love it I guess, but people don't need cake.

 

If the Chiefs are a team that's like "Yes I'd enjoy a second piece of cake." the Bills are a man dying of thirst that sees a glass of water.

I think you under estimate how much Andy Reid loves cake and what he would do for a piece.  

[Rockinon]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Everyone knows the Bills defense is very good but the metrics are misleading for a number of reasons, specially the amount of rookie/backup QB's this team has faced through the course of the year.

 

Conversely you can say the same about the Chiefs as well considering how they stacked good games in the 2nd half of the season against a lot of poor matchups.

 

But at end of the day, anyone expecting the Bills defense to come close to replicating what they did in October or last week is kidding themselves. Wallace and Jackson are going to get picked and exposed big time like they did against Brady and the Bucs but the question is whether or not Allen and the offense can come close to having the performance they did against Patriots on the road against a much different team and QB.

I expect Buffalo's defense to throw some different looks at Mahomes and to disquise coverages. The key is going to be pressuring him until he makes a mistake. This is not just about the guys on the back end. I see a lot of people worried about specific matchups and thinking that Mahomes will expliot them. To a certain degree, those are valid arguments, but keep in mind that, as a whole the defense is playing a very strong game. There is a reason Buffalo is number one and it isn't just because of a few good DBs. Mahomes makes mistakes and this D is good at forcing those mistakes. It could be just one mistake in 60mins that turns the tide of the game. Question isn't whether Mahomes is going to hit his receivers. It's whether he can play mistake free. Will he take a sack, throw an interception, fumble the ball? The Bills defense is a group of 11 guys all doing their part to force a mistake and Mahomes, just like Allen make mistakes. This game is going to be about who makes fewer. The way I see it, Buffalo has the advantage here.

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, Rockinon said:

I expect Buffalo's defense to throw some different looks at Mahomes and to disquise coverages. The key is going to be pressuring him until he makes a mistake. This is not just about the guys on the back end. I see a lot of people worried about specific matchups and thinking that Mahomes will expliot them. To a certain degree, those are valid arguments, but keep in mind that, as a whole the defense is playing a very strong game. There is a reason Buffalo is number one and it isn't just because of a few good DBs. Mahomes makes mistakes and this D is good at forcing those mistakes. It could be just one mistake in 60mins that turns the tide of the game. Question isn't whether Mahomes is going to hit his receivers. It's whether he can play mistake free. Will he take a sack, throw an interception, fumble the ball? The Bills defense is a group of 11 guys all doing their part to force a mistake and Mahomes, just like Allen make mistakes. This game is going to be about who makes fewer. The way I see it, Buffalo has the advantage here.

 

They are going to have to take a lot of chances and bring pressure. Dropping into coverage is a recipe for disaster and essentially would be the same failed game plan as in the AFCCG.

 

Everyone knows the Chiefs will move the ball but the difference will be holding them to FG's or forcing turnovers instead of allowing TD's. What I worry most about is the guys like Pringle going off because of all the attention Hill and Kelce command.

[dave mcbride]

41 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I thought he did an admirable job covering Gronkowski and Pitts. He gave up one big completion to Pitts but that will happen to anyone eventually. Jackson struggles against double moves and sudden change in direction but that's not as important against TEs.

Disagree - Kelce is a lot more shifty than Gronk at this point.

[SCBills]

17 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

They are going to have to take a lot of chances and bring pressure. Dropping into coverage is a recipe for disaster and essentially would be the same failed game plan as in the AFCCG.

 

Everyone knows the Chiefs will move the ball but the difference will be holding them to FG's or forcing turnovers instead of allowing TD's. What I worry most about is the guys like Pringle going off because of all the attention Hill and Kelce command.

 

I think you have to bracket Hill with either Jackson or Wallace underneath and one of our Safeties over the top, the physically beat up Kelce.  Hit him on every release and be physical with him early on in his routes.  

 

I can't see us doing anything other than that with those two. 

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

They are going to have to take a lot of chances and bring pressure. Dropping into coverage is a recipe for disaster and essentially would be the same failed game plan as in the AFCCG.

 

Everyone knows the Chiefs will move the ball but the difference will be holding them to FG's or forcing turnovers instead of allowing TD's. What I worry most about is the guys like Pringle going off because of all the attention Hill and Kelce command.

Yeah, but you never stop worrying.

 

The thing you don't want to do against the Chiefs is blitz. Mahomes destroys the blitz.

 

Dropping into coverage is not a recipe for disaster. You just have to do it right.

[Dr. K]

7 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

The place I have a genuine concern about, and I think this will go a long way in determining the game's outcome, is our cornerbacks. The Chiefs' receiving core puts pressure on the best D-backs. Our guys have played well since Tre's injury, but they have not played anything close to the quality of what they will be up against on Sunday; this will be the first real test. Will they hold up? The one thing they do have is two of the best Safeties in the league to help cover up for other deficiencies. Hyde and Poyer will need to be at their best.

This is my biggest concern as well. But often what happens is these games is not at all what we expect. It could turn on the defense's ability to handle the running game, for all I know. 

[Brand J]

I didn’t look up the stats to confirm my suspicions, but I feel Melvin Ingram has always terrorized the Bills whenever we went against him, back to his days with the Chargers. He got the better of Dawkins in week 1 this year, but Dawkins is a different player now than he was then. Bills OL vs Chiefs DL will determine the outcome of the game. 

[Patrick Duffy]

If Bills play like they did Saturday night against KC, or even just close to the same....then it's a very good chance we will be making back to back AFCCG appearances. This is much different than week 5 game against KC. This game Sunday is what these Bills players/staff have wanted since their season ended. This is the 2nd chance against KC they have been so eager, and ready for.

 

You can believe it's as fresh on their minds now as it was a year ago. Those emotions etc will have them watering at the mouth for this "revenge game" as some call it. This is the true "revenge game" Sunday, not week 5 and I feel VERY confident our Bills are going to show that. 

 

 

23 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yeah, but you never stop worrying.

 

The thing you don't want to do against the Chiefs is blitz. Mahomes destroys the blitz.

 

Dropping into coverage is not a recipe for disaster. You just have to do it right.

Agree, May see Bills play somewhat of a similar type Defense as we saw against KC in week 5.

[Logic]

Neither the Bengals nor the Titans are going to beat the Bills or Chiefs in the playoffs.

Whoever wins the Bills-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Logic

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Serious question for the X-and-O’ers on the forum…what’s your thinking regarding the Bills’ D and how they cope with all of KC’s speed this week?  I believe Allen and our O will continue to perform at a high level because of the balance and versatility we’ve shown, but crazy stuff happens and I’d like to think we can get a somewhat comfortable lead — that will depend upon how well the D can slow KC down.

 

 

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… never understood the “we’re built to beat the Chiefs” narrative… I expect the defense to struggle for much of the game. This games on the offense to match the Chiefs drive for drive.

I'll take a stab at this @eball, it's definitely the million-dollar question this week and the reason why Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier get paid the big bucks. 

 

I share the concerns you guys have noted and I think in today's NFL, elite offense beats elite defense every time. The QBs are too good, the field is too big, and the rules are stacked against the defenders. It's next to impossible to truly stop a high-octane offense like KC's or Buffalo's, the best you can hope for is making them work their way down the field over double digit plays, tackle well, allow FG attempts instead of TDs in the red zone, and try to force negative plays or turnovers. I wouldn't expect the Bills defense to dominate this Sunday and they very well could struggle (which I would consider as giving up 25+ points and 350+ yards based on their usual league-leading averages). 

 

That said, I do believe in the "defense was built to beat the Chiefs" narrative @ScottLaw mentioned. For one, I think there's a direct correlation between the way Tampa Bay was able to affect Patrick Mahomes using its pass rush in the Super Bowl and the way the Bills struggled in that area last season which led to the double dip of Rousseau and Basham in this draft class by Brandon Beane. The Bills have used a lot of resources including several high draft picks to build a very deep and versatile defensive line group that rotates/keeps everyone fresh and is mostly made up of long-limbed guys at DE who win with power, set the edge, get their hands up to disrupt throwing lanes, and collapse the pocket to prevent a Mahomes from scrambling. The Bills definitely have a type and this kind of outside rusher in theory combines well with the interior pressure someone like Ed Oliver creates against a mobile QB. Now, you can certainly argue with the effectiveness of the execution of this strategy (for example, I wish AJ Epenesa was better at this stage/could we have drafted a more dynamic player with that pick?), but it feels like as good of an approach to the defensive line as you could take without having a Bosa or Watt on your team.

 

In the back seven, I think Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are ideal LBs to combat KC's offense. Edmunds gets a lot of criticism (some fair, some not) for his run defense, but KC is not particularly effective running the ball (16th in run yards per game and the YPC of their primary RB tandem is only 4.1) so this matchup plays to his strengths AKA using his pterodactyl wingspan to take away the middle part of the field in coverage. Milano (who missed our Week 5 game vs KC) can be a tight end eraser when deployed that way (just limited Mac Jones' favorite weapon in Hunter Henry to one catch). Behind them is the most fundamentally sound secondary in football led by the best safety tandem in football. Hyde and Poyer do an outstanding job of showing one coverage pre-snap and rotating to a different one, they're the reasonBuffalo gives up so few chunk plays. Taron Johnson has put together a career best season so far and he's excellent in run support as well. Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are smart, steady CBs, but that's where I think most of our anxiety lies as they have the toughest match up and cannot hang with KC's elite speed at WR. Buffalo will miss Tre White's instincts and ballhawk ability, but to be honest, White can't keep up with Hill or Hardman one-on-one either.  It's all about the secondary working together and knowing the scheme inside-and-out, they'll have to guard these guys as a complete unit and there's always going to be some element of safety help over the top when trying to defend the Chiefs (Hill in particular). 

 

Basically, my plan of attack would be to play contain and collapse the pocket with four rushers with seven defenders back in coverage on the vast majority of plays (very few blitzes). They need to play with proper gap integrity and leverage to prevent those QB scrambles or escapes to extend the play. If they can't reach Mahomes, the line needs to get their arms up to bat down passes especially with some of those weird arm angles Mahomes employs (the perfect example was the TJ Watt tip and Devin Bush INT this past weekend). KC's interior offensive line is really strong, but I think both tackles (Orlando Brown Jr and Andrew Wylie) are beatable. Next, I would chip Kelce with a lineman on as many plays as possible to disrupt their timing and use a combination of Milano shadowing Kelce on some snaps with some bracket coverage using a CB and safety mixed in to keep them guessing.  Edmunds needs to patrol the middle, affect those quick slants/crossers, and fire downhill in the screen game. The secondary needs to bracket Hill with safety help and force targets away from Hill/Kelce in general. It's cliche, but you have to force those other secondary weapons to try to beat you (Hardman, Pringle, Robinson), none of those guys are special as WRs. Overall, I think you live with short completions, then rally and tackle to prevent YAC, and make KC drive the length of the field. Take Hill and Kelce away to the extent possible and limit Mahomes' ability to escape the pocket. It's a tall task, but we did it rather effectively in Week 5 and I trust McDermott, Frazier, and the Bills to figure out a way to do it again.

 

Interested to get your thoughts, Go Bills! 

[Coach Tuesday]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Disagree - Kelce is a lot more shifty than Gronk at this point.

 

He's just a nightmare to cover.  I'd love it if they could just match up Siran Neal on him and have Neal bully him out of his breaks but they've tried that before, I believe, and it didn't go too well.  Taron is just too small to deal with Kelce I'm afraid. 

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, Logic said:

Neither the Bengals nor the Titans are going to beat the Bills or Chiefs in the playoffs.

Whoever wins the Bills-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

If Bills can get the win Sunday and if Bengals can knock off Tenn, I would love that scenario getting the AFCCG at home.

[Warcodered]

Just now, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

If Bills can get the win Sunday and if Bengals can knock off Tenn, I would love that scenario getting the AFCCG at home.

I'd love either scenario Bills vs. Bengals just seems like an awesome match up at this point, and the Titans would have the whole team locked in on vengeance.

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, Warcodered said:

I'd love either scenario Bills vs. Bengals just seems like an awesome match up at this point, and the Titans would have the whole team locked in on vengeance.

Yeah, I get it...but just imagine the amount of glory and what it would be like if Bills win AFCCG at home. OMG! My eyes get a little watery just thinking about it.

[Brand J]

I just don’t get why teams don’t line up a DE over Kelce and jam him at the line when he’s lined up off tackle. Disrupt their timing. He torched the Bills last year and Frazier never adjusted. He was just allowed to run unimpeded down after down. 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Yeah, I get it...but just imagine the amount of glory and what it would be like if Bills win AFCCG at home. OMG! My eyes get a little watery just thinking about it.

It's certainly imaginable for those of us who were there in the early 90's...indeed it's awesome!

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

It's certainly imaginable for those of us who were there in the early 90's...indeed it's awesome!

Yeah for sure.Unfortunately I wasn't in attendance, but I remember very vividly watching like it was yesterday

[ToGoGo]

3 hours ago, njbuff said:

People who find the name “Chiefs” offensive really need to get a grip and find something useful to complain about.

 

Nothing whatsoever is disparaging about that name.

 

You can even argue it's honoring Native Americans. Chiefs were cool people. Leaders and men of character and family. Great warriors and spiritual people. 

[Solomon Grundy]

The Bills are gonna have to occupy Willie Gay/Nick Bolton in this game. I’m not sure if anyone remember me saying to use McKenzie out of the backfield, but this needs to be done again this week. Throw early and often to him and Motor out of the backfield. Make their LBs work. Their depth isn’t great

[Patrick Duffy]

11 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

You can even argue it's honoring Native Americans. Chiefs were cool people. Leaders and men of character and family. Great warriors and spiritual people. 

That's what has always came to my mind when anytime "Chief", or "Chiefs" is mentioned for any subject/reason. Leader/warrior is the 1st thing pops in my mind. I understand "redskins" being offensive to Native Americans. But can't understand Chiefs as offensive. But anyways....

Edited January 18, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[Warcodered]

5 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

That's what has always came to my mind when anytime "Chief", or "Chiefs" is mentioned for any subject/reason. Leader/warrior is the 1st thing pops in my mind. I understand "redskins" being offensive to Native Americans. But can't understand Chiefs as offensive. But anyways....

I guess the issue might be less that it's offensive in a derogatory sense and more in a cultural appropriative one.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I guess the issue might be less that it's offensive in a derogatory sense and more in a cultural appropriative one.

Maybe so....who knows, if the Chiefs name is changed, then I assume Braves also at some point.. But anyways....

[Rampage]

54 minutes ago, Logic said:

Neither the Bengals nor the Titans are going to beat the Bills or Chiefs in the playoffs.

Whoever wins the Bills-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Tennessee is probably the most physical team in football. I wouldn't count them out.

[Jauronimo]

16 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

That's what has always came to my mind when anytime "Chief", or "Chiefs" is mentioned for any subject/reason. Leader/warrior is the 1st thing pops in my mind. I understand "redskins" being offensive to Native Americans. But can't understand Chiefs as offensive. But anyways....

I thought "Chief" was a term that low class slobs used in reference to anyone who owns a collared shirt?

 

Example:  "Hey, did you take out the trash?" "Whoooaaaaaa, hold on there, Chief, I'm on my smoke break!"

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I thought "Chief" was a term that low class slobs used in reference to anyone who owns a collared shirt?

 

Example:  "Hey, did you take out the trash?" "Whoooaaaaaa, hold on there, Chief, I'm on my smoke break!"

Well yeah I can say I've heard it that way before too. lol

[appoo]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

He's just a nightmare to cover.  I'd love it if they could just match up Siran Neal on him and have Neal bully him out of his breaks but they've tried that before, I believe, and it didn't go too well.  Taron is just too small to deal with Kelce I'm afraid. 

I don't know how you can individually deal with Kelce. 

 

I think you have to layer coverage against him and Hill. Back in Week 5, Taron Johnson played all but 1 snap, and we should see that again. You're not going to see much man + blitz rather you're going to see Milano and Edmunds cover the middle, Johnson add another zone layer to Kelce's predicted route, while the Safety play deep to take away Hill. A lot of variance between Cover 2/4/6 - with a light sprinkling of 3. I'd be stunned if the Bills played much 1 in non short yardage situations. 

[harryS]

the Chiefs have gotten much better against 2 high safety as the season has progressed (mostly because Mahomes has become more patient and stopped turning it over).  but conservative zone is still the best way to play them.  you'll give up 30 points, yes, but if you go aggressive against that speed, you're going to give up 50.  play conservative and give Josh a chance to outduel Mahomes.

 

KC is going to rape our defense.  It's up to our offense to rape their defense just a bit worse.

[Logic]

33 minutes ago, Rampage said:

Tennessee is probably the most physical team in football. I wouldn't count them out.

I respect that opinion, and I respectfully disagree with the notion that their physicality will matter much. I don't think that either their defense OR their offense can keep with this current form of the Chiefs and Bills.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Logic