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Does McD have the guts to make the call Harbaugh made?

DrDawkinstein

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DrDawkinstein

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1:00 left, 4th and 1...

 

Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")?

 

 

 

Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose.

 

We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1.

 

I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense.

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DrDawkinstein Hall of Famer

DrDawkinstein

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1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation.  It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs.  And I believe McDermott makes the same call there.

 

Even with our D playing as well as they have and McD being a D guy?

Just now, Logic said:

Yes, I think he absolutely does.

McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year.

 

 

Well, I hope he gets his groove back soon because his two wussy calls in the 1st half of the Steelers game helped us lose that one.

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TBBills All Pro

TBBills

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8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

1:00 left, 4th and 1...

 

Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")?

 

 

 

Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose.

 

We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1.

 

I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense.

This is from before the season started talking about Harbaugh guts for going for in on 4th down. He is in a list of top 5.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-best-fourth-down-decision-makers-kevin-stefanski-john-harbaugh-among-top-c

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RyanC883 All Pro

RyanC883

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McD may make the same call, but is Daboll smart enough to call a QB sneak, or will he get cute?  

 

I don't get the QB sneak hesitancy.  Brady did this all the time with the Pats**, and it almost always worked.  And I don't recall him ever getting injured from it.  

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Miyagi-Do Karate Hall of Famer

Miyagi-Do Karate

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6 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation.  It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs.  And I believe McDermott makes the same call there.


Agreed. It was about as no-brainer of a call you can get. I get that he is being praised for his guts— but the alternative was giving Mahomes the ball with like 1:30, and needing only a FG to win. 

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FilthyBeast Veteran

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9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

1:00 left, 4th and 1...

 

Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")?

 

 

 

Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose.

 

We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1.

 

I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense.

 

He's going to have to and it goes back to the championship game last year when he decided to kick field goals on fourth and goal situations instead of realizing they need to be aggressive to have a chance.

 

As of right now though it looks the Chiefs defense is not very good but we thought that last year as well and they seemed to play their best game of the season against the Bills when it mattered.

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BringBackFlutie RFA

BringBackFlutie

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5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yes, I think he absolutely does.

McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year.

 

I agree.  He seems to be perfectly willing to go for it when he thinks it'll really put things away.

 

One thing I hope we do from now on, though, is realize that that you absolutely need a yard, you put the ball in the best player on the field's hands.  Always.  We should never go for it on 4th and 1, in a crucial moment, and take the ball out of Josh's hands.

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TheBrownBear Veteran

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3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Even with our D playing as well as they have and McD being a D guy?

 

Of course, it's situational.  I assumed you were talking about the same scenario - 1 point lead, facing a Mahomes-led team that has already scored 35 points on your defense (and would have scored more if not for the CEH fumble the moment before).  McDermott is absolutely going for it on 4th in that situation.  Now, if it's 3-0 Buffalo, and Mahomes has played the worst game in his life and our defense hasn't let him get past midfield, then maybe he punts?  But in that scenario, Mahomes isn't "Mahomes", at least not on that day.

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DrDawkinstein Hall of Famer

DrDawkinstein

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10 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

McD may make the same call, but is Daboll smart enough to call a QB sneak, or will he get cute?  

 

I don't get the QB sneak hesitancy.  Brady did this all the time with the Pats**, and it almost always worked.  And I don't recall him ever getting injured from it.  

 

6 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

I agree.  He seems to be perfectly willing to go for it when he thinks it'll really put things away.

 

One thing I hope we do from now on, though, is realize that that you absolutely need a yard, you put the ball in the best player on the field's hands.  Always.  We should never go for it on 4th and 1, in a crucial moment, and take the ball out of Josh's hands.

 

This is largely what inspired this post.

 

While NFL football has evolved into a highly complex game, the basics are still pretty simple. And get even simpler when all you need is 3 feet, and your QB is well over 6ft.

 

For as much as I hate the Pats, I always respected/appreciated Belichick's ability to get out of his own way and see the opportunities to simplify the game. Biggest case in point was their seemingly hardset rule that if it is Down and 1, they run up to the line and quick sneak it on a silent count for an easy pick-up. No reason to not do that EVERY TIME, and without question. Almost completely regardless of the situation. It was just a confidence and understanding that they WILL pick up 3 feet.

 

Waiting to see the Bills get to that point in their confidence and killer instinct. Simplify the game and take the gimmes.

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elijah Rookie

elijah

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Does McD need the guts to make the call Harbaugh made? 

 

I forget the exact scenario last night, but it was something like BAL ball on their own 40, KC with 0 timeouts with about a minute left

 

If Baltimore doesn’t get it, KC needs 5 yards for FG range and 15 for a ‘safe’ field goal. If Baltimore punts KC has about 50 seconds to go ~45-55 yards with no timeouts. 

 

This was more of a ballsy call than the right call in my opinion. If Baltimore doesn’t get this first that’s a head scratching play call with the Ravens almost certainly looking at 0-2. I’m all aboard the go for it on 4th down train, but that one was not one of the times I would’ve supported it. 

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DrDawkinstein Hall of Famer

DrDawkinstein

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5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Yes McD didnt do well in the AFCCG but yesterday he went for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0.  If anything AFCCG was the aberration.  

 

Not sure about that. It seemed to continue in the Steelers game which contributed to the loss.

 

And finally finding the guts to go for it when you are up 21-0 doesnt instill much confidence that he has it figured out.

 

Hoping he does as the season goes on.

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Mr. WEO Hall of Famer

Mr. WEO

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23 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation.  It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs.  And I believe McDermott makes the same call there.

 

 

lol, what situation?  The 2 Chiefs possessions before that Ravens 4th and 1?  Int and punt.

 

The Mahomes situation in the potential game winning drive AFTER the Ravens score.....fumble.

 

Ravnes D shut down the Chiefs for the entire 4th Q, so, no.

 

22 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yes, I think he absolutely does.

McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year.

 

 

 

This would have been his call...

 

 

 

 

 

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DrDawkinstein Hall of Famer

DrDawkinstein

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Just now, Chandler#81 said:

OP, I don’t know that Any HC has the stones to do that. “Lamar, you wanna go for this?” 
Maybe it was just a cute stunt in the thickness of the moment. No QB worth his salt would say ‘no coach, I don’t think we can make it..’

 

IMO, he already had the decision made when he asked Lamar. Asking Lamar was simply to motivate him to go get that yard. He knew what the answer was going to be, and already decided it was what he wanted to do.

 

Harbaugh, Belichick, and others make that decision. Probably pretty easily. I'm looking forward to McD growing into that type of HC.

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TheBrownBear Veteran

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5 minutes ago, elijah said:

Does McD need the guts to make the call Harbaugh made? 

 

I forget the exact scenario last night, but it was something like BAL ball on their own 40, KC with 0 timeouts with about a minute left

 

If Baltimore doesn’t get it, KC needs 5 yards for FG range and 15 for a ‘safe’ field goal. If Baltimore punts KC has about 50 seconds to go ~45-55 yards with no timeouts. 

 

This was more of a ballsy call than the right call in my opinion. If Baltimore doesn’t get this first that’s a head scratching play call with the Ravens almost certainly looking at 0-2. I’m all aboard the go for it on 4th down train, but that one was not one of the times I would’ve supported it. 

As far as I'm concerned, if you can definitively end the game with 1 yard, you take those odds (with some caveats, like if they had been in easy FG range to stretch the lead from 1 to 4 or something). 

 

So much of that decision came down to them having only a 1 point lead.  If it's a 3 point lead, he almost certainly punts, since you're highly unlikely to lose the game in regulation.

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2003Contenders Veteran

2003Contenders

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11 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not sure about that. It seemed to continue in the Steelers game which contributed to the loss.

 

And finally finding the guts to go for it when you are up 21-0 doesnt instill much confidence that he has it figured out.

 

Hoping he does as the season goes on.

Well, let's recall that McD DID go for it on 4th down multiple times in the Pittsburgh game. The Bills went 0-3 in those situations, which is more of a testimony to the poor play calling (especially on the pitch play) and execution than to McD lacking the stones to go for it. And, if the Bills convert on any one of those plays, then the outcome of that game may very well (and probably WOULD) have been different.

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DrDawkinstein Hall of Famer

DrDawkinstein

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5 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I believe that McD would make that call.
 

I also believe that most of you would crucify him if the offense failed to convert.  
 

The best calls are always the ones that work and hindsight is always 20-20.  

 

If its the exact same situation, and he calls a simple sneak with Josh... and we DONT make it, McD is the last on my list to be pissed at.

 

Then the focus turns to Morse and the OGs, and why they are unable to pick up 3 simple feet with a 6'5" beast taking the snap.

 

But yes, you are right, there will be people here who complain about it either way. Can't please everyone, and folks on the internet LOVE to be right in hindsight :thumbsup:

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YattaOkasan Veteran

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17 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not sure about that. It seemed to continue in the Steelers game which contributed to the loss.

 

And finally finding the guts to go for it when you are up 21-0 doesnt instill much confidence that he has it figured out.

 

Hoping he does as the season goes on.

Hmm... he had a couple of 4th and shorts in the FIRST half that he didnt go for.  I think thats a slightly different conversation than 4th quarter game on the line. 

 

Additionally he did go for it 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter up 10-6.  That was the Sutton play that gave the ball in mid field, and Pitt turned that short field into a TD.  I dont know how win probabilities change but I assume first half aggression is less meaningful than second half.

 

Do you still think his lack of aggression in the first half of that game contributed to the loss when compared to his willingness to do so in the second half?

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YattaOkasan Veteran

YattaOkasan

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1 minute ago, OrediggerPoke said:

4th and 1 with the game on the line….I call a Josh Allen naked boot and let him be you know Josh Allen.  If the corner stays home, that poor guy is going to get blasted.  

4th and 1 I give Allen the ball on a sneak.  He has a crazy good success rate on those plays.  But yes let Josh be Josh.

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DrDawkinstein Hall of Famer

DrDawkinstein

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15 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Hmm... he had a couple of 4th and shorts in the FIRST half that he didnt go for.  I think thats a slightly different conversation than 4th quarter game on the line. 

 

Additionally he did go for it 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter up 10-6.  That was the Sutton play that gave the ball in mid field, and Pitt turned that short field into a TD.  I dont know how win probabilities change but I assume first half aggression is less meaningful than second half.

 

Do you still think his lack of aggression in the first half of that game contributed to the loss when compared to his willingness to do so in the second half?

 

Indeed, that is what I was referring to. The calls earlier in the game that would have likely sustained drives and gotten us points, so we go into halftime 16-0 or even 17-0.  Dont wait until the 4th quarter to find the killer instinct. Put them away early and keep your foot on their throat, imo.

 

By the 2nd half it was too late. Glad he FINALLY decided to go for it, but at that point they were playing not to lose.

 

edit: Half of this post was inspired by the specific situation. Late in the game, up by 1 point, against KC. But the other half was inspired by using your 6'5" STALLION to pick up 3 feet, anytime and every time, regardless of the situation. Should be an easy, automatic call. To the point the Offense should have a hot call, where if it's 3rd and short or 4th and short, Josh is yelling something and everyone knows to line up quick and go on the silent count. For examples, see: The Patriots Dynasty.

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YattaOkasan Veteran

YattaOkasan

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Indeed, that is what I was referring to. The calls earlier in the game that would have likely sustained drives and gotten us points, so we go into halftime 16-0 or even 17-0.  Dont wait until the 4th quarter to find the killer instinct. Put them away early and keep your foot on their throat, imo.

 

By the 2nd half it was too late. Glad he FINALLY decided to go for it, but at that point they were playing not to lose.

K I disagree that First half is killer instinct time, but understand the logic.  He was really good last year.  He was good yesterday.  I dont think not going for it during those two times CONTRIBUTED to the loss to Pitt.  Our offense wasn't looking too good (see the countless posts on Josh allen regression 2021) so I don't have a qualm with those decisions.  Again first half and only mid field for both of those.

 

Do you think we should have gone for it from 4 and 5+ but inside the 10?  I have more of a bone to pick with those (especially the one in the 4th quarter) than the two 4th and 1s in the first half.  

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TH3 Veteran

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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

1:00 left, 4th and 1...

 

Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")?

 

 

 

Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose.

 

We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1.

 

I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense.

Didn't he get roasted for going for it last week with a super aggressive 4 and 1 play that lost 5 yards? 

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