Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

We’re taking about his entire season, not just how he looked at times.

 

Oh, My Bad.  I thought we were talking about how Allen has looked in 2 games this season, so cherry-picking other seasons seemed fair

 

 

 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, My Bad.  I thought we were talking about how Allen has looked in 2 games this season, so cherry-picking other seasons seemed fair

 

 

 

At what point is it not cherry picking? Three games in a row? Four?

[Bangarang]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, My Bad.  I thought we were talking about how Allen has looked in 2 games this season, so cherry-picking other seasons seemed fair

 

 

 

The question was whether Allen would be considered elite if his play and numbers were the same as 2019 but we won the SB. 
 

My answer to that is no. While Allen may have looked elite at times in 2019, his overall body of work that year wasn’t consistently great enough to be considered among the league’s elite.
 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Bangarang

[appoo]

He's been off, but he started to look a little more himself during the 2nd half. 

 

Give him a chance to review, work, fix and perform again. 

 

He is human after all. We all work around a mean, and by statistical definition, a human being will perform below the average

[OrediggerPoke]

Stats are for losers.  

[Logic]

One of the seven least efficient QBs in the leaguethrough two weeks. He is not in good company. 😳

 

 

[Tenhigh]

42 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

This isn’t about style points. Like, at all. It’s about actually being good. I don’t need Josh to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs. 

 

The point, which I thought I’ve been clear about, is that this team isn’t going to be competing for a SB if Allen and the offense are just a repeat of their 2019 season. 

 

I don't think we will compete for a SB if we try to replicate 2020 either.  The approach should be more balanced and less 1 dimensionsal.

[dave mcbride]

The lofted pass to McKenzie was bad, but I wonder if that was the product of the bullet that sailed badly over the head of an open Singletary earlier in the game. That would have been a 25-30 yard gain. Point is, he seems to lack confidence in his velocity. The 3rd and 1 play last week that was lofted and defensed should have been on a rope, but it came shortly after the low-arc bomb that sailed over Sanders. Might that earlier miss caused him to lose faith in his deep-rope accuracy?

A couple of nice things to see, however: the short TD pass to Diggs yesterday was peak Allen--a really strong throw on a busted play--and the late bomb to Diggs was something I've been militating for for a while: a bomb with air under it that gives the player the time needed to adjust to it and make a play. The early deep throw to Sanders was great, although that's one of those throws that he's bound to occasionally complete due to the law of averages. That was a pretty typical deep throw by Allen, and he misses a lot of those. Anyway, there were some good things with the bad yesterday. To me, the main issue has been consistency with regard to accuracy and velocity/arc choice as well as platform mechanics. I suspect he'll get it sorted out before too long. We all know he's capable of being a consistently elite producer. 

[Bangarang]

2 hours ago, Tenhigh said:

I don't think we will compete for a SB if we try to replicate 2020 either.  The approach should be more balanced and less 1 dimensionsal.

Lol what? We literally were 1 game away from the SB with that model. 

We didn’t need to revamp how we do things because it obviously worked. The biggest weakness we had was our defense’s inability to get pressure without sending extra guys.
 

You add a few guys who can do that and if the offense continues it’s play from last year we are without a doubt in the hunt for a SB.  

Edited September 20, 2021 by Bangarang

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The lofted pass to McKenzie was bad, but I wonder if that was the product of the bullet that sailed badly over the head of an open Singletary earlier in the game. That would have been a 25-30 yard gain. Point is, he seems to lack confidence in his velocity. The 3rd and 1 play last week that was lofted and defensed should have been on a rope, but it came shortly after the low-arc bomb that sailed over Sanders. Might that earlier miss caused him to lose faith in his deep-rope accuracy?

 

I really think he has been over coached on touch passes, or maybe he is too hard on himself about it. It's like someone told him he should throw with touch on longer passes and now he's thinking about it too much. If the receiver is running in a straight line then yes touch is the way to go, but if the receiver is stopping or coming back he needs to gun it in there. This is a really simple fix and throwing with not enough velocity has never been a problem for Allen until now, so I'm confident it will be corrected. Even the throw to Sanders that he hit on the money wasn't really a touch throw, he just threw a perfectly accurate rope. I would rather he just stick with that even if it means sometimes missing deeper throws if it also means he hits the intermediate throws he never missed last hear.

 

Allen is at his best when he doesn't have to think too much. Both of his TD passes he didn't have time to think because he was running for his life. I want to see Daboll move the pocket more like we saw last year.  Put Allen in a position where he doesn't have to worry as much about pocket pressure or think about his mechanics.

[Bangarang]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The lofted pass to McKenzie was bad, but I wonder if that was the product of the bullet that sailed badly over the head of an open Singletary earlier in the game. That would have been a 25-30 yard gain. Point is, he seems to lack confidence in his velocity. The 3rd and 1 play last week that was lofted and defensed should have been on a rope, but it came shortly after the low-arc bomb that sailed over Sanders. Might that earlier miss caused him to lose faith in his deep-rope accuracy?

A couple of nice things to see, however: the short TD pass to Diggs yesterday was peak Allen--a really strong throw on a busted play--and the late bomb to Diggs was something I've been militating for for a while: a bomb with air under it that gives the player the time needed to adjust to it and make a play. The early deep throw to Sanders was great, although that's one of those throws that he's bound to occasionally complete due to the law of averages. That was a pretty typical deep throw by Allen, and he misses a lot of those. Anyway, there were some good things with the bad yesterday. To me, the main issue has been consistency with regard to accuracy and velocity/arc choice as well as platform mechanics. I suspect he'll get it sorted out before too long. We all know he's capable of being a consistently elite producer. 

So far this year, Josh is 4/17 on passes that travel 15 or more yards in the air. Small sample size but that’s obviously pretty bad. 

[Coach Tuesday]

This is a bizarre thread.  Is anyone actually arguing that Allen is playing well?  If so I must've missed it. It seems like everyone agrees that he's off - but there are folks who would like to start panicking now, and then the rest of us.

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

So far this year, Josh is 4/17 on passes that travel 15 or more yards in the air. Small sample size but that’s obviously pretty bad. 

Does that include the throwaways that go out of the EZ? I'm less concerned with the completion percentage (although it's certainly a decent proxy) than with the accuracy percentage. One of those throws was to Sanders in the Pitt game and accurate, although the defender (Pierre) was in position to make a play on it immediately (and did). The lofted throws to McKenzie and Diggs were both accurate, although they resulted in incompletions because they shouldn't have been lofted. But yeah, a bunch of off-target throws so far.  On a few, the coverage has been good enough to cause an incomletion. 

[teef]

9 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

This is a bizarre thread.  Is anyone actually arguing that Allen is playing well?  If so I must've missed it. It seems like everyone agrees that he's off - but there are folks who would like to start panicking now, and then the rest of us.

agreed.  i don't think anyone feels he's ok at this point, but we're in game 2 of a 17 game season.  one game at a time, get as many wins as possible, and give this ***** a chance to play out.  i'm not worried...yet.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

One of the seven least efficient QBs in the leaguethrough two weeks. He is not in good company. 😳

 

 

Brady has been a monster this season.

 

Loooks like Allen is below Ryan, Winston, and Wentz

[Success]

Anyone remember how the board felt after we lost to KC and TN last season?

 

It's just so early.  After so many years of the internet & so many sports shows on TV and radio, it has become very easy to recognize and identify hot takes.  Concern about Allen in general is something I would file under that category, because it's been 2 games, and we won the last one by 35 points.

 

If it's late October and we're still seeing the same thing, sure.  

 

[Tenhigh]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Lol what? We literally were 1 game away from the SB with that model. 

We didn’t need to revamp how we do things because it obviously worked. The biggest weakness we had was our defense’s inability to get pressure without sending extra guys.
 

You add a few guys who can do that and if the offense continues it’s play from last year we are without a doubt in the hunt for a SB.  

We got our butts handed to us in the AFC Championship game on BOTH sides of the ball, on offense partly because our scheme was 1 dimensional.   If we can establish the threat of a real run game instead of just praying that Allen plays out of his mind, that opens this team up for a real shot at a championship.   It also makes Allen's life easier.

[CincyBillsFan]

19 minutes ago, Success said:

Anyone remember how the board felt after we lost to KC and TN last season?

 

It's just so early.  After so many years of the internet & so many sports shows on TV and radio, it has become very easy to recognize and identify hot takes.  Concern about Allen in general is something I would file under that category, because it's been 2 games, and we won the last one by 35 points.

 

If it's late October and we're still seeing the same thing, sure.  

 

Well said.  And in the Miami game the offense was efficient and scored 5 TD's on 5 decent drives including a knockout blow right out of the looker room after halftime.

 

[Gugny]

39 minutes ago, NJKBillsfan said:

 

What gives you so much confidence that he'll turn it around?

 

 

Because he's proven, for three years, that once he's aware of shortcomings, he works diligently to improve.  I'm not sure why he seems to have reverted, but I really do feel that he'll make consistent forward strides and he and the team will be just fine.

[AuntieEm]

18 hours ago, Figster said:

Most of the starters had very little game play through the preseason. What are you suggesting? Allens regressing? Getting the O into the right plays to succeed including run plays is a big part of a QB's job. Buffalo won 35 - 0 and Josh Allen ran the O that accomplished it. 

           

       He also made some td passes without forcing the ball but because he isn't posting higher fantasy winning stats fans are saying he regressed. 2 of 17 games not even a quarter of season played.  We have a nice new pass rush that looks like it can  really grow with interesting potential.  I'm not buying many of the teams we will play still this season will have the defense capable of shutting down Josh and this offense not to mention that team would need an equally skilled offense to get by our so far stellar defense.

 

    Early yet but we got the horses now to maintain a rotation that allows for resting players that max need it during season.  Bills have invested heavily in maintaining the right blend of recovery specialists to keep players in peak condition. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by AuntieEm
Corrections

[JohnNord]

If you take the 2nd quarter out of the mix yesterday, Allen ended up with a decent day.  

[Bangarang]

31 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

We got our butts handed to us in the AFC Championship game on BOTH sides of the ball, on offense partly because our scheme was 1 dimensional.   If we can establish the threat of a real run game instead of just praying that Allen plays out of his mind, that opens this team up for a real shot at a championship.   It also makes Allen's life easier.

We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

[Mikie2times]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No offense (see what I did there?  heh) but generally speaking when someone picks a non-standard grouping to analyze, it's a sign of cherrypicking data to prove a point.  Why not pick the last 4 regular season games, or the last 8 regular season games? 

 

I expect you could pick a couple 4 week windows in 2020 and argue that Josh Allen is looking like 2019 Josh Allen.

Try week 3-6 or week 4-8

 

 

 

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point. Exclude last year if you wish. Call it 2021 (yes only two games), but how many franchise QB's forget how to read the field for consecutive games? At least 3 consecutive if you get snug with data? Not relevant and overly fit when you can't make your progressions? He doesn't know where to go with the football right now. I put the issue just as much on Daboll as Josh. If we can develop a run game perhaps teams will stop treating us like the 90's Bills, maybe this time we decide to run Thurman. Right now teams have our offense mapped and we just keep walking right into it. It's a problem with Josh and Daboll and it is not a sample size issue. It will 100% continue unless something changes based on the nature of the problem.   

 

 

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't think the Baltimore, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Miami defenses had anything to do with this?

 

Those were last year's #2, #3, #6 and #11 defenses. This year's opponents were #3 and #6. That's a very high level pair we've faced so far this year.

 

IMO the answers are simple, but not easy, to steal from Marv. Stop killing yourself with penalties. Figure out how to adapt to what they're doing to us. Play with discipline and attention to detail.

 

 

 

I suppose we shouldn't say the defense has excelled because they played two bottom third offenses going on three after Washington? That's not true. They really are this good. It doesn't work both ways 

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by KzooMike

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

 

That's part of it, especially that last.  As far as the O-line, I would say Allen's aggressivness instead of taking what the D gave him and possibly the game plan (maybe by then it was too late for anything else) were strong contributors - not to be interpreted as saying the O-line wasn't a big factor, but I think the game plan and the read choices did  hang them out to dry a bit

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Eh… Feliciano got ran over the entire game, regardless of Allen hanging onto the ball. 

 

If the Chiefs had to worry even a little bit about a run game and misdirection, Chris Jones couldn't pin his ears back and run over Feliciano.

 

If Allen were taking some of the short dump-offs, the ball would be gone before he got there.  I saw Singletary and sometimes Knox with enough green around them to plant a sod farm and harvest it.  Why?  Because it was on tape all season that Allen couldn't or wouldn't take those throws, so defend the guys he does seek.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, NJKBillsfan said:

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think 2019 is as low as Josh can go and that's good enough to certainly be a playoff QB. He's a talented player even when he's not making his reads. That said, I do think a lot is up for debate as far as if we just caught lightning in a bottle in 2020 and if he can be that type of player/we can be that type of offense. It's not as if teams were game planning for Josh outside of mobility last year, certainly not for the greatest show on turf offense. Teams blitzed us a lot last year, which is a huge mistake against Josh. It tips the coverage and minuses a defender that he usually matadors. He is being contained in the pocket. His sideline escape ropes are not as available. Teams are dropping a lot of players in coverage and using a base 4 man rush to sort of contain and crash the pocket. They aren't being as reckless with the rush. So far they are getting home. 

 

I think the solution is in the run game probably more than it is even Josh. I don't know if Josh was ever supposed to be like 2020. He's incredible out of playaction. It gives him natural timing. I posted this thread because you can see when a QB has a bad game or if it's a sign of something more serious in my opinion just based on how fast and decisive his reads are. Josh has been 100% indecisive thus far. Pat, pat, pat, back foot throw. Again, is it his fault if he's throwing into 7-8 players each down? Was the Daboll unbalanced air show supposed to last forever or does Josh and this team in general require more balance?  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point.

 

There are phenomena called "Recency Bias" and "Confirmation Bias" which are common fallacies.

 

The idea is that people have a conclusion, and then look for evidence that confirms their conclusion; they also look at what they've heard or seen recently, and weight it far more strongly than what they may have heard or seen in the past.

 

In other words, without context and care, our eyes can "trick" us.

 

I'm respectfully suggesting that may be at play here, at least to some extent.

 

 

[White Linen]

Daboll looks like Roman.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There are phenomena called "Recency Bias" and "Confirmation Bias" which are common fallacies.

 

The idea is that people have a conclusion, and then look for evidence that confirms their conclusion; they also look at what they've heard or seen recently, and weight it far more strongly than what they may have heard or seen in the past.

 

In other words, without context and care, our eyes can "trick" us.

 

I'm respectfully suggesting that may be at play here, at least to some extent.

 

 

We also have euphoria which often leads to disillusionment. I explained why I think this will last more than once. I don't want to be correct in that statement and I hope we don't see it play out that way. So I guess we really don't have much else to discuss on the topic. 

5 minutes ago, White Linen said:

Daboll looks like Roman.

Actually pretty funny you put it that way but I agree 100%. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

Last years schedule was weak?  Allen and the Bills were 3 - 1 against the NFC West with their only loss being the Hail Murry and Allen shined in all four games.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

I have a feeling Allen won’t reach his peak until he’s like 33 years old.  He’s young and has a lot of sugar high still in him…age will naturally settle him down.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I guess we will see when the all-22 comes out. But I am pretty sure I am right and you are only focusing on the misses. He made some poor throws, for sure. But I think we will see that he made some great ones and that the receivers were pretty much blanketed in tight man coverage all game. 
 

Overall, my sense is that it’s some rust by him (and the other offensive skill players) and the offensive coaches still trying to get into a groove. 

 

Glad to know I'm not the only one Jonesing for the all-22

 

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, White Linen said:

Daboll looks like Roman.

In what way? 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Last years schedule was weak?  Allen and the Bills were 3 - 1 against the NFC West with their only loss being the Hail Murry and Allen shined in all four games.

 

 

I’m sure you know prior to the season strength of schedule comes out based on upcoming opponents and their records the prior year.  Last year prior to the entrance of the season, we had a SOS as 5th hardest in the NFL.  Post season looking back based on how these teams finished we had the 15th hardest SOS.  The reason these SOS are so marginal in importance is you can’t account fir injuries, etc. like the 49ers who lost so many key players just prior or in the beginning of the season.  They were in the darn SB the previous year.  We didn't have a weak schedule.

 

We had a middle of the pack schedule.  We played 6 of the top 10 defenses last year and beat all of them in the season or the playoffs.  I’ll agree Allen is off these first two games, but to rewrite last year as Allen was only good because he played easy teams is silly, and not true.  Bottom line is I haven’t read any real reason why Allen is off other than he’s in a slump for whatever reason.  It happens in baseball all the time.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, KzooMike said:

We also have euphoria which often leads to disillusionment. I explained why I think this will last more than once. I don't want to be correct in that statement and I hope we don't see it play out that way. So I guess we really don't have much else to discuss on the topic.

 

Oh, for sure - preseason we were hearing a lot of "Josh Allen is God" "MVP" etc.  I could be wrong, though, but I don't think the euphoric now-disillusioned types are the ones who are over-the-top critical now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 9/19/2021 at 6:40 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

He looks unsure of himself. Could be new defensive looks. Could be bad play calls. He's also missing throws he should make easily. Not panic mode but definitely one eyebrow raised.

 

I dunno about "unsure of himself" but he's definitely missing some throws he made last year.  And, he made several "bad decison" throws in the Miami game.

 

On the other hand I just re-watched and charted the 1st Q of the Dolphins game and I don't know where all these "wide open receivers" and "no pressure at all" I've seen some people talking about. 

 

I kind of feel like watching the first 2 Bills games is a "Rashoman" viewing where different people are watching the same game and coming away with different accounts, all of which we feel very certain about.
 

Here's my breakdown of the first half:

1Q passes:  8.  4 complete - 3 no pressure, 1 pressure

                         4 incomplete: 2 poor throws - one high to a covered Diggs (no pressure), one a poor decision that was damned near picked (strong pressure, hit as he threw).  2 throw-aways under pressure                    

                        

So of the 8 passes, there was 1 that he should have completed and didn't

There was 1 poor decision that he should have hung on to or thrown away and didn't.

 

2Q passes: 8.  3 complete,  quick short passes

                        4 incomplete:  1 throwaway under pressure.  1 batted pass under pressure.  1 pass thrown high with enough time, 1 rushed throw

                        1 interception - threw slightly behind Diggs. 

 

So of the 8 passes, there was 1 that he should have completed and didn't and 1 poor decision (the INT).  There were 3 throw aways/bats/rushed throws.

 

Total in the first half: 2 passes he should have completed - had time and an open man - and didn't, 2  poor decisions under pressure one resulting in a pick.  4 throw-aways/batted balls under pressure.

 

IMO we would never have seen the throw-aways in 2018 and seldom in 2019.  We would also not have seen the quick short completions.

Last year out of 16 passes, I would say there were 2, maybe 3, he would have hit last year that he missed Sunday.  So instead of 7/16, we would have seen 9/16 or 10/16 which is better, but nowhere near last year's completion percentage.

 

Is there room for improvement and need for improvement?  Yes. But am I seeing  OMG he's got lots of time and he's just missing guys right and left? No.

 

Another telling stat: I looked up the "Pocket Time" stat in Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats.  They define this as average time the QB had in the pocket between snap and throw, or snap and collapse of the pocket.

In 2020: 2.6 seconds

So far in 2021: 1.2 seconds

I think it's possible that may have something to do with what we're seeing.

 

                        

PS this is  a total PITA to do with the new GamePass interface that doesn't list the plays so I cant just click and go to that play.  Grrrr.

 

 

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Wouldn't you have to watch the game film to know for sure? 

The Raiders just put up 26 on Pittsburgh.

 

Can we stop with the excuses? 

What gives you so much confidence that he'll turn it around?

 

That wasn't the same Pittsburg defense.

[Tenhigh]

11 hours ago, Bangarang said:

We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

Partly, yes.  The fact that we put up no pretense of a running game didn't help either. 

[njbuff]

Simple.

 

Allen has a bullseye on his back.

 

If you think Allen is struggling, look no further than to Cole Beasley, who has, shockingly, struggled to get open.

 

I’m not panicked in the least.

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Look at the last 6 games.

Chargers 7-9

49ers 6-10

Denver 5-11

Pittsburgh  Was completely falling apart at the end of the year

And Miami and the Pats weren't great. 

Miami was 10 - 6 and the Pats are the Pats. 

 

And when talking about the entire season there are more then the last 6 games.

 

Also a team may be bad but still have a very good defense - like Denver & SF.

 

As I recall both the Rams & Seahawks were very good playoff teams that Allen eviscerated.