Bills FA Strategy - Bargain Hunting

[Weatherman]

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

[Nester]

Agree.

 

 

[NewEra]

Could be right.  If that’s the case, I just hope we don’t spend 8-10M on the next Mario Addison, Star or Trent murphy.   It’s ok to get the 2nd tier guys.....as long as they don’t suck.  We have to get production from them.  It worked great with Hyde and Poyer a few years ago (although they didn’t wait to sign them, they just didn’t pay a lot).

 

if we don’t add a Houston, Dunlap, Reddick, Clowney or Kerrigan, I’ll be worried that we didn’t do enough to address the pass rush.
 

if we go spend some money or rd 1-2 draft pick on a corner, I’ll be happy though.  Levi should go and be replaced with an athlete that can hit, run and be physical.  I truly feel that he was a big part of our problem on d.  Not because  he can’t play zone.....but because he can’t play man.  We need to have the ability to be versatile on both sides of the ball.  Last year we were completely one dimensional in both sides of the ball.....and that’s why we got blown out in the AFCCG imo.

[Green Lightning]

6 minutes ago, Nester said:

Agree.

 

 

Overpaid or not, NE has added considerable talent in all the areas needed to exploit our soft run D and TE coverage, to go along with our weak push rush. Let's hope our bargain signings can keep pace . 

[H2o]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Could be right.  If that’s the case, I just hope we don’t spend 8-10M on the next Mario Addison, Star or Trent murphy.   It’s ok to get the 2nd tier guys.....as long as they don’t suck.  We have to get production from them.  It worked great with Hyde and Poyer a few years ago (although they didn’t wait to sign them, they just didn’t pay a lot).

 

if we don’t add a Houston, Dunlap, Reddick, Clowney or Kerrigan, I’ll be worried that we didn’t do enough to address the pass rush.
 

if we go spend some money or rd 1-2 draft pick on a corner, I’ll be happy though.  Levi should go and be replaced with an athlete that can hit, run and be physical.  I truly feel that he was a big part of our problem on d.  Not because  he can’t play zone.....but because he can’t play man.  We need to have the ability to be versatile on both sides of the ball.  Last year we were completely one dimensional in both sides of the ball.....and that’s why we got blown out in the AFCCG imo.

Kerrigan is the guy I'd like to have in the fold tbh. Yes he's 32, but played only 397 snaps last year and still put up 5.5 sacks. He could easily replicate a Lawson type of production. If he comes at the right price then I would sign him. 

[Eastport bills]

Big splashy signings, by talent deprived teams day one or two have fans worried there will be limited options for us,

but this is a different year. There's plenty of inventory and limited cap space. Beane will get an edge and a back guaranteed. 

[Bob in Mich]

I put this post in the wrong thread. When I saw this thread title I realized it belongs here. Sorry for duplication 

................

 

Say you need a new coat before next winter.  You go to your favorite coat emporium and they are having one of those sales where the coats are 10% off this week, 20% off next week, and so on up to 80% off in June.  

 

If you fall fall in love with a particular coat you may be tempted to buy it at only 10% off.  If you are patient and realize that most all of the coats will keep you warm, you wait it out.

 

So, must we have one of these coats before it gets snapped up by other shoppers or will the bargain coats work for our remaining needs?  Seems to me like we are waiting for the less flashy, functional players..... on the cheap when those players start to get nervous that they may not find a chair once the music stops

Edited March 16, 2021 by Bob in Mich

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Big splashy signings, by talent deprived teams day one or two have fans worried there will be limited options for us,

but this is a different year. There's plenty of inventory and limited cap space. Beane will get an edge and a back guaranteed. 

“An edge”——-we got “an edge” last year named Mario Addison. Let’s hope we get a better one this year

[Weatherman]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Enough? Or anything to address the pass rush? 

Scotty doesn’t know...patience is a virtue.

[Eastport bills]

Just now, NewEra said:

“An edge”——-we got “an edge” last year named Mario Addison. Let’s hope we get a better one this year

We whiffed on every defensive FA signing and still competed for a championship. Can you imagine if we actually got someone who made an impact.

[nucci]

24 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

Why do you say this? Teams seem to be able to sign who they want? Most likely this years cap number is small then increasing next season. I guess it's ok when Bills sign players to big contracts but not other teams?

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Enough? Or anything to address the pass rush? 

Enough to address the pass rush.  We still need a WR and CB......and we still haven’t upgraded the run game at all.  Still lots of work to do imo

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

4 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Big splashy signings, by talent deprived teams day one or two have fans worried there will be limited options for us,

but this is a different year. There's plenty of inventory and limited cap space. Beane will get an edge and a back guaranteed. 

 

I'm more worried about Thuney to Chiefs and Dupree to Titans. That's 2 of the top teams in the AFC signing 2 of the best FAs. 

 

Spotrac says the Bills have 10 mm in estimated cap space (although I don't see Feliciano on there). With available cap space we could barely afford a WR2 let alone the rest of what OP was hoping we'd sign. Beane's "splash" was keeping Milano, Williams, and Feliciano. 

[Weatherman]

Just now, nucci said:

Why do you say this? Teams seem to be able to sign who they want? Most likely this years cap number is small then increasing next season. I guess it's ok when Bills sign players to big contracts but not other teams?

Most teams are kicking the can down the road.  I think next year the Chiefs are going to be in a world of hurt, same with Tampa, Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, etc.  Beane is playing it smart which is being confused with being cheap / conservative.  

[nucci]

Just now, Weatherman said:

Most teams are kicking the can down the road.  I think next year the Chiefs are going to be in a world of hurt, same with Tampa, Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, etc.  Beane is playing it smart which is being confused with being cheap / conservative.  

Yet teams seem to find ways around the cap every year

[Weatherman]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

A world of hurt? Haven’t you realized the cap is incredibly manipulative? They’ll be fine. 

Like the Saints or Cheats last year.  Scotty Doesn’t Know! 

2 minutes ago, nucci said:

Yet teams seem to find ways around the cap every year

They are pushing all their chips into the middle of the table to win a SB this year.  I don’t think the Bills are ready to push quite yet.  

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

 

They are pushing all their chips into the middle of the table to win a SB this year.  I don’t think the Bills are ready to push quite yet.  

The Bills aren't pushing to win a SB this year?

[Governor]

Perhaps we should accept that we won’t have a physical top 5 defense and load up on offense from here on out.

 

Fill CB2 in free agency.

Draft offense and Star’s replacement.

Edited March 16, 2021 by The Governor

[BillsVet]

3 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

They are pushing all their chips into the middle of the table to win a SB this year.  I don’t think the Bills are ready to push quite yet.  

 

Did you hear what the team el presidente said? 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/why-bills-owner-kim-pegula-believes-2020-was-just-the-floor

[Eastport bills]

10 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I'm more worried about Thuney to Chiefs and Dupree to Titans. That's 2 of the top teams in the AFC signing 2 of the best FAs. 

 

Spotrac says the Bills have 10 mm in estimated cap space (although I don't see Feliciano on there). With available cap space we could barely afford a WR2 let alone the rest of what OP was hoping we'd sign. Beane's "splash" was keeping Milano, Williams, and Feliciano. 

Always have options for freeing up capspace. Haven't even considered restructuring Diggs, White and cutting Star.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

31 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

 

I agree on TE and back up O line, one player, likely a tackle.  WR think will be in the draft as will another O-lineman,  For punter IMO will either be Bojo or draft pick, but likely will sign some lower level FA punter for training camp

 

DE, the barn is full so to bring in another means letting one of current players go and can they afford to let a guy like Johnson or Zimmer on cheap contracts go.  They have a total of 8 D lineman that played a fair amount last year plus Star.  Can't see them going with more than 9 total.  I didn't think they'd sign Addison to an extension unless there were no better options. 

 

RB could see them going either for a backup to fill Yeldons role, or they decide to go with three active RB if they go after a more starting type guy like some of the rumors about Hunt.  Unless they are going to try and trade one of the current two, do you want to give up on one of your last two seasons 3rd round draft picks. 

[dbfla10]

1 minute ago, Eastport bills said:

Always have options for freeing up capspace. Haven't even considered restructuring Diggs, White and cutting Star.

There is no reason to cut star. The cap hit is there whether he is on the team or not.

[Mat68]

Go back a few years.  This will closer resemble Mcdermotts first offseason.  No big names but I expect 1 middle level FA and the rest lower tier depth guys.  Patriots are spending like a team desperate.  Overpaying for alotnof guys.  It looks to be like one last stand for Bill.  Im not that concerned.  If they pull off Watson or Wilson I will change my tune, but as of now they are where we were 4 to 5 years ago.

[Weatherman]

17 minutes ago, nucci said:

The Bills aren't pushing to win a SB this year?

They are but they are not all in like the Chiefs and Bucs. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

16 minutes ago, dbfla10 said:

There is no reason to cut star. The cap hit is there whether he is on the team or not.

 

Star's dead cap exceeds his active cap so cutting him actually hurts our cap situation. We could ask Tre or Diggs to restructure, but I'm not sure how that would play out. Tre just signed his contract, and Diggs is already underpaid after his all pro season. 

 

We'd have to get very very creative with the cap to free up enough space to make an impact with FA. Beane hasn't shown that he's willing to do that. 

 

And that's OK. It's not the worst thing to "stay the course" with a team that went 13-3 with AFCCG appearance. 

 

Don't expect much of anything to happen in free agency though. 1 mid tier FA and a handful of depth guys seems likeliest. 

[billsfan89]

The Bills always had to be bargain hunters due to the cap crunch. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Weatherman said:

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

Beane has been clear repeatedly:  Free agency is for filling holes. He is always bargain hunting.  He isn't looking for difference makers. Happy to find one, but the draft is where he looks for difference makers. 

[ngbills]

52 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Enough? Or anything to address the pass rush? 

We got rid of two guys...

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Beane has been clear repeatedly:  Free agency is for filling holes. He is always bargain hunting.  He isn't looking for difference makers. Happy to find one, but the draft is where he looks for difference makers. 

Says Morse, Star, Murphy, Kroft, Addison, Butler, Jefferson. Not huge contracts but no bargain hunting. 

[CorkScrewHill]

57 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Big splashy signings, by talent deprived teams day one or two have fans worried there will be limited options for us,

but this is a different year. There's plenty of inventory and limited cap space. Beane will get an edge and a back guaranteed. 

It is great that we are no longer in the mode of needing to make big splashy signings to get fans interested. It is like the Bills and patriots have really and completely changed places (crappy QB and desperate FA signings vs great QB and measured FA signings). Oh it is finally good to be a Bills fan.

 

[Simon Says]

1 hour ago, Weatherman said:

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

Where are you getting all the money? Bills aren't signing a #2 WR or a #1 RB... and I think they try to keep Bojorquez ,McKenzie, and Boettger if they can free up cap space 

[offsides#76FredSmerlas]

59 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Enough to address the pass rush.  We still need a WR and CB......and we still haven’t upgraded the run game at all.  Still lots of work to do imo

Need a WR, not sure it is a huge need. Run game will improve by just having Star back and 2 healthy linebackers.  I do expect us to draft some help for the front 7 as well. 

[Solomon Grundy]

My Mom once told me she should have named me Clarence because I was so cheap 

[Eastport bills]

6 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

It is great that we are no longer in the mode of needing to make big splashy signings to get fans interested. It is like the Bills and patriots have really and completely changed places (crappy QB and desperate FA signings vs great QB and measured FA signings). Oh it is finally good to be a Bills fan.

 

That's a great comparison. I think this is a crucial off season though. Although the core is formidable, the positions of need must be addressed successfully. EDGE, TE, and a  running back, who makes defenses take focus away from Josh in the passing game.

[ngbills]

20 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Thought that was the point of this offseason... to get like th Chiefs and Bucs...

Folks still happy just competing for a playoff spot...

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Weatherman said:

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

WR2?  I think that is Gabe Davis.

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Offside#76FredSmerlas said:

Need a WR, not sure it is a huge need. Run game will improve by just having Star back and 2 healthy linebackers.  I do expect us to draft some help for the front 7 as well. 

If we go into the season with Diggs, Davis, Beasley and Hodgins as our top 4, I’ll be ready for heaven.  WR is a need.  That’s not to say we need a #2 wr or pay one big bucks....but we need another good wr on this team. I have no doubt that we will make that happen.  We’re a pass heavy offense and that isn’t likely to change very much.  One WR gets hurt and we’re in trouble.  We had Diggs, Cole, Brown and Davis vs the chiefs.....and no one could get open.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, The Governor said:

Perhaps we should accept that we won’t have a physical top 5 defense and load up on offense from here on out.

 

Fill CB2 in free agency.

Draft offense and Star’s replacement.

That's why we need to draft Etienne or Najee Harris with our top pick.  Our RB's are the epitome of mediocrity.  Get a stud in here and trade Singletary.  He is small and on the slow side.  Heck resign Yeldon and actually play him.  He has tread on his tires and is actually good.  

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

If we go into the season with Diggs, Davis, Beasley and Hodgins as our top 4, I’ll be ready for heaven.  WR is a need.  That’s not to say we need a #2 wr or pay one big bucks....but we need another good wr on this team. I have no doubt that we will make that happen.  We’re a pass heavy offense and that isn’t likely to change very much.  One WR gets hurt and we’re in trouble.  We had Diggs, Cole, Brown and Davis vs the chiefs.....and no one could get open.  

I think that Beasley and Davis were both playing hurt against KC and Brown had been out several Agnes with injury.

[Jerboski]

Just now, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's why we need to draft Etienne or Najee Harris with our top pick.  Our RB's are the epitome of mediocrity.  Get a stud in here and trade Singletary.  He is small and on the slow side.  Heck resign Yeldon and actually play him.  He has tread on his tires and is actually good.  

I’m hoping somehow we get etienne in second... long shot 

[Governor]

1 minute ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's why we need to draft Etienne or Najee Harris with our top pick.  Our RB's are the epitome of mediocrity.  Get a stud in here and trade Singletary.  He is small and on the slow side.  Heck resign Yeldon and actually play him.  He has tread on his tires and is actually good.  

Yeah, that may be the way to go.

 

RB

DT

WR

WR