Bills FA Strategy - Bargain Hunting

[NewEra]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

I think that Beasley and Davis were both playing hurt against KC and Brown had been out several Agnes with injury.

That’s kind of my point.....

 

if we’re counting on our top 3 WRs to stay healthy all season and in the playoffs, we’re not covering all of our bases.  We need better depth at WR.  Counting on Hodgins to be our 4th wr is like counting on Dane Jackson to be a starting corner imo.  Not a smart move.  We have no idea how good Hodgins will be.  

[BillsVet]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane has been clear repeatedly:  Free agency is for filling holes. He is always bargain hunting.  He isn't looking for difference makers. Happy to find one, but the draft is where he looks for difference makers. 

 

The Star and Morse contracts were big deals.  Brown, Beasley, Addison, Butler, Hyde (yes 2017) and Murphy were more mid-tier.

 

They've been no different than any other team in the era of McBeane.

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

That’s kind of my point.....

 

if we’re counting on our top 3 WRs to stay healthy all season and in the playoffs, we’re not covering all of our bases.  We need better depth at WR.  Counting on Hodgins to be our 4th wr is like counting on Dane Jackson to be a starting corner imo.  Not a smart move.  We have no idea how good Hodgins will be.  

Agreed that depth at WR is needed.  I don’t think we need starter level player there though.  Now, if you want to draft a slot WR that can be ready to replace Beasley when he retires, I could see doing that as early as round 2.

[Victory Formation]

2 hours ago, Weatherman said:

It’s become apparently obvious that this is the Bill approach to FA this year.   After the first day and 1/4 it looks like a majority of teams are at above or nearly capped out.  Only a couple teams still have more than $20M in space and no one wants to play for them unless they way over pay.

 

My forecast:  We won’t see any moves until day 3/4 when the deep discounts are available.  We will add a WR #2, DE rotation,  #1 RB, punter, OL rotation help, #2 TE. 
 

Sit back and enjoy watching teams hamstring themselves in a cap strapped year.  

I’m okay with this and I think you’re absolutely right.

[Alphadawg7]

How is this just now becoming obvious when it’s verbatim to what Beane said since the season ended?  His focus was on retaining our own and there wouldn’t be any real big splashy FA expenditures.  

Edited March 16, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Victory Formation]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

How is this just now becoming obvious when it’s verbatim to what Beane said since the season ended?  His focus was on retaining our own and there wouldn’t be any real big FA moves.

 

I

I actually think the Op showed quite a bit of insight. Many fans are expecting a big signing, but I’m not. Not saying we won’t make any moves, but I highly doubt we make a big one.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agreed that depth at WR is needed.  I don’t think we need starter level player there though.  Now, if you want to draft a slot WR that can be ready to replace Beasley when he retires, I could see doing that as early as round 2.

If Hodgins is in our plans at all....it’s in the slot.  That’s really all he can do.   We need explosive plauers that are a threat to go the distance.  Jmo

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I actually think the Op showed quite a bit of insight. Many fans are expecting a big signing, but I’m not. Not saying we won’t make any moves, but I highly doubt we make a big one.

Im just saying this was all stated by Beane long before FA.  Wasn’t more a point just at the OP, more a general comment to everyone who seem to still be in denial or shock we haven’t done anything. 

[Weatherman]

49 minutes ago, Georgie said:

Where are you getting all the money? Bills aren't signing a #2 WR or a #1 RB... and I think they try to keep Bojorquez ,McKenzie, and Boettger if they can free up cap space 

They will most likely be 1 year cheap deals. That’s the only way I see it happening unless the bills want to kick the can down the road on Diggs and Whites contracts 

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

Says Morse, Star, Murphy, Kroft, Addison, Butler, Jefferson. Not huge contracts but no bargain hunting. 

They're all role players, not core stars.   Sign ten, keep eight for a year, cut a couple, keep a few.  Whatever you call them, they aren't difference makers.    Morse is the one guy they might have thought would emerge as a true core player, but now I think they'd move him as soon as a better option came along.  

[Victory Formation]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im just saying this was all stated by Beane long before FA.  Wasn’t more a point just at the OP, more a general comment to everyone who seem to still be in denial or shock we haven’t done anything. 

I don’t believe a word that comes out of any GMs or coaches mouth.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Victory Formation said:

I don’t believe a word that comes out of any GMs or coaches mouth.

Yet Beane does exactly what he says year after year.  So, not believing him would be proven incorrect many times over at this point.  
 

So you can choose to not believe him, but it’s just making you incorrect in your expectations.  

[Weatherman]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

How is this just now becoming obvious when it’s verbatim to what Beane said since the season ended?  His focus was on retaining our own and there wouldn’t be any real big splashy FA expenditures.  

Because that’s what he said last year and he traded for a top 3 WR.  

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The Star and Morse contracts were big deals.  Brown, Beasley, Addison, Butler, Hyde (yes 2017) and Murphy were more mid-tier.

 

They've been no different than any other team in the era of McBeane.

As I just said about Morse, and I think it's true about Star, the Bills may have hoped they would emerge as core players for the Bills.  That is, they knew that these guys had potential to be difference makers, but they didn't expect them to be difference makers like they expected Diggs to be a difference maker.  They were guys who met the need at the position and might turn out to be more.  

 

I think McDermott expected Hyde to be what he became - the anchor for the defense.  I think Hyde was one of the exceptions to the rule - Hyde was expected to be a free agent difference maker.   Diggs, although not a free agent, was the other.   Brown, Beasley, Addison, Butler, Murphy, Feliciano, Williams, Norman, and plenty of others were all in hole-filler category, just like several other free agents who ultimately didn't make the team.   

 

Free agency is simply not where the Bills look for major talent, generally.   Watt would have been an exception.   So, what the Bills are doing/not doing in the free agent market shouldn't be a surprise, especially in a season when cap space is tight and the Bills had players they wanted to keep.  Why put yourself in a position to go replace a Williams or Milano in free agency why you already have the guy?

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Because that’s what he said last year and he traded for a top 3 WR.  

Why are we confusing trades with free agency?  Not the same thing at all.  In fee agency, Beane did exactly what he said he would do last year

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet Beane does exactly what he says year after year.  So, not believing him would be proven incorrect many times over at this point.  
 

So you can choose to not believe him, but it’s just making you incorrect in your expectations.  

I agree.  Beane may tell you everything he's thinking, but what he does tell you is what he's thinking about that particular subject.   I WAS fooled, however, when he talked about Milano going to test the market.   Usually when Beane says something like that, it means that the guy is gone.   It's what he said about Shaq last season, and Philips.   However, what probably happened this year is that Milano found out that the market wasn't nearly as attractive as he'd expected it to be. 

[Victory Formation]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet Beane does exactly what he says year after year.  So, not believing him would be proven incorrect many times over at this point.  
 

So you can choose to not believe him, but it’s just making you incorrect in your expectations.  

Sure, they may give you little tid bits to create media attention and fan interest but they’ll never really tip their hand in any way. Haven’t been to buffalobills.com in over a decade.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  Beane may tell you everything he's thinking, but what he does tell you is what he's thinking about that particular subject.   I WAS fooled, however, when he talked about Milano going to test the market.   Usually when Beane says something like that, it means that the guy is gone.   It's what he said about Shaq last season, and Philips.   However, what probably happened this year is that Milano found out that the market wasn't nearly as attractive as he'd expected it to be. 

Yeah, and Beane said he wanted him back, but it was Milano who wanted to test the market.  Beane was always interested in resigning him, and I think you are correct that Milano wasn’t seeing that much more in FA, so he chose to stay here and came to terms in the range Beane was comfortable with.  I mean it’s no secret the guys here now love this team and staff, so if Milano wasn’t gonna make much more there wasn’t an incentive to leave.

[BillsVet]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

As I just said about Morse, and I think it's true about Star, the Bills may have hoped they would emerge as core players for the Bills.  That is, they knew that these guys had potential to be difference makers, but they didn't expect them to be difference makers like they expected Diggs to be a difference maker.  They were guys who met the need at the position and might turn out to be more.  

 

I think McDermott expected Hyde to be what he became - the anchor for the defense.  I think Hyde was one of the exceptions to the rule - Hyde was expected to be a free agent difference maker.   Diggs, although not a free agent, was the other.   Brown, Beasley, Addison, Butler, Murphy, Feliciano, Williams, Norman, and plenty of others were all in hole-filler category, just like several other free agents who ultimately didn't make the team.   

 

Free agency is simply not where the Bills look for major talent, generally.   Watt would have been an exception.   So, what the Bills are doing/not doing in the free agent market shouldn't be a surprise, especially in a season when cap space is tight and the Bills had players they wanted to keep.  Why put yourself in a position to go replace a Williams or Milano in free agency why you already have the guy?

 

How many 50M DT's and 44M centers are not supposed to be "difference makers/core types" are there?  Those guys weren't exactly acquired to be spare parts. 

 

Lot of verbal gymnastics to differentiate between a safety who signed for 32M over 5 years in 2017 versus Star's deal in 2018 and Morse a year later.   

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Victory Formation said:

Sure, they may give you little tid bits to create media attention and fan interest but they’ll never really tip their hand in any way. Haven’t been to buffalobills.com in over a decade.

Well you should listen to Beane more, he’s been spot on every year on his plans.

[billsfan89]

51 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If we go into the season with Diggs, Davis, Beasley and Hodgins as our top 4, I’ll be ready for heaven.  WR is a need.  That’s not to say we need a #2 wr or pay one big bucks....but we need another good wr on this team. I have no doubt that we will make that happen.  We’re a pass heavy offense and that isn’t likely to change very much.  One WR gets hurt and we’re in trouble.  We had Diggs, Cole, Brown and Davis vs the chiefs.....and no one could get open.  

To be fair against KC, Brown was banged up all year, Beasley was hurt, Davis was hurt (he got hurt against the Ravens), and Diggs got dinged up early in the game. Hard to judge the WR corps on that game. I do agree the team needs to add a pass catcher but I wouldn’t consider the KC game without some context.

[Shaw66]

Just now, BillsVet said:

 

How many 50M DT's and 44M centers are not supposed to be "difference makers/core types" are there?  Those guys weren't exactly acquired to be spare parts. 

 

Lot of verbal gymnastics to differentiate between a safety who signed for 32M over 5 years in 2017 versus Star's deal in 2018 and Morse a year later.   

Fair enough about the verbal gymnastics.  Maybe I'm only reporting how the deals struck me, at the time or with hindsight.  

 

I was thrilled when the Bills signed Hyde.  I thought he was a star.  The Bills presumably paid top dollar for him, whatever the price, because those were the days when free agents weren't anxious to come to Buffalo.  In hindsight, it's pretty obvious that Hyde was an important piece, maybe the most important piece, to anchor the defense. 

 

Morse has underperformed, but I think the Bills knew there was a good chance he'd be no more than he's been.  He never was junkyard-dog-type interior lineman.  So, I don't think the Bills thought he was going to be a star - just a solid all-round type in the middle.   I won't be surprised if the Bills bring someone to camp to challenge him, and I wouldn't be surprised if Beane told you that he knew it was a real possibility two years ago. 

 

Star was a known commodity.   He wasn't going to be some super-stud difference maker in the middle.   He was going to be solid and a good presence in the locker room.  The Bills paid for that, but they didn't pay like they paid for Diggs.  

[Mat68]

I assume rb.  Older cb.  Either way they will be team fits no real splash guy.  

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

To be fair against KC, Brown was banged up all year, Beasley was hurt, Davis was hurt (he got hurt against the Ravens), and Diggs got dinged up early in the game. Hard to judge the WR corps on that game. I do agree the team needs to add a pass catcher but I wouldn’t consider the KC game without some context.

It's easy to forget how hobbled the Bills were against KC.   At receiver, and at running back. 

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane has been clear repeatedly:  Free agency is for filling holes. He is always bargain hunting.  He isn't looking for difference makers. Happy to find one, but the draft is where he looks for difference makers. 

 

well, his work on the DL has been awful.  Total non-impact players everywhere.  Not exactly "bargains" either.  

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's easy to forget how hobbled the Bills were against KC.   At receiver, and at running back. 

 

and at LB, DL, and OL.    

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

That’s kind of my point.....

 

if we’re counting on our top 3 WRs to stay healthy all season and in the playoffs, we’re not covering all of our bases.  We need better depth at WR.  Counting on Hodgins to be our 4th wr is like counting on Dane Jackson to be a starting corner imo.  Not a smart move.  We have no idea how good Hodgins will be.  

 

I'd like to see more McKenzie.  I think we are okay at WR.  McKenzie would be my top FA target, IMO given the cost and value there.  Draft another one in later rounds (Iowa kid looks great).  

[Weatherman]

38 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Why are we confusing trades with free agency?  Not the same thing at all.  In fee agency, Beane did exactly what he said he would do last year

Tomato, Tamato

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

well, his work on the DL has been awful.  Total non-impact players everywhere.  Not exactly "bargains" either.  

 

and at LB, DL, and OL.    

 

I'd like to see more McKenzie.  I think we are okay at WR.  McKenzie would be my top FA target, IMO given the cost and value there.  Draft another one in later rounds (Iowa kid looks great).  

I hope we bring mckenzie back too but as a WR, he’s another slot.  Like Hodgins. If Davis or Diggs go down, we don’t have a replacement on the outside 

.  That’s a problem 

[billsfan89]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's easy to forget how hobbled the Bills were against KC.   At receiver, and at running back. 

 

If Diggs and Davis weren't hurt that game is a lot more competitive, not saying the Bills win, but they are able to at least put up 10-14 more points when the game was competitive. I think people underestimate how much that impacted the game. 

[OldTimer1960]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I mean they beat us twice rather easily last season.... Do they have to beat us 3 times for the injury excuse get thrown away? 

I don’t think anyone is arguing that the team doesn’t need some WR depth beyond the starting 3.  However, I think the only path to a good WR who could step into the lineup seamlessly in case of injury is an early draft choice (this year).  I don’t think that they can reasonably afford to bring in a vet FA that fits that description this offseason.  Maybe I am wrong, but I think any significant FA $ is likely to be needed elsewhere (CB or DE I am thinking).

 

I am not necessarily saying to draft a WR in the first two rounds, but I could understand if they need to for quality cheap depth.

[Logic]

One of my favorite bargain options, FA WR John Ross, just signed with the Giants for $1M guaranteed. Darn it.

[ngbills]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

One of my favorite bargain options, FA WR John Ross, just signed with the Giants for $1M guaranteed. Darn it.

Though he was a decent inexpenive option as well. 

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Or you do the opposite. Bring in a good WR in FA(Curtis Samuel who is perfect for this offense) and go defense in the first few rounds....or simply BPA.

 

The pass rusher market is getting eaten up quickly. Not sure they are going to bring one in at this point considering the $$ needed and the questionable decision to bring old man Addison back for another year.

Agree that the pass rushers are drying up in FA.  I’m not sure that there will be a pass rusher whose value lines up with the Bills late first round pick, either.  
 

We are aligned that a vet WR, if affordable, would be valuable for depth at the position.  I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they can afford even a modest free agent signing.  Maybe they can...

[CaptnCoke11]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I hope we bring mckenzie back too but as a WR, he’s another slot.  Like Hodgins. If Davis or Diggs go down, we don’t have a replacement on the outside 

.  That’s a problem 

Most teams don’t 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Most teams don’t 

Most teams aren’t legit super bowl teams that can’t run the ball and rely solely on passing the ball.  

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, Logic said:

One of my favorite bargain options, FA WR John Ross, just signed with the Giants for $1M guaranteed. Darn it.

What has John Ross done in the NFL?  He caught 2 passes last season and has 51 total for his career.  I’m sure that as a high draft choice the Bengals gave him lots of opportunities to earn his way onto the field.

[Brennan Huff]

I was really expecting Beane to pull something out of his ass. I mean there’s definitely still time for something big to happen but I’m starting to get a little antsy

[ngbills]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What has John Ross done in the NFL?  He caught 2 passes last season and has 51 total for his career.  I’m sure that as a high draft choice the Bengals gave him lots of opportunities to earn his way onto the field.

Which is why he got a $2.5M deal with only $1M guaranteed. Worth the risk as a #3/#4 speed receiver. You can give it a year or even cut bait sooner and does not cost much. 

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, The Governor said:

Perhaps we should accept that we won’t have a physical top 5 defense and load up on offense from here on out.

 

Fill CB2 in free agency.

Draft offense and Star’s replacement.

Im all in on Pitts here. The next Antonio Gates. Drafting defense high rounds in this new nfl is a diminished return if you ask me. 

 

Defenses are just there to do varying levels of damage control, we need to get our points per game up, period. Our small receivers got jammed against KC, snag a guy whos open even when covered.  Hes an all over the field threat, and an absolute redzone terror. 

 

If we gotta part with some future draft capital, lets do it now while we have a chance to get over the hump.

 

Get some handshake agreements with  teams in the 5-12 slot and go after them aggressively, the way we had a handshake deal with Elway to go get Josh.

[BillsFanForever19]

14 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

I was really expecting Beane to pull something out of his ass. I mean there’s definitely still time for something big to happen but I’m starting to get a little antsy

 

I was hoping so too. But when he didn't make any other cuts or restructures (outside of the Matakevitch deal that make have saved 1.5 or so) - I kinda saw this coming. I think we're probably sitting at 8 mil total under the cap. Can't do much with that when you have to sign draft picks.

 

To be fair - he did tell everyone that we wouldn't be players in Free Agency and we'd be lucky to get our own back. He was able to pull that off, at least.

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I hope we bring mckenzie back too but as a WR, he’s another slot.  Like Hodgins. If Davis or Diggs go down, we don’t have a replacement on the outside 

.  That’s a problem 

 

come on, Duke Williams! I kid.  

 

I think we draft a WR for depth.  Would like an established outside guy.