Texans releasing JJ Watt

[JGMcD2]

20 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

In two years Watt is not going to be playing at a level that warrants the salary he is going to command now. This is a short term move, and pays off if he stays healthy and performs at the "elite" level you expect from him for a full season. I don't think that's hard to understand. Signing him is making a bet that he will, as you say, put them over the top. If he doesn't do that, it's a waste and distraction, and spends money that could be spent on, say, Milano, or some other younger player.

 

Nobody is (likely) signing Watt for more than two years - not sure how what we’re paying him these next two years has anything to do with the caliber of player he is when his contract would be up? Truthfully in free agency in any sport you’re always paying a player what they’re worth based on past production and not future production. That’s just how it works... 
 

In what world is it a distraction? The same world that Diggs was going to be a distraction?

Edited February 19, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Dr. K]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Well yes of course it's a risk. A lot of signings are risks.  But what do you expect? 

 

Them to basically sit on their hands and not take any risks? How do you expect the team to get better with that strategy? 

 

Of course I don't expect them to sit on their hands. That's a straw man argument. Any personnel decision is going to involve risk. I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt. 

 

We'll see what happens. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Nobody is (likely) signing Watt for more than two years - not sure how what we’re paying him these next two years has anything to do with the caliber of player he is when his contract would be up? 
 

In what world is it a distraction? The same world that Diggs was going to be a distraction?

This comparison to Diggs is another straw man argument. Diggs was 26 years old, and was not signed in the midst of a cap squeeze. You're comparing apples and oranges. 

 

I've said my piece here, and there's no point in arguing it further. We'll just have to disagree, as good fans of the same team often do. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dr. K

[mjt328]

27 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

In two years Watt is not going to be playing at a level that warrants the salary he is going to command now. This is a short term move, and pays off if he stays healthy and performs at the "elite" level you expect from him for a full season. I don't think that's hard to understand. Signing him is making a bet that he will, as you say, put them over the top. If he doesn't do that, it's a waste and distraction, and spends money that could be spent on, say, Milano, or some other younger player.

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

[HeHateMe]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

Even a somewhat diminished Watt is probably our best player in the front 7...  At least he plays hard and would be a leader... which we desperately lack.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Of course I don't expect them to sit on their hands. That's a straw man argument. Any personnel decision is going to involve risk. I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt. 

 

We'll see what happens. 

 

 

"I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt."

 

That's a fair assessment.   That means you're evaluating the Watt opportunity as probably a bad bet.  That is, you think it's a relatively small likelihood that he will give the Bills the kind of play that they need.  

 

I won't argue with that assessment - everyone can make his own judgment.   

 

I think the problem with that conclusion, however, is that it leaves the Bills nowhere.  The Bills have a very good team, and one of the things they need to get better is some explosive defensive line play.  They need one or two higher caliber playmakers on the defensive line.   That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago.  

 

So the question is "where are the Bills going to get that kind of playmaker?"   You might get lucky and find one in the draft, but if you do, that guy isn't likely to be a real playmaker for two or three years.  A guy who is going to be a stud as a rookie is very unlikely to fall far enough in the draft for the Bills to get him.   So the Bills are limited to finding their playmaking dlineman in free agency or a trade.   I don't know who's on the list, but it's a very short list of guys who are playmakers and either free agents or available in trade.    They all will be expensive, and they all will carry some risk.  

 

So, if you don't want the Bills to take a chance on Watt, who do you want them to take a chance on?  (If you've answered that in this thread, I'm sorry, I haven't gone to look for it).   Or, do you want the Bills just to stick with what they have, hope Epenesa and Oliver take big steps up, maybe find a role player or two in the draft or free agency?

[JGMcD2]

16 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

This comparison to Diggs is another straw man argument. Diggs was 26 years old, and was not signed in the midst of a cap squeeze. You're comparing apples and oranges. 

 

I've said my piece here, and there's no point in arguing it further. We'll just have to disagree, as good fans of the same team often do. 

So he’s a distraction based on the amount of money? I really don’t understand? Diggs wasn’t supposed to be a distraction because he was acquired when cap was lush and was younger? 
 

I didn’t realize contracts and age were the determining factors in a player being a distraction? Normally when people claim a player is going to be a distraction it’s because of their behavior... 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JGMcD2

[HeHateMe]

What do people think Watt will get assuming a short team deal?  2 years @ 24-30 Million?  More/Less?

[Einstein's Dog]

11 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

What are you basing the "injuries have really taken their toll" on?  Did you really watch all his games and come up with a different opinion/analysis than the guys who did.  What was your win rate and double team rate?

 

It wasn't that long ago that Bills fans saw the damage Watt can do.  That player we saw in the playoff game would be great to have on the Bills.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now.

He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

 

 

Watt isn't elite anymore.

 

But elite level DE play costs about $23M per season now.....not $10M-$12M as some have speculated Watt would be paid.......... and there aren't even any elite 4-3 DE's on the market.

 

If you want "elite" QB's, LT's, DE's and CB and WR you pretty much gotta' draft them(or trade for them) and use your team control leverage to get them inked long term the way the Bills did with Tre White.

[Dr. K]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

"I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt."

 

That's a fair assessment.   That means you're evaluating the Watt opportunity as probably a bad bet.  That is, you think it's a relatively small likelihood that he will give the Bills the kind of play that they need.  

 

I won't argue with that assessment - everyone can make his own judgment.   

 

I think the problem with that conclusion, however, is that it leaves the Bills nowhere.  The Bills have a very good team, and one of the things they need to get better is some explosive defensive line play.  They need one or two higher caliber playmakers on the defensive line.   That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago.  

 

So the question is "where are the Bills going to get that kind of playmaker?"   You might get lucky and find one in the draft, but if you do, that guy isn't likely to be a real playmaker for two or three years.  A guy who is going to be a stud as a rookie is very unlikely to fall far enough in the draft for the Bills to get him.   So the Bills are limited to finding their playmaking dlineman in free agency or a trade.   I don't know who's on the list, but it's a very short list of guys who are playmakers and either free agents or available in trade.    They all will be expensive, and they all will carry some risk.  

 

So, if you don't want the Bills to take a chance on Watt, who do you want them to take a chance on?  (If you've answered that in this thread, I'm sorry, I haven't gone to look for it).   Or, do you want the Bills just to stick with what they have, hope Epenesa and Oliver take big steps up, maybe find a role player or two in the draft or free agency?

These are all reasonable arguments for taking a chance on Watt. I don't know what the reasonable alternatives in free agency or trades are if you need an immediate upgrade. I do hope that Epenesa and Oliver will improve their pass rushing abilities. But I also expect Jerry Hughes, whom I like, to hit the wall any day now. 

 

I generally trust Beane to judge what the cost-benefit breakdown is in bringing in D-linemen, though the bets he made on Addison and the others he brought in last season did not really pay off. I think the return of Lotulelei and the improvement of Harrison at tackle might help the run defense, and maybe free up others to rush the passer.

 

If Beane thinks Watt is worth the money and the consequential inability to sign other free agents, then I'll hope he's right.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dr. K

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think Watt is an immediate upgrade over anything they currently have on the defensive line..... what would you like them to do? 

 

Address the position in the draft because it saves you money? Chances are pretty strong you aren't getting an immediate impact player as good as Watt, even at his age.... and hell, why not sign Watt and draft a pass rusher early? You can do both. 

 

That's what exactly I would do.  

 

Watt would be our best defensive lineman immediately.  He's not the elite Watt anymore but getting his snaps from 90% with Houston to 60% or so with us....we could see his juice again.  

 

Every end we would have would be over 30 except AJ and he's not a quick twitch edge guy.  

I don't think Daryl Johnson is anything that can't be replaced easily.  

Edited February 19, 2021 by Royale with Cheese

[mjt328]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

What are you basing the "injuries have really taken their toll" on?  Did you really watch all his games and come up with a different opinion/analysis than the guys who did.  What was your win rate and double team rate?

 

It wasn't that long ago that Bills fans saw the damage Watt can do.  That player we saw in the playoff game would be great to have on the Bills.

 

I'm basing it on him being 32 at the start of next season, along with him missing 13 games in 2016, 11 games in 2017 and 8 games in 2019.

In the 4 seasons prior to when the injuries starting hitting, Watt had 69 total sacks.

In the last 5 seasons since the injuries started, he's got 26.5 total sacks.

 

I realize that pass rushing is about total pressure, and not just about sacks.  But the ELITE guys usually get to the QB and finish the job.  

We already have a pretty good DE (Jerry Hughes) who causes lots of pressure, but isn't great at actually sacking the quarterback.  

 

Watt would certainly be an upgrade over Mario Addison.  But I don't believe he's among the elite guys anymore, and isn't worth getting into a bidding war over... especially considering the cap issues we have at other places on the team.

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's what exactly I would do.  

 

Watt would be our best defensive lineman immediately.  He's not the elite Watt anymore but getting his snaps from 90% with Houston to 60% or so with us....we could see his juice again.  

 

Every end we would have would be over 30 except AJ and he's not a quick twitch edge guy.  

I don't think Daryl Johnson is anything that can't be replaced easily.  

Well I hit the like button, but immediately realized I shoulda hit the glass of beer like the other guy lol

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Dr. K said:

These are all reasonable arguments for taking a chance on Watt. I don't know what the reasonably alternatives in free agency or trades are if you need an immediate upgrade. I do hope that Epenesa and Oliver will improve their pass rushing abilities. But I also expect Jerry Hughes, whom I like, to hit the wall any day now. 

 

I generally trust Beane to judge what the cost-benefit breakdown is in bringing in D-linemen, though the bets he made on Addison and the others he brought in last season did not really pay off. I think the return of Lotulelei and the improvement of Harrison at tackle might help the run defense, and maybe free up others to rush the passer.

 

If Beane thinks Watt is worth the money and the consequential inability to sign other free agents, then I'll hope he's right.

Got it.  Thanks.   I don't disagree.   I trust Beane to do the cost-benefit breakdown (and the evaluation of the risk) too.  

 

And the piece we're missing is implied in what you say.  The piece we're missing is what McDermott and Frazier and others think the Bills need to make the defensive front seven better.  As you say, Epenesa, Oliver, and Star may be much of the solution.   And I agree about Hughes, too.  

 

Like most fans, I may be overly attracted to the star player.   I watched Frank Clark and Chris Jones disrupt things and don't see someone on the Bills who can do that.   I'm thinking it's critical to have that disruptive guy somewhere on the front seven.  Can they make Milano into something like the 3-4 OLB pass rusher?   Bills obviously aren't going to change scheme to do that, but I think someone has to step as something more than just solid at his position.   Hughes almost was that kind of guy in his younger days, but he certainly isn't now.  Oliver hasn't turned into an Aaron Donald-like player.  I don't think Epenesa is that guy - he hasn't flashed that kind of brilliance.  

 

So, I think the question that you and I can't answer is what does McDermott think he needs, and is he correct?   Beane will get him what McD thinks he needs.  

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Well I hit the like button, but immediately realized I shoulda hit the glass of beer like the other guy lol

@Scottlaw drinks the Hard Lemonade’s because beer is too strong for him.  

[Hebert19]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The Bills were in the AFC Championship and need a couple more elite players to get them over the top......not sure how signing Watt compromises them in “building for the long haul”......whatever that means. 
 

 

This.  Beane is smart.  He would sign him 2 or 3 years but make the cap hit to let him walk at the end of those seasons not a big impact.  

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Watt would certainly be an upgrade over Mario Addison.  But I don't believe he's among the elite guys anymore, and isn't worth getting into a bidding war over... especially considering the cap issues we have at other places on the team.

 

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

[TheFunPolice]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's the huge unknown.  Will Star play, and if he plays, will he be "all in" with training and conditioning this spring and preparation/game day next fall?

Or will he be phoning it in?

 

The major prep I want to see Star doing is to commit in the dining room.

 

I want a 350+ lb DT on this team! 

Edited February 19, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

What do people think Watt will get assuming a short team deal?  2 years @ 24-30 Million?  More/Less?

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

[TheFunPolice]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

 

That's perfect. I like a 2 year deal, in case he is really great. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

(snip)

only 4 players who were in the top 10 in double teams ALSO were in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. They are Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Chase Young and JJ Watt. (....)

Joey Bosa has the largest contract for a DE. 5/$135M with an AAV of $27M.

Myles Garrett has the 2nd largest contract for a DE. 5/$125M with an AAV of $25M.

Chase Young has the 15th largest contract (rookie deal). 4/$34M with an AAV of $8M. 
 

That’s a lot of coin... on average $20M. Now you’re in the right to be concerned about Watt being older, he’s 32 and those guys are 25 or younger. You’re right to be worried about injuries with him as compared to those guys. If that’s your concern, I understand. 
 

The root of it is, Watt at 32 performed similar to them and we’re talking about $8M in savings associated with that type of production due to various factors such as age and injury history. Healthy and you have an absolute steal, hurt and you have a signing that really can’t be much worse than Trent Murphy. 
 

I think it’s really a snap call with where the Bills are right now. They need an elite pass rusher, he still is, and those guys aren’t growing on trees. If that type of guy is available it’s because they have some warts, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. 

 

It's been reported that when negotiations for the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers trade were ongoing, the (then) San Diego Chargers wanted Osi Umenyiora as part of the deal and the Giants said that's a deal-breaker: "we don't trade young pass rushers".   It's true that elite pass rushers, if available, fetch a high price or sign for a high price, or go high in the draft.

 

I have a hunch that McDermott and Frazier have not assigned the same importance, in their scheme, to an elite pass rusher that some of their peers have.  If you look at what positions the team has prioritized in the draft for defense, it's been 1) CB 2) MLB.  Clearly the team recognized that an elite QB is critical and Beane needed to "sell the farm" to position himself in the draft to take one.  But we haven't seen the same efforts for a pass rusher.

 

I think buried in some of this discussion is the fact that there are pass rushers and pass rushers.  There are guys who can win their battles and get to the QB as part of a strong OL.  And there are game-wreckers - guys who can win so fast they make life hell on a QB all by themselves.

 

Jerry Hughes is the former.  His best sack and QB Hit totals (2013, 2014) came as part of an elite DL - Hughes, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus.  He's gonna be 33 next season.  It seems to me that when the Colts expected him to be a game-changing player on his own, it didn't work out too well.

Mario Addison, also going to be 34 next season, is, I think, similar.  His best sack and QB Hit totals came more recently - 2016-2019 - the beginning of that stretch, under McDermott with a similar philosophy of having the DL get pressure as a unit to give the ends a chance to make plays.   Judging by the contract, I believe the Bills felt they could get at least 2 years of strong performance out of him.

JJ Watt, in his heyday of 2012-2015 was, I think, the latter - a "force of nature", a guy who can be so explosive and win so fast he can wreck the game all on his own.  He'll be 32 next season, so actually younger than our two current DEs.  He's a step above what we have.

 

For whatever the talk about "setting a foundation",  I don't believe Frazier and McDermott got what they hoped for from the FA additions of Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  Maybe the 1TDT was the sticking point - maybe they made those additions expecting that Lotulelei would be there and Harrison Phillips would be back to form or even taking a step.  But it just never functioned as intended.  There were "breadcrumbs" dropped by various guys in the secondary about "guys buying in".

 

I'm rambling.  If the question is, "Is it worth it for the Bills to sign Watt?" I guess it depends upon for what?  Last year the Bills signed 33 year old Mario Addison to a three year, $30.45 million, $13.25 million fully guaranteed.  All the guaranteed money was last year and they can move on for $4M dead cap, so it could be looked at as a 1 year, $13.24M contract.  Would 32 year old JJ Watt be worth that?  I would say, absolutely! 

 

Would he be worth a 1 yr, $20M contract?  I would say that depends upon whether or not we can retain or have in place whatever other pieces on the line to maximize his effect.  We would need to cut all 3 of Addison, Butler, and Jefferson plus likely not re-sign Milano and Daryl Williams to make that happen, I'd guess?

 

I will say this - I know you've expressed the view that the "Carolina Connection" isn't the big deal or the hindrance some here see it as.  The 2015 Panthers DL that went to the Superbowl (and proved "not good enough") was essentially Johnson-Lotulelei-Kawan Short-Mario Addison.  We have 2 of those 4 here.  If we add Short, I can't help feeling that McDermott needs someone to sew him a sampler "You Can't Go Home Again" or the like.

 

[Reed83HOF]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

TKO stated today that you need the pass rusher, if QB is 1A the pass rusher is 1B in terms of need

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago.  

 

 

Only quoting this line @Shaw66 because I think it is an interesting comparison for where the Bills are now. Frank Clark is overpaid. Not just a little bit overpaid. A lot overpaid. His cap number was top 3 for defensive ends in 2020 and is #1 for defensive ends in 2021. He had only 6 sacks and 9 hurries in 2020. The Chiefs also overpaid to sign him. They traded a 1st and a 2nd and swapped 3rds. It was a significant overpay. But they said "we need an upgrade at edge rusher, we are in a window, sod the cost let's do it."

 

I don't think the Frank Clark trade when you consider cost, contract and production will ever be considered good value. But hey, the Chiefs needed an upgrade on the edge they got an upgrade on the edge and they won a Superbowl. I'm not sure a 32 year old JJ Watt on a 2 year $24m contract, and playing in a different scheme than the one he has played his whole career is particularly great value (though it is better than Clark!) The point is the Bills need an upgrade on the Dline and it might be worth overpaying the real world value to try and force them over the top. 

 

I still think a better fit is someone who is more of a speedy, bendy, outside 4-3 end, but JJ Watt is available and if he stays healthy he can still impact football games. If he comes to Buffalo then he will be judged as much on whether he is the missing piece as he is on whether he ever lives up to a pure economic value. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look?

 

Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing?   Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season. 

 

I think the Frazier/McDermott defense for years has been built on having a DL of "good not great" players who both "do their 1/11" and play fiercely when they're in (enabled by having a rotation, so they get breathers).

 

I think the AFC championship game and Superbowl have to leave them asking both  "are the guys we currently have, actually good enough to get the job done?" and "is this philosophy and scheme actually the right road?"

[BillsFan2313]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

 

Throw in a lifetime supply of wings for his wife, from a place of her choosing, and no one will beat that deal. 

[Einstein's Dog]

18 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Short and Addison were much better players when they went to the SB..... that being said, I’m sick of the Carolina connection. It’s been just a pile on of overvaluing and overpaying mediocre or washed up players. 
 

I don’t know what to say about a coach who doesn’t put a high value pass rushers.... really hope this isn’t their mentality. Especially within the scheme they play. 

I wouldn't mind the newest Carolina possibility K Short.  It seems like a lot of people here will lose it, and that would just be an added benefit.

 

This FO and coach have placed a high value on the DL.  Wasn't it the most money in the league?  I'm in agreement in hoping they tweak the investment.  They've already started, the early draft picks of Oliver and Epenesa can help eliminate the costly depth of the Butler/Murphy/Jeffersons.  Now move on from them and add a premier top guy (and yes I classify Watt as one of those).

 

On Watt news, I'm getting a little nervous.  Was hoping for news today.  I am of the opinion the longer it drags on the lower the odds for the Bills.

[ndirish1978]

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

On Watt news, I'm getting a little nervous.  Was hoping for news today.  I am of the opinion the longer it drags on the lower the odds for the Bills.

 

Who knows how it is going and whether he and the Bills have talked terms at all yet or just general levels of interest. But I am pretty sure the Bills will have a number and they will hold to that number. They are not going to call him every morning offering to add another half million to seal the deal. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

 

Your drink of choice angers me lol! Jk that was awesome man!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Short and Addison were much better players when they went to the SB..... that being said, I’m sick of the Carolina connection. It’s been just a pile on of overvaluing and overpaying mediocre or washed up players.

 

Valuing/overpaying 🤷‍♂️.  To an extent, one could argue that all FA are overvalued and overpaid.  They're also, at times, difference makers.  There was a point that it was hard to get FA to come to Buffalo, and familiarity with the coach/system is a selling point.  Familiarity of the coach with the players is another selling point.

 

I would hope this past season has taken us into contention for being a good destination.

 

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I don’t know what to say about a coach who doesn’t put a high value pass rushers.... really hope this isn’t their mentality. Especially within the scheme they play. 

 

Please note that "high value" or "doesn't put a high value" on pass rushers wasn't exactly what I said.  My words were "I have a hunch that McDermott and Frazier have not assigned the same importance, in their scheme, to an elite pass rusher that some of their peers have."  To put some more detail behind that: Chicago gave up 2 1st round picks AND made Mack, a former #5 overall pick, the highest-paid defender in the league.  They were basically "name your price _________________________"

 

The Bills did something not dissimilar with Mario Williams and Marcel Dareus.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Who knows how it is going and whether he and the Bills have talked terms at all yet or just general levels of interest. But I am pretty sure the Bills will have a number and they will hold to that number. They are not going to call him every morning offering to add another half million to seal the deal. 

I agree with the Bills having a number.  I just think if the Watt team was going to take the offer they would want to put it out there on a Friday afternoon - get a whole weekend news cycle.  Plus if it goes longer, Green Bay and Pitt come more into play.

[Buffalo03]

12 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

I honestly don't know why we can't cut Quentin Jefferson, Vernon Butler and Mario Addison to make room for both. Cutting those 3 guys will open $26 million of cap space on top of what they will have once they get the cap figures. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2 years 24m is supposedly his ask. 

 

Do you think we could structure it like $10M and $14M to reduce cap hit this year? Or even $8M, $16M? Maybe fully guaranteed?

[YoloinOhio]

41 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

Milano is a LB who can he replaced (or gasp - upgraded) at pick 30 or even later for what he does. His role can be played by a rookie imo more easily than most other positions on the D In an ideal world he would be back. But we weren’t beating KC with him either. I don’t think a player in the draft at 30 or beyond (or maybe anywhere) comes in and makes the immediate impact to the D of a JJ watt. For what he can provide in power, technique, drawing doubles, freeing up Hughes, in the short term gains, let alone mentoring Oliver and epenesa in the long term gains. The SB window is now. He’s a greater impact to the D right now than Milano and Milano can be replaced/upgraded in two months. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Do you think we could structure it like $10M and $14M to reduce cap hit this year? Or even $8M, $16M? Maybe fully guaranteed?

 

We absolutely could, if that's his ask, but it would cost us more next year.  Something like $2M salary, $12M signing bonus - $14M in Watt's pocket plus $8M cap hit this year or add in a voidable year for $6M; then $10M salary/roster bonus next year for a $16M or (voidable year) $14M cap hit next year. 

 

Yeah, Watt would want most of that guaranteed.  The cool thing would be if the Bills could add some incentive bonuses around things like games played, sacks etc.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Do you think we could structure it like $10M and $14M to reduce cap hit this year? Or even $8M, $16M? Maybe fully guaranteed?

 

Yes. Ideally I want to pay him $36m over 3 with the clear understanding that he will get paid $24m over 2 in cash terms but allow me to spread it over 3 for cap terms with the other $12m being fake money. 

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I can't argue with you, you're right. 

Still I don't think the evidence is as overwhelming as so many here seem to believe that he is still worth the $10-12 million per year they say he will cost whoever signs him. But of course I could be wrong. If the Bills sign him, I will seriously hope I am wrong. 

We'll see.

It must be nice to be as smart as you are. 

 

I’m better looking than I am smart. And I’m ugly as all get out. 

 

For the record - I was being sarcastic with previous post. 

 

Peace, homie 😎

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We absolutely could, if that's his ask, but it would cost us more next year.  Something like $2M salary, $12M signing bonus - $14M in Watt's pocket plus $8M cap hit this year or add in a voidable year for $6M; then $10M salary/roster bonus next year for a $16M or (voidable year) $14M cap hit next year. 

 

Yeah, Watt would want most of that guaranteed.  The cool thing would be if the Bills could add some incentive bonuses around things like games played, sacks etc.

 

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. Ideally I want to pay him $36m over 3 with the clear understanding that he will get paid $24m over 2 in cash terms but allow me to spread it over 3 for cap terms with the other $12m being fake money. 

 

Thanks Guys.

 

I've been confused, thinking I was the crazy one, seeing so many people saying "With the cap situation this year, I bet we'll see a lot of 1-year deals so players can really hit Free Agency next year". And that made no sense to me.

 

If anything, I think we'll see more long term deals, with 2021 being low paid and all the real money shifted down the line, and likely guaranteed to some extent. Not like the old-school backloaded contracts where you knew the player was never going to see a penny of the last 3 years.

56 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I'm confused. Why has there been all this talk about not being able to sign Milano, who is important for us, at 12-13/yr and we're suddenly all ok with paying 12M for a rotational piece? I mean, I want to pay him 12M too, just realized that I had the sam attitude described above and thought it was worth noting. 

 

It's not that we CANT sign Milano. It's that we shouldnt sign Milano at such a high price.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Milano is a LB who can he replaced (or gasp - upgraded) at pick 30 or even later for what he does. His role can be played by a rookie imo more easily than most other positions on the D In an ideal world he would be back. But we weren’t beating KC with him either. I don’t think a player in the draft at 30 or beyond (or maybe anywhere) comes in and makes the immediate impact to the D of a JJ watt. For what he can provide in power, technique, drawing doubles, freeing up Hughes, in the short term gains, let alone mentoring Oliver and epenesa in the long term gains. The SB window is now. He’s a greater impact to the D right now than Milano and Milano can be replaced/upgraded in two months. 

 

I don't know that I agree Milano can be replaced/upgraded so easily from the draft. 

 

I think he has made himself into an impact player and you're not going to get his level of savvy from a rookie.

 

The double-edged sword of Milano was revealed this season though.  When he's an integral part of the Bills defense and they depend upon him for a bunch of stuff that "next man up" can't do as well, it's a problem if they can't count on him to stay healthy.

 

The other thing is that he and Edmunds are both players who seem to do what they do in part with "zone eyes", and that made them easy prey for a QB with "lying eyes" like Mahomes to manipulate. 

 

In an ideal world, we would keep Milano AND upgrade our DL/Pass rush substantially - but then there is still that "double edged sword" of depending upon Milano and perhaps not being able to "plug and play" a replacement - and whether the scheme we evolved into with him is "good, but not good enough" to beat a team like KC.

 

Interesting times.

 

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I wonder what the time line is on this thing. Will it spill into the beginning of FA in mid March? Or is he close to signing somewhere now?