Round 1 Playoff: Colts at Bills - Sat. 1/9 1:05pm

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

1 minute ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Exactly. Eff this guy. Just look at him for God's sake. His face screams "punch meeee". D-bag. 

 

Right, even his look is intentional.

 

He sees Bills fans have an inferiority complex and he is playing to it. It's smart in an annoying way. You will never be able to present enough facts for him to change his mind because being right or wrong is irrelevant to him. He wants your attention and he is getting it.

 

Childish but very effective obviously

[ColoradoBills]

So the weather looks like Partly Cloudy, fairly calm winds and CHILLY.

 

Excellent, Excellent.

[Success]

2 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think Allen has gotten better at changing plays at the line and calling out protections, but it seems that the entire offense is really keyed in lately. The OL is blocking better. The WRs are running routes better. Allen deserves some credit for sure, but I really think what we are seeing is the whole team getting better.  Recently, Josh has been standing back there with all kinds of time to find an open receiver, with the exception of the Pittsburgh game. They made some adjustments in protections in the second half and of course pulled away at the end of that game. The boys on that OL have really been doing a nice job lately.

 

Of all the pleasant developments with Allen, his savvy at the line really stands out.  That is one thing that MANY QB's just never get - they have a hard time recognizing defenses and adjusting.  We've had a few of those over the drought years.

 

He honestly reminds me of P. Manning at the line.  He takes his time & surveys everything - you can tell he's evaluating what they're doing.  He never feels rushed and he often changes the play.  He's especially good recognizing the blitz, and usually puts a little pause in that backs it off somewhat.

 

[junior]

Has anyone who's attending received information about parking? It's been radio silent since I got my COVID test. 

[BillsFan619]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

So the weather looks like Partly Cloudy, fairly calm winds and CHILLY.

 

Excellent, Excellent.

Yup, cold enough to possibly affect a dome team. But, not nasty enough to neutralize our offense.

 

Go get it, Bills!

[Figster]

5 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Yes, and he always refers to the players on his team as men. Which I would like to think most coaches do, but it's just a respect kinda thing and these players have bought in. You can certainly tell that and that they believe in him and this staff and they have a ton of respect for him as well.

 

And that is ALWAYS a good thing and also one of the main things that builds a good, solid team.

Its just a gut feeling Duff, 

 

but something big is about to happen...

[Scott7975]

Josh is one of the most clutch QBs in the league.  Rivers is one of the most anti clutch QBs in the league especially in the playoffs.  

 

 

 

Saturday, January 9

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills—1:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bills are 6.5-point favorites with William Hill and are 9-10 to cover the spread in their first playoff game at home in 25 years, while the Colts are 5-2 underdogs.

Buffalo was a league-best 11-5 against the spread this season, covering the spread in 68.8 percent of games by an average of 5.6 points. Indianapolis, meanwhile, was 5-3 against the spread on the road but lost the only game it started as underdog on the road.

The over/under line in terms of total points scored is set at 46.5, which is somewhat conservative given both teams ranked in the top 10 in scoring offense in the NFL this season—the Bills scored a second-best 31.3 points per game, while the Colts put up a ninth-best 28.1 points per game.

[sven233]

The more I think about and break this game down, I think our success comes down to 2 things:

 

1.  The Offensive Line - If the offensive line can keep Allen clean and give him time to throw, then the offense will roll.  The only times Allen has remotely struggled this season is when teams are able to get to him extremely fast.  Luckily, thanks to our O-line, this hasn't happened all that often, or when it has, adjustments have been made and the rush inevitably slows down and Allen goes to work.  If the line can keep Allen clean, our offense should be just fine.

 

2. Early Game Defense - This kind of goes hand in hand with the point above.  If we can get a few early 3 and outs, and we can get up early, then we should be fine.  There are a lot of people out there saying that the Colts are just going to take the air out of the ball and pound it and try to win this game with timely scores and time of possession.  They want to use their great run game and passes to the backs out of the backfield to go on long drives and keep Allen off the field.  Well, the best way to counter this and get them out of this plan is to get up early.  If the defense can get 2-3 quick 3 and outs and the offense does their job as I mentioned above, and we can get an early 10-14 point lead, this game could be over real quick.

 

I really believe if these 2 things happen, we have a chance to roll in this game.  I don't think the Colts are good enough on the back end to slow down our passing game, and, if we get up early, I don't think they can go toe to toe with our offense.  So, get up a couple scores early, and it will change the entire game.

 

I know the narrative out there is that Josh still hasn't done it in the Playoffs and, no matter how good he is, until he proves it in the Playoffs, you can't count on him.  I think this is a bunch of garbage, personally.  I have 0 concerns about Allen.  Where he has struggled most in the past is decision making.  This year, especially since the bye week, he has proven to have all the answers no matter what defense you are running.  He can obliterate man coverage and, while he struggled a little bit with zone early in the season, has proven that he can beat zone coverage for big plays anywhere on the field, especially since the Bye week.  There is not a scheme you can run right now that is going to confuse him.  The mental side has caught up with his physical ability and that is why he is so scary right now.  Even if it takes a series or 2 to figure defense out, as soon as he does, he just torches them no matter whether it is man, zone, or a combination.

 

That is why above I mentioned that this game comes down to the offensive line.  They do their job and give Allen time to see the coverage, I have no doubt that Allen will figure out where to go with the ball.  And with his arm, even if it takes him a half second longer to do that, he can just fire laser beams that make up for that processing time.  It's what makes him so dangerous.  Anyway, I know this has gotten lengthy, but if those 2 things I mentioned happen above and we get out early, it could be a big party tomorrow.  If not, in the end, hopefully we find a way to squeak one out.  But, I think this team is on a mission and they have somersetting to prove.  Hopefully they step on the gas and never let up.

[Logic]

I just read in an Athletic article that Josh Allen led the league in EPA against Cover 2 defensive looks -- which just so happen to be the Colts defense's most used look throughout the season.

I also read that their pass defense overall has been struggling since week 10 or so, particularly against intermediate and deep passes.

Between those factors and starting corner Rock Ya-Sin missing the game, I just don't see how their defense is going to adequately slow down the Bills offense.

I just watched Peter King on NBC Sports talking about how Frank Reich remembers the Super Bowl gameplan the Giants used to beat the Bills: Run the ball, run the clock, limit possessions. If the Colts can do that successfully, they've got a shot. But no matter how many different ways I look at the matchup, I can't convince myself that the Bills are going to lose.

[sherpa]

14 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Of all the pleasant developments with Allen, his savvy at the line really stands out.  That is one thing that MANY QB's just never get - they have a hard time recognizing defenses and adjusting.  We've had a few of those over the drought years.

 

 

 

 

I think that is an accurate assessment.

He just looks like he is much more confident in getting into the right play, and seeing what is coming and what will beat it.

 

To digress, it reminds me of an interaction I had with a guy on an airplane who was at a 2007 UVA game and claimed to be an southeast scout for an NFL team which he wouldn't mention.

 

I asked him if he had seen our fourth round pick that year,  Ko Simpson and what he thought.

 

He kind of laughed and said "believe the wonderlic," with the inference being that Ko wasn't smart and wasn't a good pick.

 

Re Josh, believe the wonderlic.

[Buffalo4Life01]

When will today's injury report come out?  Will today just be a walk through/dress rehearsal?

[Rockinon]

Quote

The NFL Scouting Combine is all wrapped up, and many eyes were on the top quarterback talent in the upcoming 2018 NFL draft – notably former Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.

Wonderlic test scores were recently released, and Josh Allen reportedly scored a 37 on the test.

How good is a 37? Extremely good. No quarterback has scored higher on the Wonderlic test than when Carson Wentz took it and got a 40. The average score for football players is about a 22 and the general population averages about a 20.

Here is what I found on Josh's wonderlic.  Wow. Never knew this.

[Big Turk]

This pretty much sums up what I thought:

 

Our offense against their defense is a much bigger mismatch than their O against our D

 

 

[Scott7975]

Saturday, Jan. 9

Buffalo Bills 31, Indianapolis Colts 21

1:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Bills Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)

There's no particular reason the Bills should lose this game. They are a dominant, pass-first team in a pass-first league, peaking at the right time. Josh Allen hasn't just proven previous doubters like me spectacularly wrong this year; he's made the argument for my unemployment during an economic crisis.

The Bills finished first in weighted DVOA at Football Outsiders, which gives added importance to how a team performs later in the season. Even Buffalo's defense, which struggled early in the year, finished the season playing at a higher level than a sound Colts group that is similar to the Bills' D in many ways. Both units communicate well and don't give up big plays. They force opponents into long drives and each finished in the top five in takeaways. That's Indianapolis' best hope.

Despite Philip Rivers' bad decisions when trailing, the Colts finished second in turnover margin with the third-fewest giveaways in the NFL. If Indianapolis' big defensive playmakers like DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard and Kenny Moore force a mistake or three and get a lucky bounce, the Colts could hang in this game. Jonathan Taylor has evolved from a struggling rookie to one of the 10 best running backs in football, so Indy could try the ol' shorten the game strategy against a superior opponent.

This is the perfect first playoff test for these Bills. The Colts are a quality opponent who will make Buffalo earn it, but they don't have enough firepower to hang in a shootout. If Frank Reich's offense goes stagnant for a few quarters, like it has regularly over the last month, the Bills could overcome any deficit or make this game uglier than the score I'm predicting.

[wjag]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

Saturday, Jan. 9

Buffalo Bills 31, Indianapolis Colts 21

1:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Bills Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)

There's no particular reason the Bills should lose this game. They are a dominant, pass-first team in a pass-first league, peaking at the right time. Josh Allen hasn't just proven previous doubters like me spectacularly wrong this year; he's made the argument for my unemployment during an economic crisis.

 

 

That is pure gold.

[Just Joshin']

38 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

Yup, cold enough to possibly affect a dome team. But, not nasty enough to neutralize our offense.

 

Go get it, Bills!

I wonder if Reich had them practice outdoors this week?  If not, it will be a change of pace that will take some time to adjust.

[Figster]

15 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Here is what I found on Josh's wonderlic.  Wow. Never knew this.

I was pretty sure without looking Ryan Fitzpatrick scored even higher then 40,  Fitz 48 ( just looked)   

 

Oh yeah, Josh Allen is one smart cookie...

Edited January 8, 2021 by Figster

[Patrick Duffy]

40 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Same exact feeling I had going into the Pats game... we should beat this team relatively easily; but I don’t know how to handle that feeling. I don’t know how to handle the idea of the Bills winning a playoff game (born in 96) so I am nervous as heck. Gonna be a long 24 hours.

Oh my.... damn you're still a baby (figure of speech), but I can certainly understand that's likely why you feel this way. In any event, a lot of us are feeling this way also. I mean I was born in 79 and started watching the Bills hardcore in 87. Lol damn, almost 10 years before you were born. I'm feeling old now.

 

Of course I remember the 4 Superbowls in a row like it was yesterday, but that has been so long that I also am nervous. More pumped up than nervous I guess I should say. In any event, it's been a very long time and so even us older fans and even the ones older than me are likely a little nervous or whatever.

 

So just because you're a young Bills fan that doesn't really know much success you are not alone in that feeling.

[Patrick Duffy]

48 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think Allen has gotten better at changing plays at the line and calling out protections, but it seems that the entire offense is really keyed in lately. The OL is blocking better. The WRs are running routes better. Allen deserves some credit for sure, but I really think what we are seeing is the whole team getting better.  Recently, Josh has been standing back there with all kinds of time to find an open receiver, with the exception of the Pittsburgh game. They made some adjustments in protections in the second half and of course pulled away at the end of that game. The boys on that OL have really been doing a nice job lately.

Agree, he has definitely gotten a lot smarter and can read defenses, yes and changing play calls when needed but, also want to point out the Bills have a lot more and better weapons than the Texans. I mean Watson did that to them and he doesn't have much to work with since the boneheaded trade of Hopkins.

 

If they are trying to compare Allen and Watson(who IMO are nothing alike), I think they have another thing coming. Also Allen has better arm strength. If I could pick which QB right now this season that I would rather my defense to play against between the two, I would rather go against Watson. That's just me though.

[Rockinon]

Don't think I have seen this posted anywhere. Really good article:

 

Anatomy of a wild-card win: In Josh Allen, the Bills must trust

 

There are 3 passing plays from various games throughout the season he does breakdown on. Very good stuff from Allen.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Rockinon

[BillsFan619]

3 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

I wonder if Reich had them practice outdoors this week?  If not, it will be a change of pace that will take some time to adjust.

If they do need to adjust, it could be a nice advantage for us.

 

I could be mistaken but I thought I heard that the colts did two walk-throughs this week instead of one.

 

Just to confirm, did anyone else hear this too?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Oh my.... damn you're still a baby (figure of speech), but I can certainly understand that's likely why you feel this way. In any event, a lot of us are feeling this way also. I mean I was born in 79 and started watching the Bills hardcore in 87. Lol damn, almost 10 years before you were born. I'm feeling old now.

 

All you young 'uns Get Off My Lawn!

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

When will today's injury report come out?  Will today just be a walk through/dress rehearsal?

The final injury report with game designations came out yesterday 

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All you young 'uns Get Off My Lawn!

 

 

 

Lol, I assume this means I'm a young buck in your eyes. Lol I definitely don't feel that way. So many problems with my hips and knees I feel like I'm 69 bout to be 70. Just guessing though I don't think your but too much older than me. I'm 41 going on 42.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

If they do need to adjust, it could be a nice advantage for us.

 

I could be mistaken but I thought I heard that the colts did two walk-throughs this week instead of one.

 

Just to confirm, did anyone else hear this too?

 

Yes, Reich said that they did 2 walk-thrus and only one practice this week, though they did extend the practice time.  Said he felt it was right because with the short week they can cover a lot more plays with a walk-thru and also that the players needed the extra rest.

 

He said he always feels confident but some weeks he feels super-confident.  Then he got cute and said "I'm not saying which way I feel this week" but he rather implied he felt super confident.

 

His DC Eberflaus also came across as "Josh Allen no big deal, we played Deshawn Watson twice"

 

 

[Buffalo4Life01]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

The final injury report with game designations came out yesterday 

So Diggs and Beas both questionable right?  And today is a walk-thru?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Lol, I assume this means I'm a young buck in your eyes. Lol I definitely don't feel that way. So many problems with my hips and knees I feel like I'm 69 bout to be 70. Just guessing though I don't think your but too much older than me. I'm 42 going on 43.

 

You Spring Chicken you.  I'd love to be 43 again.

 

4 minutes ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

So Diggs and Beas both questionable right?  And today is a walk-thru?

 

Correct.  My personal take: Diggs will play.  He's in pain but functional and can/will use pain management. 

Beasley probably intends to play but really shouldn't and physically probably can't do a lot of the explosive things that make him great, and the coaches are going to have to make a difficult decision whether a hindered Beasley is better than their alternatives.  I think McKenzie made a strong case for being able to hold down the #3 as long as Diggs and Brown can go and Davis is plainly feeling feisty.

[BillsFan619]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes, Reich said that they did 2 walk-thrus and only one practice this week, though they did extend the practice time.  Said he felt it was right because with the short week they can cover a lot more plays with a walk-thru and also that the players needed the extra rest.

 

He said he always feels confident but some weeks he feels super-confident.  Then he got cute and said "I'm not saying which way I feel this week" but he rather implied he felt super confident.

 

His DC Eberflaus also came across as "Josh Allen no big deal, we played Deshawn Watson twice"

 

 

Thanks for confirming, Hap.

 

What’s your take on doing the two walk-throughs? Do you think that was a smart move? Or, do you think that’s an advantage for us?

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You Spring Chicken you.

 

Correct.  My personal take: Diggs will play.  He's in pain but functional and can/will use pain management. 

Beasley probably intends to play but really shouldn't and physically probably can't do a lot of the explosive things that make him great, and the coaches are going to have to make a difficult decision whether a hindered Beasley is better than their alternatives.  I think McKenzie made a strong case for being able to hold down the #3 as long as Diggs and Brown can go and Davis is plainly feeling feisty.

lol, ahhh, I see. You must be one of those that doesn't want to tell your age. No problem I get it lol. Wish I was a spring chicken, just happen to be one of those that had health problems that started at an early age. Anyway, it's nice to hear that you think I'm still young lol

[Boxcar]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You Spring Chicken you.  I'd love to be 43 again.

 

 

Correct.  My personal take: Diggs will play.  He's in pain but functional and can/will use pain management. 

Beasley probably intends to play but really shouldn't and physically probably can't do a lot of the explosive things that make him great, and the coaches are going to have to make a difficult decision whether a hindered Beasley is better than their alternatives.  I think McKenzie made a strong case for being able to hold down the #3 as long as Diggs and Brown can go and Davis is plainly feeling feisty.

Stills is also an option.

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You Spring Chicken you.

 

Correct.  My personal take: Diggs will play.  He's in pain but functional and can/will use pain management. 

Beasley probably intends to play but really shouldn't and physically probably can't do a lot of the explosive things that make him great, and the coaches are going to have to make a difficult decision whether a hindered Beasley is better than their alternatives.  I think McKenzie made a strong case for being able to hold down the #3 as long as Diggs and Brown can go and Davis is plainly feeling feisty.

Absolutely Diggs will play. No doubt. I was never concerned that he wouldn't play myself. Beasley either, personally I would be shocked if Beasley doesn't play tomorrow.

 

The thought of Diggs never crossed my mind, not once. Hope they all stay healthy throughout the game

3 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Stills is also an option.

Stills will remain on the PS. At least for tomorrow imo anyways. I think he is there for insurance and a just in case we lose a WR during this playoff run(yes, I feel the Bills will go deep). I think the team also expects to be playing the next few weeks.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Stills is also an option.

 

I truly don't think so, not tomorrow.   Not so long as Brown and Diggs can go.

[Mark Vader]

20 hours ago, Like A Mofo said:

 

I like the crew.

 

Ian is one of the best in the biz and Charles is a really solid analyst.

I was hoping for Kevin Harlan.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Beasley either, personally I would be shocked if Beasley doesn't play tomorrow.

 

Beasley I'm sure 100% wants to play. 

 

My question is whether he'll really be able to contribute to the team.

 

 

[Success]

I expect the Colts to choose getting the ball first if they win the coin toss.  That would be logical given the Bills strength on offense.

 

Not that it's up to me, but I can't decide if it's a good idea to defer or not if the Bills win the toss.  Normally, I like it when we defer. It's always nice as the 1st half winds down - no matter how it's gone - to know we start the 2nd w/ the ball.

 

But in this case, I'm having some nightmares about that running game chewing up a huge part of the 1st quarter if the Colts start w/ the ball, and the Bills don't have a chance to put them in any kind of catch-up mode.

 

Any thoughts?  Probably doesn't matter too much, I guess.  But my mind is like a hamster wheel right now.

 

[Mark Vader]

5 hours ago, bills6969 said:

I’m becoming increasingly worried for this game for the following reasons:

 

1) Phil Rivers is 17 year veteran,  he’s been here before,  won’t be phased by the moment. He’ll have that offense prepared for whatever we throw at them.

 

2) All the pressure is on us to win,  how will we handle it?  We know JA is a stud, but how will he handle the pressure of this game if things get tight?  Going back to last years debacle in the playoffs,  we were crushing Houston then Houston woke up and got things going and we folded like a cheap suit.   It’s been a awhile since this team has faced any adversity.  If we struggle early or get behind will the team play tight?

Fair analysis.

 

Let me emphasize that this team is a year older and wiser. Also, this is NOT the same team that was in the playoffs last year.

[BillsFan4]

😂

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I expect the Colts to choose getting the ball first if they win the coin toss.  That would be logical given the Bills strength on offense.

 

Not that it's up to me, but I can't decide if it's a good idea to defer or not if the Bills win the toss.  Normally, I like it when we defer. It's always nice as the 1st half winds down - no matter how it's gone - to know we start the 2nd w/ the ball.

 

But in this case, I'm having some nightmares about that running game chewing up a huge part of the 1st quarter if the Colts start w/ the ball, and the Bills don't have a chance to put them in any kind of catch-up mode.

 

Any thoughts?  Probably doesn't matter too much, I guess.  But my mind is like a hamster wheel right now.

 

The Bills inability to stop the run is a myth.  Since week 9 they are like 7th in the league and Derrick Henry had his worst game against the Bills.

 

They will reasonably contain Taylor.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by BillsfaninSB

[Mark Vader]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

😂

I didn't know Terry was funny.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, BillsFan619 said:

Thanks for confirming, Hap.

What’s your take on doing the two walk-throughs? Do you think that was a smart move? Or, do you think that’s an advantage for us?

 

At this stage of the season with a vet team I think it's a push, I think.  On the one hand, less wear-and-tear.  On the other hand, it's one thing to recognize and react to a pattern on a walk-through, it's another to do it at speed.

 

It's fairly standard for teams on a short week I think.  

 

Bangedup Bills has his injury assessment up:

https://bangedupbills.com/

 

About Beasley:

There is no video present of running, jumping, or cutting at full speed to indicate how he will perform. While he doesn’t need the practice, it is concerning whether he was available for the offensive game plan installation. I simply don’t know if he plays. On one hand, it’s the playoffs, if you don’t win, you’re done. But does the team want to risk aggravating his injury and losing him for the remainder of the postseason?

If Beasley does play, I would expect he has difficulty running his routes to the right and having to cut on a dime to that direction having to push off the left knee. I would also expect him to have difficulty with jumping and getting yards after the catch to move the chains. In addition, he would be going up against one of the best slot corners in the NFL in Kenny Moore. Going up against a healthy slot corner with Beasley not being 100% makes me question whether it’s worth getting him out there. Can he tough it out and play? Absolutely, but it doesn’t mean it may be the best option.

 

About the Colts, people are speaking of their OL as a strength of the team, but is it? Emphasis mine.....

OUT: T Will Holden (Ankle) 

While Holden is the backup right tackle, the loss of him leaves the Colts very thin at the tackle position in general. They’ve already lost Anthony Constanzo to season-ending ankle surgery and lost his backup La’Raven Clark to a torn Achilles right after. 

They are down to their 3rd string tackle Chaz Green and anyone backing him up will be coming from the practice squad or playing out of position. The Pittsburgh Steelers managed to sack Phillip Rivers 5 times, who is dealing with an injury of his own, so he can be pressured. The Bills could potentially use part of that game plan for success. 

 

QUESTIONABLE: DT Deforest Buckner (Ankle)

He originally injured his ankle a few days before Christmas on the 17th, played through it, and has had some great games including a 3-sack performance days after the injury. He either had a high ankle from getting his heel hit or a bad inversion ankle sprain; either or it hasn’t stopped him.

The fact that he is that far out from the original injury and continues to play indicates that he will play Saturday and I would expect that he still gets his numbers.