Scenario where Bills may want to intentionally lose week 17

[BreezeMafia]

I was thinking through this scenario as well.  I keep landing on you should never willfully lose to allow a specific team to make the playoffs and another to miss.  That's bad karma and would somehow, some way, come right back and bite the Bills pretty badly

[Greg S]

I already mentioned that it doesn't matter who the Bills play. The AFC is tough. Unless the Bills are getting the WFT (obviously that can never happen) there are no easy matchups and even the WFT has a decent defense. I will admit playing Miami three times in one year would be nice. It would bring life to the rivalry just like the early 90's. Plus I am curious to see how Mr. Alabama likes playing in the cold.

[BearNorth]

Could we see a Christian Wade call up for Week 17?.  Suspect the Bills will want to pound the rock vs. the Fish anticipating a Jan 9 or 10 playoff game in the 716.  Good running games are impervious to weather. He would be tough to tackle on a slick field.

 

[SCBills]

I don’t think we should intentionally lose in any scenario, but I do think if that scenario plays out, we should absolutely rest key players and let the chips fall where they may.  That seems pretty obvious, and shouldn’t make anyone feel any type of way, or create some weird karma. 
 

I see Ravens fans laughing at the Steelers loss last night, but that wasn’t a good outcome for them.. 

 

Steelers are in no matter what.  Browns could very well win out with the way Pittsburgh is playing.  Colts and Titans, one is in and the other is likely in.  
 

The Ravens could need us playing for something against Miami.  
 

Edited December 22, 2020 by SCBills

[BearNorth]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

I already mentioned that it doesn't matter who the Bills play. The AFC is tough. Unless the Bills are getting the WFT (obviously that can never happen) there are no easy matchups and even the WFT has a decent defense. I will admit playing Miami three times in one year would be nice. It would bring life to the rivalry just like the early 90's. Plus I am curious to see how Mr. Alabama likes playing in the cold.

Yes growing up in Hawaii, and playing at Alabama, doubt he has played any games in what Buffalo will be like in January.  Fitz has, and they might just play Fitz because he gets Buffalo weather.

 

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, BearNorth said:

Yes growing up in Hawaii, and playing at Alabama, doubt he has played any games in what Buffalo will be like in January.  Fitz has, and they might just play Fitz because he gets Buffalo weather.

 

 

I don't think they would play Fitz unless Tua is struggling so badly that they make a QB change to give the team a spark. I could see Tua having a difficult time with the cold, wind, and possible snow.

[BearNorth]

Tua has NEVER played a game below 44 degrees.  Welcome to Bills Stadium on January 3rd. 5 of his 7 starts were in Miami, His lone cold weather start resulted in a QBR of 23.3.

Edited December 22, 2020 by BearNorth

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, buffalo2218 said:

I'd rather have to face the Ravens than the Titans. I'm not sure Jackson would pose much of a threat passing the ball in Buffalo. I think he'd be easier to stop running the ball than Henry

Jackson beat us last year in Buffalo in December in cold conditions and he had 3 Passing TDs.   Lamar is a stud QB and can compete very well.   There are no easy games in the playoffs.

[DCofNC]

I’d much rather play Miami than the Ravens.  Jackson is dangerous, Miami is getting by on a lot of luck, which almost always runs out in the playoffs.  I’d rest the starters week 17 regardless of the seed.

[Jobot]

8 hours ago, Motorin' said:

We can potentially knock the Fins out of the playoffs and get a revenge game against Balt. 

 

Playoffs are going to be a revenge tour

[mjt328]

I wouldn't advocate for us to lose on purpose.  But being in this type of scenario could actually work out very well for the Bills.

 

There is a decent chance we have the #2 seed locked up this week, and there is literally nothing for us to gain by winning in Week 17.  

All it would take is us beating the Patriots and the Steelers losing to the Colts.  We win the tiebreaker, regardless of what happens the final week.

 

If the above happens (and Miami beats Las Vegas), then it becomes almost certain that our Wild Card opponent will be the Dolphins or Ravens.

In other words, the Bills could ultimately have a say in which opponent they face.  And I think most people would prefer to play Miami.

 

In this scenario, the Bills can then rest their starters (extra bye week to get healthy) and use Week 17 to scout the Dolphins tendencies.  At the same time, we can hide what kind of gameplan we are coming with in the Wild Card - similar to a preseason game.  

 

 

[djp14150]

If Indy beats Pittsburgh

if Titans lose to Packers

Bills beat Pats

 

Bills lock in #2 seed.

 

they would have an incentive to rest starts .

 

if pittlises are browns win their week 17 is a winner take all.

 

If Miami , Pittsburgh/Clevrland and Baltimore, and Indy/ tenn all at 11-5 who gets in....

 

Pittsburgh over Baltimore for 2nd Baltimore over Cleveland  due to H2H sweeps.

 

Miami Pittsburgh and Tennessee would have same conf record.

 

common games..buffalo, cincinati, Denver, jacksonville

 

MIA 3-2, PIT 3-2, TEN 4-1...TEN gets 5 then strength of victory determines 6-7. I think PIT is ahead on SV right now.

 

if It’s Indy Then this is skipped because of too few common opponents so then to strength of victory. 

 

IF PIT beats CLE putting them at 11-5.  BAL finishes at 10-6.

 

MIA-CLE-TEN are tied then 5 is TEN, 6 MIA, 7 CLE

MIA-CLE-IND are tied Then 5 MIA, 6 CLE, 7 IND

IF BAL and CLE at 11-5 and BAL in 2nd then 

 

MIA-BAL-TEN is 5 TEN 6 MIA, 7 BAL

MIA-BAL-IND is 6 MIA 6 BAL 7 CLE

 

 

[ndirish1978]

@HappyDays I want you to think about what you just proposed and then imagine pitching it to McDermott, the man who openly wept at finally winning the division in his fourth attempt. Do you think he is capable of throwing a game? I don't think throwing a game is consistent with his overall philosophy, which is built upon the notion that we "find a way" to win in any situation. Just my opinion. 

[Scott7975]

This team would never intentionally lose anything. Come on man. 

[Mr. WEO]

Miami is #1 in fewest points allowed.

[JackKemp]

Never rest until you win the Superbowl.

[nucci]

How do you tell the  players to lose on purpose? It'll never happen

[SWATeam]

I don't think they "intentionally" lose in this scenario, but it allows them to rest all their starters week 17 with the advantage of also getting a better playoff matchup.  No brainer really. 

1 minute ago, nucci said:

How do you tell the  players to lose on purpose? It'll never happen

They accomplish this goal by resting the starters.  The backups who play will obviously try.

[billieve420]

10 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Yeah I dont wanna be playing the Titans Week 1.. 

 

Out of all the potential playoff teams them and obviously KC. The Titans match up well with us and would rather them and KC take each other out and not see one of them till the AFC championship game. I wouldn't mind facing Indy, Miami, and Cleveland first in no specific order.

Edited December 22, 2020 by billieve420

[Hampton Josh fan]

 A decision to rest all crucial starters in the scenario where keeping the Ravens out of the playoffs, is the right move. We will be locked into the 2 seed and facing the 11 and 5 Steelers or Dolphins is a preferred path. . Now all we need is the Packers and Colts to win the games they will be favored in and Miami to take care of Vegas while we crush NE. That's a lot of outcomes to depend on. Probably won't happen. 

 

[TheCockSportif]

I somewhat expect the Pats game to be a chippy affair, in the sense that pulling the starters might be a good idea -- to ensure that star players aren't maimed before the playoffs.  I would be fine if the Bills roll limited personnel against the Dolphins.

 

However, given what this team has done over the past 4-6 weeks, intentionally losing a game would seem to be counterproductive and against the very foundations of which this team has been rebuilt.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

 A decision to rest all crucial starters in the scenario where keeping the Ravens out of the playoffs, is the right move. We will be locked into the 2 seed and facing the 11 and 5 Steelers or Dolphins is a preferred path. . Now all we need is the Packers and Colts to win the games they will be favored in and Miami to take care of Vegas while we crush NE. That's a lot of outcomes to depend on. Probably won't happen. 

 

 

It certainly seems unlikely that 4/4 scenarios will come to fruition, but who will be favored in all those games?

 

Bills/Pats - Bills

Dolphins/Raiders - Dolphins

Packer/Titans - Packers

Colts/Steelers - Colts

 

Add in a Browns victory over the Jets and this is also the nightmare scenario for the Ravens.

[jjmac]

I guess I just don’t understand why any of you are afraid of any other team. If that is your mindset then it is a really good idea to not be a coach or a GM. Did you not watch the  Bengals beat the Steelers?  

[SCBills]

Kind of wild... just played with the playoff simulator and if everything breaks they way I think it will in the last 2 weeks, the Bills play the Dolphins with the #2 spot locked up and rematch with the Dolphins if the Fins win against our backups.  Also, Browns/Steelers is for the division, where Browns either win the division or miss the playoffs, in which case, we would then play the Ravens.

[HappyDays]

46 minutes ago, jjmac said:

I guess I just don’t understand why any of you are afraid of any other team. If that is your mindset then it is a really good idea to not be a coach or a GM. Did you not watch the  Bengals beat the Steelers?  

 

I don't understand the opposite mindset where some posters wouldn't be satisfied unless we beat the 4 most dominant teams in the league at full health one after the other. One of the benefits of being the #2 seed is you get the chance to play weaker teams first. It doesn't make a possible Super Bowl appearance less meaningful.

 

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

This team would never intentionally lose anything. Come on man. 

 

All I'm saying is bench the starters in week 17 and there's a very good chance it leads to us playing the Dolphins in the wildcard round which is by far our most favorable matchup.

 

6 hours ago, TPS said:

If you're afraid to play the Ravens (or Titans) in R1

 

The only scenario I can find where we are the #2 seed and play the Titans in R1 is if they beat the Packers but lose to the Texans in week 17. I find that scenario very unlikely. If they lose to the Packers we're in really good shape. If they then beat the Texans we will most likely play the Dolphins in R1. If they lose to the Texans after losing to the Packers we would likely play the Ravens in R1 but the Titans would drop out of the playoffs entirely and we wouldn't have to face them at all. Titans are the last team I want to face besides the Chiefs so I'd accept that trade off.

Edited December 22, 2020 by HappyDays

[Hampton Josh fan]

44 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

It certainly seems unlikely that 4/4 scenarios will come to fruition, but who will be favored in all those games?

 

Bills/Pats - Bills

Dolphins/Raiders - Dolphins

Packer/Titans - Packers

Colts/Steelers - Colts

 

Add in a Browns victory over the Jets and this is also the nightmare scenario for the Ravens.

We can always hope. Who ever expected that Andy Dalton miracle that backed us into the playoffs in 17.

[Jay_Fixit]

12 hours ago, BillsVet said:

"Hear me out" to lead a thread off?  The TBD kiss of death.  

 

McD and this franchise aren't willingly losing anything.  

 

No need to worry about anything.

Hear me out is the equivalent of someone saying they sell some really great face cream that they want you to be a part of.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

It's not like you can BENCH all the starters anyway. I could see either not dressing some key guys; or pulling them after they establish a rythmn in the first half. We need to maintain our mojo and avoid unnecessarily exposing guys to injury. If the game is completely meaningless to seeding it would be negligence to expose Josh to injury other than trying to get some work in to maintain momentum.

 

Also, Diggs, Tre, Dawkins, Milano and  perhaps a couple others deserve the "special" treatment

Edited December 22, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[DrDawkinstein]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

How do you tell the  players to lose on purpose? It'll never happen

 

Play Barkley. Simple.

 

I'm not afraid of ANY team. Not the Chiefs, not the Titans, no one.

 

That said, I'd much rather play the Dolphins in the first round than the Ravens. So I get it. Other than that, I dont care.

[njbuff]

Yeah, because resting the starters in week 17 last year worked out so well.

 

Nope, full balls to the wall from here on out.

 

If the Bills are as good as we think they are, it shouldn’t matter who they play and you are playing with fate when you rest your starters that aren’t injured.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Yeah, because resting the starters in week 17 last year worked out so well.

 

Nope, full balls to the wall from here on out.

 

If the Bills are as good as we think they are, it shouldn’t matter who they play and you are playing with fate when you rest your starters that aren’t injured.

 

Should the Chiefs try to lose the last 2 games so they get the #2 seed and get rid of the Bye, since resting players is bad?

 

[Albany,n.y.]

13 hours ago, jjmac said:

The Hermanator disagrees. 
 

https://youtu.be/b5-iJUuPWis

 

Herm was always wrong, you play to win the Super Bowl.

[billsfan89]

Just hope that the Steelers and Titans lose and the Bills can take care of the Pats*. That locks the two seed up and makes week 17 meaningless. Which is kind of where the Bills want to be, they can sit Josh, Tre, Dawkins, D.Williams and a few other key players giving the team a defacto bye week (in a year where there is no bye week for the two seed sadly.) The NFL is as much an act of attrition (which is why the Bills depth is so critical) as it is a contest of talent. Getting to avoid KC until the AFCCG, having all your games be at home for the first two round and possibly all rounds if KC gets knocked off, and getting to rest a lot of players the last week of the regular season is setting your team up about as good as you can possibly get without being the one seed.

[njbuff]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Should the Chiefs try to lose the last 2 games so they get the #2 seed and get rid of the Bye, since resting players is bad?

 

There is no foolproof plan, but the plan the Bills tried last year failed miserably.

 

Keep the momentum rolling by playing full balls to the wall and taking on ALL comers.

[billsfan89]

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Should the Chiefs try to lose the last 2 games so they get the #2 seed and get rid of the Bye, since resting players is bad?

 

 

I really hate that the 7 team playoff format. I always envied the teams that got a bye week and for the first two seed to not get a bye week to possibly be the Bills is just so frustrating. 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, njbuff said:

There is no foolproof plan, but the plan the Bills tried last year failed miserably.

 

Keep the momentum rolling by playing full balls to the wall and taking on ALL comers.

 

We didn't come into that game flat though.  We played great in the first half.  We were simply a year away in terms of being ready to take that next step. 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by SCBills

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, njbuff said:

There is no foolproof plan, but the plan the Bills tried last year failed miserably.

 

Keep the momentum rolling by playing full balls to the wall and taking on ALL comers.

Just so long as you put yours on the anvil if it doesn't work out

[njbuff]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

Just hope that the Steelers and Titans lose and the Bills can take care of the Pats*. That locks the two seed up and makes week 17 meaningless. Which is kind of where the Bills want to be, they can sit Josh, Tre, Dawkins, D.Williams and a few other key players giving the team a defacto bye week (in a year where there is no bye week for the two seed sadly.) The NFL is as much an act of attrition (which is why the Bills depth is so critical) as it is a contest of talent. Getting to avoid KC until the AFCCG, having all your games be at home for the first two round and possibly all rounds if KC gets knocked off, and getting to rest a lot of players the last week of the regular season is setting your team up about as good as you can possibly get without being the one seed.

The Bills tried this last year and they lost to Houston anyways.

 

 

[billsfan89]

Just now, njbuff said:

The Bills tried this last year and they lost to Houston anyways.

 

 

 

Doesn't mean that it wasn't the right thing to do. They lost to Houston because Josh and the offense stalled out in the second half. In a year where only one team has a bye week getting a lot of your starters rested for a week can give you an advantage over 5 other teams who might not have that luxury. 

[njbuff]

It’s a good thing that none of us are McDermott.

 

He might see last years result as a total failure for resting his starters in week 17 and he might go all out no matter what we think even if the Bills are locked into the #2.

4 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Doesn't mean that it wasn't the right thing to do. They lost to Houston because Josh and the offense stalled out in the second half. In a year where only one team has a bye week getting a lot of your starters rested for a week can give you an advantage over 5 other teams who might not have that luxury. 

You can easily risk losing your edge in this scenario too.

 

Look at the Ravens last year. They rested their starters in their season finale and this is what basically cost them against Tennessee.