Dawson Knox and the TE position

[Buffalo Boy]

2 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Dude, it's been 5 games. And he's only been healthy for half of them.

And he’s fumbled and missed catches he shouldn’t...... which makes it a flashback 😉

He’s not showing progress , he’s showing mire of the same. Not buying his  stock

[BADOLBILZ]

 

It was a mistake playing him so much early yesterday.

 

They wanted to run the ball a lot early so he was the TE and when you then have he and Roberts both out in a pattern it greatly increases your odds for the kind of turnover that Roberts served up with that interception.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It was a mistake playing him so much early yesterday.

 

They wanted to run the ball a lot early so he was the TE and when you then have he and Roberts both out in a pattern it greatly increases your odds for the kind of turnover that Roberts served up with that interception.

 

Is that why Roberts was out there?  Because they had him in to run block?  That must be a freakin' tell.  Why not run a 1-2 set and bring in Kroft and Knox?

We don't seem to have a power-blocking run game anyway, our run game thrives (and I use that word loosely and not per common definition) on misdirection.

 

More bodies back there just mean more chances to trip on each other's feet.

 

I will say Roberts did have a beautiful sideline catch with oodles of Toe Drag Swag, but it didn't make up for him "setting" the ball right into the arms of the Nashville "OH" on our first series.  And yes, it was slightly behind him and could have been a better pass, but NFL receivers make that adjustment. 

Or for his poor decisions in the return game.  Or for his fumble.

[The Jokeman]

5 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Or the Jets for Herndon.

Herndon is overated. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Knox is sooooo raw. Patience is important here. The drops can be fixed. He also pancaked a guy on McKenzie’s touchdown. I think he has that potential to be a top guy and I think he will be. Remember, and I write this alot, but the guy was a high school QB who walked on at ole miss and became a tight end, and really didn't play a whole lot. He will get there. Tight ends sometimes take a while. Knox is Jeremy Shockey, who had a ton of issues with drops early in his career, but to me, this is the same guy. The upside is there and something we have not had at the position in a very long time. Just to add, I hope we see Tommy Sweeney again soon. He can help this team. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by MrEpsYtown

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Yeah, those have definitely run dry.  Just like, "Edmunds is only 22!"

Edmunds has plenty of game experience to start using the bust label.  The unknown is how hurt is he?  Maybe the guy is playing with one shoulder like Biscuit did one year. Maybe he needs off-season surgery.  If not then he has regressed badly.

 

As for Knox, he has barley played more than 16 games and in fact he is still learning the NFL TE position.  Too soon to call him a bust but certainly is ok to be worried about his career trajectory and catching ability.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Still time for Knox to turn it around but what's the story with Tommy Sweeney, is high on IR for the year then or what???

 

He's on PUP.  He's eligible to come off after week 6, then the Bills have several weeks to either activate him or place him on IR

[C.Biscuit97]

He is playing like a guy who had 0 tds in college.  Great athlete but I don’t know if he’s the long term answer.  

15 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Knox is sooooo raw. Patience is important here. The drops can be fixed. He also pancaked a guy on McKenzie’s touchdown. I think he has that potential to be a top guy and I think he will be. Remember, and I write this alot, but the guy was a high school QB who walked on at ole miss and became a tight end, and really didn't play a whole lot. He will get there. Tight ends sometimes take a while. Knox is Jeremy Shockey, who had a ton of issues with drops early in his career, but to me, this is the same guy. The upside is there and something we have not had at the position in a very long time. Just to add, I hope we see Tommy Sweeney again soon. He can help this team. 

Fair post but it’s the nfl.  How long are you supposed to be patient for? What if the guy just isn’t good enough?

[billsfan89]

Factoring out the Titans game (which was a total team loss, the defense gave up 3 TD's on field position of less than 30 yards, the offense didn't score a lot and turned it over.) The bigger issue with this team is defensive consistency. The defense shut down the Jets (as they should) but had a bit of mixed games against the Dolphins and Raiders and then had a horrid game against the Rams. Once again factoring out the Titans game the defense has been fairly mid-level. The offense even with a lackluster TE group has been good, putting up enough points in all of their games. 

 

Overall I would say that if there is a big piece to be added via trade I would think it is going to be on the defensive side of the ball.

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He is playing like a guy who had 0 tds in college.  Great athlete but I don’t know if he’s the long term answer.  

Fair post but it’s the nfl.  How long are you supposed to be patient for? What if the guy just isn’t good enough?

 

I think for a guy like Knox who has shown flashes of great potential but has a lot of raw growing pains you probably are looking at a three year process. Knox to me should be getting split snaps with Kroft this year and then year three is make or break for him. But in regards to 2020 the pass catching group isn't an issue. They have 4 legit WR's so there isn't a need for Knox/Kroft to be anything more than complementary targets (which I think they are.) The big addition this team needs will likely come on the defensive side.

[C.Biscuit97]

37 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Factoring out the Titans game (which was a total team loss, the defense gave up 3 TD's on field position of less than 30 yards, the offense didn't score a lot and turned it over.) The bigger issue with this team is defensive consistency. The defense shut down the Jets (as they should) but had a bit of mixed games against the Dolphins and Raiders and then had a horrid game against the Rams. Once again factoring out the Titans game the defense has been fairly mid-level. The offense even with a lackluster TE group has been good, putting up enough points in all of their games. 

 

Overall I would say that if there is a big piece to be added via trade I would think it is going to be on the defensive side of the ball.

 

I think for a guy like Knox who has shown flashes of great potential but has a lot of raw growing pains you probably are looking at a three year process. Knox to me should be getting split snaps with Kroft this year and then year three is make or break for him. But in regards to 2020 the pass catching group isn't an issue. They have 4 legit WR's so there isn't a need for Knox/Kroft to be anything more than complementary targets (which I think they are.) The big addition this team needs will likely come on the defensive side.

That’s fair but imagine what having a big consistent target in the middle of the field could do for this offense.  

[CLTbills]

17 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Herndon is overated. 

massively.

[TBBills Fan]

On 10/14/2020 at 10:31 AM, JohnNord said:

How long can we use the “potential” for players like Knox?

considering he was raw coming out and hes played in what about 16 games, he can get some more time to develop.

 

If we give up on him, he would be playing on another team right away

[Beast]

I'd rather see Tyler Kroft out there than Dawson Knox. If not for a couple stiff arms fans would be calling for this guy to be cut.

Edited October 15, 2020 by Beast

[OZBILLS]

Just give him a game of targets vs Jets.

 

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Turn him into a FB.  Let him use his athleticism and aggressive run style.  It’s a way to get the ball in his hands without expecting him to catch. Also should help the run game a lot.

[Real McClappy]

On 10/14/2020 at 1:52 PM, Bangarang said:

I don’t know how many times I can say this but Knox is an unreliable receiver. People want to pretend that he’s going to get better and blossom into a great TE but he looks nothing like someone ready to take on that role.

 

Frankly, with how good our WRs are I don’t mind not having a great TE. What bothers me is that we don’t even have one that I feel confident will catch the ball.

IDK, Kroft seems to snag what's thrown his way honestly. 

[jkeerie]

On 10/14/2020 at 6:14 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Like I said, I don't know what the "drop" criteria used by different organizations are, but that's 100% a ball I expect a good NFL TE to come down with.

 

 

That's pretty much spot on.  Knox catch % last season: 56%.  Catch % so far this season: 50%

 

 

He needs to go to the Josh Allen school of how to improve your stats.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That’s fair but imagine what having a big consistent target in the middle of the field could do for this offense.  

 

I've been imagining it for 3 years

 

My imagination went into overdrive during this off-season with some quality TE FA

 

Looks like I'll have to go on imagining

[SirAndrew]

23 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Knox is sooooo raw. Patience is important here. The drops can be fixed. He also pancaked a guy on McKenzie’s touchdown. I think he has that potential to be a top guy and I think he will be. Remember, and I write this alot, but the guy was a high school QB who walked on at ole miss and became a tight end, and really didn't play a whole lot. He will get there. Tight ends sometimes take a while. Knox is Jeremy Shockey, who had a ton of issues with drops early in his career, but to me, this is the same guy. The upside is there and something we have not had at the position in a very long time. Just to add, I hope we see Tommy Sweeney again soon. He can help this team. 

Knox has tons of potential, but at some point you need to become a reliable playmaker. I’m not buying the Shockey comparison, because Shockey was a Rookie of the Year, and All-Pro in his first season. He had drop issues as well, but made enough big plays to make up for it. Knox had the legendary Bengals run, and a nice catch against the Pats last season, and that’s his career. This season we only see him when he’s dropping passes. The good isn’t outweighing the bad, and that needs to at least even out by the end of this season. If he doesn’t show mass improvement by the end of this season, I’m not counting on him becoming a future star. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by SirAndrew

[pretzel logic]

TE is the weakest position on the Bill's squad this season.......Dawson Knox isnt ready for average play in the NFL;Furthermore,  Kroft is uneventfully every wk just like in Cincy....

 

..we are a playoff team with a talented roster.....this build through the draft babble doesnt apply when you are sniffing an AFC east title and a deep run........get the greatest TE possible in Orchard Park  ASAP

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/14/2020 at 9:28 AM, Jerry Jabber said:

I said it as well in the offseason that the Bills needed to upgrade the TE position. I felt Knox could be a decent backup TE, but his drops are preventing him from being a reliable and effective TE. Had posters tell me I was nuts and they were sure Knox would improve. So far, still the same result.

 

Pretty much with you on that.  Looking at the outsize role good TEs play for SF, KC, Bal Mia etc - and have played for NE - I want Josh to have that outlet

Counting on Knox to develop or a fully healed Kroft to come through didn't seem like enough of a plan.

 

The TE don't show to me as open that much, and Josh just doesn't seem to trust his TE that much when they are open. 

I assume there's a reason for that based on practice. 

 

And when he does trust them and target them, too often they let him down.

 

On 10/14/2020 at 9:24 AM, Gene1973 said:

That Cinci angry run is going to be his only career highlight... He's just not good enough.

 

Knox had a pretty "angry run" in the Tenn. game, turning a pass at the LOS into a 15 yd gain during which he flattened a LB and dragged 2 guys 3 yds.  We need that kind of play, and we'll need it increasingly as the season wears on and teams employ Tennessee's game plan against us.

 

But that was just after a target where he and Allen were clearly reading from different books about where he was supposed to be, and just before a high but catchable ball Knox got his hands on and failed to haul in.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/14/2020 at 9:34 AM, LanderPoke said:

Knox has hands of stone

 

Worse than that.  Knox has inconsistent hands. 

 

If Knox truly had hands of stone and sucked, it would be easy to move on.

 

The problem with Knox is that he'll mix brilliant contested catches and "angry runs", with failure to haul in tough but catchable balls and with routes where he clearly isn't where Allen expects him to be (I can't tell you who's wrong, but this year it seems Allen has a lot of other guys who are where he expects)

 

He does just enough brilliant stuff that the Bills keep waiting and hoping he'll change.

On 10/14/2020 at 9:25 AM, SCBills said:

Yea, when Allen is dealing with drops and penalties all game then Knox drops a massive gainer right in his hands... I just about lost it.   I'm pretty close to being done with him.  

 

Is this the play you're talking about?  Because it was a tough catch and thrown high, but Knox did get his hands on it and you expect an NFL TE to come down with it.

But it wasn't right in his hands.

 

[ALF]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Worse than that.  Knox has inconsistent hands. 

 

If Knox truly had hands of stone and sucked, it would be easy to move on.

 

The problem with Knox is that he'll mix brilliant contested catches and "angry runs", with failure to haul in tough but catchable balls and with routes where he clearly isn't where Allen expects him to be (I can't tell you who's wrong, but this year it seems Allen has a lot of other guys who are where he expects)

 

He does just enough brilliant stuff that the Bills keep waiting and hoping he'll change.

 

Watching Allen  progress keeps giving hope for Knox. I think he is willing to put in the hard work and is coachable. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, ALF said:

Watching Allen  progress keeps giving hope for Knox. I think he is willing to put in the hard work and is coachable. 

 

I will grant you that some aspects where Knox may need work - such as route running and route options - were challenging this year.

 

The other aspect is, Knox said he bought a juggs machine and caught like 200 balls a day - but that's not sufficient.  The question is could he set it, and position himself, to practice challenging catches or recruit someone to provide distractions.  Practice doesn't make perfect, the right practice makes perfect.

[SirAndrew]

18 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He is playing like a guy who had 0 tds in college.  Great athlete but I don’t know if he’s the long term answer.  

Fair post but it’s the nfl.  How long are you supposed to be patient for? What if the guy just isn’t good enough?

That’s my take as well. How long can you give a guy who continues to struggle with route running, blocking assignments, and catching the ball ?  I can’t think of a precedence for a TE becoming elite after looking like Knox his first two seasons. Plenty of young players become great after struggling early, but Knox hasn’t even put the numbers you’d hope from a young TE. He’s just a guy with a couple highlight reel plays to his name at this point. I’d forgive the drops and mental errors if he had more productivity. My greatest concern is the fact that I see absolutely zero improve from last season to this year. The slightest of progress might be encouraging, but we haven’t seen that. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

53 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

That’s my take as well. How long can you give a guy who continues to struggle with route running, blocking assignments, and catching the ball ?  I can’t think of a precedence for a TE becoming elite after looking like Knox his first two seasons. Plenty of young players become great after struggling early, but Knox hasn’t even put the numbers you’d hope from a young TE. He’s just a guy with a couple highlight reel plays to his name at this point. I’d forgive the drops and mental errors if he had more productivity. My greatest concern is the fact that I see absolutely zero improve from last season to this year. The slightest of progress might be encouraging, but we haven’t seen that. 

 

I'm not sure this bolded is true, FWIW.  Last season Knox was #20 for receiving yards among TE, but #5 of the TE under 25.  He had more yards than Baltimore's fine young TE Nick Boyle, and more yards/higher catch % than fellow rookie TJ Hockenson.  

 

This year, he ain't stepping up to be Dallas Goeddert, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, or Jonnu Smith, that's for sure.  I'm certainly not encouraged, but given the limited off-season practices and coaching, I think we may need to have some patience for improvement on young players. 

[SirAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure this bolded is true, FWIW.  Last season Knox was #20 for receiving yards among TE, but #5 of the TE under 25.  He had more yards than Baltimore's fine young TE Nick Boyle, and more yards/higher catch % than fellow rookie TJ Hockenson.  

 

This year, he ain't stepping up to be Dallas Goeddert, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, or Jonnu Smith, that's for sure.  I'm certainly not encouraged, but given the limited off-season practices and coaching, I think we may need to have some patience for improvement on young players. 

Fair enough, I didn’t realize Knox’s numbers were that decent compared to other guys. I could make the argument that his mental lapses hurt the team enough to negate some of those numbers. A guy Iike Nick Boyle might not have had Knox’s numbers, but did he cost his team with drops, missed blockers, and mental errors as often ? I see Knox as a guy who’s more likely to cost his team a win, than to actually help his team win at this point.  I realize that I’m probably too harsh on Knox, but his mistakes can be very costly, and not what you want on a “process” team. I also agree, that he’s taken a step back, and that’s concerning. I’m not saying he doesn’t belong on the team, he’s just not a guy I want as a starter at this point. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by SirAndrew

[Lurker]

8 hours ago, pretzel logic said:

TE is the weakest position on the Bill's squad this season.......

 

LB and D-line are much, much more problematic.    It would be good to have better TE play.    But it's essential to have better LB and D-Line play--and that will be the Bills downfall if they don't get it fixed...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

Fair enough, I didn’t realize Knox’s numbers were that decent compared to other guys. I could make the argument that his mental lapses hurt the team enough to negate some of those numbers. A guy Iike Nick Boyle might not have had Knox’s numbers, but did he cost his team with drops, missed blockers, and mental errors as often ? I see Knox as a guy who’s more likely to cost his team a win, than to actually help his team win at this point.  I realize that I’m probably too harsh on Knox, but his mistakes can be very costly, and not what you want on a “process” team. I also agree, that he’s taken a step back, and that’s concerning. I’m not saying he doesn’t belong on the team, he’s just not a guy I want as a starter at this point. 

 

The fumble vs. Miami certainly didn't help his cause.  Costly mistake.

 

IMO Knox's blocking and generally, route running have both taken a step this year. (I say right up front, I am not going to go through 3 games vs last season and grade all his blocks; neither am I saying he's now a sure bet on the blocking, but that's what I see).  It has only been 3 games for him in a 5 game season (he went out with concussion halfway through MIA, missed the Rams, and left at the half with a knee injury on Tues.)  3 games to me is not a lot of data to be encouraged or discouraged.

 

He's now credited with 2 drops, giving him still a 50% catch rate and 16.7% drops this season, not a step back from last year 56% catch and 20% drops due to small sample size, but surely not a big step forward.

 

One Mea Culpa: I may have been led down the "garden path" by the Tuesday Announcers, who pronounced that Knox "turned the wrong way" on an a pass play where it looked clear Allen and Knox weren't on the same page.  I now think it's possible that Vic Beasley may have tipped the pass.  It's not clear on the film, but the ball changes its spiral properties and its trajectory as it goes over Beasley's leaping outstretched fingers. 

 

 

[SirAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The fumble vs. Miami certainly didn't help his cause.  Costly mistake.

 

IMO Knox's blocking and generally, route running have both taken a step this year. (I say right up front, I am not going to go through 3 games vs last season and grade all his blocks; neither am I saying he's now a sure bet on the blocking, but that's what I see).  It has only been 3 games for him in a 5 game season (he went out with concussion halfway through MIA, missed the Rams, and left at the half with a knee injury on Tues.)  3 games to me is not a lot of data to be encouraged or discouraged.

 

He's now credited with 2 drops, giving him still a 50% catch rate and 16.7% drops this season, not a step back from last year 56% catch and 20% drops due to small sample size, but surely not a big step forward.

 

One Mea Culpa: I may have been led down the "garden path" by the Tuesday Announcers, who pronounced that Knox "turned the wrong way" on an a pass play where it looked clear Allen and Knox weren't on the same page.  I now think it's possible that Vic Beasley may have tipped the pass.  It's not clear on the film, but the ball changes its spiral properties and its trajectory as it goes over Beasley's leaping outstretched fingers. 

 

 

I think our offense can clearly function without an elite TE, I’d just like to see fewer mental mistakes from Knox. You have a great take, and it’s actually really tough to find a good TE. Knox can be productive, he plays well when he makes catches, and blocks well when he finds himself in the right position. I’d just like to see him increase his ability to put himself in the right spot on a more consistent basis. He’s clearly a player who has a lot to learn. It wouldn’t be a big deal if we had depth at that position, but Kroft definitely isn’t the answer. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I think our offense can clearly function without an elite TE, I’d just like to see fewer mental mistakes from Knox. You have a great take, and it’s actually really tough to find a good TE. Knox can be productive, he plays well when he makes catches, and blocks well when he finds himself in the right position. I’d just like to see him increase his ability to put himself in the right spot on a more consistent basis. He’s clearly a player who has a lot to learn. It wouldn’t be a big deal if we had depth at that position, but Kroft definitely isn’t the answer. 

 

LOL what is the question?

 

To me, Kroft is like Carmen Sandiego: "Where in the world is he?".  When I look it up, since Miami he's been on the field for an average of 50% of the offensive snaps. 

Where is he?  What's he doing?  He had 4 receptions on 5 targets and the winning TD vs the Rams, his best game by far as a Bill.  Next game vs the Raiders, 1 reception on 3 targets.  Half the offensive snaps vs. Tenn, no targets, no receptions.  Is he blocking? Is he running routes?  I have no idea.

 

 

 

 

 

[QB Bills]

It's crazy to me how many people are ready to run Knox out of town. He's had a grand total of 12 targets this year.

 

He's really talented and has shown the ability to make plays like no other tight end the Bills have had in the decades I've been watching this team. He's young and raw, and with what he can potentially bring to the table, that talent needs to be nurtured. It'd be understandable if he was a vet but he's only 23 years old! Give the kid a chance. I'd rather find out for sure that he's a bust here than see him become a superstar somewhere else because the Bills cut bait on him too early. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by QB Bills

[stuvian]

Opportunity Knox but Dawson hasn't answered the door. /rimshot

 

IMO you can't coach speed and you can't coach hands. I don't know what other young TEs are out there. I only know the old guys like Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen.

 

I always liked Maxx Williams in college. I think he's still in the NFL somewhere. Arizona?

[JohnNord]

On 10/15/2020 at 4:10 PM, TBBills Fan said:

considering he was raw coming out and hes played in what about 16 games, he can get some more time to develop.

 

If we give up on him, he would be playing on another team right away

I disagree.  At some point we need to see consistent progress.  Everyone loves to use the “raw” excuses but he’s had over a year in the league and by now we should see some signs of progress.  I’m not really seeing much other than inconsistency.  

[Norcalbillsfan]

The defense and the bills as a whole aren't good enough yet to be able to afford his drops, fumbles, and missed blocks. 

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 10/14/2020 at 12:08 PM, dpberr said:

Allen doesn't trust throwing passes to the TEs.  Most fans can understand why.  

 

That suggests to me that's a unit that could use an upgrade if it presents itself. 

I posted similar to this 2 years ago, Allen thrives off momentum and trust in his recievers. You can absolutely tell when a reciever makes a great catch that wasn't a great throw, Allen gets juiced and gets rolling. I think when Knox has a drop it hurts alot more than just loss of a down.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

TE for whatever reason take longer to develop, if he can keep improving as a blocker I have no problem giving him some time to develop. He has most of the tools to be a top 10 TE, his catching just needs to improve.

[Victory Formation]

I think Dawson Knox may develop into a good TE.. Very raw coming out, off the charts as far as athleticism and potential is concerned.. Sometimes you just have to let guys develop.. Not saying he will be good but I’m saying if he really puts in the effort he can be great.. He’s the Josh Allen of TEs..

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Victory Formation said:

I think Dawson Knox may develop into a good TE.. Very raw coming out, off the charts as far as athleticism and potential is concerned.. Sometimes you just have to let guys develop.. Not saying he will be good but I’m saying if he really puts in the effort he can be great.. He’s the Josh Allen of TEs..

 

OK, I can buy that...but how long do the Bills go without the important team contributions a good NFL TE can make while we're waiting to see? 

 

Allen's improvement could be seen in his 2nd season.

[Victory Formation]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I can buy that...but how long do the Bills go without the important team contributions a good NFL TE can make while we're waiting to see? 

 

Allen's improvement could be seen in his 2nd season.

Well, I think you give him 4 years. At the very least you have a great #2 option behind whomever. He’s on a very cheap deal so I see no harm in keeping him around.