Do the Bills look to sign Josh to a Long term contract this year?

[Alphadawg7]

I wouldn't really think Allen's team would be interested unless Allen accomplished something big this year like a SB birth or victory, or even an MVP year.  If he extends before he's truly arrived, he won't get the value he could get if he has a big playoff run and returns Bills to the SB.  

 

That being said, its possible an extension could be reached this offseason if Allens shows Beane and McD he's officially the long term guy, which he's obviously on a pace for right now.  I mean Allen seems to genuinely love being a Buffalo Bill and would think he wants to stay.  Plus Josh is so competitive, I think winning is more important to him than the biggest contract possible.  So I do think Allen and Beane will find common ground on a contract that is big but also not crippling to the Bills to field a championships contending team during the term of his contract.  But, I do think it will solely depend on how far the Bills go and just how big Allens season is for it to make sense or not this offseason.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Pump the brakes. Its been two games and he had a fumble that didn't stand due to a quick whistle and two interceptions dropped last week.  He is progressing very nicely but let's see a larger sample size.  Best way to win a SB is a QB on a cheap contract. No reason to pay too early unless he wins the SB this year.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I don’t intend to be rude.    5 pages on this?

 

Let me repeat myself from page 1 or 2. 
 

 

 

the Bills won’t have cap space until 2022!

 

There really isn’t much dead weight on the roster to cut anyone to free up 20 mil or more. 

 

Edited September 25, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Turk71]

  As Gunner already stated they can't talk extension until after the season. If they do extend him after the season the '21 cap space is minimal at this point so it would need to be a backloaded deal. 

  I fully expect Allen to be the Bills QB for many years to come but this extension talk will have to wait.

[PrimeTime101]

by doing 5th year option puts us in scary place where next year josh could easily test the market. I do not want to give him that option.. if hes top 5 qb by week 12 hes going to get paid.

[TBBills]

Win us a playoff game or two...

[PrimeTime101]

10 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Win us a playoff game or two...

lol....

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 9/23/2020 at 3:29 PM, billsfan89 said:

Hell no they don't take extend Josh until he is on the last year of his deal. First off, why not see exactly what Josh is before you reset the market? You have him under control the next 2 seasons after this year. Why not let Josh play out this season and next season so that you know fully what player you are investing in. Don't make the same mistake the Rams did fully paying Goff with 2 years left on his deal, when they could have waited one more year to fully make that investment. I love Josh but I think he should wait one more year for his extension. Not only would it give you the ability to have one more year of cheap QB play but you then would fully know what type of QB you are investing in.

 

Why not?

 

1) Signing him earlier means you get him cheaper.

 

2) You can push a lot of that guaranteed money into years 4 and 5 where he will likely be in Buffalo anyway. This will lower his average salary and in a worst-case scenario where he needs to be cut, lower the dead cap hit.

 

Also, the 5th year option is now fully guaranteed and for a QB will be 30mil plus. Instead of exercising that option , Beane should just present a longer extension with that 30 million built-in since we will be paying it either way.

 

Beane did this with White's extension and to a lesser extend with Dawkins. When announced, White's extension said 17.5 average, but if you look on spotrac it's around 14mil  in the later years due to pushing some money into this year and next.

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I don’t intend to be rude.    5 pages on this?

 

Let me repeat myself from page 1 or 2. 
 

 

 

the Bills won’t have cap space until 2022!

 

There really isn’t much dead weight on the roster to cut anyone to free up 20 mil or more. 

 

This is incorrect

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

 

Why not?

 

1) Signing him earlier means you get him cheaper.

 

2) You can push a lot of that guaranteed money into years 4 and 5 where he will likely be in Buffalo anyway. This will lower his average salary and in a worst-case scenario where he needs to be cut, lower the dead cap hit.

 

Also, the 5th year option is now fully guaranteed and for a QB will be 30mil plus. Instead of exercising that option , Beane should just present a longer extension with that 30 million built-in since we will be paying it either way.

 

 

Allen's 5th year option will be around 17.6 million, it is the franchise tag that is north of 30 million. You can still spread his contact out over the course of that 5th year option and lower the cap hit. Give me another year with a stacked roster around him. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Allen's 5th year option will be around 17.6 million, it is the franchise tag that is north of 30 million. You can still spread his contact out over the course of that 5th year option and lower the cap hit. Give me another year with a stacked roster around him. 

I was wrong, but you are also wrong. The tag would be around $24.8mil currently. The amount of the transition tag.  But that could go up if say, Dak Prescott signs a large extension. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/20/fifth-year-options-to-be-guaranteed-in-proposed-cba-no-longer-tied-to-draft-slot/amp/

 

 

[Putin]

I’m sure nobody is even thinking to sign him now because in a year or two they would have to pay him a lot more .

He needs to prove that our search for a QB is over and he’s our FRANCHISE for the next decade , 

And I’m sure they would be more then happy to make him the highest paid QB , 

I believe in my heart that he is that guy this year will know for sure !!!

GO BILLS !!!!

Edited September 25, 2020 by Putin

[MJS]

Gotta wait till the end of the season. If Allen has a true breakout year and we go deep in the playoffs, it will happen, and it should happen. Better to get it done sooner rather than later.

 

But I'm sure it will be structured so the big money kicks in after his 5th year, similar to Tre's contract.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Chemical said:

I was wrong, but you are also wrong. The tag would be around $24.8mil currently. The amount of the transition tag.  But that could go up if say, Dak Prescott signs a large extension. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/20/fifth-year-options-to-be-guaranteed-in-proposed-cba-no-longer-tied-to-draft-slot/amp/

 

 

 

Would the option changes be retroactive to current deals or for the newest first round picks? Genuinely curious as that does change the algebra a bit. Still I would rather wait to see what you have longer even if it makes it harder to do the cap. Too many times has this team overpaid a QB early (Tyrod and Fitz come to mind) not saying Josh isn't worth it but let's know exactly what he is before making the long term commitment.

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Would the option changes be retroactive to current deals or for the newest first round picks? Genuinely curious as that does change the algebra a bit. Still I would rather wait to see what you have longer even if it makes it harder to do the cap. Too many times has this team overpaid a QB early (Tyrod and Fitz come to mind) not saying Josh isn't worth it but let's know exactly what he is before making the long term commitment.

 

it starts with Allen/Edmunds draft. I get that. I was in your camp until I realized a couple weeks ago that they are going to at least give Allen the 5th year option unless he implodes this season. 
 

So giving him an extension instead of the option would be only slightly more risky. Once he’s done with year six there may not be much (relatively) guaranteed money left on his deal if it’s front loaded. But, if he ends up getting even better you have a good/great QB on a good deal. 
 

If you wait til after the 5th year option (w/ no extension) you risk having to pay him more than Dak and Lamar, possibly Baker if he bounces back. 
 

Either way works for me but I would rather take the risk. If you structure it properly and he tanks, you can just eat the dead cap for one year like Jacksonville did with Bortles. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I don’t intend to be rude.    5 pages on this?

 

Let me repeat myself from page 1 or 2. 
 

 

 

the Bills won’t have cap space until 2022!

 

There really isn’t much dead weight on the roster to cut anyone to free up 20 mil or more. 

 

 

They will not touch his 2021 salary or likely his 2022 salary as it would be under the option if they extend him after this year. The likelihood is they have to find $4-5m space to prorate some of the signing bonus onto the 2021 salary cap, but they don't have to have the big cap numbers rolling in until 2023...

[JohnNord]

I think it’s a given they pick up his option.  Based on his improvement throughout 2019 and the encouraging signs for the first 2 week, he has earned that.  
 

If all goes well, I would bet that the Bills will set him up with a long term contract sometime next season.   I honestly believe that the Bills are going to be 100% sure before they commit because as several have pointed out - it’s a huge hit to your cap.

 

Best case scenario - I would be willing to bet the Bills will follow a model like the Chiefs did with Mahomes.  If all goes well this season the Bills will look to extend Allen before the start of year 4.

 

Obviously this changes if the Bills struggle this season

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Chemical said:

it starts with Allen/Edmunds draft. I get that. I was in your camp until I realized a couple weeks ago that they are going to at least give Allen the 5th year option unless he implodes this season. 
 

So giving him an extension instead of the option would be only slightly more risky. Once he’s done with year six there may not be much (relatively) guaranteed money left on his deal if it’s front loaded. But, if he ends up getting even better you have a good/great QB on a good deal. 
 

If you wait til after the 5th year option (w/ no extension) you risk having to pay him more than Dak and Lamar, possibly Baker if he bounces back. 
 

Either way works for me but I would rather take the risk. If you structure it properly and he tanks, you can just eat the dead cap for one year like Jacksonville did with Bortles. 

 

Indeed that is the Goff / Wentz model. They were extended after 3 years but in such a way that only really tied those franchises in on them for 1 extra year beyond their rookie contracts. 2020 would have been Wetnz's 5th year option year and there is an out after 2021 that while expensive, with the way the hit would spread over two years is completely manageable for the sake of getting yourself out of a commitment to a Franchise QB you have lost faith in. Would mean $9m dead cap in 2022 and $15m dead cap in 2023. Big numbers, sure, but not numbers that completely kill your cap, especially if the way you replace Wentz is by going to the well again and drafting a rookie who is going to be dirt cheap those two years. In order to do that the Eagles (and the Rams did similar with Goff) had to frontload a lot of the big guaranteed money into what would have been the 5th year option year and the additional 6th and 7th year. That means big cap numbers for Wentz in 2020 and 2021 BUT crucially, if the Eagles don't regret their decision and decide Wentz is their guy and they don't need to get out..... then it is a very easy contract to re-work and spread some of those guarantees into the later years of the contract allowing you to continue building a competitive team around Wentz in 2021 and beyond. The Rams have actually already made their decision on Goff and gone to that well and done a renegotiation to start spreading that money. That allows them to sign Ramsey, Kupp and Woods to extensions.

 

I am not at all against doing a Went/Goff contract with Allen after this year. If you are a bit more confident you can do something more Mahomes like and do a deal that spreads the money right from the start.... Watson's deal is shorter and structured somewhere in the middle in terms of upfront vs long term spread (but feels very much like a deal you have to do when your Quarterback is slightly suspicious of committing to the organisation given the leadership situation which is a scenario the Bills won't face).

Edited September 25, 2020 by GunnerBill

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They will not touch his 2021 salary or likely his 2022 salary as it would be under the option if they extend him after this year. The likelihood is they have to find $4-5m space to prorate some of the signing bonus onto the 2021 salary cap, but they don't have to have the big cap numbers rolling in until 2023...

 

Correct.  They don't have to.

 

But they would have the funds as early as 2022.

 

Maybe the OP should change the title to WHEN will Josh get his new contract.  

[Don Otreply]

Not until the end of the season at the earliest, if they have any sense, and I am a JA fan, franchise status is not solidified in two very good outings. 

Now wait a little while and I’ll be proved wrong...

 

Go Bills!!!

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Not until the end of the season at the earliest, if they have any sense, and I am a JA fan, franchise status is not solidified in two very good outings. 

Now wait a little while and I’ll be proved wrong...

 

Go Bills!!!

 

They can't do before then by rule. 

[Don Otreply]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

They can't do before then by rule. 

So I was right! 😁 👍

[JMF2006]

If I were that kid I would not sign a new deal until it was absolutely necessary.

 

As soon as he gets big money the fans expectations could become entirely unreasonable.

 

If the so called fans don't think your living up to the huge $$  deal they turn on the player.

 

I think if he signed in the 20-25m range with lots of performance bonuses he may not suffer the wrath as much.

[Mr. WEO]

what? no.

[ColoradoBills]

12 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Allen's 5th year option will be around 17.6 million, it is the franchise tag that is north of 30 million. You can still spread his contact out over the course of that 5th year option and lower the cap hit. Give me another year with a stacked roster around him. 

 

Not sure where you got these numbers but Goff had a 5th year option worth 22.78 million.

Mahomes 5th year was 24.8 million.  Josh will be at least 26 million minimum.

 

http://www.profootballrumors.com/2019/04/2020-fifth-year-option-decision-tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

Mahomes 5th year is listed in the "Transations" listed on the right.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Not sure where you got these numbers but Goff had a 5th year option worth 22.78 million.

Mahomes 5th year was 24.8 million.  Josh will be at least 26 million minimum.

 

http://www.profootballrumors.com/2019/04/2020-fifth-year-option-decision-tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

Mahomes 5th year is listed in the "Transations" listed on the right.

 

The article I read was from 2019 so maybe the 5th year option is listed as 17.6 million. Not sure how fluid the number was/is. But I would wait to do an extension until after 2021. I get the idea of spreading out the hit using that 4th year to take on some money, but the window to win with this team is now and while I get that you want to think long term you can't pass up cap space in 2021 that could be used to add or retain other players to save cap space 3-4 year from now when the team might not be in contention. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The article I read was from 2019 so maybe the 5th year option is listed as 17.6 million. Not sure how fluid the number was/is. But I would wait to do an extension until after 2021. I get the idea of spreading out the hit using that 4th year to take on some money, but the window to win with this team is now and while I get that you want to think long term you can't pass up cap space in 2021 that could be used to add or retain other players to save cap space 3-4 year from now when the team might not be in contention. 

 

Personally I agree with what Beane has been doing with paying up front on contract now BUT I think it's wise not to do that with Allen yet.

Get the 5th year on the books and AFTER next year start working on a contract with Josh.  I agree with the great window for this and next year.

 

As soon as the 5th year in exercised by the Bills Josh cashes in on a guaranteed 25+ million contract.  I think he is patient enough to wait one year

for the big big bucks.  At least that's what I am hoping for.

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

If I were that kid I would not sign a new deal until it was absolutely necessary.

 

As soon as he gets big money the fans expectations could become entirely unreasonable.

 

If the so called fans don't think your living up to the huge $$  deal they turn on the player.

 

I think if he signed in the 20-25m range with lots of performance bonuses he may not suffer the wrath as much.

im good with plenty of wrath for like 15-20m more a year

 

you arent even in the ballpark with those numbers. 

[NoSaint]

34 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Personally I agree with what Beane has been doing with paying up front on contract now BUT I think it's wise not to do that with Allen yet.

Get the 5th year on the books and AFTER next year start working on a contract with Josh.  I agree with the great window for this and next year.

 

As soon as the 5th year in exercised by the Bills Josh cashes in on a guaranteed 25+ million contract.  I think he is patient enough to wait one year

for the big big bucks.  At least that's what I am hoping for.

 

the big thing will be whether he gets treated like a franchise guy or a starter with question marks. 
 

the pay rate is only so different but how you structure things can vary a lot. 
 

if he’s “the guy” you can manipulate the upfront numbers with a big signing bonus, a roster bonus that you intend to convert to signing etc.... to get him cash but push the hit.

 

if he’s not a resounding and confident answer then you get stuck with a more cash to cap structure where you can get out without major issues earlier 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

the big thing will be whether he gets treated like a franchise guy or a starter with question marks. 
 

the pay rate is only so different but how you structure things can vary a lot. 
 

if he’s “the guy” you can manipulate the upfront numbers with a big signing bonus, a roster bonus that you intend to convert to signing etc.... to get him cash but push the hit.

 

if he’s not a resounding and confident answer then you get stuck with a more cash to cap structure where you can get out without major issues earlier 

 

Come next May Josh will get the 5th year and have 45 million paid/guaranteed thru his 1st 5 years.

Your point is well taken and it really does behoove both parties to wait after the 4th year to even talk new contract.  IMO.

[Ya Digg?]

It's an insane amount of wishful thinking if you think he will sign for less than 30+ million a year because "he loves buffalo" or "loves the process" or anything like that.  That's the going rate for a franchise quarterback.  Beane knows this and that's what he is planning for.  Stop thinking he will sign for less - he won't, and let's be honest, he shouldn't if he's considered a franchise quarterback.  His agent won't let him sign for less and his teammates won't let him sign for less either.  Everyone in football knows it's a business, they all want the top guys to get paid.  If they are sold on him and think he's the franchise guy, the sooner they can sign him to an extension, the better

[billsfan89]

59 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Personally I agree with what Beane has been doing with paying up front on contract now BUT I think it's wise not to do that with Allen yet.

Get the 5th year on the books and AFTER next year start working on a contract with Josh.  I agree with the great window for this and next year.

 

As soon as the 5th year in exercised by the Bills Josh cashes in on a guaranteed 25+ million contract.  I think he is patient enough to wait one year

for the big big bucks.  At least that's what I am hoping for.

 

I worry that the Bills get so enamored with getting Josh to spread his extension over the last year of his rookie deal and the 5th year option that they end up digging into their 2021 and 2022 caps significantly and it impacts the short term ability to win. I also worry that they extend him after this season (assuming he turns in a good season) and then the league makes adjustments to Josh in 2021 and he isn't as effective and the Bills get locked into a big money deal with him for the next 3 seasons. I like Josh as much as any Bills fan but this team should for once finally be thinking short term. The window to win is open in 2020 and 2021, use it, worry about the rest later. 

 

 

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

It's an insane amount of wishful thinking if you think he will sign for less than 30+ million a year because "he loves buffalo" or "loves the process" or anything like that.  That's the going rate for a franchise quarterback.  Beane knows this and that's what he is planning for.  Stop thinking he will sign for less - he won't, and let's be honest, he shouldn't if he's considered a franchise quarterback.  His agent won't let him sign for less and his teammates won't let him sign for less either.  Everyone in football knows it's a business, they all want the top guys to get paid.  If they are sold on him and think he's the franchise guy, the sooner they can sign him to an extension, the better

yup. If he’s a top 5-10 statistical guy then $35m might be the actual hometown discount. We have people suggesting numbers closer to taysom hill than Jared Goff.

 

but if they were confident in him they could keep the cap hit low next year with the covid impacted cap dip 

 

you could give him $51m cash on a 11m cap hit with a 50m signing bonus and 1m salary as a bar napkin example but you’d be in that contract for 4 years before being able to bail if he flops. 
 

I’m not saying that’s a reasonable number/structure, but underscoring the process with easy values to wrap heads around (and type on a phone) 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I worry that the Bills get so enamored with getting Josh to spread his extension over the last year of his rookie deal and the 5th year option that they end up digging into their 2021 and 2022 caps significantly and it impacts the short term ability to win. I also worry that they extend him after this season (assuming he turns in a good season) and then the league makes adjustments to Josh in 2021 and he isn't as effective and the Bills get locked into a big money deal with him for the next 3 seasons. I like Josh as much as any Bills fan but this team should for once finally be thinking short term. The window to win is open in 2020 and 2021, use it, worry about the rest later. 

 

 

 

I don't think they are going to sign him early as I have been saying.

[billsfan89]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

yup. If he’s a top 5-10 statistical guy then $35m might be the actual hometown discount. We have people suggesting numbers closer to taysom hill than Jared Goff.

 

but if they were confident in him they could keep the cap hit low next year with the covid impacted cap dip 

 

you could give him $51m cash on a 11m cap hit with a 50m signing bonus and 1m salary as a bar napkin example but you’d be in that contract for 4 years before being able to bail if he flops. 
 

I’m not saying that’s a reasonable number/structure, but underscoring the process with easy values to wrap heads around (and type on a phone) 

 

People also forget that there is a big time pressure from the union for players to cash in on their chance to set the market. If Josh is a proven top 10 guy whenever he is negotiating his contract he isn't taking much of a discount. Tre had 2 years left on his contract and he was still getting the highest contract at his position (until Ramsey with only 1 year left topped him.) There is no way Josh takes a discount, at best he allows the structure of the deal to be friendly to Buffalo (maybe spread the hit out if he gets a deal going into next season or front load the deal in some way.) You always pay QB's no hometown discounts here.

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

People also forget that there is a big time pressure from the union for players to cash in on their chance to set the market. If Josh is a proven top 10 guy whenever he is negotiating his contract he isn't taking much of a discount. Tre had 2 years left on his contract and he was still getting the highest contract at his position (until Ramsey with only 1 year left topped him.) There is no way Josh takes a discount, at best he allows the structure of the deal to be friendly to Buffalo (maybe spread the hit out if he gets a deal going into next season or front load the deal in some way.) You always pay QB's no hometown discounts here.

honestly by hometown discount I mean maybe accept 35.5 instead of twisting arms for 36.25 kind of discussion. He might not pinch every last penny out of them but he’s not leaving much money on the table. 

 

tbe 20-25M number mentioned was quite silly 

[JMF2006]

6 hours ago, NoSaint said:

im good with plenty of wrath for like 15-20m more a year

 

you arent even in the ballpark with those numbers. 

 

I know he is going to get 35-40 m

 

I was just making a point that if it were a team friendly deal with lots of performance bonuses it might be better received.

[Victory Formation]

On 9/25/2020 at 8:38 AM, JMF2006 said:

If I were that kid I would not sign a new deal until it was absolutely necessary.

 

As soon as he gets big money the fans expectations could become entirely unreasonable.

 

If the so called fans don't think your living up to the huge $$  deal they turn on the player.

 

I think if he signed in the 20-25m range with lots of performance bonuses he may not suffer the wrath as much.

$20M-$25M is ultra disrespectful.. he’d get at least $30M... right above Tannehill and just behind Matt Ryan.. (about 10th overall)

[hmsmystic]

Let the year play out!  Maybe even the option year as well!

Don't rush into a franchise QB contract.  Sure it would be great for Josh, but NOT for the team at all

Overpaying too early would be a potential disaster, and the folks running the bills are too smart for that (now)

[Kmart128]

I dont know about a long term deal but it would be smart to extend him now before he gets to rich. However i dont think his agent would let him cause if Josh does end up breakingbout and continues his MVP performance then he can be in for a huge payday 

[ALF]

Lets see what the salary cap looks like after this season . Allen , Edmunds and Milano need to fit.

 

A bonus after a good season is a good idea.

Edited September 27, 2020 by ALF