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Why is this considered a "Make or Break, No Excuses" season for Josh?


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2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Nobody on this board maybe. But plenty of fans for each team would say the same thing about Mayfield and Darnold. Although, the argument there is that they haven't been surrounded with the coaching or talent that Josh has (coaching Mayfield's case, coaching and talent in Darnold's).

 

I don't know that anyone is expecting perfection from Josh this year, but he needs to show steady improvement. Not sure I'd throw him out if he looked exactly the same as last year. He just cant regress.

 

That said, if he shows the same amount of improvement this year as he did last year, we have our franchise QB.

 

Good post IMHO. 

 

Baker had a decent rookie season where he hit a lot of base metrics one looks for in a potential franchise guy QB - completion 63.8%, TD/INT 1.9, 7.7 ypa, 266 ypg

Those are all indicators of QB play one can win with, given a decent D

 

Josh took a nice step last year, but generally speaking one wants to see >60% completions and >200, even >250 ypg from a franchise type QB.

This year, they've added pieces at WR and RB and expect him to show he can take advantage of them.

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16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Good post IMHO. 

 

Baker had a decent rookie season where he hit a lot of base metrics one looks for in a potential franchise guy QB - completion 63.8%, TD/INT 1.9, 7.7 ypa, 266 ypg

Those are all indicators of QB play one can win with, given a decent D

 

Josh took a nice step last year, but generally speaking one wants to see >60% completions and >200, even >250 ypg from a franchise type QB.

This year, they've added pieces at WR and RB and expect him to show he can take advantage of them.

 

What about Mayfield's 2nd season?  It was far worse than his rookie season with far better weapons and a year under his belt.

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Without doubt, if he can’t hit 69% of his passes, he definitely needs to go.  
 

he’s not terrible, has a lot of upside but I’ve never heard a higher drafted player have more excuses made for him.  He is in his 3rd year in the system with a defense that carries the team.  This isn’t the 80s when receivers could get murdered running routes.  It’s the easiest time to play qb in the history of the nfl.  There is zero excuse to average less than 200 yards passing.  
 

bills fans have the worst standards for offensive play.  we had to score more than 16 points: game last year to win.  Such a low freakin bar.  

Oh, now he has to complete 69%? Ok...

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2 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.


I almost disagree with everything you said.  
 

Adding a Top 10 caliber WR isn’t just a roster move... it’s a major addition.  Everyone talks about Baker’s weapons, but take away Odell and your #1 is Landry - ain’t nobody scared of that.   Now add Odell and make Landry the #2, that’s a problem.  
 

Our OL was in its first year together, with a rookie RT.  Rookie tackles typically struggle and Ford was certainly no exception. We return 4/5 starters, Center-Left is pretty good and Ford is no longer a rookie. 

 

I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on rookies either... except maybe RB.  RB’s adjust quicker than any other position and can usually make a difference right out the gate - Look no further than Singletary last year.  I’m sure the Chiefs are counting on CEH.  
 

Tight Ends typically take some time to make an impact.  It should be expected that Knox will make somewhat of a jump.  
 

Every team has to count on presumptions in how players will play, every year.  I think we have reason to believe, at the very least: experience, a true #1 and non-corpse of a #2 RB will be a solid upgrade across the board.   
 


 

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 He  would have to fall off a cliff for this to be a “ break year “ and to go out and invest in another QB. 

He had significantly less playing time in college than both Mahomes and Jackson. Add that to the weak conference he was in and that reality is he is 1 year developmentally behind the others. So I think he does have an opportunity to grow more than your typical 3rd year guy. I think part of that is the homer In me but part of it is the logic of what I noticed over every 4 game increment over the last few years. Add the stability of the players and system from last year and I think he grows a lot this year. Next year he will be expected to be a full blown no mistake high effective QB. I fully expect 63% completion rate this year and an improved QBR.

 

I think his Achilles heal last year. that no one is talking about, is the high amount of penalties on offense and the fact that we were often in long down and distance situations which is always bad for QB effectiveness. Fix that and we have ourselves better play balance, better completion %, and more points conceptually. 

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1 minute ago, SCBills said:


I almost disagree with everything you said.  
 

Adding a Top 10 caliber WR isn’t just a roster move... it’s a major addition.  Everyone talks about Baker’s weapons, but take away Odell and your #1 is Landry - ain’t nobody scared of that.   Now add Odell and make Landry the #2, that’s a problem.  
 

Our OL was in its first year together, with a rookie RT.  Rookie tackles typically struggle and Ford was certainly no exception. We return 4/5 starters, Center-Left is pretty good and Ford is no longer a rookie. 

 

I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on rookies either... except maybe RB.  RB’s have adjust quicker than any other position and can usually make a difference right out the gate - Look no further than Singletary last year.  I’m sure the Chiefs are counting on CEH.  
 

Tight Ends typically take some time to make an impact.  It should be expected that Knox will make somewhat of a jump.  
 

Every team has to count on presumptions in how players will play, every year.  I think we have reason to believe, at the very least: experience, a true #1 and non-corpse of a #2 RB will big a solid upgrade across the board.  

 

All of that assuming Daboll is a good offensive coordinator and can use the pieces well, which is not a given.

 

And what does that mean to you? Do we have a top 10 offense? How many more points per game will we get?

 

Last year we were 24th in yards and 23rd in points per game at 19.6. Top 10 last year would have been at least 25.1 points a game.

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2 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.

 

Or an alternate way to view it is the 2020 offense position vs 2019 with assessment of talent:

     WR1 better Diggs > Brown  (significant upgrade)  now WR1 is excellent, was average

     WR2 better Brown > Beasley  (decent upgrade)    now WR2 is very good, was average

     WR3 better Beasley > ?Duke    (huge upgrade)      now WR2 is good, was terrible

     RBs better Singletary/Moss > Singletary/Gore  (significant upgrade because Gore stunk and couldn't convert short yardage)  now good, was average

     TE  better  2nd yr Knox > 1st yr Knox  (could be decent upgrade if hands improve as expected - biggest improvement from yr 1 to yr 2)  now decent was below avg

     OL better  OL in 2nd yr together > OL in first yr together  (continuity is significant in OL and biggest improvement from yr 1 to yr 2)  now slightly above avg, was avg

     QB 3rd yr Josh > 2nd yr Josh  (normal progression but it gets magnified because all the pieces around him are better)  

 

This is why some people (including myself) are excited and expecting a jump in the Offense.  And it is possible that Josh only incrementally improves but with all the improvements at the other positions the stats could skyrocket.  The benefits of being a decent QB in a good system (Dak-like)

    

 

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2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

FWIW 5th year options are only guaranteed for injury but your point is well taken.

The new CBA changed 5th year options to fully guaranteeing at the time the clause is executed.  The first season that goes into effect is next season so Allen’s option year would be fully guaranteed immediately. 

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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Without doubt, if he can’t hit 69% of his passes, he definitely needs to go.  
 

he’s not terrible, has a lot of upside but I’ve never heard a higher drafted player have more excuses made for him.  He is in his 3rd year in the system with a defense that carries the team.  This isn’t the 80s when receivers could get murdered running routes.  It’s the easiest time to play qb in the history of the nfl.  There is zero excuse to average less than 200 yards passing.  
 

bills fans have the worst standards for offensive play.  we had to score more than 16 points: game last year to win.  Such a low freakin bar.  

 

69%?!?!?!?

 

Besides it being a "nice" number ?, that is a ludicrous demand.

 

Only 5 QBs were at 69% or higher last season. Drew Brees (74.3), Derek Carr (70.4), Ryan Tannehill (70.3), Kirk Cousins (69.1), Jimmy Garappolo (69.1).

 

You can have Carr and Tannehill. They make that list just because they always check down and never make anything happen themselves. You can keep that Trent Edwards garbage. On 3rd and Long, he better not check down to a covered RB just to keep his percentage up.

 

Completion percentage, in a vacuum, is a worthless stat. Josh finished dead last in completion percentage last year, but I wouldnt say he was anywhere near the worst QB in the league.

 

Agreed on more yards and DEFINITELY more points.

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15 minutes ago, MJS said:

All of that assuming Daboll is a good offensive coordinator and can use the pieces well, which is not a given.

 

And what does that mean to you? Do we have a top 10 offense? How many more points per game will we get?

 

Last year we were 24th in yards and 23rd in points per game at 19.6. Top 10 last year would have been at least 25.1 points a game.


I think we have the potential to field a Top 10 Offense, and should be middle of the pack on the lower end of the expectation scale.  
 

We drafted Allen to be able to score from anywhere.  We’ve now surrounded him with big play guys and two legitimate RB’s. If (big if) he figures out the deep ball, given how strong he makes us in the red zone to begin with, I think we’ll see a big jump in numbers. 
 

 

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11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:


Big time.  I don’t know what he had a chance to be, but he’s going to be completely ruined as a QB when the Jest are done with him. 


I checked out their forum and they are spinning so hard on Perriman, Mims, Crowder and Herndon that even I thought for a second, dang... those dudes might actually be good.  
 

I actually do like Crowder and think Herndon has upside.   I also like the idea of tall, fast WR’s - until I remembered Perriman has all of 4 good games in his career and Mims is a rookie. 
 

That OL is what will make or break Sam this year.  He’s always been a guy who makes bad decisions under pressure and that doesn’t seem to be changing through his first two years.  
 

 

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17 minutes ago, SCBills said:


I think we have the potential to field a Top 10 Offense, and should be middle of the pack on the lower end of the expectation scale.  
 

We drafted Allen to be able to score from anywhere.  We’ve now surrounded him with big play guys and two legitimate RB’s. If (big if) he figures out the deep ball, given how strong he makes us in the red zone to begin with, I think we’ll see a big jump in numbers. 

Ok. I think they could be top 10 on the very high side and like 20th on the low side. But I expect them to be more middle of the pack, which is a huge upgrade from last year, honestly.

 

As I've said, I think our offensive line is below average and unfortunately our playoff game illustrated to the rest of the league that they can get to Allen almost immediately if they rush him. He had multiple defenders in his face unblocked on almost every key down in the 2nd half. We have a lot of good depth on the line, but a couple below average starters.

 

The question is, will fans be happy with an average offense, or are they going to be angry if we aren't top 10? With all the hype the offense is getting, it seems like fans will be disappointed with an average offense even though average is a huge improvement.

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2 hours ago, klos63 said:

probably more after year 4.

I think serious conversations start after year 3. It doesn't mean that its a done deal but if an organization loses confidence they need to plan for drafting their guy. Its too late to wait until after year 4 to deal with a disappointing outcome especially after you've assembled all the other elements of the team (like we have). That said, Josh is going to step up big time this year, I'm not even remotely concerned.

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3 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.


I would focus on this. If our offense can’t be really good (much better than really bad in 2019) by basically giving your 2 year QB another offseason (third year), he probably isn’t a very good QB. At the very least, I think he needs to be able to take, what I would call an average supporting in the NFL (2019) and pull them out of the basement. If another player can help improve those chances great. But he’s still got to do it. 

 

 

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If he isn't able to take a positive step forward, he'll join a long line of Bills QBs over the last 25 years. This is a tough business and every year there's a new crop of potential first ballot Hall of Famers. If Josh isn't the guy, they shouldn't pass on the next Mahomes a 2nd time.

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4 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.

Umm.  If you compare the rosters

 

2019 RB:  Gore, SIngletary                2020 RB:  Singletary,  Moss           Moss is younger, faster and more powerful than Gore at this stage of his career

2019 WR:  Beasley, Brown and McKenzie        2020  WR:   Diggs,  Brown, Beasley, McKenzie,    Gabriel      -   Gabriel college production far outweigh the rest of the crew

2019 and 2020 OL -   Return their starters.   But they have a full year of together.  We have also added solid backups who can start. 

2019 and 2020 TE -   Last year we saw very little of Kroft due to injury.   This year  Knox and Sweeney enter their 2nd year thirsting for more opportunities.

 

Just returning 10 of the 11 starters gives them continuity 

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4 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Baker Mayfield has accomplished nothing in the same amount of time with significantly more talent.

Darnold has accomplished less than nothing in the same amount of time.

Jackson has an MVP to his name but also has (2) first rd. playoff exits with an uber talented roster.

Watson also has (2) first rd. playoff exits, (should be 3?) and choked away a 24 point lead on the way to a 51-31 drubbing.

 

Nobody is talking about these guys in a make or break scenario. Shoot, Watson will be one of the highest paid QBs pretty soon.

 

I expect Josh to make a significant step forward with the talent surrounding him but in no way do I expect him to be shown the door if it doesn't happen. He's already accomplished  more than the (2) "Pro ready" QBs drafted before him. Seems like everyone is so hell bent on seeing him fail to protect the consensus predraft opinion that he would never be an accurate and caliber franchise QB. Yet nobody is defecating on Lamar when many thought he was a RB/WR gadget player.

 

What say you? Thoughts? In your opinion is it truly make or break for Josh this year?


Also, don’t forget that some “experts” were high on Josh Rosen and even some on this board wanted the Bills to draft him.  He looks like a bust at this point.

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6 minutes ago, ColeB said:


Also, don’t forget that some “experts” were high on Josh Rosen and even some on this board wanted the Bills to draft him.  He looks like a bust at this point.

In fairness to the kid, he was drafted into an awful situation and they quit on him after a single year with a dumpster fire of a team. Doing well there would've taken a herculean effort, and I can't ever recall something like that happening to a first round QB after his first season. The situation in which he found himself in Miami was no better, and arguably worse given the presence of Fitzpatrick. He'll probably need to hang around the league for quite a while now if he's ever going to get another real shot.

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15 minutes ago, ColeB said:


Also, don’t forget that some “experts” were high on Josh Rosen and even some on this board wanted the Bills to draft him.  He looks like a bust at this point.

Almost everyone on this board wanted Rosen over Allen.

 

I predict Josh has a breakout year, makes numerous long connections with Diggs and Bills win first playoff game in decades.  2/3 of the remaining anti-Joshers will finally raise the white flag and succumb to his awesomeness.

 

I also predict that the remaining 1/3 of anti-Joshers will continue to prefer being consistently wrong to accepting reality.

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52 minutes ago, ColeB said:


Also, don’t forget that some “experts” were high on Josh Rosen and even some on this board wanted the Bills to draft him.  He looks like a bust at this point.

 

I cop to that for the reason that one was "the most pro ready" and the other was "the biggest project."

 

I have since come to the conclusion to let Beane do the drafting.

 

I don't see this year as top-12 or cut bait since he does not seem close to done developing... i'd guess the median case for him is top-12 by the end of contract 1, but still with upside. 

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5 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

 Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.

 

We can’t look at them like they are just chess pieces. We are not just adding a rook to the board (replacing a less capable rook).  They are people. Many of them are developing young players. If Knox and Ford make big jumps we look like a different team. Josh is expected to continue to improve to some degree. I’m sure he’ll be better, and I hope we get to see it for a full season. 

 

It’s not about adding a single player. It’s about developing a team. I love McD and our front office. 

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Can someone explain to me what "no excuses" means?

 

If on the first play of the season, Diggs and Brown run into each other on a crossing pattern and are both knocked out for the season, does that mean Josh sucks when the passing game falls apart?

 

 

 

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Diggs is an important piece and I don't think it's easy to quantify how a true #1 can have a cascading effect on the rest of the offense. 

 

It's a make or break year for Allen because:

 

- This is about as good of supporting cast on offense as you can expect (to be clear, not saying they're great or amazing, but year in / year out you can't expect much better) so if he can't do it with these guys...then he's not going to be able to do it most years

- QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years generally don't go on to become 'good' QBs

- Continuity on offense

- A clear and fixable problem (deep ball) that could change the entire offense (defenses have to back up and open up more allowing easier reads)

- Diggs, even if he only meets lower expectations here, is a game changer. His abilities line up in this offense and Allen's problem areas. He pushes two very good receivers down the depth chart into roles they should be able to flourish in as well.

- If he can't read defenses or continues to struggle under pressure that's not likely en 'experience' issue any more

 

If Allen can't get the offense out of the basement this year then it's pretty unlikely he's going to...History isn't kind to QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years. 

 

I say all of this as a huge Allen fan. He's a gamer and I love his mentality, but he's got to show he can take an offense to the middle of the pack in the NFL.

 

10 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Can someone explain to me what "no excuses" means?

 

If on the first play of the season, Diggs and Brown run into each other on a crossing pattern and are both knocked out for the season, does that mean Josh sucks when the passing game falls apart?

 

Yes, if that happened then that would be an extremely tough situation to overcome, but regardless of supporting cast..a QB needs to perform at some point and QBs who have had poor stats and offenses for 3 years rarely 'turn it around' even with a better supporting cast. 

Edited by jeremy2020
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30 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

I cop to that for the reason that one was "the most pro ready" and the other was "the biggest project."

 

I have since come to the conclusion to let Beane do the drafting.

 

I don't see this year as top-12 or cut bait since he does not seem close to done developing... i'd guess the median case for him is top-12 by the end of contract 1, but still with upside. 

 

Exactly. This is why I didn't want Allen. Even if he reaches his ceiling how many years will it take? 

 

This thread is a good example of why it's a bad idea to take project QB. The OP wants to give him more time, ok but we are wasting a pretty good defense while we wait for the offense to catch up. 

 

Then once he is good(hopefully) he is paid over 30 million dollars a year making it hard to keep talent around him. Will the excuses be back then?

 

If we had Mahomes, Watson, or Jackson (in the right system) last year we are super bowl contenders with our defense. 

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2 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Exactly. This is why I didn't want Allen. Even if he reaches his ceiling how many years will it take? 

 

This thread is a good example of why it's a bad idea to take project QB. The OP wants to give him more time, ok but we are wasting a pretty good defense while we wait for the offense to catch up. 

 

Then once he is good(hopefully) he is paid over 30 million dollars a year making it hard to keep talent around him. Will the excuses be back then?

 

If we had Mahomes, Watson, or Jackson (in the right system) last year we are super bowl contenders with our defense. 

 

If only the Bills had taken the most pro ready QB at the time like you wanted.  IF, IF, IF...

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Just now, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

If only the Bills had taken the most pro ready QB at the time like you wanted.  IF, IF, IF...

 

well we would already know either way at least right? Or would you be making excuses for Rosen too?

 

I can hear it now 

 

"He had to come in for Peterman unexpectedly as a rookie and last year was only his second year but he seemed to be improving. He still only 23 years old and UCLA seemed to be playing a pro style offense but he wasn't making pre-snap reads. He deserves at least two more years to grow."

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Just now, jeremy2020 said:

 

If you pointed out all the times he's wrong...you won't have time to do anything else.

 

When else? 

1 minute ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

If you pointed out all the times he's wrong...you won't have time to do anything else.

 

Neither of you has said anything about quarterback drafting/development philosophy. Just a couple personal attacks. You're bringing less than nothing to the table.

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2 minutes ago, Chemical said:

Neither of you has said anything about quarterback drafting/development philosophy. Just a couple personal attacks. You're bringing less than nothing to the table.

 

It's not a personal attack to point out that you're wrong...

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