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Which Bills Starter is most likely to regress in 2020?


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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

See I don’t see Beasley losing any reps. Those other receivers playing will be on the outside. I suppose that they could slide Diggs inside but I don’t see that at the expense of Beasley. It may be with Beasley in a 4 wide set. 

there are only so many snaps in a season.we added diggs davis and hodges and haven’t lost anybody yet. even considering  duke losing all his reps to davis (not a given at all), barring injuries, brown and beasley have to lose reps no? the numbers don’t add up with beasley and brown not losing any reps.

Edited by IgotBILLStopay
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9 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

there are only so many snaps in a season.we added diggs davis and hodges and haven’t lost anybody yet. even considering  duke losing all his reps to davis (not a given at all), barring injuries, brown and beasley have to lose reps no? the numbers don’t add up with beasley and brown not losing any reps.

Brown could lose some reps I suppose. Beasley plays when they are in a 3 wide and he is in the slot. I don’t foresee that changing when they go to 3 wide. He plays a different position than Davis.

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12 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Regress is such a strong word but as much as I hate to say it, Tre White.  I think he's really going to be challenged this year.  He has made a real name for himself, is a marked man, and we will face some top tier offenses this year.  I think we will see a drop off from him, maybe not major, but "uncharacteristic."

That would make his price drop?  likely not....

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I am a little worried about Milano. Matt has started to show a little bit of injuries here and there. Couple that with his size and every game/year is more punishment,  am keeping my eye on him. He didn’t play great last year while dealing with the hammie. 

Yes, but I also am looking for his former safety instincts to kick in and get a few picks......he is worth watching for various factors.  He is, of course, a fitness freak, and when right is what we want out there.

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34 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Brown could lose some reps I suppose. Beasley plays when they are in a 3 wide and he is in the slot. I don’t foresee that changing when they go to 3 wide. He plays a different position than Davis.

it is a misconception that Beasley only played the slot last year for the Bills. He played outside around 30% of the time (NFL advanced stars). Bring injury, he is pretty much not going to get those snaps with Diggs on the field.

 

now fantasy analytics have become quite sophisticated. almost every fantasy site had a “sell” on Beasley after the Diggs trade. see for example

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=8249

 

Quote

The Diggs trade is great news for the Buffalo offense but far less promising for Beasley's target volume. The former Cowboy was mostly limited to slot work in three-wide formations early last season, eventually progressing to a role in two-WR sets as he played more than 80 percent of snaps in five of his final six regular-season games. Beasley once again figures to be limited to three-receiver alignments now that Diggs is in the picture, so a reprisal of last year's 106 targets will be tricky if his teammates stay healthy.

 

 

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3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Heck, won’t be a popular one but Diggs has to be a candidate to possibly step back coming to an all new offense with everything going on.

 

 

And no Adam Thielen on the other side of the O-line...

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I agree on Hughes, but he played hurt in 2019 so I'm not sure. I also think Brown and Beasley get fewer targets, but will still play at a high level. Diggs is another candidate. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he can duplicate what he did in Minnesota with better passers.

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I think Singletary will have a similar stat sheet in 2020 as he did in 2019. Moss will be getting lots of carries in short yardage and goal line situations so Singletary’s numbers will suffer. I could see Moss with 800 yds and 10 TDS while Singletary gets 800 yds with 4 or 5 TDS. Should be a really competitive competition at RB this year.

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Without looking at a single post, I say......

 

Offense: Tyler Kroft

 

Defense: Matt Milano

 

There really is nowhere to go but up for Kroft, but can he sustain an entire season? Dawson Knox & Tommy Sweeney will only improve, so Kroft has got to step up.

 

What concerns me about Milano is that I think he has reached his ceiling. I don't know if he can get any better than he has. This is his contract year so that could mean that he could have a big season.

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21 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

This.   I think poyer extension was a bad idea.  He will be benched this year. 

I think opposite.  He excels with help

 

who will poyer be benched for?

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

And no Adam Thielen on the other side of the O-line...

 

good point.  but I think Brown and Beasley will draw enough attention. 

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1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

Without looking at a single post, I say......

 

Offense: Tyler Kroft

 

Defense: Matt Milano

 

There really is nowhere to go but up for Kroft, but can he sustain an entire season? Dawson Knox & Tommy Sweeney will only improve, so Kroft has got to step up.

 

What concerns me about Milano is that I think he has reached his ceiling. I don't know if he can get any better than he has. This is his contract year so that could mean that he could have a big season.

Milano was an animal before suffering a dislocated ankle December 2018. I think he'll be better after a normal offseason, at least conditioning wise. 

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19 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Ed Oliver is off to a bad start.  

Yeah, it looks like he's going to miss some games, and when he does come back he may be in McDermott's dog house for a while.  That generally doesn't do good things for a young player's development.

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9 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

there are only so many snaps in a season.we added diggs davis and hodges and haven’t lost anybody yet. even considering  duke losing all his reps to davis (not a given at all), barring injuries, brown and beasley have to lose reps no? the numbers don’t add up with beasley and brown not losing any reps.

The entire receivers group, wr, te, rb, will all need to understand they will be sharing targets, and who ever is hot will get the most one would assume... there I go assuming again...

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3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

who will poyer be benched for?

 

good point.  but I think Brown and Beasley will draw enough attention. 

 

Beasely?  He's in the slot--teams aren't going to worry about him with Diggs on the outside.

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I don’t buy into Brown, Beasley, Singletary, and the rest “losing reps” because of Diggs a s Moss.  They can still get the same plays, targets and carries as last year.  
 

If Diggs and Moss make us better that’s translates into more long drives, more offensive plays, more first downs, more TDS, and more opportunities for the offense.  

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I don't like using stats entirely as a measure of progress/regression. For example, Tre White could become a complete lock-down corner this year and teams wouldn't even throw his way. If his INTs drop, we can't say he "regressed". Similarly, our WRs won't have regressed just because we added a new #1 and taken some receptions away from them. I do like the point someone made that Diggs could actually increase receptions for other players by moving the chains or by drawing coverage. The question is, are they actually playing worse?

 

Quality of play is measured a lot more by non-statistical measures in many cases.

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On 5/24/2020 at 2:13 AM, John from Riverside said:

I think Devin is gonna be even better because the OL will return intact.

 

My pick is John Brown.....because he isnt going to get the amount of passes thrown his way with a true number 1 on the field.  If Brown can make the most out of his catches he could be our Peerless Price

Oh please let him be our James Lofton ?

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On 5/23/2020 at 9:36 PM, Steve Billieve said:

I almost don't want to say it, but Devin's rookie year was so good . . . regression to the mean . . .

 

What are you using as the mean since he only has one data point?  So he will do what he did last year?

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