Astro's "Pick-Six" Discussing the upcoming 2020 Bills Draft

[JustWinPlease]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

there are a bunch. Depends what round you really want to take a RB. I like the kid from LSU in the 3rd or Eno Benjamin in the 3rd 

3rd or 4th round seems about right.

 

I'll check them out, thank you.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, JustWinPlease said:

3rd or 4th round seems about right.

 

I'll check them out, thank you.

If Dobbins is there in the 2nd I think the value is just to much to pass (though I hate taking RBs in 1st or 2nd). There are more check my RB Primer I have the names in Tiers (based on my early grades)

[JustWinPlease]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

If Dobbins is there in the 2nd I think the value is just to much to pass (though I hate taking RBs in 1st or 2nd). There are more check my RB Primer I have the names in Tiers (based on my early grades)

How do I find that?

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, JustWinPlease said:

How do I find that?

Last one I did. It is secondary but all others linked. Caveat though this is before declaring deadline so some like the Bama Kid and Clemson Kid are going back to school. 
 

 

[colin]

i know someone tried to talk me down, but i think shennault is the next TO.

[billykay]

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I really really like what I am reading and the highlights I have seen of Shenault...he is big, strong, fast and quick and can be used in so many ways.  Outside, Slot, out of the backfield, etc...I think he would be a great fit as an almost X-factor in our offense.  And he has a cool ass name hahaha

Why isn't he projected to go before we pick?  Are there any negatives?

[DJB]

Problem with Shenault is he isn't a great WR. Hes a good WR who is also good at playing RB.

 

There are much better pure WR in this draft and I think we need to target a pure WR and not a gadget guy like Shenault 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, billykay said:

Why isn't he projected to go before we pick?  Are there any negatives?

He was a jack of all trades in CO. So that hurt his technique development as a WR and has a raw Route Tree. Also there are questions about his long speed. 

18 minutes ago, DJB said:

Problem with Shenault is he isn't a great WR. Hes a good WR who is also good at playing RB.

 

There are much better pure WR in this draft and I think we need to target a pure WR and not a gadget guy like Shenault 

Who?  Easy to say Pure WRs at 22 without naming names

Edited January 27, 2020 by MAJBobby

[H2o]

Shenault = Cordarrelle Patterson 2.0

[fansince88]

Great read from Dean as always. Thanks for sharing.

Edited January 28, 2020 by fansince88

[TigerJ]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

He's really not as fast as some people are making him to be

 

He isn't slow but he isn't an NFL burner

 

There are lots more polished pure WRs in the class. I think he falls down the board a bit

I've seen opinions among national observers that suggest Shenault is on the raw side.  What they like is his versatility.  I'm assume the combine will help settle the issue of speed.

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, H2o said:

Shenault = Cordarrelle Patterson 2.0

 

 

Yeah and it's not like people can't go and look at Patterson highlights from Tennessee on Youtube..............it's all the same stuff as Shenault...........except of course Patterson is a bit bigger and it was all done against SEC defenses.

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

He was a jack of all trades in CO. So that hurt his technique development as a WR and has a raw Route Tree. Also there are questions about his long speed. 

Who?  Easy to say Pure WRs at 22 without naming names

 

The deepest WR draft in history and you want to pick a guy with no projectable WR tape in round 1?   And comp him to DK Metcalf?   Two totally different players.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah and it's not like people can't go and look at Patterson highlights from Tennessee on Youtube..............it's all the same stuff as Shenault...........except of course Patterson is a bit bigger and it was all done against SEC defenses.

 

 

The deepest WR draft in history and you want to pick a guy with no projectable WR tape in round 1?   And comp him to DK Metcalf?   Two totally different players.

yes I have him graded as a 1st round prospect. So his value is right in line with our draft position. 
 

I compared him based off the raw Route tree. And better than comparing him to a TE or a QB like other have 

Edited January 28, 2020 by MAJBobby

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I've seen opinions among national observers that suggest Shenault is on the raw side.  What they like is his versatility.  I'm assume the combine will help settle the issue of speed.

Yea he is versatile but he is no where close to a NFL #1 rn.. he isn't polished at all 

 

There are guys who will get better separation and run crisper routes and hand catch the ball 

 

He is a great runner once the ball gets in his hand but he isn't an elite reciever at the moment

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

I like a RT in the second round since there is no way Ford can be handed the RT position.

If we take EDGE in rounds 5B and 6B it means Beane will have to buy one in FA.  These guys would be depth, like Daryl Johnson last year.

 

I wonder if they are fine with the Ford/Ty combo at RT and will resign Spain and just keep the o-line together (while maybe adding a depth player or two.) I know fans weren't too thrilled with Ford's play and the general consensus is that Ty was decent but an upgrade is desirable. However I think that Ford played better down the stretch after Ty got hurt although he was still a bit up and down. 

I wonder where they go with the RT and LG position. Dawkins at LT is a lock, Mitch at Center is a lock and Feliciano at RG is a lock but the LG and RT positions are definitely up in the air. They could resign Spain or let Spain walk (save cap space) and kick Cody in at LG and then draft or sign an RT to compete with Ty at RT. Or they could resign Spain and keep things together? 

 

I think given the track record of McBeane's drafting they are likely to stick with Ford/Ty at RT and resign Spain. As a fan I am OK with either option. I think the O-line last year was good not great but good and I think Ford could improve enough to help the O-line get better along with the O-line having a year together which will result in better chemistry. But I am never against any attempt to add more to the O-line. 

[TFBillsfan]

The Bills need to add playmakers in FA and thru the draft this season. They have the cap space and draft capital to do it. The roster is solid but in dire need of playmakers. IMO, this is the year to be aggressive! Go get the JAG DE, an experienced taller WR, add depth and resign Shaq, Spain and key players. The OL “should” be better in their second year together. WR, CB, and power RB In the draft. If Josh is the franchise QB for the future, you have two years to be aggressive before his contract comes up.

[Happy]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I wonder if they are fine with the Ford/Ty combo at RT and will resign Spain and just keep the o-line together (while maybe adding a depth player or two.) I know fans weren't too thrilled with Ford's play and the general consensus is that Ty was decent but an upgrade is desirable. However I think that Ford played better down the stretch after Ty got hurt although he was still a bit up and down. 

I wonder where they go with the RT and LG position. Dawkins at LT is a lock, Mitch at Center is a lock and Feliciano at RG is a lock but the LG and RT positions are definitely up in the air. They could resign Spain or let Spain walk (save cap space) and kick Cody in at LG and then draft or sign an RT to compete with Ty at RT. Or they could resign Spain and keep things together? 

 

I think given the track record of McBeane's drafting they are likely to stick with Ford/Ty at RT and resign Spain. As a fan I am OK with either option. I think the O-line last year was good not great but good and I think Ford could improve enough to help the O-line get better along with the O-line having a year together which will result in better chemistry. But I am never against any attempt to add more to the O-line. 

 

I think the problem with Ty is that he will be 34 and is an injury concern, especially with his age.  RT was a concern, especially with Ty hurt; Ford had his ups and downs.  I'm not too sure McD and Beane can go into camp without competition at the RT spot, so I would be very happy with a RT in the second round.  I also think they re-sign Spain, since he was solid at LT and cap space isn't a problem.

Having a year together will help, but if there are questions at a position, those have to be answered.  Maybe Ford shows growth at camp at RT, or maybe he gets moved to LT, in which case Spain or Ford could possibly be trade bait at some point.

I'm not sure if the problems on the line were the line trying to gel, experience (Dawkins and Ford) at the tackle positions, or blocking scheme.  Whatever it was, that has to get fixed.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

yes I have him graded as a 1st round prospect. So his value is right in line with our draft position. 
 

I compared him based off the raw Route tree. And better than comparing him to a TE or a QB like other have 

 

 

I won't be surprised if someone takes him in round 1............Patterson went round 1 as well..........but that 2013 class was a very slow group of WR's so he got pushed up.    Hopkins, Woods and Allen all came from that class though and the latter two went AFTER Patterson......and they have all made a good living as playmakers by being technicians.   That is literally the cautionary tale teams should take into this draft.   Don't' take a dude early who hasn't put something that resembles pro wide receiver on tape.   Save the shots in the dark for later. Seriously go back and comp the Patterson tape against Shenault.

 

As for the DK Metcalf thing...........DK can get away with a limited route tree because he has a 7' wingspan at TE height and huge hands with unbelievable deep speed.  He's a matchup disaster for DB's.  Shenault is much smaller and a pretty average catch radius and I doubt he comes close to the speed of Metcalf.    Teams passing on Metcalf for two rounds blew my mind.    It was like passing on Mahomes...........yeah maybe they turn out to be a bust but there is no way you can expect BETTER physical talent than Mahomes or Metcalf had put on tape or during the draft process.

[pimaruto]

Any thoughts on Pittman? Does his 4 punt blocks intrigue you in any way?

[DJB]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

He was a jack of all trades in CO. So that hurt his technique development as a WR and has a raw Route Tree. Also there are questions about his long speed. 

Who?  Easy to say Pure WRs at 22 without naming names

 

I've long questioned Shenault speed. The shuttle, 3 cone and 40 are going to be key.  My guess is he runs slow. 

 

To me he looks like hes going to be a better fantasy WR then actual NFL WR if that makes sense. 

 

I mean obviously Lamb and Jeudy but they aren't in our range. 

 

Jefferson and Higgins are more of a pure WR and I prefer them over Shenault too. I also like Aiyuk too

Edited January 28, 2020 by DJB

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

 

Sounds about right. Regarding the positioning, this is pretty much the identical trade-up that the Bills made back in 2018 to get Edmunds (going from 22 to 16, I believe). That trade required the #3 (1st pick of the 3rd round) that we acquired from the Browns for Tyrod.

 

 

Yup, but it's worth remembering that that year was when they had acquired a ton of draft capital ahead of going after a QB with a tradeup. Yet even that year, when they made two big tradeups, they didn't leave themselves an empty round (by that I mean they didn't leave themselves without a pick in a round unless they had already picked twice the round before. So they traded a 3rd for Edmunds but they still had a 3rd left over for grabbing Harrison Phillips.

 

It's only been three years but Beane has never emptied out a round unless he'd already had two picks the round before. 

 

My guess is that he sees the first three rounds, perhaps even four, as tiers, out of each of which he really wants a player. And that it would take an exceptional opportunity for him to give up a shot at one of those tiers. They've got two 5ths and three 6ths, though, and they've showed themselves very willing to trade picks when they multiples in the same round. I think they're really conscious of those tiers.

 

And that is exactly how Astro arranged this very interesting info.

 

[The Jokeman]

4 hours ago, pimaruto said:

Any thoughts on Pittman? Does his 4 punt blocks intrigue you in any way?

I like Pittman in Round 2.

[JaCrispy]

9 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I've seen opinions among national observers that suggest Shenault is on the raw side.  What they like is his versatility.  I'm assume the combine will help settle the issue of speed.

If Shenalt is as raw as they say I could see the Bills drafting him in addition to getting a FA WR.

[BeastMaster]

Shenault may or may not be a good receiver at this point in terms of route running and such, but this doesn't mean he can't become one.

 

It'll be up to Beane to do his homework when/if he visits with him and see what he's all about. 

 

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Yea he is versatile but he is no where close to a NFL #1 rn.. he isn't polished at all 

 

There are guys who will get better separation and run crisper routes and hand catch the ball 

 

He is a great runner once the ball gets in his hand but he isn't an elite reciever at the moment

716,

 

Who is the best attainable fit in the class for the Bills?

[Coach Tuesday]

I’m most concerned about Shenault’s apparent unwillingness to run block.  That’s a dealbreaker for me.

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

If Shenalt is as raw as they say I could see the Bills drafting him in addition to getting a FA WR.

The free agent landscape is pretty bad when it comes to WRs. Robby Anderson might be the best of the group age/contract wise. Yet he might go elsewhere to be a  top 2 option where here he'd be 3rd behind Brown and Beasley. I could see adding a guy like Geronimo Allison who brings size and can be a role player but he might not be much better than Foster. I'm not a Shenalt fan as he just reminds me so much of Sammy Watkins. I guess am gun shy taking another guy like that. 

37 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

716,

 

Who is the best attainable fit in the class for the Bills?

I'd imagine most would side with Tee Higgins. Yet to me with as deep this WR class is I think we can find a decent WR in Round 2 (Michael Pittman Jr is my favorite option) and shore up other needs in the 1st. 

[DCOrange]

15 hours ago, billykay said:

Why isn't he projected to go before we pick?  Are there any negatives?

 

To the first question, it's an insanely deep WR class. This means that (1) WRs could slide as there won't be a rush to grab one immediately and or (2) he can be a very good prospect while still only being like the #5 or worse WR in the class.

 

To the second,

• Against press coverage, he basically just tries to use his speed to run around the DB on the outside. It worked in college, but I think he's average in terms of speed at the next level, so he'll need to learn other techniques if he wants to play as an X WR.
• He doesn't sell his routes or separate very well on his cuts.
• In the games I watched, he looked allergic to blocking (though Astro specifically says blocking is one of Shenault's strengths so maybe I just caught the wrong games) and when the play was designed to the other side of the field, he let the defense know right off the snap by half-assing his decoy routes.
• He's had issues with injuries.
• He needs a lot of work on the technical parts of the job and he didn't seem to improve on that this season (his fans will say this is because he was hurt, but for whatever it's worth, he was adamant that he was pretty much 100% healthy this year and simply didn't play well).

That all probably comes off as harsh, and I am admittedly not a fan of using our first round pick on him (at least with our current roster construction), but I think the case FOR taking him would be:

• Daboll loves versatility in his players; think of the times we'd go no-huddle this year and have our FB, TEs, and RBs line up out wide and then either snap the ball or motion them back in and stuff. Shenault has lined up literally everywhere; he's a perfect fit for where it seems Daboll wants the offense to eventually get to.
• Buffalo was among the worst in the league in terms of creating plays after the catch this year; that is probably Shenault's best skill at the moment.
• Shenault has physically grown over the past few years; he was listed at 6'0" 195 when he was in high school and is now listed at 6'2" 220. It's not easy to develop your skills while you're still physically growing, so he might be sort of a late-bloomer development wise (and is already pretty good where he is right now).
• I don't think he's the athletic freak that others seem to (some think he'll run in the 4.3's, I think he'll be like a 4.53-4.58), but he's tall, strong, and pretty fast; he checks basically all of the physical boxes Beane likely has for a WR.
• Until his skills develop more, I think he can still be utilized in an AJ Brown type role; keep it simple, get the ball in his hands through quick hitters/manufactured passes, and let him make plays after the catch.
• If we sign/trade for an established X receiver, we won't need Shenault to be a go-to guy right away and can let him develop his skills while still being successful early on. Added bonus that if we have the X spot filled, we can essentially have Shenault fill in as the backup at the X, Y, and Z.

If we do bring in an X WR, I would be a lot more in favor of taking Shenault for us. Absent that though, there will be other WRs available at #22 and probably at #54 that I would prefer over him.

Edited January 28, 2020 by DCOrange

[Playoffs?]

Shenault will be gone by the time we pick. Just a hunch. 

[billsfan89]

23 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I think the problem with Ty is that he will be 34 and is an injury concern, especially with his age.  RT was a concern, especially with Ty hurt; Ford had his ups and downs.  I'm not too sure McD and Beane can go into camp without competition at the RT spot, so I would be very happy with a RT in the second round.  I also think they re-sign Spain, since he was solid at LT and cap space isn't a problem.

Having a year together will help, but if there are questions at a position, those have to be answered.  Maybe Ford shows growth at camp at RT, or maybe he gets moved to LT, in which case Spain or Ford could possibly be trade bait at some point.

I'm not sure if the problems on the line were the line trying to gel, experience (Dawkins and Ford) at the tackle positions, or blocking scheme.  Whatever it was, that has to get fixed.

 

Ty is older but he only has 66 games played and 17 starts in the NFL. He didn’t start his pro career until 24 years old and even then he played 3 years in arena football and several years as a backup. So the mileage on him isn’t as bad as a typical 34 year old he even came back from his injury this year to play so I would understand them feeling comfortable with Ty as a plan B in case Ford struggles. 

 

I agree that they should resign Spain but then I think a lot of fans are worried that if they resign Spain that means they likely are sticking with the Ty/Ford combo at RT (as it would be unlikely they would want Ford and Ty on the bench.) Personally I trust this regimes ability to assess the talent on the roster and if they feel good with the Ty/Ford combo then I think that’s the best move. 

 

I don’t think they are going with a RT in round 2 unless they let Spain walk (Then I see them kicking Ford inside and drafting a tackle up high) but I think the more prudent move would be to resign Spain and stick with the Ford/Ty combo. Now if they resigned Spain and drafted a RT in round 2 I wouldn’t hate it as I am almost always in support of improving the O-line and it would make the Bills O-line by far the deepest in the league.

 

But in a league with limited draft resources and cap space I think the regime resigning Spain would be a sign that they are comfortable with what they have and would more likely add a mid round pick and add depth as opposed to adding a starting piece. 

[billspro]

On 1/27/2020 at 10:31 AM, matter2003 said:

I really really like what I am reading and the highlights I have seen of Shenault...he is big, strong, fast and quick and can be used in so many ways.  Outside, Slot, out of the backfield, etc...I think he would be a great fit as an almost X-factor in our offense.  And he has a cool ass name hahaha

I think he can be what Watkins was supposed to be.

[Dr. Who]

58 minutes ago, billspro said:

I think he can be what Watkins was supposed to be.

Man, I really wanted the Watkins that was supposed to be, but now I'm gun shy about that kind of player.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Dr. Who

[Seoulofstone]

I think both sides of the argument for Laviska are pretty well laid out here. Joe Marino of TDN loves LS as the Bills pick and wrote about it today:

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/finding-the-right-wr-for-bills-to-target-in-2020-draft

 

I think I'm wary. I agree that he may take time to develop as a route runner. He reminds me a lot of DJ Moore who struggled with routes as a rookie and fumbled often.  The difference is Moore is an impressive athlete who tested well. On the other hand LS scores TDs and has good hands and YAC. That is what the Bills need.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Seoulofstone

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Charles Romes]

On 1/27/2020 at 2:03 PM, Lurker said:

I worry that an x-factor "RB playing WR" who's a great athlete but not (yet) a great route runner isn't the guy to step in an help Josh right away.   Shenault can do a lot of things, but that's sort of a problem for me, in that this offense is very complex and Josh is still learning how to anticipate/read defenses.

 

I'd much rather get a WR who's a good route runner and has the size we need than a gadget-type who might take a while to settle into the NFL..

 

 

Beane has shown he will go after the athlete with a high ceiling rather than the guy with lots of reps, edmunds, Allen, Knox.  One of his worst picks, zay, was a high reps supposedly high floor player.  

[Dkollidas]

2 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

 

 

Beane has shown he will go after the athlete with a high ceiling rather than the guy with lots of reps, edmunds, Allen, Knox.  One of his worst picks, zay, was a high reps supposedly high floor player.  

Beane wasn’t here when Zay was picked. That was McDermott with Whaley as the GM. 
 

But I believe you are correct that Beane has shown he’ll go after the guys with the athletic upside. The examples sre

like you posted above. Although Tremaine, for as young as he was when picked, still had a good amount of playing time. 
 

I do believe 1st round at least they’ll Likely  go high ceiling guy. 
 

Not sure if he falls but I could see them liking Epenesa a lot. Big bodied defensive end who uses a lot of power moves. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Dkollidas

[Gigs]

On 1/27/2020 at 2:03 PM, Lurker said:

I worry that an x-factor "RB playing WR" who's a great athlete but not (yet) a great route runner isn't the guy to step in an help Josh right away.   Shenault can do a lot of things, but that's sort of a problem for me, in that this offense is very complex and Josh is still learning how to anticipate/read defenses.

 

I'd much rather get a WR who's a good route runner and has the size we need than a gadget-type who might take a while to settle into the NFL...

Van Jefferson. Watched him all year down here. Gets open and runs crisp routes. 6'2 200 will need to add some weight, and isnt very fast, but is definitely pro ready. He will go later too

[Lurker]

10 minutes ago, Gigs said:

Van Jefferson. Watched him all year down here. Gets open and runs crisp routes. 6'2 200 will need to add some weight, and isnt very fast, but is definitely pro ready. He will go later too

 

I'm on board with that.  He's my favorite middle-round WR.   He'd be able to contribute from day one with his precise route running skills, something that even Beasley and Brown are only good (not great) at, IMO.    He's an accomplished gunner on ST as well... 

[Gigs]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

I'm on board with that.  He's my favorite middle-round WR.   He'd be able to contribute from day one with his precise route running skills, something that even Beasley and Brown are only good (not great) at, IMO.    He's an accomplished gunner on ST as well... 

Same. I also like Greenard on DE. My only knock is his durability. He can create pressure but missed some time this year. Dudes a gamer. 

 

Either way with how deep this wr class is we should sit and draft later on unless we have a legit shot at someone like Jeudy or Lamb

[MAJBobby]