Rc2catch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: I guess we will wait and see. But I am pretty good with my value predictions. I agree you are generally spot on for some of these. But go look at my comment in the under the radar thread. Shaqs numbers this year vs chandler jones, Khalil Mack, and nick Bosa. His snaps at 480 this year vs those guys and the stats with them. He was on pace for elite level numbers this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Dr.Sack said: 4 years 40m / 16m guaranteed, 1m ProBowl bonus, 1m 10 sack bonus, 1m 40tackle bonus, $2m 1st team AllPro bonus. You should be his agent I think Beane would go for something close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZBILLS Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, JMF2006 said: He had one decent year. Beane won't over pay him. Everyone has "one decent year" here it seems. Nobody wants to pay anyone. Revolving door of development 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, OZBILLS said: Pay that man. You can't let every player leave once it's time to get paid. You let the players leave if their contract exceeds what your perceived value is for that player. Beane and McDermott would love to keep him as a rotational defensive end at a reasonable contract. But I doubt that's going to happen because Shaq thinks he's elite. He'll test free agency and get little interest and then go sign a one year prove it deal somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Rc2catch said: I agree you are generally spot on for some of these. But go look at my comment in the under the radar thread. Shaqs numbers this year vs chandler jones, Khalil Mack, and nick Bosa. His snaps at 480 this year vs those guys and the stats with them. He was on pace for elite level numbers this year. yep but expand his snaps his role expands. And that can lead to regression. He doesn’t have good tool box of pass rushes. Limited combo or counters. better run defender than pass defender. This isn’t like a Clowney playing out of position. He has played both OLB and DE. to be honest if Shaq is smart he comes to Bills and says 2 years 19M. Stay in the system and actually show he has developed as a pass rusher. I get you saying someone will over pay. And always could happen. Doesn’t change the fact what is real value is. And if they (any team) do overpay they will be taking heat from their fan base immediately as he will not come close to living up to anything in the double digit AVvs Edited January 10, 2020 by MAJBobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, OZBILLS said: Everyone has "one decent year" here it seems. Nobody wants to pay anyone. Revolving door of development You pay the ones who deserve it. You love on from the ones who will get overpaid. There's nothing to gain by overpaying a bunch of average players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, OZBILLS said: Everyone has "one decent year" here it seems. Nobody wants to pay anyone. Revolving door of development He looked like a draft bust his first 2 years. Flashed a bit last year(2018) not enough for them to pull the trigger on a 5th year option. Had a decent 2019 as a rotational player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: 4 years 40m / 16m guaranteed, 1m ProBowl bonus, 1m 10 sack bonus, 1m 40tackle bonus, $2m 1st team AllPro bonus. No way should we pay a rotational guy 10 million a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZBILLS Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 He will no doubt leave and head to Kansas. Has the Raglands about him. I want him here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 48 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Time to date a Pegula daughter like Croom Is Croom still following the Triple H career plan? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, MJS said: You let the players leave if their contract exceeds what your perceived value is for that player. Beane and McDermott would love to keep him as a rotational defensive end at a reasonable contract. But I doubt that's going to happen because Shaq thinks he's elite. He'll test free agency and get little interest and then go sign a one year prove it deal somewhere. I think that something like this is likely. He’d be a guy I’d like to have on a 2 year deal (that could become a 1 year deal) while I see how my DE draft pick this year pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: yep but expand his snaps his role expands. And that can lead to regression. He doesn’t have good tool box of pass rushes. Limited combo or counters. better run defender than pass defender. This isn’t like a Clowney playing out of position. He has played both OLB and DE. to be honest if Shaq is smart he comes to Bills and says 2 years 19M. Stay in the system and actually show he has developed as a pass rusher. I get you saying someone will over pay. And always could happen. Doesn’t change the fact what is real value is. And if they (any team) do overpay they will be taking heat from their fan base immediately as he will not come close to living up to anything in the double digit AVvs Oh I agree. Open up the snap count and can he survive the season? He was hurt to end this year which sucked for the playoff game. I can absolutely see an Indianapolis or someone jump in with a crazy offer though. Im one of his biggest fans, but I don’t want to pay him 10 million a year. Honestly I don’t want to pay him more than 6 if he’s rotating with Murphy or on that side of the line. He’s better from the other side against the left tackle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, OZBILLS said: He will no doubt leave and head to Kansas. Has the Raglands about him. I want him here. He finally got to 100 tackles this year....for his career;) 4 minutes ago, Warcodered said: Is Croom still following the Triple H career plan? VP in 2 or 3 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvbillsfan Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Is Rachel Bush his agent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rc2catch said: Oh I agree. Open up the snap count and can he survive the season? He was hurt to end this year which sucked for the playoff game. I can absolutely see an Indianapolis or someone jump in with a crazy offer though. Im one of his biggest fans, but I don’t want to pay him 10 million a year. Honestly I don’t want to pay him more than 6 if he’s rotating with Murphy or on that side of the line. He’s better from the other side against the left tackle. The reality is if they could get him at his value of 8 you replace Trent with him. to be Honest the one that I really think is goi g to leave with a massive over pay is Phillips. DCs and GMs are not going to be able to resist those sack numbers coming from the interior and will completely over look how much of a liability he is against the run. IMO out of the two Shaq and Phillips, Phillips has more of a potential to be overpaid relative to true value than Lawson will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I checked in with Spotrac and they’ve done a MV for him: 4 years at $7.6M per https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/ So that 2 year, $16M contract a poster mentioned is a pretty solid estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hope he gets it $$$. No need to be load in public. That’s what you pay agents for. Stay humble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I have been thinking that he is as good as gone ever since they turned down the 5th year option..If he is testing the market, then someone will offer him more than Beane.. Don’t dislike the guy and wish him all the best at his new team... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, OZBILLS said: Everyone has "one decent year" here it seems. Nobody wants to pay anyone. Revolving door of development Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbRiddicksTDLeap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I wonder if Beane feel like Daryl Johnson has come along enough the take Lawson’s roll in the rotation. That would certainly free up at least a roster spot for an edge rusher in the draft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, MAJBobby said: His Value is about 8M a year AVV. If he wants more than that he isn't getting it from ANYONE A 4 year 31M with about 15 GTD is what he is worth Yeah, that seems about right. I'd be happy for the Bills to bring him back for about that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Shaq really wan't much the first three years....this year.....middle of the pack at best. I won't feel bad if he is gone....he was a disappointment for the Bills. they won't pay him big. some other team might, lot of bad judgement out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZBILLS Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Huh? It feels like every time it's time to pay someone....everyone is like "oh, it's only one good year...let them go". Pay. This. Man :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) Phillips is the one gonna get massively over-payed IMO. he is worth probably about 7M a Year. Some GM is going to see his interior sack numbers and give him likely 10-11M a year. this is why I would like to lock him up before the tampering Combine Edited January 10, 2020 by MAJBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 51 minutes ago, Lurker said: Ménage à trois... Kinky! But as they say, if I wanted to disappoint two people at once, I’d just go to dinner with my parents! My biggest worry is that the effort and results were most apparent in the contract year. What happens when he gets paid? I’d like to think he just keeps getting better, but...... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, OZBILLS said: It feels like every time it's time to pay someone....everyone is like "oh, it's only one good year...let them go". Pay. This. Man :0 Not everyone. You might get some who have that opinion, but it’s not like it’s everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, BringBackFlutie said: Then I inevitably get drunk and spend it on tips or something. It Tips still dancing at the Sundowner? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 If Spotrac's valuation of Shaq Lawson at just under $8million per year is accurate, I want him back. He may not be a 10 sack per year guy, but he's a highly valuable rotational piece for our defensive line. An outstanding run stopper, an aptitude for batting down passes, and a fun, lighthearted disposition that I think fits in well in our locker room. So long as it's not a massive overpay -- and $8mil/year doesn't look like that to me -- I want him back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said: See ya!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: The reality is if they could get him at his value of 8 you replace Trent with him. to be Honest the one that I really think is goi g to leave with a massive over pay is Phillips. DCs and GMs are not going to be able to resist those sack numbers coming from the interior and will completely over look how much of a liability he is against the run. IMO out of the two Shaq and Phillips, Phillips has more of a potential to be overpaid relative to true value than Lawson will Yeah and Phillips snap count wasn’t extremely high either. I can totally see Phillips getting a top 5 payday for his position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Time to date a Pegula daughter like Croom NCCC. (No Croom Can Catch. Commas sold separately.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenboy81 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 tackles the whole game when Bills needed him most. He's a goner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 In the NFL when you might only have a chance at one big contract you should get as much as you can (or at least get as much you can in guarantees) so I can't blame the guy. While I am sure he made nice money on his rookie deal he needs to set himself up for life with this next deal. I think you shouldn't overpay for Shaq, I think ideally the Bills will come in at 8 million aav whereas he is going to want 10 million aav. I think ultimately they split the difference and settle at 9 million aav. But free agency in the NFL can get whacky so who knows. I think keeping Phillips is more pressing but having Shaq locked in at a reasonable rate is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaaBills Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Time to date a Pegula daughter like Croom What I'm trying to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: I checked in with Spotrac and they’ve done a MV for him: 4 years at $7.6M per https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/ So that 2 year, $16M contract a poster mentioned is a pretty solid estimate. Does anyone know how accurate Spotrac is when it comes to their "Market Value" estimations? Like comparing what they thought players would get to what they actually got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, billsfan89 said: Does anyone know how accurate Spotrac is when it comes to their "Market Value" estimations? Like comparing what they thought players would get to what they actually got? they have been pretty good. They normally have been +/- 2M in terms of AVV. Where they get inaccurate is on re-signings because not actually hitting the open market Edited January 10, 2020 by MAJBobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Pay that man. He brought the hustle when the team was flat numerous times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Much ado about noise, every GM/HC out there sees a year and a half of good performance, Shaq, if he’s not a knucklehead knows this, as does his agent. hope we keep him in his current role, we do not need holes to fill, more than we currently have, jmo. Go Bills!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said: I don’t expect him back as I think McBeane & he differ widely on fair market value. Add to that, some team is so desperate for D-rush, they’ll way over pay. He’s already made very good money from his 1st Round selection, though imo, has only earned it the last season & a half. But I’ve been wrong before. I just have a sneaky suspicion that he played his best till his next contract year. After all he as much as said that he played hard because it was a contract year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Free Agency is going to be super disappointing for you if you think we can get a 10+ sack guy for $12 to $14. Try closer to $20. and I am perfectly fine with that - we need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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