Is the NFL really a passing league?

[PromoTheRobot]

 

[JMF2006]

Its really simple

 

When you play from behind you have to air it out.

 

When your ahead you can be more balanced.

[row_33]

The vertical and running game have shrunk as time passes 

 

 

[prissythecat]

They were at least exciting to watch . Lots of 300 yard games

[BarleyNY]

Already a thread on this

[Putin]

Ask Baltimore the # 1 seed 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Putin

[stuvian]

because all the rules were changed to favour the pass, the defenses allowed teams to run between the 20s. As a result no one knows how to tackle anymore so run teams like the Ravens are  going to dominate

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Putin said:

Ask Baltimore the # 1 seed 

 

Baltimore clearly ran the ball more than any other team and their offense is specifically designed to utilize Lamar Jackson's running ability. However, they would not be the number one seed without Jacksons' passing. He had a career year TD percentage of 9%. (rounded up from .089).

 

To put that in perspective, in the last 20 years, there have only been 6 QB TD% performances over 8 - and only two of them were over 9 (Peyton Manning in 2004 and Aaron Rodgers in 2010). The league average is 4.6% and no passer in the modern era has a career TD Percent higher than 6%.

 

Last year, Jacksons' TD percent was 3.4% The difference between 9% and 3.4% for Jackson this year would be 22 TDs (36 TDs at 9% vs 14 TDs at 3.4%). If he had a TD% this year of the league average of 4.6%, he would have thrown for 18 TDs instead of 36. Even if he had thrown for 6% (the highest career average of any QB since 1970), he would have thrown for 24 TDS instead of 36.

 

Baltimore runs more than they pass; however, IMHO, they would not be where they are right now without the passing production. Just look at the Bills' game. They pretty much shut down the run and the pass, in terms of yards. However, Jackson had 3 TD passes on 25 attempts and 101 total passing yards.

 

It will be interesting to see if Jackson ever comes close to that TD% again.

 

Edit: Also interesting is the fact that Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, and Tyrod Taylor all had their best year, in regard to TD%, under Greg Roman.

Edited January 1, 2020 by billsfan1959

[row_33]

54 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Already a thread on this

it was a decent thread

[machine gun kelly]

17 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Baltimore clearly ran the ball more than any other team and their offense is specifically designed to utilize Lamar Jackson's running ability. However, they would not be the number one seed without Jacksons' passing. He had a career year TD percentage of 9%. (rounded up from .089).

 

To put that in perspective, in the last 20 years, there have only been 6 QB TD% performances over 8 - and only two of them were over 9 (Peyton Manning in 2004 and Aaron Rodgers in 2010). The league average is 4.6% and no passer in the modern era has a career TD Percent higher than 6%.

 

Last year, Jacksons' TD percent was 3.4% The difference between 9% and 3.4% for Jackson this year would be 22 TDs (36 TDs at 9% vs 14 TDs at 3.4%). If he had a TD% this year of the league average of 4.6%, he would have thrown for 18 TDs instead of 36. Even if he had thrown for 6% (the highest career average of any QB since 1970), he would have thrown for 24 TDS instead of 36.

 

Baltimore runs more than they pass; however, IMHO, they would not be where they are right now without the passing production. Just look at the Bills' game. They pretty much shut down the run and the pass, in terms of yards. However, Jackson had 3 TD passes on 25 attempts and 101 total passing yards.

 

It will be interesting to see if Jackson ever comes close to that TD% again.

1959, well written.  I would add if you looked at NO, SF as well as Baltimore all have a balanced attack, and all have a stout defense.

[oldmanfan]

In the regular season maybe.  In the playoffs you have to have defense and a running game.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Great analysis by billsfan1959. Lamar is an anomaly, but it seems the more balanced offenses are the best. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams and 7 of the top 10 are in the playoffs. 

So I tend to agree that this is not a passing league as 1 of the top 5 (KC) and only 3 of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs.

 

The other factor to take into account is RB's catching the ball out of the backfield. RB's like McCaffrey, Eckeler, Kamara, Cohen, Fournette and TE's Kelce, Waller, Ertz, Kittle all had more REC than our #1 John Brown. The short passing game is more like running the ball. The completion percentage is much higher. 

 

Why the Bills have not taken advantage of this with Yeldon and Singletary is beyond me. We seem to keep 90% of our passing game in the intermediate game, which is why it is so innefective. Josh Allen ranked #32 in completion percentage as he is forced to throw into tight windows where defenders know and anticipate the play. We failed miserably with the deep balls and took very few shots. We failed miserably with the screen game by not calling enough screens, RPO's and short passes. We had moderate success with the intermediate game with Brown and Beasley, but dropped balls stalled many a drive.  I really hope we see some diversity and new wrinkles in the offense this week or I pray that Cleveland is stupid enough to hire Daboll as a head coach.

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

1959, well written.  I would add if you looked at NO, SF as well as Baltimore all have a balanced attack, and all have a stout defense.

 

Right. As does Tenn, Minn, Seattle, Hou and Buff. 8 of 12 playoff teams are in the top half of the league in smallest differential between passing and rushing attempts (including 6 of the top 8).

[machine gun kelly]

1959, after we win Saturday, I’m going to toast everyone and just enjoy Henry pounding it down the Pats throat.  I hope they f%#&k are so embarrassed in such a humiliating loss.  Then one of you guys can copy and paste the Pats fan thread so we all can laugh hearing them cry.

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Just an FYI - had this thread already this week 

[Punching Bag]

Duplicate thread but yours has a better title.

 

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

Great analysis by billsfan1959. Lamar is an anomaly, but it seems the more balanced offenses are the best. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams and 7 of the top 10 are in the playoffs. 

So I tend to agree that this is not a passing league as 1 of the top 5 (KC) and only 3 of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs.

 

I think, as a general rule, the more balanced a team is, the better their chances of being a playoff team. The only exceptions I would add are those teams with HOF caliber QBs. As I stated above, of the top 14 most balanced teams, 8 made the playoffs, including 6 of the 8 most balanced teams. Of the bottom 18 teams in passing/rushing balance, only four made the playoffs: New England, Green Bay, New Orleans, and Kansas City. 

[NoSaint]

17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

In the regular season maybe.  In the playoffs you have to have defense and a running game.

yes - to beat multiple top teams consecutively you tend to have to be an all around good team, and top of the list is still being able to toss the ball

[row_33]

We will sift through the stats after the games are long over and pretend this matters even a tiny bit on the games this weekend

 

 

[colin]

It's a complicated game of rock paper scissors.

 

Rules help push things along, but defensive coordinators and the generally higher level of athletic ability on d catches up, and then new offenses come along and the cycle begins anew. 

 

Right now, D's are really good at pressure, coverage, and run blitzing.  They all seem to be poorly equiped to stop a power run game.  There is also something to be said about a very balanced d like the one we have, where if guys make tackles we can defend anything.  I think that why mcd likes waves of dline and super athlete mbls, they can deal w most anything. 

 

I'm a big fan of how these things trend and change.  I really got into it back when I played and pitz came in hot w the zone blitz concept and the 3-4 vs 4-3 stuff.

[Punching Bag]

IMO you need the horses to do a shootout when necessarily in playoffs.

[Boca BIlls]

2 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

Its really simple

 

When you play from behind you have to air it out.

 

When your ahead you can be more balanced.

This is really all you need /lock thread.

21 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

IMO you need the horses to do a shootout when necessarily in playoffs.

Actually defense prevails in playoffs.

[Punching Bag]

1 minute ago, Boca BIlls said:

Actually defense prevails in playoffs.

Like I said WHEN NECESSARY.

[Warcodered]

Individual stats can be misleading if you get a bunch of yards but don't get points with them those yards are useless.

[Mr. WEO]

Is this for real?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

1959, after we win Saturday, I’m going to toast everyone and just enjoy Henry pounding it down the Pats throat.  I hope they f%#&k are so embarrassed in such a humiliating loss.  Then one of you guys can copy and paste the Pats fan thread so we all can laugh hearing them cry.

 

...sure as hell would love a beast like that to compliment Singeltary........hell, "OBD version of "Thunder 'n Lightning" has a nice ring to it............

[Victory Formation]

It goes to show you that a 2nd or 3rd round pick on RB should not be out of the question. Singletary is going to be great but Batman needs his Robin.

[machine gun kelly]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...sure as hell would love a beast like that to compliment Singeltary........hell, "OBD version of "Thunder 'n Lightning" has a nice ring to it............

Couldn't agree more Old Time.  I’ve been banging that drum for a while in the draft.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

16 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Couldn't agree more Old Time.  I’ve been banging that drum for a while in the draft.

 

...imagine how much that facet could help Josh get to the next level?...........not being able to see college ball, who/what would be our draft options?....I'm probably dead wrong (as usual), but I think McBeane would look to the later rounds for a gem (uncanny knack at finding them) versus early on...what do you think?..........

[row_33]

Easy solution 

 

Just cargo in a great RB and a great WR as well

 

ask for a great TE as well

 

?

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Why the Bills have not taken advantage of this with Yeldon and Singletary is beyond me. We seem to keep 90% of our passing game in the intermediate game, which is why it is so innefective. 

 

 

In my dreams it's because they will be unleashed in the playoffs.

[FLbills]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

1959, after we win Saturday, I’m going to toast everyone and just enjoy Henry pounding it down the Pats throat.  I hope they f%#&k are so embarrassed in such a humiliating loss.  Then one of you guys can copy and paste the Pats fan thread so we all can laugh hearing them cry.

 

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Couldn't agree more Old Time.  I’ve been banging that drum for a while in the draft.

Ok... what's really going on here?  

??? 

Happy new year Bills Fans!!!

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

We seem to keep 90% of our passing game in the intermediate game, which is why it is so innefective. 

 

Boring?  Unnecessarily conservative at times?  Sure.

 

But when a team clinches a playoff berth after 14 games played, I don't think anything they're doing can be considered ineffective.

 

The play calls are usually not the reason the Bills are not scoring more points.  The players on the field not executing the called plays have been the reason for low points scored more often than not.

 

I've been very critical of Daboll from day one.  But looking back, I have to admit that a lot of it is not his fault.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

It's never really been a passing league in terms of total yards. That's a myth. Consensus top two teams this year and backed by seeding are the Ravens and 49ers. They are 1 and 2 overall respectively in rushing yards. 49ers are 13th in passing yards and Ravens are 27th. That's one spot lower than the Bills 26th ranked passing offense.

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

It's never really been a passing league in terms of total yards. That's a myth. Consensus top two teams this year and backed by seeding are the Ravens and 49ers. They are 1 and 2 overall respectively in rushing yards. 49ers are 13th in passing yards and Ravens are 27th. That's one spot lower than the Bills 26th ranked passing offense.

so this will cause fans to think for ten seconds and realize stats don’t really mean all that much to winning?

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, row_33 said:

so this will cause fans to think for ten seconds and realize stats don’t really mean all that much to winning?

 

 

 

10 is a little generous. maybe 8 seconds tops.

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Great analysis by billsfan1959. Lamar is an anomaly, but it seems the more balanced offenses are the best. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams and 7 of the top 10 are in the playoffs. 

So I tend to agree that this is not a passing league as 1 of the top 5 (KC) and only 3 of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs.

 

The other factor to take into account is RB's catching the ball out of the backfield. RB's like McCaffrey, Eckeler, Kamara, Cohen, Fournette and TE's Kelce, Waller, Ertz, Kittle all had more REC than our #1 John Brown. The short passing game is more like running the ball. The completion percentage is much higher. 

 

Why the Bills have not taken advantage of this with Yeldon and Singletary is beyond me. We seem to keep 90% of our passing game in the intermediate game, which is why it is so innefective. Josh Allen ranked #32 in completion percentage as he is forced to throw into tight windows where defenders know and anticipate the play. We failed miserably with the deep balls and took very few shots. We failed miserably with the screen game by not calling enough screens, RPO's and short passes. We had moderate success with the intermediate game with Brown and Beasley, but dropped balls stalled many a drive.  I really hope we see some diversity and new wrinkles in the offense this week or I pray that Cleveland is stupid enough to hire Daboll as a head coach.

Have you seen the Bills try to set up the screen or work the short passing game? For the most part execution was poor- ran correctly and it opens up so much more.

[Big Blitz]

I'm as big a believer in you have to run and stop the run and be better than everyone in the trenches as anyone.  

 

But there's a simple explanation to the 5 QBs shown in the OP and why if you wanted to use this as evidence that its not a passing league is inaccurate.  What it is, and has been for 20 years, is largely a passing league ---but.  Its not that simple.  Anyway..

 

Winston.  30 INTs.  Enough said.  And their defense (at least before they cut Hargreaves*) couldn't stop a nose bleed.  And absolutely zero running game.  

 

*The Texans were so terrible on D they signed him.

 

Dak.  Big chunk plays.  Lots of stalled drives in between getting no points.  And garbage yards.  Lots of his success was early in the season against awful defenses.  

 

Goff.  They couldn't run the ball.  And their defense was a mess.  

 

Rivers.  They couldn't run the ball either.  Their running game was throw it to Eckeler.

 

Ryan.  Ladies and gentlemen the champion of garbage yards for 2019.  When his team was down often 3 or 4 scores, no one cranked it up like this team.  Who by the way, also could not run the ball. 

 

 

Lesson.  You need to be able to have a legitimate running game.  Despite having Gordon, Freeman, and Gurley, it doesn't matter when your oline is terrible.  When its 3rd and 4, you aren't scared to run it.  You need to have a defense to keep you in games.  If they do, you don't feel the urgency to throw 45 times a game.  The league's defenses have adjusted to a lot of the passing, and as a result if you can run it, especially with 11 personnel on the field you're in great shape.  This is made easier bc teams are hitting and tackling less.  And have gotten smaller and quicker on D.  

 

Also for what it's worth, Dallas, Atlanta, and the Chargers are pathetically coached specifically on offense.  I don't get the Lynn love at all.

 

Also for what it's worth, the Rams won 9 games.  Dallas 8.  The Bucs somehow won 7.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I’ve always said it’s about balance.  
 

(throw in a 300 yard game overtone and then   )

[Kelly the Dog]

With regard to Lamar, who I agree is an anomaly and will likely never duplicate this season, it is pretty clear that his lofty passing stats were much more due to teams worrying about his running, versus lofty running stats because teams were worried about his passing. Many of his TDs were to guys left all alone.