An uncomfortable play-off situation with the Texans

[CLTbills]

Just now, Real McCoy said:

Dalton hooking us up again would be classic.

I'm sure Dalton's foundation could use some more donations!

Just now, Johnnycage46 said:

Agreed lol.  Just deserts.  Couldn't happen to a more deserving team.  Man if it's this year it would be sweet but it feels inevitable that we get the division soon.

Oh no doubt man. I just want to win it now, with Brady's future in NE uncertain. I don't want to "default" into it. 

I want to go take it from their cold, dead, cheating hands.

[stevestojan]

36 minutes ago, Stallions said:

Losing to the Steelers this Sunday puts our play-off hopes in jeopardy.  They have the Jets & Ravens remaining on their schedule.  A win over the Jets gives them 10 wins.  And, the Ravens may rest their starters for the final game of the season.

So, that basically puts our fate in the hands of the Texans & Titans.  Tennessee is hot and the Texans just lost to the lowly Bronco’s at home.  It would be great if Houston wins the division and the Titans finish 10-6 with the playoff tie-breaker in favor of the Bills. 

BUT, these teams play each other twice in the last 3 weeks of the season.  A scenario could develop with the Titans winning the division and the Texans finishing 10-6.

 

 

Would we have the tie breaker over Houston with mutual 10-6 records???

everything we needed to happen today (with the obvious exception of the Bills Winning) happened. 
 

TN, DEN, and TB won. 
 

we need one win the rest of the way and we’re in, regardless of anything else. 

[Jamie Nails]

I literally got an email from Dalton’s foundation Friday. Imagine the outpouring of money he’d get if he beat the pats. Lol. We should just sign him to be our back up. 

[Westside Madness]

I posted this elsewhere, but def fits here:

 

In various threads I am hearing both:

 

1. Win one more game and we are in the playoffs!

2. No, that's not true, it was said in error by the media!

 

Which is it? There appears to be a path where HOU, TEN, PIT and BUF end up at 10-6. My understanding is that with a 3/4 way tie, head to head is not relevant.

 

So, what factors guarantee us a playoff berth with one more win?

 

I see many posters echoing the 'win and in', but no one seems to know how/why that can happen. At least it wasn't posted in this thread.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, CLTbills said:

I'm sure Dalton's foundation could use some more donations!

Oh no doubt man. I just want to win it now, with Brady's future in NE uncertain. I don't want to "default" into it. 

I want to go take it from their cold, dead, cheating hands.

 

Someone should message him his twitter lol. I'm sure he would get extra motivation for it lol.

[Johnnycage46]

1 minute ago, Westside Madness said:

I posted this elsewhere, but def fits here:

 

In various threads I am hearing both:

 

1. Win one more game and we are in the playoffs!

2. No, that's not true, it was said in error by the media!

 

Which is it? There appears to be a path where HOU, TEN, PIT and BUF end up at 10-6. My understanding is that with a 3/4 way tie, head to head is not relevant.

 

So, what factors guarantee us a playoff berth with one more win?

 

I see many posters echoing the 'win and in', but no one seems to know how/why that can happen. At least it wasn't posted in this thread.

The pitt game is key.  Win that and in.

[CLTbills]

2 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

I posted this elsewhere, but def fits here:

 

In various threads I am hearing both:

 

1. Win one more game and we are in the playoffs!

2. No, that's not true, it was said in error by the media!

 

Which is it? There appears to be a path where HOU, TEN, PIT and BUF end up at 10-6. My understanding is that with a 3/4 way tie, head to head is not relevant.

 

So, what factors guarantee us a playoff berth with one more win?

 

I see many posters echoing the 'win and in', but no one seems to know how/why that can happen. At least it wasn't posted in this thread.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

God, could you imagine your season coming down to a freaking coin toss?

[Westside Madness]

1 minute ago, CLTbills said:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

God, could you imagine your season coming down to a freaking coin toss?

 

Thanks for this, so guessing it is the conference win/loss. I didn't math that in my 4 way 10-6 tie.

[CLTbills]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

That’d be an epic failure.

For curiosity's sake, how does that work? 

Put the two clubs on FaceTime with the league office and flip a damn coin?

[ILBillsfan]

if the Bills can not beat the STeelers lead by a third string QB Hodges then I'm not sure what to say....

 

Obviously a lot of doom and gloom posters on

[CLTbills]

Just now, Westside Madness said:

 

Thanks for this, so guessing it is the conference win/loss. I didn't math that in my 4 way 10-6 tie.

Yes. If one of the four had swept the other three, that would come first. If not, then conference win %

[Mat68]

Win out.  Win the Division.  Baltimore was the "Best Team in the NFL".  Buffalo took them to the wire in game the offense floundered in.  The Bill's offense left multiple plays on the field.  Whether it be drops, or missed throws.  I leave the game as confident as entering it.  It was a good measuring stick imo.  I think Buffalo is darn close and with a few tweaks can play with anyone.

[CLTbills]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Win out.  Win the Division.  Baltimore was the "Best Team in the NFL".  Buffalo took them to the wire in game the offense floundered in.  The Bill's offense left multiple plays on the field.  Whether it be drops, or missed throws.  I leave the game as confident as entering it.  It was a good measuring stick imo.  I think Buffalo is darn close and with a few tweaks can play with anyone.

Agreed. And even if not this year, I feel like they're better set up for the future than almost anybody, considering we still have almost $90 million in cap money going forward to grow this thing.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

47 minutes ago, Stallions said:

Losing to the Steelers this Sunday puts our play-off hopes in jeopardy.  They have the Jets & Ravens remaining on their schedule.  A win over the Jets gives them 10 wins.  And, the Ravens may rest their starters for the final game of the season.

So, that basically puts our fate in the hands of the Texans & Titans.  Tennessee is hot and the Texans just lost to the lowly Bronco’s at home.  It would be great if Houston wins the division and the Titans finish 10-6 with the playoff tie-breaker in favor of the Bills. 

BUT, these teams play each other twice in the last 3 weeks of the season.  A scenario could develop with the Titans winning the division and the Texans finishing 10-6.

 

 

Would we have the tie breaker over Houston with mutual 10-6 records???

maybe if you read the 2019 playoff thread you’d have a clue.  
 

[CLTbills]

Tirico just stated on the SNF halftime show too, one win and Buffalo is in.

[Westside Madness]

5 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

Yes. If one of the four had swept the other three, that would come first. If not, then conference win %

 

Ok, just ran the math. In the scenario where all 4 are 10-6, they will have the following conference records:

 

BUF - 7-5 (win NYJ, loss PIT, loss NE)

PIT - 8-4 (win BUF, win NYJ, loss BAL)

HOU - 8-4 (win TEN, win TB, loss TEN)

TEN - 7-5 (loss HOU, win NO, win HOU)

 

So, unless I am not seeing something, we are NOT in a 'win and in' scenario yet.

 

 

[billsherd]

I doubt divisional opponent will rest the players. 

[Locomark]

Go to http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html.  It gives all the odds. Than pick the “what if link” and it will show those odds as the weeks progress.   Basically we could lose out an still be 50/50 to make it. If we win 1 or all 3 we are still most likely to end up a 5 seed. Today was the big game because a win really allowed for more of a bye scenario. 

 

Either way would really love to see the Pats lose to Cinci just to make the head to head game be a game for the division. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Locomark

[Westside Madness]

Just now, CLTbills said:

None of that matters. the head to head ONLY matters if one team beats all of the others head to head, or if one team loses to ALL of the others head to head. That doesn't apply in this case because they didn't all even play each other. Buffalo does not play Houston. Thus, skip to the next tiebreaker, which is conference record.

 

My post has nothing to do with head to head and everything to do with the conference record...

[Stallions]

7 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

maybe if you read the 2019 playoff thread you’d have a clue.  
 

Thank you for your insight!

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

if the Bills can not beat the STeelers lead by a third string QB Hodges then I'm not sure what to say....

 

Obviously a lot of doom and gloom posters on

The Bills should do fine on that end of the matchup. The PIT D ( statistically almost as good as BAL, plus creates tons of turnovers) vs the Bills Offense is worrisome and will be the deciding factor in this game. 

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, billsherd said:

I doubt divisional opponent will rest the players. 

 

Especially if the Steelers are still alive.

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills should do fine on that end of the matchup. The PIT D ( statistically almost as good as BAL, plus creates tons of turnovers) vs the Bills Offense is worrisome and will be the deciding factor in this game. 

The Steelers imo wont score enough points to beat the Bill's.  Imo Buffalo needs to utilize more 2 tes and 2 Rbs sets.  I understand their offensive philosophy right now, some other looks for a defense imo is needed.  

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

 

My post has nothing to do with head to head and everything to do with the conference record...

In your scenario, the AFCS title would be resolved first. The Texans would win the South, and PIT would be awarded the 5 seed, BUF would be the 6 seed and TEN eliminated. So yes, win one and in for the Bills. 

[Tuco]

11 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

 

Ok, just ran the math. In the scenario where all 4 are 10-6, they will have the following conference records:

 

BUF - 7-5 (win NYJ, loss PIT, loss NE)

PIT - 8-4 (win BUF, win NYJ, loss BAL)

HOU - 8-4 (win TEN, win TB, loss TEN)

TEN - 7-5 (loss HOU, win NO, win HOU)

 

So, unless I am not seeing something, we are NOT in a 'win and in' scenario yet.

 

 

If this were to play out the first thing would be to break the tie for the division between Houston and Tennessee. I believe the only way Houston gets to 10 wins is to at least split with Tennessee, that would give Houston the division.

 

Then the other 3 teams would go to conference record, where Pitt would take the 5 seed. But then it doesn't go to the next step. Once a team is seeded the remaining tied teams revert back to the first step of the 2-team format, where we would get the 6th seed having beaten Tennessee.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Take care of our business. That’s all that’s matters. If we can’t do that we might as well get ready for next season. 

20 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

 

Ok, just ran the math. In the scenario where all 4 are 10-6, they will have the following conference records:

 

BUF - 7-5 (win NYJ, loss PIT, loss NE)

PIT - 8-4 (win BUF, win NYJ, loss BAL)

HOU - 8-4 (win TEN, win TB, loss TEN)

TEN - 7-5 (loss HOU, win NO, win HOU)

 

So, unless I am not seeing something, we are NOT in a 'win and in' scenario yet.

 

 

 I’d be surprised if the titans take the saints. 

[Westside Madness]

2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

If this were to play out the first thing would be to break the tie for the division between Houston and Tennessee. I believe the only way Houston gets to 10 wins is to at least split with Tennessee, that would give Houston the division.

 

Then the other 3 teams would go to conference record, where Pitt would take the 5 seed. But then it doesn't go to the next step. Once a team is seeded the remaining tied teams revert back to the first step of the 2-team format, where we would get the 6th seed having beaten Tennessee.

 

I saw my mistake. I was looking at 4 teams for 2 WC spots. Its 3 as one wins the division. Assuming HOU wins the division, their 8-4 conf record no longer matters in the WC assessment. PIT would still have the highest conf record at 8-4 and lock seed 5. BUF beats TEN on head to head for 6th seed.

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

In your scenario, the AFCS title would be resolved first. The Texans would win the South, and PIT would be awarded the 5 seed, BUF would be the 6 seed and TEN eliminated. So yes, win one and in for the Bills. 

 

Saw your post after I realized my error...forgot to take out the division winner.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

What about a 4 way tiebreaker at 10-6 with the bills Steelers texans and titans and our 1 win is against the jets?

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Need to just beat the Jets at home.  If they can't do that...

... then the goalposts are safe.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

What about a 4 way tiebreaker at 10-6 with the bills Steelers texans and titans and our 1 win is against the jets?

Bills are in with that scenario as was being discussed. AFCS loser is odd team out. 

[jlgarsh]

37 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

 

Ok, just ran the math. In the scenario where all 4 are 10-6, they will have the following conference records:

 

BUF - 7-5 (win NYJ, loss PIT, loss NE)

PIT - 8-4 (win BUF, win NYJ, loss BAL)

HOU - 8-4 (win TEN, win TB, loss TEN)

TEN - 7-5 (loss HOU, win NO, win HOU)

 

So, unless I am not seeing something, we are NOT in a 'win and in' scenario yet.

 

 

Houston would be division champ, , then Bills would win the tiebreaker for 2nd wildcard right?

[MrB1onde]

I don't believe there can be a "4 way tie" for the playoffs between BUF/PIT/TEN/HOU all being 10-6 because either TEN or HOU will win the AFC South, so it would be a 3 way tie for the WC at most.

 

 

[Phil The Thrill]

1 hour ago, Stallions said:

Losing to the Steelers this Sunday puts our play-off hopes in jeopardy.  They have the Jets & Ravens remaining on their schedule.  A win over the Jets gives them 10 wins.  And, the Ravens may rest their starters for the final game of the season.

So, that basically puts our fate in the hands of the Texans & Titans.  Tennessee is hot and the Texans just lost to the lowly Bronco’s at home.  It would be great if Houston wins the division and the Titans finish 10-6 with the playoff tie-breaker in favor of the Bills. 

BUT, these teams play each other twice in the last 3 weeks of the season.  A scenario could develop with the Titans winning the division and the Texans finishing 10-6.

 

 

Would we have the tie breaker over Houston with mutual 10-6 records???

This is not true.... 1 win and the Bills are in

1 hour ago, ILBillsfan said:

if the Bills can not beat the STeelers lead by a third string QB Hodges then I'm not sure what to say....

 

Obviously a lot of doom and gloom posters on

I know what I would say “If you can’t win 1 of the next 3 games, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs!”

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

This is not true.... 1 win and the Bills are in

I know what I would say “If you can’t win 1 of the next 3 games, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs!”

 

True BUT there are a lot of scenarios where a Bills 9-7 record gets them in.

Biggest being Titans split with Texans and lose to the Saints.

Edited December 9, 2019 by ColoradoBills

[Bills!Win!]

I used to be a pessimist until Andy Dalton made that throw. Now I don’t stop watching games until the very last snap. Bills could still win the division. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. It’s A long shot. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Bills!Win!

[Lurker]

58 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

  Imo Buffalo needs to utilize more 2 tes and 2 Rbs sets.  I understand their offensive philosophy right now, some other looks for a defense imo is needed.  

 

I'd like to see that as well, but don't think we have the horses for that kind of race.    Or the QB at this stage of his development.  

 

The spread formations help Josh see the field better and that's why they've empasized them over the past month.   Bringing everone in tight might not be what he's comfortable with, not to mention the limited quality of our TEs in the first place.   

 

I think they're just going to have to live with this offense and hope they can do a better job of handling the blitz (which I'm doubtful of)...

[MAJBobby]

6 hours ago, Westside Madness said:

 

Ok, just ran the math. In the scenario where all 4 are 10-6, they will have the following conference records:

 

BUF - 7-5 (win NYJ, loss PIT, loss NE)

PIT - 8-4 (win BUF, win NYJ, loss BAL)

HOU - 8-4 (win TEN, win TB, loss TEN)

TEN - 7-5 (loss HOU, win NO, win HOU)

 

So, unless I am not seeing something, we are NOT in a 'win and in' scenario yet.

 

 

we are. 
 

Houston has division 

Pitt gets in

We get in as Tenn loses the head to head with us. 
 

it isn’t hard everyone in every media outlet is saying win and we are in. 

5 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

What about a 4 way tiebreaker at 10-6 with the bills Steelers texans and titans and our 1 win is against the jets?

Have to break the division first. Meaning Houston

 

then figure out next seed that would be Pitt. 
 

we then beat Tenn with Head to Head. 
 

 

long story short. Win and you are in. 

[uticaclub]

9-7 & we miss the playoffs, we know how this ends

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

9-7 & we miss the playoffs, we know how this ends

 

Adorable.