Long Term Trust

[Pbomb]

11 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

A lot of hate for a coach that not only ended a 17 year playoff drought but is also about to go to his second playoffs in three years. Maybe it’s time to take a step back and see the big picture.

Ya, we are 6-3. Maybe some people should let the season actually play out before they crucify the coaches, qb, and other players.

 

 

 

[Westside]

47 minutes ago, JM57 said:

Being a good fan should mean being realistic about the state of the franchise, not predicting a 13-3 season every year despite obvious warts.

 

I voted 0-20% for each. I would need to see significant growth from each to have confidence in being a Super Bowl contender. Without that growth I think the ceiling of this team is similar to the Chiefs with Alex Smith. With the right mix of schedule and roster makeup, you can make the playoffs, even do so consistently. But there has to be something to push them over the top. 

 

Allen's flaws are obvious and have been gone over time and time again. Pre-draft I saw him as a prospect with a sky high ceiling and an incredibly low floor. What he has done through 20 games, in my opinion, has raised that floor. I now think the worst case scenario is average to below-average NFL starter, kind of like Andy Dalton or Alex Smith over the last decade or so. Perhaps he becomes a poor man's Stafford if the gunslinger tendencies come back. That would be his floor, it's not great but at least it's not all time bust bad. The ceiling still exists but the likelihood of him reaching it lowers with each start. Sure, Daboll isn't an elite play caller, but he's also missing open receivers and/or not seeing them at all, so there's fault on both parties.

 

McDermott needs to grow also. He is 1 for whatever on challenges and that 1 came back in 2017. Either he's going off his gut and is wrong frequently, or whoever is in the booth telling him when to challenge is immeasurably awful at it. That needs to change. You can also count on him to take a knee and jog to the locker room if they get the ball back with 75 seconds or less in the first half, even if they have all their timeouts. The two minute drill is the slowest I've ever seen. There's often no useful on the fly adjustments made if a team is beating the D or stopping the O until the half. Why can't someone upstairs assist here? At least he has shown some progress this year in going for it on 4th and short.

 

 

Maybe I'm different. Bills games aren't life and death for me anymore. I guess after over 40 years of being a fan, I might be a little jaded.

[SoTier]

23 minutes ago, Pbomb said:

Ya, we are 6-3. Maybe some people should let the season actually play out before they crucify the coaches, qb, and other players.

 

 

 

 

McDermott coaches the same way in 2019 as he did in 2017, and that's more than enough Jauron Ball Part Deux for me.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

11 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

McDermott coaches the same way in 2019 as he did in 2017, and that's more than enough Jauron Ball Part Deux for me.

Weird. I don’t remember Jauron throwing it 40 times a game and going for it on fourth down more than almost any other coach in the league. I also don’t remember Jauron making the playoffs

[Cripple Creek]

13 hours ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

How much do you trust that our current regime is on the right path to long term success?

How is this different from the 10 coins thread?

[MJS]

13 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

20%-40% for Allen because I still see growth there 

 

0-20% for McClappy because he is at his ceiling and was just out coached by Freddie “worst coach in league” Kitchens 

Freddie Kitchens stomped the Ravens.

[teef]

oh my.  oh my to all of this.

[Don Otreply]

Trust? Is this a personal relationship? How wussy can ya be? this is football buddy.

The question is better stated, do you “think” .... 

answer = 60/40 yes I trust virtually no one who works for the NFL. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Virgil]

13 hours ago, HOUSE said:

We lose one game to the Browns and the train hopped the track...how depressing

I can’t speak for everyone else, but I don’t think it’s about one game.  It’s about the past 4 games where the offensive shows no improvement and the overall track record of Daboll not making the necessary adjustments to get it done. 

For McD, I think the fear is that he doesn’t know enough about the offensive side of the ball and is too conservative to shake things up. 
 

[badassgixxer05]

13 hours ago, HOUSE said:

We lose one game to the Browns and the train hopped the track...how depressing

Yeah people on this board are funny. Its not trivial that teams will lose games. That's why only 1 team in history went undefeated. The Saints, who before last week were thought as superbowl contenders and a top 3 team,  just got spanked by the 1-7 falcons. This is a young team that is still searching to find itself. 9-7/10-6 was pretty much what everyone expected at a high end  this year from this group, but now if they finish at that mark they are considered terrible? Trust the process. They are still missing some key pieces that they will address the next year or two in draft/free agency and we will continue to see some winning football. ?

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Look up the definition of "erratic."  It's exemplified by having a back who one week is a top ten ground gainer and the next week gets eight touches against a team with a less than stellar defense.  Perhaps we simply wanted to get back to our pinpoint passing attack?  Something's clearly missing from the "trust" equation.

[Buffalo Junction]

19 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I can’t speak for everyone else, but I don’t think it’s about one game.  It’s about the past 4 games where the offensive shows no improvement and the overall track record of Daboll not making the necessary adjustments to get it done. 

For McD, I think the fear is that he doesn’t know enough about the offensive side of the ball and is too conservative to shake things up. 
 

Which is entirely reasonable. I’m not as down on the future as many in here happen to be. I honestly expected Allen to basically suck for three years anyways since he was so raw coming out. If the kid fixes one major flaw every off-season for his first 3-4 years he’s going to be a top 10-15 QB... We’ll see if he gets there. As for reading defenses... He’s still seeing new looks because the Mountain West ... well... it kind of sucks. 
 

I share the opinions of Daboll. I think he’s been throwing a bit to much at Allen with this offensive system. The offense is built to morph week to week and change... Allen doesn’t have the experience to pull that off without serious talent. As a result we have an offense that lacks identity instead of Patsie Lite. Allen simply cannot make the pre-snap reads and adjustments to control games right now. 
 

Which brings me to McD.... He needs to identify the problems and reign them in, especially Daboll getting cute with gameplan and playcalling. As HC that is his primary responsibility and he’s dropping the ball there. He also needs to figure out why this team has a 2-4 game slump in the middle of EVERY SEASON. 
 

All that said... I thought this was an 8-8 or 9-7 team that could hit 10 wins with lucky breaks before the season. They’re on track for that. They fix the run D down the stretch (again?) and someone like Knox starts seriously balling the rest of the season could be exciting. 

[chaccof]

Really, the teams record hasn't really changed much since the Music City Miracle loss.  They've averaged slightly over six wins and slightly more than 9 losses every since since.  They're 127-177 over that time period and made the playoffs once due to what can only be described as a miracle.  They've had 9 HC's, with Dick Jauron lasting the longest at slightly more than 3.5 seasons.  Basically they've been in a rebuilding cycle for the last 19 years.  My point here is what's really changed?  The names and faces, but that's about it.  So, no I don't have reason to think the current group is any better.  Sheer odds say that there has to be something like a 20% chance they get things turned around.

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, chaccof said:

Really, the teams record hasn't really changed much since the Music City Miracle loss.  They've averaged slightly over six wins and slightly more than 9 losses every since since.  They're 127-177 over that time period and made the playoffs once due to what can only be described as a miracle.  They've had 9 HC's, with Dick Jauron lasting the longest at slightly more than 3.5 seasons.  Basically they've been in a rebuilding cycle for the last 19 years.  My point here is what's really changed?  The names and faces, but that's about it.  So, no I don't have reason to think the current group is any better.  Sheer odds say that there has to be something like a 20% chance they get things turned around.

 

you any idea how hard it is to be so consistently crappy in the NFL like the Bills have?

 

not cratering completely, not seriously contender a second season in a row, but soul-crushingly mediocre so many years....

 

 

[blacklabel]

14 hours ago, OZBILLS said:

 

Imagine what a loss to Miami is going to look like

 

I get the feeling they're gonna pummel Miami into little tiny dolphin-bits. And last week I had the feeling that the Browns game was gonna be Suckfest 5000. I'm not saying I'm a prophet or anything, but.... eh, there's a punchline here somewhere but I got nothin'. With McD telling them to "play fearless" and them being pissed off about losing last week I realy think they're gonna come out on fire Sunday. 

[row_33]

Just now, blacklabel said:

 

I get the feeling they're gonna pummel Miami into little tiny dolphin-bits. And last week I had the feeling that the Browns game was gonna be Suckfest 5000. I'm not saying I'm a prophet or anything, but.... eh, there's a punchline here somewhere but I got nothin'. With McD telling them to "play fearless" and them being pissed off about losing last week I realy think they're gonna come out on fire Sunday. 

 

feelings only matter when you put at least $100 behind them

 

could any outcome honestly surprise fans of the Bills?

 

[JM57]

6 hours ago, westside2 said:

Maybe I'm different. Bills games aren't life and death for me anymore. I guess after over 40 years of being a fan, I might be a little jaded.

I'm absolutely jaded. I'm 31. The first game Ir remember going to, Todd Collins was the QB. Or in another way to phrase it, I don't remember the glory years any more than knowing they were good and my dad enjoyed watching them. My entire life has been watching the Bills with awful offenses. It's been a ride.

Edited November 14, 2019 by JM57

[blacklabel]

3 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

feelings only matter when you put at least $100 behind them

 

could any outcome honestly surprise fans of the Bills?

 

 

Not if you've been watching long enough. I think we've seen it all from them: dominant 90s run, inevitable collapses after solid starts, flat out awful seasons, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, etc. I get the feeling a lot of folks on the board here expect them to completely implode and go 1-6 to finish out the season or something. I can't see that happening. Whine as some might about McDermott, he runs a pretty solid program, I think. They're a well-coached team full of hardworking guys who put the team first and just wanna win. I know people throw 'em some flak for seeking out those types of players but with those characteristics comes a constant desire to improve. Now, that's not to say they shouldn't shy away from good players who don't 100% fit that bill. They should have confidence that the vibe in the locker room would overcome any sort of waves made by a new guy. The fact that they went after AB tells me that they won't shy away from super talented players like that, though. Culture and chemistry is extremely important to this coaching staff and they aren't going to bring in anybody that would negatively affect that. 

[row_33]

7 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Not if you've been watching long enough. I think we've seen it all from them: dominant 90s run, inevitable collapses after solid starts, flat out awful seasons, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, etc. I get the feeling a lot of folks on the board here expect them to completely implode and go 1-6 to finish out the season or something. I can't see that happening. Whine as some might about McDermott, he runs a pretty solid program, I think. They're a well-coached team full of hardworking guys who put the team first and just wanna win. I know people throw 'em some flak for seeking out those types of players but with those characteristics comes a constant desire to improve. Now, that's not to say they shouldn't shy away from good players who don't 100% fit that bill. They should have confidence that the vibe in the locker room would overcome any sort of waves made by a new guy. The fact that they went after AB tells me that they won't shy away from super talented players like that, though. Culture and chemistry is extremely important to this coaching staff and they aren't going to bring in anybody that would negatively affect that. 

 

Bills win easily

Bills squeak it out

Miami wins easily

Miami squeaks it out

 

loser puts up 2 scores in garbagetime to flip the spread cover....

 

 

[blacklabel]

59 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Bills win easily

Bills squeak it out

Miami wins easily

Miami squeaks it out

 

loser puts up 2 scores in garbagetime to flip the spread cover....

 

 

 

Ugh, the worst "Miami squeaks it out" game I can remember is from 2005 where Losman hit Evans for three 1st quarter TDs only for the mighty Gus Frerotte to lead Miami to three 4th quarter TDs and a 24-23 win. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

Uplifting thread TRBJ

[RyanC883]

17 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Id say around 15%

 

They’ve been the same team for last 3 years. I don’t see that changing all that much in the next 3.

sad, but likely true.  

2 hours ago, JM57 said:

I'm absolutely jaded. I'm 31. The first game I

remember going to, Todd Collins was the QB. Or in another way to phrase it, I don't remember the glory years any more than knowing they were good and my dad enjoyed watching them. My entire life has been watching the Bills with awful offenses. It's been a ride.

 

man, that is tough. But there is a silver lining I suppose:  I started watching the year before the SB years.  I never had any idea how bad the Bills were prior, or what was coming afterward.  After those year, I expected to make the playoffs, or find a QB.  And watching so many of the teams that were bad during our SB years (Tampa  and the Pats) or teams we routinely beat (Denver, Pittsburgh) win Super Bowls afterward made it hard to watch sometimes!  

[All I Need is Hope]

I went to the Browns/Bills game... first live game since Allen began starting.  This sucks to admit to myself, but I now firmly believe that he won't be able to become an accurate enough passer to be effective (consistently score in the mid to high 20's point range).  There's a lot that we can point to regarding their inability to score more than 14-20 pts per game, but the most basic and important reason is Josh's inaccuracy.

 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

17 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Very little.

 

Allen is among the worst QBs in the NFL.

 

Our regime doesn't bring much confidence either. Their drafting leaves a lot to be desired. 

[Nextmanup]

Look at the results of this poll.

 

Now compare the data to the overwhelming popularity of Allen on this board.

 

The most vocal and fierce Allen apologists are in a tiny minority, but they do all the screaming.

 

 I wish more Allen critics would speak up in these threads.  

[row_33]

1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

 

Ugh, the worst "Miami squeaks it out" game I can remember is from 2005 where Losman hit Evans for three 1st quarter TDs only for the mighty Gus Frerotte to lead Miami to three 4th quarter TDs and a 24-23 win. 

 

the horror..... the horror.....

 

thanks for reminder me...

 

 

[chaccof]

6 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

you any idea how hard it is to be so consistently crappy in the NFL like the Bills have?

 

not cratering completely, not seriously contender a second season in a row, but soul-crushingly mediocre so many years....

 

 

Yes, I do - I've seen it with my own eyes, and several times over the life of the team....late 60's, mid to late 70's, mid 80's......but we all get the picture.  If you're a native of WNY you get ingrained with it.  Win or lose, its fun to tailgate and go to the games I think (I only get to do it every few years now since I don't live in the area).  And its equally as frustrating as hell to not see progress.   We're now approaching nearly 25 years since the Bills last SB appearance and for anyone who was old enough to remember 1988 to 1993 it was what Patriots fans have experienced the last umpteen years minus the actual win of the SB.  I never felt the Bills would lose any games during that time.  I was genuinely shocked when they lost.  That feeling is long gone.  

[OZBILLS]

7 hours ago, blacklabel said:

With McD telling them to "play fearless" and them being pissed off about losing last week I realy think they're gonna come out on fire Sunday. 

 

5TD's and keeping the Dolphins to single digits. I don't ask for much and really hope we are going to play true fearless!

[Shaw66]

Oh, yeah.  It's happening.  I wrote about it in May.  

 

In 3 years Josh Allen will be one of the premier QBs in the league.  

4 hours ago, All I Need is Hope said:

I went to the Browns/Bills game... first live game since Allen began starting.  This sucks to admit to myself, but I now firmly believe that he won't be able to become an accurate enough passer to be effective (consistently score in the mid to high 20's point range).  There's a lot that we can point to regarding their inability to score more than 14-20 pts per game, but the most basic and important reason is Josh's inaccuracy.

 

 

I completely disagree.  I saw a QB who can make all the throws who is learning to play against all the defenses the league can throw at him.  Game by game he learns.  

[HomeTeam]

100% We are going to get a Superbowl out of Allen, wet just have to be patient. 

[ProcessTruster]

On 11/14/2019 at 6:58 AM, SoTier said:

 

This is what's troubling to me, too.  He's lost his capacity to play "hero ball" -- his willingness to do whatever it takes to win football games -- since the NE game. 

 

 

Dead on.   Allen shouldn't be playing "hero ball" all the time, but he's almost like a zombie out there now.  Trying to be a game manager isn't his forte -- and the lack of elite talent around him on the offense makes it impossible for him to be successful.   Game managers are only successful when they have great talent supporting them.

 

Defenses now have enough film on him to defend him.   Put 8 in the box and eliminate the run game; make him throw it and he misfires due to inaccuracy at least 1 out of 4 times, and 1/3 are defended successfully, making him a ~50% passer .  If he runs, you can strip the ball 1 out of 3 times.  Seems defenses invite him to run now, to provide a turnover opportunity.  So basically defenses are now taking away Singletary/Gore by outnumbering the blockers (who are only above average anyways) and they are winning in the passing game bc Josh is inaccurate and generates turnovers when he runs.  Pretty simple.   Cleveland proved it.   Everyone will be doing this until Josh starts making all the routine throws and improves his ball security.   Dont' blame it on Daboll; Browns loaded the box and Daboll correctly responded by throwing it 41 times. and guys got separation.  Josh just wasn't good enough throwing it.  Hopefully his mechanics in the pocket get cleaned up in the offseason.   Not going to happen in-season.  Training camp is over.  

 

Its all a process.   We are in year 2 with Josh, who was a glorified high school QB coming out of Wyoming.   He is getting there.  He has elite physical tools.  Just doesn't throw it well enough right now.  His mechanics / feet need to be right 100% of the time and they are not.  He needs to slide every time he runs and stop trying to score when he runs.  He's playing against defensive guys now who are just as good as athletes as he is.   He will get there.  I'm guessing next year, assuming Daboll is still around; if Daboll is gone, then we start over again; he'll have the mechanics but will burn a year learning a new offense. 

 

Stay the course.  Trust the Process.

Edited November 16, 2019 by ProcessTruster

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

Defenses now have enough film on him to defend him.   Put 8 in the box and eliminate the run game; make him throw it and he misfires due to inaccuracy at least 1 out of 4 times, and 1/3 are defended successfully, making him a ~50% passer .  If he runs, you can strip the ball 1 out of 3 times.  Seems defenses almost want him to run now, his ball security is so bad.  So basically defenses are now taking away Singletary/Gore by outnumbering the blockers (who are only above average anyways) and they are winning in the passing game bc Josh is inaccurate and generates turnovers when he runs.  Pretty simple.   Cleveland proved it.   Everyone will be doing this until Josh starts making all the routine throws and improves his ball security.   Dont' blame it on Daboll; Browns loaded the box and Daboll responded by throwing it. and guys got separation.  Josh just wasn't good enough throwing it.  Hopefully his mechanics in the pocket get cleaned up in the offseason.   Not going to happen in-season.  Training camp is over.  

 

Its all a process.   We are in year 2 with Josh, who was a glorified high school QB coming out of Wyoming.   He is getting there.  He has elite physical tools.  Just doesn't throw it well enough right now.  His mechanics / feet need to be right 100% of the time and they are not.  He needs to slide every time he runs and stop trying to score when he runs.  He's playing against defensive guys now who are just as good as athletes as he is.   He will get there.  I'm guessing next year, assuming Daboll is still around; if Daboll is gone, then we start over again; he'll have the mechanics but will burn a year learning a new offense. 

 

Stay the course.  Trust the Process.

 

 

...with Singeltary getting EIGHT touches, don't WE eliminate the run game ourselves?...just askin'............

[SoTier]

14 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

Defenses now have enough film on him to defend him.   Put 8 in the box and eliminate the run game; make him throw it and he misfires due to inaccuracy at least 1 out of 4 times, and 1/3 are defended successfully, making him a ~50% passer .  If he runs, you can strip the ball 1 out of 3 times.  Seems defenses invite him to run now, to provide a turnover opportunity.  So basically defenses are now taking away Singletary/Gore by outnumbering the blockers (who are only above average anyways) and they are winning in the passing game bc Josh is inaccurate and generates turnovers when he runs.  Pretty simple.   Cleveland proved it.   Everyone will be doing this until Josh starts making all the routine throws and improves his ball security.   Dont' blame it on Daboll; Browns loaded the box and Daboll correctly responded by throwing it 41 times. and guys got separation.  Josh just wasn't good enough throwing it.  Hopefully his mechanics in the pocket get cleaned up in the offseason.   Not going to happen in-season.  Training camp is over.  

 

Its all a process.   We are in year 2 with Josh, who was a glorified high school QB coming out of Wyoming.   He is getting there.  He has elite physical tools.  Just doesn't throw it well enough right now.  His mechanics / feet need to be right 100% of the time and they are not.  He needs to slide every time he runs and stop trying to score when he runs.  He's playing against defensive guys now who are just as good as athletes as he is.   He will get there.  I'm guessing next year, assuming Daboll is still around; if Daboll is gone, then we start over again; he'll have the mechanics but will burn a year learning a new offense. 

 

Stay the course.  Trust the Process.

 

What a load of bull manure!!!   The Bills have essentially wasted the first two years of Allen's career because they haven't devoted enough resources to helping him succeed!!!  Do you understand that THEY DIDN'T EVEN BOTHER TO HIRE A COMPETENT, EXPERIENCED QB COACH FOR ALLEN IN 2018???   David Culley might be a decent assistant coach at various positions --  he was McDermott's buddy apparently -- but he had no experience as a QB coach except for 1 year in a small time college program back in the 1980s.  That, sir, was stupid, clueless, and totally indefensible.

 

McDermott and Beane gave Allen a bit more to work with in 2019, including getting around to actually hiring a competent QB coach, albeit another McDermott pal from Carolina.  They've given Allen 2 decent WRs, which is 2 more than he had as a rookie, but neither one is a #1, and the other WRs and veteran TEs are, at best STers.  Rookie Dawson Knox looks promising but young receivers take time to develop. His OL is mediocre at pass blocking but it appears to be better at run blocking.  Of course, we don't know if that's really true because the Bills don't commit to the run, even though a strong running game has been proven over and over again is a young QB's best friend, whether he's a coveted first rounder or an UDFA, and Devon Singletary has looked good when he's gotten opportunities. 

 

The Bills couild have done more for Allen but didn't.  Four quality WRs were available in trades that they didn't land for one reason or another.    Of course, passing on Josh Gordon off waivers is, at best, disappointing.  He would have cost the Bills nothing except a roster spot and some $$$.  They also cut McCoy to keep Gore and Yeldon which seriously compromised short passing game, although they run so little that I suppose that McCoy would make no great difference in the running game.

 

You can spout your "stay the course" and "trust the process" crap ad nauseum but McDermott and Beane's offense has sucked 3 years in a row now.  They've repeatedly shed good or decent offensive players and replaced them with far inferior players, and then they spent a fortune on a first round project QB but thew him out there without decent coaching and without weapons.  If you think this is how to build some kind of "sustainable" winning team, can I interest you in purchasing a well used but recently rehabbed bridge over Chautauqua Lake?

[SoCal Deek]

A major concern for the current version of the Bills moving forward is what I’m afraid will be known as the lost 2019 draft year. If you’re really going to turn a major corner, you simply can’t afford to skip an entire draft class. I know it’s early but keep an eye on this.