Barnwell - Realistic 2019 goals for the NFL's 10 worst teams

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

So much of this comes down to whether you think Allen is better than Darnold or vice versa. I like Allen, but I always liked Darnold more, and I think Darnold is going to be very good. That's not to say that Allen won't be very good! But I think most observers see a lot more in Darnold than they do in Allen, at least at this point. And that's sensible. I also continue to strongly believe that the Bills loved Darnold and would have loved to have taken him. 

 

Bottom line: the Jets have their problems, but winning and losing depends so much on QB play/talent. That's why people aren't as down on the Jets as some of us here think they should be.

Um ... there is a team in the Bills division that regularly wins it walking away, making it impossible for any other team to get in except via the wildcard.

Darnold was considered the most Pro ready last year. Coaching and a school like USC will do that for a player. Wyoming, with a Jr. College transfer? Not so much, no. 

There are those pundits who believe Darnold is already at his peak whereas Allen has much greater potential. We shall see..

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Some on this board were apoplectic when NYJ traded 3 second round picks to move up to 3.  Yet, Buffalo effectively traded from 21 to 7 to pick Allen using Cordy Glenn to move to 12 and then 2 seconds to TB for 7.  Both NYJ and Buffalo needed a lot of draft capital to make that move, yet at this point people have long forgotten the price.

 

I say this because offense is the name of the game and, as you say, QB play is a majority of that.  Which is why I don't understand all the resources Buffalo has used on their defense.  

 

The Jets understood, albeit with a HC who has a losing record, that offense is where it's at and you need a HC to be offense-first.  McD has never embraced that and we're about to see if he's willing to change his spots. 

 

 

 

^this guy

 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

My biggest issue with the allen "haters" isn't that that they think he may not be a good QB, or that he may never develop.  My issue - They actively root for him to fail... so they can be right

 

I don't. I want very desperately to be wrong. He's looked improved in the pre-season. If the touch he's shown on short passes can continue to develop and shows itself when throwing down the field, then he'll be on the right track.

[billsbackto81]

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

.  My issue - They actively root for him to fail... so they can be right

BOOM!!!!!

Hammer meet Nail.....

Spot on my good man, just don't understand the vendetta on what appears to be a genuinely good kid.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

30 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I don't. I want very desperately to be wrong. He's looked improved in the pre-season. If the touch he's shown on short passes can continue to develop and shows itself when throwing down the field, then he'll be on the right track.

Correct. Only a "blind Homer" and the "We're Doomed" guy would make the comment that we are rooting for him to fail.. When he starts hitting 60 % and above consistently  and can actually throw guys open, my opinion will change. Bottom half  of the league QB---> no Doubt 

[BullBuchanan]

9 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

Correct. Only a "blind Homer" and the "We're Doomed" guy would make the comment that we are rooting for him to fail.. When he starts hitting 60 % and above consistently  and can actually throw guys open, my opinion will change. Bottom half  of the league QB---> no Doubt 

Pretty much where I stand with him. There are many inferior talents that are far superior QBs in the league right now, but I've never been a fan of crafting QBs out of stone. Other positions, absolutely. Go get the guy that can run a  4.2 40 and jump over a moving car.
 

QBs are different and so much of the teams success rests on their shoulders.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

so accomplishing on paper should make the team relevant? come on man. use some common sense here. they couldn't give two ***** whats on paper and frankly, neither do I.

 

 

just show me the baby, JUST WIN!!

 

Well, how is it teams like Cleveland get drooled over when they haven't won anything? Or the Jets? Isn't that a double standard? 

[BillsVet]

51 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

^this guy

 

Said the poster who used to contribute.  Now reduced to repeating the same one-liner ad nauseam with zero effect.

 

 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, BillsVet said:

 

Said the poster who used to contribute.  Now reduced to repeating the same one-liner ad nauseam with zero effect.

 

 

 

 

 

Coming from an absolute broken record, I'm OK with that.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Barnwell watches football. He's a good analyst, and he backed up his argument with evidence. I'm more bullish on the Bills than him, but it is the case that the Bills offense was truly abysmal last season and that the QB had accuracy issues. Assuming everything is going to change for the better is what homers do. 

It’s amazing how personal some fans take things.  If a national media member says the Bills (who have been super successful over the last 18 years) might not make the playoffs, they obviously hate Buffalo and let’s make fun of their appearance.   Barnwell is a star nerd and that is how he makes his predictions.  

 

No no matter how many excuses we make, Allen would be a very rare exception to the rules if he becomes a successful NFL qb.  We have a very good D and have had a terrible offense under SM.  We don’t have any elite receiving talent and have old rbs.  Could we make the playoffs? Absolutely if the offense improves and D creates a few more big plays. 

 

But what do you guys think of the Lions?  It’s the same thing. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

4 hours ago, Steve O said:

"FPI chance to make the playoffs: 13.8%"

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27428212/barnwell-realistic-2019-goals-nfl-10-worst-teams

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

The Jets, who picked 3rd overall in this year's draft, are not in the bottom 10?  

 

 

I saw the article, FP, before I saw your post.

 

...

 

...

 

Couldn't agree more...what math juggling index of power ranking and moves have the Jets made that put them outside this group of 10?!!!

 

Like you said it, they are the third worst team in football, but...what...tell us, what...what Kreskin type moves did they make to not only be in the top 5 here, but not part of that 4th tier of teams just dreaming about January?!!!

 

What sane person looks at Detroit and thinks they have a better shot of making the playoffs than the Bills?

 

Who says the same thing, and more so, about Denver in the division with 2 out of the three strongest teams in the AFC?!!!

Edited August 22, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I also think people here are underrating the Jets.

 

I remain very optimistic about Darnold becoming a great QB. Hate to say it but he was looking sharp at the end of last year and that continued into this preseason. But man their defense back 7 looks pretty rough and I have zero confidence in Gase. I think Jets will go like 8-8 and split with the Bills purely because of Darnold.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I remain very optimistic about Darnold becoming a great QB. Hate to say it but he was looking sharp at the end of last year and that continued into this preseason. But man their defense back 7 looks pretty rough and I have zero confidence in Gase. I think Jets will go like 8-8 and split with the Bills purely because of Darnold.

I think the Jets are depending on their front 4, which has two top 5 picks, to carry that defense.  If we were in the same situation, I would expect the same.  

 

I’ve said it a bunch but the Bills and Jets are basically the same teams.  If one qb emerges, they mostly likely will be the better team.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

40 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Well, how is it teams like Cleveland get drooled over when they haven't won anything? Or the Jets? Isn't that a double standard? 

well, you know...the bills

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

well, you know...the bills

 

Splashy FA signings.

 

Period.

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Splashy FA signings.

 

Period.

trust me, I'm not ragging on my team. I just know what it will take to keep the leeches off...WIN

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

trust me, I'm not ragging on my team. I just know what it will take to keep the leeches off...WIN

 

Oh I believe you.

 

Probably responded to the wrong post.

 

Everyone loves the Browns because baker talks big and they signed big names.

 

 

 

[BillsfaninSB]

It’s fun to speculate but man I can’t wait for the season to start so that we have some real data to evaluate. 

[Steve O]

2 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

It’s fun to speculate but man I can’t wait for the season to start so that we have some real data to evaluate. 

Think we're all starved for the regular season to start.  Posted this expecting 30 or 40 views and maybe half a dozen responses. 

[HOUSE]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Barnwell watches football. He's a good analyst, and he backed up his argument with evidence. I'm more bullish on the Bills than him, but it is the case that the Bills offense was truly abysmal last season and that the QB had accuracy issues. Assuming everything is going to change for the better is what homers do. 

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by HOUSE

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I'd love to curse Barnwells entire lineage, but it seems a well thought out and researched opinion with hard numbers to back up his assertions.  I understand the homer crowd will lose their minds over it though

[ddaryl]

Every year thee are surprise teams. teams that just come out of nowhere unexpectedly.

 

ESPN meet the 2019 Bills

 

There was weird comments about Dawkins struggling badly that didn't make much sense. Yeah the guy had his hands full but he was the bright spot on a dysfunctional under talented rest of the line

Edited August 22, 2019 by ddaryl

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just another analytics nerd doing analytics nerd things.

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Just another analytics nerd doing analytics nerd things.

 

[stosh64]

Barnwell suffers from Allen Derangement Syndrome.

 

I look forward to Allen making

choke on his words.

[Nextmanup]

18 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I'd love to curse Barnwells entire lineage, but it seems a well thought out and researched opinion with hard numbers to back up his assertions.  I understand the homer crowd will lose their minds over it though

The homer crowd around here is basically the entire crowd around here.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, stosh64 said:

Barnwell suffers from Allen Derangement Syndrome.

 

I look forward to Allen making

choke on his words.

 

*muttering over a slide rule*

 

"nnnn let's see, divide by four, carry the two. wonder if mom's making hot pockets."

 

[muppy]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

We upgraded with a lot of above average talent, respective of their role on the team.  No "splash" signings and half the analysts think Allen is Jamarcus Russell, so here we are with these articles.

 

It shows A) It's time to put up or shut up for this team and B) Journalists are lazy.

 

We're building a team.  I'd rather have a massively upgraded roster in terms of being complete, with depth, than have thrown a bunch of money at Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley.

 

Josh Allen has all the weapons necessary to change the Josh Allen narrative amongst his haters this year. 

 

Quote

In terms of journalists being lazy..  They don't seem to care about the Roberts, Kroft, Feliciano, Nsehke, Spain, Morse, K Johnson, J Brown, Beasley signings as much as they do 2 or 3 names they recognize.

Bingo. even we Bills fans must admit the offensive line is nowhere near even settled as to whom is starting where in view of Morses' health being an issue much less battle tested and proven. So Defensively Yes this team seems stacked. Offensively while key additions to the WR ranks were added the O-line is still a major question mark. Key word is UNPROVEN.  And to expect media to give them a pass based on conjecture with what they also consider an unproven Josh Allen to boot yep that would be a stretch..this type of article shocks me zero. I'll join the "show me the baby" chorus on this one.

[Don Beebe]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

We upgraded with a lot of above average talent, respective of their role on the team.  No "splash" signings and half the analysts think Allen is Jamarcus Russell, so here we are with these articles.

 

It shows A) It's time to put up or shut up for this team and B) Journalists are lazy.

 

We're building a team.  I'd rather have a massively upgraded roster in terms of being complete, with depth, than have thrown a bunch of money at Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley.

 

Josh Allen has all the weapons necessary to change the Josh Allen narrative amongst his haters this year. 

 

In terms of journalists being lazy..  They don't seem to care about the Roberts, Kroft, Feliciano, Nsehke, Spain, Morse, K Johnson, J Brown, Beasley signings as much as they do 2 or 3 names they recognize.

 

This is what I wanted to say but you said it better than I could. I think you should take that journalists job. You did a much evaluation than he did.

[Don Beebe]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

well, you know...the bills

Yes, that's it. When we were going to Super Bowls they didn't give any credit or respect then either.

[billsbackto81]

Adam Schein

GMFB, especially Kay Adams

Chris Simms

Michael Robinson

Trent Dilfer

Mel Kiper

 

If you look hard enough there are plenty of writers and analysts that are high on Allen and the Bills. Unfortunately many homers will feel offended if everyone doesn't agree and acknowledge improvements made to the roster and possible success. Same old song and same old solution. Win! 

 

The much needed respect and acknowledgements you and I crave will follow.

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by billsbackto81

[FLFan]

57 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I'd love to curse Barnwells entire lineage, but it seems a well thought out and researched opinion with hard numbers to back up his assertions.  I understand the homer crowd will lose their minds over it though

What it seems like to me is a typical lazy analysis focused on many of the wrong factors and always taking the negative view, with a faulty premise. Consider that “10 worst teams” puts the Bills right back at 6/10.  There is no logic to that at all.  Your homer barb is insulting and just as lazy.  Most people who are seriously following this team, fans or not, and looking beyond the “well, it’s the Bills” conventional wisdom would be very surprised indeed if the Bills manage only 6 wins, barring unforeseen disastrous injuries, etc.  

 

Try not to break a leg climbing onto the bandwagon when this looks appropriately silly by mid year.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

I'm betting heavy on the Bills in Week One. This sort of press is the ideal for the Bills, who will shock the Jets right off the bat and send all of the pundits into a tailspin. It's a prime moneymaking opportunity and I'm not going to miss out.

 

No game play for LeVeon Bell and just some practice for a guy who hasn't played in a game in over a year? Missing two starting LBs? No real WR1? Offensive line issues? Gase is their HC?

 

CHA CHING. Screw ESPN. Screw Cowherd. Buckle up!

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, stosh64 said:

Barnwell suffers from Allen Derangement Syndrome.

 

I look forward to Allen making

choke on his words.

Ah yes.  The mock a person’s appearance because you don’t like what they said.   

 

I guarantee most posters here look closer to Barnwell than they do Brad Pitt.  It’s fun to be anonymous!!!

41 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Adam Schein

GMFB, especially Kay Adams

Chris Simms

Michael Robinson

Trent Dilfer

Mel Kiper

 

If you look hard enough there are plenty of writers and analysts that are high on Allen and the Bills. Unfortunately many homers will feel offended if everyone doesn't agree and acknowledge improvements made to the roster and possible success. Same old song and same old solution. Win! 

 

The much needed respect and acknowledgements you and I crave will follow.

 

I think all the people you mentioned are awesome!

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I'd love to curse Barnwells entire lineage, but it seems a well thought out and researched opinion with hard numbers to back up his assertions.  I understand the homer crowd will lose their minds over it though

 

Not including a 4-12 team in 2018 who hired a HC that was fired and firing their GM after the draft is well thought out?

 

Hah. You make me laugh.

 

Homers indeed... *sarcasm off*

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

I'm betting heavy on the Bills in Week One. This sort of press is the ideal for the Bills, who will shock the Jets right off the bat and send all of the pundits into a tailspin. It's a prime moneymaking opportunity and I'm not going to miss out.

 

No game play for LeVeon Bell and just some practice for a guy who hasn't played in a game in over a year? Missing two starting LBs? No real WR1? Offensive line issues? Gase is their HC?

 

CHA CHING. Screw ESPN. Screw Cowherd. Buckle up!

Why anyone would bet on their favorite team is beyond me.  If I bet when I was in my homer phase, I would be very broke.  

 

If anything you bet the other team the Bills are playing for an amount you be willing to pay for a Bills W.  You’re welcome. 

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Every year thee are surprise teams. teams that just come out of nowhere unexpectedly.

 

ESPN meet the 2019 Bills

 

There was weird comments about Dawkins struggling badly that didn't make much sense. Yeah the guy had his hands full but he was the bright spot on a dysfunctional under talented rest of the line

 

So true.  Here is a link to last years ESPN Power ranking with playoff %.

I'll just list a few of the doozies.

1.  Had JAX as the best team in the AFC South,  they finished dead last.

2.  They had CHI as the worse team in the NFC North (overall rank of 24, 12% chance of playoffs).  CHI won the division over the Packers and Vikings

which they had ranked the 4th & 5th best teams in the league.

3.  Colts were ranked 25th, 2 behind the Bills.

 

It's just writers guessing at a list.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23591971/2018-nfl-season-stat-record-playoffs-predictions-football-power-index-projections

Edited August 22, 2019 by ColoradoBills

[EasternOHBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why anyone would bet on their favorite team is beyond me.  If I bet when I was in my homer phase, I would be very broke.  

 

If anything you bet the other team the Bills are playing for an amount you be willing to pay for a Bills W.  You’re welcome. 

 

I don't bet on the Bills that often at all... but when I do, I rarely lose. The line will be extremely favorable, but I'm betting straight up on the moneyline for added value. That's where the money is and I'm playing it. I never mix my Bills fan status with betting and fantasy football unless there is a prime opportunity to take advantage. Don't believe? OK then, that's you!

[The Bills Blog]

I laughed out loud when I saw the thread title, because I knew that we were included in the "10 worst teams." Laughable.

[stosh64]

So glad to see the "Woke", non homers agree with Barnwell.  SMFH

 

Time will tell.

 

#BillsMafia  #GoBills

 

My $$$ is on Josh