The Draft Network: Josh Allen Review

[HappyDays]

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/rookie-qb-review--josh-allen

 

A few snippets:

 

Quote

Bad news first: He wasn't very good. But that's okay! I can't emphasize this enough, Bills Mafia: rookie quarterbacks are supposed to be bad. Struggle is to be expected in Year 1. Allen finished the season with a 10:12 TD:INT ratio, just over 6 yards/attempt, an 8.0 sack rate, and 52.8% completion percentage. All of that is really not very good -- but he also had great numbers as a runner and improved statistically later in the season, so there's reason to be excited.

And there's the good news: He was better than I expected, given his product at Wyoming. Allen showed more nuanced placement on downfield throws than I think he did with the Cowboys, which is a huge boon given how the offense is structured around him. He created a ton with his legs, which was not featured as heavily in Wyoming and could even get more offensive intention in Year 2.
 

 

Quote

This is the first complaint with Allen, and it always has been. His issues with inaccuracy are well-documented, and we'll touch on them later, but the biggest issue with Allen has always been his processing speed and risk management. A cool-headed quarterback, even with minimal NFL experience, should feel that he has space and time to adjust his set point, align his feet, and throw this ball downfield. Allen bails, tucks, and limits his offense with this run.

 

Quote

By the end of the season, the offense simply did not rely on short throws at all, and that's because Allen's most egregious inaccuracy issues flare up in the quick game, when he doesn't build a throwing base and attempts to drive footballs into wide-open windows exclusively with arm strength.

 

Quote

Now, inaccuracy doesn't just vanish. Players don't just become more accurate -- at least, not with such a significant jump that we should expect Allen to, at any point in his career, become a suddenly accurate quarterback. He's good at hitting downfield throws when he can see it and sling it, though he still struggles with backshoulder placement; he can hit some intermediate crossers and then inexplicably miss the next one. The name of the game isn't making Allen more accurate -- it's modeling the offense around the throws that he

 can hit accurately, and hoping that passing game will be sustainable.

Allen's footwork can get better. But he'll probably continue to miss easy, short throws for the rest of his career.

 

Quote

I think the Bills should again prove a feisty team this year, and while I don't expect a record above .500, I think 6-10 and 7-9 are within range, and they have the chances to take some good teams down to the wire.

 

We circle back to the question: can you build a functional offense around Allen in the NFL? I think yes, if you use him intentionally as a dual-threat player, don't mess around with a short game, and have enough wide receiver talent to basically play Madden on an NFL field.

 

 

Quote

There's a better chance that Allen becomes a tenable NFL starter now than there was this time last year -- he landed in a good spot and showed growth in Year 1. But we're still far out from the mark, and development isn't linear. I have hope, but only a flicker.

Edited June 8, 2019 by HappyDays

[TYSONKO1]

I am so relieved the guy sees a flicker of hope Josh will improve. The chances of Josh having a 69% completion percentage is far greater than the chances of this writer having an original thought.

[twist_to_open]

As much as I'm glad this writer is spending his time constructively as opposed to hanging out on a street corner, I think I'll just wait and see how the season actually plays out.

[Protocal69]

He lost me when he says Allen struggles with back shoulder placement. I think I only saw one throw that he missed throwing back shoulder. 

[YoloinOhio]

7 weeks til camp. We’re not gonna make it.

[The Bills Blog]

This guy has always taken issue with Josh. He's one of those guys who will try at all costs to convince everyone that Josh isn't good. It will continue... As soon as I see "The Draft Network," I know it'll be this garbage.

Edited June 8, 2019 by The Bills Blog

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

He lost me when he says Allen struggles with back shoulder placement. I think I only saw one throw that he missed throwing back shoulder. 

 

Agreed, I'm not sure where he came up with that. He struggled with short throws, but I thought the back shoulder was one of his best throws.

4 minutes ago, The Bills Blog said:

This guy has always taken issue with Josh. He's one of those guys who will try at all costs to convince everyone that Josh isn't good. It will continue... As soon as I see "The Draft Network," I know it'll be this garbage.

 

A good litmus test for his credibility will be his article on Lamar Jackson. If I remember correctly he thought Jackson was worthy of the #1 overall pick. I'm curious to see what he thinks of him now.

[Stank_Nasty]

So he’s supposed to be improved. We improved the team around him..... and this guy thinks 6 or 7 wins is “within range”. LOL thanks for the kind words bro! 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

20 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

7 weeks til camp. We’re not gonna make it.

...buy high....sell low..........

[transplantbillsfan]

Interesting read. Thanks for posting.

 

I disagree with a lot of it, though.

 

First and foremost, I loathe the concept of tailoring our offense to the "duel-threat QB" concept.

 

I hope Daboll is smart and cuts out designed runs altogether and just tells Allen when he's in the pocket (or out) he's free to run if he sees a lane and/or pressure is overwhelming and/or no one is open.

 

Allen was largely ineffective on designed runs last year, but exceptional when scrambling. Cam Newton's career is getting cut shorter and shorter by the year as his offense still maintains his designed running as a major part of its arsenal.

9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

So he’s supposed to be improved. We improved the team around him..... and this guy thinks 6 or 7 wins is “within range”. LOL thanks for the kind words bro! 

 

Seriously. So stupid. As a starter in his rookie year Allen was 5-6. 6-10 or 7-9 would be a step backwards.

 

What a moron.

[gjv001]

Take a look at the author, does he give you confidence that he knows anything about the development of an NFL QB?

[whatdrought]

Honestly, the best thing and the worst thing about TDN is the same thing:

 

They have a ton of content.

 

This is great at draft time for a draft slut like me, but it comes with the reality that the majority of sites with a ton of content aren’t usually the most knowledgeable. I like some of their stuff, but hating Josh Allen and loving Josh Rosen seems to be the “in vogue” idea, and they crave looking important. 

[mykidsdad]

Blah, blah, blah. This guy is one of many copying and pasting the same article again and again.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

I honestly don’t care what is written about him anymore. People who hated coming out of college will nit pick him the rest of his career. People who loved him will overlook his short comings. All I know is this guy can be like Mike Vick (that’s my ceiling for him). That’s good enough to win a championship and that’s the ultimate goal. The one thing is did agree with is let the kid run. Cunningham, Vick, McNair the qbs that they were.

[Captain Murica]

Feisty team... I wanted to defend the draft network but ***** yikes man. 6-10/7-9, then McDermott & Beane will be on the hot seat and the rebuild was for nothing. 

 

For FFS I cannot wait for TC & the preseason to come. 

[LSHMEAB]

He was correct that Allen's biggest issue is not properly setting his feet on the gimmies. This is precisely why Palmer and Daboll are making it the focal point of his offseason to do list.

 

If he can master that, he's a superstar. If he can't, he'll just be a decent QB who flashes.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Agreed, I'm not sure where he came up with that. He struggled with short throws, but I thought the back shoulder was one of his best throws.

 

A good litmus test for his credibility will be his article on Lamar Jackson. If I remember correctly he thought Jackson was worthy of the #1 overall pick. I'm curious to see what he thinks of him now.

 

Thought the same thing about ball placement on deep sideline and comeback routes...especially when he and Foster started to mesh timing-wise.

 

I also did not agree with the short yardage analysis when it came to steps taken in the 2nd half of last year.

 

Sure the timing and footwork suffered with the pocket collapsing around him, but overall I felt the game was slowing down for Allen and Daboll had him spreading the ball around more towards year end with more success, better timing and touch on his 3-step quick throws.

 

Not a total homer and realize there are passes that get away from Allen, but as long as he is trending in the right direction...that is what we should be looking for.

 

Not sure if these guys really break down game film, or just read a few articles and make up commentary.

 

 

 

 

"You are either growing or you're dying, there ain't no 3rd direction" - Tommy Boy

 

 

Edited June 8, 2019 by WideNine

[Stank_Nasty]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Interesting read. Thanks for posting.

 

I disagree with a lot of it, though.

 

First and foremost, I loathe the concept of tailoring our offense to the "duel-threat QB" concept.

 

I hope Daboll is smart and cuts out designed runs altogether and just tells Allen when he's in the pocket (or out) he's free to run if he sees a lane and/or pressure is overwhelming and/or no one is open.

 

Allen was largely ineffective on designed runs last year, but exceptional when scrambling. Cam Newton's career is getting cut shorter and shorter by the year as his offense still maintains his designed running as a major part of its arsenal.

 

Seriously. So stupid. As a starter in his rookie year Allen was 5-6. 6-10 or 7-9 would be a step backwards.

 

What a moron.

Basically at the end this dude still only admits he thinks there’s slim to no chance he succeeds while saying the team will have the same record earlier on....

 

thats just a really loonnnggg drawn out way to say he still thinks he sucks and nothing much will change with their record but he wants to cover his ass if Allen happens to make him look like an idiot. 

 

Solid. 

Edited June 8, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[JerseyBills]

He's played in about 11 games in his career and this guy really said he's going to struggle with short throws his whole career. Smh. 

That's either complete incompetence or a hater

Edited June 8, 2019 by JerseyBills

[billspro]

4 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

He lost me when he says Allen struggles with back shoulder placement. I think I only saw one throw that he missed throwing back shoulder. 

 

He was out to lunch there. Allen throws a great back shoulder ball.

[NewEra]

I love Josh Allen

[Lurker]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

A few snippets:

 

The key thing I want to see from Allen is him slowing down and feeling comfortable in the pocket.   

 

Too many times he took off running or forced a throw out of haste--usually warranted due to the poor OL play--which was a problem he had at Wyoming as well.   That was a big difference between his development and the other first round QBs who often came from much better programs and had better OL and WRs to make the QB more effective/better.

 

Improved OL play and another year of experience will hopefully address his accuracy problem...

[LSHMEAB]

43 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

He was out to lunch there. Allen throws a great back shoulder ball.

As has been pointed out, that was an absurd statement. He's got an excellent go route deep ball. Fortunately, we won't have to watch Zay running step for step with the receiver he's covering on fly patters in 2019.

 

Deep accuracy is not an issue.

[Rocket94]

These analyst's need to give Allen a break...be a little more objective. He walked in to a mess, didn't play a whole season and did remarkably well considering where he came from. He now has an improved supporting cast as well as good coaches in Palmer and Dorsey.

Edited June 9, 2019 by Rocket94

[TigerJ]

I don't know that it's intentional but I think a lot of subsequent analyses made by persons of all kinds of prospects tend to look like defenses of their initial analysis rather than a purely objective look based on what is actually happening to the young player.

[White Linen]

8 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

He lost me when he says Allen struggles with back shoulder placement. I think I only saw one throw that he missed throwing back shoulder. 

 

And the writer missed that one.

[Ronin]

It's obviously not the popular take, but that piece explains perfectly exactly why we ranked 31st in Yards-After-the-Catch.  

 

Those YAC come from the short high-percentage throws.  

 

For anyone to dismiss that is to set Allen up for failure.  

[Gugny]

I am so ***** MAD!

[Jasovon]

So many talking heads have us as significantly improved and then winning 6 games. It's like they didn't watch us at all last year.

[JaCrispy]

18 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

He lost me when he says Allen struggles with back shoulder placement. I think I only saw one throw that he missed throwing back shoulder. 

Yup...I thought the back shoulder toss was actually Allen’s bread and butter

[gobills1212]

20 hours ago, gjv001 said:

Take a look at the author, does he give you confidence that he knows anything about the development of an NFL QB?

I thought the same thing. Put some red hair on the kid and he looks like ron howard from his Mayberry days. Then to see hes deputy editor of bleeding green nation as well and i immediately went to ' why did i soend 5 min reading this?!'. Not bc he didnt have kind things to say - we have to have thick skin with allen as our qb, at least for now. It was more the aforementioned issues in this thread that ruined it and that was the icing on the cake

[Figster]

18 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I don't know that it's intentional but I think a lot of subsequent analyses made by persons of all kinds of prospects tend to look like defenses of their initial analysis rather than a purely objective look based on what is actually happening to the young player.

Its also not like Allen did anything statistical in the passing game to help matters.

 

Nobody knows Josh Allen better then we the fans, his coaches and teamates. 

 

Flying under the radar is fine by me...

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, Figster said:

Its also not like Allen did anything statistical in the passing game to help matters.

 

Nobody knows Josh Allen better then we the fans, his coaches and teamates. 

 

Flying under the radar is fine by me...

 

 

...FAR more beneficial IMO to follow the critical analyses of former NFL QB's still well connected to the game (could care less about their career stats) whether good, bad or indifferent.......Palmer, Simms, Dilfer, etc all provide pros, cons, and eventual opinions after weighing both as far as a QB prospect....what background does a urinalist have that is objective and unfettered from the safety of his under desk?....

[Albany,n.y.]

Here's part of his bio: Deputy Editor of Bleeding Green Nation.

Bleeding Green Nation is a Philadelphia Eagles site.  He's just worried that Allen will surpass Wentz.  

 

[Victory Formation]

What Allen needs is confidence. I think the writer hit on a few good points, Allen needs a passing game rich in throws he can easily hit, as does every QB, even Tom Brady. You build the offense around Allen, just as you would any QB. Then you sprinkle in new concepts he can master as he develops. 

[WideNine]

23 hours ago, HappyDays said:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/rookie-qb-review--josh-allen

 

A few snippets:

 

 

"By the end of the season, the offense simply did not rely on short throws at all, and that's because Allen's most egregious inaccuracy issues flare up in the quick game, when he doesn't build a throwing base and attempts to drive footballs into wide-open windows exclusively with arm strength."

 

 

 

 

I admit, I am bored waiting for training camp, the preseason, and opening kickoff to get here so going waaay out of my way to address this guy's lack of depth on his evaluations particularly his summary comment about the types of plays called towards season's end.

 

If you look at the last game against Miami objectively you will see a good sample of everything good and everything bad about Josh's game and the team around him, but saying the Bills did away with short throws is just lazy. I have no idea where he gets "the offense did not rely on short throws at all". What you see is the direct opposite and the focus of plays trending in that direction under Daboll to grow Allen's game:

 

 

Summary:

 

Allen needs to work on his accuracy - particularly when he sets and throws. He tends to set his base in poor position relying solely on his arm to lead receivers which leads to overthrows and under throws, whereas he has pretty good to very good accuracy when throwing off platform on the move. 

 

I believe Josh will have more time this year, and that may have the opposite effect than what we all expect in regards to his accuracy early on. I say this now as a cautionary thing for us fans, as I think having time to throw from a clean pocket will force Allen to have to correct his issues building a proper throwing base and many of the passes where he is inaccurate seem to be when he has the time in the pocket and is not on the move.

 

Allen's throws at the beginning of games or half time tend to sail on him. Daboll may want to consider calling more runs in those situations to allow Allen to get into a rhythm and tamp down the competitive adrenaline. He also needs to understand game situations better - there is no need to force the ball into double coverage when you are deep in your own zone , facing a 2nd and long situation, and there is only 40+ seconds left in the half - led to a Miami pick 6.

 

Allen has some ridiculously long runs - the 30 and 40 yard variety that just boggle the mind, but we know that QB's that rely mostly on running the ball cannot sustain that productivity year after year so they have to become better pocket passers or they fail. This is a huge maturation year for Allen in regards to becoming a better pocket passer. I do not propose removing the valid threat that Allen's scrambling creates, but rather reeling them back a bit by teaching him to head for the sidelines and to slide more.

 

At this point in his development you just have to ask yourself, can Allen work to close the gap and become a more consistent passer?  One either believes that or they don't, but he has never had the luxury of having a good offensive line so he has to build up some better habits when throwing from the pocket. He has rarely had the luxury to develop that aspect of his game - IMO at this stage patience is needed as no one really knows what Allen's ceiling actually is when it comes to learning to throw from a clean pocket - we will all find out over time.

 

Either way, Daboll mostly called short to intermediate routes throughout the game, but when Miami subbed a bunch of guys in the secondary it just made sense to leverage a few deep throws near the end to seal the win. The author does touch upon the truth about Allen's struggles building a proper throwing base, but there is nothing at all in the game film that suggest the author was right in his assessment about the Bills and Daboll having thrown up their hands and given up on shorter routes - that was pure conjecture and shoddy journalism.

 

Perhaps we should thank the talking heads for being so terrible they give us something to talk about during the dead times between seasons.

 

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

12 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

 

Summary:

 

Allen needs to work on his accuracy - particularly when he sets and throws. He tends to set his base in poor position relying solely on his arm to lead receivers which leads to overthrows and under throws, whereas he has pretty good to very good accuracy when throwing off platform on the move. 

 

I believe Josh will have more time this year, and that may have the opposite effect than what we all expect in regards to his accuracy early on. I say this now as a cautionary thing for us fans, as I think having time to throw from a clean pocket will force Allen to have to correct his issues building a proper throwing base and many of the passes where he is inaccurate seem to be when he has the time in the pocket and is not on the move.

 

Allen's throws at the beginning of games or half time tend to sail on him. Daboll may want to consider calling more runs in those situations to allow Allen to get into a rhythm and tamp down the competitive adrenaline.

 

 

 

I agree with the premise, but not the remedy. I think Josh's issues have more to do with overthinking and less to do with adrenaline. Clean pockets last season seemed to catch him off guard, so hopefully that won't be an issue in 2019. What I would suggest is more no huddle, a quicker pace, etc. The problem starting halves could very well be the result of adrenaline not yet flowing. I'd honestly go 2 minute O to start the half quite a bit. Read, react, but don't think. 

[WideNine]

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I agree with the premise, but not the remedy. I think Josh's issues have more to do with overthinking and less to do with adrenaline. Clean pockets last season seemed to catch him off guard, so hopefully that won't be an issue in 2019. What I would suggest is more no huddle, a quicker pace, etc. The problem starting halves could very well be the result of adrenaline not yet flowing. I'd honestly go 2 minute O to start the half quite a bit. Read, react, but don't think. 

 

Fair enough and I agree he is probably over thinking things at this point and a faster tempo could be a good way to counter that.

 

I don't know if I have ever seen a QB whose every throw has come under as much scrutiny as Allen - he has that lightening rod effect of polarizing opinions. He is going to have to figure out the balance between accepting there are things he genuinely needs to work on without losing sight that there are some pretty amazing aspects to his game.

Also glad to see OBD trying to develop some consistency in the QB room and not trying to dissuade Allen for continuing to work with Jordan Palmer. Too many voices trying to help Allen correct his mechanics would likely just lead to even more of the over thinking you mention.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I agree with the premise, but not the remedy. I think Josh's issues have more to do with overthinking and less to do with adrenaline. Clean pockets last season seemed to catch him off guard, so hopefully that won't be an issue in 2019. What I would suggest is more no huddle, a quicker pace, etc. The problem starting halves could very well be the result of adrenaline not yet flowing. I'd honestly go 2 minute O to start the half quite a bit. Read, react, but don't think. 

 

Also wondering why Daboll does not have Josh changing up the cadence a bit more.

 

Watch that clip and count how many times it is "READY... hut, hut". It does not help your o-line when pass rushers can easily jump the snap and tee-off on your QB because the cadence rarely ever changes.

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

Also wondering why Daboll does not have Josh changing up the cadence a bit more.

 

Watch that clip and count how many times it is "READY... hut, hut". It does not help your o-line when pass rushers can easily jump the snap and tee-off on your QB because the cadence rarely ever changes.

 

 

I didn't notice that, but it could be that BD was trying to keep it simple for a rookie QB. Definitely need to mix up the cadence going forward if that was indeed the case.