How can we not be all in on Metcalf now?

[jimmy10]

On 3/3/2019 at 12:13 PM, ytownblofan said:

Not a chance. Jam him at the line with safety help over the top and he becomes a non-factor. A wr that can’t change direction and has a limited route tree becomes easy to defend, freak or not. 

 

Exactly. He's a pitcher with a 105 mph fastball and not much else.

 

They'll find chunks of him in pro DBs' stool. 

[NewEraBills]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

For me, the best usage of a top-10 pick is on a franchise QB.  Obviously, that's not where Buffalo is going this year, and that's fine. The next best usage IMO is on a game-changing offensive playmaker, pass rusher, or corner. When I try to evaluate who has the best chance of being a game-changer in the NFL, I'm looking to optimize between a track-record of playing the position at a high level in college and the eye-popping measurables (and, of course, you want the intangibles as well).

 

So, when I look at the top-10 talent non-QBs in this class (listed, in no particular order, below), who checks the boxes?

Nick Bosa

Quinnen Williams

Josh Allen

DK Metcalf

Josh Jacobs

Ed Oliver

Christian Wilkins

Jawaan Taylor

Rashan Gary

Devin White

Jeffrey Simmons

TJ Hockenson

 

For me, the guys I think qualify as having both a track-record of playing the position at a high level in college and the eye-popping measurables, and can fill one of the critical roles of offensive playmaker, pass-rusher, or corner, are: Bosa, Williams, Allen, Jacobs, Oliver, Wilkins, and Simmons. I'm leery of guys that do incredibly stupid things off the field, so Simmons probably falls off my board. I'm also not huge on first-round RBs given the shelf-life, so Jacobs wouldn't be my guy either.

 

That leaves Bosa, Williams, Allen, Oliver, and Wilkins for me.  I thin there's probably an 80% chance that one of them is there at 9, so that's where I'd go at this point.

 

 

Now if Josh Allen is on the board and DK is also on the board, that's when I would have a difficult decision.  He's the only potentially available defender I'd do that for.  To me, what the Bills need on defense is an edge rusher opposite of Hughes.  I'm not sure I'd take an interior DL over Metcalf looking at the Bills.  If I'm another team I probably would.  But the Bills, the only guy I'd take over Metcalf at 9 is Allen.  This current NFL is two things to me.  Score points and get to the QB.  Great defense IMO has been redefined.  You have to be efficient against the run, but you don't have to be smothering.  But beyond a shadow of a doubt it is a necessity that you get to the QB.  So for me, I'd be happy with Allen or Metcalf at 9; Maybe even Sweat.  I think the other areas can be supplemented in other ways.

Edited March 4, 2019 by NewEraBills

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

Now if Josh Allen is on the board and DK is also on the board, that's when I would have a difficult decision.  He's the only defender I'd do that for.  To me, what the Bills need on defense is an edge rusher opposite of Hughes.  I'm not sure I'd take an interior DL over Metcalf looking at the Bills.  If I'm another team I probably would.  But the Bills, the only guy I'd take over Metcalf at 9 is Allen.  This current NFL is two things to me.  Score points and get to the QB.  Great defense IMO has been redefined.  You have to be efficient against the run, but you don't have to be smothering.  But beyond a shadow of a doubt it is a necessity that you get to the QB.  So for me, I'd be happy with Allen or Metcalf at 9; Maybe even Sweat.  I think the other areas can be supplemented in other ways.

 

I absolutely agree with the bold, which is why I have guys like Oliver, Williams, and Wilkins listed.  The impact of interior pass rushers like Aaron Donald and Chris Jones is as much of a factor in disrupting QBs as the EDGE guys.

[Reed83HOF]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I absolutely agree with the bold, which is why I have guys like Oliver, Williams, and Wilkins listed.  The impact of interior pass rushers like Aaron Donald and Chris Jones is as much of a factor in disrupting QBs as the EDGE guys.

 

The more pressure you can generate without blitzing, the better. What also helps is that Brady does not like pressure up the middle 

[NewEraBills]

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I absolutely agree with the bold, which is why I have guys like Oliver, Williams, and Wilkins listed.  The impact of interior pass rushers like Aaron Donald and Chris Jones is as much of a factor in disrupting QBs as the EDGE guys.

 

I can agree with that.

5 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

The more pressure you can generate without blitzing, the better. What also helps is that Brady does not like pressure up the middle 

 

No QB does.  

 

Your Edge guys tend to put up more sack numbers and pressures though.  That's why I think Edge is a priority over interior.  But ultimately, you get it where you can get it.

Edited March 4, 2019 by NewEraBills

[Spiderweb]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Dude reminds me of David Boston...does he want to become a bodybuilder or a football player?  Eventually he is going to lift himself into constant injuries on the footbal field and shorten his career.

Flexibility is extremely important to top receivers. Without it, he's just a physical freak.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 3/3/2019 at 9:09 AM, Dr. Who said:

Below Average
3-cone: 7.38
Short Shuttle: 4.50

 

DL appears to have outstanding talent likely to be available at nine. Metcalf should be considered, but it's far from a no-brainer. Pretty deep WR class, so second round should have some good players that fit what we are trying to do.

Straight line speed and freakish strength only go so far. Case in point David Boston. I want a guy with fast twitch muscles and the ability to cut and get open. Foster can be our fly guy. Metcalf is tempting but his 3 cone was poor. Isabella in the 2nd round? What are DK's hands like? What's his drop ratio?

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

 

I don't think it's smart use of the 9th overall pick.. Reminds me of 2014 trading up for Watkins which was a huge mistake.  We could of stayed at our pick and got OBJ in the first round.  Or waited later in the draft to get wayyy better value picks in Cooks, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, etc.  This WR draft may look like that year.

 

I agree. With the rare 1st round exception,  good to very good wrs can be had in rounds 2-4. Every 1st round pick for the next few years has to be a home run starter.

[3rdand12]

On 3/3/2019 at 5:28 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

I’d rather see them bolster the OL.

 

At this point, it looks almost certain that BPA at their pick will be a DL, likely by a wide margin.  So, I expect a DL in the 1st.  After that, I’d love to see an OL player like Risner or Bradbury or McCoy or...

 

Unless they sign two starting caliber OL in FA, I cannot see how they could take a WR or TE in the first 3 rounds.  Now, if they trade down in round 1 and pick up an extra 2nd, then maybe they could grab a pass catcher in the first 3 rounds.

I  can see them taking one of each in the 2-4.

no for pass catcher at 9 this season please.

 

you are correct about BPA and D Line  at nine. fingers crossed for Beanes witchery to correct the O line and TE mostly in FA. and the options open up for the draft a bit more ?

[SydneyBillsFan]

DK Metcalf - the NFL wideout equivalent of a cut-price Ferrari that only does left turns.

 

No thanks.

[MAJBobby]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

Obviously, the team doesn’t have the view that only Dante Scarnecchia can develop an OL.  

 

That would be giving up on the OL and obviously that’s not going to happen.  You act as if no good teams draft OL in the first 2 rds.  

 

 

Ok so tell me how many team recently draft OL in the 1st round get to the SB?

[BillsFan130]

15 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Ok so tell me how many team recently draft OL in the 1st round get to the SB?

Nate Solder, New England. 2 SB wins for him . (Playing devils advocate here)

[MAJBobby]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

Nate Solder, New England. 2 SB wins for him . (Playing devils advocate here)

 

And they let him walk for a 5th round player. Point is sorry if people think OL in the early rounds is a sure thing. It isn’t with the way colleges are today. 

 

It it used to be, but changed and the only ones that don’t see it are stuck in old school football. 

[BuffAlone]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And they let him walk for a 5th round player. Point is sorry if people think OL in the early rounds is a sure thing. It isn’t with the way colleges are today. 

 

It it used to be, but changed and the only ones that don’t see it are stuck in old school football. 

And how many 1st rd receivers get to the SB?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

7 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

To me you draft him and ask him to do the following:

 

1)  Screens

2)  9/Go routes

3) Deep Post routes

4)  Slants

5)  Deep Crossers

 

You don't ask him to run double move routes that's all.  I'd say he's a Demaryius Thomas archetype with more speed and explosiveness.  To me he fits in great with Josh Allen's abilities.  Now that I think about it I would probably actually try to also get a guy like Andy Isabella if he's still there in the 3rd and have him man the slot.  He can run all of the quicks and double moves.  That would me bye to Zay unless he can show he has the agility and speed to get open on the short routes.

 

Why would you want someone at #9 with aimited route tree? 

[BillsFan130]

10 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And they let him walk for a 5th round player. Point is sorry if people think OL in the early rounds is a sure thing. It isn’t with the way colleges are today. 

 

It it used to be, but changed and the only ones that don’t see it are stuck in old school football. 

Fair points, was just answering your question.

 

Colts haven’t been to a SB recently but that Nelson pick is looking pretty great for them so far.

 

But ya picking a OL high is definitely not a sure thing. The draft at the end of the day is a crapshoot for the most part.

Edited March 5, 2019 by BillsFan130

[EmotionallyUnstable]

8 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

The potential combination of Allen to Metcalf should make any Bills fan smile.  Metcalf helps Allen tremendously.  That's where I'm at.

 

After free agency, we'll get more of a sense of what Beane may do in the draft.

 

How does he help Allen any more than someone who could be taken in the second round? What skills does he have, or has shown, that would offer Allen consistency improvement?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Fair points, was just answering your question.

 

Colts haven’t been to a SB recently but that Nelson pick is looking pretty great for them so far.

 

But ya picking a OL high is definitely not a sure thing. The draft at the end of the day is a crapshoot for the most part.

 

I agree with this. General thought, not necessarily directed at you:  From the Bills current situation, can they afford to miss in the first round at WR or OL? 

 

To me, I don't think the risk is worth the reward at WR, especially with a player like Metcalf. Allen needs consistent, reliable play makers. They can't afford to wait around for your first round pick to develop into the WR you hoped he would become. 

 

I'd rather see them get someone with a high floor at WR, whether they draft one or get someone from free agency. Take 9 and improve the trenches with a plug and play that can immediately help your team abd offers little risk of impedeing Allen's development 

[Mat68]

5 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

We just had an oft-injured WR in Watkins.  9 has to be a sure thing.  This is a deep class for WR and I think we can get really good talent in rounds 2-4.  

 

3 red flags right off the bat:

 

-Not a lot of production on college

-A lot of games missed due to injury

-Poor agility in tests

His agility numbers are very similar to Randy Moss and Metcalf has much better explosive numbers, vertical and broad jump.  Tall guys dont excel in the shuttle or 3 cone that's why many including Calvin Johnson decline them.  People blasting Metcalf and tout Harry when he ran much slower and didn't test his agility to protect his draft status is funny.  As an outside Metcalf has prototypical size.  His 40 shows when you watch him.  He has another gear on deep passes.  He routinely has seperation on his intermediate and beyond routes.  I want to enhance Allen's biggest gift.  His arm. Give him a rare deep threat talent.  That opens things up for all the other aspects of the passing game. 

[MAJBobby]

17 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

And how many 1st rd receivers get to the SB?

 

Off top of my head well there is Jones, Jeffery to name two quick ones. 

 

I am not opposed to OL to help Allen. But to think a first round OL is a “fix” and ANY less risky in today’s NFL is asinine 

Edited March 5, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Mat68]

12 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Why would you want someone at #9 with aimited route tree? 

Coming out Calvin Johnson could only run fly routes.  That seemed to work out ok.  Play to your players strengths.  It's not like he wont be taught how to run routes better. 

[BarleyNY]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Coming out Calvin Johnson could only run fly routes.  That seemed to work out ok.  Play to your players strengths.  It's not like he wont be taught how to run routes better. 

 

Thats not remotely true. CJ was incredibly productive in college and was excellent running short and intermediate routes due to his cutting ability.  Metcalf can boast none of that.

Edited March 5, 2019 by BarleyNY

[Big Turk]

36 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And they let him walk for a 5th round player. Point is sorry if people think OL in the early rounds is a sure thing. It isn’t with the way colleges are today. 

 

It it used to be, but changed and the only ones that don’t see it are stuck in old school football. 

Except for Mike Williams...

[jletha]

https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1102267158485184512

 

No thanks. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/where-have-the-wideouts-gone-explaining-the-recent-bust-rate-for-first-round-wrs/

 

Please no.

Edited March 5, 2019 by jletha

[Jay_Fixit]

26 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Coming out Calvin Johnson could only run fly routes.  That seemed to work out ok.  Play to your players strengths.  It's not like he wont be taught how to run routes better. 

This is quite incorrect.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Ok so tell me how many team recently draft OL in the 1st round get to the SB?

You can’t be serious 

52 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And they let him walk for a 5th round player. Point is sorry if people think OL in the early rounds is a sure thing. It isn’t with the way colleges are today. 

 

It it used to be, but changed and the only ones that don’t see it are stuck in old school football. 

They let him walk after how many years? 

 

They drafted an OL in the 1st rd last year as well.  Your point is manufactured and doesn’t really exist 

[Mat68]

30 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

This is quite incorrect.

No Gtech was a triple option and he literally ran flys and curls.

[CommonCents]

5 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

No Gtech was a triple option and he literally ran flys and curls.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2050587-looking-back-at-nfl-draft-profiles-from-back-in-the-day.amp.html

 

Look at his scouting report, best player in the draft. Picked 2nd overall even with his failed drug test. There was no questions about his ability to get in and out of routes.

 

IIRC Chan Gailey was at Tech with CJ and they ran pro sets. 

 

Calvin was a beast.

[BuffAlone]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Off top of my head well there is Jones, Jeffery to name two quick ones. 

 

I am not opposed to OL to help Allen. But to think a first round OL is a “fix” and ANY less risky in today’s NFL is asinine 

I never said a first round OL was a "fix". Nor do I think that. So I don't know whats asinine other than your assumptions that I said that, or believe that. What I believe is that DK Metcalf is nothing worth #9 and he won't "fix" this team. My opinion is we would do a better service to Josh Allen if we went early and often to upgrade the oline. That said, I'm hoping for Ed Oliver at 9. Not a WR. I just don't see that helping this team in the immediate future

Edited March 5, 2019 by BuffAlone

[Jay_Fixit]

22 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2050587-looking-back-at-nfl-draft-profiles-from-back-in-the-day.amp.html

 

Look at his scouting report, best player in the draft. Picked 2nd overall even with his failed drug test. There was no questions about his ability to get in and out of routes.

 

IIRC Chan Gailey was at Tech with CJ and they ran pro sets. 

 

Calvin was a beast.

This is quite correct.

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

I agree with this. General thought, not necessarily directed at you:  From the Bills current situation, can they afford to miss in the first round at WR or OL? 

 

To me, I don't think the risk is worth the reward at WR, especially with a player like Metcalf. Allen needs consistent, reliable play makers. They can't afford to wait around for your first round pick to develop into the WR you hoped he would become. 

 

I'd rather see them get someone with a high floor at WR, whether they draft one or get someone from free agency. Take 9 and improve the trenches with a plug and play that can immediately help your team abd offers little risk of impedeing Allen's development 

I honestly can’t comment on Metcalf as I don’t really follow college too much so I’ll defer that to you.

 

But ya just hoping they get an impact player at 9 regardless of what position that player is

 

 

[Mat68]

36 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2050587-looking-back-at-nfl-draft-profiles-from-back-in-the-day.amp.html

 

Look at his scouting report, best player in the draft. Picked 2nd overall even with his failed drug test. There was no questions about his ability to get in and out of routes.

 

IIRC Chan Gailey was at Tech with CJ and they ran pro sets. 

 

Calvin was a beast.

Sorry confused the colligant career to Demerius Thomas.  Both from Georgia Tech, and good size.

[papazoid]

BUYER  BEWARE !!

 

just watched film of Metcalf vs LSU Greedy Williams

 

greedy dominated him. Metcalf can't cut or get separation. only straight ahead over the top speed. unwilling blocker.

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ta9jNtHxYM

[BobbyC81]

On 3/3/2019 at 9:06 AM, JustWinPlease said:

I would take DK Metcalf in the 1st round, and then trade into the end of the 1st round for Noah Fant. (Get veteran OL in free agency.)

 

Yes, with the number of first round OL  that haven’t panned out in recent years, I think going for established veteran free agents is the better bet.

[MAJBobby]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

You can’t be serious 

They let him walk after how many years? 

 

They drafted an OL in the 1st rd last year as well.  Your point is manufactured and doesn’t really exist 

 

And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL. 

8 hours ago, BuffAlone said:

I never said a first round OL was a "fix". Nor do I think that. So I don't know whats asinine other than your assumptions that I said that, or believe that. What I believe is that DK Metcalf is nothing worth #9 and he won't "fix" this team. My opinion is we would do a better service to Josh Allen if we went early and often to upgrade the oline. That said, I'm hoping for Ed Oliver at 9. Not a WR. I just don't see that helping this team in the immediate future

 

But there are people that think Jonah Williams will come in and “fix” the OL?  Where at OG because he isn’t a Tackle in the NFL. 

[NewEraBills]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Why would you want someone at #9 with aimited route tree? 

 

I don't know what else he can do I just know that's what he can do based on the tape.  Secondly, why wouldn't I want someone at 9 that fits my QB.  People are not looking at who we have at QB and what his strengths are.  Allen is a down the field thrower.  So why not get him a down the field WR.  To me Metcalf fits perfectly with our QB's strengths.  Highlight our players strengths and do the best to hide their weaknesses.

Edited March 5, 2019 by NewEraBills

[Chicken Boo]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

How does he help Allen any more than someone who could be taken in the second round? What skills does he have, or has shown, that would offer Allen consistency improvement?

 

Did you see the combine or any of his highlight vids?

[thebandit27]

11 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And they let him walk for a 5th round player. Point is sorry if people think OL in the early rounds is a sure thing. It isn’t with the way colleges are today. 

 

It it used to be, but changed and the only ones that don’t see it are stuck in old school football. 

 

Actually, they spent the 22nd overall pick in last year's draft on Solder's replacement--he just happened to get hurt and Trent Brown stepped in

[NewEraBills]

3 hours ago, papazoid said:

BUYER  BEWARE !!

 

just watched film of Metcalf vs LSU Greedy Williams

 

greedy dominated him. Metcalf can't cut or get separation. only straight ahead over the top speed. unwilling blocker.

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ta9jNtHxYM

 

How do you draw, 1) unwilling blocker; 2) can't cut; 3) can't get separation from that?  The majority of what he ran are go routes.  Name me one WR this year that got separation from Greedy Williams.  That's why he's the #1 CB in the draft.  Just because he couldn't outrun Greedy he can't get separation?  All that means is he couldn't get separation from Greedy but that doesn't mean he can't make plays.  He did have a couple of good catches with Greedy having superb coverage.

 

The pass at 00:16 shouldn't have been thrown to Metcalf.  That's a bad read by the QB

At 00:39 this is a fantastic match up.  Metcalf gets Greedy to commit pass interference here.

1:05 quick hitch

1:14 Comeback route.  I would have liked to see him catch this one.

1:31 Did a good job of getting in the way as a blocker on the screen

1:50 another quick hitch

2:30 Great 1 v 1 coverage the QB decides to go opposite of Greedy.  Looks like the Safety may have been cheating over to that side as he did at 00:16.  Whoever #5 is has to hold on to this one.

3:00 another quick hitch

3:17 Comeback route vs off coverage.  LSU is giving them this to get off the field so to me this is not a grade play.  

3:34 Stop and go.  QB is pressured.

4:27 that's just on DK there.  Gotta be more careful with his hands.

5:03, I would have liked to see the QB throw that one to Metcalf's outside shoulder.  Greedy made a great play there.

5:52 - good block

6:04 catch on the comeback route.  Looked like it could have been a nasty leg injury on the fall but he wasn't injured.

6:11 whiff block

6:17 blocks but it's insignificant since the play is going the other way

6:23 quick stop route vs off coverage

6:36/37 DB did a fantastic job of using the sideline.  Pass was overthrown anyway.

7:26 Too high from the QB

7:33 Slant route, QB read the right side.  Metcalf is open on the backside slant.  The coverage is good but he has the inside leverage.  QB scrambled once everything on the right was muddied.

8:22 - tipped pass - curl route

 

On these plays

00:24 RPO, I'm not sure I would say he's an unwilling blocker here.

 

 

 

Notice on every play what Greedy Williams is NOT doing.  He's not trying to press Metcalf, he's just running with him.  The Bama game showed what happens when guys try to press and run with him.  All in all, as an individual performance, not a bad game.  The bulk of LSU pass snaps were quick game concepts with Metcalf running Go routes.  However, they did have him run quick hitches, slants, comebacks, hitch and go.  So I  don't see why people keep spitting out the narrative of a 1 route WR.  Does he run the entire route tree, NOPE.  Does he get pressed?  No.  Did he dictate coverage?  To some degree.  00:16 the Safety is cheating over which results in an INT by the safety; 2:30 the safety is cheating over which results in a 1 v 1 where #5 just has to hold on to that pass.  So I don't see a bad game and I don't see him getting dominated in this game as you say.  He made some plays against the best CB in the country.  He had 1 offensive pass INT and he had 1 drop.  Otherwise looking at the tape and what Ole Miss was running vs what LSU was doing I thought he had a decent game.  The unwillingness of the best CB in the country to try and press him shows a great deal of respect for his ability at the line.

Edited March 5, 2019 by NewEraBills

[BuffAlone]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL. 

 

But there are people that think Jonah Williams will come in and “fix” the OL?  Where at OG because he isn’t a Tackle in the NFL. 

Yeah, if you've noticed ANY of my posts,  Im not that guy. In fact, I have said no way to Jonah, who could very well be a Gaurd, at #9. In fact, he's the 4th-5th OL on my list and I think may drop to the 2nd round. That said, if he's there at 40, and is BPA at the time, I wouldn't hate it. We need help everywhere, including G. No way do I take him at 9. I wouldn't necessarily be overjoyed at taking Taylor or Dillard or Ford at #9, but if they are BPA at #9 and fills an immediate need, I'm ok with it. Beane has already said he didn't feel there were any "elite" oline at 9, but if the combine changed his opinion at all, I trust him. He also has said their opinion is that they do not believe in the notion of a true "#1" WR in today's NFL. So I'd be hard pressed to believe they go DK at 9. They believe its more about matchups these days. FWIW.  Sstrength at the top of this draft is D-line. Would even throw in Devin White to that mix. Kyle's replacement is there for the taking and meets value/need. I think that's where they go and I'd be happy happy happy to grab Oliver,Allen, or even Wilkinson at 9. Just my take on it...