Bills Should Be Judicious in Free Agency

[gordong]

based on History....  He should sign nothing but backups...  HE SUCKS at signing F/A...

[Logic]

I agree with the OP. Luckily, so does Brandon Beane, based on his comments at the end-of-year presser.

For fans that want him to go out and spend like a drunken sailor at port, I think there will be disappointment. He's never going to be a Doug Whaley when it comes to free agency. Nor should he be. Like he said, that would put the Bills right back in the same place they were before he arrived. But I do think the Bills will add some quality players.

Think about this: In their cap-constrained 2017 and 2018 offseasons, the Bills still added Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Trent Murphy, Star Lotulelei, Chris Ivory, Patrick DiMarco, and Stephen Hauschka. The first four guys helped make the Bills the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL in 2018. The two offensive guys are only role players, yes, but they have contributed as role players. The last guy has won a few games for the Bills singlehandedly. And these were their acquisitions when they had almost no cap space. So I DO expect to see some quality pieces added in free agency...it just won't be the marquee name, instant-transformation guys that many want. Beane will instead use his money to lock up guys like Dawkins, Zay, Milano, White, etc.

This will be the most exciting and interesting Bills offseason in quite some time.

 

2 minutes ago, gordong said:

based on History....  He should sign nothing but backups...  HE SUCKS at signing F/A...

That's weird, I seem to recall the Bills having the 2nd ranked defense in the entire NFL in 2018. Star taking on double team blocks all year absolutely contributed to that. Murphy, though he struggled with injury, also helped the defense. He was arguably the second best DE on the Bills roster.

And even though it was under Whaley's watch officially, McDermott was "buying the groceries" when the team signed Poyer and Hyde. All they've done is become one of the top five best starting safety duos in the NFL.

Yes, he's had some misses. He's also been incredibly constrained by the Bills' poor cap situation and status as an undesirable destination. Let's see what he's able to do with a bunch of cap space before we say he "sucks" at signing free agents, eh?

[ProcessTruster]

my sense is they will mostly spend on extending guys they  drafted and like on their own roster, Milano, Tre White, Foster, Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Lawson

[BillsVet]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree with the OP. Luckily, so does Brandon Beane, based on his comments at the end-of-year presser.

For fans that want him to go out and spend like a drunken sailor at port, I think there will be disappointment. He's never going to be a Doug Whaley when it comes to free agency. Nor should he be. Like he said, that would put the Bills right back in the same place they were before he arrived. But I do think the Bills will add some quality players.

Think about this: In their cap-constrained 2017 and 2018 offseasons, the Bills still added Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Trent Murphy, Star Lotulelei, Chris Ivory, Patrick DiMarco, and Stephen Hauschka. The first four guys helped make the Bills the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL in 2018. The two offensive guys are only role players, yes, but they have contributed as role players. The last guy has won a few games for the Bills singlehandedly. And these were their acquisitions when they had almost no cap space. So I DO expect to see some quality pieces added in free agency...it just won't be the marquee name, instant-transformation guys that many want. Beane will instead use his money to lock up guys like Dawkins, Zay, Milano, White, etc.

This will be the most exciting and interesting Bills offseason in quite some time.

 

That's weird, I seem to recall the Bills having the 2nd ranked defense in the entire NFL in 2018. Star taking on double team blocks all year absolutely contributed to that. Murphy, though he struggled with injury, also helped the defense. He was arguably the second best DE on the Bills roster.

And even though it was under Whaley's watch officially, McDermott was "buying the groceries" when the team signed Poyer and Hyde. All they've done is become one of the top five best starting safety duos in the NFL.

Yes, he's had some misses. He's also been incredibly constrained by the Bills' poor cap situation and status as an undesirable destination. Let's see what he's able to do with a bunch of cap space before we say he "sucks" at signing free agents, eh?

 

With a screen name like "Logic" I'd expect some logic to a post like this.  There isn't much.  The biggest contract Whaley handed out went to Dareus, not a UFA.  And of course there was McCoy's extension when he'd been traded for. Same for Cordy Glenn and Jerry Hughes.  Fact is, Whaley re-signed his own (questionable) guys, some of whom were cut loose by McBeane.  

 

As for the cap-constrained additions, Ivory did next to nothing this year, DiMarco didn't see the field much, and Haushka, as excellent as he is, did/does not win games on his own.  He makes some kicks, but it's a team game and the team got in his position for him.  Hyde and Poyer have been very good at times. You've left out the trades for Benjamin (not good), did not mention Murphy was frequently injured, or that Vontae Davis exited stage left at halftime of one game.  Their pro personnel decision making has been a lot of hit and miss. 

 

I would agree that this will indeed be the most exciting and interesting Bills off-season in quite some time, well, since last off-season that is.  

 

As for this narrative preached by so many about Buffalo having the second ranked defense, well, how much did that count for? They went 6-10 and were blown out 5 times this season.  When they needed to stop the run, for example in the second NE game, they couldn't.  Not all of that is on the defense, given the time of possession, but they were not good that day. 

 

 

 

Buffalo will need to spend this cap money somehow given the CBA requirements.  At present, there aren't many solid options available, especially on offense. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I want them to spend the money in FA on fixing the lines. I know it’s not sexy but there are no WRs or RBs in FA that I would even bother with. Use the money we have to fix the trenches. Then in the draft go nothing but skill position players. We are nowhere near physical enough and I don’t want rookies on the line in front of Allen. I want proven vets that understand the NFL game and that will come in and fix the run game immediately.

 

I'd like to see the Bills sign of the one top three FA interior lineman available, maybe the center Paradis. Then I'd try to sign another good lineman, maybe one that is over 30 that you can sign for a shorter contract, 2 to 3 years.  My thinking is this guy is a short term move and in the 2020 draft you use a high pick on his replacement.  For 2019 you now have Dawkins, Teller, two FA signings and would use a fairly high pick this year on one other lineman with the plan to start him in Sept.

 

How high I think it depends on how likely the Bills are to move Dawkins to another position.  If that is true, then I'd more like to see them draft a LT in the 1st round  (Q Nelson excluded, you typically don't need to use 1st round picks on interior lineman)  If not moving Dawkins then maybe a 2nd or a 3rd rounder on a lineman.

 

Also like to see them sign two WR, again one real good one, and another decent one, and also use a higher draft pick on a WR too.

 

I'd resign Hughes, for McCoy based on his output think I'd offer to extend him this year for 2 to 3 years at a fairly substantial reduced incentive based contract.  If he declines, then time to move on as don't think he's worth his present contract based on his age.  McD and Beane both said they want McCoy back, but they didn't specify at what cost.  I'd also use draft picks on their replacements for a year or two down the road.

[machine gun kelly]

They are not going to overspend, and will keep reserves to resign people in 2020, and continue this path for several years.

[BillsVet]

5 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

my sense is they will mostly spend on extending guys they  drafted and like on their own roster, Milano, Tre White, Foster, Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Lawson

 

Milano, White, Foster, T. Johnson and Jones aren't eligible this off-season for contract extensions.  Lawson isn't their "own guy" either. Poyer is signed through 2020 and Hyde through 2021. 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Actually Stars contract is on par.

 

With what?

 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Actually Stars contract is on par.

I didn’t know the going rate for a bad DT was 10 million... That’s interesting 

[GETTOTHE50]

Plz get glowinski and paradis. A new whole oline would be great 

[chris heff]

Do you think they should sign Jordan Phillips?

[Aussie Joe]

It will be fun to bump this thread in a couple of months as it doesn’t matter who Beane signs there will be plenty of people saying he spent too much money..

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

6 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Do you think they should sign Jordan Phillips?

 

I think you let him test the market to see his value. He isn't a key player, but he's a rotational piece that we should try to get back. You just can't overpay. He is better than Harrison Phillips. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

One thing I will say about centers, I really like Mitch Morse, Paradis, and even Nick Easton.

 

I think we go after Morse as a Reid guy as there is familiarality there. He is also a very tall center at 6-6, which doesn't work for all quarterbacks, but would be fine for Josh Allen. 

 

Easton I like as well. I think he winds up with Pat Shurmur and the Giants. 

 

I think Paradis goes to to the Jets or stays in Denver. The Jets are the team with a center need who have more cap than us. Colts don't need one. 

 

If if you miss out on Morse I think you are okay with Bodine if you sign two really good guards. Quinton Spain and Mark Glowinski come to mind. There is enough money to sign both. 

 

At tackle you go after Daryl Williams or Josh Wells. 

 

Btw, people who want to draft an offensive lineman in the first round, look at the guys we are talking about giving good money to. 

 

Paradis - 6th round

Morse - 2nd round

Easton - UDFA

Spain - UDFA

Glowinski - 4th round 

Daryl Williams - 4th round

Josh Wells - UDFA

 

Its all about finding the right guys and developing them, not reaching on guys to fill holes. 

 

 

Outstanding point regarding draft position of offensive lineman.

 

The people who think that throwing early draft picks at the problem is going to instantly create a solution right away are not paying attention.

 

Flush with cap room and needing to turn around the program in year 3 they need to fill the positions with game-ready vets in FA and collect a couple more guys to develop in the middle and late part of the draft.

 

[chris heff]

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I think you let him test the market to see his value. He isn't a key player, but he's a rotational piece that we should try to get back. You just can't overpay. He is better than Harrison Phillips. 

Wouldn’t that be contrary to their stated philosophy of re-sign your own and draft?

[Augie]

15 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

It will be fun to bump this thread in a couple of months as it doesn’t matter who Beane signs there will be plenty of people saying he spent too much money..

 

 

 

....or signed all the wrong people, or didn’t spend enough money to get the guy they wanted or.....the possibilities are endless!   ?

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, chris heff said:

Wouldn’t that be contrary to their stated philosophy of re-sign your own and draft?

 

Yes and no. I'd be curious to see what his value is. He probably thinks he is a starter, whereas he is a rotational player here. 

 

When Beane said resign your own, I think he was talking about down the line, Tredavious etc. he's not going to break the bank on superstar free agents. He wants financial flexibility to sign his own when they come up for a pay day. 

 

This franchise has lost lost too many good players over the years becuase we couldn't pay them. Pat Williams, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Poz, etc etc etc. 

[chris heff]

I see that there are a few people that think they need two guards, I asked this earlier has judgment been passed on Teller after six games?

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

my sense is they will mostly spend on extending guys they  drafted and like on their own roster, Milano, Tre White, Foster, Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Lawson

 

None of the Bills drafted guys on your list are even eligible for extensions per the CBA.

 

I know it's been two decades since the Bills had to worry about being close to the salary cap so the nuance is completely lost on the average Bills fan after decades of irrelevance............but the players association doesn't want young players taking discount deals after their first couple seasons...........contracts are driven up by the threat of unrestricted free agency.   So you have to wait until late in a first contract players deal to extend them.

 

You aren't alone in not understanding this.........we have an entire thread here on TSW with about 20 different people talking about signing Shaq to a discounted 2 year contract extension this offseason when he's not even eligible.   All they can do this offseason is choose to guarantee him $10M in 2020 or let his contract expire after 2019.

[formerlyofCtown]

39 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I didn’t know the going rate for a bad DT was 10 million... That’s interesting 

He isnt abad DT he is doing what he is supposed to do but you would actually have to know about football to understand that.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I see that there are a few people that think they need two guards, I asked this earlier has judgment been passed on Teller after six games?

 

No, but he should not be their de facto plan as a starting guard 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:

Can someone define judicious, please?

It's what Marv said on the sidelines. "You over judicuos jerk"....

Nobody expects Beane to go on some 60 second shopping spree. He's going to do his research,  be very selective and target those guys he and McD covet. If there's roll over money left so be it. Just don't dish out $ to lazy malcontents. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

No, but he should not be their de facto plan as a starting guard 

 

Im with this. I like Teller, and I really like him with a center upgrade. We need a center, a guard and a right tackle. An upgrade at the center spot makes me much more comfortable rolling with Teller. If Bodine is going to be our starter, I feel like we need two guards. 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Im with this. I like Teller, and I really like him with a center upgrade. We need a center, a guard and a right tackle. An upgrade at the center spot makes me much more comfortable rolling with Teller. If Bodine is going to be our starter, I feel like we need two guards. 

 

I'm fine with hedging the bet on Teller and Boettger by signing a vet like Ramon Foster to a one year deal. That way if Teller or Boettger wins the job you still have a vet backup but aren't tied to an overpriced deal for multiple seasons 

[chris heff]

6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Im with this. I like Teller, and I really like him with a center upgrade. We need a center, a guard and a right tackle. An upgrade at the center spot makes me much more comfortable rolling with Teller. If Bodine is going to be our starter, I feel like we need two guards. 

Wasn’t Bodine a FA signing last offseason? What kind of a contract does he have? 

[3rdand12]

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Outstanding point regarding draft position of offensive lineman.

 

The people who think that throwing early draft picks at the problem is going to instantly create a solution right away are not paying attention.

 

Flush with cap room and needing to turn around the program in year 3 they need to fill the positions with game-ready vets in FA and collect a couple more guys to develop in the middle and late part of the draft.

 

to jump in here with you MRE,

OT are not falling from trees in FA.
Beane and Daboll need to focus on what and how they build this line to protect Allen 

Now , and long term. no small feat as i see it.

as you mentioned , it is difficult as heck to drop a rookie Lineman into battle and get him stable. and that is multiplied exponentially when you need to replace 2 or 3 to upgrade.
I would overpay a solid Veteran ( if one or 3 ) can be found. And draft some ideally.
More likely to get day one impact players on D line.
Bills have needs that FA must resolve

21 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I see that there are a few people that think they need two guards, I asked this earlier has judgment been passed on Teller after six games?

I hope not.
But the whole line should be starkly reviewed and open to upgrades

[3rdand12]

6 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Wasn’t Bodine a FA signing last offseason? What kind of a contract does he have? 

yes.Got injured  and replaced by Ryan Groy ,who is really a guard , and potential swing guard.
Bodine was improving.
But being the heart and soul of the Line?

 i would love to see that position dialed in a bit better.But if Bodine plays out his second year , i can deal with it.
 

[BuffaloBill]

The O-line is the glaring area of need and the Bills should be able to address it through the draft and FA’s.  If Foster had not stepped up as the season has gone on then WR position would be more of a glaring need.  Not saying a true #1 is there but O-line is worse.

[Logic]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

With a screen name like "Logic" I'd expect some logic to a post like this.  There isn't much.  The biggest contract Whaley handed out went to Dareus, not a UFA.  And of course there was McCoy's extension when he'd been traded for. Same for Cordy Glenn and Jerry Hughes.  Fact is, Whaley re-signed his own (questionable) guys, some of whom were cut loose by McBeane.  

 

As for the cap-constrained additions, Ivory did next to nothing this year, DiMarco didn't see the field much, and Haushka, as excellent as he is, did/does not win games on his own.  He makes some kicks, but it's a team game and the team got in his position for him.  Hyde and Poyer have been very good at times. You've left out the trades for Benjamin (not good), did not mention Murphy was frequently injured, or that Vontae Davis exited stage left at halftime of one game.  Their pro personnel decision making has been a lot of hit and miss. 

 

I would agree that this will indeed be the most exciting and interesting Bills off-season in quite some time, well, since last off-season that is.  

 

As for this narrative preached by so many about Buffalo having the second ranked defense, well, how much did that count for? They went 6-10 and were blown out 5 times this season.  When they needed to stop the run, for example in the second NE game, they couldn't.  Not all of that is on the defense, given the time of possession, but they were not good that day. 

 

 

 

Buffalo will need to spend this cap money somehow given the CBA requirements.  At present, there aren't many solid options available, especially on offense. 

The only thing I'll say in response is that if I'm guilty of looking at the Bills' tenure under Beane and McDermott with overly rose-colored glasses -- and I may be -- then many of Beane's critics are just as guilty of a lack of objectivity, cherry-picking only his bad moves and not giving him credit for his good moves. The truth is probably that BOTH sides are presenting an incomplete picture. Beane has made good moves and bad moves. He's not flawless, but he's also not bad at his job and CERTAINLY doesn't deserve the criticism that he gets from some corner of Bills nation. Considering his job on the whole so far, I'd give him a positive grade, but I also understand those who give him a negative grade -- I understand them TO A POINT, anyway. 

In any case, I think we can all agree that this coming offseason will tell us a lot about how good Beane is or isn't as a general manager. 2018 was also very instructive in that regard, and his identifying and selection of what appear to be franchise quarterbacks for the offense and defense are what lead to my giving him an overall positive grade. Again, as long as people are objective in their analysis, I welcome contrary opinions.

[chris heff]

4 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

yes.Got injured  and replaced by Ryan Groy ,who is really a guard , and potential swing guard.
Bodine was improving.
But being the heart and soul of the Line?

 i would love to see that position dialed in a bit better.But if Bodine plays out his second year , i can deal with it.
 

Looked up Bodine, he signed a two year contract lat year, can’t be a big deal, nor do they view him as the answer.

[WhoTom]

4 hours ago, OJ Tom said:

I was sure he was gonna come out with a statement declaring that they planned to take a "lavish and foolish" approach to Free Agency this off-season.

 

Whenever I leave for a road trip and someone says, "Drive carefully," I always respond with, "Nah - I'm gonna drive like a maniac instead."

 

 

[Gunsgoodtime]

5 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Star’s contract shows me that Beane will pay what it takes to to bring someone in that fills a need..

 

 

I just hope they look outside of Carolina more, enough with the Carolina signings

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 hours ago, chris heff said:

You’re ready to give up on Teller after what six games?

Not give up but certainly not impressed enough to start. There are more linemen then just the starters

[racketmaster]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  This is a nice analysis of how I think the will handle the off-season.

 

They want to grow young players, so they're going to be careful signing older free agents.   The kind of guy I'd expect to see them spend on is a guy drafted in the first or second round coming off his rookie deal, a guy who underperformed his draft position.   A guy McBeane scouted and wanted in Carolina, a guy they know is an athlete and who buys into the process.  

 

People here will complain that they're signing busts, but that's not what they'll think they're doing.   They're looking for guys whose pro coaches didn't challenge them the right way to get them to perform.  

I think we know this much about Beane and McDermott, they will seek out players who are about team, highly competitive and love football. They believe that getting players who are wired like that will enable them to fit into the culture they have created and will do everything they can to get better as a player. Beyond that, I think we are still learning about the types of players Beane prefers. He has only had 1 draft with the Bills and been involved with 1 free agency period so it is hard to make to many assumptions. Plus, the Bills have been in salary cap jail and going through a tear down since he got here. The quarterback has been obtained and Beane is now in the process of building things back up. So for example, I would not expect to see nearly as many trades from Beane going forward. Many of the players he has traded have been for salary cap and culture reasons or an attempt to acquire more assets to get their quarterback. Now that they have mostly guys they have acquired (draft and free agency) I see Beane being much more selective with trades. 

 

My assumption on Beane is that he will be open to signing any free agent that can upgrade a position of need and comes at a reasonable price (plus they have to have the mentality discussed above). So if that means signing an older veteran lineman to a 1 or 2 year deal then he will do it if he thinks that player has 1 or 2 good years left. You likely won't see Beane handing out contracts like the Redskins did years ago to older veterans in which they were getting 4 and 5 year deals (that's too much risk for Beane). As you said, they may target higher round draft picks who have under performed so far as long as they see something about the situation that was not right for that player to development. But I actually think it might be more likely that Beane targets free agents who were lower round picks or undrafted. Players he liked in college and have been in bad situations so that they have had limited opportunities with their respective teams. For example, a wide receiver who has been stuck behind several higher profile wrs. They have flashed potential and maybe Beane has even got some inside intel from a coach/player/scout with that team that indicates this player could be much better if given more of an opportunity. It seems more likely those would be the players he would target but I think Beane is smart enough to jump on whatever opportunity presents itself.

 

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Because he is from CAROLINA

Im hopeful that game has ended

[racketmaster]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

You are really worried about Zay Jones contract two years from now? 

 

Hell, even Dion Dawkins? Why?

 

 

Fill holes in FA however way possible. Even if that means overspending a bit.

No, I'm not too worried about Zay Jones at present but I'm not the one who drafted Jones (McDermott had a hand in that). So they may feel more invested in his development as a player and more confident in his abilities. I still think Dawkins is a solid player who was not surrounded by a very talented lineman corps. But the point is that the Bills will have numerous young players coming up to the end of their contracts after 2 years. It will be the start of this regime being able to retain their guys on their second contracts here. I think Beane is forward thinking in that he does not want to frivolously spend in free agency now because bad signings will always come back to bite a team. I think Beane wants to be judicious now so that he can sign his guys later. Even 1 or 2 bad contracts now can cause a team to lose 1 or 2 of "their guys" later because the team can't get out from under the contract or have to cut them and eat dead money. 

Edited January 1, 2019 by racketmaster

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

No, I'm not too worried about Zay Jones at present but I'm not the one who drafted Jones (McDermott had a hand in that). So they may feel more invested in his development as a player and more confident in his abilities. I still think Dawkins is a solid player who was not surrounded by a very talented lineman corps. But the point is that the Bills will have numerous young players coming up to the end of their contracts after 2 years. It will be the start of this regime being able to retain their guys on their second contracts here. I think Beane is forward thinking in that he does not want to frivolously spend in free agency now because bad signings will always come back to bite a team. I think Beane wants to be judicious now so that he can sign his guys later. Even 1 or 2 bad contracts now can cause a team to lose 1 or 2 of "their guys" later because the team can't get out from under the contract or have to cut them and eat dead money. 

 

This means that he has two clear years to splurge a bit and front load a couple of contracts...

 

Also they can get out of Star’s contract at the end of 2020 which will free up a bit more money if required..

 

Not sure the 2017 draft class needs to be front of mind this off season..

 

 

Edited January 1, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[hemma]

Greg Robinson is a UFA and played like an actual football player for the last 1/2 of the season for the Browns.

Took awhile for his eyes to open, but still only 26 and a former #2 overall.

 

Try to get lucky on this guy.

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

rt is a must!

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

The O-line is the glaring area of need and the Bills should be able to address it through the draft and FA’s.  If Foster had not stepped up as the season has gone on then WR position would be more of a glaring need.  Not saying a true #1 is there but O-line is worse.

 

I'd like to see Beane go after an experienced RT like Bobbie Massie from CHI.

What do you guys think?

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, chris heff said:

Wasn’t Bodine a FA signing last offseason? What kind of a contract does he have? 

 

He's basically making backup money and I think he is signed for another year. He's the perfect backup with a lot of experience and can play guard and center. I don't think he's good enough to be a long term starter. He can also be cut with very little cap impact.