Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

I'll preface this by saying I really like Allen but that said this is the same group from last year.  Funny how the song has changed from horrible QB to horrible WR's.  Granted I thought it was horrible WR's the whole time but fans love to play to a narrative.

Me personally, I thought it was a terrible group last year as well.  

[Socal-805]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Such ignorance around here

 

 

Did you actually READ the article?

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Did you actually READ the article?

 

 

Yes I did and have commented on it extensively herein as to the difficulties in such analyses.  Some of us don't blindly take numbers someone throws out there to support a set conviction as you have done.

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

You sure about that?  

 

Wanna post the numbers to back it up?  

 

Because I see the difference between this season's team and last season's team as being the difference between last season's 7th-ranked +9 TO ratio and this season's 28th-ranked -8.  

 

Cleveland had the 32nd-ranked -28 last season and are 4th this season at +9.  

 

Of Cleveland's 41 total giveaways last season, Kizer had 28 of them.  22 INTs and 6 lost fumbles of 9 total fumbles.  He started 15 games.  

Of Buffalo's 31 giveaways this season, Allen has 13 of them.  11 INTs and 2 lost fumbles of 8 total fumbles.  He's started 10 games, 2/3 as many.  

 

Kizer's rate of TO was 1.9, Allen's is 1.3, but the big difference there is the recovered fumbles.  Allen's INT rate is worse than Mayfield and far worse than Jackson, his closest QB comp, and almost the same as Darnold and Rosen but both of them have more passing TDs, Darnold by over twice, and it's not because he has better WRs and RBs or even OL.  Allen ranks 29th of 33 in INT%, not good.  

 

Either way, at the same rate of recovered fumbles, which is essentially pure luck, Allen's TO rate moves to 1.5/game.  Allen has the worst TD/INT ratio of any QB in the league that has started more than a couple of games, meaning among starting QBs.  Rosen's close, but after that it's pretty distant to the next one.  

 

Either way, if you think he can continue on that path and become a franchise QB, great.  Not sure what to say, but  that's my primary point, things are going to have to change drastically in that way in order for Allen to become a franchise QB.  I understand that you disagree.  

 

On a side note I will point out that the Bills under McBeane have not been able to win games unless they generate TOs.  Under McBeane they've only won twice when they didn't finish the game with a positive TO margin. 

 

They won with a neutral +/-0 against Detroit and then only at -2 vs. Indy in last year's snow game. 

When they finish at +4 they're 1-0.

When the finish at +3 they're 3-0.

When they finish at +2 they're 5-1. 

When they finish at +1 they're 3-1. 

When they finish at +/-0 they're 1-5. 

When they finish at -1 they're 0-3. 

When they finish at -2 they're 0-5. 

When they finish at -3 or worse they're 0-4.  

 

Last season Taylor had just over half the total TOs that Allen's had over a full season.  The 0-16 Browns actually out-played us on average last seaason, the only significant difference was us having a +9 and them having a -28.  Imagine if last season we had the -8 we have this season.  You still think we've have finished 9-7?  I'm thinking more like 2-14 under those circumstances.  Say what we want about Taylor, but scoring was greater and TOs didn't happen much.  

 

Relying on TOs to win games is hardly a way to build a competitive team.  

 

Happy New Year!  

 

Yes...and I don't need to write a novella to do so  

 

Allen's TD:TO ratio is 13:19 and he's 4-6 as a starter

 

Kizer's TD:TO ratio was 16:31 and he was 0-15 as a starter 

 

Not. Even. Close.

 

Happy New Year to you as well

Edited December 30, 2018 by thebandit27

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Did you actually READ the article?

 

 

Statistical numbers are presented. But somehow the spin always has to be positive. 

 

The supporting cast is poor. But we did make the same excuses about Trent Edwards. None of these Drought ex-QBs did anything when they went to other teams outside of Fitzpatrick’s brief flurries. 

 

The more excuses you have to make about a quarterback, the more it’s proof that he is not the guy. 

 

 

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's exactly where I'm at. The ridiculous plays he's able to make combined with a league that caters to QB's have given me the slightest bit of hope. I use the Trubisky model quite a bit because I personally hated him as a prospect and am frankly a little surprised that he's been able to have some success. I still don't think he's particularly good, but he's effective enough. We all WANT Allen to succeed, but as you've clearly demonstrated, he'd be defying some serious statistical odds.

 

BTW, I just reread that piece, it's excellent, his closing paragraph, the one that follows the one that I cited, also sums it up nicely.  

 

There is no comfort in betting on a quarterback prospect who does not consistently play to his skill set. Football Outsiders' own QBASE system projected Allen with more than a 60 percent chance to bust, due in large part to his inconsistent play breeding poor results on the stat sheet. Drafting Josh Allen is a commitment to developing a skill set that has yet to prove it can develop and does not have any tangible indicators to hint toward success. The gamble on Allen is too steep a price for the slim potential of a payoff.

 

That's where I'm at, and if you want a QB like that you don't make a trade like we got in the rarest of draft opportunities to put all your eggs in one basket.  

 

As well, I disagree entirely on the whole "their/our guy" thing.  A good coach should be able to coach any number of QBs and not simply one that appeals to them, particularly not one of a "kid in a candy shop" variety where he's flashy but simply doesn't get results because his fundamentals are so far below the norm that he becomes a huge project.  

 

I mean think of what else we could  have done by drafting Edmunds with our 12th and then four picks that we otherwise used to get Allen to get some OL and a WR, and maybe even a RB to replace Shady, instead.  

 

Then get a QB This year when there aren't a half-dozen teams with a dire need in that spot.  But alas, that first entails having a big-picture draft not to mention team-building strategy.  McBeane behave like Whaley in this regard, going for the flashiest shiniest thing, again, kid-in-a-candy-shop.  

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[Socal-805]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Yes I did and have commented on it extensively herein as to the difficulties in such analyses.  Some of us don't blindly take numbers someone throws out there to support a set conviction as you have done.

 

Ahh, OK.  NOW I understand.  

 

PFF simply throwing numbers out there.  Got it.

 

And I'm blind.

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Statistical numbers are presented. But somehow the spin always has to be positive. 

 

The supporting cast is poor. But we did make the same excuses about Trent Edwards. None of these Drought ex-QBs did anything when they went to other teams outside of Fitzpatrick’s brief flurries. 

 

The more excuses you have to make about a quarterback, the more it’s proof that he is not the guy. 

 

 

Why don't you for once stop with your nonsense?  No one is saying the kid has arrived.  He obviously has more to learn and more to improve on, and any cursory view of posts around here will show that.  What people do see though is the potential to become the guy.

 

When the only thing you can do is to deliberately lie about what people say it shows your ignorance.

Just now, Socal-805 said:

 

Ahh, OK.  NOW I understand.  

 

PFF simply throwing numbers out there.  Got it.

 

And I'm blind.

 

 

 

 

Yes.  Go back and read what I and others have discussed about the difficulties in such analyses.  But you won't because you have what is called confirmation bias.  You want Allen to fail therefore anything that says he will you suck up to and anything that challenges it you won't read.  Just as well; you likely wouldn't be able to understand it anyway.

[Socal-805]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Statistical numbers are presented. But somehow the spin always has to be positive. 

 

The supporting cast is poor. But we did make the same excuses about Trent Edwards. None of these Drought ex-QBs did anything when they went to other teams outside of Fitzpatrick’s brief flurries. 

 

The more excuses you have to make about a quarterback, the more it’s proof that he is not the guy. 

 

 

 

 

Well stated.

 

Re: Allen -  at least he's consistently inaccurate!  

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why don't you for once stop with your nonsense?  No one is saying the kid has arrived.  He obviously has more to learn and more to improve on, and any cursory view of posts around here will show that.  What people do see though is the potential to become the guy.

 

When the only thing you can do is to deliberately lie about what people say it shows your ignorance.

There have been numerous comments/members on this board stating the Bills have found their QB. You see all the instant defending that comes in when “negative” stories are presented about Allen. 

 

He should get 2019 to prove himself, along with this Coaching staff and FO. But Allen has not been good this year. He gets the ball into the end-zone 1.3x per game on average. The team scores 15 ppg and are bottom 3 in passing. 

 

Allen has been the same QB as he was in Wyoming. This staff is going to try and fix accuracy issues this off-season, and try to Coach him to read a defense.

 

The Bills drafted a talented project and that’s who he’s played like this season. 

Edited December 30, 2018 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Socal-805]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why don't you for once stop with your nonsense?  No one is saying the kid has arrived.  He obviously has more to learn and more to improve on, and any cursory view of posts around here will show that.  What people do see though is the potential to become the guy.

 

When the only thing you can do is to deliberately lie about what people say it shows your ignorance.

 

 

... And STOP calling everyone who disagrees with you ignorant.

 

 

[Ronin]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes...and I don't need to write a novella to do so  

 

Allen's TD:TO ratio is 13:19 and he's 4-6 as a starter

 

Kizer's TD:TO ratio was 16:31 and he was 0-15 as a starter 

 

Not. Even. Close.

 

Happy New Year to you as well

 

Thanks!  But 4+6 = 10 < 15.  

 

Averages my man, averages.  

 

You said that Allen's TO ratio wasn't even close,  I can go get the quote.  

 

It is relatively close when you factor in the pure luck in recovering 6 of 8 fumbles contrasted with recovering only 3 of 9.  Either way, to paint it as a non-factor like you're trying to do is ridiculous.  

 

Either way, Allen is bottom-dwelling and your argument appears to be that TOs/giveaways don't matter when I've proven to you that this team under McBeane in particular, simply can't win games unless they win the TO margin battle, even then, a positive TO margin the team wins only 65% of its games when they have a neutral or better TO margin.  

 

When they have a neutral or negative TO margin it's nearly assured that they'll lose, having lost 16 of 18 then.  They've won only 1 of 12, less than 10%, when it's negative.  

Edited December 30, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

... And STOP calling everyone who disagrees with you ignorant.

 

 

Go back and read then.  It's ignorant to argue when you have not even read what I and others have written about the potential problems with the PFF analysis.

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

The team is 5 - 10 and with the talent on offense, it was never going to be a competitive team. If you develop a franchise qb, you have the most important piece in being a long-term playoff team. So you think the fan base is irrational to be caring more about qb potential this year?

 

Yes I do.  You watching the game? 

It’s never about one player. 

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

 

LOL!   If the best you can come up with is that "it's all Allen's fault because the offense is the same as last year," you shouldn't even bother talking. 

 

 

Not by you at least. 

 

I’m teaching an ant calculus. It’s easier. 

Edited December 30, 2018 by nedboy7

[VW82]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Yes I did and have commented on it extensively herein as to the difficulties in such analyses.  Some of us don't blindly take numbers someone throws out there to support a set conviction as you have done.

 

Did you see the ESPN Stats & Info article I posted a few pages back? They came to a similar conclusion wrt his rate of off target throws. Interestingly, the numbers were eerily similar to my 20% theory from charting those three games (though I was including bad decisions as well; It’s unclear whether ESPN did). 

 

I thought he had numerous inaccurate throws in today’s game as well. On the whole he was obviously quite good. I’m excited to see how he progresses in year two.

[HappyDays]

On 12/29/2018 at 1:31 PM, HappyDays said:

IMO the reasons for that are, in order, Allen not reading the field properly, his surrounding cast, and then his accuracy. And I consider his accuracy well below the other two problems.

 

@jrober38 I had to come back to this after today's game. Allen was arguably less accurate today than usual. He sailed a few passes and his ball placement was off. But he finished with a 65.4% completion and a 114.9 passer rating. Why? Because he made good reads and his receivers caught the ball. Inaccuracy slightly worse but the other issues I listed were much better and it showed on the stat sheet. I think we can live with Allen's inconsistent accuracy as long as his positive traits are on as much as they were today.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

@jrober38 I had to come back to this after today's game. Allen was arguably less accurate today than usual. He sailed a few passes and his ball placement was off. But he finished with a 65.4% completion and a 114.9 passer rating. Why? Because he made good reads and his receivers caught the ball. Inaccuracy slightly worse but the other issues I listed were much better and it showed on the stat sheet. I think we can live with Allen's inconsistent accuracy as long as his positive traits are on as much as they were today.

 

lOoKeD tHe sAmE aS hE dId aT wYoMiNg

[Jrb1979]

The way he played today is the way they should build the offense around him.  Stop making him be a pocket passer. He is at his best when he runs around and is running the ball. He is never going to be a Tom Brady or Drew Brees. Nothing wrong with him playing like Vick or RG3 as that is his strength. 

[PearlHowardman]

10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I thought he had numerous inaccurate throws in today’s game as well. On the whole he was obviously quite good. I’m excited to see how he progresses in year two.

 

If the Buffalo Bills get to play the Miami Dolphins at home for 18 games next year we can expect to see decent progress with JA. Otherwise,...

 

[DuckyBoys]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

@jrober38 I had to come back to this after today's game. Allen was arguably less accurate today than usual. He sailed a few passes and his ball placement was off. But he finished with a 65.4% completion and a 114.9 passer rating. Why? Because he made good reads and his receivers caught the ball. Inaccuracy slightly worse but the other issues I listed were much better and it showed on the stat sheet. I think we can live with Allen's inconsistent accuracy as long as his positive traits are on as much as they were today.

receivers probably played their best game today  Still basically zero rushing and the Bills put up 42 pts  Allen and Zay finish off on a high note and hopefully more to come in 2019

[Alphadawg7]

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

If the Buffalo Bills get to play the Miami Dolphins at home for 18 games next year we can expect to see decent progress with JA. Otherwise,...

 

I expected nothing less ten this from you........

[Doc Brown]

 

[LSHMEAB]

There's no denying the kid makes plays no other quarterback can make. I've altered that from few because that rope he threw in the second half was insane as well as the long TD run. Just don't see it from anyone else.

 

There's also no denying that he threw several errant passes that you don't see from the top QB's. This is likely to be a sentimental day here at TBD with Kyle retiring and the offense lighting up the scoreboard, but we've got to keep things in perspective. If he can cut down on those errors, he's going to be a franchise QB.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

There's no denying the kid makes plays no other quarterback can make. I've altered that from few because that rope he threw in the second half was insane as well as the long TD run. Just don't see it from anyone else.

 

There's also no denying that he threw several errant passes that you don't see from the top QB's. This is likely to be a sentimental day here at TBD with Kyle retiring and the offense lighting up the scoreboard, but we've got to keep things in perspective. If he can cut down on those errors, he's going to be a franchise QB.

If he can consistantly play like he did today....then he i a franchise QB

 

but today was one of his best games

[Trogdor]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

If he can consistantly play like he did today....then he i a franchise QB

 

but today was one of his best games

I think that's what everyone is looking for. Unlike college, can he make performances like today a regular havit or not. 

[bigduke6]

when its 3rd down and whatever distance,  i believe that we have a chance to convert,  big difference from the QB i had to watch the last 4 years.    Allen is rough around the edges,  hes also a gamechanger,  and at this early point in his career thats a rare thing.    You can get better in the accuracy dept,  as well as reading the field.   You cant get better at the purely physical gifts that can make a player have an advantage over others.   Very satisfied with his rookie season.

[VW82]

I want to quickly address Hapless's point about how we don't really know on any of these throws whether the receiver ran the route correctly, and so therefore we can't say for sure that these off target throws are actually Allen's fault.

 

I think it's very valid on timing throws where the throw is made before the receiver makes his break; however, shouldn't we still put at least some (if not most) of the blame on the QB for not adjusting once he sees the receiver cut on an 80 degree angle as appose to 70 degrees for example? This isn't a video game where you pick your play and only throw to a spot regardless of what else is happening. IRL things change and we re-calculate on the spot. Food for thought. 

Edited December 30, 2018 by VW82

[PearlHowardman]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

There's also no denying that he threw several errant passes that you don't see from the top QB's.

 

Yup!

 

Josh Allen has the type of errant passes that keep teams from going far in the playoffs, if they ever get to the playoffs.  QB accuracy problems seldom, if ever, get corrected.

 

[Success]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

There's no denying the kid makes plays no other quarterback can make. I've altered that from few because that rope he threw in the second half was insane as well as the long TD run. Just don't see it from anyone else.

 

There's also no denying that he threw several errant passes that you don't see from the top QB's. This is likely to be a sentimental day here at TBD with Kyle retiring and the offense lighting up the scoreboard, but we've got to keep things in perspective. If he can cut down on those errors, he's going to be a franchise QB.

I watch a lot of football - you probably do too.   I see great QBs throw errant passes all the time.  Every game.

 

I think we get too hung up in Allen’s accuracy because it was the main concern for him coming out of college.  So, every time a pass sails, it’s like “there it is! Scouts were right.”  It just seems so minor to me compared to how he plays the game as a whole.  

3 minutes ago, Success said:

I watch a lot of football - you probably do too.   I see great QBs throw errant passes all the time.  Every game.

 

I think we get too hung up in Allen’s accuracy because it was the main concern for him coming out of college.  So, every time a pass sails, it’s like “there it is! Scouts were right.”  It just seems so minor to me compared to how he plays the game as a whole.  

And I just watched Mahomes sail 3 in a row.

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I want to quickly address Hapless's point about how we don't really know on any of these throws whether the receiver ran the route correctly, and so therefore we can't say for sure that these off target throws are actually Allen's fault.

 

I think it's very valid on timing throws where the throw is made before the receiver makes his break; however, shouldn't we still put at least some (if not most) of the blame on the QB for not adjusting once he sees the receiver cut on an 80 degree angle as appose to 70 degrees for example? This isn't a video game where you pick your play and only throw to a spot regardless of what else is happening. IRL we calculate on the spot. Food for thought. 

Some merit to this.  My thought about it is that it is difficult to see that 20 yards down the field when bodies are flying all around you and you have 2 seconds to throw the ball.  I understand that great QBs do this.  Probably some average QBs too.  Even some rookies.  Josh is a rookie who had little real competitive college experience.  Obviously he has some strides to make.  I like what I see so far though.

 

A further comment...  Some of these off target throws aren't really off target.  One of the ones to Zay that he threw behind him on a quick slant was likely on purpose to keep the ball away from the defender for instance.  Some people around here would call that inaccuracy when likely it was not.  He does each and every game though throw a few passes that make you think WTF.  I will not deny that.

 

Allen has a long way to go.  If he gets there though, this league better watch out.  I don't know if he will get there or not.  I would like to see him with some WR that can get separation more consistently, make more routine catches, and fight for 50/50 balls.  Some people think he is a bust. Some may not think he is a bust but still had a crap year. I think he is a kid that showed a lot of promise and what could be.  I think even though he has a long way to go, that he is far ahead of what the "draft experts" said he would be.  I think Allen had a pretty successful rookie season.  Our offense sucked but Allen was a bright spot on that offense.  How long has it been since anyone could say a Bills QB was a bright spot?

 

 

Edited December 30, 2018 by Scott7975

[dubs]

6 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

Yup!

 

Josh Allen has the type of errant passes that keep teams from going far in the playoffs, if they ever get to the playoffs.  QB accuracy problems seldom, if ever, get corrected.

 

 

Hahaha. You’re like George Costanza and your position on Josh Allen is like George’s house in the Hamptons.

 

Say hi to Prickly Pete!

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

And I just watched Mahomes sail 3 in a row.

 

Mahomes is not a precision passer. He is however excellent at reading the field and escaping pressure. I think Allen could get to his level, obviously he has a long way to go.

[Big Blitz]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes is not a precision passer. He is however excellent at reading the field and escaping pressure. I think Allen could get to his level, obviously he has a long way to go.

 

 

This.  But I think he's very close.  He doesn't have the luxury of having a Hunt, Kelce, or Hill.

[Success]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes is not a precision passer. He is however excellent at reading the field and escaping pressure. I think Allen could get to his level, obviously he has a long way to go.

I love Mahomes game.  I just think we overplay it when Allen has a bad overthrow.  Every QB has those.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Success said:

I love Mahomes game.  I just think we overplay it when Allen has a bad overthrow.  Every QB has those.

Every. Single. One.

[Doc]

5 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

Allow me to ask, what talent did Tyrod have that Allen does not?  Benjamin was the team's best WR both years.  He did nothing for Tyrod either.  

 

Can you name those better OL's, RBs, WRs, and TEs please?  I'm not seeing it.  

 

Couldn't you also by the same stroke then, and not assuming that what you said is true, that Allen has a better defense to help him out as well?  I mean weren't we ranked 1st most of the season until last week, and then what, Ravens #1 us #2?  

 

You think that a rookie undrafted RB in Baltimore is better?  OK, not sure I agree.  And frankly, who'se fault is all that even if it's true?  And assuming it is, then why is McD/McBeane getting as much credit as they are for as you imply, leaving the offense talent-less?  

 

Big picture

 

5 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's exactly where I'm at. The ridiculous plays he's able to make combined with a league that caters to QB's have given me the slightest bit of hope. I use the Trubisky model quite a bit because I personally hated him as a prospect and am frankly a little surprised that he's been able to have some success. I still don't think he's particularly good, but he's effective enough. We all WANT Allen to succeed, but as you've clearly demonstrated, he'd be defying some serious statistical odds.

He's choosing to ignore 2017 and focusing on 2015.

 

Not ignoring anything.  Again last year the Bills' OL was infinitely better than this year's, and so was the running game.  And again, Tyrod was in his 7th season with over 30 starts whereas Josh is in his first season and had 10 starts under his belt.  What I was referring to was 2015 where he had a good group of offensive talent and couldn't do much with it, and the same goes for his brief stint in Cleveland.

 

2 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

I’m teaching an ant calculus. It’s easier. 

 

Considering the quality of your posts, I'm surprised you can spell calculus, much less pass a course in it, much much less teach it to anyone or anything. 

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Statistical numbers are presented. But somehow the spin always has to be positive. 

 

The supporting cast is poor. But we did make the same excuses about Trent Edwards. None of these Drought ex-QBs did anything when they went to other teams outside of Fitzpatrick’s brief flurries. 

 

The more excuses you have to make about a quarterback, the more it’s proof that he is not the guy.

 

You mean like Tyrod?  Or how about Rosen?

[Dr. Who]

42 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

If the Buffalo Bills get to play the Miami Dolphins at home for 18 games next year we can expect to see decent progress with JA. Otherwise,...

 

You are certainly a donkey's donkey. Welcome to the ignore club.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Strange but thought he was more inaccurate today than most days and the stats show otherwise. He’s never going to be Brees but I’m hoping with a full offseason and a year older he gets better with pre-snap recognition, hitting the checks and another year of improved footwork.

 

Can we see a Trubisky level of improvement in Year 2?

[John from Riverside]

29 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

Yup!

 

Josh Allen has the type of errant passes that keep teams from going far in the playoffs, if they ever get to the playoffs.  QB accuracy problems seldom, if ever, get corrected.

 

Your posts are soooooo bad......