Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[Doc]

Just now, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Strange but thought he was more inaccurate today than most days and the stats show otherwise. He’s never going to be Brees but I’m hoping with a full offseason and a year older he gets better with pre-snap recognition, hitting the checks and another year of improved footwork.

 

Can we see a Trubisky level of improvement in Year 2?

 

Time will tell.  Need to get him the OL and weapons Trubisky has.

[LSHMEAB]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

You mean like Tyrod?  Or how about Rosen?

Nice game by Allen. We'll see how this offseason shakes out. 

 

I think it's time to let go of Tyrod. He's gone.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Time will tell.  Need to get him the OL and weapons Trubisky has.

 

Pace did an excellent job investing in his QB last off season. We need to do the same.

[Doc]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Nice game by Allen. We'll see how this offseason shakes out. 

 

I think it's time to let go of Tyrod. He's gone.

 

I let go of him after he was released.  But when people start bringing up last year and the vapid argument that it's the same players around Josh, his name has to be invoked.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Strange but thought he was more inaccurate today than most days and the stats show otherwise. He’s never going to be Brees but I’m hoping with a full offseason and a year older he gets better with pre-snap recognition, hitting the checks and another year of improved footwork.

 

Can we see a Trubisky level of improvement in Year 2?

 

Agree there were some bad throws today. But some incredible plays too. And that is the point with Josh. He completed 52% against Detroit and it was one of his most consistently accurate days. He completed 65% and was less consistent with his accuracy. 

 

You have to watch the tape. Scoreboard scouting is useless for most QBs it is even more so for Josh. 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, DuckyBoys said:

receivers probably played their best game today  Still basically zero rushing and the Bills put up 42 pts  Allen and Zay finish off on a high note and hopefully more to come in 2019

Why?  Because no drops?  They caught the balls that hit them in the hands?  They were not anything special.  Ran routes and caught the ball.  Theytre NFL players.

[Socal-805]

 

 

16 % of Zay Jones total yards for the season came today in a meaningless game against a Miami team which basically gave up.

 

 

[DuckyBoys]

6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Why?  Because no drops?  They caught the balls that hit them in the hands?  They were not anything special.  Ran routes and caught the ball.  Theytre NFL players.

Oh I agree I just meant they made plays that nfl receivers are supposed to  Something we didnt see consistently during the year 

[The Wiz]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Why?  Because no drops?  They caught the balls that hit them in the hands?  They were not anything special.  Ran routes and caught the ball.  Theytre NFL players.

Being an NFL player doesn't show up on the stats sheet.  Other than you have a stats sheet because you are an NFL player. 

7 minutes ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

16 % of Zay Jones total yards for the season came today in a meaningless game against a Miami team which basically gave up.

 

 

Tell that to Kyle.  100% of his total yards came today. 

Edited December 30, 2018 by The Wiz

[CincyBillsFan]

After reading some of the comments on this thread I have to wonder if these people watched today's game or any NFL games for that matter.

 

*  Even the best QB's make bad throws.  Allen's INT was a terrible decision but actually a pretty good throw.  That is the ball was chest high for his receiver but a Dolphin was in position to step in front of the pass for the Pick 6.  That's a mental mistake by Allen not a bad throw.  And it's the kind of mistakes even the best QB's make not just rookies.

 

*  Over the course of this game Allen had maybe 4 poor throws with the rest being throw away's.  Hell one of Allen's throw away passes was the ugliest pass of the season as it was quacking all the way into the stands.  But he avoided the sack and the throw away was NEVER in danger of being intercepted.  True the poor quality of that pass did make it hard for a fan to catch it cleanly.

 

*  Allen completed 65% of his passes today - something that the analytics folks claimed could never happen (you can't improve accuracy).  Heck, he even completed 7 in a row!  Most of his short passes were perfectly placed strikes.  He threw the ball well and made big passing plays from the pocket and while on the move.

 

*  His 2nd TD pass was a thing of beauty being one of those perfectly placed short TD throws that folks claim Allen can't make.  And from what I understand Allen made the correct pre-read to spot Foster in single coverage and exploit it.  And the touch on his last TD pass was also perfect.  I don't care how wide open Jones was that was a pretty pass. 

 

*  And I loved the way Allen ran the ball today.  He didn't take any unnecessary risks yet his runs were huge difference makers in the game.  I mean it's getting to the point where on 3rd and 1 or less Allen is unstoppable on the QB sneak.  The type of running we saw today can be maintained over a long NFL career. 

 

*  But the biggest thing we saw today wasn't Allen's excellent stats.  After the pick 6 how many of you thought that Allen might have been mentally knocked off his game?  I did and I figured that the 2nd half would see a disaster of more INT's and sacks as the kid melted down.  But instead we saw a guy come out of the locker room for the 2nd half pissed off at the dumb play he made with the pick 6.  He then almost single handily took his team 80 yards down the field to score TD and allow the Bills to take back the momentum.  It was worth having him throw that awful pick six so we could see how he would respond and IMO he couldn't have responded any better. 

 

*  He has the intangible's and he has all the physical tools.  He needs experience and has to refine his game, both mental & physical.  But IMO I'm convinced he is the guy.  He finished 5 - 5 in the 10 games he started and finished.  His play improved dramatically after he returned from his injury.  Only the sky is the limit to this kids future.

 

*  So I choose to be positive about the future of this team and this QB. 

 

 

 

 

[Doc]

I disagree that he didn't take some unnecessary risks while scrambling.  And I think the pick-six rattled him for the start of the second half. 

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Did you see the ESPN Stats & Info article I posted a few pages back? They came to a similar conclusion wrt his rate of off target throws. Interestingly, the numbers were eerily similar to my 20% theory from charting those three games (though I was including bad decisions as well; It’s unclear whether ESPN did). 

 

I thought he had numerous inaccurate throws in today’s game as well. On the whole he was obviously quite good. I’m excited to see how he progresses in year two.

He missed a few today.  He's missed a few every game.  I'd love to sit with you next season and chart throws together and see how close we agree.  I mentioned above I wonder what the inter and intraobserver variance is in all these analyses.

[CincyBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, Doc said:

I disagree that he didn't take some unnecessary risks while scrambling.  And I think the pick-six rattled him for the start of the second half. 

The Bills took their first possession of the 2nd half 80 yards for a TD with Allen making a couple of great throws and a huge run.  So what did you see to make you think he was rattled at the start of the 2nd half? 

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, VW82 said:

I want to quickly address Hapless's point about how we don't really know on any of these throws whether the receiver ran the route correctly, and so therefore we can't say for sure that these off target throws are actually Allen's fault.

 

I think it's very valid on timing throws where the throw is made before the receiver makes his break; however, shouldn't we still put at least some (if not most) of the blame on the QB for not adjusting once he sees the receiver cut on an 80 degree angle as appose to 70 degrees for example? This isn't a video game where you pick your play and only throw to a spot regardless of what else is happening. IRL things change and we re-calculate on the spot. Food for thought. 

I would say no.  And I base that on living outside Indy and reading about Manning.  Manning practiced a lot with his WRs and demanded precise patterns.   If you were running a 10 yard out it better be 10 and not 11 because he was throwing it to the 10 yard mark.  I think Brady is even more demanding.

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

There's no denying the kid makes plays no other quarterback can make. I've altered that from few because that rope he threw in the second half was insane as well as the long TD run. Just don't see it from anyone else.

 

There's also no denying that he threw several errant passes that you don't see from the top QB's. This is likely to be a sentimental day here at TBD with Kyle retiring and the offense lighting up the scoreboard, but we've got to keep things in perspective. If he can cut down on those errors, he's going to be a franchise QB.

I was watching several games with playoff implications after the Bills game.  Have to say I saw a lot of errant throws from a lot of guys.  

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I would say no.  And I base that on living outside Indy and reading about Manning.  Manning practiced a lot with his WRs and demanded precise patterns.   If you were running a 10 yard out it better be 10 and not 11 because he was throwing it to the 10 yard mark.  I think Brady is even more demanding.

I was watching several games with playoff implications after the Bills game.  Have to say I saw a lot of errant throws from a lot of guys.  

No. Only Allen throws bad passes.  Get it right or don't bother posting.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

No. Only Allen throws bad passes.  Get it right or don't bother posting.

Silly me

[K-9]

17 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Bills took their first possession of the 2nd half 80 yards for a TD with Allen making a couple of great throws and a huge run.  So what did you see to make you think he was rattled at the start of the 2nd half? 

Allen was the opposite of rattled after the pick 6. He looked determined to atone for the mistake and he spent the entire second half doing just that. 

 

The ability to shrug off adversity may be the most important quality in a QB. I remember a Monday night game vs. the Bengals when Kelly threw three, count em, THREE interceptions in the first quarter and then proceeded to throw five TDS the rest of the way. You can’t coach mental toughness and I suspect Allen has it. How would Peterman have responded, I wonder. 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Allen was the opposite of rattled after the pick 6. He looked determined to atone for the mistake and he spent the entire second half doing just that. 

 

The ability to shrug off adversity may be the most important quality in a QB. I remember a Monday night game vs. the Bengals when Kelly threw three, count em, THREE interceptions in the first quarter and then proceeded to throw five TDS the rest of the way. You can’t coach mental toughness and I suspect Allen has it. How would Peterman have responded, I wonder. 

Wow, that Kelly game was the one I thought of to.  Living in Cincinnati we had a big MNF party and it was crammed with Bengal's fans.  Man that 1st quarter was nuts.  Then Kelly & Lofton started to hook up and I got to live the old saying "he who laughs last, laughs best".

 

I wonder how many of the naysayers about Allen understand just how big his 2nd half performance was in light of the pick 6 he threw right before the end of the 1st half?  You're right that you can't coach mental toughness and this kid has it by the boat load.

[DuckyBoys]

Kids got some stones on him.  Gonna be a long off season waiting to see  how they upgrade the talent around him and his jump in year 2.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Bills took their first possession of the 2nd half 80 yards for a TD with Allen making a couple of great throws and a huge run.  So what did you see to make you think he was rattled at the start of the 2nd half? 

 

That was my sense.  He had 3 bad passes on that drive.  But he more than made up for it.

[DuckyBoys]

Anyone notice some of the badly errant throws seem to come right after one of his big runs?  Seemed like he takes a long time to get his wind after some of those gallops. 

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Anyone notice some of the badly errant throws seem to come right after one of his big runs?  Seemed like he takes a long time to get his wind after some of those gallops. 

Actually, on one of those I thought exactly that.  I thought the ball was thrown bad because he was winded after the long run.  I remember watching him huff and puff right after the throw.  

[Dante]

I've come to the conclusion that Allen isn't any more inaccurate than any other QB's out there.  He misses guys for sure but so do other guys. Hell, I think Bree's is probably the most accurate QB's going and I saw him miss a few easy tosses last weekend.  You would think that every other guy out there is completing at an 80% rate.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Dante

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Thanks!  But 4+6 = 10 < 15.  

 

Averages my man, averages.  

 

You said that Allen's TO ratio wasn't even close,  I can go get the quote.  

 

It is relatively close when you factor in the pure luck in recovering 6 of 8 fumbles contrasted with recovering only 3 of 9.  Either way, to paint it as a non-factor like you're trying to do is ridiculous.  

 

Either way, Allen is bottom-dwelling and your argument appears to be that TOs/giveaways don't matter when I've proven to you that this team under McBeane in particular, simply can't win games unless they win the TO margin battle, even then, a positive TO margin the team wins only 65% of its games when they have a neutral or better TO margin.  

 

When they have a neutral or negative TO margin it's nearly assured that they'll lose, having lost 16 of 18 then.  They've won only 1 of 12, less than 10%, when it's negative.  

 

His TD:TO ratio isn't close to Kizer's. Kizer's was nearly 1:2.

 

And if you re-read your last paragraph, you'll notice that you're disproving your own point. If Allen's turnover rate is so poor, and this team doesn't win when they turn the ball over, then why was the team 5-5 in games that Allen started and finished?

 

Call me crazy, but 5-6 as a starter with 18 TDs and 20 turnovers looks a heckuva lot better than 0-15 as a starter with 16 TDs and 31 turnovers, but you do you man.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, DuckyBoys said:

Kids got some stones on him.  Gonna be a long off season waiting to see  how they upgrade the talent around him and his jump in year 2.

Jim Kelly was the most dangerous defender on the field after he threw a pick. After all he was probably the first guy to see it happen.   I remember him breaking a guys leg on a tackle and a close line on another play.  Josh made the hit at the goal line after the int along with taking a violent chop at the ball that almost connected in time.

Edited December 31, 2018 by JESSEFEFFER

[Bockeye]

4 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

16 % of Zay Jones total yards for the season came today in a meaningless game against a Miami team which basically gave up.

 

 

Yes, this is the first game of the entire NFL season where a team “gave up”. We need to take those yards back as we cannot properly compare Zay to all the other WR’s in the NFL. 

 

 

[Ayjent]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

??? But it's worth your time to come here and make a bunch of unsupported assertions, then dis off the audience when you're called to defend them.

Riiiiiiiiight.

What’s the reward of doing that work?  Seriously?!  I spent time responding, that was enough of a waste of time as you alluded to.  An opinion supported by stats is still just an opinion..may be well founded.. may be cherry picked horsesh!t.  I said why I think he’s better and where I’d look if I were going to back up my argument statistically.  So take it how you will.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Ayjent

[billsintaiwan]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

*  But the biggest thing we saw today wasn't Allen's excellent stats.  After the pick 6 how many of you thought that Allen might have been mentally knocked off his game?  I did and I figured that the 2nd half would see a disaster of more INT's and sacks as the kid melted down.  But instead we saw a guy come out of the locker room for the 2nd half pissed off at the dumb play he made with the pick 6.  He then almost single handily took his team 80 yards down the field to score TD and allow the Bills to take back the momentum.  It was worth having him throw that awful pick six so we could see how he would respond and IMO he couldn't have responded any better

This was huge. I thought he looked a bit shocked, but he came back to lead one of the funnest second halfs of Bills football in the last 20 something years.

[VW82]

6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He missed a few today.  He's missed a few every game.  I'd love to sit with you next season and chart throws together and see how close we agree.  I mentioned above I wonder what the inter and intraobserver variance is in all these analyses.

 

We should definitely do that. I agree there's likely inter and intraobserver variance breaking down tape - it's an excellent point. No one's perfect. It's also partly why I quoted you and pointed toward the ESPN analysis and referenced back to my own. The fact we (PFF, ESPN, me) all likely used slightly different methodology but came to such a similar result is interesting. Obv I didn't do the entire year and didn't have access to the same tech they likely did so it's not apples to apples but I think it's at least noteworthy if not highly coincidental.    

[jrober38]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

@jrober38 I had to come back to this after today's game. Allen was arguably less accurate today than usual. He sailed a few passes and his ball placement was off. But he finished with a 65.4% completion and a 114.9 passer rating. Why? Because he made good reads and his receivers caught the ball. Inaccuracy slightly worse but the other issues I listed were much better and it showed on the stat sheet. I think we can live with Allen's inconsistent accuracy as long as his positive traits are on as much as they were today.

 

Allen was very good today. He made a few bad throws, but for the most part was very good. He was decisive and his pass catchers made great plays. 

 

The devil's advocate in me will say that it was in a meaningless game where the Bills played extremely hard because their best player from the last 20 years announced his retirement, and their opposition had nothing to play for in a game where they were decimated by injuries with a coach who will be fired imminently and a QB who is going to be replaced. 

 

With that said, he looked great against the hand he was dealt and the Bills end on a severe high heading into the offseason. Allen still has a ton to work on and the Bills need to improve the pieces around him, but it should be a fun off season to say the least. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 12/31/2018 at 5:35 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Allen was very good today. He made a few bad throws, but for the most part was very good. He was decisive and his pass catchers made great plays. 

 

The devil's advocate in me will say that it was in a meaningless game where the Bills played extremely hard because their best player from the last 20 years announced his retirement, and their opposition had nothing to play for in a game where they were decimated by injuries with a coach who will be fired imminently and a QB who is going to be replaced. 

 

With that said, he looked great against the hand he was dealt and the Bills end on a severe high heading into the offseason. Allen still has a ton to work on and the Bills need to improve the pieces around him, but it should be a fun off season to say the least. 

 

Obviously, we didn't always see eye to eye this season on the assessment of the QB situation.  But, unlike a lot of posters around here, I don't let those disagreements cloud my ability to acknowledge quality posts from said individuals we don't always see eye to eye with either.  This was a good post from the perspective of not yet being completely convinced on Allen.  I am still higher on Allen than you, but these are the kinds of posts that are fair and reasonable if you are in the position of not yet being sure about Allen.  

 

Me personally, I couldn't be more confident in Allens future.  It's not a homer stance either, its from how much growth he has shown several times since this time last year.  This time last year, I had him as a guy I wanted nothing to do with.  But he really won me over with all the improvement in short work he did with Palmer and sky rocketed up my rankings going into the draft as the #2 guy I wanted behind only Mayfield.  Then he shocked everyone and looked more ready to play once he got on the field and narrowly won the job to start week 1 had it not been for a hiccup in 3rd preseason game.  Then to see him go into Minnesota and blow us away in his first road start was another big moment.  Then after some struggles and an injury, comes back better than ever against a tough secondary in Jax and has a very strong stretch to end the season.  Then goes out in final game with his best game yet.

 

Crazy thing is, despite having a poor cast around him, ESPECIALLY when KB was here, he was one dropped pass by Clay and a Special Teams Blunder away from finishing the season 7-3 as a starter in his rookie year instead of 5-5.  Had he finished the Houston game, we had good shot to win that too and he could have been 8-3 as a starter.  

 

So for me, I think his nomination of physical gifts, competitiveness, work ethic, intelligence, and ability to be coached up is all there and he is going to be a high end franchise QB for years to come, and even top 5.  Consider this too he has never had high level coaching until he left college...In High School he never committed to football as he was a multi sport athlete which is why he was really recruited.  He then played at JUCO and Wyoming, not exactly the coaching dream teams there.  

[jrober38]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Obviously, we didn't always see eye to eye this season on the assessment of the QB situation.  But, unlike a lot of posters around here, I don't let those disagreements cloud my ability to acknowledge quality posts from said individuals we don't always see eye to eye with either.  This was a good post from the perspective of not yet being completely convinced on Allen.  I am still higher on Allen than you, but these are the kinds of posts that are fair and reasonable if you are in the position of not yet being sure about Allen.  

 

Me personally, I couldn't be more confident in Allens future.  It's not a homer stance either, its from how much growth he has shown several times since this time last year.  This time last year, I had him as a guy I wanted nothing to do with.  But he really won me over with all the improvement in short work he did with Palmer and sky rocketed up my rankings going into the draft as the #2 guy I wanted behind only Mayfield.  Then he shocked everyone and looked more ready to play once he got on the field and narrowly won the job to start week 1 had it not been for a hiccup in 3rd preseason game.  Then to see him go into Minnesota and blow us away in his first road start was another big moment.  Then after some struggles and an injury, comes back better than ever against a tough secondary in Jax and has a very strong stretch to end the season.  Then goes out in final game with his best game yet.

 

Crazy thing is, despite having a poor cast around him, ESPECIALLY when KB was here, he was one dropped pass by Clay and a Special Teams Blunder away from finishing the season 7-3 as a starter in his rookie year instead of 5-5.  Had he finished the Houston game, we had good shot to win that too and he could have been 8-3 as a starter.  

 

So for me, I think his nomination of physical gifts, competitiveness, work ethic, intelligence, and ability to be coached up is all there and he is going to be a high end franchise QB for years to come, and even top 5.  Consider this too he has never had high level coaching until he left college...In High School he never committed to football as he was a multi sport athlete which is why he was really recruited.  He then played at JUCO and Wyoming, not exactly the coaching dream teams there.  

 

The flashes are there and after year 1 he has a much higher floor than I expected due to his truly elite running ability. There are still lots of issues that popped up on his scouting reports, and he makes a lot of mistakes, but there are enough flashes for me to understand why some people are extremely optimistic. I get where you're coming from and I understand many of the points you make. 

 

My issues are still rooted in the notion that guys with accuracy issues who don't consistently place the ball in spots for their receiver to run after the catch typically aren't successful in becoming elite quarterbacks. He had too many accuracy and ball placement issues on short passes for me to think those will just go away next season. I think he's always going to be a guy who leaves you scratching your head a couple times a game when he misses a wide open running back or a receiver on a crossing route. 

 

A while ago there was an article on how the Bills need to ignore what Allen struggles with and go all in on allowing him to do what he does well.

 

What he does well is simple; running, and throw driven passes down the field to stationary targets or targets running deep. Take crossing routes and soft touch passes out of the playbook.

If you celebrate what he does well, the Bills need to do two things.

 

1. Draft speed receivers. Robert Foster and Isaiah McKenzie sparked the offense. Figure out who is the best deep threat of the top 3-4 receivers in this draft and go get that guy to stretch the field. We don't need a possession receiver who gets open on crossing routes because Allen struggles to complete those passes. 

 

2. Get more athletic on the offensive line. If Allen is going to run around, get some linemen who can also run around a bit, and pick up second blocks when he escapes the pocket. Some bigger holes in the run game would also make our vertical play action pass game much better. 

 

I'm not sure Allen will ever be a top QB, but I think he can probably win some games in the NFL. I think he could wind up being a slightly worse version of Cam Newton who has been both good and bad over the course of his career. 

[Ronin]

On 12/30/2018 at 9:53 PM, thebandit27 said:

 

His TD:TO ratio isn't close to Kizer's. Kizer's was nearly 1:2.

 

And if you re-read your last paragraph, you'll notice that you're disproving your own point. If Allen's turnover rate is so poor, and this team doesn't win when they turn the ball over, then why was the team 5-5 in games that Allen started and finished?

 

Call me crazy, but 5-6 as a starter with 18 TDs and 20 turnovers looks a heckuva lot better than 0-15 as a starter with 16 TDs and 31 turnovers, but you do you man.

 

Well, if you choose to miss my primary points entirely, there's not much that I can do.  As well, if you cannot distinguish between rushing and passing, well, there really isn't any sense in even discussing this.  Right.  

[thebandit27]

20 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Well, if you choose to miss my primary points entirely, there's not much that I can do.  As well, if you cannot distinguish between rushing and passing, well, there really isn't any sense in even discussing this.  Right.  

 

Their rookie TD:INT ratios aren't even in the same neighborhood, and anyone that says otherwise is mathematically illiterate 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;sum=0&amp;player_id1_hint=DeShone+Kizer&amp;player_id1_select=DeShone+Kizer&amp;fromyear_1=2017&amp;toyear_1=2018&amp;player_id1=KizeDe00&amp;idx=players&amp;player_id2_hint=Josh+Allen&amp;player_id2_select=Josh+Allen&amp;fromyear_2=2018&amp;toyear_2=2018&amp;player_id2=AlleJo02&amp;idx=players

 

But you're right that one of us is missing something, so we're definitely done here

22 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

The flashes are there and after year 1 he has a much higher floor than I expected due to his truly elite running ability. There are still lots of issues that popped up on his scouting reports, and he makes a lot of mistakes, but there are enough flashes for me to understand why some people are extremely optimistic. I get where you're coming from and I understand many of the points you make. 

 

My issues are still rooted in the notion that guys with accuracy issues who don't consistently place the ball in spots for their receiver to run after the catch typically aren't successful in becoming elite quarterbacks. He had too many accuracy and ball placement issues on short passes for me to think those will just go away next season. I think he's always going to be a guy who leaves you scratching your head a couple times a game when he misses a wide open running back or a receiver on a crossing route. 

 

A while ago there was an article on how the Bills need to ignore what Allen struggles with and go all in on allowing him to do what he does well.

 

What he does well is simple; running, and throw driven passes down the field to stationary targets or targets running deep. Take crossing routes and soft touch passes out of the playbook.

If you celebrate what he does well, the Bills need to do two things.

 

1. Draft speed receivers. Robert Foster and Isaiah McKenzie sparked the offense. Figure out who is the best deep threat of the top 3-4 receivers in this draft and go get that guy to stretch the field. We don't need a possession receiver who gets open on crossing routes because Allen struggles to complete those passes. 

 

2. Get more athletic on the offensive line. If Allen is going to run around, get some linemen who can also run around a bit, and pick up second blocks when he escapes the pocket. Some bigger holes in the run game would also make our vertical play action pass game much better. 

 

I'm not sure Allen will ever be a top QB, but I think he can probably win some games in the NFL. I think he could wind up being a slightly worse version of Cam Newton who has been both good and bad over the course of his career. 

 

I wouldn't want to see the kind of soft touch pass that sealed the win vs Detroit taken out of the playbook:

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000001000576/Josh-Allen-lofts-perfect-pass-to-Jason-Croom

Edited January 3, 2019 by thebandit27

[Ronin]

On 12/30/2018 at 4:59 PM, Doc said:

 

 

Not ignoring anything.  Again last year the Bills' OL was infinitely better than this year's, and so was the running game.  And again, Tyrod was in his 7th season with over 30 starts whereas Josh is in his first season and had 10 starts under his belt.  What I was referring to was 2015 where he had a good group of offensive talent and couldn't do much with it, and the same goes for his brief stint in Cleveland.

 

 

Considering the quality of your posts, I'm surprised you can spell calculus, much less pass a course in it, much much less teach it to anyone or anything. 

 

You mean like Tyrod?  Or how about Rosen?

 

I'd respond, really, but that's little more than a bunch of opinionated jibberish.  I'll give ya something to chew on anyway.  

 

Say what you want about the OLs, but you provide no data/stats/context, anything.  

 

Check this out;  https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

 

As I've pointed out before, (which you've seen, right?), Allen has the highest Time-to-Throw in the entire league.  That hardly translates to him having less time than all the other QBs.  I'm sure you'll find a way to spin it, but that's not good given his passing stats.  Again, didn't mention anything about his rushing, talking strictly his passing here.  And his status as a future franchise QB will hinge entirely on his future worth as a passer, particularly in the short-medium game where he's simply not good.  

 

But you knew all that before commenting, right?  Feel free to lecture me some more on failures of analysis.  

 

And when you consider that he's taken more time-to-throw than ANY QB in the entire league, yet in passing he's near DFL, I simply cannot buy into the argument that the OL is at fault, particularly with his rushing/evasive ability.  

 

Rosen?  LOL  He was no worse with less time-to-throw with no better an OL or cast otherwise.  In fact, the Cards have pretty much the consensus worst OL in football.  

 

In the Red Zone Rosen threw 7 TDs and 12 1st downs, almost 1 TD every other pass and a 1st-down every third pass.  

In the Red Zone Allen threw 4 TDs and 5 1st downs, one TD every third throw and a 1st down every fifth pass.  

 

Again, those are facts on the season.  Another fact on the season is that Allen was one of the worst QBs in the Red Zone (HINT:  short-medium passing game) in the entire league.  

 

Now, I don't know about you, but I don't think that franchise QBs lead by rushing.  Maybe you do think that, good for you if so, but the reality is that there has not been a single QB in the modern era of football that is or was considered a franchise QB that wasn't because of his short-medium passing game.  

 

And let's keep in mind that this was from an ENORMOUS boost in his season totals, a doubling, from 2 to 4 passing TDs in the Red Zone, in this past game.  Prior to that he was a distant last among the rookies this year in short-medium passing, in particular the Red Zone where he was, quite frankly, really bad.  

 

I'm hopeful, but only marginally so.  This rushing stuff is A, going to get him killed, and B, ain't gonna cut it long-term.  I mean at some point there's no need for a RB.  I don't see that happening, but right now the only way he's "good" is he runs a lot.  Cam Newton without Newton's B-level passing game.  And Newton's not a franchise QB.  

[Ronin]

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Their rookie TD:INT ratios aren't even in the same neighborhood, and anyone that says otherwise is mathematically illiterate 

 

LOL 

 

At least be honest.  There's an element called time, that passes.  This past game essentially doubled many of Allen's stats.  He went from a whopping 2 TDs in the red zone to 4 in this past game.  

 

They were what they were at the time I wrote it.  Nice to see either A, your astuteness in realizing the time-stamp of that post, or B, your sincerity in responding.  

 

Either way, Allen had more Time-to-Throw than ANY QB in the entire league.  Yet, his passing stats are bottom-dwelling, even among the rookies, with his only competition being Rosen, who has all but indisputably the worst OL in the game by consensus and no better "weapons" than Allen had.  

 

You seem to argue with everything I put out.  What's up with that?  

 

I'll say "Blue!"  I'm sure you'll have a retort for that too.  

 

Honestly, give it a rest.  If you truly believe that Allen's playing anything but highly questionable football in the passing game, great, have at it.  Just don't be surprised that if it doesn't improve massively that the team's looking for a new QB in the 2020 Draft.  I'll bet my life that he doesn't become a franchise QB because of his rushing ability.  And if he does, he'll reinvent the game, really.  Odds of that happening over him seeing his career end after two or three seasons of 150 carries/season end abruptly are all but nil.  

 

Why does everyone take issue with simple analysis and opinions as if someone's trying to hack their bank account or something?  

On 12/27/2018 at 11:18 AM, Freddie's Dead said:

Screw PFF, they don't fit my narrative.

 

And doncha know, they design their rating systems to screw Josh Allen.  

 

We actually had several posters imply that.  

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

LOL 

 

At least be honest.  There's an element called time, that passes.  This past game essentially doubled many of Allen's stats.  He went from a whopping 2 TDs in the red zone to 4 in this past game.  

 

They were what they were at the time I wrote it.  Nice to see either A, your astuteness in realizing the time-stamp of that post, or B, your sincerity in responding.  

 

Either way, Allen had more Time-to-Throw than ANY QB in the entire league.  Yet, his passing stats are bottom-dwelling, even among the rookies, with his only competition being Rosen, who has all but indisputably the worst OL in the game by consensus and no better "weapons" than Allen had.  

 

You seem to argue with everything I put out.  What's up with that?  

 

I'll say "Blue!"  I'm sure you'll have a retort for that too.  

 

Honestly, give it a rest.  If you truly believe that Allen's playing anything but highly questionable football in the passing game, great, have at it.  Just don't be surprised that if it doesn't improve massively that the team's looking for a new QB in the 2020 Draft.  I'll bet my life that he doesn't become a franchise QB because of his rushing ability.  And if he does, he'll reinvent the game, really.  Odds of that happening over him seeing his career end after two or three seasons of 150 carries/season end abruptly are all but nil.  

 

Why does everyone take issue with simple analysis and opinions as if someone's trying to hack their bank account or something?  

 

Ah, so we should ignore his last game because it doesn't support your opinion? Let's ignore Kizer's last game too--does that help or hurt your comparison? and you're audacious enough to call MY honesty into question?

 

Yeah. Ok.

Edited January 3, 2019 by thebandit27

[Ronin]

39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Ah, so we should ignore his last game because it doesn't support your opinion? Let's ignore Kizer's last game too--does that help or hurt your comparison? and you're audacious enough to call MY honesty into question?

 

Yeah. Ok.

 

Valid point.  

 

I'll take my analysis over your opinionated nonsense that renders his steady-state performance essentially all but entirely contingent upon a single game.  

 

So by your take we can expect Allen next season to have 48 TDs, 16 INTs, a rating of 115, better than a 65% compl. %, but only 3,500 yards passing, and challenge for leading the league across the board for QBs. 

 

Noted.  

 

Oh, and he'll have about 150 carries for over 1,500 rushing yards.  

Phew, I nearly forgot.  

 

I see your point.  A much more optimistic "analysis."  

 

Nothin' gets past you I can see.  

Edited January 3, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

Check this out;  https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

 

As I've pointed out before, (which you've seen, right?), Allen has the highest Time-to-Throw in the entire league.  That hardly translates to him having less time than all the other QBs.  I'm sure you'll find a way to spin it, but that's not good given his passing stats.  Again, didn't mention anything about his rushing, talking strictly his passing here.  And his status as a future franchise QB will hinge entirely on his future worth as a passer, particularly in the short-medium game where he's simply not good.  

 

But you knew all that before commenting, right?  Feel free to lecture me some more on failures of analysis.  

 

And when you consider that he's taken more time-to-throw than ANY QB in the entire league, yet in passing he's near DFL, I simply cannot buy into the argument that the OL is at fault, particularly with his rushing/evasive ability.

 

Is this a private party or can I join?

 

Well, Allen has some typical faults of rookie QBs.  He doesn't use his pre-snap reads to hone in on the likeliest plays, and thus takes too long to go through progressions at times.

He locks on sometimes.  He fails to see open guys.

 

But as for the overall highest Time-to-Throw meaning the OL is not at fault...I don't see how one can assert that, especially given the evasive ability you recognize.

Allen may feel pressure, bail out, and buy himself time to throw with his feet.  In that scenario, it is perfectly plausible that the OL is at fault AND Allen's evasive ability buys him time, giving him the longest time to throw.

 

 

 

[thebandit27]

15 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Valid point.  

 

I'll take my analysis over your opinionated nonsense that renders his steady-state performance essentially all but entirely contingent upon a single game.  

 

So by your take we can expect Allen next season to have 48 TDs, 16 INTs, a rating of 115, better than a 65% compl. %, but only 3,500 yards passing, and challenge for leading the league across the board for QBs. 

 

Noted.  

 

Oh, and he'll have about 150 carries for over 1,500 rushing yards.  

Phew, I nearly forgot.  

 

I see your point.  A much more optimistic "analysis."  

 

Nothin' gets past you I can see.  

 

Nice massive misrepresentation of my point.

 

Are you capable of intellectual honesty at all?

 

If so, then please point to where I said anything even remotely close to what you're attributing to me above. Otherwise stop lying and admit that your Kizer-Allen point was silly from the beginning and had no basis in fact.

 

Or don't. I highly doubt I'm going to take you seriously either way, because as much as you may want to tout your "analysis" as being valid, it's basically an onslaught of verbal diarrhea that culminates in a conclusion that's a total non sequitur.

 

Now, for the good of the thread, I'll stop responding to you

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Is this a private party or can I join?

 

Well, Allen has some typical faults of rookie QBs.  He doesn't use his pre-snap reads to hone in on the likeliest plays, and thus takes too long to go through progressions at times.

He locks on sometimes.  He fails to see open guys.

 

But as for the overall highest Time-to-Throw meaning the OL is not at fault...I don't see how one can assert that, especially given the evasive ability you recognize.

Allen may feel pressure, bail out, and buy himself time to throw with his feet.  In that scenario, it is perfectly plausible that the OL is at fault AND Allen's evasive ability buys him time, giving him the longest time to throw.

 

 

 

 

Its also worth pointing out when discussing playing under duress that Allen faced pressure on ~39% of his drop backs per NFL Matchup. 2nd highest in the league 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by thebandit27