Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think. The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road. None of these are impossible. The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible. If those scenarios play out then.... The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2. The Bills would be the AFC East Champions. Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game. The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win. Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think. Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg 5 12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Shirley 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think. The Patriots lose to the Vikings at Home, the Steelers on the Road and the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible. The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible. If those scenarios play out then.... The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The Patriots would be 4-2. The Bills would win the AFC East and host a home playoff game. The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win. That matchup with the Patriots in New England on Christmas eve with the division on the line would make things interesting. Getty’s, it is not impossible for each of those things to happen, but everyone of those has to happen for it to be possible. Whic, I think, is virtually impossible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Four score and seven years ago... Forget it! Welcome to the List! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said: Getty’s, it is not impossible for each of those things to happen, but everyone of those has to happen for it to be possible. Whic, I think, is virtually impossible. These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year. They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible. Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThurmasThoman Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Stranger things have happened. I saw an entire Red Sox fanbase give up on their team when they were down 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS in 04. They ended up experiencing the best season of their baseball-viewing lives, watching their team win 8 games in a row en route to a championship and ending the greatest curse in pro sports, starting a run of relevance/greatness that continues a decade and a half later. Im not saying the Bills will do this, or even could do this, but looking at those scenarios, it's not impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, JohnnyGold said: Stranger things have happened. I saw an entire Red Sox fanbase give up on their team when they were down 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS in 04. They ended up experiencing the best season of their baseball-viewing lives, watching their team win 8 games in a row en route to a championship and ending the greatest curse in pro sports, starting a run of relevance/greatness that continues a decade and a half later. Im not saying the Bills will do this, or even could do this, but looking at those scenarios, it's not impossible. You make great points and because the Bills defense is playing so well and because the offense may have some life in it now due to adding some speed to the field, I don't see the Bills winning the next 4 as that impossible. In fact if they beat the Dolphins on the road they should be able to take care of the Jaguars, Jets, and Lions, who may have packed the season in by the time they get to Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year. They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible. How did you come up with the 10% number? If I were to hazard a guess at the possibility of this happening, I would say less than 1%. Sorry, the Bills are not going to the playoffs this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epstein's Mother Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think. The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then the Steelers on the Road, and then the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible. The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible. If those scenarios play out then.... The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The Patriots would be 4-2. The Bills would win the AFC East and host a home playoff game. The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win. Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think. Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win The Apgar test tells me this baby is about 3 weeks premature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 minute ago, TroutDog said: How did you come up with the 10% number? If I were to hazard a guess at the possibility of this happening, I would say less than 1%. Sorry, the Bills are not going to the playoffs this year. I see a very high probability of the Bills beating the Jaguars, Jets, and Lions at home. With a good chance of beating the Dolphins on the road. I see a very high probability of the Patriots beating the Jets and losing to the Steelers. Then a good chance of them losing to the VIkings at home and Dolphins on the road. I see a 1 in 5 chance of the scenarios playing out. I then see a 50-50 chance of the Bills on a 5 game winning streak going on the road and beating the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Absinthe???? It must be Absinthe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Because Barkley's history of NFL play (started or played a significant amount of time in 10 games, won 2 of them, and turned the ball over 2 or more times in 7 of them) tells us he is the QB to lead this team on a 7 game winning streak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) If we were going to shelf Allen I would say, individualy on a case by case basis..we probably could win each of our last games. I would find it hard to believe we win 7 in a row regardless of opponent. But each week I’d say we have a shot. If Barkley was playing I would say it’s not impossible. With Allen playing, we will get embarrassed by the Jaguars at home. Also I don’t think 9-7 would get us in anyway. Edited November 18, 2018 by Brianmoorman4jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I don't know about the playoffs..but if Allen can be even slightly improved, I do think the Bills can beat the 6 1/2 win total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 we could run the table but I don't see the Pats dropping that many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Looney tunes thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaoulDuke79 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 And all that needs to happen for me to win the lottery is to pick the correct 6 numbers. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, bigK14094 said: Looney tunes thread. What is so looney? You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions? You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road? You can't see the Bills going to New England on a 5 game winning streak and beating a reeling Patriots? Improbable. Yes. But certainly not "looney" as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanmiami(oh) Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Drugs are bad mmmmmkay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsredneck1 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 43 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think. The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then the Steelers on the Road, and then the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible. The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible. If those scenarios play out then.... The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2. The Bills would be the AFC East Champions. Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game. The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win. Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think. Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win i've pointed this out a few times in other threads. this is why it would be derelict not to start barkley. if they start allen against the jags, they will stop shady and get after josh nonstop. we will most likely just go back to where we were 2 weeks ago. the season will officially be over and other than watching josh finish it out, it would be a huge kick in the nuts to the team and the fan base. barkley gives them the best chance for a win and it ain't even debatable. sending josh out there to take a beating and have the season lost at home is not the recipe for his.... "development". it could end up being quite the opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPP Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 So lets see the only likely probability to get into the playoffs is to win the afce as 9-7 will most certainly not earn us a wildcard spot in the afc this season......so therefore we must run the table and new england pretty much has to lose on out from this point forward.......alrighty than...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central PA Bills Fan Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 So you are saying that there is a chance! That's all we can still ask for at this point. There are currently 10 other teams with the same amount of wins as us or less. Receiving one of the top draft picks seems about as probable as making the playoffs. So let's try to stay positive and hopefully we get on a role and our QB starts to show us what we want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said: i've pointed this out a few times in other threads. this is why it would be derelict not to start barkley. if they start allen against the jags, they will stop shady and get after josh nonstop. we will most likely just go back to where we were 2 weeks ago. the season will officially be over and other than watching josh finish it out, it would be a huge kick in the nuts to the team and the fan base. barkley gives them the best chance for a win and it ain't even debatable. sending josh out there to take a beating and have the season lost at home is not the recipe for his.... "development". it could end up being quite the opposite. You are absolutely correct. The rule in the NFL is you start the quarterback who gives you the best chance to win until you are out of playoff contention. Matt Barkley right now gives the Bills a much better shot of winning than a rookie coming off an injury who has not played in a game in a month. Once the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs do whatever you want. They should have learned last year that you play to win until you are eliminated. Strange this can happen in the NFL. 7 minutes ago, JPP said: So lets see the only likely probability to get into the playoffs is to win the afce as 9-7 will most certainly not earn us a wildcard spot in the afc this season......so therefore we must run the table and new england pretty much has to lose on out from this point forward.......alrighty than...... New England doesn't have to lose out. They just need to lose to the Steelers, Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and that sets up the AFC East Title game in week 16 against the Bills. Nobody is saying they are going to lose to the Jets. Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GottaRun Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row? I don't think that's happened since 2002. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticaclub Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I've thought about this too. You have got to start Allen regardless. If Allen is the QB to win those games, that would be the best thing for his confidence and development. If Allen shows that the NFL is just too fast for him and that he can't complete average NFL throws, then finding another QB becomes a higher priority in the off season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsredneck1 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, driddles said: Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row? I don't think that's happened since 2002. but what if?... what if we send allen out there against the jags and it's a miserable offensive output...josh gets the snot knocked out of him...the season is over.... and the pats actually lose 3 in a row? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: You are absolutely correct. The rule in the NFL is you start the quarterback who gives you the best chance to win until you are out of playoff contention. Matt Barkley right now gives the Bills a much better shot of winning than a rookie coming off an injury who has not played in a game in a month. Once the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs do whatever you want. They should have learned last year that you play to win until you are eliminated. Strange this can happen in the NFL. New England doesn't have to lose out. They just need to lose to the Steelers, Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and that sets up the AFC East Title game in week 16 against the Bills. Nobody is saying they are going to lose to the Jets. Lol. I love the enthusiasm, but you have the pats losing 4 of their final 6 games. It’s hard even for bad teams - really bad teams - to lose 4 of 6 games. And you expect the Pats to do it? At the same time you have the Bills winning out. If what you propose was a parlay bet it would probably pay out $1,000,000 just by placing a $10 bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, driddles said: Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row? I don't think that's happened since 2002. The Pats are not very good. I don't see them beating the Vikings. If they fall to the Dolphins on the road, I can easily see them getting blown out at Pittsburgh. The Dolphin game is only game I am worried about but they looked so bad on the road last week anything is possible. The Dolphins also aren't going to fold. They are in the hunt for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Gettysburg said: These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year. They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible. It's funny that you would say that there's a 10 percent chance because there's actually a 0.1% chance. See for yourself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snafu Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, fridge said: It's funny that you would say that there's a 10 percent chance because there's actually a 0.1% chance. See for yourself. The playoff SIMulator says 0.1% The OP's playoff STIMulator says 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 38 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: What is so looney? You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions? You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road? You can't see the Bills going to New England on a 5 game winning streak and beating a reeling Patriots? Improbable. Yes. But certainly not "looney" as you say. To get to your math, you have to think each game has over 80% odds of happening how you predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Gettysburg said: Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think. The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then the Steelers on the Road, and then the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible. The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible. If those scenarios play out then.... The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2. The Bills would be the AFC East Champions. Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game. The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win. Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think. Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win Highly unlikely but like you said , not that unrealistic. I think the defense closes out the year ferociously if we can get a consistent offense going and stranger things have happened in this league. Good post! Stay optimistic my friend and let's gooooooooo Buffffffalllooooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakin Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, TroutDog said: How did you come up with the 10% number? If I were to hazard a guess at the possibility of this happening, I would say less than 1%. Sorry, the Bills are not going to the playoffs this year. You are probably right but you also probably said the same thing last year. Right up until week 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bakin said: You are probably right but you also probably said the same thing last year. Right up until week 17. Oh, because something unlikely happened last year it means there’s probably a good chance of repeating this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Greek Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) Winning 4 in a row would be difficult. But I love the positive attitude. Go Bills! Edited November 18, 2018 by Idandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
die hard bills fan Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Not gonna happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, fridge said: It's funny that you would say that there's a 10 percent chance because there's actually a 0.1% chance. See for yourself. The computer right now says the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the division. I am saying it is 10%. Their algorithm is using past games where Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman were quarterbacks to predict future outcomes. I am not. That is the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Somebody notify Greenspan. There's another case of 'irrational exuberance' going around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crowing Rooster Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 PPFFFFFTTTTT!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts