Players that need replaced in 2019 for the Bills to succeed?

[PIZ]

WR – Benjamin.  Terrible.

LG – Ducasse?  Seems more like a backup G to me.

C – Bodine?  Seems more like a backup center to me.

RB – McCoy.  I don’t expect him to be on the team in 2019.

RG – John Miller.  Need to get better here.

RT – Mills.  Need to get better here.

WR – Holmes.  Only OK at special teams.  Not a starter at WR.

 

(edit) QB - Peterman.  Anderson.  Not sure how I forgot this, but yes, probably both will not be on the roster next season.  We need a quality vet backup for Allen, and I would like to see another young guy that has some talent, to replace Peterman.

 

LB – Alexander.  Still a good player, but he is getting long in the tooth.

DT – Kyle Williams.  Retirement.

DE – Murphy.  Guy can’t stay healthy.

DE – Hughes.  Still a top player, but will he be traded?

CB – Gaines.  Need to get better here.

 

That is a ton of players.  Can the Bills fill these spots via FA and the draft?  Is it realistic to think the Bills can fill these spots with starters that will improve the team?  I think it is possible with the cap money ($91m) and draft picks (10 – below).

 

2019 draft picks:

 

Round 1: original pick.

Round 2: original pick.

Round 3: original pick.

Round 4: original pick.

Round 4:  additional selection acquired from the Kansas City Chiefs as part of Reggie Ragland trade.

Round 5: original pick.

Round 5:  additional selection acquired from the Oakland Raiders as part of AJ McCarron trade.

Round 6: original pick.

Round 7: original pick.

Round 7:  additional selection acquired from the Carolina Panthers as part of Kevon Seymour trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2018 by PIZ

[Elite Poster]

I love how people bring up the "we have 10 picks" BS, and they are all late round picks. This regime just drafted and cut a guy drafted in the 6th this year. Lol.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

I love how people bring up the "we have 10 picks" BS, and they are all late round picks. This regime just drafted and cut a guy drafted in the 6th this year. Lol.

I don’t expect them to use all 10 picks. I expect them to use those picks to move up for specific guys that they have been trying to get. As an example, the Bills trade their 4th and a 5th to move back up to the end of day 2 if there is a player that they love. I expect them to pull 4 to 5 starters from the draft and hopefully some improved depth.

[CEN-CAL17]

Unbelievable..,,

 

why do people think Holmes is so great at STs?!  The dude makes zero plays at WR and STs. He can go!

[jahnyc]

Considering the current talent level, I think a quick turn around for next year is unlikely.  We also will have new holes next season if KW, KB and McCoy do not return.  We do not have enough picks in the early rounds to expect a bunch of instant starters from next year's draft, and a number of teams have significant cap space for free agent acquisitions, so it will be competitive getting quality free agents to sign with the Bills.

 

I think this rebuild is going to take time, both in terms of upgrading the roster and the development of Allen.  As noted above, there is a lot of work that is needed to improve this team.

 

 

[bmur66]

If they hit on half of their draft pics they are doing good. Need focus on building a dominant O-line as no. 1 priority. Need a fresh , young RB too. I wouldn't expect to go all in on receiver's at this point. Probably free agengy

[Dave Allen]

6 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Considering the current talent level, I think a quick turn around for next year is unlikely.  We also will have new holes next season if KW, KB and McCoy do not return.  We do not have enough picks in the early rounds to expect a bunch of instant starters from next year's draft, and a number of teams have significant cap space for free agent acquisitions, so it will be competitive getting quality free agents to sign with the Bills.

 

I think this rebuild is going to take time, both in terms of upgrading the roster and the development of Allen.  As noted above, there is a lot of work that is needed to improve this team.

 

 

I agree. It's a long-term project; they can't fill all their holes in one offseason. If they can find a true #1 WR and solidly upgrade two OL spots, the offense should be significantly better next year.   

[BigBuff423]

I think the roster overhaul will continue to be really significant this year. The Draft is deep on DL and DE / Edge which to me makes sense as to where you go with your 1st round pick depending on value and BPA. I hope the Bills spend most of their FA money on Offense. They need experience and immediate contributors on Offense to help Allen out and get this Offense to match the Defense in terms of production and playing ability. If and that's a huge IF - the Bills can get a really high quality C / RG and WR1 and WR3, and OLB starter along with really necessary depth at all the positions listed by OP, then the Bills can use the Draft as BPA because they need talent in every position group, with LB right now looking the best. Also, a true Vet QB needs to be a priority, but I don't think they can break the bank so a guy like Siemian would be a viable back-up, plus the Bills need to Draft one with one of their late round picks to continue to develop to be the long-term back-up solution, much like Reich was to Kelly. 

 

That said, just getting a FA WR1 will prove to be nearly impossible due to how infrequently they actually make it to market and truthfully, I don't know if the Bills philosophy is spend big on a FA WR anyways. There are some good second tier WRs if they make it out into FA, here's a link:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/

 

That said, the Bills have a tall task for 2019, but they have the money and the Draft picks. Also, I'm fine with the Bills trading a 3rd or something along those lines or even into the 2nd if it's for a really good WR on a team that is about to bottom-out, the problem is, I don't know that such a player exists. I liked the Cooper idea because he's only 24 and he's shown he play at a high level in the NFL, despite some struggles, he still has just so much potential with a history of putting up some good numbers. 

[row_33]

you have stars and "those who belong out there" and scrubs on a given roster

 

every time you remove the first two you have to summon up another just to get back to ground zero

 

don't underestimate the power of the vast majority who belong out there

 

 

 

[BigBuff423]

14 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Considering the current talent level, I think a quick turn around for next year is unlikely.  We also will have new holes next season if KW, KB and McCoy do not return.  We do not have enough picks in the early rounds to expect a bunch of instant starters from next year's draft, and a number of teams have significant cap space for free agent acquisitions, so it will be competitive getting quality free agents to sign with the Bills.

 

I think this rebuild is going to take time, both in terms of upgrading the roster and the development of Allen.  As noted above, there is a lot of work that is needed to improve this team.

 

 

 

To the bolded portion, teams find good to great talent all over the Draft and they don't need to be 1st or 2nd round guys to be good. The NFL is littered with good to great talent found in all rounds of the Draft and just in the last two years the Bills drafted Milano and T. Johnson in the 5th and 4th rounds respectively and so far, all signs point to them both being really good players - way too early to make a determination, but indications are positive. 

 

Additionally, Wyatt Teller, showed really well in the Pre-Season and I'm guessing they kept Ducasse b/c he did perform fairly well and the Vet presence on the left side was intended to help their Rookie QB, but don't forget about him either - a 5th round pick. 

 

Kyle Williams a 5th round pick also. Point is, it doesn't need to be a high draft pick to get a really good player - I could go through a quick list of really great players in the mid to late rounds all over the NFL, but as for the Bills, first two years: so far, so good. 

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, row_33 said:

you have stars and "those who belong out there" and scrubs on a given roster

 

every time you remove the first two you have to summon up another just to get back to ground zero

 

don't underestimate the power of the vast majority who belong out there

 

 

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

43 minutes ago, PIZ said:

WR – Benjamin.  Terrible.

LG – Ducasse?  Seems more like a backup G to me.

C – Bodine?  Seems more like a backup center to me.

RB – McCoy.  I don’t expect him to be on the team in 2019.

RG – John Miller.  Need to get better here.

RT – Mills.  Need to get better here.

WR – Holmes.  Only OK at special teams.  Not a starter at WR.

 

LB – Alexander.  Still a good player, but he is getting long in the tooth.

DT – Kyle Williams.  Retirement.

DE – Murphy.  Guy can’t stay healthy.

DE – Hughes.  Still a top player, but will he be traded?

CB – Gaines.  Need to get better here.

 

That is a ton of players.  Can the Bills fill these spots via FA and the draft?  Is it realistic to think the Bills can fill these spots with starters that will improve the team?  I think it is possible with the cap money ($91m) and draft picks (10 – below).

 

2019 draft picks:

 

Round 1: original pick.

Round 2: original pick.

Round 3: original pick.

Round 4: original pick.

Round 4:  additional selection acquired from the Kansas City Chiefs as part of Reggie Ragland trade.

Round 5: original pick.

Round 5:  additional selection acquired from the Oakland Raiders as part of AJ McCarron trade.

Round 6: original pick.

Round 7: original pick.

Round 7:  additional selection acquired from the Carolina Panthers as part of Kevon Seymour trade.

 

 

 

All of those O-Lineman are horrible but even bad players show some signs of getting better. Castillo needs to be fired at the end of the year or my faith in any process working is out the window. Castillo will never be signed as a O-Line coach ever again and I would be surprised if this isn't his last stop. 

[jahnyc]

The current reality in the NFL seems to be that a lot of teams are in need of a #1 WR and upgrades on the o-line.  Look at the steep price paid for Cooper by the Cowboys, and I am not sure whether Cooper is a true #1.  Other teams were after him as well, including the Eagles.

 

I doubt there will be a #1 WR available in free agency next year.  This likely will need to be filled in the draft, and WRs can take time to develop, assuming that they do develop into quality players.  

[Mark92]

Tom Brady was a 6th.  A pick is a pick.  Yes 1-4 round picks tend to be better but you never know.

[buffalobillswin]

QB?

[Mark92]

I don't think they draft a QB.  Probably bring in a a FA or 2.  

[billsherd]

By the time offense gets fixed, watch for defense to suck. 

[thebandit27]

37 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

I love how people bring up the "we have 10 picks" BS, and they are all late round picks. This regime just drafted and cut a guy drafted in the 6th this year. Lol.

 

Beane loves to trade; there's a very good chance that they'll only end up picking between 5 and 7 players.

 

33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t expect them to use all 10 picks. I expect them to use those picks to move up for specific guys that they have been trying to get. As an example, the Bills trade their 4th and a 5th to move back up to the end of day 2 if there is a player that they love. I expect them to pull 4 to 5 starters from the draft and hopefully some improved depth.

 

That, and I think they understand that the offensive is in a state of emergency.  They absolutely need to find out what they've got in Allen in 2019, and that means adding veteran WRs in addition to any rookies they draft.  I fully expect them to deal a mid-round pick for a WR, and maybe do the same at OL.

 

As to the OP, mostly on the money.  I look at it in terms of needs, which are (IMO) as follows:

 

Backup QB - I'd sign Fitzy in a heartbeat

Starting RB - I'm assuming Shady won't be here, and I'd like to see a 3rd/4th round back get into the mix with Murphy and Ivory

3 WRs - Trade for a veteran (like D. Thomas), sign a speed WR, and draft a speed WR

2 starting OGs - let Miller walk, cut Vlad, go with Teller as a competition guy, and sign 2 veterans (I'd go with Quinton Spain and Ramon Foster)

1 starting OT - pick your favorite of Daryl Williams, Ja'Wuan James, Ty Nsekhe, and Jared Veldheer

1-2 pass rushers - by virtue of need, they probably will be forced to hang onto 2 of Hughes/Shaq/Murphy; I'm happy to spend a first round pick on their favorite of this draft's crop of pass rushers

1-2 LBs - I'd definitely re-sign Alexander; he's been good in this D, is versatile, and is a good locker room guy, but the depth is scary, especially if Humber is let go

1 CB - the veteran market is always stocked with corners that can play

[Heavy Kevi]

I don't expect them to have it all buttoned-up next season.

 

I expect something to the effect of:

-Making a trade for a relatively highly paid proven vet. Probably not elite, but a definite proven quantity at starter

-Hand out 1 or 2 semi-large contracts in FA, hopefully proven quantities as well

-Draft whoever we can given the remaining holes

-Stay near the cap floor (or at least nowhere near the cap limit), and carry that extra money into 2020 to fill out the team with another round of FA and another draft (plus you know Beane will be active with the trades).

Edited October 25, 2018 by Shotgunner

[LABILLBACKER]

51 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

I love how people bring up the "we have 10 picks" BS, and they are all late round picks. This regime just drafted and cut a guy drafted in the 6th this year. Lol.

Just draft 10 wrs and spend 90 M on the oline.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

You forgot QB2 or maybe QB #1 Allen is not a sure thing at this point. Add WR#1, WR#2. Zay is a #3.  No one else should be on the roster. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

QB is the overarching need of this franchise. But assuming the team will not draft serious QB in 2019, then I think its reasonable to expect that we need the following on offense:

 

WR, WR, TE, RG, RT, RB.

 

On defense: DE, OLB, CB. 

 

 

[Cash]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t expect them to use all 10 picks. I expect them to use those picks to move up for specific guys that they have been trying to get. As an example, the Bills trade their 4th and a 5th to move back up to the end of day 2 if there is a player that they love. I expect them to pull 4 to 5 starters from the draft and hopefully some improved depth.

 

That's asking a lot, especially if they're only going to use 8 or so picks. It's fairly reasonable to expect the first rounder to be a starter*, and probably one out of the 2nd/3rd rounders. After that, I think you'd be lucky (or good!) if more than 2/7 of the late round picks hit. I think a more realistic expectation is 3 starters and 2-3 quality depth players. 

 

*I mean quality starter, not someone who is starting only because there's no better option. It's early yet, but so far the only confirmed quality starters drafter under McD are:

Tre White (1st)

Dion Dawkins (2nd)

Matt Milano (5th)

Tremaine Edmunds (1st, debatable if he's quality yet but I say he barely makes the cutoff)

Taron Johnson (4th - nickel corner is a starter IMO. Only worry here is durability)

 

Put it another way: in 2017, the Bills went 1/3 on day three picks. In 2018, they went 1/5. If they keep all 7 in 2019, we can probably expect either 1 or 2 hits. If they trade a few, probably just 1, plus whoever they trade up for. Zay Jones would like to remind you that just because you trade up for him doesn't mean he'll be great. 

[golfball323]

39 minutes ago, Shotgunner said:

I don't expect them to have it all buttoned-up next season.

 

I expect something to the effect of:

-Making a trade for a relatively highly paid proven vet. Probably not elite, but a definite proven quantity at starter

-Hand out 1 or 2 semi-large contracts in FA, hopefully proven quantities as well

-Draft whoever we can given the remaining holes

-Stay near the cap floor (or at least nowhere near the cap limit), and carry that extra money into 2020 to fill out the team with another round of FA and another draft (plus you know Beane will be active with the trades).

 

Correct. This was a two year tear down with a two year rebuild. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Cash said:

 

That's asking a lot, especially if they're only going to use 8 or so picks. It's fairly reasonable to expect the first rounder to be a starter*, and probably one out of the 2nd/3rd rounders. After that, I think you'd be lucky (or good!) if more than 2/7 of the late round picks hit. I think a more realistic expectation is 3 starters and 2-3 quality depth players. 

 

*I mean quality starter, not someone who is starting only because there's no better option. It's early yet, but so far the only confirmed quality starters drafter under McD are:

Tre White (1st)

Dion Dawkins (2nd)

Matt Milano (5th)

Tremaine Edmunds (1st, debatable if he's quality yet but I say he barely makes the cutoff)

Taron Johnson (4th - nickel corner is a starter IMO. Only worry here is durability)

 

Put it another way: in 2017, the Bills went 1/3 on day three picks. In 2018, they went 1/5. If they keep all 7 in 2019, we can probably expect either 1 or 2 hits. If they trade a few, probably just 1, plus whoever they trade up for. Zay Jones would like to remind you that just because you trade up for him doesn't mean he'll be great. 

I guess that I look at this team as one with a lot of holes. I think that they could need up to 9 starters on offense and a couple on defense. If they end up picking 4 times in the first 100 picks I don’t think 4 starters is unreasonable with this roster. They should have 3 top 70 picks already. You really only need to hit on one Johnson or Milano and you are at that number. As Bandit mentioned, you may see some picks swapped for players as well. 

[Heavy Kevi]

1 minute ago, golfball323 said:

 

Correct. This was a two year tear down with a two year rebuild. 

 

Yeah, I think alot of people are operating on the assumption that McBeane's collective seats are getting hot and need to put something together fast. I reject this thinking for 2 reasons:

 

1. Playoffs. We made it last year and I believe it bought McD AT LEAST 3 more years

2. Pegulas. They were patient on a long, drawn-out rebuild with the Sabres and it is showing signs that it may have worked. Now I believe they are more prone to 'let it play out' with McBeane and no longer want to mortgage the future for instant gratification (that doesn't work anyway).

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Unbelievable..,,

 

why do people think Holmes is so great at STs?!  The dude makes zero plays at WR and STs. He can go!

....and brandon reilly worked his tail off to become good on st.  and should have taken one of those wr spots.  rayray on the 53?  seriously?

[uticaclub]

This is the danger in tanking and full rebuilds, you left yourself too many to holes to fill in or two off seasons & then once you have hole fixed another pops up. OP also didn’t mention backup QB, there’s a better than average chance Allen flops and we some backup plan there

Edited October 25, 2018 by uticaclub

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

....and brandon reilly worked his tail off to become good on st.  and should have taken one of those wr spots.  rayray on the 53?  seriously?

Would it be much different though? Reilly is still sitting at home. He isn’t worth being outraged over.  He looked like he belonged on the roster but is no more than a back of the roster talent. I’m much more outraged that they thought NP could play. 

[Bring it]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Just draft 10 wrs and spend 90 M on the oline.

Normally I would laugh at this but if you make it 9 wrs and a tight end I’m on board!

[BuffaloBillies]

It would be painful to watch 1st round talent go off the board, but considering all the needs, I would be in favor of trading down twice, picking up multiple 2nd/3rd/4th round picks. And then maybe package our mid-to-lower round picks to move up some too. In the end, trying to convert those 10 picks across all rounds, into 6-7 picks in rounds 2-4. Players who are more likely to be able to come in and start day 1 next year.

[thebandit27]

Just now, BuffaloBillies said:

It would be painful to watch 1st round talent go off the board, but considering all the needs, I would be in favor of trading down twice, picking up multiple 2nd/3rd/4th round picks. And then maybe package our mid-to-lower round picks to move up some too. In the end, trying to convert those 10 picks across all rounds, into 6-7 picks in rounds 2-4. Players who are more likely to be able to come in and start day 1 next year.

 

I think that would be a poor decision.  Use FA to fill needs; drafting to fill needs tends to leave talent on the board.

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think that would be a poor decision.  Use FA to fill needs; drafting to fill needs tends to leave talent on the board.

Agree in principle but in 2019, almost every position of the Bills will be a genuine need.

 

I wouldn't mind trading a top 5 pick if we get one, but I want the right price.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think that would be a poor decision.  Use FA to fill needs; drafting to fill needs tends to leave talent on the board.

I never have agreed with this. 

 

Fill the holes on your team. 

 

The Bills are not good enough to grab another MLB in the 1st Round just because they rate him a 92 and the best WR available a 90. 

 

This team is depleted at almost every position. 

[GunnerBill]

Answer.....

 

On defense:

- Philip Gaines and every other corner not name Tre White or Taron Johnson on the roster.

- Rafael Bush. Bills and Bush just don't go together.

- Trent Murphy. Always hobbled and insufficient production for the price.

 

On offense:

- Everyone except Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins and LeSean McCoy

 

12 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

It would be painful to watch 1st round talent go off the board, but considering all the needs, I would be in favor of trading down twice, picking up multiple 2nd/3rd/4th round picks. And then maybe package our mid-to-lower round picks to move up some too. In the end, trying to convert those 10 picks across all rounds, into 6-7 picks in rounds 2-4. Players who are more likely to be able to come in and start day 1 next year.

 

The draft is not for filling needs for the season that follows. If that is your approach you are doing the draft wrong.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I never have agreed with this. 

 

Fill the holes on your team. 

 

The Bills are not good enough to grab another MLB in the 1st Round just because they rate him a 92 and the best WR available a 90. 

 

This team is depleted at almost every position. 

 

That's exactly what teams that draft well do.

 

The only exception is QB, because if you don't have one, you should be drafting any QB that could potentially become a franchise guy.

 

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The draft is not for filling needs for the season that follows. If that is your approach you are doing the draft wrong.

 

Exactly.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I never have agreed with this. 

 

Fill the holes on your team. 

 

The Bills are not good enough to grab another MLB in the 1st Round just because they rate him a 92 and the best WR available a 90. 

 

This team is depleted at almost every position. 

You kind of contradict yourself here. You say that “they basically need everyone but draft for need.” Good teams never draft for need. That’s what FA is for. The draft is for enhancing your talent level. 

[Soda Popinski]

if we trot out 10 rookies next year, 4-12 will be the ceiling of this team.  

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Bills are not good enough to grab another MLB in the 1st Round just because they rate him a 92 and the best WR available a 90. 

 

A 92 and a 90 are probably close enough that they are in the same tier of prospects I can live with that. In any one draft there are rarely more than 7 or 8 true elite prospects. I don't pass on one of them (especially if they are in a premium position) to take a non elite prospect at a position of need. It is the equivalent of passing on your 92 MLB for an 85 WR. There is clear differentiation there - take the elite prospect.

[nedboy7]

You forgot McDermott.