Buffalo News: GM Beane breaks down trading up twice in first round of NFL Draft

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's great stuff.  Plenty of details. 

 

One thing that's changed under McBeane is that they aren't afraid to tell you stuff.  They are confident about what they can and can't say, and they share information. That's great for the fans.  

 

One question.  Beane says he knew very very little about the qbs on the day the Jets traded up.  Beand saod, essentially, that he was in no position to make a move like that at that time.  Well, the Jets traded a boat load to get to three, so they to know there were three qbs they would take.  How could they be so sure about threw when Beane didn't know anything?  Were the Jets just stupid and got lucky?

 

I think a couple of things can be inferred:

1) Beane is prevaricating.  I don't think the exact quite was "very very little" but he certainly did try to give that impression ("I've only met with these guys for 15 minutes").  Yet at the Combine, he said he had told his scouts to set the draft board as though they were going to "draft tomorrow" and then they would revisit it after the combine and pro days etc.  How could they do that if they really knew so very very little?  They would be setting it without data, it would make no sense.

2) The Jets made the trade because they knew enough to believe there were 3 QB available that they wanted at #3 OR they had intel that Gettleman was all in on keeping the pick and drafting a QB and there were 2 QB they wanted #3 (I'm gonna guess the latter), but not 4.

3) The Bills did NOT make the trade at that point because, trading up from pick #12 vs pick #6, they would have had to give up a much bigger haul, and they weren't certain they had 2 or 3 QBs for whom they were willing to give up that size of a haul (almost certainly 2 1sts this year, 1 1st next year, and a bunch of 2nds this year and next)

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

That's great stuff.  Plenty of details. 

 

One thing that's changed under McBeane is that they aren't afraid to tell you stuff.  They are confident about what they can and can't say, and they share information. That's great for the fans.  

 

One question.  Beane says he knew very very little about the qbs on the day the Jets traded up.  Beand saod, essentially, that he was in no position to make a move like that at that time.  Well, the Jets traded a boat load to get to three, so they to know there were three qbs they would take.  How could they be so sure about threw when Beane didn't know anything?  Were the Jets just stupid and got lucky?

 

I read numerous pieces from the NY media that said Mike Maccagnan sold Woody Johnson well over a year ago on going all in and doing whatever it took to get one of the top 4 QBs in this class (hence all the veteran players cut and the pretty much unprecedented trade up to #3 6 weeks before the draft (when has that ever happened before?)). 

 

Id have to dig up the articles again, but the impression I got was Maccagnan basically bet his job on landing one of these top 4 QBs, so not getting one of the 4 was not an option for him. 

 

 

 

I think it also comes down to Beane and McDermott being much more thorough and calculating, and Maccagnan being a bit more reckless. 

 

The Jets hadn't even had a chance to sit and talk with any of these QBs before that trade up, and had no idea which one of 3 they would land. Smells like desperation to me... 

[WotAGuy]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

Yeah, it's just...I live in Portland, Oregon, so having a Buffalo newspaper subscription doesn't make a ton of sense for me. Even in terms of "home town coverage", I'm from Rochester, so....I dunno. I can't seem to justify it in my mind.

 

So you can’t see the Logic in it?

[IgotBILLStopay]

23 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

The Jets hadn't even had a chance to sit and talk with any of these QBs before that trade up, and had no idea which one of 3 they would land. Smells like desperation to me... 

hey hey .. desperation maybe - or he had done his research and felt #3 QB was worth the trade up and #2 QB would be a bonus with #1 QB the icing. It appears that the Jets GM has done well this offseason - of course games still need to be played. That said, I liked our GM's approach to the whole thing.

[zevo]

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

I can't read the article.    Maybe someone can answer a question:

 

Did Beane make it clear that he would have taken Josh Allen at #5 had the deal with Denver happened?

 

Who was the target at #5 if Denver is willing to deal with us?

 

 

Who else would they have picked at 5?

[Cheektowaga Chad]

This makes me wonder how high they had Edmunds rated, if he was sticking out on their board at pick 13. Top 5 or 6?

[Boca BIlls]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

What’s interesting is that the Bills would not have given up much more (if any) to move up to 5.  And that TB, not Buffalo, was the one who initiated the deal at 7, although I’m sure they had spoken.  Good stuff.

#22 in the first round is light years better than anything else you can think of the Bills had.

[BillsFan4]

Just now, IgotBILLStopay said:

hey hey .. desperation maybe - or he had done his research and felt #3 QB was worth the trade up and #2 QB would be a bonus with #1 QB the icing. It appears that the Jets GM has done well this offseason - of course games still need to be played. That said, I liked our GM's approach to the whole thing.

 

I am sure Maccagnan had done as much research as he could have at that point in time. 

 

But if its true that this was his plan over over a year ago, Darnold and Allen had only played a single season at that point and Rosen had just missed the 2nd half of the season with a bad shoulder injury (to his throwing shoulder IIRC), so he had only played 1 & 1/2 seasons. 

 

 

A LOT can change over the course of a year... 

 

Christian Hackenberg was the next great thing and sure fire #1 overall pick after his first year in college. 

Matt Barkley was thought to be a potential top 3-4 pick if he had entered the draft in 2012 (Luck/RGIII) and after he didn't declare most thought he'd be a top pick in 2013 (he ended up going in the 3rd IIRC and 5 years later hasn't really done anything in the NFL). 

 

 

Plus, like I mentioned, since scouts aren't allowed to talk to college players during the season, the Jets hadn't had a chance to even meet with the QBs personally at the point of that trade. Maybe a couple of them for a grand total of 15mins at the senior bowl/combine. Pre draft visits hadn't happened yet. Private workouts hadn't happened yet. 

 

The Jets took a big gamble IMO. When has Any team ever traded up to #3 6 weeks before the draft? It just comes off as a team willing to just throw a dart at one of these QBs and hope it sticks. 

 

 

 

Like you said, I like our GMs approach better. He vetted these QBs as fully as possible, using every available avenue to do so, waited to see if the actual guy(s) he wanted were still on the board, and only then did he decide to move up and take a shot on that QB. 

 

 

And the Jets may very well end up being lucky with their pick. But it still doesn't necessarily mean their method was right... 

Edited May 5, 2018 by BillsFan4

[Logic]

It is an absolute MIRACLE that the Bills got to use both 1st round picks, landed a quarterback AND Tremaine Edmunds, AND somehow also did not give up any of next year's picks.

All because the Browns took Denzel Ward. What a crazy league.

By the way...as good as I feel about the direction of the Bills this offseason...Think about NEXT offseason! They have about $90 million in cap space, their full complement of draft picks, and you KNOW they'll be looking to surround Allen with talent. Exciting times.

[BillsFan17]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's great stuff.  Plenty of details. 

 

One thing that's changed under McBeane is that they aren't afraid to tell you stuff.  They are confident about what they can and can't say, and they share information. That's great for the fans.  

 

One question.  Beane says he knew very very little about the qbs on the day the Jets traded up.  Beand saod, essentially, that he was in no position to make a move like that at that time.  Well, the Jets traded a boat load to get to three, so they to know there were three qbs they would take.  How could they be so sure about threw when Beane didn't know anything?  Were the Jets just stupid and got lucky?

I feel like there is a bit of fabrication with the "we didnt know who we wanted" at that point. Sure they may have needed more one on one time, but you have been scouting these kids for how long? You dont put all your eggs in a QBs basket without having a good body of information on them.

 

One thing I remember reading during the draft process about teams working out/setting up visits with these QBs... Not so much to read into them as forgone interest in the spec, but could help the team gauge a little bit in terms of- they may already have their guy in mind and want to see if anyone in the field can do enough to change their mind.

[BuffaloRebound]

Seems like Beane made sure he was the only team the Giants and Browns would’ve traded down with and then honed in on the Broncos knowing one of his top 3 QB’s was gonna be there at 5 if Beane wasn’t doing a deal with Giants or Browns.  With the Jets trading to 3 almost 2 months before the draft, seems like Bills and Jets both viewed this draft as having 3 top QB’s.  Rosen really must’ve rubbed teams the wrong way.  

[IgotBILLStopay]

BTW, the real info in that interview was for the Saints Fans - Now we know why Saints had to part with an arm and a leg for #14 from the Packers. They were bidding against the Bills, who only needed to move from #22 (as opposed to #27).

 

 

One way to assess how good the draft strategy was is to see if we overreached - could we have gotten the same player with a lower pick? It is still possible Bills could have gotten Allen at 10, but we know for sure they couldnt have gotten Edmunds below since Chargers were picking him at 17.

Edited May 5, 2018 by IgotBILLStopay

[zevo]

22 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

BTW, the real info in that interview was for the Saints Fans - Now we know why Saints had to part with an arm and a leg for #14 from the Packers. They were bidding against the Bills, who only needed to move from #22 (as opposed to #27).

 

 

One way to assess how good the draft strategy was is to see if we overreached - could we have gotten the same player with a lower pick? It is still possible Bills could have gotten Allen at 10, but we know for sure they couldnt have gotten Edmunds below since Chargers were picking him at 17.

The Bills were not getting Allen at 10

[Mat68]

13 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

I can't read the article.    Maybe someone can answer a question:

 

Did Beane make it clear that he would have taken Josh Allen at #5 had the deal with Denver happened?

 

Who was the target at #5 if Denver is willing to deal with us?

 

 

He wasnt trading up for Nelson.  I think the answer is obvious.  Allen was the target everywhere from 3 on.  The trade was agreed on, only contigent was unless the Broncos guy was there.  That guy was Chubb.. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

39 minutes ago, zevo said:

The Bills were not getting Allen at 10

Only said it is "possible" - not that it is "likely"

we dont know whether arizona was offering something worthwhile to Tampa Bay to trade down - though I'd be surprised if they didnt

[bkep32]

Glad it worked out they way it did....per pft..http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/05/05/bills-tried-to-trade-up-with-browns-broncos-before-getting-josh-allen-at-no-7/

I dunno if i would have liked allen at 5 for the 2firsts and a 2nd.  Deal was in place all depending on if chubb was there at 5 or not.  So once again thank you cleveland for taking ward.

[Magnum Force]

I feel the same way....it was a Perfect Storm.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Absolutely. We do either of the deals with Cleveland or Denver and we can kiss Edmunds good bye. If Edmunds goes on to be a perennial pro bowl type player we will thank our lucky stars Beane held steadfast on not giving up two first rounders. 

[Doc]

Hopefully he took the right QB at 7.  Otherwise it means little.

[Magnum Force]

Assuming we made no trades and both Allen and Edmunds would have fell to pick 12 (this was pre draft )  I was debating on which outcome I would rather have....Allen at 12 and Vander Esch at 22 or Edmunds at 12 and Jackson/Rudolph at 22

[Roundybout]

From what I heard, it's lucky the Bucs even decided to trade with us in the first place. 

[Marv's Neighbor]

IF hindsight tells us that all this worked, he will be a genius! 

IF not, well, if not, we've been there and done that and all that's been done was to re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, moored at 1 BILLS Dr. 

[Doc]

17 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:

Assuming we made no trades and both Allen and Edmunds would have fell to pick 12 (this was pre draft )  I was debating on which outcome I would rather have....Allen at 12 and Vander Esch at 22 or Edmunds at 12 and Jackson/Rudolph at 22

 

The Cards wanted Allen and would have taken him at 7.  The real question is whether they could have gotten Rosen at 12, Edmunds at 16, and kept their 2nd rounders?

9 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

IF hindsight tells us that all this worked, he will be a genius! 

IF not, well, if not, we've been there and done that and all that's been done was to re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, moored at 1 BILLS Dr. 

 

Depends on McCarron and Peterman.  If all 3 are busts then maybe, but Beane didn't mortgage the future.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Doc

[Magnum Force]

Just now, Doc said:

 

The Cards wanted Allen and would have taken him at 7.  The real question is whether they could have gotten Rosen at 12, Edmunds at 16, and kept their 2nd rounders?

I was just doing a hypothetical of where I was at pre draft.  Basically saying we ended up with both players I was debating over who I would rather have if they fell to 12.  I didn't think either would be there at 12 to be honest and was surprised when Edmunds fell. 

[NewEra]

Thank the browns for drafting Ward

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Thank the browns for drafting Ward

 

The Browns are awesome! 

 

...unless you’re a Browns fan...

[BuffaloBillyG]

50 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The Cards wanted Allen and would have taken him at 7.  The real question is whether they could have gotten Rosen at 12, Edmunds at 16, and kept their 2nd rounders?

 

Depends on McCarron and Peterman.  If all 3 are busts then maybe, but Beane didn't mortgage the future.

Honestly I feel like Beane would have passed on Rosen and taken Edmunds at 12 then turned around and grabbed Rudolph at 22. 

[Paul Costa]

9 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Honestly I feel like Beane would have passed on Rosen and taken Edmunds at 12 then turned around and grabbed Rudolph at 22. 

Agree ?

[gobills1212]

1 hour ago, Magnum Force said:

Assuming we made no trades and both Allen and Edmunds would have fell to pick 12 (this was pre draft )  I was debating on which outcome I would rather have....Allen at 12 and Vander Esch at 22 or Edmunds at 12 and Jackson/Rudolph at 22

How do you figure Allen would have been there at 12 though? No way, no how, so it's kind of a moot point. I get what you are saying though..

Edited May 5, 2018 by gobills1212

[Magnum Force]

4 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

How do you figure Allen would have been there at 12 though? No way, no how, so it's kind of a moot point. I get what you are saying though..

Wishful think?  I really didn't think either would last until pick 12 though I wanted both.  Maybe I should have posted it like this.....QB at pick 12 and hopefully Vander Esch at 22 or Edmonds at pick 12 and QB at 22.  I was just surprised that we ended up with both of them. Kind of surreal the way this all played out.

[HappyDays]

13 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

This makes me wonder how high they had Edmunds rated, if he was sticking out on their board at pick 13. Top 5 or 6?

 

Based on the info that's come out I would guess our draft board looked something like this:

1) Josh Allen
2) Sam Darnold
3) Bradley Chubb
4) Quinton Nelson
5) Roquon Smith
6) Tremaine Edmunds

[The Jokeman]

14 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

 

 

I think it also comes down to Beane and McDermott being much more thorough and calculating, and Maccagnan being a bit more reckless. 

 

 

We also have to remember that the Jets GM/HC are probably on a short leash right now as they haven't produced much since their first season (2015) so they have to go more "all in". Whereas Beane etc made the playoffs last season and would say are safe for the next three seasons.

[Punching Bag]

15 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Most all else you get is just the same Sully or Bucky half day of typing about some trivial rant or insult or opinion.

 

This is why I will refuse to pay any amount to Buffalo News - I believe that my contribution will help Sully and Bucky remain employed and it the opinion of my bank account to never fund something you hate.  

 

Separate Sully and Bucky opinions (neither do actually reporting) into a subdomain and see how many pay for their drivel. 

[HappyDays]

 

[DefenseWins]

The only part of all this that makes little sense to me is WTH did Cleveland take Ward instead of Chubb? Yeah, I know "because after all - they're Cleveland"... I guess Cleveland didn't pay much attention to the fact that the Bills were able to draft a quality CB last year so late in the 1st round. I really think they will come to regret NOT drafting Chubb.

 

Also, all I have heard is that Cleveland liked both Mayfield and Allen at #1. So basically nobody really was thrilled with Rosen. Even Arizona valued Allen over Rosen. I wonder if it was the concussions or the shoulder injury mentioned earlier in this thread or his attitude displayed in pre-draft visits...

 

I still think that barring injury all 4 QB's will have solid careers... We'll see how things pan out...

 

[The Now Moment]

19 hours ago, mannc said:

I’m not saying I’m unhappy with what we got, but if the Bills do that trade with Denver, they end up with two more premium picks in the draft: pick 65 and Denver’s third, while effectively swapping 22 for 56.  

I'd much rather have it this way.  Third round picks are far from premium picks.  We got widely regarded top ten player in the draft at a major position of need because we kept the 22nd pick.  That is way more valuable than a couple of picks later in the draft IMO.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is a fantastic article:

 

http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/04/inside-the-bills-gm-brandon-beane-breaks-down-how-he-traded-up-twice-in-first-round-of-nfl-draft/?utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1525465869

 

I see now it's behind a paywall. I was able to read it a few minutes ago and now I can't. If someone can copy and paste it that would be helpful.

 

Awesome article. I read it right away so I wouldn't lose the opportunity to.

 

Beane sounds legitimately like he was super excited about this draft, even though I think it's clear he had Darnold ranked ahead of Allen, but I think Allen was his #2 and wasn't all that far behind.

 

Just a guess, though.

 

One quote I thought was really interesting:

“I think what's come with social media and all the draft coverage is that all the stats get plastered out there,” he said. “I said it on the radio show the other day ... one of the guys said something about Josh Allen being raw. I went into a thing like, raw came from a national pundit. They labeled these guys as different things. Some of them I agreed with, some of them I did not.”

 

I don't think Beane really views Allen as all that raw and it seems to indicate there's a strong possibility he starts pretty quickly, if not immediately.

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Buffalo30 said:

I'd much rather have it this way.  Third round picks are far from premium picks.  We got widely regarded top ten player in the draft at a major position of need because we kept the 22nd pick.  That is way more valuable than a couple of picks later in the draft IMO.

If Edmunds becomes a star, you’re probably right, but if the Denver trade happens, then instead of Edmunds, we get picks 56, 65 and either 71 or 99 (article does not say which of Denver’s 3ds we would get back).  That’s a substantial haul and despite what you might think, those are considered premium picks.  No way to know who the Bills would have taken of course, but IMO, the Bills would have made out just as well if they had traded up to 5 for Allen.

Edited May 5, 2018 by mannc

[BigDingus]

18 hours ago, Logic said:

It is an absolute MIRACLE that the Bills got to use both 1st round picks, landed a quarterback AND Tremaine Edmunds, AND somehow also did not give up any of next year's picks.

All because the Browns took Denzel Ward. What a crazy league.

By the way...as good as I feel about the direction of the Bills this offseason...Think about NEXT offseason! They have about $90 million in cap space, their full complement of draft picks, and you KNOW they'll be looking to surround Allen with talent. Exciting times.

 

It's exciting but scary at the same time.

On one hand, if Allen shows some real promise this year then it'll be awesome going into next offseason with all that cap space.

On the other hand, if he shows JP Losman/EJ Manuel "potential," that cap space could bite us in the ***. GM's usually don't want to accept they made a bad pick, and will likely double down the following year citing the need to "surround with talent" in order for the QB to succeed. Then they waste big money and draft picks on skill position players that can't elevate the QB, and set us back years to come. 

We could go all in on the next Lee Evans or Sammy Watkins, make splashes in Free Agency, trade pieces to beef up the defense, etc. but if the QB doesn't show actual growth, it might be all for nothing. 

[The Now Moment]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

If Edmunds becomes a star, you’re probably right, but if the Denver trade happens, then instead of Edmunds, we get picks 56, 65 and either 71 or 99 (article does not say which of Denver’s 3ds we would get back).  That’s a substantial haul and despite what you might think, those are considered premium picks.  No way to know who the Bills would have taken of course, but IMO, the Bills would have made out just as well if they had traded up to 5 for Allen.

I just ran the numbers on the draft pick value chart and 16 is worth 1000 and 56, 65 and 71 added up to 840.  I get that it's three players but I think you are underestimating how valuable a mid to high first round pick is worth.  Edmunds was considered a top 10 player at a need position.  You could probably even add more value to that 1000 because of who we got.  They made the right move.