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Peter King MM Mock Draft 4/23/18.


PIZ

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11 minutes ago, KRT88 said:

It means nothing but exactly how was Arizona able to get the #5 pick and Buffalo wouldn't?  Bills have way more firepower to make a move then Cards.

 

 

I imagine it would take Arizonas 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th to move up that high.  Exactly half of their draft, and 3 of their 4 early picks.  I would think they are the team more likely to pick Allen if he drops.

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In that situation (Darnold, Mayfield, and Rosen gone), why trade up?  I don't think the Bucs, Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, or Raiders have any interest in Josh Allen.  The Patriots would be the only potential team to jump us and I don't see them doing that for somebody with as many question marks as Josh Allen.  He'd pry be there at #12 if we're dumb enough to draft him.

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39 minutes ago, PIZ said:

5. Arizona (from Denver)—Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 

Call this hunch the Won’t Get Fooled Again Pick. I’ve always thought a segment of the Cardinals had regrets over the 2017 draft when, with a 37-year-old quarterback (Carson Palmer) possibly in his last year, they were leap-frogged by teams who took Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson one and three picks ahead of them. Plus, the Cardinals don’t like Baker Mayfield. They love him. That’s a good thing, because John Elway likes him a lot too. Interesting strange-bedfellows scene at the Broncos’ cafeteria during Mayfield’s on-campus visit. Elway sat alone at one table with Mayfield, conversing. Walking through the salad bar at the time: Case Keenum.

 

6. Buffalo (from Indianapolis)—Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

While we’re hung up on finding a landing spot for all the quarterbacks, I’d remind you of four things at this pick: A) I don’t know if Buffalo loves Allen; B) but I hear they love his ability to throw it through the lake effect winds and snow; C) Allen is a garrulous, genial version of Jim Kelly, a rifle-armed work in progress the fans in western New York will love; and D) I think this trade fits both teams because I’m not sure the Colts would demand both Bills’ first-round picks in return. In fact, because of the strength of the second round, I could see Colts GM Chris Ballard valuing the 53rd and 56th picks collectively higher than the 22nd pick in this draft. So, 12, 53, 56 and, say, 96 for six? Could be equitable. It would leave the Bills with their second of two first-rounders.

 

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6 minutes ago, elltrain22 said:

I don't doubt Arizona's want or need to move up to #5, but if they did move up, I would be VERY surprised if they didn't pick Josh Allen. I have read & heard that they have been in  love with Allen for 2 years now. 

 

Thing is that was a different staff. They were connected to Allen because of Arians’ need for a guy that focuses on the long ball. That’s no longer needed, hence bringing in two guys that tend to lean on the short stuff in Bradford and Glennon. Nobody seems to know what to expect from the Cardinals now but based on the few dots that we have to connect, I would think the previous regime was much higher on Allen than the new one is (doesn’t mean the new regime doesn’t like Allen though).

 

seems like Buffalo could wait a little longer to move up if things played out this way but I suspect that they’d consider it a win if they only give up one first round pick and get the guy I suspect they have at 1 or 2 on their board. 

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If the sweet spot of this draft (once the top-tier, blue-chip guys are gone) is truly the 2nd and 3rd rounds... and maybe even if it’s not because I’d argue 53, 56, & 96 are collectively more valuable than just 22... I’d rather give up 22 than all three of those picks.

 

Some pundits had posited than the difference between 25 and 45 in a draft like this will be minimal. So I’d rather part with 22 (just 22) to move up to 6.

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Every time I see a mock with a G/C as the pick at 22 when good linebackers are still on the board I know the writer knows little about our needs and just reads headlines.

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

In that situation (Darnold, Mayfield, and Rosen gone), why trade up?  I don't think the Bucs, Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, or Raiders have any interest in Josh Allen.  The Patriots would be the only potential team to jump us and I don't see them doing that for somebody with as many question marks as Josh Allen.  He'd pry be there at #12 if we're dumb enough to draft him.

I could see the Pats moving for him. They could easily believe the Patriot Way and sitting behind Brady helps him hit his ceiling.

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I wouldn't mind Allen at 6,7, or 8 but  you'd probably have to land him at 6 because there's just too much chatter about teams wanting QBs.  I think Center at 22 is fine as well.  About the only thing I would not like is not having 2nd rounders to add another interior lineman and a linebacker or WR.  But it's the price you have to pay.

11 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Every time I see a mock with a G/C as the pick at 22 when good linebackers are still on the board I know the writer knows little about our needs and just reads headlines.

I could see the Pats moving for him. They could easily believe the Patriot Way and sitting behind Brady helps him hit his ceiling.

 

 

It's not like we don't need interior OL either though.  And the best way to build the OL is from the inside out starting at the Center.  They are mocking the best center talent to us.  I don't see an issue with that.  We actually need that and an upgrade at RT.  I'd prefer LB and know it's an equal need but it's not like we don't need a great middle player on the offense.

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1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

I imagine it would take Arizonas 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th to move up that high.  Exactly half of their draft, and 3 of their 4 early picks.  I would think they are the team more likely to pick Allen if he drops.

 

Still not as good as 12, 53, 56 and 96 that he supposedly has the Bills giving up to get to 6. That is why it is funny (and a cop-out) that King is careful to specify what he has the Bills giving up to get to 6 but makes no mention of what the Cardinals with less ammunition, jumping up a pick higher and having to move up further (10 to 5 as opposed to 12 to 6) would have to give up. In order for the Cardinals to beat the Bills' deal  deal, they would have to give up all of their top picks (as you say) from this year's draft PLUS next year's first.

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If we trade with colts I think they want next years first rather than this years seconds. But if it’s broncos I think they want this years picks.  Thing is if we get solid players with those seconds and the other first along with nailing the qb pick we are a playoff hunt team and it’s a later First pick. I do that all day

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43 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

I wouldn't mind Allen at 6,7, or 8 but  you'd probably have to land him at 6 because there's just too much chatter about teams wanting QBs.  I think Center at 22 is fine as well.  About the only thing I would not like is not having 2nd rounders to add another interior lineman and a linebacker or WR.  But it's the price you have to pay.

 

It's not like we don't need interior OL either though.  And the best way to build the OL is from the inside out starting at the Center.  They are mocking the best center talent to us.  I don't see an issue with that.  We actually need that and an upgrade at RT.  I'd prefer LB and know it's an equal need but it's not like we don't need a great middle player on the offense.

Even with Wood and Cogs retirement our weakest spot is still RT imo. Groy, Bodine and a later pick to compete should be able to compete. Add into that Vlad did play better down the stretch and John Miller, while forgotten about played extremely well just 2 seasons ago in a similar style blocking scheme as we are expecting to run this year.

 

At LBer we have...Milano. And not much else.

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Just now, Virgil said:

Why trade up after the big 3 are gone. To lose picks and get Allen would be less than fun 

 

That's my thought.  Seems like worst-case scenario - giving up a bunch of picks to get the last of "The Four QBs" as opposed to the one they want.  Better off staying put and taking Lamar Jackson, at that point.

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1 hour ago, McBean said:

NFL guys know talent way more than me

 

Ehhhhhh I wouldn't necessarily say that. NFL teams show time and time again they are terrible at their jobs. These days we have access to the same film they use to evaluate prospects. I've seen people on these boards that are better at predicting QB success than the average NFL team.

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The most interesting thing in the article is this, and I think it bodes well for us:  

 

• There will be some trades in this draft that might seem one-sided. Several team officials told me in the past few days that they value Day 2 picks (rounds two and three) so highly that they’d be willing to take slightly less in compensation to move down. Where could this come into play? Cleveland (four), Indianapolis (six), Baltimore (16), Seattle (18), New England (23, 31), New Orleans (27), Philadelphia (32). “This is not your typical draft,” said one veteran club official Sunday. “The second, third and even fourth rounds are gold. You can take less than the trade-value chart says and still make a very good trade if you get multiple picks in those rounds.”

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14 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Even with Wood and Cogs retirement our weakest spot is still RT imo. Groy, Bodine and a later pick to compete should be able to compete. Add into that Vlad did play better down the stretch and John Miller, while forgotten about played extremely well just 2 seasons ago in a similar style blocking scheme as we are expecting to run this year.

 

At LBer we have...Milano. And not much else.

 

I still think for an offensive line to be great you need an elite talent in the middle of it.  We don't have that right now.  I'd take Daniels or Ragnow over Groy and Bodine in a heartbeat.  Let Groy be the back up at C and have him, Bodine, Miller in competition at the Guard spots with Vlad, who I'm not a fan of honestly but he'll suffice I guess.  RT I'd take in the 3rd.  

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14 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Why trade up after the big 3 are gone. To lose picks and get Allen would be less than fun 

If the draft were to play out like this I would think we traded up to 6 first and made an effort to get even higher, but failed, and then the Cards traded up ahead of us to grab QB3.

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7 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

I still think for an offensive line to be great you need an elite talent in the middle of it.  We don't have that right now.  I'd take Daniels or Ragnow over Groy and Bodine in a heartbeat.  Let Groy be the back up at C and have him, Bodine, Miller in competition at the Guard spots with Vlad, who I'm not a fan of honestly but he'll suffice I guess.  RT I'd take in the 3rd.  

Oh, I'm with you on Ragnow. I'd even move up in round 2 to get him. But right now with what we have on the roster if (and it's a huge if) we have a pick at 22 it has to be a LBer. There are a few that will be there that will be great picks. 

 

3 minutes ago, JinxedBill1 said:

If Rosen, Darnold and mayfield are gone why trade up?  Plus, Rosen to the Jets would be a disaster.  

Curious to hear why you think that? A disaster for who? The Bills? Jets? Rosen?

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2 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Oh, I'm with you on Ragnow. I'd even move up in round 2 to get him. But right now with what we have on the roster if (and it's a huge if) we have a pick at 22 it has to be a LBer. There are a few that will be there that will be great picks. 

 

Curious to hear why you think that? A disaster for who? The Bills? Jets? Rosen?

Yeah my bad for us the Bills.  I think Rosen will be the best QB out of this draft.

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4 minutes ago, JinxedBill1 said:

Yeah my bad for us the Bills.  I think Rosen will be the best QB out of this draft.

That's what I figured you meant. But just wanted to clarify. 

 

Fwiw, I'm a big "fit" guy. You could have the best player in the world but if he's in a bad situation it increases his chances to fail.

 

All I can think of with Rosen in NY (Mayfield as well) is that the media in NY is relentless. I can see them creating issues by baiting Rosen for quotes easily. Controversial statements create cash.

3 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

What happened to the big rumor he reported that the Browns are picking Allen at #1?

That was sooooo 2 weeks ago. 

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2 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

That's what I figured you meant. But just wanted to clarify. 

 

Fwiw, I'm a big "fit" guy. You could have the best player in the world but if he's in a bad situation it increases his chances to fail.

 

All I can think of with Rosen in NY (Mayfield as well) is that the media in NY is relentless. I can see them creating issues by baiting Rosen for quotes easily. Controversial statements create cash.

That was sooooo 2 weeks ago. 

Meh.  I think Rosen would be smart enough to just poke the PC culture and not vilify it.  He needs a nice college town that doesn't care what he does so long as he throws the ball for more than 200 yards.  Buffalo is what the doctor ordered. 

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18 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Oh, I'm with you on Ragnow. I'd even move up in round 2 to get him. But right now with what we have on the roster if (and it's a huge if) we have a pick at 22 it has to be a LBer. There are a few that will be there that will be great picks. 

 

Curious to hear why you think that? A disaster for who? The Bills? Jets? Rosen?

 

I agree with the need at LB it's just that I don't think they will pigeonhole themselves into taking one at 22 although I'd want them too.  These guys have been around GMs that place a high value on trench players.  I wouldn't be surprised with it.  You have Warner, Leonard, O'Daniel, Jewell still on the board at linebacker.  And honestly, the team needs at least two of them.  It would also be great to snag a WR but at some point, we have to realize we are not going to get everything we need.

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Man i don't like the Allen pick for some reason with Roquan Smith sitting there which is a better value at that high of a pick & i would think a more sure pick at a position of need also MLB is the QB of the D & he is a first round talent & the best at the position in this draft.

 

I think it would be a mistake Allen is to much of a boom or bust prospect I hope they wait top ten is to much of a investment in him & there are to many question marks !! 

 

Go Bills !! 

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Yea, this makes no sense.  Arizona can't jump us unless they are offering their 2019 #1 as well.

 

Also, I'm not giving up a first and two seconds for the 4th QB when there is no risk of him going in the next 5 picks.  If Arizona already jumped us, we only have to worry about Miami, and I believe Mayfield was their target.  With him gone I don't think they'd take Allen even if he was available at #11.  People seem to think Allen needs to be traded up for.

 

If you look at ALL the mocks and speculation, Allen either goes #1 or in a trade up to us, there are no links to him and any other team.  I legitimately feel if doesn't go 1, he falls all the way to 12 (barring a Arizona trade up).  If we trade up for Rosen/Mayfield and Allen doesn't go #1 I think he falls all the way to Arizona at #15.

 

I trust Beane knows value and is smart when it comes to valuing talent.  Peter King's scenario won't happen.

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29 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Explain Bortles and Gabbert then?

You’re not going to hit them all.

 

I’m just saying if the FO selects him we need to welcome Allen and support him. Trust the guys calling the shots.

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