Oof - the penalty for being good, but not good enough

[transient]

I’m not going to do the work, but I’d be interested in seeing this list relative to QB they played with and staff they were coached by. WR production really depends on the team they have around them. 

[Maynard]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I love Odunze.  If we can't land him, I kinda hope we double up on McConkey and Worthy.  Adding them gives us 3 WR's who run 4.3 and below - 40's.  

McConkey can play the outside and Worthy was predominantly outside.

 

This speed stretches the defenses.  If Allen had the Dolphins speed and with Kincaid in the middle....erection.

I love him too. I’m a UW fan and watched him all season long. I’d be very comfortable moving up for him because I know exactly what we’ll be getting.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It is but we pick where we are slotted and the success rate at all positions drop the further you go down.

 

true, true, but you hope to make up for that with more whacks at the mole, yes?
 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I like that. Think that could happen after a trade-down?

 

 

I would think McConkey at 28 and coming back up to get Worthy or vice versa.

[H2o]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

trade down or stay put/bpa it is then

 

I've said it from the beginning that MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze just seem to be a cut above the rest. If the opportunity presents itself, and it's not something absolutely ridiculous compensation wise, then you make that move. 

 

If we stay put and the Chiefs jump for a WR, then watch the same people saying "we shouldn't move up" claim it was the greatest move ever by an organization constantly beating us out. 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, H2o said:

I've said it from the beginning that MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze just seem to be a cut above the rest. If the opportunity presents itself, and it's not something absolutely ridiculous compensation wise, then you make that move. 

 

If we stay put and the Chiefs jump for a WR, then watch the same people saying "we shouldn't move up" claim it was the greatest move ever by an organization constantly beating us out. 

 

The one thing that would upset me is if the Chiefs jump ahead of us to get McConkey or Worthy....like they move up to like 25-27 just to steal one of them from us.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

Half this list would be WR1 in Buffalo if they were still playing lol.

 

Hard to make a worse point

 

Edited April 24 by FireChans

[BigDingus]

Just shows the draft really is a crapshoot, because I'm sure the hits jump up once you get into the 2nd & later rounds.

 

While many of those late 1st round picks were failures, you have teams finding Nacua, Diggs & Hill much later. 

[Dan Darragh]

Last time Bills traded up for a WR? 

 

I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins.  How do you feel about that?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Half this list would be WR1 in Buffalo if they were still playing lol.

 

Hard to make a worse point

 

9 of them. Really.

 

Which 9?

 

Just now, Dan Darragh said:

Last time Bills traded up for a WR? 

 

I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins.  How do you feel about that?

 

Like hell, actually. It makes me nervous, doubly so given the guys Beane's rolled out there at WR in the past.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

Just shows the draft really is a crapshoot, because I'm sure the hits jump up once you get into the 2nd & later rounds.

 

While many of those late 1st round picks were failures, you have teams finding Nacua, Diggs & Hill much later. 

 

This ignores plenty of top 16 misses in some of the same years.  Like yes Agholor isn't an amazing player, but kevin white never even played.  Will fuller had some really bad injury luck - but corey coleman was straight up bad at football.  

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

9 of them. Really.

 

Which 9?

 

 

Like hell, actually. It makes me nervous, doubly so given the guys Beane's rolled out there at WR in the past.

 

B. Cooks

W. Fuller

D. Moore

C. Ridley

M. Brown

C. Lamb

J. Jefferson

B. Aiyuk 

 

EZ lmao

Edited April 24 by FireChans

[Kaenon]

2023 season receiving yards leaders

 

1. Hill - 5th round pick

2. Lamb - 1st

3. St. Brown - 4th

4. Nacua - 5th

5. AJ Brown - 2nd

6. DJ Moore - 1st

7. Aiyuk - 1st

8. Collins - 3rd

9. Evans - 1st

10. Cooper - 1st

11. K. Allen - 3rd

12. Chase - 1st

13. Diggs - 5th

14. Pittman - 2nd

15. D. Adams - 2nd

 

injury notables 

- Jefferson - 1st

- Kupp - 3rd

 

 

17 player sample size

 

1 - 7

2 - 3

3 - 3

4 - 1

5 - 3

6 - 0

7 - 0

udfa - 0

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Last time Bills traded up for a WR? 

 

I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins.  How do you feel about that?

 

 

Do you mean the first round?  

 

I believe we traded up for Shakir.  Also they traded up for Zay Jones.  

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

B. Cooks

W. Fuller

D. Moore

C. Ridley

M. Brown

C. Lamb

J. Jefferson

B. Aiyuk 

 

EZ lmao

 

Cooks' past two seasons didn't approach 1000 yards

Fuller? Come on.

 

Stretching hard with some of those. But at least I can agree on the last three, and maybe ridley.

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

There is so much more meat on that bone for deeper analysis.
 

Plenty of those WRs had really good seasons when they had good QB play or good offensive systems. Even K. Benjamin had 1000 yards his rookie season, but missed the following and was never the same. 
 

A rookie WR is coming in to play with Josh Allen and an offensive system that had been very WR friendly in the past. 

Edited April 24 by TheyCallMeAndy

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Cooks' past two seasons didn't approach 1000 yards

Fuller? Come on.

 

Stretching hard with some of those. But at least I can agree on the last three, and maybe ridley.

 

I mean, 3-4 years ago was a different story for both, they were both drafted 10 years ago.

 

Jerry Rice wouldn’t start on this team tomorrow. But we would all take Jerry Rice in his prime, right?

 

Maybe Ridley? And DJ Moore? Can’t agree there? Or Hollywood?

 

MAYBE?
 

that’s just absurd. 

8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

There is so much more meat on that bone for deeper analysis.
 

Plenty of those WRs had really good seasons when they had good QB play or good offensive systems. Even K. Benjamin had 1000 yards his rookie season, but missed the following and was never the same. 
 

A rookie WR is coming in to play with Josh Allen and an offensive system that had been very WR friendly in the past. 

Our WR system is not WR friendly. It’s the opposite, it’s notoriously difficult.

[Cray51]

B. Cooks - Good #2

K. Benjamin - Bad

W. Fuller - Bad

N. Agholor - #3/4

B. Perriman - Bad

P. Dorsett - Bad

J. Doctson - Bad

L. Treadwell - Bad

D. Moore - Low Tier #1

C. Ridley - Low Tier #1

M. Brown - Good #2

N. Harry - Bad

C. Lamb* - Mid Tier #1

J. Reagor - Bad

J. Jefferson** - Top #1

B. Aiyuk - Mid Tier #1

K. Toney - Bad

R. Bateman - #3 with Potential

 

So we have:

1 Top Tier #1

4 Mid/Low #1s

2 #2s

2-3 #3s

8 Bad

 

To be fair, in the last few years the results have been better:

Since 2018 Draft:

4 Mid/Low Tier #1s

1 Top End #1

1 Good #2

1 Good #3 with upside

3 Bads

 

So really the tweet is a little misleading.  In the past 5 drafts, teams in our position have found a #1 WR 50% of the time.  With this class being deep, the chance of that hit only goes up.  Is the risk there?  Of course.  But I'm not scared about picking a WR at 28.  If Beane had a guy they want, they need to go after them.

[benderbender]

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

B. Cooks - Good #2

K. Benjamin - Bad

W. Fuller - Bad

N. Agholor - #3/4

B. Perriman - Bad

P. Dorsett - Bad

J. Doctson - Bad

L. Treadwell - Bad

D. Moore - Low Tier #1

C. Ridley - Low Tier #1

M. Brown - Good #2

N. Harry - Bad

C. Lamb* - Mid Tier #1

J. Reagor - Bad

J. Jefferson** - Top #1

B. Aiyuk - Mid Tier #1

K. Toney - Bad

R. Bateman - #3 with Potential

 

So we have:

1 Top Tier #1

4 Mid/Low #1s

2 #2s

2-3 #3s

8 Bad

 

To be fair, in the last few years the results have been better:

Since 2018 Draft:

4 Mid/Low Tier #1s

1 Top End #1

1 Good #2

1 Good #3 with upside

3 Bads

 

So really the tweet is a little misleading.  In the past 5 drafts, teams in our position have found a #1 WR 50% of the time.  With this class being deep, the chance of that hit only goes up.  Is the risk there?  Of course.  But I'm not scared about picking a WR at 28.  If Beane had a guy they want, they need to go after them.

 

There's a fair number of misses in the top half of the drafts too.  And some of these were just... bad WR classes.  Kevin white in the top 10.  Corey coleman in the top 15.  Devante parker in the top 15.  Corey Davis at 5.  John Ross at 9.  

 

2018 and 2019 didn't even have guys going in the top half of the first.  I don't think its in this data, but neither did 2023.  

2020 Ruggs can be considered a bust.  

2021 was a top heavy group.  I don't think many teams had toney and bateman as 1st round grades.  It was also just... a bad draft in general as it followed the covid season.  

2022 - 5 dudes in the top 16.  So Burks is probably a bust - but he was the 6th one off the board in a pretty solid top 4.  

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

This is unpopular, but I think Bills need to go BPA if an elite talent drops. We need more stars on this team. I think the best thing would be a trade up in the 2nd round for a WR since this draft is so deep. I don’t see much difference in the 2nd tier guys and I think one can be had in that area of the draft.  

[BuffaloBill]

2 hours ago, Maynard said:

The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

 

 

I still feel burned by the Watkins trade and scenario.  WR is too much of a crap shoot to burn future picks.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?

it's not an acronym, it's a sound.

 

like you've been kicked in the scrote.

 

OOF

 

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I hear you. That said, I think Odunze is amazing and everything the Bills need in a WR. I see the next Davante Adams in him. He’s also a non-moron.

He’s the guy I’m locked on.  I fear I’m not the only one.  He looks like a guy who’s humble enough to hang around a long time and not be a problem, while being a top 10 WR.  That’s a rare RARE combo.  I kinda feel like this class is going to be one where the top guys might not be all world and there are some guys that really excel drafted later.  I don’t have the time to break down all the guys and try to pick my sleepers, but if you don’t land Odunze, which will take a massive trade up, I don’t think the value presents to take one of the tier 3 guys at 28.  I know a lot of people don’t want to hear it, but barring a big trade up, or someone taking a really unexpected fall (possible, if you look at the year we traded for Diggs, my #1 WR, Lamb fell to 17), then I won’t be shocked if we go back in the draft.   Also wouldn’t be shocked if they caught a stud on D that fell down the board a bit and they went that direction.  I know the board will melt down, but an impact CB, S or DL would make this team more complete and better suited to compete for a title.  The DL we have is not good enough unless Von is fully back and even if so, he’s probably in his last year here.  Then Groot has be signed to more than he’s producing or be replaced, so DE/Edge, whatever you call it, also needs talent added.
 

Big thing to take away, if they don’t start getting impact from the early round guys, this team will always be a bridesmaid and Allen will always be looked at as the QB that “can’t win it all”, which is complete bull####, but that’s the story until he does.  

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

I still feel burned by the Watkins trade and scenario.  WR is too much of a crap shoot to burn future picks.

Then there’s Julio Jones.. that worked out and ATL should have a title with him were it not for their own collapse.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

He’s the guy I’m locked on.  I fear I’m not the only one.  He looks like a guy who’s humble enough to hang around a long time and not be a problem, while being a top 10 WR.  That’s a rare RARE combo.  I kinda feel like this class is going to be one where the top guys might not be all world and there are some guys that really excel drafted later.  I don’t have the time to break down all the guys and try to pick my sleepers, but if you don’t land Odunze, which will take a massive trade up, I don’t think the value presents to take one of the tier 3 guys at 28.  I know a lot of people don’t want to hear it, but barring a big trade up, or someone taking a really unexpected fall (possible, if you look at the year we traded for Diggs, my #1 WR, Lamb fell to 17), then I won’t be shocked if we go back in the draft.   Also wouldn’t be shocked if they caught a stud on D that fell down the board a bit and they went that direction.  I know the board will melt down, but an impact CB, S or DL would make this team more complete and better suited to compete for a title.  The DL we have is not good enough unless Von is fully back and even if so, he’s probably in his last year here.  Then Groot has be signed to more than he’s producing or be replaced, so DE/Edge, whatever you call it, also needs talent added.
 

Big thing to take away, if they don’t start getting impact from the early round guys, this team will always be a bridesmaid and Allen will always be looked at as the QB that “can’t win it all”, which is complete bull####, but that’s the story until he does.  

Then there’s Julio Jones.. that worked out and ATL should have a title with him were it not for their own collapse.

I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

^^^^

This!  You don't use a lot of capital to trade up for a WR

[boyst]

4 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

That's 18 WR. Just under 4 yrs average per.  Skewed because some havent been in the league more than 4-5 yra but still. 

[DCofNC]

16 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

Ok, but WHY are they not signing a second contract, is it bc they cost too much?   Obviously, there are busts, but example, I know AJ Brown is on that list of didn’t re-sign. 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I'm not as high on Lamb as many are.

 

I love Jefferson and I like Aiyuk

 

Lamb is bonafide top5 in the league

[DCofNC]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm fine with a smaller trade-up for Brian Thomas, Jr, who I think has real stud potential. I realize there might be some risk, but he's a specimen who has produced. 

The guy definitely has the measurables, good production last year.  He’s the body type I want them to go get, I have only watched 1 game of him and some highlights, but he strikes me as a guy that could be really good too.  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, but WHY are they not signing a second contract, is it bc they cost too much?   Obviously, there are busts, but example, I know AJ Brown is on that list of didn’t re-sign. 

Correct 

 

Using second contract signed w same team that drafted them to evaluate WRs is not a great methodology

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I am old but looked up in Google and still couldnt come up with anything. What does the acronym OOF mean?

Here's the more technical definition of the acronym:

 

[Boatdrinks]

33 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

^^^^

This!  You don't use a lot of capital to trade up for a WR

This seals it. Clearly the Bills should move up to draft a C. 

[Green Lightning]

5 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Whiiiich is why I'd rather trade the first for him than trade up!

 

My preference in order:

1. Trade Down
2. Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone)
3. Stay put and draft BPA

In no circumstance to I trust Beane's ability to pick the right guy after trading the farm to move up, and I just don't think a guy like Thomas is worth it.

 

1. Trade Down (ehh, maybe)
2. Trade First for a proven WR (Aiyuk, Higgins, someone) Not happening. Beane wants younger and cheaper
3. Stay put and draft BPA 👍

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

here was the tweet i saw tompsett retweet

 

this is something

 

 

 

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss".  Take, for example, Edmunds.  Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him?  No.  Was it because he was a "miss"?  No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT.

 

And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit?  Do we?

 

 

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

There is a lot to pore through when it comes to this type of data.  I think a few things can be made clear

 

1 - Draft classes are not created equal across the board, but even more so at specific positions.  2021 for example didn't look to have much when it came to talent graded as 1st rounders across the board.  

2 - Teams overdraft for need.  "we need a big body" "we need speed" etc. Falling in love with a trait over a player.  

3 - It doesn't make sense to compare trends of where players are picked.  I'd more look at previous drafts as trying to get an understanding of how GM's move on the board.  You grade prospects every year against each other, but also against previous year players as well.  Like i don't care where Bateman was picked, what grade did we have on him and what did we see him as?  

4 - The big board where you grade prospects regardless of position is where you'd want to identify your own personal hit/miss rate.  Why did we grade basham over humphrey?  Did we even have them graded in that order?  Did we double down at End for a specific reason? Was it a reach?  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss".  Take, for example, Edmunds.  Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him?  No.  Was it because he was a "miss"?  No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT.

 

And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit?  Do we?

 

 

 

 

 

Tight end is a high "miss" spot - But there aren't a ton of huge busts.  Greg Olsen is considered a "miss" in this exercise, as are TJ hockenson and Evan Engram.  I also don't feel like going through all of it to determine who in the "hits" should be considered a miss.   It's also a position that has evolved considerably so probably not a great example, but i figured its one of the smallest numbers so easiest to find the discrepancies.  

 

Misses (didn't sign 2nd contract with team that drafted them) - 

OJ Howard

Hayden Hurst

Noah Fant - Traded before the 5th year option year to get a QB

TJ Hockenson - Traded because they didn't want to extend him because he was going to set the market at TE

Engram - Good example of the guy throwing you the ball making a difference

Ebron

Gresham

Keller

Olsen - Played like 15 years for Carolina

Watson

Winslow - Signed richest TE contract in history after trade

Graham

Stevens

Becht

 

Hits 

Njoku

Eifert

Pettigrew

Lewis

Davis

Miller

Clark

Shockey

Heap

Franks

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

This seals it. Clearly the Bills should move up to draft a C. 

Or be good enough in scouting to find the right guy for us that would be available at 28 or in the 2nd round. if they can't do that, then trade for someone.  You dont mortgage your future on a WR.