Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is not a position of need. Johnny Newton is a 3T. The Bills have one of their best players at 3T, they just paid him and he just had a career year. You can't line Newton up with Oliver in anything more than pure pass rush downs. And if they are going to spend a 1st round pick on a 3T and then force fit him into a 1T shaped hole.... well they deserve everything they get.

That's a good point but I think if they do draft him they'll have projections of him lining up at both DT and DE (on possible run downs) depending to get him in the field at least more than 50% of the snaps.  I'm not a fan of it but I think that's what they had in mind when they drafted Basham albeit he was primary a DE.  I just don't see them passing him up if he falls that far.  Too good of a player.

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, mannc said:

I know Johnston wasn’t their pick, but it’s too early to write him off, and I don’t see a Jim Harbaugh team taking a WR in round 1 two years in a row.  I think they trade back, take a tackle and then a WR later, probably on day 2.

I hope you’re right.  That would be a massive mistake imo.  

 

Im not writing Johnston off.  I just don’t think he will ever be a WR1.  He could be a nice player. WR1?  Not imo

[section122]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If the Chargers go into the season with what they currently have at receiver it will be without question the weakest receiver group in the NFL and not even close. I just can't see how they generate any offense at all with it. 

 

I get the Oline point but they have a left tackle. They also have a first round left guard. As much as I love Joe Alt are they really spending a third first round pick in four years on offensive line? 

 

I think anything other than pick the best receiver available to them is unspeakably dumb. It is by far the biggest roster need and it is where the genuine top 10 talent is in this draft. Talk about value matching need.

 

The other thing to throw into that mix of course is Arizona. If they trade back and the first four picks are QBs I am not sure where the callers are for a trade up. Maybe someone else calls to get up for MHJ. But if the Vikings and their two picks are off the board as a partner then what are the offers? Future picks? I mean maybe Harbaugh is happy to punt on 2024 somewhat... hard to know.

 

 

I agree with your last paragraph, if the draft goes as your mock I agree that the Chargers stay put and take MHJ.  As I posted earlier though I really feel that in the draft, Arizona takes MHJ.  Teams will be chomping at the bit trying to trade ahead of the Giants who I think could take a qb or at least perception is they may take a qb.  I don't know that Nabers or Odunze is worth turning away 2 firsts especially when the WR class is deep.  The Chargers could still get a very good wr prospect and bolster another position.  I think one of Odunze or Bowers is there at 11 still.  If it ends up being Bowers they can get someone like AD Mitchell at 23.  If neither are there Brian Thomas Jr certainly will be.  He fits the Chargers mold of large wr (although maybe that was just a Telesco thing).

 

I know I'm skipping around but to your 2nd paragraph yes I absolutely can see a team coached by Harbaugh and Greg Roman going with another first round lineman.  Maybe not at 5 but if they have an additional pick, certainly.  In hist stint with the 49ers they featured bookend first round picks and a first round og (none were his picks surprisingly).  I think I might be putting too much emphasis on the Roman hiring but he is just not a guy who prioritizes the passing game.  In his Bills and Ravens stints they each had terrible receiver groups but still had successful offenses.  I'm really interested to see what happens in LA as Herbert is the best passer he has worked with and not exactly a mobile guy they will be running the spread with.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I agree with your last paragraph, if the draft goes as your mock I agree that the Chargers stay put and take MHJ.  As I posted earlier though I really feel that in the draft, Arizona takes MHJ.  Teams will be chomping at the bit trying to trade ahead of the Giants who I think could take a qb or at least perception is they may take a qb.  I don't know that Nabers or Odunze is worth turning away 2 firsts especially when the WR class is deep.  The Chargers could still get a very good wr prospect and bolster another position.  I think one of Odunze or Bowers is there at 11 still.  If it ends up being Bowers they can get someone like AD Mitchell at 23.  If neither are there Brian Thomas Jr certainly will be.  He fits the Chargers mold of large wr (although maybe that was just a Telesco thing).

 

I know I'm skipping around but to your 2nd paragraph yes I absolutely can see a team coached by Harbaugh and Greg Roman going with another first round lineman.  Maybe not at 5 but if they have an additional pick, certainly.  In hist stint with the 49ers they featured bookend first round picks and a first round og (none were his picks surprisingly).  I think I might be putting too much emphasis on the Roman hiring but he is just not a guy who prioritizes the passing game.  In his Bills and Ravens stints they each had terrible receiver groups but still had successful offenses.  I'm really interested to see what happens in LA as Herbert is the best passer he has worked with and not exactly a mobile guy they will be running the spread with.

 

The Bills had Sammy, Woods, Harvin and Hogan with Roman. It wasn't elite but it wasn't exactly depleted. 

 

I just think the best players are receivers and the Chargers biggest need is receiver. Picking Joe Alt and then playing him right tackle would be bad value IMO. And Slater is very good. If I was the Charger GM I'd pick best WR available at #5 and if they don't I think it will be a significant error.

[gonzo1105]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills had Sammy, Woods, Harvin and Hogan with Roman. It wasn't elite but it wasn't exactly depleted. 

 

I just think the best players are receivers and the Chargers biggest need is receiver. Picking Joe Alt and then playing him right tackle would be bad value IMO. And Slater is very good. If I was the Charger GM I'd pick best WR available at #5 and if they don't I think it will be a significant error.

I know it’s an easy connection but I could see the Chargers trading down , taking Fashanu or staying put and taking Alt and turning around and taking Roman Wilson. 
 

I know that seems easy but that strikes me as a Harbaugh type draft. Get the line player who’s dominate and supplement with a blue collar tough WR 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I know it’s an easy connection but I could see the Chargers trading down , taking Fashanu or staying put and taking Alt and turning around and taking Roman Wilson. 
 

I know that seems easy but that strikes me as a Harbaugh type draft. Get the line player who’s dominate and supplement with a blue collar tough WR 

 

I really hope that is what they do.

[Norcalbillsfan]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is not a position of need. Johnny Newton is a 3T. The Bills have one of their best players at 3T, they just paid him and he just had a career year. You can't line Newton up with Oliver in anything more than pure pass rush downs. And if they are going to spend a 1st round pick on a 3T and then force fit him into a 1T shaped hole.... well they deserve everything they get.

I meant the 40% snaps that are available when Oliver is off the feild. The bills dl depth hasn't been great at coming in and making an impact especially behind Oliver. I won't pretend to know a ton about williams, he might be a great signing but he's on a 1 year.

 

Nothing wrong with going mitchell at all, I want weapons on offense, but if your telling me I could possibly get great/elite pass rush at 3t 100% of snaps (not too mention if Oliver ever got hurt) for the next few years I'd take it all day at 28.

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner, sort of random thought, but do you see any reasonable chance that either Ravens would want to jump the Lions or that 49ers would want to jump Ravens/Lions?

 

We just had local community moct draft with me as Bills GM and I managed to trade down with Ravens - picks 28 and 200 for 30 and 113. I risked almost nothing and got Legette. Ravens did it for Barton IIRC. I really liked it for Bills, pick 113 is a nice extra asset to move up in the 2nd.

 

Do you find this realistic in real life?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner, sort of random thought, but do you see any reasonable chance that either Ravens would want to jump the Lions or that 49ers would want to jump Ravens/Lions?

 

We just had local community moct draft with me as Bills GM and I managed to trade down with Ravens - picks 28 and 200 for 30 and 113. I risked almost nothing and got Legette. Ravens did it for Barton IIRC. I really liked it for Bills, pick 113 is a nice extra asset to move up in the 2nd.

 

Do you find this realistic in real life?

 

Yes. I think the Ravens, Lions, 49ers and KC are all possible OL teams. Especially it has started to thin out there....

[wppete]

Great stuff! Appreciate the work you put into this. Good work….. I love the Xavier Legette pick. I really hope we end up with him. 

[No_Matter_What]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. I think the Ravens, Lions, 49ers and KC are all possible OL teams. Especially it has started to thin out there....

Would be cool esp. if Bills are really targeting Legette or Franklin (I know you don't want him in the first but maybe the Bills do). Maybe to do 2 small trade down to make sure you don't fall too much and land a guy you want.

 

Fwiw, in our mock 49ers traded up with Eagles to get Mims, while the Chiefs were trying to do the same.

[stinky finger]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:46 AM, frostbitmic said:

I like the Mitchell pick to the Bills, at least he hasn't shrunk two inches like Franklin and Legette.

 

I see a lot of people that want Newton @28 but the Bills are already paying Oliver as the 3tech and drafting another 3tech in the first to play maybe 1/3 of snaps probably isn't the best idea. I think Newton will be long gone before #28 anyways.

I agree, he’ll be loooong gone.

 

If somehow he dropped and we took him, he’d play more than 1/3 the time. 

[frostbitmic]

13 hours ago, stinky finger said:

I agree, he’ll be loooong gone.

 

If somehow he dropped and we took him, he’d play more than 1/3 the time. 

I hope so, I wouldn't want to draft a player in the 1st to be a back up, and Oliver has the starting 3 tech job.

[GunnerBill]

Draft day is here so here is my third and final mock for 2024. This is the one I'll grade myself against. The last couple of years I've done pretty well so pressure's on! I was really tempted to break my golden rule of no trades in version 3.0 but I'm going to stick with it because otherwise you hamstring yourself too much by getting everything jumbled.

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

No need for analysis here. The Bears traded away Fields, they are going Quarterback and Williams is the best in the class. If he hits his ceiling he can be special.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

I confess this feels a bit like it could be Mac Jones to the 49ers where everyone believed it would happen then when the pick was announced it was Lance. Everything I am reading and hearing suggests this is Daniels. I'm sticking with that. But if Maye's name is read out it wouldn't amaze me.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The consensus took a while to form on what the Patriots would do here but I have always believed they have to stand pat and pick a Quarterback. If Maye went #2 this might be McCarthy, but I think if Maye is there they will select him.

 

4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison – Wide Receiver, Ohio State

I had the Cardinals moving down last time around for the Vikings to come up here and select McCarthy. If one of the presumed top 3 falls maybe Arizona can still be persuaded to move back for a pick bounty, but it feels for now like they will stay in this spot and select a receiver and most believe that will be Harrison. 

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

I've been dismissive of the Chargers taking a tackle most of the offseason and I have been particularly dismissive of the idea Latham is top 10 pick material (I don't have a first round grade on him). But in the last 24 hours that seems to be the direction things are going. Possibly after a trade back in reality but they want to plug the Crimson Tide prospect in a right tackle whereas they concluded Alt would need to play on the left.

 

6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington

The Giants moving up for a Quarterback is a possibility but if they can't then it will be a receiver at #6. That could be Nabers or Odunze but I am leaning towards them valuing the Washington product's more traditional #1 receiver style and there are one or two character whispers about Nabers too which might not be the guy to move to New York City. 

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

I have been pretty vocal on the Titans need at tackle. I thought they should have done more at the spot last offseason. This year is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. Atlanta Falcons – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

Since Terry Fontenot became the Falcons General Manager his first round selections have been Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson. If one of the top three receivers gets here he will have the chance to trade back and collect picks but maybe he just sticks to form and picks the best offensive playmaker on the board.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Bears drafted two defensive tackles on day two last year but neither gives them any pocket penetration in the middle of the line. Byron Murphy is definitely in the running to be the first defensive player off the board and would be a big upgrade for the Bears. 

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I have had Bowers here in both previous versions and I am sticking with it. But if Odunze slides past the Giants at #6 you better believe the Jets will be making calls. They have been fixed on Odunze and Bowers as offensive weaponry since spending capital on their offensive line in free agency.  

 

11. Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan

The story on the Vikings is that if one of the consensus top three quarterbacks makes it to #4 they would be willing to go big in a trade up. But if they don't they will try and wait on McCarthy because they are comfortable with at least one of the other options if he doesn't make it to them. In this no trade mock he does make it here and is the pick. 

 

12. Denver Broncos – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Broncos are a candidate to move back. They could also stay here and pick a Quarterback. But given that it appears the guy they like and the guy the Raiders at #13 like are not the same guy it gives them more flexibility at this spot. Their pass rush was anemic in 2023 and Turner's physical gifts would give them more pop off the edge.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Michael Penix – Quarterback, Washington

I've held off joining the Penix at #13 bandwagon for most of the offseason but in the last week I have come around to the idea. I have always liked him, he is the best pure pocket passer in this class to me, but I thought age and injuries would push him into day 2. It appears, however, that the Raiders are comfortable with his history and not willing to risk losing him by waiting. 

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. The Saints are definitely going tackle. I think it will be Fashanu who would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is likely to be the first corner off the board tonight.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

A lot of people seem to have pivoted to mocking a corner to the Seahawks with the word on the street being Mike MacDonald is not enamored with Tariq Woolen who struggled in year 2 after a good rookie campaign. I'm sticking with offensive line though and have Fautanu linking up again with his college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Kool-Aid McKinstry, Cornerback, Alabama

I am increasingly confident that corner is the direction the Jags are going in round 1. I think they'd probably like to slide back a few spots before making this selection but they are rumoured to have done a lot of work internally on McKinstry and see him as a scheme and character fit. 

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. Mims is a possibility here but Fuaga has met with the team multiple times so he is who I'm going with. 

 

19. Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

This isn't a pick that I'm mad about because something tells me the Rams would prefer to go offense here. I've seen Xavier Worthy mentioned and he is more their type than someone like a Brian Thomas. But the Rams are rumoured to have done a lot of work on edge guys and Latu falling here feels too good to pass up.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia

In recent days all the Pittsburgh insiders have been saying this pick is Graham Barton, the versatile offensive lineman out of Duke, who would solidify a troublesome center spot for the Steelers. But the phrase I try to remember is take notice in February, ignore in April. In February I heard that they were in love with Mims. He has the highest ceiling of any tackle in the class. 

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This pick will tell us a lot about who is actually holding the balance of power inside the Dolphins building. If it is still GM Chris Grier this pick will be trenches on either side of the ball. But I suspect it is Mike McDaniel and if he is making this pick then the image of him 'fangirling' around Worthy at the Texas pro day may be instructive.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Eagles corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry both began to look like they were declining last season. The secondary couldn't stop anyone. Arnold's ceiling and physical potential is off the charts and drafting high ceiling guys from the SEC is how Howie Roseman rolls.

 

23. Minnesota Vikings – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Early in the process Verse falling this far seemed pretty unthinkable but as this offensive line group in particular has continued to rise up boards it has resulted in some good defensive players sliding. Verse isn't a fast, bendy, pass rusher but he is a really well rounded, powerful defensive end with good hands and plenty of motor.

 

24. Dallas Cowboys  – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma State

Dallas needs to add to its offensive line and, while Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson could both be considerations at center, when they have taken guys in the first round they have tended to go for tackles and then work out later who plays where. Tyler Guyton is the sort of big, physical specimen that they like.

 

25. Green Bay Packers – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

This is possibly the most mocked pick of the entire draft season, and if he lasts this far he just makes too much sense for the Packers to pass up. They only ever draft defense or quarterback in round one and they love taking first round defensive backs. They lost Darnell Savage in free agency and traded away Rasul Douglas mid-season so they have possible holes at corner and safety.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency and they have had some misses with Logan Hall and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka not making much impact to this point in their careers but they did get good production out of third round rookie Yaya Diaby and adding Chop to play opposite him would them some freakish athleticism off the edge.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Graham Barton – Center, Duke

The Cardinals have last year's first rounder Paris Johnson and free agency acquisition Jonah Williams penciled in to start at tackle but they still need help inside. Graham Barton is an athletic, versatile lineman who can start at center or guard and get you out of a game at tackle should you require it.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Brian Thomas – Wide Receiver, LSU

It is possible that if Thomas starts to fall towards them the Bills might move up a few spots in round one for the third year running to snag their future WR1. Their need is pretty acute with the trade of Stefon Diggs and despite concerns about the health of his shoulder Thomas is a legitimate downfield weapon for Josh Allen.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

I slotted this in to version 2.0 as a bit of a punt knowing that the Lions are usually a team that find a way to extract value from the draft and Newton would be considered among the best players remaining. Since then he had a private workout with the team that I was told "could not have gone any better." I really like this match.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona

The Ravens lost traded away their right tackle Morgan Moses and lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. I think Morgan starts at tackle but even if that isn't his long term home he could excel at guard. This is another believe what you hear in February player to team match.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Whereas this is a trusting what I hear in April. In the last week I have heard two different sources connect Wiggins to the 49ers. The story seems to be that he has been high on GM John Lynch's list the entire process, what has changed is he now looks like he may make it to this sort of pick. 

 

32. Kansas City – Kingsley Suamataia – Offensive Tackle, BYU

I see this pick as wide receiver or offensive tackle for Kansas City. However, in this scenario where offensive tackles have flown off the board in front of them I wonder if they feel a sense of urgency to do something about the hole they have at left tackle. Third year player Wanya Morris is currently penciled in to start but in four starts in 2023 he relinquished 2 sacks and 24 pressures. That's no bueno. 

 

 

Okay there we are folks, the final mock of 2024 draft season. This is the one I'll score myself on tonight. Here's hoping!

[falgobofu]

I hope this is the case, Thomas is my best case scenario.....if not then Leggett is my second. Thank you for this every year, you are the man.

[mrags]

@GunnerBill man I hope you’re right and we end up with Thomas. Unfortunately at the cost of the Dolphins getting worthy and continuing to be a nightmare matchup for us at the WR position. Still, if we got a Thomas I’m ok with it. Let’s hope Dallas jumps ahead of Miami and is in love with Worthy as much as McDaniels is. 

And thanks for doing these. 

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Draft day is here so here is my third and final mock for 2024. This is the one I'll grade myself against. The last couple of years I've done pretty well so pressure's on! I was really tempted to break my golden rule of no trades in version 3.0 but I'm going to stick with it because otherwise you hamstring yourself too much by getting everything jumbled.

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

No need for analysis here. The Bears traded away Fields, they are going Quarterback and Williams is the best in the class. If he hits his ceiling he can be special.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

I confess this feels a bit like it could be Mac Jones to the 49ers where everyone believed it would happen then when the pick was announced it was Lance. Everything I am reading and hearing suggests this is Daniels. I'm sticking with that. But if Maye's name is read out it wouldn't amaze me.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The consensus took a while to form on what the Patriots would do here but I have always believed they have to stand pat and pick a Quarterback. If Maye went #2 this might be McCarthy, but I think if Maye is there they will select him.

 

4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison – Wide Receiver, Ohio State

I had the Cardinals moving down last time around for the Vikings to come up here and select McCarthy. If one of the presumed top 3 falls maybe Arizona can still be persuaded to move back for a pick bounty, but it feels for now like they will stay in this spot and select a receiver and most believe that will be Harrison. 

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

I've been dismissive of the Chargers taking a tackle most of the offseason and I have been particularly dismissive of the idea Latham is top 10 pick material (I don't have a first round grade on him). But in the last 24 hours that seems to be the direction things are going. Possibly after a trade back in reality but they want to plug the Crimson Tide prospect in a right tackle whereas they concluded Alt would need to play on the left.

 

6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington

The Giants moving up for a Quarterback is a possibility but if they can't then it will be a receiver at #6. That could be Nabers or Odunze but I am leaning towards them valuing the Washington product's more traditional #1 receiver style and there are one or two character whispers about Nabers too which might not be the guy to move to New York City. 

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

I have been pretty vocal on the Titans need at tackle. I thought they should have done more at the spot last offseason. This year is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. Atlanta Falcons – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

Since Terry Fontenot became the Falcons General Manager his first round selections have been Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson. If one of the top three receivers gets here he will have the chance to trade back and collect picks but maybe he just sticks to form and picks the best offensive playmaker on the board.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Bears drafted two defensive tackles on day two last year but neither gives them any pocket penetration in the middle of the line. Byron Murphy is definitely in the running to be the first defensive player off the board and would be a big upgrade for the Bears. 

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I have had Bowers here in both previous versions and I am sticking with it. But if Odunze slides past the Giants at #6 you better believe the Jets will be making calls. They have been fixed on Odunze and Bowers as offensive weaponry since spending capital on their offensive line in free agency.  

 

11. Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan

The story on the Vikings is that if one of the consensus top three quarterbacks makes it to #4 they would be willing to go big in a trade up. But if they don't they will try and wait on McCarthy because they are comfortable with at least one of the other options if he doesn't make it to them. In this no trade mock he does make it here and is the pick. 

 

12. Denver Broncos – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Broncos are a candidate to move back. They could also stay here and pick a Quarterback. But given that it appears the guy they like and the guy the Raiders at #13 like are not the same guy it gives them more flexibility at this spot. Their pass rush was anemic in 2023 and Turner's physical gifts would give them more pop off the edge.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Michael Penix – Quarterback, Washington

I've held off joining the Penix at #13 bandwagon for most of the offseason but in the last week I have come around to the idea. I have always liked him, he is the best pure pocket passer in this class to me, but I thought age and injuries would push him into day 2. It appears, however, that the Raiders are comfortable with his history and not willing to risk losing him by waiting. 

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. The Saints are definitely going tackle. I think it will be Fashanu who would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is likely to be the first corner off the board tonight.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

A lot of people seem to have pivoted to mocking a corner to the Seahawks with the word on the street being Mike MacDonald is not enamored with Tariq Woolen who struggled in year 2 after a good rookie campaign. I'm sticking with offensive line though and have Fautanu linking up again with his college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Kool-Aid McKinstry, Cornerback, Alabama

I am increasingly confident that corner is the direction the Jags are going in round 1. I think they'd probably like to slide back a few spots before making this selection but they are rumoured to have done a lot of work internally on McKinstry and see him as a scheme and character fit. 

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. Mims is a possibility here but Fuaga has met with the team multiple times so he is who I'm going with. 

 

19. Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

This isn't a pick that I'm mad about because something tells me the Rams would prefer to go offense here. I've seen Xavier Worthy mentioned and he is more their type than someone like a Brian Thomas. But the Rams are rumoured to have done a lot of work on edge guys and Latu falling here feels too good to pass up.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia

In recent days all the Pittsburgh insiders have been saying this pick is Graham Barton, the versatile offensive lineman out of Duke, who would solidify a troublesome center spot for the Steelers. But the phrase I try to remember is take notice in February, ignore in April. In February I heard that they were in love with Mims. He has the highest ceiling of any tackle in the class. 

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This pick will tell us a lot about who is actually holding the balance of power inside the Dolphins building. If it is still GM Chris Grier this pick will be trenches on either side of the ball. But I suspect it is Mike McDaniel and if he is making this pick then the image of him 'fangirling' around Worthy at the Texas pro day may be instructive.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Eagles corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry both began to look like they were declining last season. The secondary couldn't stop anyone. Arnold's ceiling and physical potential is off the charts and drafting high ceiling guys from the SEC is how Howie Roseman rolls.

 

23. Minnesota Vikings – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Early in the process Verse falling this far seemed pretty unthinkable but as this offensive line group in particular has continued to rise up boards it has resulted in some good defensive players sliding. Verse isn't a fast, bendy, pass rusher but he is a really well rounded, powerful defensive end with good hands and plenty of motor.

 

24. Dallas Cowboys  – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma State

Dallas needs to add to its offensive line and, while Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson could both be considerations at center, when they have taken guys in the first round they have tended to go for tackles and then work out later who plays where. Tyler Guyton is the sort of big, physical specimen that they like.

 

25. Green Bay Packers – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

This is possibly the most mocked pick of the entire draft season, and if he lasts this far he just makes too much sense for the Packers to pass up. They only ever draft defense or quarterback in round one and they love taking first round defensive backs. They lost Darnell Savage in free agency and traded away Rasul Douglas mid-season so they have possible holes at corner and safety.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency and they have had some misses with Logan Hall and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka not making much impact to this point in their careers but they did get good production out of third round rookie Yaya Diaby and adding Chop to play opposite him would them some freakish athleticism off the edge.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Graham Barton – Center, Duke

The Cardinals have last year's first rounder Paris Johnson and free agency acquisition Jonah Williams penciled in to start at tackle but they still need help inside. Graham Barton is an athletic, versatile lineman who can start at center or guard and get you out of a game at tackle should you require it.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Brian Thomas – Wide Receiver, LSU

It is possible that if Thomas starts to fall towards them the Bills might move up a few spots in round one for the third year running to snag their future WR1. Their need is pretty acute with the trade of Stefon Diggs and despite concerns about the health of his shoulder Thomas is a legitimate downfield weapon for Josh Allen.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

I slotted this in to version 2.0 as a bit of a punt knowing that the Lions are usually a team that find a way to extract value from the draft and Newton would be considered among the best players remaining. Since then he had a private workout with the team that I was told "could not have gone any better." I really like this match.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona

The Ravens lost traded away their right tackle Morgan Moses and lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. I think Morgan starts at tackle but even if that isn't his long term home he could excel at guard. This is another believe what you hear in February player to team match.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Whereas this is a trusting what I hear in April. In the last week I have heard two different sources connect Wiggins to the 49ers. The story seems to be that he has been high on GM John Lynch's list the entire process, what has changed is he now looks like he may make it to this sort of pick. 

 

32. Kansas City – Kingsley Suamataia – Offensive Tackle, BYU

I see this pick as wide receiver or offensive tackle for Kansas City. However, in this scenario where offensive tackles have flown off the board in front of them I wonder if they feel a sense of urgency to do something about the hole they have at left tackle. Third year player Wanya Morris is currently penciled in to start but in four starts in 2023 he relinquished 2 sacks and 24 pressures. That's no bueno. 

 

 

Okay there we are folks, the final mock of 2024 draft season. This is the one I'll score myself on tonight. Here's hoping!

Man it must really suck to be a Titans fan.

 

Every single mock draft has them taking Alt. There have been more mock drafts with Alt-Titans than Caleb-Bears over the last 3 months. And at least Caleb is a QB and they have pick 9.

 

The Titans have had 3 months of draft analysis beating them over the head. You are taking a ***** TACKLE and your QB is Will Levis next season. Painful.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Nice job!

[Ballhawk]

I'm surprised to see Odunze jump Nabers as recent trends have Nabers climbing. Guess we'll see, great job overall.

[Beast]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

@GunnerBill man I hope you’re right and we end up with Thomas. Unfortunately at the cost of the Dolphins getting worthy and continuing to be a nightmare matchup for us at the WR position. Still, if we got a Thomas I’m ok with it. Let’s hope Dallas jumps ahead of Miami and is in love with Worthy as much as McDaniels is. 

And thanks for doing these. 

Continuing nightmare matchup with the Dolphins? The Bills have absolutely dominated the Fish since Allen arrived. They have enough weapons. That isn’t Miami’s problem.

Edited Thursday at 04:08 PM by Beast

[MasterStrategist]

Great work @GunnerBill as always.  I've got one team connection, Steelers, and Mims is the guy from what im told.  

 

Re: Bills, im really hoping Worthy and Thomas are on the board at our pick.  At 28, or a small tradeup, to see who they truly value more.  

 

I am in the Worthy camp myself, and draft/sign another WR later.  Should be a fun night.  Thanks for all you've shared/work on draft prep

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

@GunnerBill man I hope you’re right and we end up with Thomas. Unfortunately at the cost of the Dolphins getting worthy and continuing to be a nightmare matchup for us at the WR position. Still, if we got a Thomas I’m ok with it. Let’s hope Dallas jumps ahead of Miami and is in love with Worthy as much as McDaniels is. 

And thanks for doing these. 

 

Considering who they have throwing the ball to them, I'm fine with the Dolphins staying on the WR hamster wheel.

[glazeduck]

@GunnerBill Bo Nix falls entirely out of the first round?!? No Troy Franklin??? I feel personally attacked.

[mrags]

46 minutes ago, Beast said:

Continuing nightmare matchup with the Dolphins? The Bills have absolutely dominated the Fish since Allen arrived. They have enough weapons. That isn’t Miami’s problem.

Hill has been a thorn in the Bills side like, forever 

27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Considering who they have throwing the ball to them, I'm fine with the Dolphins staying on the WR hamster wheel.

This I don’t disagree with.  It that might always be the case. As far as we know Tua hasn’t signed yet. 

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

@GunnerBill Bo Nix falls entirely out of the first round?!? No Troy Franklin??? I feel personally attacked.

 

I think good chance the Broncos do find a way to trade back and then either they take Nix with that pick or the get a 2nd rounder (currently don't) and take him with that tomorrow.

[glazeduck]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I think good chance the Broncos do find a way to trade back and then either they take Nix with that pick or the get a 2nd rounder (currently don't) and take him with that tomorrow.

Yeah his age and early career makes him a tougher e v a l. I think he and Penix are a lot closer that top-15 and out of the first rd., but we'll see! 

[LEBills]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think good chance the Broncos do find a way to trade back and then either they take Nix with that pick or the get a 2nd rounder (currently don't) and take him with that tomorrow.

Albright and DJ both have them trading back with the Eagles for basically the same compensation which includes a second. 
 

Albright thinks they’ll take Nix in rd 2. DJ had them taking Nix after the trade back

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Any GM who takes Bo Nix in the 1st round should be fired before he even makes that call.

[Cray51]

@GunnerBill great job as always - any idea why WR has gone from "We may see 7 receivers in the first round" to only 5?  Mitchell/Legette/Franklin/McConkey all not being selected in the first.  Does that say more about the concerns of the talent, or the addressing of other needs by teams?

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Albright and DJ both have them trading back with the Eagles for basically the same compensation which includes a second. 
 

Albright thinks they’ll take Nix in rd 2. DJ had them taking Nix after the trade back

 

 

 

Yea both possibilities make sense to me.

1 minute ago, Cray51 said:

@GunnerBill great job as always - any idea why WR has gone from "We may see 7 receivers in the first round" to only 5?  Mitchell/Legette/Franklin/McConkey all not being selected in the first.  Does that say more about the concerns of the talent, or the addressing of other needs by teams?

 

I think it says something about needs - it also says a lot about the strength at the top of this OL group IMO. As I said in my analysis post today I have 8 tackles in my top 40 players plus two interior guys in Barton and JPJ.

[Big Blitz]

1 minute ago, Cray51 said:

@GunnerBill great job as always - any idea why WR has gone from "We may see 7 receivers in the first round" to only 5?  Mitchell/Legette/Franklin/McConkey all not being selected in the first.  Does that say more about the concerns of the talent, or the addressing of other needs by teams?

 

I can see this happening bc of the depth at the position and the debate after the top 3. 
 

Wouldn’t surprise me at all.  
 

 

 

Btw….

 

Eric Wood was drafted 28th overall just sayin….

 

*ducks*

[LeGOATski]

42 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

I can see this happening bc of the depth at the position and the debate after the top 3. 
 

Wouldn’t surprise me at all.  
 

 

 

Btw….

 

Eric Wood was drafted 28th overall just sayin….

 

*ducks*

I think the Bills go OL with that first pick and I'm all for it

[Big Blitz]

People under appreciate what Torrence did for this Oline and running game.  Him next to Brown total maulers in the run game - Brown was solid all around playing next to a rookie.  
 

Still don’t understand why we want to tweak too much when we can draft C1 and add to that - we could realistically field 4 all pros on the Oline if Center 1 in the draft comes in and is elite.  
 

 

My ideal draft is WR RD 1 then trading up in RD 2 to get Frazier.

 

The league is swinging back to being able to run the ball.  Not as a feature but as a cheat code against small fast defenses. 

If Barton fell - there’s your LG.  That’s an intriguing option to.  

[TheWeatherMan]

Giants are drafting a QB that to me is a sure bet.  Daniel Jones is not him and Daboll wants to keep his job 

[OldTimer1960]

Awesome job Gunner!  
 

Do you see the diabetes or concerns about effort/coachability as the reason AD Mitchell isn’t in round 1?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Awesome job Gunner!  
 

Do you see the diabetes or concerns about effort/coachability as the reason AD Mitchell isn’t in round 1?

 

Yea. I considered him there at 32. He could sneak in. But he is a 50/50 shot to be a round 1 pick at this point IMO.