2024 concerns at Saftey and Defensive Gloom and Doom

[Lenigmusx]

     It’s an unfortunate reality that Poyer and Hyde are done. They empty their tanks in Bills Red, White and Blue. I think Hyde will retire. Poyer I’m not sure yet. 
 

That said I think the plan for next year may already be laid out with some personnel we have and a free agent acquisition. I think Rapp with be resigned and I think the improvements in Cam Lewis and a fully recovered Damar Hamlin can provide the necessary depth. I think Lewis although listed as a corner  could move into Poyer role. It will be a downgrade from 2 years ago but a sideways move from last year. 
 

    There are not many good free agents I think we could target but I do think Alohi Gilman from the Chargers could be there for the taking. He is a very good cover Saftey who is used to running the back end. He fits McDermott’s scheme and could replace Hyde and maybe provide the back end speed we lacked last year.
 

     I also think a healthy Benford, Douglas, Johnson, White, Jackson, Elam and Neal mean  maybe shifting Elam to Saftey or one of the others could work. Neal has played Saftey but him seeing the field on D has been a scary proposition. 
 

I also think a couple mid round picks that will hopefully contribute are necessary at both Corner, Saftey, LB and 1 Tech DT. 
 

The gloom and doom over the defense though I think is overblown. If it looked like this to start it would be solid, if not still top 10: 

 
(27 players 2 or 3 on PS) 

 

        Floyd    Jones   Oliver  Rousseau 

     (Lawson) (Settle) (Anjou) (Miller)    (Johnathan)(Draft-1 tech)

 

                 Milano       Bernard 

              (Williams)    (Spector)

                (Draft)
 

Benford          Johnson          Douglas 

(White)             (Neal)            (Jackson)

                         (Draft)
 

     FA-   Gilman               Rapp

             (Hamlin)            (Lewis) 

                                       (Draft) 

[Shaw66]

Floyd said he's going to the highest bidder, and Jones might two, so there are a couple of big holes for you to fill.  

[SirAndrew]

I’m not worried about defense at all. I like McDermott’s defensive scheme, but ultimately the NFL comes down to outscoring opponents. Quit the ball control offense, trust the defense to do just enough, and play ball. Defense has been legislated out of the game. If you have enough guys to make a few big plays, that’s all you can ask on defense. We have that with players like Milano and Douglas returning. 

[BuffaloBill]

McDermott is a CB and S whisperer.  I am not concerned there.

 

Assuming Babich returns the middle of the D is set for LB’s.  

 

It’s the d line that requires some hope.  The Bills will have to look to the draft and maybe one bargain but good FA (Floyd was this).

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

36 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

     It’s an unfortunate reality that Poyer and Hyde are done. They empty their tanks in Bills Red, White and Blue. I think Hyde will retire. Poyer I’m not sure yet. 
 

That said I think the plan for next year may already be laid out with some personnel we have and a free agent acquisition. I think Rapp with be resigned and I think the improvements in Cam Lewis and a fully recovered Damar Hamlin can provide the necessary depth. I think Lewis although listed as a corner  could move into Poyer role. It will be a downgrade from 2 years ago but a sideways move from last year. 
 

    There are not many good free agents I think we could target but I do think Alohi Gilman from the Chargers could be there for the taking. He is a very good cover Saftey who is used to running the back end. He fits McDermott’s scheme and could replace Hyde and maybe provide the back end speed we lacked last year.
 

     I also think a healthy Benford, Douglas, Johnson, White, Jackson, Elam and Neal mean  maybe shifting Elam to Saftey or one of the others could work. Neal has played Saftey but him seeing the field on D has been a scary proposition. 
 

I also think a couple mid round picks that will hopefully contribute are necessary at both Corner, Saftey, LB and 1 Tech DT. 
 

The gloom and doom over the defense though I think is overblown. If it looked like this to start it would be solid, if not still top 10: 

 
(27 players 2 or 3 on PS) 

 

        Floyd    Jones   Oliver  Rousseau 

     (Lawson) (Settle) (Anjou) (Miller)    (Johnathan)(Draft-1 tech)

 

                 Milano       Bernard 

              (Williams)    (Spector)

                (Draft)
 

Benford          Johnson          Douglas 

(White)             (Neal)            (Jackson)

                         (Draft)
 

     FA-   Gilman               Rapp

             (Hamlin)            (Lewis) 

                                       (Draft) 

Until we move on from Poyer, he’s still here for 1 more year.  We may keep him out of necessity as we have other needs in the draft and we have no $ whatsoever for free agents.

[SCBills]

I honestly don’t care about these guys who perform in the regular season and no show in the playoffs.

 

Its not like we’ve been remotely close to securing the 1 seed anyway. 
 

Keep tinkering until you finally get a group that doesn’t fold in the years biggest game or just try to outscore everyone in the playoffs and hope your Defensive HC can out-perform the opposing DC just once. 
 

 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Hyde and Poyer dropped off significantly this year and I'm confident that Beane and Mcdermott can find suitable replacements.  With the addition of Rasul Douglas, I think it could be Benford and a rookie at safety.

[TheBeaneBandit]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

McDermott is a CB and S whisperer.  I am not concerned there.

 

Assuming Babich returns the middle of the D is set for LB’s.  

 

It’s the d line that requires some hope.  The Bills will have to look to the draft and maybe one bargain but good FA (Floyd was this).

 

 

Yeah if you mean by whispering to the DBS come up short in the playoffs every year sure

[Don Otreply]

Frankly, as long as they bring on a #1b WR that is a bonafide threat/weapon for the offense, they can do what the hell ever they want to do on defense, jmo. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Jackson is a FA, so much better chance the main CB;s for next year will be Douglas, Benford, and Elam plus Johnson at nickel (is he also a FA??)  Throw in a rookie and/or a low level late signee FA. Only way Jackson comes back is either there's little interest for him or the Bills have zero confidence in Elam.  Which is that's the case, likely would see him traded pre draft for maybe a 5th or 6th rounder.  But with such a likely low return, think much better chance they will bring him back for another year.

 

Hyde is a FA hinted at retiring so I'd be fine moving on there, but bring back Poyer for one year as would make me nervous having two new S in one year.  And would be fine with the name you mention Gilman as Hydes replacement, then draft i n3rd round or so a replacement for 2025 for Poyer.

 

But the bigger concern is the DL and doubtful all those names are back as many are FA and Bills can't afford them all.

[djp14150]

59 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

     It’s an unfortunate reality that Poyer and Hyde are done. They empty their tanks in Bills Red, White and Blue. I think Hyde will retire. Poyer I’m not sure yet. 
 

That said I think the plan for next year may already be laid out with some personnel we have and a free agent acquisition. I think Rapp with be resigned and I think the improvements in Cam Lewis and a fully recovered Damar Hamlin can provide the necessary depth. I think Lewis although listed as a corner  could move into Poyer role. It will be a downgrade from 2 years ago but a sideways move from last year. 
 

    There are not many good free agents I think we could target but I do think Alohi Gilman from the Chargers could be there for the taking. He is a very good cover Saftey who is used to running the back end. He fits McDermott’s scheme and could replace Hyde and maybe provide the back end speed we lacked last year.
 

     I also think a healthy Benford, Douglas, Johnson, White, Jackson, Elam and Neal mean  maybe shifting Elam to Saftey or one of the others could work. Neal has played Saftey but him seeing the field on D has been a scary proposition. 
 

I also think a couple mid round picks that will hopefully contribute are necessary at both Corner, Saftey, LB and 1 Tech DT. 
 

The gloom and doom over the defense though I think is overblown. If it looked like this to start it would be solid, if not still top 10: 

 
(27 players 2 or 3 on PS) 

 

        Floyd    Jones   Oliver  Rousseau 

     (Lawson) (Settle) (Anjou) (Miller)    (Johnathan)(Draft-1 tech)

 

                 Milano       Bernard 

              (Williams)    (Spector)

                (Draft)
 

Benford          Johnson          Douglas 

(White)             (Neal)            (Jackson)

                         (Draft)
 

     FA-   Gilman               Rapp

             (Hamlin)            (Lewis) 

                                       (Draft) 

 

assuming Hyde/ Poyer are done….

 

if they keep Douglas and Johnson  with Branford, Elam, tre they are fine at CB

sone of the CBs can move to FS

they draft a SS or a lighter LB with speed eho can play in a SS role covering TEs and join in runnsupport

 

i look at the D being a 4-2-5 with Milano, Bernard, and recent drafted players playing LBs. If you have that hybrid…at DB..both Johnson snd tre have bern strong in blitzing/ run support. They could look at it as straight CBs in DB roles with a converted LB fir TE/ run support.

 

I see their  drafting….

 

1&2 — I think a WR with speed ( not a slot) or it could be hybrid TE with size/ speed where they could use Kincaid as a #2. And the other pick would be a DL 

expect a late 3rd comp pick—I think they trade up using a 5 th and 6th

4th, 2 5th 3 6th, 7th 

with 4 latter picks would be—(1)  CB/S/ LB to SS player (2) interior OL, (3) TE, (4) depending on what thr pick high DE/DT, they take the other 

 

of course free agent signings and losses change things.

 

I think they will attract some cheap free agents who want to prove themselves and get bigger exposure  With Buffalo being a high profile team getting 10+ games on national tv/ primary game they do well and then cash in on a bigger contract.

 

Candidate  games next year for 

espn/ nbc/ lone or clear A game 425 — SF, KC, at DET, at Rams, at SEA , at balt , home Miami game, at jets game,NE game , one of hou/ Indy/ JAX

Thursday game would be  either one of AFC south, at jets, or they do a single west trip where they play at rams and at seattle on consecutive weeks with one being on Thursday night likely rams.

 

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

I think the doom and gloom is over McDermott’s return. At least for me. In terms of defensive holes, they will figure it out. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Just now, Buffalo619 said:

We need to get bigger to avoid injuries. Find a mlb who won’t miss games every year. 

Bernard is going to be the mike for a while. They went out of their way to praise him. Linebacker is the last place they will look to upgrade, aside from depth adds. 

[Lenigmusx]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

I’m not worried about defense at all. I like McDermott’s defensive scheme, but ultimately the NFL comes down to outscoring opponents. Quit the ball control offense, trust the defense to do just enough, and play ball. Defense has been legislated out of the game. If you have enough guys to make a few big plays, that’s all you can ask on defense. We have that with players like Milano and Douglas returning. 

I think the Ravens are a stark contrast to this thought process. You are correct about 95% of the NFL but the Ravens and Niners definitely still place high emphasis on stifling defense. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Allen2Diggs said:

Hyde and Poyer dropped off significantly this year and I'm confident that Beane and Mcdermott can find suitable replacements.  With the addition of Rasul Douglas, I think it could be Benford and a rookie at safety.

I was a huge “Benford at safety” guy right when we drafted him.

 

Now I am not so sure.
 

He seems great at corner. He also gets dinged up a lot, so I am concerned about him playing safety and probably having to play in the box more. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

I’m not worried about defense at all. I like McDermott’s defensive scheme, but ultimately the NFL comes down to outscoring opponents. Quit the ball control offense, trust the defense to do just enough, and play ball. Defense has been legislated out of the game. If you have enough guys to make a few big plays, that’s all you can ask on defense. We have that with players like Milano and Douglas returning. 

I totally agree but to go all in on offense will require something McDermott is not willing to do. It's easier for him to keep throwing darts at defensive draft picks and tell Josh to do it all.  If we lose both Floyd and Jones our DL will be ass. 

[Lenigmusx]

57 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Jackson is a FA, so much better chance the main CB;s for next year will be Douglas, Benford, and Elam plus Johnson at nickel (is he also a FA??)  Throw in a rookie and/or a low level late signee FA. Only way Jackson comes back is either there's little interest for him or the Bills have zero confidence in Elam.  Which is that's the case, likely would see him traded pre draft for maybe a 5th or 6th rounder.  But with such a likely low return, think much better chance they will bring him back for another year.

 

Hyde is a FA hinted at retiring so I'd be fine moving on there, but bring back Poyer for one year as would make me nervous having two new S in one year.  And would be fine with the name you mention Gilman as Hydes replacement, then draft i n3rd round or so a replacement for 2025 for Poyer.

 

But the bigger concern is the DL and doubtful all those names are back as many are FA and Bills can't afford them all.

I thought Settle and Jones were under contract for one more year… I was mistaken. So the DL revamp is bigger than I thought. I figured they would re-up one good DL that being Floyd. 
 

so I guess the D line starts here:

 

Johnathan  Anjou     Oliver    Rousseau  (Draft FA) (Draft FA) (Draft FA) (Miller)

 

rough indeed…. 

[SirAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

I think the Ravens are a stark contrast to this thought process. You are correct about 95% of the NFL but the Ravens and Niners definitely still place high emphasis on stifling defense. 

You have a good point, but I’m not convinced that much separates the best defensive teams from the average ones. Those teams have good defenses, but they also have dynamic offense. We’re never going to see the 85 Bears or Dilfer Ravens again. The Ravens have Jackson, while SF has a dynamic offensive coach along with good receivers and CMC. I’m not about to call the Ravens or 49ers defense overrated, but sometimes the best defense is a good offense. Those teams invested in their offense, particularly the 49ers with hiring Shanahan. One player like Bosa makes a huge impact on defense. The problem is the difficulty in finding a guy like Bosa. The Lions have the same luxury with Hutchinson. Those guys are game changers, making the entire defense look better. 

[Toledo Bill]

16 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

I thought Settle and Jones were under contract for one more year… I was mistaken. So the DL revamp is bigger than I thought. I figured they would re-up one good DL that being Floyd. 
 

so I guess the D line starts here:

 

Johnathan  Anjou     Oliver    Rousseau  (Draft FA) (Draft FA) (Draft FA) (Miller)

 

rough indeed…. 

I think Jones is the most important defensive signing. I see teams running roughshod over our defense without him.

[noacls]

2 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

Hyde and Poyer dropped off significantly this year and I'm confident that Beane and Mcdermott can find suitable replacements.  With the addition of Rasul Douglas, I think it could be Benford and a rookie at safety.

They are not moving their number 1 CB to safety nor are they moving one of the best young CBs in the league to safety. 

[frostbitmic]

Judging by the looks of this, two guys accounting for about 35 million against the cap will be riding the pine. They can't do anything about Miller but I fully expect Tre' White to be let go.

 

FA's - Hyde,  Floyd, Jones, Lawson, Settle, Ankou, Jackson, Hamlin, Rapp, Lewis, Dodson ... Almost half the Defense are Free Agents. Beane is going to be very busy and he's going to have to get very creative.

[Lenigmusx]

On 1/27/2024 at 2:01 PM, SirAndrew said:

You have a good point, but I’m not convinced that much separates the best defensive teams from the average ones. Those teams have good defenses, but they also have dynamic offense. We’re never going to see the 85 Bears or Dilfer Ravens again. The Ravens have Jackson, while SF has a dynamic offensive coach along with good receivers and CMC. I’m not about to call the Ravens or 49ers defense overrated, but sometimes the best defense is a good offense. Those teams invested in their offense, particularly the 49ers with hiring Shanahan. One player like Bosa makes a huge impact on defense. The problem is the difficulty in finding a guy like Bosa. The Lions have the same luxury with Hutchinson. Those guys are game changers, making the entire defense look better. 

It’s actually similar to the 90’s Bills teams with Bruce and Biscuit. Great Offense, bend but don’t break opportunistic defense. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I mean there is certainly work to be done on the defense. But I do agree that there is a reason for optimism.

 

CB we are a bit thin, but Rasul Douglas and Benford are not a bad one two punch. Taron Johnson is likely to be back. Tre White is currently an unknown. While a lot of the board is on the "kick 'em to the curb, maybe with cab fare" Cover One thinks he'll be back.

 

Safety is troubling. Poyer looks out of gas, even if we keep him for one more season, so it's a problem we should work on now. Greg Thompsett's recap reminded me that in 2022 there was noise about putting Benford in at safety, and if Tre is fully ready to go, why not have him work a hybrid role? Also, if there is a position that gets underpaid in FA, safety is top 3 in my mind so I think there is value to be had. I expect to sign one, draft one and roll out next year with Poyer gone.

 

Linebacker? For what I thought was my biggest nightmare at the start of 23 had shockingly good depth. We just went through it all. Milano and Bernard I have complete confidence to start and we have backups who can hold down the fort.

 

D-line? Thin, but we are going to PAY Von Miller. Groot is back. Oliver actually outplayed a brand new contract. We are thin at DT3, but again that a bargain shopping FA venture and I think we retain DaQuan and/or Epenesa.

 

While I think WR is out #1 priority in the draft, I am expecting a youth movement on the defense his year.

[Pete]

On 1/27/2024 at 11:29 AM, Shaw66 said:

Floyd said he's going to the highest bidder, and Jones might two, so there are a couple of big holes for you to fill.  

Did DaQuan say that?  Or are you putting words in Jones mouth?  Jones is 31, coming injury, and a local.  Jones is returning IMO

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Pete said:

Did DaQuan say that?  Or are you putting words in Jones mouth?  Jones is 31, coming injury, and a local.  Jones is returning IMO

I traffic it somewhere.  It may not be accurate.  

[GimmeSomeProcess]

I think Daquan is back without a doubt. That way, they can say at least they have a starting d line going in. I want Poyer gone. He’s not the same player, we need some younger guys with juice. IMO we target safety in Free Agency.
 

Can get some younger guys there at a cost much cheaper than d line or wr. Then the draft is wr and dline early. I except two burners at wr and us trading a pick to move up. In all, we should see 9 draft picks with defense being taken with 9 of them

 

[colin]

joe marino had a lil breakdown of bean's 2023 offseason, was graded pretty well.

 

we basically got lots of cheap FAs to contribute, and the people we let go weren't people we needed/missed.

 

our players who will be exiting (with maybe the exception of floyd and aj, but they fell off so hard late and got hurt that it brings down their over all value imo) don't seem far above replacement, and were ghosts or hurt come the kc game.

 

i think we can get similar and if a rookie or someone steps up large perhaps better results with scrap heap guys this offseason too.

 

big resources/dollars should go towards wr on O, and true impact players on D.  a cagey safety running a 4.6 who doesn't make big plays is not where we need our cap or picks going.  LB and CB seem pretty set (even if we ditch white, who's been barely more than zero for 3 years now), dl and safety are what we need, but i think we can draft bodies and sign a guy here and there on the cheap.

[Drew21PA]

Just no to Elam please ….

[Bruffalo]

Poyer and Hyde were both budget guys who hadn't done much in their careers until they got to Buffalo.  

 

I have no doubt they'll figure it out. 

[GASabresIUFan]

The Bills off-season is a 4 step process

1) Fixing the cap - the Bills need to reduce their cap by 60-70 million (or more) to sign their draft picks and any FAs.  

When I look at the Bills, I see 30 players I'm pretty certain will be here next season.  That list includes Poyer, Morse, and Martin, who I can see being cut, but I think restructuring is more likely.  These 30 players plus dead cap currently cost $261+ million.  My cap casualties include White, Gilliam, Harty, Hines, and Neal.

 

2) Typically Step 2 is retaining key FAs like Jones, Floyd, Epenesa, and Dodson.  However, right now, I don't see the Bills having any money to retain any of the players listed.  All will demand (and have earned) bigger $ than the Bills can afford. 

 

3) Finding replacements for key positions in the draft or FAs.  Right now the key losses look to be at S (Hyde, Rapp), WR (Davis), and D Line (Floyd, Jones, Epenesa). Dodson is also a loss, but I suspect the Bills won't replace him. Instead, they'll rely on the development of Spector and Williams.  I believe the replacements for Jones, Hyde, and Davis will come from their early picks in the draft.  The rest will come from cheap gambles on FAs like Beane did with Rapp and Floyd last year.  

 

4) Completing organizational depth.  The Bills are going to need backups at QB, RB (I'd like to see Ty Johnson return), more depth along the D Line, more WR depth, and additional safeties.  With 10 picks (7 in rounds 4-7) in the draft and the Bills need to get younger, I suspect much of this depth to come from these players.  I think we'll see a RB, a 2nd WR, a DB or two, and at least one Edge guy drafted.  I also suspect, given our cap issues, that the Bills will sign a large group of UDFAs.  They have already signed 15 guys to future/reserve contracts.   

 

[Freddie's Dead]

Who's Saftey?

Edited January 30 by Freddie's Dead

[Bill51390]

5 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Who's Saftey?

Whoever we draft. Someone probably in rounds 3 or 4. 

[Sestak4ever]

I feel comfortable with our defense and I believe this front office will fill positions of need with very capable replacements. Some of our players entering their second season should improve to the point that there won’t be as big a drop off when they enter the game. I also think if Bernard and Milano played against KC that we would have won that game.

[RyanC883]

KC redid their D and OL. We can redo the secondary.  One thing that McD is very good at is DB coaching.  (also keep Babbich, he is also great here and for Lb).  No need for doom and gloom here.  A good draft pick, Rapp, FA and we are set.  I think we keep Poyer another year also, whether we should is a question. 

14 minutes ago, Bill51390 said:

Whoever we draft. Someone probably in rounds 3 or 4. 

 

some ppl to watch are Kinchens from U Miami (Fla) in Rd 1-2, and the safeties from U of Minnesota and USC. 

4 hours ago, Lenigmusx said:

It’s actually similar to the 90’s Bills teams with Bruce and Biscuit. Great Offense, bend but don’t break opportunistic defense. 

 

we just need a Bruce!   We also have a better secondary than those teams IMO.   

[SoonerBillsFan]

For any McDermott faults, he has proven he can take 4th rounders and below and turn them into a damn good secondary.  So starting with our 4th rounders through 7th I say load up, DT (Prefer an NT and go to a 3-4 with our linebackers) and grab 3-4 DB's then more linemen.  But 1st -3rd need to be to empower this offense.