Josh made the right call to go for the TD

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

All the quibbling about whether or not pocket protection, vs Josh sliding...

 

You know what avoids all that? Throwing the ball to your wide open WR1 on a crossing route.

[BillsFanSD]

I wonder if other fanbases have to deal with stuff like this, or it's just a Josh Allen thing.

 

I mean, obviously it was fine to target the guy breaking open in the end zone.  Allen makes that throw 9 out of 10 times if Dawkins holds his block just slightly better.  People who complain about this are demonstrating either (a) very low football IQ or (b) a willingness to say stupid stuff just to get engagement.

[Neo]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

lol, no it wasn't. Josh scores a TD there and we lose. Mahomes beat us with 13 seconds and a far stronger defense.  He would have had a 1:45 and a pile of timeouts. There would just be a different person to blame. The right play there was to wind the clock down as far as possible and get the TD with under 30 seconds or tie it with a FG as time expires

I agree …  if you get the opening kickoff, the best series is a thirty minute drive scoring a TD on the last play of the half.  Then, no matter what happens on the opponent’s first drive of the second half, you take the kickoff and bleed the entire second half down to one play.  If the opponent scored a TD on their opening drive, you either score a TD or a FG to win.  If the opponent failed to score on their drive, you take a knee and win.

 

You should always pass on scoring TDs and instead bleed the clock to the end because nothing ever happens to end a drive.

 

Edited January 25 by Neo

[london_bills]

5 hours ago, Success said:

I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play.  It was THERE.  I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.

 

As though you can script something like that perfectly.  Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone.  Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it.  And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.

 

I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters?  The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.

 

And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard.  It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.

 

I got the play mixed up with the 3rd down one. In hindsight this was fair enough to go for, it was more the 3rd down decision I had a problem with 

[JoshAllin]

KC just outplayed em in the 2nd and 9. KC knew a first down would pretty much be game so they may have let that TD get open so they could drive it in and score themselves with little time left for bills. They missed then 3rd and 9 happened and that changes thing for KC

Edited January 25 by motorj

[Pokebball]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Only losers think and play like that. Put KC in our shoes and they run the clock down to nothing and win as football 101 strategy dictates you should. It's not like Josh doesn't have a career's worth of these mental mistakes already to look back on.

I know it would have been nice to say we had the lead and blame the defense when they couldn't hold. But we all should know based on how they played that they wouldn't hold. KC had one punt all game. The offense was our strength, like it or not. That's what you bet on.

watch the play again. He didn't get hit until after the ball was gone.

That's an extremely common ask that any championship coach would ask of his QB. This isn't the 80s or even the 90s anymore. If you want to be called elite, you have to be able to score at will in the redzone.

Only losers disagree with you? 

[theAteam]

I've accepted the 2nd down throw was the correct play. I do wish he had gone to Shakir on 3rd down. He would have still needed 2-3 yards but we've seen Shakir make magic happen before and his defender had turned his hips to the inside already when the window to throw was there. At the very least you've got 4th and 2 or 3, you can make the decision then whether you want to kick or not. It makes a 44 yard FG into like a 37 yarder and more importantly it would have put Bass on the left hash where he is considerably more comfortable. Maybe he still misses but it's a better setup than what they gave him.

Edited January 25 by theAteam

[Pokebball]

29 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

All the quibbling about whether or not pocket protection, vs Josh sliding...

 

You know what avoids all that? Throwing the ball to your wide open WR1 on a crossing route.

And it was caught, and Diggs got the YAC for the first down, and....

[Repulsif]

If that pass is completed, half the fanbase know Mahomes would march down the field for an easy TD, giving the Bills 13seconds left with no Time Out. It was all written on the wall !

At least we escaped that infamy 😓

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

11 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

And it was caught, and Diggs got the YAC for the first down, and....

In this hypothetical scenario? The Bills have 1st and 10 inside the 20, or a 1st and goal. The Clock runs to ~1:20 or the Chiefs burn a timeout.

 

Now who knows from there. But Bass has 10+ yards lopped off a FG attempt. Josh has 3 more chances to gun it.

 

But in this scenario, even if Josh throws it in the dirt three times a higher success chance for Bass and less time on the clock/KC timeouts reduces the odds of a KC kill stroke before OT. Which is better than what he happened even if Bass had made it.

 

How is this difficult for people to understand? 

[Success]

46 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

I wonder if other fanbases have to deal with stuff like this, or it's just a Josh Allen thing.

 

I mean, obviously it was fine to target the guy breaking open in the end zone.  Allen makes that throw 9 out of 10 times if Dawkins holds his block just slightly better.  People who complain about this are demonstrating either (a) very low football IQ or (b) a willingness to say stupid stuff just to get engagement.

 

Well put.

 

That's the mystifying thing to me.  I just don't see single plays dissected like this for other QB's, unless they're massive mistakes or turnovers.

 

[Nextmanup]

wrong!

[Pokebball]

33 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

In this hypothetical scenario? The Bills have 1st and 10 inside the 20, or a 1st and goal. The Clock runs to ~1:20 or the Chiefs burn a timeout.

 

Now who knows from there. But Bass has 10+ yards lopped off a FG attempt. Josh has 3 more chances to gun it.

 

But in this scenario, even if Josh throws it in the dirt three times a higher success chance for Bass and less time on the clock/KC timeouts reduces the odds of a KC kill stroke before OT. Which is better than what he happened even if Bass had made it.

 

How is this difficult for people to understand? 

Perfectly awesome, except we're not

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Love JA to death but he can get too confident sometimes. This is one of them. 

 

You know it wasn't his decision, right? He is following progressions. Diggs is clearly like 3rd in the progression. Shakir is 1st and they got the exact coverage (cover 2) that they wanted to throw the TD.

 

If people want to criticize Brady for being too aggressive with the play call I guess that's a conversation we can have... But it's patently ridiculous that we're asking the offense to thread an impossible needle of scoring a TD with just the right amount of time on the clock, all because we don't trust our head coach's defense to make a stop. I place the blame for that problem where it belongs.

 

A lot of people are to blame for this loss. Allen, Brady, and Shakir are the exceptions.

[Success]

19 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

wrong!

 

So, you don't think a QB should go for a TD when it's open?

 

[oldmanfan]

Of course you make that throw.  Shakir was wide open.  Puts you up 4 and KC has to score a TD.  Everyone assumes they would have done so, but maybe not.

[dayman]

6 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

If Josh hit Shakir for the TD there, maybe the Chiefs would leave a minute on the clock after they retook the lead.

in all honesty that was the only other way we could win which is lower probability than chunking it going for a 0 second score

Scoring and stopping was lowest probability

basically we should have been assuming chunking and scoring was the way to go and not thrown that ball

 

 

Edited January 25 by dayman

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

17 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Perfectly awesome, except we're not

yeah. And yet, people are acting like I'm a lunatic for saying that's what Josh should have done.

 

 

[thewookie1]

I’d break down that final set of plays as such.

 

1st & 10 - run the ball and get to the two minute warning. Failure to accomplish much.

 

2nd & 9 - the play was likely Shakir is the go route, although unlikely, if he gets open throw to him. Diggs is your underneath target if Shakir is covered. Shakir was open and thus Allen went for the TD.

 

3rd & 9 - Allen likely rebels or the plan was to roll out right. In my honest opinion, I think Allen knew McD had no intention of going for it on 4th down and was purely looking for a few more yards and let his defense pull off a miracle. However Allen has been burned by this too many times and effectively decided it was 1st down or nothing. He had no intention of making a risky triple coverage pass but hoped rolling out might cause the D to break a bit and allow him to either run or pass to the chains. Kinkaid was the open man but was short of the sticks with little chance of reaching the 1st since he was surrounded and his back was to the 1st. He however had faith Bass could kick it from 44. It wasn’t like we were at a 52 yd kick distance and thus need some extra yardage regardless. When it didn’t work he tossed out of play to assure the FG seemingly. Having to at least assume he’d get to pray the D pulled it off.

 

 

Personally I would of ran Allen on 1st down, then used 2nd down for something underneath, I wouldn’t have guys going to the end zone unless  KC goes pure man which potentially would open up run options for Allen again. Then depending on that result you’d either pick up an easier 1st or be in prime real estate for a win or tie.

Edited January 25 by thewookie1

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Because I've watched Patrick Mahomes for 6 years and that's what he does. I also watched what he did to our defense. It gave you a slim  chance for a win - much better than kicking a tying field goal there with the same time left, which IMO was a guaranteed loss.

 

Allen had 4 game winning drives this year (should have been more but whatever). He has 19 in his career.

 

Mahomes had 2 game winning drives this year. He has 16 in his career.

 

Can't wait to see how you try and talk yourself out of this one.

[Repulsif]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know it wasn't his decision, right? He is following progressions. Diggs is clearly like 3rd in the progression. Shakir is 1st and they got the exact coverage (cover 2) that they wanted to throw the TD.

 

If people want to criticize Brady for being too aggressive with the play call I guess that's a conversation we can have... But it's patently ridiculous that we're asking the offense to thread an impossible needle of scoring a TD with just the right amount of time on the clock, all because we don't trust our head coach's defense to make a stop. I place the blame for that problem where it belongs.

 

A lot of people are to blame for this loss. Allen, Brady, and Shakir are the exceptions.

The Giants went sure to let Brady the least possible remaining time in their SB (remember the halfback who wanted to stop near the goal line) and it worked. The Panthers scored as fast as possible on a deep post, they let too much time to the Patriots and they lost . We are on the exact same case here with the Chiefs. Honestly, this is strategy 101, that's not that hard to understand, and that play showed again panic mode on the Bills coaching at money time.

Sadly 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

in short, he says those who think it was the wrong play/read, don’t understand progressions

 

Seemingly a lot of people on here don't understand what a QB's job is on any given play. They think QBs are playing Madden and have a top down view of the field. If anyone thinks he was supposed to throw to Diggs right away they are flat out wrong. That part of it is not even up for debate.

[Success]

Man, I hope Allen just wins 4 SB's in a row, to even up the record, and shut EVERYONE up.

 

It's exhausting being a sports fan these days. I try to tune everything out, but terrible uninformed takes are ubiquitous.

 

[LDD]

Hunting analogy...

 

If you go hunting and you have a good shot...you TAKE IT...you might not get another one.  If you hunt, you understand because you realize that the opportunity may not present itself again for a million different reasons.  There's many a hunter who will get this analogy...I passed up X for Y and never ended up shooting anything.  

 

The play was there, players didn't execute.  This is what McD always leans towards but won't say.  He always says it on the upside of everything but never on the downside because he protects his players.  I'm not a McD apologist but I feel like he's grown as a coach.  I believe the gameplan was correct and that the players left plays on the field (3 big drops/missed kick).  If the players execute those plays do we win?.  How many plays did the Chiefs leave on the field??

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know it wasn't his decision, right? He is following progressions. Diggs is clearly like 3rd in the progression. Shakir is 1st and they got the exact coverage (cover 2) that they wanted to throw the TD.

 

If people want to criticize Brady for being too aggressive with the play call I guess that's a conversation we can have... But it's patently ridiculous that we're asking the offense to thread an impossible needle of scoring a TD with just the right amount of time on the clock, all because we don't trust our head coach's defense to make a stop. I place the blame for that problem where it belongs.

 

A lot of people are to blame for this loss. Allen, Brady, and Shakir are the exceptions.

 

 

The Chiefs per-play offensive production was simply off the charts.   The Bills, depleted, injured and slow back 7.....and the presumably fresh and punchless front 4....... wasn't stopping the Chiefs from scoring a TD playing 4 down football with nearly 2 minutes and 2 timeouts.  

 

Thinking otherwise is what would have been patently ridiculous.   

 

I'd have done what Belichick and Parcells would have done there.    Kept chopping the better teams defense up a little piece at a time to keep the ball out of their hands.   I trust my single season record setting rushing TD QB to "thread the impossible needle" of pounding the ball across the goal line when it comes to that. 

 

But that would have been sound strategic football.

 

Though, admittedly it would have been better for TV if Allen hit's that strike on 2nd and 9.    Would have been reminiscent of the final TD pass Allen threw to Davis in the 13 second game.    Then when Mahomes and Kelce subsequently take the Chiefs down the field for the game winning TD.........well that would have ensured the next such matchup in the playoffs would get those 58 million viewers back and then some.

 

 

Edited January 26 by BADOLBILZ

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

What about last year vs the Vikings in OT? JA had basically that same exact throw, except it was intended for Davis (and his route took him right to left across the back of the end zone), and the throw was too low and also behind Davis, and it was picked off to end the game. And no one bumped into JA  on that throw.

 

Yeah, what about a totally different throw in a totally different situation. Good point.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 hours ago, Low Positive said:

In retrospect, my least favorite play on that drive was the run up the middle to get to the two-minute warning. It felt like wasting a down when the BIlls didn't have downs to waste. 

They were were run blitzing the middle that drive anc had already been blown up once. Running on first down was the correct choice however it should have been a sweep to the outside either Josh or a WR. 

[Success]

6 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

What about last year vs the Vikings in OT? JA had basically that same exact throw, except it was intended for Davis (and his route took him right to left across the back of the end zone), and the throw was too low and also behind Davis, and it was picked off to end the game. And no one bumped into JA  on that throw.

 

There are NO guarantees in NFL football. Shakir still had to have made the catch too.

 

Funny to see folks saying that he made the right decision, even though the end result is that the play failed. Personally, if something fails, I call it the wrong decision. 

 

The pass to an open Diggs was the right thing to do.

 

You say it yourself w/ the bolded.

 

That might have been the ONLY time a TD was that open.

 

How many times have we seen a big pass to somewhere inside the 10 yard line - and then the D tightens up and the offense can't get a TD?

 

As for the "end result" conclusion - not even sure how to address that one.  It's kind of preposterous.

 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The Chiefs per-play offensive production was simply off the charts.   The Bills, depleted, injured and slow back 7.....and the presumably fresh and punchless front 4....... wasn't stopping the Chiefs from scoring a TD playing 4 down football with nearly 2 minutes and 2 timeouts.  

 

Thinking otherwise is what would have been patently ridiculous.   

 

I'd have done what Belichick and Parcells would have done there.    Kept chopping the better teams defense up a little piece at a time to keep the ball out of their hands.   I trust my single season record setting rushing TD QB to "thread the impossible needle" of pounding the ball across the goal line when it comes to that. 

 

Well we had stopped them on the previous drive, twice actually because of an incorrect DPI call. McDermott had finally figured out (too late) that Siran Neal needed to be on Kelce and Dorian Williams needed to be on the field. We had found a combination that at least had the capability of stopping them.

 

It is just a lot to ask of the offense. It's hard enough to score TDs against an elite defense in the playoffs. Asking them to do it within a certain amount of time remaining on the clock is not fair. And FWIW the Chiefs were not giving up easy dink and dunk on the previous several drives, they were calling run blitzes and sitting on short routes. End of the day we had an opportunity for a TD and took it. I can't fault anyone for that decision.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

What about last year vs the Vikings in OT? JA had basically that same exact throw, except it was intended for Davis (and his route took him right to left across the back of the end zone), and the throw was too low and also behind Davis, and it was picked off to end the game. And no one bumped into JA  on that throw.

 

There are NO guarantees in NFL football. Shakir still had to have made the catch too.

 

Funny to see folks saying that he made the right decision, even though the end result is that the play failed. Personally, if something fails, I call it the wrong decision. 

 

The pass to an open Diggs was the right thing to do.

I dont think you are correct. 

In the Minnesota game Davis was running a post pattern right towards a single high safety. Horrible decision to make that throw.

This was a deep cross against a two deep safety look. Shakir curled right into the open part of the zone and was wide open. 

Good play design. Josh read it correctly. 

 

Going up 4 is completely different than going to 3 or less. 

[LeGOATski]

McD's halftime message to the team was "go for it."

 

Allen went for it.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well we had stopped them on the previous drive, twice actually because of an incorrect DPI call. McDermott had finally figured out (too late) that Siran Neal needed to be on Kelce and Dorian Williams needed to be on the field. We had found a combination that at least had the capability of stopping them.

 

It is just a lot to ask of the offense. It's hard enough to score TDs against an elite defense in the playoffs. Asking them to do it within a certain amount of time remaining on the clock is not fair. And FWIW the Chiefs were not giving up easy dink and dunk on the previous several drives, they were calling run blitzes and sitting on short routes. End of the day we had an opportunity for a TD and took it. I can't fault anyone for that decision.

 

 

Like I said,  we'll have to agree to disagree.   Because the Chiefs scored on every drive except that one and the one where they fumbled at the Bills 1 yard line.   And yeah, Dorian Wiliams made intentional illegal contact with the receiver on that PI. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

15 hours ago, Low Positive said:

In retrospect, my least favorite play on that drive was the run up the middle to get to the two-minute warning. It felt like wasting a down when the BIlls didn't have downs to waste. 

 

The third down play was the worst one IMO. We needed to pick up 3 yards at minimum on third down so we could go for it on 4th and 6. Kicking a fg to tie the game with 1:50 left over whatever was a death sentence in waiting. But at 4th and 9 you basically have no choice but to go FG.

 

 

[Drew21PA]

19 hours ago, Success said:

I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play.  It was THERE.  I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.

 

As though you can script something like that perfectly.  Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone.  Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it.  And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.

 

I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters?  The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.

 

And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard.  It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.

 

I’m with you that and the stupid narrative we were shut down In The second half lol

 

brady and Allen looked for shots - Allen was patient - Brady played great chess.

 

bomb to Diggs was just unreal.  Allen threw it from the 10 - little effort hit Diggs RIGHT IN STRIDE 70 yards in the air unreal

 

play prior took a shot - sheefield drops

 

those two right there are huuuuuuge - but it’s a game it’s football

 

chiefs were luckier

 

all year MVS drops easy scores yet had a beautiful contested grab - amazingly played - amazingly thrown ball - 30 yards.  
 

 

[Scott7975]

I didnt want to start a new thread for this so looked for a thread this may apply to.  Not really many, but it's worth the listen.  I wouldn't really take much stock in the title of it.  Sal spoke on Diggs but I wouldn't call it "dishing out the truth."  He covers a little bit on Diggs, a little bit about our skill positions (hint not good enough,) McD is basically safe, and the throw to Shakir instead of Diggs. 

 

 

Edited January 26 by Scott7975

[freddyjj]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And yeah, Dorian Wiliams made intentional illegal contact with the receiver on that PI. 

My understanding of the rule book is that if contact happens within 5 yds of line of scrimmage and occurs before ball is thrown then it is legal contact.  
 

The NBC footage from behind QB appeared to show  contact being made before ball was released.  

[Royale with Cheese]

20 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

What about last year vs the Vikings in OT? JA had basically that same exact throw, except it was intended for Davis (and his route took him right to left across the back of the end zone), and the throw was too low and also behind Davis, and it was picked off to end the game. And no one bumped into JA  on that throw.

 

There are NO guarantees in NFL football. Shakir still had to have made the catch too.

 

Funny to see folks saying that he made the right decision, even though the end result is that the play failed. Personally, if something fails, I call it the wrong decision. 

 

The pass to an open Diggs was the right thing to do.

 

So in your mind, this was the wrong read by Tua right?  Who would you have thrown it to instead of Hill?

Funny how you mention that JA against the Vikings.  Has Diggs been reliable with his hands in 2023?

 

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

Why do people keep coming back to that play?  Josh made the right read, it was just a good play by the defense.

 

His big miss was Kincaid on 3rd down before the Bass kick.  

[Bob Jones]

1 hour ago, Drew21PA said:

bomb to Diggs was just unreal.  Allen threw it from the 10 - little effort hit Diggs RIGHT IN STRIDE 70 yards in the air unreal

 

play prior took a shot - sheefield drops

 

those two right there are huuuuuuge - but it’s a game it’s football

Couple things.

 

Minor point, but the bomb to Diggs was 62 yards in the air (from the 12 yard line to the 26 yard line on the other side of the 50) and aided by the wind too. And I’m still wondering whether Diggs even saw that rainbow bomb, AT NIGHT, in enough time to track it.

 

One of Sherfield’s arms was being held on his bomb, so it was not a “drop”, unless you expected him to make a one hand grab in 20 degree weather.

[TheFunPolice]

if I was the HC some of you guys would fire me mid drive. 

 

My entire strategy would have been to get 2 1st downs, come hell or high water, and have the ball around the 7 or 8 1st down and goal. There would probably be about a minute on the clock. 

 

If KC had 1 timeout left by then, I would run on 1st down but instruct the RB to get as close as he can but not score. Then I would run the clock all the way down to 20 seconds or so. We still have out timeouts, so I take one here. 

 

Then, we take 2 end zone shots on 2nd and 3rd down from very close, where the whole playbook is open because we have a timeout still. If we score we're up 4 with less than 15 seconds left and KC has no timeouts. 

 

Worst case scenario we kick a FG from extra point distance with like 7 seconds left. 

 

It would be trading 1 down for 40 having 40 fewer seconds if we score to respond. It's the inverse of letting the other team score so you get the ball and have time to respond. 

Edited January 26 by TheFunPolice