Mr. WEO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Einstein said: 4, actually. Including the game clinching TD. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/252550-the-offense-is-better-without-gabe-davis/?do=findComment&comment=8878849 correct:4 The game should not have been that close. Harty adds nothing. There was no deep threat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 26 minutes ago, Process said: The offense is better without Davis playing 90% of snaps**** They are not better without him. He still has value as a blocker and down field threat. He just isn't an every down, starting WR. As long as Josh isn’t throwing him the ball on 3rd down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Mr. WEO said: correct:4 The game should not have been that close. Harty adds nothing. There was no deep threat. He played 14 offensive snaps, made a nice block on a cook swing pass for a few yards, and caught his only target and broke the tackle for YAC. Between that and a few nice fair catches on short punts in the first half - i thought he added something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 27 minutes ago, Codyny13 said: The Bills have done well in the absence of Davis, it has allowed the tightends and other receivers to make plays. That being said, Gabe is a good player and our best blocking WR. Going forward the Bills need to see that they can win with multiple personnel packages, but that being said, I’d love to have him back this Sunday. He’s been a chiefs killer in the past, and allows us to do different things. Gabe is a great blocker and has a good mix of size and speed. He is a phenomenal player for the specific role he should be used on this team, and any team would struggle to replace that role at $3M. People are too caught up in WR 1/WR 2 production. We saw Brady be dominant with a couple of TE and a great slot receiver. Mahomes used the same formula. Everything doesn't have to be about the outside guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Gabe is replaceable and can be improved upon. I can safely say I don't understand anyone's defense of Gabe Davis, a blocking WR thats considerd your #2 WR, who has a limited route tree, and has never caught 60% of his targets in any season, that is weak sauce, or as you called it...trash. Passed due to move on from. Knox is here for another 2 to 3 years, no way out of this till then. I mean... he's on this team for this season. I don't think he'll be here next season. Thats fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Gabe is replaceable and can be improved upon. I can safely say I don't understand anyone's defense of Gabe Davis, a blocking WR thats considerd your #2 WR, who has a limited route tree, and has never caught 60% of his targets in any season, that is weak sauce, or as you called it...trash. Passed due to move on from. Knox is here for another 2 to 3 years, no way out of this till then. We can cut knox after next season and save around 7M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It may have already been said but looking at the stat sheet, Sherfield wasn’t targeted even once yesterday. Same thing as what we’ve seen for Gabe occasionally. So, is the receiver or is it the offensive play design? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said: What, to run the wrong route or to drop the ball? Brady was game planning what the D was giving them and it worked. The WRs were getting open and the Stillers adjusted so Brady adjusted... he has fewer drops than Diggs, Kincaid or Knox. 41 of his 45 catches were for 1st downs or TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: We can cut knox after next season and save around 7M yeah still $7 million dead money but it is a savings. They would have to use a chunck of what we do save to sign a solid TE to relace him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: He played 14 offensive snaps, made a nice block on a cook swing pass for a few yards, and caught his only target and broke the tackle for YAC. Between that and a few nice fair catches on short punts in the first half - i thought he added something. A punt receiver who doesn't muff fair catches is performing the bare minimum for that job. He's good for a catch or two a game. He can't be mentioned in a comparison with Davis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: A punt receiver who doesn't muff fair catches is performing the bare minimum for that job. He's good for a catch or two a game. He can't be mentioned in a comparison with Davis. They were 30 yard end over end punts where he covered like 20 yards. Thats field position. He's not davis, and he'll be released in the offseason most likely. But for now, he's playing better than he has all season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 48 minutes ago, Einstein said: Well, we have a 40+ game history of Gabe dropping balls, or not being in tune with Allen, or being a complete non-factor. This game was just confirmation of what I long hypothesized. I don’t even blame HIM per-say. He may be very good on another team. But I think his presence in THIS offense is a net negative. Nearly 40% of Allen’s INT’s occur when targeting Gabe. Then Gabe is out for a game and Allen doesn’t throw an INT for only the second time in 12 weeks. And he is often not on the same page with Allen on choice routes. And when that’s not happening, he drops his fair share of balls (his career catch rate is in the 50% range). And more Gabe on the field means less Shakir. Lots of different factors here that represent a fairly LARGE sample size. So even though Gabe can be a good player, I just don’t think he is right for this particular offense. I don't disagree with the overall thesis "Gabe may not be right for this particular offense". I also agree that I'd rather see Khalil Shakir on the field than Gabe Davis. But to suggest that the reason that the offense performed well the one game Gabe missed this season was BECAUSE he didn't play...I'm not so sure. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation. Also, Shakir primarily plays in the slot. Gabe's ACTUAL replacement is, more often than not, Trent Sherfield. He didn't have any particularly meaningful contribution to the game yesterday. Did he even have a catch? I do like Deonte Harty and would kind of like to see him get more action in this offense. Anyway...I'm sticking with one game not being a big enough sample size to make a statement as definitive as "the offense is better without Gabe Davis", but we can agree to disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: They were 30 yard end over end punts where he covered like 20 yards. Thats field position. He's not davis, and he'll be released in the offseason most likely. But for now, he's playing better than he has all season. That may be true but not as a one of the WR in place of Davis (thread topic). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I put Gabe in the Knox bucket. Good team players but can’t depend on him to catch the ball. Can only throw to him if he’s wide open and can body catch it. Same with Cook and drops. 90% of our throws need to be to Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir from here on out except for dump-offs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternOHBillsFan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 30 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: he has fewer drops than Diggs, Kincaid or Knox. 41 of his 45 catches were for 1st downs or TDs. How many of Davis's drops and wrong routes led DIRECTLY to turnovers? It's a lot higher number than Diggs, Kincaid and Knox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 No INTs 🤷🏼♂️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Ok. And they let Pittsburgh get back into the game before putting them away. The blocked FG let the Steelers back into the game. Granted the O didnt look potent in the 3rd Q but it wasnt the O that let Steelers get momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 22 minutes ago, Logic said: Also, Shakir primarily plays in the slot. Gabe's ACTUAL replacement is, more often than not, Trent Sherfield. Nope. Gabe being out yesterday changed things up (and I loved it). They essentially used Kincaid as the #2 WR and Shakir as the slot. When Gabe is in, it’s Gabe as the #2 WR and Kincaid as the slot. This limits how often Shakir can play. Therefore, Gabe being out gives Shakir more opportunity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 58 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: Watt did not play last year You’re right and crazy we missed Watt twice in a row. But Davis had 171 and 2 tds and we won by 35. So it seems like him playing help us a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: correct:4 The game should not have been that close. Harty adds nothing. There was no deep threat. Agree that the game shouldn't have been that close. Same with the Dolphins game. Harty does add something. He has RAC ability. You seen it yesterday and he had another good RAC in a game earlier in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, Einstein said: Nope. Gabe being out yesterday changed things up (and I loved it). They essentially used Kincaid as the #2 WR and Shakir as the slot. When Gabe is in, it’s Gabe as the #2 WR and Kincaid as the slot. This limits how often Shakir can play. Therefore, Gabe being out gives Shakir more opportunity. This is where I would repeat the assertion that one game is not a big enough sample size to state what you just did declaratively. Those personnel groupings may well have been matchup specific. I don't particularly care to go back and forth on the matter, though. You've stated your opinion. I disagree with it, or at the very least, feel that it's too early to reach a conclusion on the matter. Onward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mojo44 said: what you assert to be a 40% interception read when Josh passage to him would you provide no support of evidence for. 12 of Allen's 32 INT's over the last two seasons have been targeting Gabe. 12/32 = 38%. Thus "nearly 40%", which is what I said... I took out the Hail Mary INT, because that's not fair. Know what it is when targeting Diggs? 16%. So 38% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that only receives 15.1% of the targets (174 targets / 1146 pass attempts). And 16% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that is thrown to 27.4% of the time (314 targets/1146 pass attempts). 38% of the INT's on 15% of the targets is .... a lot. . Edited January 16 by Einstein 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 (edited) 38% of Allen’s INTs the past 2 seasons on throws to Gabe is insane. Allen threw 0 this week. That alone made our offense better. Even 1 INT could have turned this game into a close win or narrrow loss. Edited January 16 by Alphadawg7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Einstein said: 12 of Allen's 32 INT's over the last two seasons have been targeting Gabe. 12/32 = 38%. Thus "nearly 40%", which is what I said... I took out the Hail Mary INT, because that's not fair. Know what it is when targeting Diggs? 16%. So 38% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that only receives 15.1% of the targets (174 targets / 1146 pass attempts). And 16% of Allen's INT's happen when targeting a player that is thrown to 27.4% of the time (314 targets/1146 pass attempts). 38% of the INT's on 15% of the targets is .... a lot. . OK. Thanks for the reference. Now let’s dig a little deeper. Let’s look at some of the variables that may go into this that may have nothing to do with Davis. In particular, we all know Josh has a tendency to try and force throws. When he does so downfield they often end up in an interception. Davis is usually that target. In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. The data does not prove that Gabe is the problem. It’s just as likely, if not more so, that Josh is the problem on these throws. Do you see what I’m saying now? This is still not sufficient to back your original opinion. The null hypothesis remains in effect. But thanks again for showing me that. let me add this, and I’m not trying to be snarky here. But I am a scientist. I have published empirical research papers in scientifically refereed journals. It’s an area of expertise that I happen to have and occasionally comes in handy here. Your opinion is an OK one but it has way too many holes in it. It’s still an opinion not based on probative data. You seem to be taking an empirical approach to your opinions and that’s why I am responding in the way I am. This would not pass muster as far as good science is concerned. But I will not be belabor it with you after that. Other than to say I still think the team is better when Davis is on the field because he has an element that the other receivers on the team do not have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Mojo44 said: OK. Thanks for the reference. Now let’s dig a little deeper. Let’s look at some of the variables that may go into this that may have nothing to do with Davis. In particular, we all know Josh has a tendency to try and force throws. When he does so downfield they often end up in an interception. Davis is usually that target. In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. The data does not prove that Gabe is the problem. It’s just as likely, if not more so, that Josh is the problem on these throws. Do you see what I’m saying now? This is still not sufficient to back your original opinion. The null hypothesis remains in effect. But thanks again for showing me that. let me add this, and I’m not trying to be snarky here. But I am a scientist. I have published empirical research papers in scientifically refereed journals. It’s an area of expertise that I happen to have and occasionally comes in handy here. Your opinion is an OK one but it has way too many holes in it. It’s still an opinion not based on probative data. You seem to be taking an empirical approach to your opinions and that’s why I am responding in the way I am. This would not pass muster as far as good science is concerned. But I will not be belabor it with you after that. Other than to say I still think the team is better when Davis is on the field because he has an element that the other receivers on the team do not have. I think you are missing the point. Nobody is saying its all on Davis, the argument is that Davis and Allen just are as on the same page or as dialed in and the passing offense is more efficient and less turnover prone when Davis is not in the lineup. Its not a quest for blame, its about does the passing offense function more efficiently with Davis on the field or off it? So it doesn't matter whose fault it is, the fact remains that nearly 40% of Allens INT's are happening when he is trying to get the ball to Davis. Then there are also all the incompletions too as Davis has a bad career catch rate. I think the data plenty supports identifying that Allen is less efficient as a passer when throwing to Davis vs the other guys on this roster. Edited January 16 by Alphadawg7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellyToTasker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Logic said: This is where I would repeat the assertion that one game is not a big enough sample size to state what you just did declaratively. Those personnel groupings may well have been matchup specific. I don't particularly care to go back and forth on the matter, though. You've stated your opinion. I disagree with it, or at the very least, feel that it's too early to reach a conclusion on the matter. Onward. Large part of two games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Mojo44 said: In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. Oh I'm sure some are on Josh. No doubt about it. But that goes with all the receivers he throws to. Some are on the QB and some are on the WR. But a significantly higher percentage occur when throwing to Gabe. And much of that reason is because Gabe and Josh don't seem to "click". They are often not on the same page. For example, remember, the Vikings OT game last year? Gabe takes his route deep into the endzone (leaving the DB shallow). Allen expected him to widen his route and body shield the defender. Instead, he cut it deep, which would have necessitated Allen throwing OVER defenders. Result? INT. And i'm not even necessarily blaming Gabe for deciding how to take his route. Like relationships, sometimes you just say "its nobodies fault - we just dont click". And thats where i'm at with Gave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 With respect you seem to be missing the point that it’s not a matter of “clicking”. Instead it’s very possibly a matter of Josh trying to get the ball to Davis when he is double covered when he should be throwing somewhere else. Personally I think this is more likely because Davis is the one receiver on the team who runs more high risk, i.e. deep routes. But you do seem to be acknowledging that your data is not really all that conclusive in terms of supporting your OP. If you would couch your opinion something like this: “It seems to me that the offense is better without Gabe” without the “data” it would be more palatable. I am 100% certain that the real Einstein would agree with me. Anyway, I will leave it at that and I really do appreciate your posts and your opinions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said: How many of Davis's drops and wrong routes led DIRECTLY to turnovers? It's a lot higher number than Diggs, Kincaid and Knox. his drops (3) were just drops. 6 of his targets were intercepted (one a throwaway in the EZ). 4 for Diggs. Only 2 for Kincaid likely because of very short routes. Tell me how many of Davis targets that were INTs were his error vs bad throws by Josh Allen? You must know since you brought it up. Allen had 18 INTs--but only the ones involving Davis were WR error? 5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said: Agree that the game shouldn't have been that close. Same with the Dolphins game. Harty does add something. He has RAC ability. You seen it yesterday and he had another good RAC in a game earlier in the season. Harty has only 15 catches all year. His YAC is 5.3 vs 4 for Davis. That's one running stride difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 hours ago, Mojo44 said: OK. Thanks for the reference. Now let’s dig a little deeper. Let’s look at some of the variables that may go into this that may have nothing to do with Davis. In particular, we all know Josh has a tendency to try and force throws. When he does so downfield they often end up in an interception. Davis is usually that target. In other words, what you’re not considering is that these interceptions are more on Josh than on Davis. The data does not prove that Gabe is the problem. It’s just as likely, if not more so, that Josh is the problem on these throws. Do you see what I’m saying now? This is still not sufficient to back your original opinion. The null hypothesis remains in effect. But thanks again for showing me that. let me add this, and I’m not trying to be snarky here. But I am a scientist. I have published empirical research papers in scientifically refereed journals. It’s an area of expertise that I happen to have and occasionally comes in handy here. Your opinion is an OK one but it has way too many holes in it. It’s still an opinion not based on probative data. You seem to be taking an empirical approach to your opinions and that’s why I am responding in the way I am. This would not pass muster as far as good science is concerned. But I will not be belabor it with you after that. Other than to say I still think the team is better when Davis is on the field because he has an element that the other receivers on the team do not have. maybe occams butterknife can explain how a statistically significant % of Allen's INTs and missed plays thrown at one mediocre wideout are actually the QBs fault when that QB also happens to be the best in the game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steptide Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 hours ago, Einstein said: Even if he has a “good” game, it stinks that we lose all those snaps for other player, who are legit playmakers. I mean, I think Josh can distribute the ball between Diggs, Gabe and Shakir. Sherfield and Harty are almost non factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, Steptide said: I mean, I think Josh can distribute the ball between Diggs, Gabe and Shakir. Sherfield and Harty are almost non factors. There are only so many snaps to go around. If Diggs & Davis are on the field, you have to choose between Kincaid and Shakir at slot. Are you taking Kincaid out for Shakir? On Sunday the Bills pit Kincaid at #2 a lot, and let Shakir play the slot. I loved that. It let you have a field of Diggs, Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and Knox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balln Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Not only the high int % per target- but the drops. Gabe Davis is a BLACK HOLE for targets. sometimes he has a big game. Keep him off the filed. Kincaid Shakir are better targets / matchups more consistently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/15/2024 at 7:53 PM, Bills!Win! said: My jaw dropped when Harty caught the ball downfield. I didn’t think he was allowed to do that My son (10) goes who is that ? mannnnn he is fast!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steptide Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Einstein said: There are only so many snaps to go around. If Diggs & Davis are on the field, you have to choose between Kincaid and Shakir at slot. Are you taking Kincaid out for Shakir? On Sunday the Bills pit Kincaid at #2 a lot, and let Shakir play the slot. I loved that. It let you have a field of Diggs, Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and Knox. True. I don't think Gabe will play a ton of snaps even if he plays this week. I definitely wanna see Shakir get more looks, I think the bills have desperately missed that beasley role. However, if Gabe puts up 100 yards, I'm not gonna complain about that either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 What stood out to me more were no interceptions or bad QB/WR miscommunication plays with Gabe out. Only one bad drop by Knox. The fact that we don’t miss a step AND weren’t hurt by negative Davis plays, tells me we’re better off without him. Shakir might be the guy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balln Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Steptide said: True. I don't think Gabe will play a ton of snaps even if he plays this week. I definitely wanna see Shakir get more looks, I think the bills have desperately missed that beasley role. However, if Gabe puts up 100 yards, I'm not gonna complain about that either It’s just a bad matchup for Gabe. THIS version of KC secondary is insane. Prob the best (maybe BaL is equal). let me remind everyone that he had 0 catches for 0 yards with 2 targets during reg season. forget about the 4 td game. This is an entirely better kc D. they stick to you like glue. Gabe simply can’t get open Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/15/2024 at 7:54 PM, KDIGGZ said: But I heard Gabe was a good blocker and the most valuable player even when he doesn't make a catch? Davis is one of the best blocking WRs in the game. The one trait he’s elite at. It’s like pass blocking for a RB. Just because it’s not his main job doesn’t mean it’s not important. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balln Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: Davis is one of the best blocking WRs in the game. The one trait he’s elite at. It’s like pass blocking for a RB. Just because it’s not his main job doesn’t mean it’s not important. The least important thing to be a boundary NFL WR. I’m not sure he’s that ELiTE? I see him motion down in tight and misses block after block , whiffs in the box. Ok sure he can block a DB. Big deal. I need my WR2 to separate and win routes and catch the ball. That’s it. And run the right routes and not confuse the qb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Since1981 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 WR2 on boundary who’s present for 40% of the turnovers but can block a DB. Why is this valuable? My mechanic can’t fix my engine but he’s excellent at putting air in my tires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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