Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

If the Bills run the same game plan, and Josh the same approach, as against the Cowboys, then they should win.

Part of the reason we ran all over the Cowboys is about their defense is small. They are built to stop the pass. It wasn't an amazing scheme/approach that enabled us to run on them.

 

Steelers defense is a different beast.

[Big Turk]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So as soon as I said this is normal Buffalo weather in mid January it seems Mother Nature took that as a challenge. The weather report keeps getting worse every time I look at it.

 

 

 

Normal weather in mid January is around 32 degrees

[JMM]

I'll just say this. If the field is snow covered the Bills better have the proper damn cleats on! I know they also got out physicaled by the Bengals last year, but I could swear it looked like the Bills were playing with roller skates on!!

[Gregg]

Brooke Pryor on X: "Minkah Fitzpatrick says he’s playing against Buffalo this weekend. He thought he could’ve played vs. Baltimore but trainers wanted him to be 110%" / X (twitter.com)

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

18 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

If the Bills run the same game plan, and Josh the same approach, as against the Cowboys, then they should win.

I have been thinking about this. It will be harder, as there is film on it and the Steelers aren't going to adamantly keep lighter personnel out there for some reason, but knowing that Brady isn't afraid of using 6 OL and 2 TE concepts with Gilliam as a fullback gives me cautious reassurance.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

A higher degree of competence from Dorsey may have reduced the immediate churn somewhat, but having a defensive Head Coach means OC's have to look elsewhere for HC opportunities without having an offensive minded head coach in place to keep things ticking over.

 

Well, OK, but why should a head coach have to babysit an OC then?  

it seems that a competent OC, even on a team with a defensive type head coach, would be doing much better with Allen & Co.  Wouldn't it seem to hinge on how competent that OC actually is?  And frankly, how much direction and guidance apart from constructing a playbook to play to our strengths is actually needed with Allen?  Doesn't seem like much.  

 

Look at Daboll's rankings as an OC before coming here and being handed Allen.  They suck.  They're awful.  So why did McD hire him?  

 

Then Dorsey, whom I said was mystery meat back then and was chided.  He was mystery meat and so is Brady.  But the fact is that neither had any body of work or experience, so at best it's a die roll.  As I've often opined, Dorsey ran the offense as if he was running it vicariously in attempting to relive his prolific days as a QB at U. Miami.  The evidence supports that.  

 

Brady may end up being the next great OC, who knows, but right now it's not trending in that direction.  It's trending oppositely despite overly positive narratives.  

 

And then there's this "complimentary football" cliche nonsense, that for us anyway appears to be the offense supporting the defense.  But what if our D collapses again and goes into fear mode and play not to lose mode in the playoffs?  Isn't that why we've lost our later round playoff games to any team seeded better than 5th?  It seems to be.  

 

We have Josh Allen!  The team should be bending over backwards to protect him and get him receiving options, something that they haven't even significantly approached doing until this past offseason, McD's sixth.  Meanwhile, the incessant crying over not having adequate WRs ... 

 

Is it not possible that McD refuses to hire a highly competent OC because he realizes that if the offense then outshines the defense, and yet we continue to fail to progress into the later rounds of the playoffs, that there's a chance he would get fired and replaced by that OC?  There's obviously a chance of that, if we had such an OC.  But none of the guys he's selected are that good.  How many seasons should Brady be given to find out there? 

 

Meanwhile, Allen, as you reasonably said, or at least implied, is "struggling with his mental state."  Why wouldn't he be.  What is unreasonable is expecting consistency from season to season under those circumstances.  What he's having to go through, all because McD is a "defensive minded coach," isn't reasonable.  

 

It's also holding the team back.  We've averaged the fewest PPG that we have over the past three seasons.  It's been the lowest under Brady.  Anyone can argue as they may, but that's a fact, and that's even with those two explosive games against the Jets and Dallas, and Philly even to kick things off for him.  We've averaged 24.6 offensive PPG under him.  Before this season began, I was thinking that we may hit 34 PPG which was actually supported by Allen's statements of what he was expecting from himself and the offense in some non-official interview somewhere.  He estimated over 5,000 passing yards for himself, the strongest-armed QB in the league.  Is that unreasonable?  Hardly.  Yet, he's averaging 244 passing YPG under Brady, a 17-game season pace of 4,148 passing yards and 1.4 passing TDs.  That would have placed him at 8th between Love and Stroud for yards, and 11th tied with Stafford and Jackson for passing TDs, and one behind Carr and one ahead of Stroud, and the only one of them that played all 17 games was Carr.  So it's not just me.  

 

At the end of the day it's on this coaching staff, presumably led by McD, but obviously it won't be if things don't go our way, to make whatever adjustments we need to make for this game to beat the Steelers.  If we can't, expect more illogical changes and scapegoating and avoidance of the real issue(s), and what, yet another OC for Allen in as many years going into his fourth season.  Yeah, that would be great for his development.  If it goes right, great.  We'll all be happy.  But going right means a first.  Will we see a first under McD in his 7th season?  Let's hope so.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

[Gman10]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

the only team we lost to in the playoffs was the eagles and we should have won that one.

 

any team we played in the playoffs we beat.

To be fair, if we can't beat the Steelers, we can't beat KC, Ravens/Browns or 9ers

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, mannc said:

I don't know about you, but the idea of leaning heavily on James Cook in a snowy, windy, slippery game like this makes me very uncomfortable.  I'd probably start Fournette... 

 

Completely agree.  That's why Harris/Warren have a significant advantage like that.  I mean look at what New England did to us that one year with the snow when they threw the ball what, two or three times maybe, all game.  

 

Still, we have options.  But what we don't have is a RB that can play effectively in those conditions pending Fournette.  

 

See my recent posts above.

 

There are many questions heading into this game, among which are whether or not our D is once again going to play not to lose.  Our offensive production is down under Brady, contrary to popular opinion.  So the D will have to step up.  

 

Either way, there's no reason why the Steelers should outscore us in Buffalo.  

 

The other thing that's evident, is that the Steelers are playing their best football since Roethlisburger was their QB, under Rudolph.  Whether that last remains to be seen.  

 

Let's hope that the weather's on the positive side, not all that bad, just cold, and that we win this one.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

Edited January 11 by PBF81

[Putin]

On 1/8/2024 at 10:51 AM, Einstein said:

This will be the Steelers 3rd road game in a row. Gotta think that wears on the team a bit:

 

 

If I win a lottery I won’t have to go to work anymore 

[Coach Tuesday]

47 minutes ago, hellofellowbillsfans said:

the weather really makes me nervous with the brand of football the steelers play

 

Nobody - not a single person - has mentioned this.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Dumb question, as someone might know better than me: do the Steelers have a full time fullback? I know Gilliam here works out with the TEs and there is overlap, but when I look at their roster I see one guy who is supposed to be a TE/FB hybrid and someone on the practice squad.

 

I know most games aren't won or lost on the quality of a teams fullback in this era of football, but it's a position whose value is a hill I've set to die on, and we have a pretty darned good one in Gilliam. In weather like what it's looking Sunday, it might matter.

 

(Ask me to go on my FB tract if you like )

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Completely agree.  That's why Harris/Warren have a significant advantage like that.  I mean look at what New England did to us that one year with the snow when they threw the ball what, two or three times maybe, all game.  

 

Still, we have options.  But what we don't have is a RB that can play effectively in those conditions pending Fournette.  

 

See my recent posts in the game thread.  

 

There are many questions heading into this game, among which are whether or not our D is once again going to play not to lose.  Our offensive production is down under Brady, contrary to popular opinion.  So the D will have to step up.  

 

Either way, there's no reason why the Steelers should outscore us in Buffalo.  

 

The other thing that's evident, is that the Steelers are playing their best football since Roethlisburger was their QB, under Rudolph.  Whether that last remains to be seen.  

 

Let's hope that the weather's on the positive side, not all that bad, just cold, and that we win this one.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

 

This is a game where I could see Allen's running being a bigger factor in getting the win then his throwing the ball.

[Putin]

On 1/8/2024 at 11:17 AM, Logic said:

Bad weather, going against a good defense and an underdog team with nothing to lose and a 3rd string QB...

To me, this has all the makings of an anxiety inducing, closer than it needs to be, can't exhale until the final whistle type of game. Not that the Bills have really played any other type of game for most of this season, but...

I hope I'm wrong. I hope it's a laugher in favor of the good guys. As it stands now, though, I'll say 20-17 Bills.

 

No way the Steelers score 17 points NO WAY 

 

[PBF81]

Just now, Gregg said:

 

This is a game where I could see Allen's running being a bigger factor in getting the win then his throwing the ball.

 

Allen should always keep running as an option in the open field.  

 

Where the team should have other options, whether it be rushing or passing, is at the Goal Line.  Not that Allen shouldn't do a sneak here or there, but constantly being the primary GL option isn't good for his long-term prospects.  Cook isn't good at the GL, obviously.  Fournette's much better.  Of Fournette's 34 career rushing TDs, over half, 18, have been from the 1 YL, five more have been from the 2, and 29 of the 34 have been from the 5 or closer.  

 

I have no idea why he hasn't been on the roster, which implicates coaching as it cannot be anything else.  Which says that apparently isn't the kind of offense that they want down there, which is a little head-scratching.  

 

 

[VaMilBill]

What we cannot allow is for the Steelers to control the clock with their ground game. We also can’t allow the big play to George Pickens for a TD (or any WR for that matter). 
 

Our offense has to produce this game to get the Steelers out of their game plan. If we can take a 2 TD lead or so, I will feel pretty comfortable with the way our defense has been playing. Although to its the bills we are talking about, so I’ll probably never be comfortable with any lead

[gordong]

50 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So as soon as I said this is normal Buffalo weather in mid January it seems Mother Nature took that as a challenge. The weather report keeps getting worse every time I look at it.

 

 

would they move a playoff game??   

 

[zow2]

1 minute ago, VaMilBill said:

What we cannot allow is for the Steelers to control the clock with their ground game. We also can’t allow the big play to George Pickens for a TD (or any WR for that matter). 
 

Our offense has to produce this game to get the Steelers out of their game plan. If we can take a 2 TD lead or so, I will feel pretty comfortable with the way our defense has been playing. Although to its the bills we are talking about, so I’ll probably never be comfortable with any lead

 

I'm sure the coaches and players are hyper aware that 1 year ago Cincinnati jumped on them 14-0 or was it 17-0 in the snow?  The Bills never had a shot after that.

As a matter of fact, Buffalo has been losing 7-0, 7-0, 10-0, to start the past three games.  All this has to completely flip around starting Sunday in the weather.

[PBF81]

Just now, VaMilBill said:

What we cannot allow is for the Steelers to control the clock with their ground game. We also can’t allow the big play to George Pickens for a TD (or any WR for that matter). 
 

Our offense has to produce this game to get the Steelers out of their game plan. If we can take a 2 TD lead or so, I will feel pretty comfortable with the way our defense has been playing. Although to its the bills we are talking about, so I’ll probably never be comfortable with any lead

 

Yeah, we're all on pins and needles seemingly.  Pitt's offense is surging, ours is seemingly in regression.  Allen's our primary ball carrier inside the red zone these days, again.  Apart from that outlier Dallas game Allen has 254 rushing yards and 8 TDs, Cook has 328 and 0 TDs.  

 

The big thing may very likely be whether the defense comes out as it has in McD's playoffs thus far, by playing not to lose and slacking up.  That could easily cost us the game if we do that given the way that our offense is trending against below-average defenses recently.  Drops included.  

 

 

[zow2]

1 minute ago, gordong said:

would they move a playoff game??   

 

 

If the County and State authorities determine it's life threatening travel conditions I would think they'd have to do something..  But will they predict 60-70+ inches like last year? That would be life threatening.  If it's 6-8 inches I'm not sure that alters the timing of the game at all.

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Pitt's offense is surging, ours is seemingly in regression. 

 

 

 

Regression?  They just produced 26 first down and 473 total yards vs a pretty decent Miami defense in their house.

[newcam2012]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, OK, but why should a head coach have to babysit an OC then?  

it seems that a competent OC, even on a team with a defensive type head coach, would be doing much better with Allen & Co.  Wouldn't it seem to hinge on how competent that OC actually is?  And frankly, how much direction and guidance apart from constructing a playbook to play to our strengths is actually needed with Allen?  Doesn't seem like much.  

 

Look at Daboll's rankings as an OC before coming here and being handed Allen.  They suck.  They're awful.  So why did McD hire him?  

 

Then Dorsey, whom I said was mystery meat back then and was chided.  He was mystery meat and so is Brady.  But the fact is that neither had any body of work or experience, so at best it's a die roll.  As I've often opined, Dorsey ran the offense as if he was running it vicariously in attempting to relive his prolific days as a QB at U. Miami.  The evidence supports that.  

 

Brady may end up being the next great OC, who knows, but right now it's not trending in that direction.  It's trending oppositely despite overly positive narratives.  

 

And then there's this "complimentary football" cliche nonsense, that for us anyway appears to be the offense supporting the defense.  But what if our D collapses again and goes into fear mode and play not to lose mode in the playoffs?  Isn't that why we've lost our later round playoff games to any team seeded better than 5th?  It seems to be.  

 

We have Josh Allen!  The team should be bending over backwards to protect him and get him receiving options, something that they haven't even significantly approached doing until this past offseason, McD's sixth.  Meanwhile, the incessant crying over not having adequate WRs ... 

 

Is it not possible that McD refuses to hire a highly competent OC because he realizes that if the offense then outshines the defense, and yet we continue to fail to progress into the later rounds of the playoffs, that there's a chance he would get fired and replaced by that OC?  There's obviously a chance of that, if we had such an OC.  But none of the guys he's selected are that good.  How many seasons should Brady be given to find out there? 

 

Meanwhile, Allen, as you reasonably said, or at least implied, is "struggling with his mental state."  Why wouldn't he be.  What is unreasonable is expecting consistency from season to season under those circumstances.  What he's having to go through, all because McD is a "defensive minded coach," isn't reasonable.  

 

It's also holding the team back.  We've averaged the fewest PPG that we have over the past three seasons.  It's been the lowest under Brady.  Anyone can argue as they may, but that's a fact, and that's even with those two explosive games against the Jets and Dallas, and Philly even to kick things off for him.  We've averaged 24.6 offensive PPG under him.  Before this season began, I was thinking that we may hit 34 PPG which was actually supported by Allen's statements of what he was expecting from himself and the offense in some non-official interview somewhere.  He estimated over 5,000 passing yards for himself, the strongest-armed QB in the league.  Is that unreasonable?  Hardly.  Yet, he's averaging 244 passing YPG under Brady, a 17-game season pace of 4,148 passing yards and 1.4 passing TDs.  That would have placed him at 8th between Love and Stroud for yards, and 11th tied with Stafford and Jackson for passing TDs, and one behind Carr and one ahead of Stroud, and the only one of them that played all 17 games was Carr.  So it's not just me.  

 

At the end of the day it's on this coaching staff, presumably led by McD, but obviously it won't be if things don't go our way, to make whatever adjustments we need to make for this game to beat the Steelers.  If we can't, expect more illogical changes and scapegoating and avoidance of the real issue(s), and what, yet another OC for Allen in as many years going into his fourth season.  Yeah, that would be great for his development.  If it goes right, great.  We'll all be happy.  But going right means a first.  Will we see a first under McD in his 7th season?  Let's hope so.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

Coaching is the most glaring reason why the Bills haven't reaching the SB under McD. No need to go back game by game to illustrate and support this claim. It's there for all of us to see. The only question is do you want see it, ignore it, or excuse it? 

 

I suspect Tomlin and the Steelers will out plan, out coach, out adjust the Bills. 

 

Hopefully, the Bills talent prevails over the inferior Steelers. 

[njbuff]

There was a lot of bad karma going into last year’s playoffs, then it got worse after barely beating Miami with 72nd string QB.

 

There is none of that this year.

 

Just go out and care of business against a team you are far superior to, no matter what the weather conditions are.

[newcam2012]

20 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

To be fair, if we can't beat the Steelers, we can't beat KC, Ravens/Browns or 9ers

There's always a chance of a letdown. Maybe the the team will be gassed from making the run into the playoffs. They have played 5 straight games of basically playoff football. At some point, that might take it's toll. 

 

What happened last year vs the Bengals. The team was gassed, emotionally spent, and had nothing. Of course, that was the theme after the fact. 

 

Lets get ahead of the narrative here. 

[MikePJ76]

not good

[newcam2012]

22 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

This is a game where I could see Allen's running being a bigger factor in getting the win then his throwing the ball.

Can you see Allen fumbling? I think the Steelers will have a solid plan to contain Allen. I doubt they let him beat them with his legs. Of course, Allen is great at making plays. 

[ALLinALLEN]

No excuses, have to win.

[Warriorspikes51]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, we're all on pins and needles seemingly.  Pitt's offense is surging, ours is seemingly in regression.  Allen's our primary ball carrier inside the red zone these days, again.  Apart from that outlier Dallas game Allen has 254 rushing yards and 8 TDs, Cook has 328 and 0 TDs.  

 

The big thing may very likely be whether the defense comes out as it has in McD's playoffs thus far, by playing not to lose and slacking up.  That could easily cost us the game if we do that given the way that our offense is trending against below-average defenses recently.  Drops included.  

 

 

 

what?  we had over 400 yards of offense in Miami 

you say Allen is our primary ball carrier inside the red zone like it's a bad thing ?   He has 15 rush TD's 

[ALLinALLEN]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

not good

Rest is good for them. Get in 1 practice and were set.

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, we're all on pins and needles seemingly.  Pitt's offense is surging, ours is seemingly in regression.  Allen's our primary ball carrier inside the red zone these days, again.  Apart from that outlier Dallas game Allen has 254 rushing yards and 8 TDs, Cook has 328 and 0 TDs.  

 

The big thing may very likely be whether the defense comes out as it has in McD's playoffs thus far, by playing not to lose and slacking up.  That could easily cost us the game if we do that given the way that our offense is trending against below-average defenses recently.  Drops included.  

 

 

Also, the Bills often come out of the gates slowly. They can't afford to do this on Sunday. 

 

The more I analyze this game the more this game scares me. 

Edited January 11 by newcam2012

[Mango]

5 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

This may get downvotes but if the Bills lose to the Steelers I will be an advocate of moving on from McDermott. And it's partially down to something you refer to above - the churn at OC not helping the key player on the team. Get in someone with OC experience as Head Coach and we can at least hope for some stability, even if the churn at OC continues. 

 

Getting past the Steelers then losing to the Chiefs or Ravens is uncertain ground, as I think under anyone they would be 50/50 match ups which could go either way. But I am with you that having a defensive minded head coach, as well as he has done for the Bills, is not the best thing for the franchise.

I don’t disagree. But on the other side of the coin I think we were set up about as well as anybody could be in terms of transition. Daboll > Dorsey > Brady. We’ve done a good job of having an up and comer in the wings.

 

This issue is that Dorsey was supposed to get 3-4 years to bring along Brady not 1.5.

 

That said, I think Dorsey is a good OC in that his game plans seemed to be sound. His playbook had checks and coverage beaters. But he wasn’t a good play caller and lacked flow/feel for the game. If he was a better play caller he’d still be here. 

 

All that said, unless we get an older OC committed to the role Brady needs to stick. Otherwise I think we start to spiral at OC. 

[zow2]

Illness?  Hope the virus that hit other teams isn't ripping through the Bills.  Just more adversity.

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

The more I analyze this game the more this game scares me. 

 

After reading through the posts in this topic, I have canceled my Las Vegas Super Bowl reservations and I'm preparing various Mock drafts  lol.

[boyst]

16 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Coaching is the most glaring reason why the Bills haven't reaching the SB under McD. No need to go back game by game to illustrate and support this claim. It's there for all of us to see. The only question is do you want see it, ignore it, or excuse it? 

 

I suspect Tomlin and the Steelers will out plan, out coach, out adjust the Bills. 

 

Hopefully, the Bills talent prevails over the inferior Steelers. 

we have played better the last 8 weeks. the negative nancy me expects a let down and mcdermott to poo the bed.

 

the other part of me is finally starting to see him make better decisions and almost seems like he has changed.

[billsfan89]

6 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

not good

Luckily Knox and Dawkins on Thursday should have enough time to get better from illness and Harry hopefully gets back from his personal matter. Mitch had an illness designation last week on Friday and was already deemed good to play on Sunday the next days.

 

Hopefully between Davis, Dodson, Douglas and Rapp they at least get 2 of the 4 going. I think Davis is likely out and Douglas will likely play the other two are 50/50.

 

Everyone is banged up this time of year, not the worst injury report.

[newcam2012]

Just now, boyst said:

we have played better the last 8 weeks. the negative nancy me expects a let down and mcdermott to poo the bed.

 

the other part of me is finally starting to see him make better decisions and almost seems like he has changed.

Well said. I feel the same way. It's like ying and yang in my mind. 

5 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Illness?  Hope the virus that hit other teams isn't ripping through the Bills.  Just more adversity.

 

After reading through the posts in this topic, I have canceled my Las Vegas Super Bowl reservations and I'm preparing various Mock drafts  lol.

Lol. Good one. 

[boyst]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

Well said. I feel the same way. It's like ying and yang in my mind. 

jekyl and hyde.

 

do we get McChump, as i have called him?

or...

Will we get McChampion©?

 

I have now copyrighted McChampion. If this catches on and we win than I receive royalties of $1.5mm internet bucks and 2% of all revenue of the internet.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

Hey, guys, we'll be just fine. We can game plan for the nasty football they're all predicting. Just have the Nimbus cloud throw to the cumulus, in a general, westerly motion, and make sure to watch out for the lake effect linebacker lying in coverage in tornado alley. 

 

We'll be fine!

Edited January 11 by ROCBillsBeliever

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

we have played better the last 8 weeks. the negative nancy me expects a let down and mcdermott to poo the bed.

 

the other part of me is finally starting to see him make better decisions and almost seems like he has changed.

I think in that article it stated that McD was always giving off the vibe of thinking what can go wrong towards the end of close games. Which I kind of agreed with. But since the bye week he is giving off the vibe of what can go right at the end of games.

 

The team just feels like it’s not as tight towards the end of games.

Edited January 11 by billsfan89

[K-9]

7 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Also, I might not that the Bills often come out of the gates slowly. They can't afford to do this on Sunday. 

 

The more I analyze this game the more this game scares me. 

[ALLinALLEN]

Just looking at the PIT vs BAL game from last week got me an extra dose of confidence. 

 

In a must win game vs backups, the Steelers managed just 17 points. 

 

Weather was bad, could be similar to Sunday.

 

Baltimore's drives offensively: Punt, Punt, Fumble, Punt, TD, Halftime, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Fumble, FG, End of game.

 

I think we're fine as long as we don't do that lol.

[zow2]

I think ya'll who are nervous should take solace that under Brady the Bills are really a grind it out team that puts emphasis on moving the chains along with some physical McDermott D.  They don't need the flash & huge chunk plays to survive.  Run, protect the ball, hit some short/medium passes here and there...a couple Allen off script scrambles, a tush push...and we're good.  Make good on your red zone opportunities.  I might even suit up Latavius this week, I think he'd contribute in the pounding of the Steelers.

[Negan]

This game will be like the Pats vs Titans in the snow a few years ago, Buffalo 40 Pitt 0.