"The Best NFL Offense that Can't Score Points" - Video Breakdown

[BigDingus]

 

Just for those who are interested. Crazy to see how the Bills are ranked so highly in many offensive metrics, yet still so low in PPG the last 5 weeks.

 

Edit - 6:36 in the video is where it gets interesting, breaking down how EPA is the PROBABILITY of scoring points (which the Bills are ranked #2 in), and how the Bills are "the best team in the league at taking a theoretically strong field position after a big play, and totally squandering it."

Edited November 11, 2023 by BigDingus

[NickelCity]

Dorsey's signature. Could see it last year too.

[GoBills808]

5th in offensive points scored and 18th in total points is the takeaway

 

Bass w the entirety of his misses in the last 5games contributes I would imagine

 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

So if they can figure it out, watch out.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

I think the phrase “empty calories” is the best reference.

[GoBills808]

@FireChans

the thing to remember about EPA is it's a model and not necessarily an indicator

 

I will say that models built around EPA like nflELO and similar others show remarkable accuracy in predicting say NFL spreads more accurately than standard price discover...like the majority of models (and this real life example of offense performance vs expected performance) it performs better in regression analysis

[strive_for_five_guy]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

5th in offensive points scored and 18th in total points is the takeaway

 

Bass w the entirety of his misses in the last 5games contributes I would imagine

 

 

I doubt the three field goals he missed is contributing much to this.  He’s been 3-6 in those games, NFL average can’t be better than 83%, so missing 1 out of the six is at least expected, without even accounting for distance, field conditions, etc.  So at worst, he’s missed two more than expected, aka 6 points.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Boy this guy's analysis makes one wonder what the heck our is OC doing.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I doubt the three field goals he missed is contributing much to this.  He’s been 3-6 in those games, NFL average can’t be better than 83%, so missing 1 out of the six is at least expected, without even accounting for distance, field conditions, etc.  So at worst, he’s missed two more than expected, aka 6 points.

Could be but >1ppg is going to probably be significant I think

 

I do not imagine his attempts contributed much to EPA being two of his missed from 50+ yards 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

This is really good; thanks! I love his points about the lack of FGs and how horrible the run scheme is.

[BuffaloBill]

You can boil it down to three issues:

 

* An over reliance on shotgun

* A lack of a run game out of shotgun primarily due to vanilla scheme

* An over reliance on big plays to dig out of holes and then stalling out due to no run game.

 

To me the net of this is that Dorsey is way too enamored with Josh’s arm.  This then spills over to the rest of the offense that believes too much in Josh’s arm.

 

I have solidly joined the camp that says Dorsey is the problem (the film does not lie).  The Bills run scheme is pop warner and it is causing them to waste Josh’s talent.

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Boy this guy's analysis makes one wonder what the heck our is OC doing.

For me the non-analytic part of it is least interesting tbh

 

He is seemingly unaware of our actual offensive line quality re physical ability and misdiagnoses a bunch of our run game concepts

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

For me the non-analytic part of it is least interesting tbh

 

He is seemingly unaware of our actual offensive line quality re physical ability and misdiagnoses a bunch of our run game concepts

The Bills’ o-line talent isn’t that bad and is in all likelihood better than average at the moment. They have no injuries, and lines across the league are in way worse shape because of injuries/mediocrity. 

Edited November 11, 2023 by dave mcbride

[mannc]

Excellent and highly watchable analysis.  Quick summary:  The Bills need a new offensive coordinator.  (Duh)   

[WhoTom]

Being the best offense that can't score points is like being the best lay that can't bring her to a climax.

 

 

[HappyDays]

The stats shown at the beginning are an indicator of bad defense and special teams. Like 5th best in TDs per drive since week 5, but only 18th in total points over that time span, that is clearly a time of possession stat. As Brett Kollmann points out, field position is another huge issue. Our offense has a middling run game and only one elite pass catcher, and it's being asked to execute perfectly on long drives with very few opportunities for explosive plays. That is not a recipe for success.

 

Good analysis of the run game schematic issues too. @HoofHearted pointed out that 2 of our 8 called runs versus Cincy featured a schematic flaw that literally drew the defender to the spot where they made the tackle.

 

And unfortunately I don't think the myriad of factors causing these issues are fixable at this point in the season. Pretty much our only chance of sustained success against decent teams right now is everyone on offense executing perfectly throughout the game, and that is just not a realistic ask.

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

This is really good; thanks! I love his points about the lack of FGs and how horrible the run scheme is.

Whom do you think is responsible for that?  And why is nothing being done about it?

[BigDingus]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

For me the non-analytic part of it is least interesting tbh

 

He is seemingly unaware of our actual offensive line quality re physical ability and misdiagnoses a bunch of our run game concepts

 

I'm not sure there's been a more obnoxious whiner of the OL quality than me the last several years, but I don't think that has much impact on his points.

 

Good offenses (and good coordinators) will try & shore up those weaknesses with schemes & creative play designs. The Bills don't. Like he said, they run 2 basic concepts, essentially expecting to fail. 

 

Because they want shotgun to be their identity, they refuse to call formations that they actually have success running out of...  As he said, they base their ENTIRE run game on the 2 "least explosive" concepts imaginable (inside zone & duo), and even then, they run them in the most predictable & least creative ways imaginable ("straight downhill, into the jaws of hell" as he put it). 

 

Even if your OL talent stinks, you are deliberately handicapping yourself even further by doing this. Other teams that run out of shotgun don't do this, but we do. All these problems lead to the other big issue he discusses, where the Bills are now a "TD or nothing" team.

 

They're ranked 6th in drives ending in a TD, but ranked 31st in drives that result in a FG... only attempting 6 FGs the last 5 games, and only making 3... THREE! We don't even try to be creative with running, refuse to run outside of shotgun, and then just exclusively throw when we get to the 50 - opponent's 30 yard line.

 

If it was just OL talent, the Bills wouldn't have the 3rd highest yards per carry in the NFL when running from under center. They just CHOOSE not to.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

This is awesome thanks. My favorite part was the explanation of EPA as I’ve heard it used but wanted more context for how it relates.

 

Again, this further validates what I’ve been saying about the run game. We’ve been so used to seeing Allen march up and down the field slinging the rock that when we run the ball for zero yards we say run less, pass more. 
 

In reality we’re seeing plenty of pass attempts to damage to our offenses overall success. The bills must find a way to run the ball for positive gains when they need to, and not rely solely on the passing game to get it done.

 

21 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

You can boil it down to three issues:

 

* An over reliance on shotgun

* A lack of a run game out of shotgun primarily due to vanilla scheme

* An over reliance on big plays to dig out of holes and then stalling out due to no run game.

 

To me the net of this is that Dorsey is way too enamored with Josh’s arm.  This then spills over to the rest of the offense that believes too much in Josh’s arm.

 

I have solidly joined the camp that says Dorsey is the problem (the film does not lie).  The Bills run scheme is pop warner and it is causing them to waste Josh’s talent.

As much as i love from playing under center, I don’t think your first point is as much of an issue as the second.

 

Running from the gun can be dangerous. But we’ve entirely remove Allen as a threat to keep the ball in zone reads, RPOs, QB power etc.

 

This in effects adds a defender to the mix when we do run the ball. A simple fix is to continue to do what they want, and have Allen keep the ball, or AT LEAST carry out a full speed fake. 
 

If they want to keep their current schemes, so be it. But as @HappyDays  mentioned and @HoofHearted suggested, small tweaks to motions, splits and the details within the run game could be enough to take what they’re doing and make it serviceable. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

 

I'm not sure there's been a more obnoxious whiner of the OL quality than me the last several years, but I don't think that has much impact on his points.

 

Good offenses (and good coordinators) will try & shore up those weaknesses with schemes & creative play designs. The Bills don't. Like he said, they run 2 basic concepts, essentially expecting to fail. 

 

Because they want shotgun to be their identity, they refuse to call formations that they actually have success running out of...  As he said, they base their ENTIRE run game on the 2 "least explosive" concepts imaginable (inside zone & duo), and even then, they run them in the most predictable & least creative ways imaginable ("straight downhill, into the jaws of hell" as he put it). 

 

Even if your OL talent stinks, you are deliberately handicapping yourself even further by doing this. Other teams that run out of shotgun don't do this, but we do. All these problems lead to the other big issue he discusses, where the Bills are now a "TD or nothing" team.

 

They're ranked 6th in drives ending in a TD, but ranked 31st in drives that result in a FG... only attempting 6 FGs the last 5 games, and only making 3... THREE! We don't even try to be creative with running, refuse to run outside of shotgun, and then just exclusively throw when we get to the 50 - opponent's 30 yard line.

 

If it was just OL talent, the Bills wouldn't have the 3rd highest yards per carry in the NFL when running from under center. They just CHOOSE not to.

I think thats definitely part of it

 

Our guys don't rank very well in terms of yards before contact which is why there's some disagreement wrt oline quality

 

The actual reasons are probably beyond my expertise😂😂

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills’ o-line talent isn’t that bad and is in all likelihood better than average at the moment. They have no injuries, and lines across the league are in way worse shape because of injuries/mediocrity. 

Have to agree to disagree there

 

 

[BigDingus]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think thats definitely part of it

 

Our guys don't rank very well in terms of yards before contact which is why there's some disagreement wrt oline quality

 

The actual reasons are probably beyond my expertise😂😂

 

You and me both brother 😅

 

Even with all the analytical football content I consume, I'll admit I'm nowhere close to an expert on these things. As critical as we are of players or coaches, Ken Dorsey has more football knowledge in his pinky finger than I'll ever have. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

It’s almost like some fans have said the static shotgun RPO (where Allen never actually keeps/runs the ball) isn’t working, especially when the Bills try to run outside with the atrocious blocking. 

 

Second drive of the Bengals game, the Bills run on 1st down, 2 yards. Get a pass interference, their shotgun run is blown up by DJ Reader for -1 yard, and then it’s pass, pass. 

 

So this is where the under center, play action, screen game to Cook conversation comes right back. 
 

Static 2x2 shotgun as Orlovsky has said. 
 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[WhoTom]

A lot of yards but not many points. What we have here is a "bend but don't break" offense.

 

[HoofHearted]

My favorite part was when he said we need to stop running zone schemes and instead copy schemes from teams who can actually run and then showed three clips of the Dolphins, 9ers, and Lions running zone schemes 😏.

[Mikie2times]

This is a really good video and I think it’s speaks in part to the disjointed nature of our offense. As some posters have said, it’s like we just pick our play calls randomly. They have no sequence or rhythm. It’s like we have 10 plays in a bag and we just reach in and grab them. 

2 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

My favorite part was when he said we need to stop running zone schemes and instead copy schemes from teams who can actually run and then showed three clips of the Dolphins, 9ers, and Lions running zone schemes 😏.

Should have stuck with the stats analysis 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Under Allen I just don’t see that the run game has ever been a foundational piece of what they’re trying to do. 
 

Against the Bengals, Cook got 6 carries, Murray got 2. 
 

Similar attempts against the Jaguars. 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Just for those who are interested. Crazy to see how the Bills are ranked so highly in many offensive metrics, yet still so low in PPG the last 5 weeks.

 

Edit - 6:36 in the video is where it gets interesting, breaking down how EPA is the PROBABILITY of scoring points (which the Bills are ranked #2 in), and how the Bills are "the best team in the league at taking a theoretically strong field position after a big play, and totally squandering it."

 

#1 in yards per carry when running from under center. 

 

#24 in the league when running from shotgun... The shotgun run design being called the worst in the league. 

[Billsturfwars]

It was also Ironic that they showed the Colts as an example of teams that can run effectively out of shotgun; our guy Moss who most in Buffalo lamented as a bust, is surprise surprise, running effectively.  Now I'm not saying Moss is a world beater, but we should hold our judgments on some players before we can see how terrible the scheming this coaching staff is coming up with.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Dorsey's signature. Could see it last year too.

Yup...Dorsey was garbage last year and nothing has changed.  Chad Hall could've called a better game.  Too bad Josh & Sean thought Ken was the answer....

[BigDingus]

2 hours ago, Billsturfwars said:

It was also Ironic that they showed the Colts as an example of teams that can run effectively out of shotgun; our guy Moss who most in Buffalo lamented as a bust, is surprise surprise, running effectively.  Now I'm not saying Moss is a world beater, but we should hold our judgments on some players before we can see how terrible the scheming this coaching staff is coming up with.

 

That segment was one of the most telling. Even though the Bills are objectively more successful running from under center, other teams also run prominently out of shotgun. The only difference is those other teams do so in more creative & confident ways, leading to their RBs still having success. 

 

We wasted 2 x 3rd round picks on Singletary & Moss, and a 2nd rounder on Cook, yet we still do nothing with these guys. We even traded away Moss + a 6th to get another RB in Hines, as if we had plans to utilize him in some unique way. Nope. 

 

Suddenly, Zack Moss is the 2nd leading rusher in the league, and with a team that runs from shotgun as well! With our QB & roster, RBs SHOULD have an easier time given that defenses prioritize defending the pass. Nope again!  

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

5th in offensive points scored and 18th in total points is the takeaway

 

Bass w the entirety of his misses in the last 5games contributes I would imagine

 

 

 

Man you will just not give up this EPA garbage.  You are going to die on that hill.  The last 5 weeks we have not been scoring.  There are 3 games that we scored big propping up that "5th in offensive points."  The team needs to be consistently better.  At this point they are consistently average.  

 

What did Bass miss, twice?  Yeah, I am sure that 6 points is really contributing.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Scott7975

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Man you will just not give up this EPA garbage.  You are going to die on that hill.  The last 5 weeks we have not been scoring.  There are 3 games that we scored big propping up that "5th in offensive points."  The team needs to be consistently better.  At this point they are consistently average.  

 

What did Bass miss, twice?  Yeah, I am sure that 6 points is really contributing.

How is it garbage lol, it's just more confirmation 

 

If it was garbage you'd expect a delta between offensive EPA and offensive production

 

Instead we have Bills offense 5th in offensive points scored and 3rd in EPA over the last 5 weeks

 

That's very consistent 

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

How is it garbage lol, it's just more confirmation 

 

If it was garbage you'd expect a delta between offensive EPA and offensive production

 

Instead we have Bills offense 5th in offensive points scored and 3rd in EPA over the last 5 weeks

 

That's very consistent 

 

Yes, consistently bad.  Try watching the games instead of the stat board.  They do nothing all game and then get a couple scores in the 4th quarter.  That is not good. Scoring 14, 18, 20 are 3 weeks of the last 5.  That is below average. That is not good by any means. 24 and 25 in the other two weeks is just barely top 10 average. 

 

I'd like to see the work that we are 5th in offensive points scored over the last 5 weeks.  Maybe I am wrong but I don't believe it until I actually see the work on it.  Haven't had time to watch the video yet.  Maybe its in there.  I just have a hard time believing it when we are 20th in average ppg over the last 5 weeks.  Even over the last 3 we are 13th which is barely above average.  

 

If you watch this team and think this offense is consistently good at scoring then I'd like some of what you are smoking.

[JerseyBills]

we need to dominate the broncos and get this crazy week over with. We're on the cusp of exploding on O

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes, consistently bad.  Try watching the games instead of the stat board.  They do nothing all game and then get a couple scores in the 4th quarter.  That is not good. Scoring 14, 18, 20 are 3 weeks of the last 5.  That is below average. That is not good by any means. 24 and 25 in the other two weeks is just barely top 10 average. 

 

I'd like to see the work that we are 5th in offensive points scored over the last 5 weeks.  Maybe I am wrong but I don't believe it until I actually see the work on it.  Haven't had time to watch the video yet.  Maybe its in there.  I just have a hard time believing it when we are 20th in average ppg over the last 5 weeks.  Even over the last 3 we are 13th which is barely above average.  

 

If you watch this team and think this offense is consistently good at scoring then I'd like some of what you are smoking.

So you haven't watched the video in the OP and even if you did, wouldn't believe the data that's being presented? 

 

 

3 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

we need to dominate the broncos and get this crazy week over with. We're on the cusp of exploding on O

I think folks are way more down on the team's prospects than is necessary rn 👍👍

 

There's enough reasons to believe they can turn things around

[Jrb1979]

59 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

How is it garbage lol, it's just more confirmation 

 

If it was garbage you'd expect a delta between offensive EPA and offensive production

 

Instead we have Bills offense 5th in offensive points scored and 3rd in EPA over the last 5 weeks

 

That's very consistent 

Since you watched the video you would see why EPA is so high and why the issues aren't likely to change anytime soon. 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Jrb1979

[Dr.Sack]

Best analysis I’ve heard outside of the Buffalo Rumblings guy who went on Sportstalk Saturday and said McDermott wants the offense to play slower to help his ailing defense.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Since you watched the video you would see why EPA is so high and why the issues aren't likely to change anytime soon. 

There are issues for sure, all phases

 

But again as far as predictive models go there is congruency between EPA and its constituent algorithms (and DVOA/dyar to a lesser extent imo) and what we see in actual terms re: the Bills

 

I like statistics...i don't think these models can fully capture the entirety of the NFL market but predictively they tend to be very accurate

[NoHuddleKelly12]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills’ o-line talent isn’t that bad and is in all likelihood better than average at the moment. They have no injuries, and lines across the league are in way worse shape because of injuries/mediocrity. 

This makes the drop-off % in our own pass rush getting home that much more glaring, unfortunately. (I know, I know, injuries, Von etc., but still)

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you haven't watched the video in the OP and even if you did, wouldn't believe the data that's being presented? 

 

I might believe it.  Depends on what it is.  When I have time to watch it, I will watch it.  Until then, EPA doesn't match the eyeball.

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

There are issues for sure, all phases

 

But again as far as predictive models go there is congruency between EPA and its constituent algorithms (and DVOA/dyar to a lesser extent imo) and what we see in actual terms re: the Bills

 

I like statistics...i don't think these models can fully capture the entirety of the NFL market but predictively they tend to be very accurate

 

EPA in a nutshell is predicting scoring chance per drive right?  I don't find that to be very accurate if we score high but rarely score.