"The Best NFL Offense that Can't Score Points" - Video Breakdown

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I might believe it.  Depends on what it is.  When I have time to watch it, I will watch it.  Until then, EPA doesn't match the eyeball.

 

EPA in a nutshell is predicting scoring chance per drive right?  I don't find that to be very accurate if we score high but rarely score.

Sort of. It's derived from Expected Points, which is basically a framework for how many points a team is expected to score on a given field position relative to down/distance, clock, etc. For example drives that begin inside your own 10 actually have negative EP because in that situation it's more likely your opponent actually scores next. 

 

Expected Points Added is just the difference in your Expected Points at the beginning of the play to the end of the play.

 

[Scott7975]

51 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Sort of. It's derived from Expected Points, which is basically a framework for how many points a team is expected to score on a given field position relative to down/distance, clock, etc. For example drives that begin inside your own 10 actually have negative EP because in that situation it's more likely your opponent actually scores next. 

 

Expected Points Added is just the difference in your Expected Points at the beginning of the play to the end of the play.

 

 

Do they show this stat per game?  Do you have a link?

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Do they show this stat per game?  Do you have a link?

This is Ben Baldwin's calculator

 

https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

 

14 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Just for those who are interested. Crazy to see how the Bills are ranked so highly in many offensive metrics, yet still so low in PPG the last 5 weeks.

 

Edit - 6:36 in the video is where it gets interesting, breaking down how EPA is the PROBABILITY of scoring points (which the Bills are ranked #2 in), and how the Bills are "the best team in the league at taking a theoretically strong field position after a big play, and totally squandering it."

 

What that really means is we will start scoring more. Its just that so many little things have kept us out of the endzone. 

 

McDorsey  need to simply the offense and go up tempo.

 

So this should be in the fire Dorsey thread 😂😂

 

i cant believe the coaches are this stupid. Dabol brought in the Tom Brady offense without Tom Brady. McDermott loves the run game but yet allows this nonsense. If he doesn't fire Dorsey and bring in a New system then he needs to go.

 

we should have brought in Greg Roman as running game coordinator, nobody better than him at designing a run scheme.

 

 

14 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Dorsey's signature. Could see it last year too.

 

Dabol too

 

 

13 hours ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Boy this guy's analysis makes one wonder what the heck our is OC doing.

 

he thinks he is smarter than everyone else and we dont need to run even though we really do.

 

 

[FireChans]

19 hours ago, HappyDays said:

The stats shown at the beginning are an indicator of bad defense and special teams. Like 5th best in TDs per drive since week 5, but only 18th in total points over that time span, that is clearly a time of possession stat. As Brett Kollmann points out, field position is another huge issue. Our offense has a middling run game and only one elite pass catcher, and it's being asked to execute perfectly on long drives with very few opportunities for explosive plays. That is not a recipe for success.

 

Good analysis of the run game schematic issues too. @HoofHearted pointed out that 2 of our 8 called runs versus Cincy featured a schematic flaw that literally drew the defender to the spot where they made the tackle.

 

And unfortunately I don't think the myriad of factors causing these issues are fixable at this point in the season. Pretty much our only chance of sustained success against decent teams right now is everyone on offense executing perfectly throughout the game, and that is just not a realistic ask.

This basically comes back to what some folks have been screaming for years.

 

Load up on offense. Cheat on defense if you have to (especially with a defensive HC who can turn day 3 picks into decent to good starters). Win games with an offense that outplays 30 other teams, and a defense that just needs to make a couple big plays.

 

The overall strategy of the Bills roster construction has been a failure. They tried to plateau the offense and build up the defense. It should have been the opposite.

[Jimmy Harris 69]

Unfortunately 13 (coach McD) is meddling to save his undermanned defense, and is just making things worse. It’s maddening that he doesn’t trust a wide open offense to take the pressure off his defense. He chooses complementary football” which is code for conservative football. Hunker down, don’t take risks and play the percentages. Well—-we are on the losing end of one score games. If wants to play ball  control, why don’t his coaches create effective running plays? Just copy San Francisco or better, hire a guy who knows how. His defense would be ok now if we had traded for a linebacker at the deadline. What good are 11 picks next year? His thinking is old, not in line with the rules in place. Instead of putting more talented athletic linebackers on the roster he spends millions on one dimensional special teamers (meanwhile the nfl is eliminating kick returns by rule). He is a good human being and an excellent coach, but he is not going to get us to the SB. The Bills are wasting golden time while 13 stubbornly grips the past. 

[Cash]

22 hours ago, HappyDays said:

The stats shown at the beginning are an indicator of bad defense and special teams. Like 5th best in TDs per drive since week 5, but only 18th in total points over that time span, that is clearly a time of possession stat. As Brett Kollmann points out, field position is another huge issue. Our offense has a middling run game and only one elite pass catcher, and it's being asked to execute perfectly on long drives with very few opportunities for explosive plays. That is not a recipe for success.

 

Good analysis of the run game schematic issues too. @HoofHearted pointed out that 2 of our 8 called runs versus Cincy featured a schematic flaw that literally drew the defender to the spot where they made the tackle.

 

And unfortunately I don't think the myriad of factors causing these issues are fixable at this point in the season. Pretty much our only chance of sustained success against decent teams right now is everyone on offense executing perfectly throughout the game, and that is just not a realistic ask.

I think some of them are fixable this season. Design of shotgun runs? Maybe not so much. But some of it is just down to play calling, and especially play calling right as we cross midfield. The under center run game is still working, and play action from under center is crushing it. Mixing in more plays from under center in that area of the field could make a big difference, and should be very doable. 
 

How much of the problem is McDermott wanting to be conservative? After last week, I’m thinking not a ton, or at least not directly. McDermott wants to be too conservative sometimes, that much is true. But he’s not stupid, and he’s clearly not happy with the way the offense is performing. He’ll never blame anyone else publicly, so it’s hard to know what he really thinks. My hope is that he’s ready to give someone else a try at play calling at this point. 
 

I’ve given up hope that Dorsey will improve as a play caller. I don’t see much benefit in firing him now, unless things have gotten so bad that it would be a morale boost. But I think a five game swoon is enough to give a crack to one of the other offensive staffers with play calling experience. 
 

Note: I don’t think there’s need to publicly advertise it if/when Dorsey is stripped of play calling duties. But I would make sure McDermott and Dorsey both have answers ready in case it’s asked in a press conference. 

[NewEra]

15 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

How is it garbage lol, it's just more confirmation 

 

If it was garbage you'd expect a delta between offensive EPA and offensive production

 

Instead we have Bills offense 5th in offensive points scored and 3rd in EPA over the last 5 weeks

 

That's very consistent 

Brett explained the EPA-  one big play with a long field to go = high epa.  The following 3 and out a much lower effect on the EPA meaning the failed drive is still +2.5 epa even though the drive was a failure.  Lots of drives starting deep in our own territory then some big plays followed by 💩 and a punt = positive EPA…..when it’s actually 💩 

[The Jokeman]

On 11/11/2023 at 1:00 PM, NickelCity said:

Dorsey's signature. Could see it last year too.

I'd blame turnovers more. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Brett explained the EPA-  one big play with a long field to go = high epa.  The following 3 and out a much lower effect on the EPA meaning the failed drive is still +2.5 epa even though the drive was a failure.  Lots of drives starting deep in our own territory then some big plays followed by 💩 and a punt = positive EPA…..when it’s actually 💩 

Yes I understand how it's calculated

 

Again if it was actually garbage we would expect to see a discrepancy between EPA and offensive production

 

 

[Yobogoya!]

20 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

My favorite part was when he said we need to stop running zone schemes and instead copy schemes from teams who can actually run and then showed three clips of the Dolphins, 9ers, and Lions running zone schemes 😏.

 

Pretty sure that segment was to show the contrast between the vanilla zone runs the Bills typically implement and some of the inserts, fold blocks and motions that those teams which have SUCCESSFUL run games are using much more often than we are.

 

I personally loved that part, because it showed the subtle yet very important differences between our run game and teams that are using the same concepts to far greater effect. 

[HardyBoy]

23 hours ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Boy this guy's analysis makes one wonder what the heck our is OC doing.

 

Interesting, because I'm taking something different away from that video...Josh Allen needs to play with better situational awareness and when they get within 10 yards of field goal range he needs to start taking check downs and higher percentage plays to get into field goal range...I don't know it's the coordinators fault there if he's calling pass plays with open short options that Allen is passing up to go for chunk plays when situational football says you should focus on getting into field goal range first and then hopefully get to take a shot if your first down play gets you 8 yards instead of the expected 4 yards...get under center at that point and do a play action if you want to take a shot or run because you're averaging almost 5 yards a carry when running under center...that last part is on Dorsey I guess, but Allen not hitting short options, which is the Bills version of a run game that's on Allen imo

[HoofHearted]

9 hours ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

Pretty sure that segment was to show the contrast between the vanilla zone runs the Bills typically implement and some of the inserts, fold blocks and motions that those teams which have SUCCESSFUL run games are using much more often than we are.

 

I personally loved that part, because it showed the subtle yet very important differences between our run game and teams that are using the same concepts to far greater effect. 

We run split zone and outside zone just like those teams do too, and guess what, they run inside zone just like we do. I’ll do a full breakdown of our run schemes sometime this week.

[HardyBoy]

16 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

We run split zone and outside zone just like those teams do too, and guess what, they run inside zone just like we do. I’ll do a full breakdown of our run schemes sometime this week.

 

I'd love to understand if it's a function of Allen not realizing the importance of gaining 10 more yards when you get to the 45 vs almost anywhere else on the field...the odds of a 48 yard fg vs a 58 yard fg going in is significant...like he needs to play some poker I think with someone like Phil Helmute to help explain pot odds I think.

 

Maybe it's Dorsey too, but going for a big play when you're backed up makes sense...going for one when you're on the edge of field goal range doesn't...between the 45 and the 30, the goal in my mind is get to the 30 with as little risk as possible...then open the offense back up once you're in safe field goal range.

 

That is the message I took from that video... it's not that the shotgun run plays are bad so much, it's that you have plays that work so much better for you to get from the 45 to the 30...that is when they should be running under center, do a playaction to force the defense to sprint backwards and then throw the check down short to get to the 30...imo

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

Maybe it's Dorsey too, but going for a big play when you're backed up makes sense...going for one when you're on the edge of field goal range doesn't...between the 45 and the 30, the goal in my mind is get to the 30 with as little risk as possible...then open the offense back up once you're in safe field goal range.

 

That is the message I took from that video... it's not that the shotgun run plays are bad so much, it's that you have plays that work so much better for you to get from the 45 to the 30...that is when they should be running under center, do a playaction to force the defense to sprint backwards and then throw the check down short to get to the 30...imo

 

It's not just the shotgun run plays, it's the plays they call out of that formation without ever mixing it up. They also have substantially more success running under center, which all points to Dorsey not really putting much though or effort into developing the run game. 

 

So when we get to this midfield spots, we stall out just standing back & passing every play. We don't make it easier on Josh, and playcalling suggests we want to stop running as soon as we can. It leads to punts in the opponent's territory, nearly dead last in FGs, and wasted drives. 

 

Earlier in the year, I kept saying the Bills were the safest team to commit turnovers against, as we rarely punished teams for committing them. I didn't know why that was, but you rarely saw them score points off turnovers. If anything, you got to see the defense stop a potential scoring drive or possibly flip field position, but rarely did we use those extra possessions to put points on the board. 

 

Sadly, we just don't get turnovers at all anymore... so that's not an issue 😓