Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year

[Drew21PA]

11 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Hasn't he always played like this? 

Right?

 

but let’s continue to try to change who he is so you know he plays worse.

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

I’ve gotten a kick outta these threads evaluating Allen he’s probably the most scrutinized QB in the league as I never really have gotten the hatred for the guy but maybe it was just predraft stuff like Nick Wright. 
To put Allen’s greatness in perspective if the Bills organization had taken any other single QB in 2018 or 2019 Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane would be unemployed right now with how many picks they’ve missed on. 

[MJS]

11 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Hasn't he always played like this? 

Yes, and defenses are taking advantage of that. You have to be able to evolve your game.

[pocoboy]

10 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

When he takes the checkdowns   until the safeties move up, he’s unstoppable. 

 

One big trouble this season has been that he's not accurate on the open deep shots that are there. I wonder if they're trying so hard to run reps throwing short that he's not getting the reps to develop the timing over the top with his receivers.

Edited November 9, 2023 by pocoboy

[Malazan]

29 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

 

One big trouble this season has been that he's not accurate on the open deep shots that are there. I wonder if they're trying so hard to run reps throwing short that he's not getting the reps to develop the timing over the top with his receivers.

 

That's something that is most effective if it happens in the offseason prior to camp. It happened in 2020. I've not been aware that it's happened since. Prior to that Josh's deep ball accuracy was an issue and it's become more and more of an issue the further from 2020 we get. 

[Beck Water]

 

It may be a good analysis.  But wasn't Ben Solak the guy who said if Josh Allen succeeded as an NFL QB it would defeat math itself or something like that?

 

So keep your salt shaker handy.

 

But, the part about having guys open and taking the riskier throws instead of being patient and efficient, is what several of us have been saying most of the season.

 

27 minutes ago, Malazan said:

That's something that is most effective if it happens in the offseason prior to camp. It happened in 2020. I've not been aware that it's happened since. Prior to that Josh's deep ball accuracy was an issue and it's become more and more of an issue the further from 2020 we get. 

 

I think it has to do a fair bit with the receivers getting jammed up and held (uncalled). 

 

It was made a big issue in 2019.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Beck Water

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Not even film will convince you.  

I watch plenty of film 😂😂

 

But go ahead who's playing better rn

[Royale with Cheese]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I watch plenty of film 😂😂

 

But go ahead who's playing better rn

 

There's plenty of film where Allen is struggling. 

The league overall is struggling offensively.  I honestly don't think there is an elite offense right now.  But that doesn't mean that Allen and the Bills get a pass...they aren't scoring.  They aren't good on offense right now.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

There's plenty of film where Allen is struggling. 

The league overall is struggling offensively.  I honestly don't think there is an elite offense right now.  But that doesn't mean that Allen and the Bills get a pass...they aren't scoring.  They aren't good on offense right now.  

No no no don't do that

 

Make you claim. Who's playing better right now?

[The Firebaugh Kid]

14 hours ago, Success said:

Paralysis by analysis.

 

Everyone is overcomplicating things.  This team has better talent than most teams in the league, and one of the best QB's.

 

Know the secret?  They need to have fun again. It's a game. Play it loose.  Have fun.

 

I was just saying this to a friend. 

Dabolls scheme had alot more fun elements though, I wonder if they miss the jet sweeps, aggressive nature, and trickery. Loved watching Josh catch td passes etc. They seem pretty vanilla now. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No no no don't do that

 

Make you claim. Who's playing better right now?

 

What offense is playing better than the Bills right now?

 

Should we continue this discussion?  You already stated that nothing will convince you otherwise so why are talking about this then?

[Airseven]

3 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I’ve gotten a kick outta these threads…

 

evaluating

 

Allen he’s probably the most…

 

scrutinized

 

QB in the league as I never really have gotten the…

 

hatred

 

for the guy but maybe it was just predraft stuff like Nick Wright. 

Stick with evaluation. It’s fair. He’s not in a protective bubble.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

What offense is playing better than the Bills right now?

 

Should we continue this discussion?  You already stated that nothing will convince you otherwise so why are talking about this then?

Give it a shot, I'm not unreasonable

 

any QB playing better

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I don't want to see Josh take check-downs or play "efficient." Unleash the beast!

the last few games last year he was extremely inefficient, especially vs cinci. Enjoy! 

[DCOrange]

I think between this and Cover1's analysis, we're left with sort of a conundrum in terms of what you want in an offensive coordinator. Do you want to lean into what makes Allen who he is and create sort of a pedal to the medal offense that is very high risk-high reward in terms of the play design, or do you want a coach that can try to reign in some of the bad stuff (and likely some of the good stuff too) that comes along with Allen playing the way he wants?

 

I tend to lean towards the latter personally, which seems to be Dorsey's thinking as well but I think there's a very fair argument to be made in both directions. When I watch Solak's video, I tend to agree with his takeaways that Allen is making the wrong decision in a lot of cases (and the very damning stats re: his accuracy on deep balls this year definitely matches the eye test). Cover1 seems to place more of the blame on Dorsey, but it seems to me like a lot of the plays where he's blaming Dorsey are issues of Allen beginning the play by already reading the wrong side of the field or forcing passes instead of just taking the easy yards to keep the chains moving.

 

I definitely understand the frustrations that people are having with Dorsey though, but I also think a decent amount of it simply boils down to defenses playing a lot of two high looks to defend the deep ball while Allen simultaneously struggles to throw the deep ball and also wants to throw it deep as much as possible, which isn't really a great combination.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Give it a shot, I'm not unreasonable

 

any QB playing better

Burrow played much better last week for sure. 

[Royale with Cheese]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Give it a shot, I'm not unreasonable

 

any QB playing better

 

This is what's going to happen.

 

I'm going to give you QB's that have lead their offenses to scoring a good amount of points over the last few weeks.

 

You're going to respond that scoring is not an indicator of how well an offense is playing, advanced EPA stats are more important indicators.

 

Then it will go back and forth of me saying 20 ppg isn't good and you saying it is.  Doesn't sound like a good time does it? 

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is what's going to happen.

 

I'm going to give you QB's that have lead their offenses to scoring a good amount of points over the last few weeks.

 

You're going to respond that scoring is not an indicator of how well an offense is playing, advanced EPA stats are more important indicators.

 

Then it will go back and forth of me saying 20 ppg isn't good and you saying it is.  Doesn't sound like a good time does it? 

 

 

Don't act.like you wouldn't like it 

 

 

[Shemp]

"I've got to be better."🤢

[Bruffalo]

15 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

The bottom line is that the tape doesn’t lie, but stats often do lie because there’s more to the story. Anybody who thinks that he hasn’t regressed since 2021 is just in denial, or maybe blind.

What changed after 2021 I wonder?  

 

Maybe the rookie OC who looks like he's calling plays out of a hat with no rhythm except for consistently calling a shotgun run that works 15% of the time? 

 

That tracks to me. Dorsey got figured out in the middle of last season and cannot or will not pivot in an effective way.  

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Don't act.like you wouldn't like it 

 

 

 

If you get me high then yeah probably.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

14 hours ago, Success said:

Paralysis by analysis.

 

Everyone is overcomplicating things.  This team has better talent than most teams in the league, and one of the best QB's.

 

Know the secret?  They need to have fun again. It's a game. Play it loose.  Have fun.

 

I was just saying this to a friend. 

Dabolls scheme had alot more fun elements though, I wonder if they miss the jet sweeps, aggressive nature, and trickery. Loved watching Josh catch td passes etc. They seem pretty vanilla now. 

Also, wouldn't you want a scheme tailored to your qb's tendencies, not make him a game manager? I realize the defense plays a role in whats open but....

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If you get me high then yeah probably.

 

dunno if you already heard this or have time but this is Bruce Nolan's podcast, he's a good follow for Bills content imo

he has a composite QB ranking called QBSTEW that's an amalgam of a bunch of different relevant metrics

spoiler alert it has Allen at 1 as well

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/buffalo-rumblings-for-buffalo-bills-fans/id1260431411?i=1000634221650

[Never NEVER Give-up]

 

Side by side, Kelly vs. Josh.  People need to breathe.  The trolling is sickening.  Step back and take a walk if it's bothering you too much.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Burrow played much better last week for sure. 

Burrow had much better O line play; much better WR play and better offensive coaching.  Yet it took a 4th quarter Bills fumble at the Bengal's 10 yard line and the Buffalo D's inability to get the ball back to the Bills offense that likely won Burrow & the Bengals the game.

 

 

16 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Oh yeah, I forgot. Josh can do no wrong. It's everybody else's fault.

 

He signed the big money contract. No excuses offered. None accepted.

Big money?  You mean less then Rogers, Wilson, Murry, Jackson, Watson & Herbert and about $3 million more per year then Danial Jones.  That BIG MONEY?

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Burrow had much better O line play; much better WR play and better offensive coaching.  Yet it took a 4th quarter Bills fumble at the Bengal's 10 yard line and the Buffalo D's inability to get the ball back to the Bills offense that likely won Burrow & the Bengals the game.

 

 

here are the QB things Burrow did better:

1) completions

2) completion %

3) passing yards 

4) passing TDs 

5) passer rating 

6) YPA

7) INTs 

8 Wins

 

Josh was a better running back than Burrow though. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

here are the QB things Burrow did better:

1) completions

2) completion %

3) passing yards 

4) passing TDs 

5) passer rating 

6) YPA

7) INTs 

😎 W

 

Josh was a better running back than Burrow though. 

Thought exercise:  switch Burrow & Allen last Sunday night and who do you think wins the game and how do the stats shake out? I'm confident Allen's wins the game, wins all the passing stats AND would still have been the better runner.

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Thought exercise:  switch Burrow & Allen last Sunday night and who do you think wins the game and how do the stats shake out? I'm confident Allen's wins the game, wins all the passing stats AND would still have been the better runner.

 

 

Of course you are confident in this hypothetical and impossible to prove scenario and it’s outcome. 
 

I don’t need a thought exercise thanks, I’m just going to stick with reality and what actually happened. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Of course you are confident in this hypothetical and impossible to prove scenario and it’s outcome. 
 

I don’t need a thought exercise thanks, I’m just going to stick with reality and what actually happened. 

Then you need to think a little deeper.  Comparing two QB's in a head to head game without comparing the talent and coaching around them is silly and misleading. It leads to notions like Brock Purdy is an MVP candidate who is one of the best QB's in the NFL.

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Then you need to think a little deeper.  Comparing two QB's in a head to head game without comparing the talent and coaching around them is silly and misleading. It leads to notions like Brock Purdy is an MVP candidate who is one of the best QB's in the NFL.

 

 

Nope those stats for QBs are pretty tried tested and true in comparing qb play. Not silly or Misleading. 
 

Purdy has been playing great. There is no doubt about it. 

[Jauronimo]

13 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh leads the league in INTs. The offense over the past 5 weeks has averaged 10 pts through 3 quarters. Analysts are scrutinizing his game, calling for his OC to make changes. Message board video reviews have never been so popular. Josh Allen, right now, is not playing QB at a level above everyone else. That sounded silly just typing it.

Tell that to Environmental Protection Agency.  

[DapperCam]

13 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh leads the league in INTs. The offense over the past 5 weeks has averaged 10 pts through 3 quarters. Analysts are scrutinizing his game, calling for his OC to make changes. Message board video reviews have never been so popular. Josh Allen, right now, is not playing QB at a level above everyone else. That sounded silly just typing it.

Allen is tied for the lead in INTs. Hurts and Mahomes each have 1 less than him. Tua has 2 less than him.

 

I don’t agree with the statement he’s playing way better than any other QB, but his counting stats are basically the same as all the other top QBs. One could argue he has the weakest supporting cast of the group (definitely weaker than Tua and Hurts who are supported by top 5 running games in the league).

 

You are too critical of Allen specifically, who is playing pretty well. As opposed to the offense as a whole which is kind of bipolar.

[reddogblitz]

9 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I see what your saying but no one should ever expect Brady results from any QB that’s playing. I look at Josh more like a Big Ben type or a modern day version of John Elway , Brett Favre. 
 

Allen definitely needs more help he needs a better Oline an elite RB to lean on and definitely better Wrs other then Diggs. McBeane has failed him in my opinion. 

 

Everyone would love Josh and Buffalo to have better players. But I think maybe we've come to that point when you have an elite QB and have to back up the Brinks Truck in order to keep him.  Leaves less money to go out and get other elite players to put around him.  I know Green Bay ran into this with Aaron Rodgers.  There's only so much $alary cap money to go around and a lot of it goes to Josh.  

[Brand J]

23 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Allen is tied for the lead in INTs. Hurts and Mahomes each have 1 less than him. Tua has 2 less than him.

 

I don’t agree with the statement he’s playing way better than any other QB, but his counting stats are basically the same as all the other top QBs. One could argue he has the weakest supporting cast of the group (definitely weaker than Tua and Hurts who are supported by top 5 running games in the league).

 

You are too critical of Allen specifically, who is playing pretty well. As opposed to the offense as a whole which is kind of bipolar.

I’d give Allen a solid B in regards to the whole season. Out of 9 games, he had 2 that were outstanding (MIA, LV), 1 that was “burn the film bad” (NYJ), and the rest ranged from “did enough to win” or “didn’t do enough.”
 

The disjointed offense stems from a lack of a running game and a pass attack that’s too aggressive at times, opting for lower percentage completions over higher ones.
 

You had a QB outwardly expressing to the media that maybe he needs to think less and just play football. Despite having a healthy offense, the Bills are 2-3 in their last 5 games, largely because the offense has sputtered until the 4th. I think I’m fair in my assessment of Allen’s play and that he wasn’t playing at a level above any other QB in the game - a point to which you agreed.

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

dunno if you already heard this or have time but this is Bruce Nolan's podcast, he's a good follow for Bills content imo

he has a composite QB ranking called QBSTEW that's an amalgam of a bunch of different relevant metrics

spoiler alert it has Allen at 1 as well

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/buffalo-rumblings-for-buffalo-bills-fans/id1260431411?i=1000634221650

 

There's lies, there's damn lies, and then there's statistics. Stats are for losers.  We're not winning enough.  Our QB has played a significant role in that ie Jets game and Cheats game.  The QBs job is to win, not excel in propeller head stats.

 

Do you think Josh cost us the Jets game?   If we had won we'd be in 1st place in the AFC East.  You are what your record says you are.

 

Of course it's not all his fault. There's plenty of that go around all the way from Terry to the water boy.  But QB touches the football on every play and has the biggest impact.  He's got the big money contract.  It's fair to criticize him when he screws up as well as give accolades when he plays well which he has also a lot this year.  Just win baby.

Edited November 9, 2023 by reddogblitz

[CincyBillsFan]

41 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Everyone would love Josh and Buffalo to have better players. But I think maybe we've come to that point when you have an elite QB and have to back up the Brinks Truck in order to keep him.  Leaves less money to go out and get other elite players to put around him.  I know Green Bay ran into this with Aaron Rodgers.  There's only so much $alary cap money to go around and a lot of it goes to Josh.  

First, when we had the opportunity to load up on the O line & skill players like the Chiefs, Eagles & Bengal's all did during their elite QB's rookie deals, we didn't.  Other then Diggs who did we sign?  Instead the Bills out their money & draft picks into the defense.  A defense that was primarily responsible for our exits from the playoffs in 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022.

 

And last I looked Allen is the 9th highest paid QB in the NFL and is likely to drop to 10th once Lawrence gets his deal.

 

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

49 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Everyone would love Josh and Buffalo to have better players. But I think maybe we've come to that point when you have an elite QB and have to back up the Brinks Truck in order to keep him.  Leaves less money to go out and get other elite players to put around him.  I know Green Bay ran into this with Aaron Rodgers.  There's only so much $alary cap money to go around and a lot of it goes to Josh.  

There’s a draft they can do better at

[CincyBillsFan]

14 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh leads the league in INTs. The offense over the past 5 weeks has averaged 10 pts through 3 quarters. Analysts are scrutinizing his game, calling for his OC to make changes. Message board video reviews have never been so popular. Josh Allen, right now, is not playing QB at a level above everyone else. That sounded silly just typing it.

For what it's worth Allen also leads the league in total TD's and QBR rating.  Allen is in fact playing better then almost every the other QB in the NFL.  And yet the Bills are still losing which is the crux of the problem.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

 

Side by side, Kelly vs. Josh.  People need to breathe.  The trolling is sickening.  Step back and take a walk if it's bothering you too much.

You’re joking right??? Like this is troll? 

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Nope those stats for QBs are pretty tried tested and true in comparing qb play. Not silly or Misleading. 
 

Purdy has been playing great. There is no doubt about it. 

Did you watch the Bengals and Vikings games people in San Francisco are talking about starting Sam Darnold