Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

I don't want to see Josh take check-downs or play "efficient." Unleash the beast!

Yeah!  First downs are boring!!

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Complete with a FA at Left Guard, and a rookie at RG! Don’t worry, Spencer Brown has it all locked down at RT.
 

Honestly, Allen threw for 35 touchdowns last year with: Diggs, Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox and the ghosts of Cole Beasley and John Brown.

 

That is freaking amazing. 

This year he’s 2nd in TD passes halfway through the season, and has added another 6 on the ground. 

Nobody can convince me he isn't easily playing the position better than anyone rn

 

Guy just does more w less 

[Dr.Sack]

Josh needs to recognize his arm limitations. No other QB tries the honey hole cover 2 beater to Davis. It’s the definition of insanity. Just limit those unforced picks and find the 2nd read, and on occasion be consistent in climbing the pocket with down field eye vision, too often we see Josh bail out to the right, or become a scrambler up the middle and drop his eyes. 

[reddogblitz]

47 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Hey Josh, it’s the NFL in 2023, and we want you to be accurate on long balls.

 

And to help you do that we have Stefon Diggs, holdover Gabe Davis, and a 5th rounder who we forgot was even on the team until 3 games ago.

 

And then we brought in some weapons for you:

 

5’6” 170 pound Deonte Harty

 

Career journeyman Trent Sherfield

 

And a 6’3” 240 pound Tight End without the Brock Bowers wheels. 
 

Now get out there sport and make it happen! 
 

And if you show us you can do it, we’ll throw in some 33-year old Latavius Murray in the slot for you! 

 

 

 

Oh yeah, I forgot. Josh can do no wrong. It's everybody else's fault.

 

He signed the big money contract. No excuses offered. None accepted.

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Success said:

Paralysis by analysis.

 

Everyone is overcomplicating things.  This team has better talent than most teams in the league, and one of the best QB's.

 

Know the secret?  They need to have fun again. It's a game. Play it loose.  Have fun.

 

Everybody on offense seems to be thinking a lot out there. Makes it so they aren’t reacting. Everything is disjointed.

[Nelius]

I think there’s something to be taken from this, even if it’s a matter of just a few less risky throws. Why is he pushing so much risk? He’s been an ice cold killer in the past that showed the necessary patience to be the best, and I don’t buy the opinion of some dorks that his mental game regressed, which frankly makes little sense. As if people just forget things and grow more uncomfortable with experience in their trade. He’s not trusting something in this offense. 

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Nobody can convince me he isn't easily playing the position better than anyone rn

 

Guy just does more w less 

Josh Allen is easily playing the QB position better than anyone else in the league right now? Guys, we have to do better than to make statements like this that obviously aren’t true. We all love Allen, but he’s making it tough on himself and the offense in many instances.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

3 hours ago, JohnRVA said:

Pretty fair analysis of guys being open and Josh taking the higher risk throw. He gives multiple examples from this year and breaks down the routes.

 

 

 

there are too many possibilities for the WRs in the passing game and Josh and the WRs have to be on the same page to make it work. Basically the offense is too complex and need s to be simplified like they did for Tampa because they only had a few days to prepare.

 

they need stay with the hurry up, more RPOs, play action and actually running the ball a little more.

 

 

[Old Coot]

Nice breakdown.

 

On the early analysis of Josh's interceptions I noticed that Josh tends to stare his receiver down. Good opponents will pick that up on tape and coach their DBs to follow Josh's eyes.

 

I did not notice Josh doing this last year. It may be a function of the quick reads built into Dorsey's offense which may in turn be a function of our OL not being the best.

 

Josh previously took I think 3.5 secs to throw and now he may be down to 2.5 secs. Josh got that extra second not by the OL but by Josh's scrambling.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh Allen is easily playing the QB position better than anyone else in the league right now? Guys, we have to do better than to make statements like this that obviously aren’t true. We all love Allen, but he’s making it tough on himself and the offense in many instances.

Easily

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/108725/2023-nfl-midseason-awards-leaders

[Brand J]

41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Easily

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/108725/2023-nfl-midseason-awards-leaders

Josh leads the league in INTs. The offense over the past 5 weeks has averaged 10 pts through 3 quarters. Analysts are scrutinizing his game, calling for his OC to make changes. Message board video reviews have never been so popular. Josh Allen, right now, is not playing QB at a level above everyone else. That sounded silly just typing it.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Oh yeah, I forgot. Josh can do no wrong. It's everybody else's fault.

 

He signed the big money contract. No excuses offered. None accepted.

Well since we want to become an offense predicated on checking down now, Diggs is getting his usual volume (I’d argue he needs even more), Kincaid is working underneath, Shakir catches 92% of everything thrown at him, is dumping to Cook more often the next level to be pulled? 

[4merper4mer]

7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Maybe the difference was back then he had Beasley as the underneath outlet that he felt very comfortable with.  Kincaid may be sliding into that role, but not quite there yet.

 

Think to there's something either Allen feels this need to look for Diggs too often or Dorsey is designing the plays in such a way that it forces him to look  for Diggs way to often.

It definitely can’t possibly ever plausibly be conceivable that Josh could ever be I’ll prepared or make a mistake.  It’s Diggs mind games and Dorsey’s ineptitude forcing poor Josh into doing things.

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Nobody can convince me…….

That’s the way most reasonable posts start.

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Easily

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/108725/2023-nfl-midseason-awards-leaders

 

That's the most accurate (in my opinion) assessment I've read. It does not look right by the eye (and results) test, but he is having a great season by objective measures (other than wins and losses). And therein lies the problem: the only measure that really counts is "wins and loses." To quote the great Bill Parcells, "You are what your record says you are." So, my take is that Josh is not the problem.

[Pete]

8 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Hasn't he always played like this? 

yes, but defenses evolve, so should Josh.  Jacksonville provided the blueprint how to beat Josh, using two high shell.  That was well over a year ago, and Josh still follows bad habits.  Josh needs to take what defense gives him, and go for the higher percentage throw.  If Josh took what defense gave him, we would march down field 5-15 yard chunks at a time.   Defenses would have to adjust.  After that, deep opportunities open up.  But Josh doesn't have patience for that, and still makes low percentage throws.  Evolve Josh, and Bills offense would be unstoppable

[Matt_In_NH]

8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

When he takes the checkdowns   until the safeties move up, he’s unstoppable. 

I am no NFL coach (obvisouly) but I am sure this is part of the solution.   The NFL game is not just go out and do what you do best all the time, its a chess match where you have to figure out what the defense is trying to do and counter that while also doing what you do best.  Eventually your plays will be there.  Everyone thinks this stuff is black and white...its all conservative or all high risk Josh....there is a middle ground that is actually what they need to find and what I believe they are searching for but so far it has not happened.  I believe Josh can have more yards and more TD's and less turnovers that he has typically if they figure out the right formula.  Right now, I think you have to look at Dorsey for the answers.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

9 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

This guy does an excellent job detailing JA’s weaknesses. JA may not be as good as we think he is. I guess all we can do is see if he improves on those weaknesses in the rest of the games this year.

 

Edit to add: Getting a kick at all of the posters who basically are saying that Josh is the second coming of Tom Brady, and he can do no wrong. I’m not totally surprised though, as has been noted before, there are tons of homer Bills fans with red & blue binders on.

 

The bottom line is that the tape doesn’t lie, but stats often do lie because there’s more to the story. Anybody who thinks that he hasn’t regressed since 2021 is just in denial, or maybe blind.

I see what your saying but no one should ever expect Brady results from any QB that’s playing. I look at Josh more like a Big Ben type or a modern day version of John Elway , Brett Favre. 
 

Allen definitely needs more help he needs a better Oline an elite RB to lean on and definitely better Wrs other then Diggs. McBeane has failed him in my opinion. 

[Chaos]

10 hours ago, julian said:

You’re gonna get 4300 total yards 40+  total TDs and 15 turnovers a year

 

this is who he is and it’s awesome, hopefully management doesn’t waste this blessing.

In Allen's career the Bills have been about the best at moving the ball  between the 20's.  Last year and this year the red zone offense was not nearly as good as the between the 20's offense.  Any analysis of Bills problems on offense, other than the red zone woes, is a complete waste of time, because there are no other problems, only a lack of perfection, which is a completely different thing.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Nobody can convince me he isn't easily playing the position better than anyone rn

 

Guy just does more w less 

 

Not even film will convince you.  

[RunTheBall]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

there are too many possibilities for the WRs in the passing game and Josh and the WRs have to be on the same page to make it work. Basically the offense is too complex and need s to be simplified like they did for Tampa because they only had a few days to prepare.

 

they need stay with the hurry up, more RPOs, play action and actually running the ball a little more.

 

 

We have a very complex offense that is easily predictable and looks vanilla. That’s a HUGE problem and it’s all Dorsey in terms of the scheme.

 

Josh’s problem is that he refuses to take the open short stuff. If he did that early, he gets in a rhythm and then the deeper stuff will open up as the defense adjusts to take away what’s working. The problem is this offense doesn’t seem to scheme against an opponents weaknesses. Dorsey just says “this is who we are, stop us” and teams have been doing that pretty regularly over the past 5 games.

 

There are other issues - the lack of running game, Gabe Davis sucking again, Harty not being used at all, etc.

 

I think one of the biggest issues was the huge emphasis in the beginning of the year of Josh running less. That was asinine, the guy needs to run to be his best. He’s not as good as Mahomes/Burrow at pre and post snap reads. He needs the threat of the run to open things up more for him.

 

Bottom line - It’s year 6 for Josh and he should have evolved by now to take what the defense gives him until it opens up what he wants to do (intermediate/deep shots). Why he refuses to do that idk because when he does, he’s nearly unstoppable.