2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

MVP is an award for most passing stats and either 1 or 2 seed.  Show me all the winners where they weren't either the 1 or 2 seed and top few in most passing stats.  

 

Allen has 9 more turnovers than Lamar, not 15.  Lamar has 13 turnovers.  Josh has 22.  About a half turnover over per game difference.  Lets be real about this.  Not all turnovers credited are the fault of the QB either.  I can't speak for Lamar but Allen has ints that are just unlucky. A batted ball that gets picked is just unlucky. A ball that hits the receiver in the hands or is stripped away from the receiver is just unlucky or on the receiver. A prayer as the half expires is meaningless.  Allen has a lot of ints but Lamar has a lot of fumbles.  Lamar has a lot more that he was lucky to not lose too which is... just lucky.

 

I am not trying to make a case for Allen to be MVP.  He isn't going to get it.  I'm just saying that the above is true. Lamar had an oooo ahhh game against Miami in a year that no QB is really deserving and became the media hype and thats why he is going to get it.  Josh regularly has those games against Miami including one this year.

 

I just realized it's 8 less turnovers I forgot to count the safety earlier that conveniently doesn't show up on the stat sheet. His team had another safety off a punt when they couldn't move the ball out from their own goal line against the Steelers too.

[miketysonslisp]

Why worry about the MVP so much? To preface- I think the bills with JA is a better team than Lamar on the bills, and also that the ravens with JA would be a better team than Lamar on the Ravens- so yes- JA is who I'd take as a QB over Lamar on either team if I was building a team from scratch.

 

Having said that JA didn't perform this year and doesn't deserve it and that's OK. In fact Allen won't get 1 vote and there's no grand conspiracy. Lamar plays in the AFC North- the best division in football by far and this year at a historical rate. The first time in 90 years all the teams over 500. He gets to see Myles Garret, TJ Watt, Hendrickson week in week out. He beat cincy with and without Burrow. He also this year went on to beat a raging hot Rams team, a hot Detroit team, an "unbeatable" (2 mvp candidate) 9ers team, and then another 2 mvp Miami team that was at the time contending for the #1 seed. With what weapons by the way? A OBJr with one leg, a rookie 5'9" wr? Both starting rbs hurt? his TE1 hurt? He is their whole offense without having stars like Ceedee lamb, Hill, CMC, A Brown, Diggs etc. He accounts for their rushing and passing and controlling the games so impactfully that they were able to beat high quality teams in the best division in football. It's why he will be MVP (with a good shot at unanimous again). Stats tell a small portion of the larger story. And his stats are fine by the way with less than complimentary pieces that other guys in the convo have at their disposal. It's just moreso that he was the best player on the best team in what is historically one of the best divisions in the NFL EVER. He absolutely deserves it. It's okay to appreciate Lamar's year even if we think JA is a better QB.

 

 

 

Edited January 9 by miketysonslisp

[Airseven]

33 minutes ago, miketysonslisp said:

Why worry about the MVP so much?

 

It's neat to craft arguments in a year without a consensus or standout and especially when other skill positions are viable candidates. Realistically, Allen is in the MVP conversation only among Bills fans.  

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

I feel this way about the TD vs turnover debate.  Every TD counts for 6 points.  Not every turnover provides the opposition with 6 points.  TDs are a much more important stat than turnovers.  

[Warcodered]

11 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

I feel this way about the TD vs turnover debate.  Every TD counts for 6 points.  Not every turnover provides the opposition with 6 points.  TDs are a much more important stat than turnovers.  

Yeah, hell Allen's second turnover against the Dolphins was actually more of a positive than a negative, that's ridiculously unlikely but. 🤷‍♂️

Edited January 9 by Warcodered

[transplantbillsfan]

23 hours ago, VW82 said:

I still can't get over the fact that so many of you thought Allen was good yesterday. Beyond his four turnovers, one of his "good" plays was a fluky throw off a helmet that happened to fall into the back of the endzone for a TD. 

 

I hate that I'm now coming off as a hater because I'm not. I love Allen, but this thread is making me crazy and questioning some posters grasp on reality. Every week it's the same thing. We excuse every Allen mistake. It's someone else's fault every time. Gabe ran the wrong way (even though he ran into wide open space in the endzone). Wilkens just made a great play so it's not Josh's fault he fumbled.. Throwing an INT on 4th down was the "right" decision. Throwing it into play with the clock winding to zero was just giving us a chance and not sacrificing points. Give me a break. 

 

Josh is a top 5ish player in the league. He has the talent to be the best player. But we fall over ourselves making excuses for him at every turn and it's maddening. 

 

I dunno man. There's a middle ground here.

 

You understand that Allen set another "no one's ever done this!" record on Sunday night, right???

 

As it is, I was intrigued by Joe Marino's All-22 analysis that I think you should listen to. He begins it by pretty seriously criticizing Josh for his 2 interceptions and then his end of half play.

 

Then he goes in an interesting direction I didn't expect. Watch it and remember this is a guy who's actually making a living watching film, scouting players and talking about it.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

23 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

No one will be happier than me if he has an MVP season. He just has to have a better year for that to happen. 2020 or 2021 Allen might have been good enough to win it this year.

I'm just hoping he can take that 4th quarter magic and string it together on a run for the next 4 games. All will definitely be forgotten then.

 

2021 Allen???? Dude... did you actually watch the Bills in 2021???

 

Oh... and I call your bluff... I think it would really get under your skin if Allen wins MVP.

[DapperCam]

I think ultimately Allen will finish with a lot of 2nd place votes, and possibly finish 2nd in MVP voting. Not that it matters much.

[Punch]

He's definitely not winning it but the case for him being included in the discussion is apparent. All the disassociated high minded posters on this board arguing disproportionately against even the discussion of Allen's candidacy are ridiculous.

 

There's far too much credence paid to what amounts to overly conservative offense, MVP voters and analysts, as a whole, don't credit high risk playmaking as they once did. Allen attempts a lot of high risk plays because he's capable of making them, and he does so more often that not. We all watched as Tua needed to make game breaking throws the entire 2nd half on Sunday Night and he simply can't make them. Mike McDaniel acknowledged as much during the postgame on the ill fated throw to Claypool that was intercepted. It was a pathetic attempt.

 

He's often compared to Brett Favre and John Elway, and the comparison is appropriate. Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford are capable of making many of the types of throws Allen can but they can't run like Allen and they both have high level offensive strategists and talent surrounding them--- or in the case of Mahomes, he has historically had that talent around him, but not this year.

 

Josh Allen isn't going to win 2023 MVP, but for god's sakes, he's one of the greatest football players to ever play the game and you're wasting your life trying to complain on the godamned internet with other fans of the team. Enjoy it while it lasts, soon enough we'll be right back to Kelly Holcomb. But maybe that's what some of you want, he's efficient and doesn't turn the ball over. Nor does he win games, score TDs or entertain.

[LeGOATski]

If I had the choice of any QB in the history of the league in their prime to run my team, I'm choosing Josh Allen.

 

He is the personification of football.

[BigDingus]

12 hours ago, Airseven said:

 

Realistically, Allen is in the MVP conversation only among Bills fans.  

 

Exactly. It's been this way for a while, though Allen was starting to be mentioned in some peoples' top 5 candidates after the Cowboys & KC games. But for some reason, people want to pretend the turnover narrative doesn't linger hard, especially among other fanbases.

 

I've noticed a lot that there's been way more anti-Allen backlash the last 1/4 of the season too. Any time you see a segment with an analyst or athlete talk positively about him, half the responses are insulting Allen's turnovers & awareness, or comparing him to their own QBs they feel don't get as much credit as Josh.

 

I just read a comment under Cowherd's video praising Allen after the fins game, saying something like "I'm sure if Dak had 8 more TDs but 12 more turnovers, the media would grease him up like they do Allen!" and it had nearly 1,000 likes. People can roll their eyes all they want, but that's not an outlier, that's the reality outside of Bills fans now.

Edited January 10 by BigDingus

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

I feel this way about the TD vs turnover debate.  Every TD counts for 6 points.  Not every turnover provides the opposition with 6 points.  TDs are a much more important stat than turnovers.  

I can’t remember any josh turnovers on our side of the field at all lol. It’s honestly pretty wild.  A lot of guys with less turnovers have put their team in much worse shape than Josh has 

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

If you put a backup QB on each team for a full season, then I believe the Ravens still win more games than the Bills.

 

FWIW the Ravens are 3-8 without Lamar the past 3 years compared to 28-12 with him. Hard to know what the Bills would be without Allen because he always plays. But in 2021 Baltimore were in the #1 seed spot when Lamar got hurt and missed the playoffs. Last year they were the #2 seed when he got hurt and ended up as a wildcard who was 1 and done. 

 

Lamar is pretty critical to the Ravens results. I am not sure there would be much difference between them without him and the Bills without Josh tbh...

22 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I can’t remember any josh turnovers on our side of the field at all lol. It’s honestly pretty wild.  A lot of guys with less turnovers have put their team in much worse shape than Josh has 

 

I can. Jets. Eagles. Chargers. And that is just from the top of my head.

[Billy Claude]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

FWIW the Ravens are 3-8 without Lamar the past 3 years compared to 28-12 with him. Hard to know what the Bills would be without Allen because he always plays. But in 2021 Baltimore were in the #1 seed spot when Lamar got hurt and missed the playoffs. Last year they were the #2 seed when he got hurt and ended up as a wildcard who was 1 and done. 

 

Lamar is pretty critical to the Ravens results. I am not sure there would be much difference between them without him and the Bills without Josh tbh...

 

I can. Jets. Eagles. Chargers. And that is just from the top of my head.

 

 

People's ability to only remember things that confirms their believes is always amazing to me.  In this case, the believe that Allen's turnovers don't actually hurt the Bills chances of winning. Even more amazing is the contortions people go thru to convince themselves that someone else is to  blame for every interception that he throws.

 

 

Edited January 10 by Billy Claude

[JoPoy88]

55 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I can’t remember any josh turnovers on our side of the field at all lol. It’s honestly pretty wild.  A lot of guys with less turnovers have put their team in much worse shape than Josh has 

guess that’s just bad memory then. Because there are several. 

[JoPoy88]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

FWIW the Ravens are 3-8 without Lamar the past 3 years compared to 28-12 with him. Hard to know what the Bills would be without Allen because he always plays. But in 2021 Baltimore were in the #1 seed spot when Lamar got hurt and missed the playoffs. Last year they were the #2 seed when he got hurt and ended up as a wildcard who was 1 and done. 

 

Lamar is pretty critical to the Ravens results. I am not sure there would be much difference between them without him and the Bills without Josh tbh...

 

I can. Jets. Eagles. Chargers. And that is just from the top of my head.

these are fans of the player not fans of the team @GunnerBill 

 

they infest this place and you have to constantly point them out. Doing god’s work.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

FWIW the Ravens are 3-8 without Lamar the past 3 years compared to 28-12 with him. Hard to know what the Bills would be without Allen because he always plays. But in 2021 Baltimore were in the #1 seed spot when Lamar got hurt and missed the playoffs. Last year they were the #2 seed when he got hurt and ended up as a wildcard who was 1 and done. 

 

Lamar is pretty critical to the Ravens results. I am not sure there would be much difference between them without him and the Bills without Josh tbh...

 

I can. Jets. Eagles. Chargers. And that is just from the top of my head.

 

Thats a fair point.  I'm not making a claim that the Ravens aren't better with Lamar as opposed to a backup.  Obviously they are.  Those losses don't mean all that much to me because sometimes its about who you play and when you play them.  Their ppg wasn't all that different IIRC because I looked it up at the time.  Lamar has also only won 1 playoff game and their backup was a fumble 6 at the goal line from winning the playoff game IIRC too.  Miami was the 2 seed almost all year and flirting with the 1 seed.  They ended as the 6th seed wildcard and will likely be 1 and done again too.  Anything can happen.  I still believe the Ravens team wins more games than the Bills team with backup QBs in a full season.

Edited January 10 by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thats a fair point.  I'm not making a claim that the Ravens aren't better with Lamar as opposed to a backup.  Obviously they are.  Those losses don't mean all that much to me because sometimes its about who you play and when you play them.  Their ppg wasn't all that different IIRC because I looked it up at the time.  Lamar has also only won 1 playoff game and their backup was a fumble 6 at the goal line from winning the playoff game IIRC too.  Miami was the 2 seed almost all year and flirting with the 1 seed.  They ended as the 6th seed wildcard and will likely be 1 and done again too.  Anything can happen.  I still believe the Ravens team wins more games than the Bills team with backup QBs in a full season.

 

With their own backups I agree. Because Huntley >>> Kyle Allen. But if you give them the same non-specific backup QB.... I dunno if you put Gardner Minschew on the Bills and Gardner Minschew on the Ravens I don't think there would be much difference. Might be a game either way.

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

FWIW the Ravens are 3-8 without Lamar the past 3 years compared to 28-12 with him. Hard to know what the Bills would be without Allen because he always plays. But in 2021 Baltimore were in the #1 seed spot when Lamar got hurt and missed the playoffs. Last year they were the #2 seed when he got hurt and ended up as a wildcard who was 1 and done. 

 

Lamar is pretty critical to the Ravens results. I am not sure there would be much difference between them without him and the Bills without Josh tbh...

 

I can. Jets. Eagles. Chargers. And that is just from the top of my head.

 

 

Ravens are 1-3 in the playoffs with Lamar.  900 yards, 55% completion, 3 TD and 5 INT, 5 fumbles.  His last game was 3 years ago. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/8/2024 at 2:06 PM, VW82 said:

Now we're claiming Josh didn't even have a bad game vs. Phins?? He had four turnovers including the one on downs to end the first half that robbed us of three points. We won because the defense generated two turnovers and shut out the Phins in the second half, and because Harty ran a punt return back 97 yards. 

 

I just don't understand why we need to distort the truth like this week after week. It's okay to admit Josh was all over the place this season, good and bad. You can't just look at TDs and nothing else with no context. 

 

Forget NFL MVP, the Bills defense was the MVP of the team this year.

That stop at the goal line was incredible and would’ve been a TD 80% of the time. James Cook also dropped a surefire TD pass as well. He didn’t play as bad as people think. Just not on par with his usual games against Miami at home. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thats a fair point.  I'm not making a claim that the Ravens aren't better with Lamar as opposed to a backup.  Obviously they are.  Those losses don't mean all that much to me because sometimes its about who you play and when you play them.  Their ppg wasn't all that different IIRC because I looked it up at the time.  Lamar has also only won 1 playoff game and their backup was a fumble 6 at the goal line from winning the playoff game IIRC too.  Miami was the 2 seed almost all year and flirting with the 1 seed.  They ended as the 6th seed wildcard and will likely be 1 and done again too.  Anything can happen.  I still believe the Ravens team wins more games than the Bills team with backup QBs in a full season.

Difference in scoring with and without Lamar by year:

2019: -5.5 points per game without him

2020: -16.3 PPG

2021: -15.3 PPG

2022: -12.5 PPG

2023: -19.6 PPG

 

Should note 2019, 2020, and 2023 were only one game without Lamar, but there's obviously still a major difference in 2021/2022 where he missed 10 games entirely and played a handful of snaps in 2 others.

 

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Ravens are 1-3 in the playoffs with Lamar.  900 yards, 55% completion, 3 TD and 5 INT, 5 fumbles.  His last game was 3 years ago. 

 

I know all that. That wasn't relevant to my point. 

[DapperCam]

On 1/8/2024 at 10:36 PM, BullBuchanan said:

It's still wild people are still arguing Allen was legitimately close here. He wasn't in the conversation by a mile and won't finish top 3 in voting. He may not even be top 4. I'd absolutely put Stroud over him.

Allen played 1 phenomenal quarter of football out of the last 12 and was largely awful for the rest of it. As far as high-end complete games, he had 4 maybe 5 and several of those were against weak teams. That's not MVP caliber.

All we needed from him yesterday was to not put us in a massive hole, which he did. Then we needed him to be superman to pull us out of it - which he did. How many accolades should a guy get who repeatedly does that when a pedestrian game management QB would have been good enough to completely roll the opponent?

Our defense holds the highest scoring and top yardage team in the league to 14 points - including none int he 2nd half and somehow we call Allen the hero.

I think you’re wrong. I think he’ll finish 2nd in voting, but I guess we’ll see.

[julian]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I know all that. That wasn't relevant to my point. 

Still pretty horrible for a 2 time MVP you gotta admit.

[C.Biscuit97]

On 1/9/2024 at 10:33 AM, Scott7975 said:

 

Dude, he had over 400 yards of offense and 79% completion rating and was responsible for most of those yards.  Dude made some key throws and kept our offense on the field all game long. He did this while being under pressure most of the game.  Miami blitzed at like a 40% rate and got home quite a bit.  Not just with one guy but multiple guys.  This might have been the worst game this oline has played.  Our running game wasn't doing ***** either if it wasn't Allen. The dude made some incredible throws in all that pressure.

We scored 14 points without their 3 best pass rushers. This is after lack luster efforts against the Chargers and Pats. 
 

allen is amazing. But let’s stop pretending like this is some well oil machine and the turnovers aren’t hurting us. 

4 minutes ago, julian said:

Still pretty horrible for a 2 time MVP you gotta admit.

A lot of good qbs suck early in the playoffs. Elway didn’t win a SB until he was like 38. But Lamar has a ton of pressure on him this playoffs. It’s still a regular season award. 
 

 

59 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Difference in scoring with and without Lamar by year:

2019: -5.5 points per game without him

2020: -16.3 PPG

2021: -15.3 PPG

2022: -12.5 PPG

2023: -19.6 PPG

 

Should note 2019, 2020, and 2023 were only one game without Lamar, but there's obviously still a major difference in 2021/2022 where he missed 10 games entirely and played a handful of snaps in 2 others.

 

People who say a backup could do as good as Lamar are flat out liars.

[Scott7975]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

allen is amazing. But let’s stop pretending like this is some well oil machine and the turnovers aren’t hurting us. 

 

I never said anything about being a well oiled machine.  The offense has had problems.  Some of that is on Allen.  Some of it is on everyone else.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, julian said:

Still pretty horrible for a 2 time MVP you gotta admit.

 

Yes, but again, not relevant to the conversation I was having. 

[julian]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We scored 14 points without their 3 best pass rushers. This is after lack luster efforts against the Chargers and Pats. 
 

allen is amazing. But let’s stop pretending like this is some well oil machine and the turnovers aren’t hurting us. 

A lot of good qbs suck early in the playoffs. Elway didn’t win a SB until he was like 38. But Lamar has a ton of pressure on him this playoffs. It’s still a regular season award. 
 

 

People who say a backup could do as good as Lamar are flat out liars.

I’m talking about the playoff numbers he has and less about the record, but I totally agree some players have taken a few go around before finding their playoff success.

 

 I think Lamar is an amazing athlete and an excellent QB, I’m just waiting for him to put it together in the playoffs to put him in Mahomes/Allen stratosphere.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

 

This chart is interesting.... if I am reading it right it says the Bills EPA is pretty good and that Josh produces strongly against it. The second half of that is not particularly a surprise, cos Josh is incredible. I am surprises that the Bills offense has the third highest EPA though. No surprised that the 49ers is the best, they have Kyle Shanahan but it suggests the Bills overall offensive efficiency has been better that one might imagine. 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This chart is interesting.... if I am reading it right it says the Bills EPA is pretty good and that Josh produces strongly against it. The second half of that is not particularly a surprise, cos Josh is incredible. I am surprises that the Bills offense has the third highest EPA though. No surprised that the 49ers is the best, they have Kyle Shanahan but it suggests the Bills overall offensive efficiency has been better that one might imagine. 

 

I'm not really a big EPA or even PFF guy but when I see these charts on twitter I try to post them here because I know some are big on EPA and such.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I'm not really a big EPA or even PFF guy but when I see these charts on twitter I try to post them here because I know some are big on EPA and such.

 

I'm not a big EPA guy either so I might be misinterpreting the chart haha. 

[DCOrange]

I also think re: Lamar's playoff struggles, some context is needed. He was inarguably bad in his playoff debut as a rookie; no argument there. His second playoff game, he was a sophomore and put up a total of 508 yards while his receivers dropped more passes in one game than you might see in half a season from a normal team, some of which directly led to turnovers and points off the board. He certainly made some mistakes in that game (including a laughably bad fumble) but it was similar to a lot of Josh Allen's good games where he turns it over but does so much else that it outweighs the bad. It just so happens that in this game, Lamar's WRs dropped all of the passes that would have made up for the bad. Lamar was legitimately good in his 3rd start and then we shut Baltimore down the following week.

 

I'd say he's been good in 2 of his 4 playoff games. Certainly nowhere near the god-like level that Allen reached a couple years ago, but I think Lamar is miscast as a playoff choker when it's really as simple as he struggled as a rookie (like the vast majority of QBs do) and has generally been let down by the dreadful playmakers around him. He still doesn't have a good group around him this year, but it's by far the best he's ever had. He's at least throwing to NFL caliber players now instead of a washed up Willie Snead, Crabtree, Seth Roberts, etc. (and his defense has been tremendous this season which should help too).

Edited January 10 by DCOrange

[BullBuchanan]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

2021 Allen???? Dude... did you actually watch the Bills in 2021???

 

Oh... and I call your bluff... I think it would really get under your skin if Allen wins MVP.

Of course I did. I've missed one game since 1990.

Why would it get under my skin? He's one of my favorite players on my favorite team. I'm  rooting for the guy to be his best self every play of every game. Just because he disappoints me, doesn't mean I don't like him.

Edited January 10 by BullBuchanan

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, julian said:

I’m talking about the playoff numbers he has and less about the record, but I totally agree some players have taken a few go around before finding their playoff success.

 

 I think Lamar is an amazing athlete and an excellent QB, I’m just waiting for him to put it together in the playoffs to put him in Mahomes/Allen stratosphere.

Agree with this 100%. I do think him being a 2 time MVP this early is a little crazy but this was a flawed year. 
 

but if people think Allen gets criticized, they should look at Lamar. Heisman trophy winner who some thought should switch poo. If they flame out this year, he will get absolutely crushed. 

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I never said anything about being a well oiled machine.  The offense has had problems.  Some of that is on Allen.  Some of it is on everyone else.

 

 

 

I don’t think any reasonable person disagrees with that. 

[Alphadawg7]

12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Exactly. It's been this way for a while, though Allen was starting to be mentioned in some peoples' top 5 candidates after the Cowboys & KC games. But for some reason, people want to pretend the turnover narrative doesn't linger hard, especially among other fanbases.

 

I've noticed a lot that there's been way more anti-Allen backlash the last 1/4 of the season too. Any time you see a segment with an analyst or athlete talk positively about him, half the responses are insulting Allen's turnovers & awareness, or comparing him to their own QBs they feel don't get as much credit as Josh.

 

I just read a comment under Cowherd's video praising Allen after the fins game, saying something like "I'm sure if Dak had 8 more TDs but 12 more turnovers, the media would grease him up like they do Allen!" and it had nearly 1,000 likes. People can roll their eyes all they want, but that's not an outlier, that's the reality outside of Bills fans now.

 

Also, the MVP system is broken IMHO.  It's too influenced by recency bias where you can steal or lose the MVP in the final weeks of the season erasing everything that happened prior to that.  Lamar will win it, but his entire season isn't the most impressive over several other guys, he just had the biggest 2 weeks of his season as his last 2 games while the other candidates either had a bad week/loss (Purdy, McCaffrey, etc) or may have won but not in an impressive fashion like Allen.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

As I mentioned earlier, I think the end of year vote weighs too much on recency bias with the end games and overlooks the bulk of the season.  Here is a thread about some alternate ideas on how to handle the MVP race

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not a big EPA guy either so I might be misinterpreting the chart haha. 

that chart is for QBs, where Allen is third in EPA/dropback behind Purdy and Dak

 

the Bills offense is 2nd overall in EPA

 

these stats can be found here https://www.nfeloapp.com/

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I know all that. That wasn't relevant to my point. 

 

We  all agree that the Ravens are dependent on Jackson for success--true for any team with a top 5 or 10 QB.

 

"Lamar is pretty critical to the Ravens results."

 

This is also true in the postseason.  Allen's Bills are 4-4 but his performance is an order of magnitude better than Jackson's, overall.

[UKBillFan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

As I mentioned earlier, I think the end of year vote weighs too much on recency bias with the end games and overlooks the bulk of the season.  Here is a thread about some alternate ideas on how to handle the MVP race

 

 

 

Whereas the Pro Bowl is opposite - IIRC it takes into account less than two thirds of the season at the point the vote opens (after week ten). I mean, still over a third of the season left and people can vote on who's been best throughout the season? The end results each year speaks volumes about the stupidity behind that.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Also, the MVP system is broken IMHO.  It's too influenced by recency bias where you can steal or lose the MVP in the final weeks of the season erasing everything that happened prior to that.  Lamar will win it, but his entire season isn't the most impressive over several other guys, he just had the biggest 2 weeks of his season as his last 2 games while the other candidates either had a bad week/loss (Purdy, McCaffrey, etc) or may have won but not in an impressive fashion like Allen.  

 

 

 

 

 

At the same point, Lamar and the Ravens have been the most consistent team all year. They take leads early and just win games. I can’t definitely see Allen having worst td numbers, cutting down on turnovers, and winning the MVP.