Bills dead last in goal-line EPA/play last year(inside the 3 yard line) - Warren Sharp analysis

[Big Turk]

Great read...

 

It hasn't been the goal-line runs, they have actually been +0.22 EPA/Play.  Interestingly and surprisingly, the problem has been Allen's passing at the goal-line.

 

Josh Allen goal line efficiency rankings over last 2 years(ranking is out of 26 qualifiers):

• #26 in EPA/play (-0.95)
• #25 in success rate (31%)
• #25 in YPA (0.4)
• #23 in completion rate (35%)

 

What if we include scrambles?

 

Including scrambles, the only QB worse on an EPA/play basis at the goal line was Taylor Heinicke.

As a team, one of 32, the Bills rank near the bottom in several important metrics.

 

Bills goal line efficiency rankings:

• #30 in EPA/dropback, ahead of only the Commanders and Bears
• #30 in success rate, ahead of only the Commanders and Steelers
• #32 in early down EPA/dropback

 

Josh Allen's time to throw at the goal-line is 3.14 seconds(3rd longest)...league average is 2.41 seconds. Mahomes is 2.22 seconds.

His completion rate at the goal-line is only 34.6%, 4th worst in the NFL. Mahomes is best in the NFL at 77.6% 

 

If Allen wants to take the next step, this seems like a prime area he should be focused on...

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/bills-josh-allen-goal-line-struggles-offense-nfl/

[JerseyBills]

We need better concepts. 

 

Mahomes for example usually has his 1st read open for easy TD because of creativity and play calling 

 

Gotta get easy dump offs to RBs and TEs down there. Plus, teams knew we'd rarely run our rbs down there, that should and needs to change as well 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

We need better concepts. 

 

Mahomes for example usually has his 1st read open for easy TD because of creativity and play calling 

 

Gotta get easy dump offs to RBs and TEs down there. Plus, teams knew we'd rarely run our rbs down there, that should and needs to change as well 

 

If I was Dorsey I would have spent the entire off-season looking at the 5 best teams at the goal-line and basically taking plays from them to put in. Those rankings are abysmal and it's really inexcusable considering how effective the Bills are on offense everywhere else.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Big Turk

[Pirate Angel]

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

[Big Turk]

Just now, Pirate Angel said:

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

We need better concepts. 

 

Mahomes for example usually has his 1st read open for easy TD because of creativity and play calling 

 

Gotta get easy dump offs to RBs and TEs down there. Plus, teams knew we'd rarely run our rbs down there, that should and needs to change as well 

This- OL play also weighs in heavily but I’d put the majority of our red zone struggles on the concepts

[dorquemada]

This matches the eye test, i even said it to my son last year, that they were generally more successful from the 10-20 yard line than the 2.  I dont know if that's factual but it's how it felt.

[BillsShredder83]

I think there are a lot of explanations for this, a lot or it indirectly being caused by lack of run game. I think we addressed this with Harris and Murray. Bulking up the OL.

 

At the same time Josh had some very uncharacteristic turnovers from there (Maybe they weren't all inside the 3, but a few were).

 

I stand by i think Josh was concussed in GB game on the play at goal line his head snapped back. Add the UCL thing almost immediately after that. I think we go back to being an awesome red zone team.

[Fleezoid]

1 minute ago, Pirate Angel said:

No threat of a running game probably factors into this. 

 

And lack of big receivers other than Knox. A lot of teams have a guy that you can just toss it up and they get up and get it. 

[Pirate Angel]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's simply not true, the Bills ran the ball pretty well down at the goalline as stated in the article and in my initial post.

It says they werent the primary problem...indicating they where a problem. No defense lined up worried about our running game, play action is huge at the goal line Singletary is slow and our Oline was average. 

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I think there are a lot of explanations for this, a lot or it indirectly being caused by lack of run game. I think we addressed this with Harris and Murray. Bulking up the OL.

 

At the same time Josh had some very uncharacteristic turnovers from there (Maybe they weren't all inside the 3, but a few were).

 

I stand by i think Josh was concussed in GB game on the play at goal line his head snapped back. Add the UCL thing almost immediately after that. I think we go back to being an awesome red zone team.

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

[Big Turk]

Just now, Pirate Angel said:

It says they werent the primary problem...indicating they where a problem. No defense lined up worried about our running game, play action is huge at the goal line Singletary is slow and our Oline was average. 

 

It is irrelevant to play-action's success rate as to how well you run the ball.  

Just now, Araiza Curse said:

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

 

In the clips that were shown, outside of the one turfed throw to McKenzie in the Fins game, none of those receivers looked open at all, which explains why he was holding the ball so long...Dorsey needs to be doing copious film study on successful offenses at the goal-line and their play designs and copy them.  There really isn't an excuse as to why the Bills are so bad down there.

3 minutes ago, Pirate Angel said:

It says they werent the primary problem...indicating they where a problem. No defense lined up worried about our running game, play action is huge at the goal line Singletary is slow and our Oline was average. 

 

They were 12th best success rate on runs down there at 64%, meaning they were above average.

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It is irrelevant to play-action's success rate as to how well you run the ball.  

 

In the clips that were shown, outside of the one turfed throw to McKenzie in the Fins game, none of those receivers looked open at all, which explains why he was holding the ball so long...Dorsey needs to be doing copious film study on successful offenses at the goal-line and their play designs and copy them.  There really isn't an excuse as to why the Bills are so bad down there.

This is the first year I signed up for the all 22 film. I plan on doing extensive breakdowns during the year and especially during the next offseason. 

[julian]

Love all those Mahomes underhanded up the middle 3 yard TD shovel passes… Stud

[947]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Love all those Mahomes underhanded up the middle 3 yard TD shovel passes… Stud

Yep, I'd bet at least half of Mahomes' TDs from the 3yd line are the variety where they travel about 12 inches in the air. To a guy with a wide open lane to walk into the endzone. That's scheme, we need more scheming guys open this year.

[Pirate Angel]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It is irrelevant to play-action's success rate as to how well you run the ball.  

 

In the clips that were shown, outside of the one turfed throw to McKenzie in the Fins game, none of those receivers looked open at all, which explains why he was holding the ball so long...Dorsey needs to be doing copious film study on successful offenses at the goal-line and their play designs and copy them.  There really isn't an excuse as to why the Bills are so bad down there.

 

They were 12th best success rate on runs down there at 64%, meaning they were above average.

Its irrelevant?? If youre playing Derrick Henry you arent going to give him any more attention than Devin Singletary? Your linebackers aren't more likely to take a step forward? Its completely relevant. 

Above Average when defenses don't need to key on you isn't above average...Having no confidence for your coaching staff to commit to a run isn't Above Average. 

[Capco]

23 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

It is irrelevant to play-action's success rate as to how well you run the ball.  

I've always wondered if this were actually the case but I've never seen the analysis done.   Interesting.  

EDIT:  Ha.  There's even a line on Wikipedia's "Play-action pass" entry about the running game being irrelevant, and this is what they cite in support of that statement:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

Edited August 16, 2023 by Capco

[Virgil]

Upgrades at the Guard position and power runners will help.  Not because we had bad run stats, but this new lineup will force defenses to line up differently.

 

But agreed on the play calling overall.  KC was masterful at getting RB's out in space

[Airseven]

Does this include his bumbled sneaks or just passing?

[BillsShredder83]

35 minutes ago, Araiza Curse said:

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

"Despite having more time than average"

 

Hugeeeee asterisk here. Josh flying around like Superman from pressure from the middle and off the right side, hardly counts as more time, in my book

[BananaB]

33 minutes ago, Araiza Curse said:

Did you guys read the article? The running game wasn’t the issue on the goaline. It was Josh’s inability to find an open man despite having much longer time than Mahomes. Dorsey either needs to get more creative, but or Allen needs to put more work in to being better with this part of the game. 

Is it that he has more time or is it that Mahommes gets the ball out very quick because of play design. When I watch the offense it’s like the decision is made pre snap, there is one read and it’s almost always open. Bills got guys running all over yhe endzone snd Allen gotta find an open guy in a smaller area with more defenders. 

[BCAS Baritone]

9 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

"Despite having more time than average"

 

Hugeeeee asterisk here. Josh flying around like Superman from pressure from the middle and off the right side, hardly counts as more time, in my book

It also means Josh can't just take the snap and throw.  Down there you get a very small window when a guy is open - then it closes because there are defenders all over the place in the end zone.  There are plenty of plays inside the 5 where Josh takes 7 or 8 seconds to throw it.  Either the first read wasn't open or there was no chance to go to the first read because he already had to duck pressure.

[BillsShredder83]

26 minutes ago, Capco said:

I've always wondered if this were actually the case but I've never seen the analysis done.   Interesting.  

EDIT:  Ha.  There's even a line on Wikipedia's "Play-action pass" entry about the running game being irrelevant, and this is what they cite in support of that statement:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

This seems like a well thought out study, but it's too long to read and I can't buy into it.

 

Out of the gate, it's going to effect what personnel the defense puts out. Any study that starts off by ignoring the effect of a linebacker vs extra DB on the field, is incredibly flawed. Add in variables like audibles at the line, and there's already 2 too many variables to give this study credibility.... but that's just me.... and well, 32 franchises entire histories lol

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 Buffalo was far more of a big play scoring offense last year. Take week 5 against the Steelers & week 6 at KC as an example. They scored 8 tds between the 2 games and the shortest td of the 8 was Knox's 14 yard, game winning catch against the Chiefs.

 

 They had tds of 14, 15, 17, 24, 24, 34, 62 & 98 yards. All, but Cook's 24 yard rushing td against the Steelers, were Allen td passes.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

It is concepts but it is also Josh just feeling comfortable and executing better. I feel like sometimes he has got happy feet there and he has to be better at the back foot hits ball out stuff.

[WotAGuy]

Josh leads the league in TDs thrown from within 4 inches of the sideline. They’re fine.  

[BillsShredder83]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is concepts but it is also Josh just feeling comfortable and executing better. I feel like sometimes he has got happy feet there and he has to be better at the back foot hits ball out stuff.

To an extent, even when he does have the time, do you think it's him knowing the lines track record and expecting to have to get out of dodge, before that first read.

 

Regardless it is a scheme problem to me. If Josh isn't confident he'll be clean till his first read opens, seems like they need to set up something quicker developing.

[AuntieEm]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

We need better concepts. 

 

Mahomes for example usually has his 1st read open for easy TD because of creativity and play calling 

 

Gotta get easy dump offs to RBs and TEs down there. Plus, teams knew we'd rarely run our rbs down there, that should and needs to change as well 

   I am expecting that torrence is gonna shine here opening up a easy lane for any of our backs.

[Chaos]

40 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

"Despite having more time than average"

 

Hugeeeee asterisk here. Josh flying around like Superman from pressure from the middle and off the right side, hardly counts as more time, in my book

The correct conclusion “no one could get open despite Allen extending plays longer than anyone in the NFL”

Put Travis Kelce and Andy Reid on the team and Allen becomes #1 on the list

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Great read...

 

It hasn't been the goal-line runs, they have actually been +0.22 EPA/Play.  Interestingly and surprisingly, the problem has been Allen's passing at the goal-line.

 

Josh Allen goal line efficiency rankings over last 2 years(ranking is out of 26 qualifiers):

• #26 in EPA/play (-0.95)
• #25 in success rate (31%)
• #25 in YPA (0.4)
• #23 in completion rate (35%)

 

What if we include scrambles?

 

Including scrambles, the only QB worse on an EPA/play basis at the goal line was Taylor Heinicke.

As a team, one of 32, the Bills rank near the bottom in several important metrics.

 

Bills goal line efficiency rankings:

• #30 in EPA/dropback, ahead of only the Commanders and Bears
• #30 in success rate, ahead of only the Commanders and Steelers
• #32 in early down EPA/dropback

 

Josh Allen's time to throw at the goal-line is 3.14 seconds(3rd longest)...league average is 2.41 seconds. Mahomes is 2.22 seconds.

His completion rate at the goal-line is only 34.6%, 4th worst in the NFL. Mahomes is best in the NFL at 77.6% 

 

If Allen wants to take the next step, this seems like a prime area he should be focused on...

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/bills-josh-allen-goal-line-struggles-offense-nfl/

I’d venture the time to throw is him scrambling and creating instead of having creative play design and decisive targets to use ala mahomes. 
 

hopefully an extra red zone target in Kincaid, and Dorsey having a year to work on new packages helps. 

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is concepts but it is also Josh just feeling comfortable and executing better. I feel like sometimes he has got happy feet there and he has to be better at the back foot hits ball out stuff.

And he had that bad run after no interceptions in the red zone forever to start his career. Had to get him a little jittery down there last year. 
 

plus injury effecting him both running and passing potentially 

 

hopefully this improves in 23-24

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

Is it that he has more time or is it that Mahommes gets the ball out very quick because of play design. When I watch the offense it’s like the decision is made pre snap, there is one read and it’s almost always open. Bills got guys running all over yhe endzone snd Allen gotta find an open guy in a smaller area with more defenders. 

To be honest, I do not know. This will be the first year I have access to the all 22s. Now I can do deeper analysis to try and assume root causes. While it will never be 100% due to not knowing the intricacies of the play design. 

[peterpan]

Enough with the acronyms!!!! Wtf does epa mean!?!?!?

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, peterpan said:

Enough with the acronyms!!!! Wtf does epa mean!?!?!?

Environmental protection agency 

[AuntieEm]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

We need better concepts. 

 

Mahomes for example usually has his 1st read open for easy TD because of creativity and play calling 

 

Gotta get easy dump offs to RBs and TEs down there. Plus, teams knew we'd rarely run our rbs down there, that should and needs to change as well 

 

  I have no way of knowing this is fact it is only my own opinion but I believe all the Josh MvP five last year had him get a bit revved up into sugar high Josh in red zone. Do we know when he a united into a successful running play or if a play got blown up bec as use protection broke down.   And cannot fault line giving him as much tiecas he had.  He h a s to make better playcslls if he was audibling out or if he wasn't changing play based on defense looks.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, peterpan said:

Enough with the acronyms!!!! Wtf does epa mean!?!?!?

 

 

Another one is that "google search" thing.   Wtf is that and why would I type something into it?

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, peterpan said:

Enough with the acronyms!!!! Wtf does epa mean!?!?!?

 

"Expected Points Added (EPA) is a measure of success which defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score. For every play, EPA is attributed equally to both teams, and the metric is fairly reliable in identifying the best teams in football."

 

 

[TheBrownBear]

Poor schemes, no decent power RB, lack of a reliable big bodied target and Josh holding it too long/decision making all played a role in this.  Let's hope Dorsey and Josh have found solutions to get that goal-line engine humming again.

[artmalibu]

Heard this on the radio today, and thought the O is awful.... 

 

5th in over all TDs....

[Goin Breakdown]

I see some talking about the lack of run game. Maybe, idk, but I have to wonder if anyone was worried about KC's run game. Respect it, sure, but it's their passing game that teams

fear. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

5 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

Heard this on the radio today, and thought the O is awful.... 

 

5th in over all TDs....

 

  But.....3rd in tds per game, everyone in front of them played 17 games. Also they finished 2nd in points per game.

 

 The O was not awful, they justed scored more tds on the longer side & fewer tds on the shorter side than recent years. Exact same ppg as 2021, but more ypg in 2022 vs 2021.